18-13 Portland @ 4-26 Minnesota

Someone, somewhere is saying, "Minnesota is better than their record". That someone is not me. They are every bit as bad as you would think a team with that record would be. Where to start?

Let's start in the back court. Sebastian Telfair was once the point guard of the future in Portland. The problem is, he shoots like Jason Kidd but doesn't pass, defend, or rebound like Kidd. I have always thought Kidd was overrated because his poor shooting was the huge hole in his game that could be exploited when the playoffs rolled around and teams could concentrate on pin-pointing the weaknesses of particular opponents. Telfair is an even worse shooter, though, so the Wolves will struggle to get good shots and thus their shooting percentage will theoretically cause problems.

Sure enough, a quick check reveals they are shooting .436% for the season...and that ain't very good. They do outrebound the opponent...by less than 1. So they struggle to score, struggle to stop people, and don't control the boards. How are they going to win?

Basically, they need the hot night from 1 or 2 guys with 3 or 4 others stepping up to have at the least average games. That is a formula for disaster. Jefferson might like it because he can accumulate the stats that will lead to a huge contract...but they are going to get blown up night after night.

This is one of those games that determines how much of the recent streak was a young, talented Portland team asserting themselves and how much of it was a nice home schedule and a couple solid road games mixed in. This is the type of road game that is not just winnable, it is almost a "must win" if they want to take that next step. Portland is more talented at every position, they have a better bench, they have a better coach...they should not just win this game, they should win it handily...double digits at the least.

I would not think the Jazz game is a reprise of the Philadelphia game...the confidence level should remain high, the players should take the floor knowing they are better and go about proving it. I would be very, very surprised...and, truth be told, disappointed...if they somehow lost this game.

Portland 101, Utah 111

All good things must come to an end. The Blazers' much maligned streak is over at 13. I am not sure how valid the complaints about their schedule were...they did have a pair against each Denver and Utah, including one of each of those games in the opposing buildings, and also had a game against the Hornets...oh, and they DID play the Golden State team that has looked like the team that took out the Mavericks last year now that they have Stephen Jackson back...so it isn't as if they have played nothing but the bottom feeders. Sure, there were a couple...but they had a few games against teams that, at the least, are middle of the road or better, and not a few people have proclaimed both the Nuggets and Jazz as dark horse title contenders. I, it might be pointed out, am not one of those people...as long as Iverson is a Nugget they will not win one and the Jazz are not there yet.

Be that as it may, I could not predict a 14th straight win because the Jazz are, hard as it is to admit, a better team than Portland right now. They are more consistent from night to night and beating them in Utah twice in the same season is asking a lot of this young team. But they gave it a pretty good shot.

They came out hot in the first quarter. Frye had 6, Roy had 7, and Aldridge 10 in route to a 29 point quarter and 6 point lead. But there was trouble brewing.

After building a lead of 11, Portland went cold. Aldridge continued to score, tallying another 7 in the second quarter, but Roy was mostly out of the game with foul trouble and could only muster a brace of free throws to close out the quarter. The Jazz won the quarter and the half...and things were about to get worse.

Roy continued to have foul problems. Aldridge carried the team for most of the quarter but did not get much help. Again the 3rd was a trouble spot for Portland, though this time, only to the tune of 35-29...they scored 29 points and lost the quarter by 6 points! Where was the defense?

Well, entering the 4th with only an 8 point deficit, a red-hot Aldridge (29 points), and contributing Jones (12 points) and Roy waiting to make his impact on the game, things actually did not look bad. If Roy could stay out of foul trouble and they could get a few stops, this was a winnable game.

That in and of itself is a major victory. This is a team that now competes, game in and game out. They fight through nights when their big guns are misfiring, they overcome off nights by their secondary scorers, they just find ways to make games competitive...and once the game is competitive, they more often than not find ways to win the game.

Roy and Aldridge came out firing, scoring the Blazers' first 14 points. Unfortunately, the Jazz were scoring 16 points in that stretch. It was essentially a 2 man team, though Outlaw scored a few points in the last couple of minutes and Jones added a meaningless trey when the outcome was no longer in doubt.

First, the good: Aldridge was an unstoppable force on the night, scoring 36 on 12-17 from the field and 12-14 from the line. Unfortunately, he was not rebounding, but he certainly did his part from the field.

This is the type of game where someone needs to step up on the boards, as Portland mustered only 31 (and lost that battle by 9). Portland shot 48% for the night, Utah 52%; what happens if we alter the possessions by equalizing the rebounds?

Well, if Portland gains 4 more rebounds, they are going to score about 2 points more. Utah, meanwhile, in losing 4 boards, will score about 2 points less. That makes it a 6 point game, all other things being equal...not good enough. On the other hand, if Portland picks up 7 rebounds for a total of 38, that brings Utah down to 33. Portland adds 3 - 4 points, Utah loses 3 - 4 points...now the game has changed.

You don't play a 3 - 6 point game the same way you play a double digit game. By equalizing the board battle, Portland creates enough extra possessions to give themselves a legitimate shot to win the game. In truth, because they could not get key rebounds and the role players did not step up, the hot-shooting 4th quarters of Aldridge and Roy were doomed as they were never able to shrink the lead to a manageable margin. Controlling the boards in the 4th quarter would have led, if not to a win, at least a game that was closer than this one.

This was one of the few times this season the 4th quarter has not been owned by the Blazers. However, there is no shame in losing to an improved Utah team on their floor. It was a transcendent effort by Aldridge and I look forward to many more.

18-12 Portland at 16-16 Utah

Portland has beaten Utah twice in the last 13 games...both times without LaMarcus Aldridge. Tonight they will have another obstacle...Coach McMillan will not be at the game. If I thought he would ever read a humble piece like this I would extend my condolences to him. Tough time of year for something like that.

With that said, a lot of people expect Portland to win this game. They are red hot and Utah is ice cold, having lost 2 straight and just 3-11 in the last 14 games. In addition, Utah is a team in disarray. They traded Giricek for Kyle Korver after the latest blow-up between Sloan and a player. That is a help to Portland as it removes another zone-busting shooter from the Jazz line-up.

But it does not solve a couple of their other problems. First off, Carlos Boozer feasts on the Blazers...he is a beast inside. He seems to have his way, scoring and rebounding almost at will. Unfortunately for Portland, Aldridge is struggling a lot right now, so an already bad match-up gets worse. Deron Williams is the tough type of point guard for Portland as he is excellent at penetrating at will, creating havoc for the Blazers' zone.

If Roy continues his outstanding play, Webster, Jones, and Outlaw are all hitting their shots, and Aldridge snaps out of his funk the Blazers will hit 14. I think it somewhat more likely that they will find that all good things come to an end as Utah remembers they are Utah and regains their winning ways. I really hope not, I seriously dislike them, but this has all the earmarks of one of those games where Portland ends one run...but they will win many more this season.

Philadelphia 72, Portland 97

Early in the season there was a game I fearlessly predicted, "Portland is a much better team than Philadelphia and should win. If they do not, for whatever reason, then the road struggles will become a thousand pound gorilla and they will struggle on the road for the rest of the season. Conversely, if they win...as they should...then that will build their confidence and lead to a few road wins this season, which they will need to reach their post-season berth which I expect for them.

This is one of those rare nights where if Portland plays an average game, they win by a lot. If they implode, they should still win, just it will be close. They are that much better than the 76ers.Portland by 10+

Everything was in place. Portland was up by 25 at one point. They led by 17 going into the 4th quarter. They were on their way to winning that game. Fresh off the confidence-builder of their win, they would then beat Washington and Charlotte on the road, come home and close it out against New Jersey and be on a huge run. They would have been in the thick, believe it or not, at that point of the division race.

But we all know what happened. Portland had one of those young-team collapses. They gave back all 17 points and more, lost that game, and went into a swoon where they did, indeed, sweep the remainder of the road trip...except they did it in reverse, lost to a bad New Jersey team and the season looked like it was going down the tubes.

Of course, starting with Travis "Charles" Outlaw's game-winner against Memphis, they returned to being the team I thought they were. They have run off 12 straight coming into this game which should be a "revenge game" where a high-flying Blazers squad runs a bad 76ers team off the court.

They finished the first quarter with a 7-2 run to take a 21-16 lead. The rout was on...except then something happened. Philadelphia went on a 16-2 run of their own to close out the second quarter and go into the break with a 45-36 lead. Portland was on the verge of being blown out themselves in a game they should win and win handily. It is a game they should have been "up" for and been blowing out the 76ers. Now they were down 9 and heading into the 3rd quarter, a season-long bug-a-boo. Portland needed someone to step up.

Enter Roy, Blake and Aldridge. Aldridge scored early, Blake hit a pair of 3s and a short jumper and Roy added 9 points. Portland closed to within 63-62 after 3 and were entering their time.

During their win streak...yes, and even before...the 4th quarter has been their time. During the losing streak they often would make up huge deficits but just fall short after digging too big a hole in the 3rd quarter. During the win streak they have played the 3rd close and won in the 4th. This night they played the 3rd well and won the 4th, and not by a little bit.

They scored the first 18 led by Outlaw scoring 7 of the first 10. they never let up. Their offense was explosive (35) and their defense the best they have offered this season (9). This was the intensity I expected much earlier in the game.

And it was that magic 13th game...the last in the best win streak Portland has put together in quite some time. It has been fun to watch and there will be plenty more wins this year...I just don't think I see the next one coming again in Utah.

Minnesota 98, Portland 109

This is the game Portland needed to play. They came out early, building a 6 point first quarter lead...then winning the second quarter as well. The third quarter, such a trouble spot for so long, again was kind, giving them a tie and then Portland won the 4th quarter.

This is a big step. So often this season Portland has played down to the level of their competition or they have built a lead and then relaxed. That led, earlier in the season, to disaster. No longer.

Aldridge rebounded nicely, shooting 9-17, snagging 8 boards, blocking a couple of shots...he did not come out pressing, in fact, after making the first shot of the game he went 5 minutes before taking another, picking up an assist off an offensive rebound, pass to Przybilla for a dunk and turning the ball over. In other words, he played a team game.

The entire Portland team played a team game. They ended up with 6 players in double figures led by the 22 of Roy and 21 of Aldridge. They shot 49%, out rebounded Minnesota 47-32, blocked 6 shots and only had 12 turnovers. That is the solid type of performance they should lay on a bad team like Minnesota.

McCants and Jefferson got their points, Gomes provided some help but everyone else Portland held in check.

On a side note, Webster had another off game offensively, going just 2-8 from the field. He did help in other areas, though, bringing down 4 boards and adding 3 assists. I am hoping he gets his game going a bit more consistently soon. On the bright side, on a night they really did not have to have his shooting and scoring he was not pressing but for the season to deliver on its promise they are going to need him to develop some consistency.

Meanwhile, the roll keeps going.

4-23 Minnesota at 16-12 Portland

Minnesota is abominable at home (3-13) and worse on the road (1-10). They play to the speed of their opponents, are out manned every night, and have some of their better players (Randy Foye, acquired from Portland for some stiff named Brandon Roy...) out injured. They have lost something like 9 out of 10 games.

Portland, meanwhile, is on a roll, having won 11 straight including multiple wins over teams that were considered the divisions' best when the season started (Utah and Denver). By no stretch of the imagination should this be considered winnable for a bad, bad Minnesota team against a Portland team that is starting to look like an above average team.

Except...

There it is. I have become a doubter. I am going to outline the way this could become a "trap game" for Portland. Do I think it will happen? No. But I do see the possibility if several things happen.

First off, we all know how much Aldridge loves to play and how disappointed he was with his performance against the Supersonics. So he, being a young player, might come out pressing. That tends to lead to turnovers, missed shots, squandered possessions, and a stalled offense that simultaneously creates numerous extra scoring options for the opposition.

Second, this is the return to Portland of Sebastian Telfair. He has had flashes, brilliant games such as his 28 point, 11 assist performance in the Timberwolf win over the Pacers last week. He might still be motivated to prove Portland erred in giving up on him.

Third, Theo Ratliffe still has the potential to dominate a game defensively. If Portland is driving a lot and he is turning back shot after shot it could get ugly quickly.

Finally, Antoine Walker can still explode from time to time.

Now, I do think these circumstances are unlikely. I believe Portland is too talented, has too much leadership, poise, and the coaching is too good for them to overlook Minnesota. I do not believe Aldridge is a selfish player who will look for personal "redemption" at the cost of the team. Nor do I believe he needs redemption. He has contributed far more to many Blazer wins than any struggles he encounters will cause them difficulty. Everyone has an occasional bad game, the key is to just play his game and let it come to him.

That is one benefit of having a guy like Brandon Roy around. He had his own struggles earlier in the season and seems to have bounced back okay...

In the long run, the most likely outcome is a Portland win by blow-out. It will provide a pretty clear illustration of one thing; who the true league MVP is.

Huh? The guy who SHOULD win the MVP will not be playing in this game. However, a quick look at 3 teams will show what I mean.

The first team is the Knicks. Last year they had a TON of shooting power in their back court between Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis. Where did it get them? There is a reason the Knicks were looking to buy out Francis and why Marbury has become persona non gratis this year. Shooters are nice...but they are complementary.

The second team is Minnesota. They were not great by any standard of measure, finishing with the same 32-50 record as Portland did. Yet they have some nice pieces in place. They have a penetrating point guard in Telfair, they have complementary scoring available in Antoine Walker (though his averages are down he is still a capable scorer), and a talented front court player in Al Jefferson (20 points, 12 rebounds per contest). Yet they cannot win.

Then you have Boston. They have had 2 scorers before...remember when Pierce and Walker were throwing in 25 a night? Boston was stinking up the league. Boston with Allen and Pierce is New York from last year...a team where on any given night one or both stud scorers can get hot and almost single-handedly win the game but just as often will have "average" nights, not get help, and lose the game.

Boston with Allen, Pierce and Garnett? Pure gold. All aspersions on their schedule aside, Boston has done what other teams with "soft" schedules have not done...they have won those games. They are not losing games they are supposed to win. What is the difference between the below average, 2 scorer Knicks of last year, the average T-wolves of last year as compared to the pathetic Minnesota 5 of this year, and the bad Boston Pierce-Walker teams of a few years ago and the title contenders of this year?

Kevin Garnett. It is not just his scoring and rebounding...Al Jefferson has numbers nearly as good as he had with Minnesota last year. It is his presence...he facilitates other things happening. He plays great team defense. He passes. He takes over games when needed. He makes the difference between a team with 2 or 3 scorers that loses a lot and a team that could contend for a title. And that is the definition of an MVP. He makes everyone better, makes an okay team great.

Here is a fearless prediction: Minnesota will miss him in the Friday game. Portland will blow them out.

Another reason to love the 2007-2007 edition

I have been a big LaMarcus Aldridge fan since he came on board. I know I sound like a broken record...big Brandon Roy fan, big Martell Webster fan, big Travis Outlaw fan, big Jarrett Jack fan, big Joel Przybilla fan, becoming a big James Jones fan...but that is just one more thing to love about the Blazers. So many players to like. Aldridge is one more example. Last year I was hopeful he would get a few more minutes. This year I was ecstatic to see him not just starting but playing major minutes and being a focal point of the offense. It looks like he might develop into a 20+ points, 9 or 10 rebound guy in the coming years and be fun to watch. Best of all, he loves to play and it shows. He often has a big grin on his face even during the game and that is awesome to watch from a fan perspective.

In fact, the main issue I have with him is sometimes he is not aggressive enough with his offense. He does not demand the ball when the Blazers need a bucket or early in the game to establish himself. Even on nights where he misses his first shot or 2, he needs to demand the ball and make a move. It creates that possibility in the opposition's mind that he might be laying 25 on them and they have to adjust their defense. It opens the floor a bit for penetration by the guards and creates movement opportunities. Perhaps most important, it keeps him involved in the game. For all that, I think the other night when he did none of this is a prime example of why he is rapidly becoming one of my all-time favorite Portland Trailblazers.

The other night against a bad Seattle team, though they had nobody who could really stay with him, he started slowly. His first shot was missed, his second was a rebound shot...and then he disappeared. It was probably the worst game I have ever seen him play. He shot horribly (1-10), missed both free throws, had a low rebound total, did not block any shots, make any of his normal hustle plays on defense...on this one night he did not look like a good player, even though I have been arguing all year he is on the cusp of being a great player who can dominate in this league. In fact, he was not on the floor for the Blazers' stretch run despite it being a game that could have been lost with one good Seattle run.

So what is there to like about that? I am going to argue it was his reaction that makes him special. Aldridge is no prima donna. He did not complain about McMillan keeping him on the bench. He did not point fingers at his team mates for not getting him the ball often enough or in the right places. He said nothing about his numbers. He just cheered from the bench....and then, after the game, he went to work on his shot to see what was wrong with it.

That is AWESOME. That is a player who loves to play and wants to improve. That is a player who is happy his team is winning and wants to do his part, whatever that part is, to keep them on the winning track. That is a MAN in a league of sometimes spoiled children. That is a great teammate in a league full of Stephon Marburys, Allen Iversons, Kobe Bryants (although that one might be a cheap shot this year...he is passing a bit more...).

I love the mentality that he is not going to complain when he has a bad game, he is not going to argue with the coaches, he is not going to cry about it...he is just going to cheer on his teammates and then go to work to improve. I don't think it will be too much longer before you see his name in the All-Star line-up. Not this year...but that time is coming.