18-12 Portland at 16-16 Utah

Portland has beaten Utah twice in the last 13 games...both times without LaMarcus Aldridge. Tonight they will have another obstacle...Coach McMillan will not be at the game. If I thought he would ever read a humble piece like this I would extend my condolences to him. Tough time of year for something like that.

With that said, a lot of people expect Portland to win this game. They are red hot and Utah is ice cold, having lost 2 straight and just 3-11 in the last 14 games. In addition, Utah is a team in disarray. They traded Giricek for Kyle Korver after the latest blow-up between Sloan and a player. That is a help to Portland as it removes another zone-busting shooter from the Jazz line-up.

But it does not solve a couple of their other problems. First off, Carlos Boozer feasts on the Blazers...he is a beast inside. He seems to have his way, scoring and rebounding almost at will. Unfortunately for Portland, Aldridge is struggling a lot right now, so an already bad match-up gets worse. Deron Williams is the tough type of point guard for Portland as he is excellent at penetrating at will, creating havoc for the Blazers' zone.

If Roy continues his outstanding play, Webster, Jones, and Outlaw are all hitting their shots, and Aldridge snaps out of his funk the Blazers will hit 14. I think it somewhat more likely that they will find that all good things come to an end as Utah remembers they are Utah and regains their winning ways. I really hope not, I seriously dislike them, but this has all the earmarks of one of those games where Portland ends one run...but they will win many more this season.

Philadelphia 72, Portland 97

Early in the season there was a game I fearlessly predicted, "Portland is a much better team than Philadelphia and should win. If they do not, for whatever reason, then the road struggles will become a thousand pound gorilla and they will struggle on the road for the rest of the season. Conversely, if they win...as they should...then that will build their confidence and lead to a few road wins this season, which they will need to reach their post-season berth which I expect for them.

This is one of those rare nights where if Portland plays an average game, they win by a lot. If they implode, they should still win, just it will be close. They are that much better than the 76ers.Portland by 10+

Everything was in place. Portland was up by 25 at one point. They led by 17 going into the 4th quarter. They were on their way to winning that game. Fresh off the confidence-builder of their win, they would then beat Washington and Charlotte on the road, come home and close it out against New Jersey and be on a huge run. They would have been in the thick, believe it or not, at that point of the division race.

But we all know what happened. Portland had one of those young-team collapses. They gave back all 17 points and more, lost that game, and went into a swoon where they did, indeed, sweep the remainder of the road trip...except they did it in reverse, lost to a bad New Jersey team and the season looked like it was going down the tubes.

Of course, starting with Travis "Charles" Outlaw's game-winner against Memphis, they returned to being the team I thought they were. They have run off 12 straight coming into this game which should be a "revenge game" where a high-flying Blazers squad runs a bad 76ers team off the court.

They finished the first quarter with a 7-2 run to take a 21-16 lead. The rout was on...except then something happened. Philadelphia went on a 16-2 run of their own to close out the second quarter and go into the break with a 45-36 lead. Portland was on the verge of being blown out themselves in a game they should win and win handily. It is a game they should have been "up" for and been blowing out the 76ers. Now they were down 9 and heading into the 3rd quarter, a season-long bug-a-boo. Portland needed someone to step up.

Enter Roy, Blake and Aldridge. Aldridge scored early, Blake hit a pair of 3s and a short jumper and Roy added 9 points. Portland closed to within 63-62 after 3 and were entering their time.

During their win streak...yes, and even before...the 4th quarter has been their time. During the losing streak they often would make up huge deficits but just fall short after digging too big a hole in the 3rd quarter. During the win streak they have played the 3rd close and won in the 4th. This night they played the 3rd well and won the 4th, and not by a little bit.

They scored the first 18 led by Outlaw scoring 7 of the first 10. they never let up. Their offense was explosive (35) and their defense the best they have offered this season (9). This was the intensity I expected much earlier in the game.

And it was that magic 13th game...the last in the best win streak Portland has put together in quite some time. It has been fun to watch and there will be plenty more wins this year...I just don't think I see the next one coming again in Utah.

Minnesota 98, Portland 109

This is the game Portland needed to play. They came out early, building a 6 point first quarter lead...then winning the second quarter as well. The third quarter, such a trouble spot for so long, again was kind, giving them a tie and then Portland won the 4th quarter.

This is a big step. So often this season Portland has played down to the level of their competition or they have built a lead and then relaxed. That led, earlier in the season, to disaster. No longer.

Aldridge rebounded nicely, shooting 9-17, snagging 8 boards, blocking a couple of shots...he did not come out pressing, in fact, after making the first shot of the game he went 5 minutes before taking another, picking up an assist off an offensive rebound, pass to Przybilla for a dunk and turning the ball over. In other words, he played a team game.

The entire Portland team played a team game. They ended up with 6 players in double figures led by the 22 of Roy and 21 of Aldridge. They shot 49%, out rebounded Minnesota 47-32, blocked 6 shots and only had 12 turnovers. That is the solid type of performance they should lay on a bad team like Minnesota.

McCants and Jefferson got their points, Gomes provided some help but everyone else Portland held in check.

On a side note, Webster had another off game offensively, going just 2-8 from the field. He did help in other areas, though, bringing down 4 boards and adding 3 assists. I am hoping he gets his game going a bit more consistently soon. On the bright side, on a night they really did not have to have his shooting and scoring he was not pressing but for the season to deliver on its promise they are going to need him to develop some consistency.

Meanwhile, the roll keeps going.

4-23 Minnesota at 16-12 Portland

Minnesota is abominable at home (3-13) and worse on the road (1-10). They play to the speed of their opponents, are out manned every night, and have some of their better players (Randy Foye, acquired from Portland for some stiff named Brandon Roy...) out injured. They have lost something like 9 out of 10 games.

Portland, meanwhile, is on a roll, having won 11 straight including multiple wins over teams that were considered the divisions' best when the season started (Utah and Denver). By no stretch of the imagination should this be considered winnable for a bad, bad Minnesota team against a Portland team that is starting to look like an above average team.

Except...

There it is. I have become a doubter. I am going to outline the way this could become a "trap game" for Portland. Do I think it will happen? No. But I do see the possibility if several things happen.

First off, we all know how much Aldridge loves to play and how disappointed he was with his performance against the Supersonics. So he, being a young player, might come out pressing. That tends to lead to turnovers, missed shots, squandered possessions, and a stalled offense that simultaneously creates numerous extra scoring options for the opposition.

Second, this is the return to Portland of Sebastian Telfair. He has had flashes, brilliant games such as his 28 point, 11 assist performance in the Timberwolf win over the Pacers last week. He might still be motivated to prove Portland erred in giving up on him.

Third, Theo Ratliffe still has the potential to dominate a game defensively. If Portland is driving a lot and he is turning back shot after shot it could get ugly quickly.

Finally, Antoine Walker can still explode from time to time.

Now, I do think these circumstances are unlikely. I believe Portland is too talented, has too much leadership, poise, and the coaching is too good for them to overlook Minnesota. I do not believe Aldridge is a selfish player who will look for personal "redemption" at the cost of the team. Nor do I believe he needs redemption. He has contributed far more to many Blazer wins than any struggles he encounters will cause them difficulty. Everyone has an occasional bad game, the key is to just play his game and let it come to him.

That is one benefit of having a guy like Brandon Roy around. He had his own struggles earlier in the season and seems to have bounced back okay...

In the long run, the most likely outcome is a Portland win by blow-out. It will provide a pretty clear illustration of one thing; who the true league MVP is.

Huh? The guy who SHOULD win the MVP will not be playing in this game. However, a quick look at 3 teams will show what I mean.

The first team is the Knicks. Last year they had a TON of shooting power in their back court between Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis. Where did it get them? There is a reason the Knicks were looking to buy out Francis and why Marbury has become persona non gratis this year. Shooters are nice...but they are complementary.

The second team is Minnesota. They were not great by any standard of measure, finishing with the same 32-50 record as Portland did. Yet they have some nice pieces in place. They have a penetrating point guard in Telfair, they have complementary scoring available in Antoine Walker (though his averages are down he is still a capable scorer), and a talented front court player in Al Jefferson (20 points, 12 rebounds per contest). Yet they cannot win.

Then you have Boston. They have had 2 scorers before...remember when Pierce and Walker were throwing in 25 a night? Boston was stinking up the league. Boston with Allen and Pierce is New York from last year...a team where on any given night one or both stud scorers can get hot and almost single-handedly win the game but just as often will have "average" nights, not get help, and lose the game.

Boston with Allen, Pierce and Garnett? Pure gold. All aspersions on their schedule aside, Boston has done what other teams with "soft" schedules have not done...they have won those games. They are not losing games they are supposed to win. What is the difference between the below average, 2 scorer Knicks of last year, the average T-wolves of last year as compared to the pathetic Minnesota 5 of this year, and the bad Boston Pierce-Walker teams of a few years ago and the title contenders of this year?

Kevin Garnett. It is not just his scoring and rebounding...Al Jefferson has numbers nearly as good as he had with Minnesota last year. It is his presence...he facilitates other things happening. He plays great team defense. He passes. He takes over games when needed. He makes the difference between a team with 2 or 3 scorers that loses a lot and a team that could contend for a title. And that is the definition of an MVP. He makes everyone better, makes an okay team great.

Here is a fearless prediction: Minnesota will miss him in the Friday game. Portland will blow them out.

Another reason to love the 2007-2007 edition

I have been a big LaMarcus Aldridge fan since he came on board. I know I sound like a broken record...big Brandon Roy fan, big Martell Webster fan, big Travis Outlaw fan, big Jarrett Jack fan, big Joel Przybilla fan, becoming a big James Jones fan...but that is just one more thing to love about the Blazers. So many players to like. Aldridge is one more example. Last year I was hopeful he would get a few more minutes. This year I was ecstatic to see him not just starting but playing major minutes and being a focal point of the offense. It looks like he might develop into a 20+ points, 9 or 10 rebound guy in the coming years and be fun to watch. Best of all, he loves to play and it shows. He often has a big grin on his face even during the game and that is awesome to watch from a fan perspective.

In fact, the main issue I have with him is sometimes he is not aggressive enough with his offense. He does not demand the ball when the Blazers need a bucket or early in the game to establish himself. Even on nights where he misses his first shot or 2, he needs to demand the ball and make a move. It creates that possibility in the opposition's mind that he might be laying 25 on them and they have to adjust their defense. It opens the floor a bit for penetration by the guards and creates movement opportunities. Perhaps most important, it keeps him involved in the game. For all that, I think the other night when he did none of this is a prime example of why he is rapidly becoming one of my all-time favorite Portland Trailblazers.

The other night against a bad Seattle team, though they had nobody who could really stay with him, he started slowly. His first shot was missed, his second was a rebound shot...and then he disappeared. It was probably the worst game I have ever seen him play. He shot horribly (1-10), missed both free throws, had a low rebound total, did not block any shots, make any of his normal hustle plays on defense...on this one night he did not look like a good player, even though I have been arguing all year he is on the cusp of being a great player who can dominate in this league. In fact, he was not on the floor for the Blazers' stretch run despite it being a game that could have been lost with one good Seattle run.

So what is there to like about that? I am going to argue it was his reaction that makes him special. Aldridge is no prima donna. He did not complain about McMillan keeping him on the bench. He did not point fingers at his team mates for not getting him the ball often enough or in the right places. He said nothing about his numbers. He just cheered from the bench....and then, after the game, he went to work on his shot to see what was wrong with it.

That is AWESOME. That is a player who loves to play and wants to improve. That is a player who is happy his team is winning and wants to do his part, whatever that part is, to keep them on the winning track. That is a MAN in a league of sometimes spoiled children. That is a great teammate in a league full of Stephon Marburys, Allen Iversons, Kobe Bryants (although that one might be a cheap shot this year...he is passing a bit more...).

I love the mentality that he is not going to complain when he has a bad game, he is not going to argue with the coaches, he is not going to cry about it...he is just going to cheer on his teammates and then go to work to improve. I don't think it will be too much longer before you see his name in the All-Star line-up. Not this year...but that time is coming.

Seattle 79, Portland 89

On their first offensive possession the Blazers had 5 (five) offensive rebounds. Blake finally hit a jumper but a lot of tones were already set. First off, it was going to be a horrific shooting night all the way around. Second, Aldridge was going to struggle. Third...Portland was not going to be beat.



I kind of think the first issue was a given from the pre-game. They were not taking the shoot-around serious, were just goofing around and having fun. This can be interpreted several ways. One positive way would be they were loose and having fun. A less promising one would be they were not taking the Sonics seriously. I would argue the latter. There was one key sequence in the first possession that showed it. Aldridge grabbed a tough board...and then took the first shot I have ever seen him take that looked like he was goofing around. His effort on that one looked like one of those shots players take after a foul where they effortlessly flick the ball in the general direction of the basket to see what happens. And he missed it horribly.



That was the start of a long, rough night for Aldridge. Portland was not looking for him and he was not looking for his offense. The result was that when Portland finally did go to him he was out of the flow and not really ready. He ended up with the worst game I have seen him play, 1-10 shooting, 2 points, 5 boards, and some of the most indifferent defense I have seen him play. It was very un-Aldridge like.



But people stepped up all night. 4 different people had 4 first quarter points, everyone was scrapping, Przybilla was dominating the boards, and Seattle was struggling to score as well.



Probably the key stretch in the game started with 2:45 to go in the first period and a 22-16 Seattle lead. It would be their biggest lead of the night. Portland closed the quarter with an 8-2 run to tie the game and came out firing in the second quarter as well. When Jack closed out another 10-4 run to open the second quarter, the overall run was 18-6 and the lead for Portland was 34-28...the same 6 point lead Seattle had possessed.



However, Seattle stopped going to Sczerbiak after he dropped in a run-killing 3 for his 15th point of the first half and they never really got Durant involved. That sounds strange when you realized he had 9 in the first half and 23 for the game...but for great portions of the game he was simply hanging out in the corner while the other 4 Sonics played ball.



I really have mixed emotions about that. He shot a fairly typical 8-20...but they were struggling to score. What is the point of freezing out Sczerbiak and Durant, your 2 best scorers? Run some plays for the guy...too many of his shots came when he created his own fast break, created the offensive rebound, or broken plays. Carlesimo needs to do a better coaching job.



While on the subject, I should briefly address the Webster situation. I am a big Martell Webster fan. He has, I believe, the potential to be a 15 - 18 point scorer with a decent shooting percentage. He can, when he wishes, be a force on the boards and over a season could average 6 - 7 if he wanted...and Portland certainly needs him to. He is a rugged, tenacious defender with the potential to become a very good defender.



However, too often he allows himself to get lost in the shuffle. Portland likes to set him up down in one corner, then run their offense, often on the other side of the floor. As a result, far too many of Webster's shots are A) 3s, B) contested 3s, C) scramble shots with no time and a hand in his face. He could learn a lot from James Jones.



Jones also often gets stuck down in the corner while Portland runs their offense, often on the other side of the floor. However, he makes some subtle adjustments that make him, at least at this point, a more dangerous scorer than Webster. Instead of standing stock-still in the corner, he moves around a bit.



It is not much...one play in particular shows the difference. He was in the right corner. Roy had the ball at the top of the key and was forced towards Jones' side. Jones took about 2 steps to his left, enough to move his defender, then juked a cut into the lane. Instead he drifted back to the corner. His defender was frozen for a split second, long enough for Roy to give it to Jones for the wide open 3 look.



Another time he was in the far left corner and the play was on the right side of the key. His defender turned his head for a half-second, James flashed to the hoop, Rodriguez found him and he threw it down. 5 of his 9 points on plays Webster does not make.



Webster needs to free himself up a little bit, move around to give the guards angles to get him the ball. He needs to take a few shots from closer to the basket. Then he will step up his game and help provide that third scorer in the starting line-up the Blazers need.



The third quarter has been a problem for Portland all year. They started with a 2 point lead. Normally, this means they will trail by 2 - 6 points after the third. Not this time. They came out rolling, building a commanding 16 point lead before losing their touch. They had a brief scoring drought that let the Sonics close within 8 at the close of the quarter. However, all year the 4th quarter has belonged to Portland and this was no exception. The only question was whether we would get chalupas. We did not. But Portland won, so it was a good Christmas game. Besides, when is it NOT fun to beat Seattle? Yeah, I can't think of a time either.

Denver 96, Portland 99

From time to time I have been highly critical of Allen Iverson as a guy who shoots too much for the percentage he shoots. Well, Friday he did it again. On the surface he had a really strong game, scoring 34 points. This time he took just 26 shots. And it was actually a useful 34 as his 12 free throws demonstrate he was drawing fouls and creating havoc for the Blazers defense. Anthony also had a very strong game with another 34 points and added a dozen boards. Had they gotten any help they would have won.

However, only one other Nugget could muster as much as 11 points and once you got past him they topped out at 5. This was a game where the stars did what they were supposed to do...and the role players did not show up.

On the other side of the court, the Blazers got good balance as 5 guys scored between 12 and 19 points. Aldridge and Roy had 18 each, though Roy struggled mightily from the field. However, Portland got a lot of help from their role players.

Outlaw struggled from the field but he made his free throws and had key blocks. Frye did not score a lot but he controlled the boards. Blake took just 2 shots, scoring 3 points, but he moved the ball and got the Blazers into their offense. Jones and Webster were efficient from the field.

In other words, though Roy and Iverson both had poor shooting games while Anthony and Aldridge were a bit better, the Blazer duo got help while the Nugget duo went it alone. That, in my eyes, backs up a bit further my ongoing critique of Iverson.

In his game, role players get used to standing around watching. With Roy, they are used to being needed and, more important, wanted. Guys like Outlaw know that even if they go 4-11 the Blazers need them to keep participating. The Nuggets had 2 guys with 26 shots, 2 guys with 8, and nobody else with more than 3. Iverson and Anthony completely dominate the ball. Meanwhile, for Portland there were 4 guys who took double figures shots, another with 7 and another with 6. It was a team game.

As Bryant discovered last year and Wilt Chamberlain discovered during his career, 1 or even 2 players having game after game where they and they alone are the offense, good TEAMS with no player able...or perhaps just not willing...to score with them will still beat them. Good team beats good individual play. And it crushes bad individual play.

This was not an example of bad play. With the number of 3s he shoots and the free throws he attempted, Iverson had a pretty good game. However, he never got other Nuggets involved and when crunch time came the Blazers were able to keep the ball out of his hands and in the hands of Kleiza who got his shot thrown back by Outlaw.

It is another good victory by Portland. Oh, and it pulled them within a half game of Denver for 1st place...