The Road trip so far

Going in I thought Portland SHOULD win the game against Toronto, though with Calderon coming on it could be a problem game. Sure enough, he scored 22 and added 10 assists while only missing three shots. Bosh had a huge game, 38 and 14 on solid shooting. Portland shot just 41% and gave up 48% shooting.They managed to win the rebound battle by 8 which goes a long way towards explaining how they got the game to overtime but they ended up losing a game they should have won, 116-109 in double overtime. 0-1 on the trip.

Against New Jersey I thought Portland should win by 6 - 10 points despite Kidd, Jefferson and Carter, though anytime you run into a team with athletes that talented there is the possibility you will lose. Portland shot 53%, New Jersey 34%, and Portland built a 13 point first quarter lead that was never threatened on their way to a blow-out win. The Nets three most talented players shot 7-33 and nobody stepped up to help them out. Portland blew them off the court 99-73.

I am a believer in Boston. I think they are as good as their record and are going to be tough to knock off anytime before the Finals, though it can be done. Portland is good but I don't think they are ready to win this road game. Yet. Sure enough, Boston did what very few teams have done against the Blazers recently...they won the 4th quarter. Roy, Aldridge, Jack and Outlaw had solid games but nobody else stepped up. Allen and Garnett were both "on" and were too much for Portland, leading Boston to the unsurprising 100-90 victory and dropping Portland to 1-2 on the road trip. I had hoped they would be 2-1 at this point, but hey...what are you going to do?

I thought Portland should beat Miami and probably pretty handily...say, 6 - 10 points. Somehow they turned a 9 point half time lead into a 7 point deficit heading into the 4th quarter as they absolutely melted down in the third quarter. Early in the season they would have completed the collapse and lost another winnable game on this trip. These are not those Blazers, however. Led by Roy's 16 4th quarter points, they came back to take a convincing 7 point win, 98-91. Strange how you don't hear much these days about the Bryant-O Neal rivalry... 2-2

Against Orlando I thought it was a toss-up. Orlando I made a slight favorite but it would not be a huge upset if Portland pulled out the win. They started slowly and never really recovered from the 8 point deficit that hit them in the first period. Aldridge had a terrible shooting game (6-21), though he did help on defense, blocking 4 shots. Roy played well but just did not get enough help. When one of your studs struggles you need 2 or 3 role players to step up and only Outlaw did so on the offensive end. Meanwhile, 5 Magic scored in double figures and they shot 50%. Orlando was the better team this night and pulled out the 101-94 win.

So the road trip stands at 2-3. A 3-4 road trip I thought would be a success, a 2-5 a disaster, and 4-3 would be tough but do-able. To hit that Portland needs to win the next two. They should beat Atlanta. New Orleans...well, that we will have to wait and see.

Eastern Road Trip

I will not be able to follow the progress on the upcoming Eastern swing, a fact that leaves me a little bit sad. Be that as it may, here is a down and dirty, quick look at what I think could/should happen:




Toronto

Chris Bosh seems to have taken a step backwards but Jose Calderon has been a revelation. They are almost the epitome of an "average" team...they are 18-17 overall, 9-9 on the road and 9-8 at home. If Roy is healthy it will not matter a lot whether Blake is or not...Jack can play off Roy quite well and Rodriguez has shown he is a capable back-up at the point or shooting guard. Portland has the talent and desire to win this game and should come away with a win.



New Jersey

9-11 at home, 9-6 on the road...and Portland is a better team. But they still have Kidd, Carter and Jefferson, 3 guys who can take over games and win them all but single-handed. Portland should win and win by 6 - 10 points...and they will if they can keep Kidd shooting a poor percentage and contain Carter and Jefferson.



Boston

Much like New Jersey, Boston has 3 guys who can take over a game and pull it out on their own merits. However, they also have talented role players who give them a lot of help. Boston should win this game, though Portland certainly has the talent to pull out the upset. This will be the toughest game of the trip to win.

Miami

With the Big Offensive Foul the Heat were awful. Without him they are even worse. Miami has Dwayne Wade and 11 stiffs with Shaq out injured. Frankly, should Portland lose, that would be a disaster. Sure, it is a road game...but they have too much talent to lose to this Miami team no matter where the game is played.

Orlando

Another Florida game, this one a little tougher. On the surface, Orlando is the favorite. Their 23-14 record is strong, they have one of this year's most improved, somewhat dominant players in Dwight Howard. They have on again, off again superstar in waiting Jameer Nelson. They have all-around scorer Hedo Turkoglu. Their role players step up, much like Portlands. This is a tough, dangerous team. With a 7-8 home record....they are much better on the road (16-6) than they are at home. Weird. Still, they being at home I make Orlando a slight favorite, but if Portland is playing well this game is eminently winnable.

Atlanta

As a young team with no expectations at the beginning of the season, expectations were light. As the team has improved, won a lot of games they weren't expected to, and have done it with a roster not much was expected of this year. A lot of that has been built on an impressive home record but their road record is improving too. Still, Atlanta is a step or three behind the Blazers. They have the advantage of being at home and catching Portland at the tail end of a long, tough road trip. Portland should come in with 2 or 3 wins and leave with 3 or 4.

New Orleans

Early in the season I thought this would be the first Blazer road win. I was not super surprised they lost but I was surprised at the way they lost. As the season has gone on the Hornets have proven to be better than I was ready to believe...but still surprisingly mediocre at home, just 9-7. The road is tough on young teams...so goes the excuse. Portland has been proving for over a month now that they might be physically young but they are competitively mature. This game is a toss-up where the advantage goes to the home team. New Orleans gets a further advantage by catching Portland in the final game of a long road trip. I suspect they will pull out the victory.

This road trip will be a great test of where Portland is at. If they are ready to not just get to the playoffs but actually be a threat they will go 4-3 or even 5-2. 3-4 would be a good record on this trip. 2-5 is about the worst I can conceive of them doing and winning no or 1 games would be a disaster. I look forward to watching this team develop. I would love to see 1 - 2 games where Webster steps up, a couple more where Jones does, and see Outlaw and Jack come strong night after night. Still, we all know it is up to Roy and Aldridge to carry this team, particularly on the road.

One final note. I have been hearing the TNT announcers talk about Roy for MVP this year. I think that is pretty premature. If he comes out and guides Portland to a 6-2 or 6-1 record on this trip...I might even get on board that. I don't expect it to happen, I think it is a bit too soon. But this is a great opportunity to watch Portland develop even a little bit more. Let's enjoy the ride.

Portland 109, Golden State 91

Professional sports are tricky. Every so often a pro football game will turn on 1 or 2 plays...a vastly superior team loses when their punt returner inexplicably muffs a punt with no opposing players close to him, the other team scores, kick off and the ball bounces funny, they recover...suddenly the bad team has a lead and the good team starts pressing, the outcome is unpredictable. The same holds true for the NBA. Boston, one of the elite teams in the league...a team that wins pretty much all the games they should, wins most of the "toss-up" games, and even pulls out the occasional game you would think they would lose...had a night where one guy is injured, one guy misses a few shots he normally makes...and loses at home to a very pedestrian Charlotte team. Things happen.

All told, that makes it hard to be accurate in predictions. Sure, you can say what SHOULD happen...but will it? When the Blazers play Seattle, for instance, they are playing a team with weak interior defense. It is a team Aldridge should have a monster game against...but doesn't. Then against San Antonio, a team with great interior defense, he comes out and looks like the best player on the floor. Blake comes out one game and takes 2 shots. The next game he takes 14...and makes 10 of them. One night outlaw will take 10 of those drive/step-back foul line extended jumpers he loves and miss them all. The next game they will drop.

So when I make my predictions I typically leave a little bit of wiggle room. Here is what the Blazers PROBABLY need to do to win...though they could win if this doesn't happen but something unexpected does...say Przybilla taking and making 8 or 10 shots or Blake exploding or Webster showing his potential...but those possibilities exist. The difference between the playoff teams and the lottery teams is those unforeseen things and how regularly they occur.

With that said, I think perhaps the most accurate prediction I have ever made was in regard to the Golden State game. I was able to listen to about the first quarter and I was loving it. Portland was controlling the role players, forcing Jackson and Davis to shoot low percentages, and Przybilla was controlling the inside. It was textbook for beating Golden State.

Portland exploded out of the gate behind Przybilla. Offensive rebound, hit a couple free throws. Defensive rebound, dunk. Steal. That is the first three possessions of the game. All Joel, all the time. Then Webster and Aldridge each threw down dunks. Then, after an Aldridge post-score, Przybilla dunked. It was awesome. Portland was doing exactly what they needed to do...they were taking advantage of the weak interior defense of Golden State. That caused the outside to open up, resulting in wide open looks. For the quarter Portland had 5 dunks and 4 3s. That is about as good as inside out can get and the 30-14 lead looked like it might only grow. Meanwhile they were forcing Jackson and the Warriors into tough shots which were not falling.

And this was a game where the unexpected was happening. Roy was having a slow scoring night, one suspects due to his sore tailbone. Aldridge was having a typical night...9 first half points. They got a few from Jones, a few from Outlaw...but Przybilla had 8 and Blake 20. That is a couple good games for Blake in just one half.

And they would need it. One way to change a rocking Rose Garden enjoying a 13 point lead is to have your glue, Brandon Roy, fall to the ground in pain with a hyper-extended knee. But that is just what happened with a little over a minute left. The Blazers still pushed it to 15 at half-time but the worry was there. Portland without Roy or Aldridge for a game or 2 can survive. Portland without Roy or Aldridge for an extended period of time is going to lose a lot of games.

Good news arrived with the start of the second half. Roy returned to the floor. After Biedrins hit a shot Portland reeled off 10 straight points. In no uncertain terms they were telling Golden State the night belonged to Portland. The Blazers had an impressive 66-43 lead. By the end of the quarter they were up a sawbuck, 84-64. Roy wasn't scoring much...but everyone else was. Except Blake, out with a calf injury...not a good sight.

The 4th quarter was close-out time. Even Green got into the game and tried a few shots. It was a blow-out win and Portland showed they had what it takes to win a game wire to wire. It was among the more dominating performances I have seen since the glory days of Kersey, Porter, Duckworth, Williams and Drexler.

Davis and Jackson combined for 9 points on 3-15 shooting. Barnes was their leading scorer with just 14. They shot just 39% while Portland shot 46% and Portland out rebounded them by 8. When your best players aren't scoring, nobody steps up, and you can't keep your opponent off the boards (12 offensive rebounds for Portland) or make up the difference in squandered possessions somehow, the result is going to be a blow-out.

Portland, on the other hand, had their stars step up...sure, Roy only scored 8 points (on just 12 shots), but he also tallied 8 boards and 8 assists. Aldridge only scored 19...but Jones and Webster combined for 32 on 11-15 shooting...including an astonishing 7-11 from long distance. Well, astonishing except when compared to Blake's 5-6 from downtown...

In other words, everyone contributed. Przybilla had "just" 10 points...but he added 10 boards. Nothing that really "stands out" as being spectacular...he had a good but not unusual 2 blocks...nobody had a huge number of assists, and outside of Blake's' 24 points on 8-10 shooting nobody really had a transcendent game that made you sit up and take notice....nothing like Webster's 24 point quarter, anything like that. This was just a good team dominating another good team. It was beautiful.

Speaking of Webster, it was nice to see him have back to back good games. It provides hope that he has taken that next step in his evolution as a useful starter who has a valuable contribution from a scoring standpoint more than once a week into someone who night in and night out is in the low to mid double digits with occasional 20 - 25 point nights when needed. He has not often this season rung up a good night in the game subsequent to a good game so it was unusual...but welcome.

Oh, and...Portland is all alone in First Place. Even I, the most optimistic of fans, did not see that one coming.

Pre-view, 20-15 Golden State @ 21-13 Portland

Golden State is one of those scary teams. They are fully capable of beating anyone as they showed with their dismantling of San Antonio Tuesday night. They have multiple scorers, the ability...and willingness...to shoot from anywhere across mid-court at any time, they play as a team, and they have a couple guys capable of huge nights that can individually just wreck another team.

Noted hot-head Stephen Jackson has stayed in his shoes and is playing some outstanding basketball. Baron Davis is another stud who can just wreck any given team on any given night. Those two guys alone are enough to scare anyone. Either is capable of dropping 30 - 40 points on any given night if they feel like it, and do it while shooting a high percentage. Still, if that was all the Warriors had I would not be worried.

However, the Warriors have a great regular season coach and a number of role players who are willing and able to provide support. They have no fear of playing on the road, running up an 11-8 record...not exactly chopped liver. On the bright side for Portland sharp-shooting Matt Barnes is questionable with the flu. On the dark side...so is Brandon Roy with a bruised tailbone. Who is hurt more in that exchange?

Portland needs to contain Davis and Jackson, making them work to get their shots and shoot a low percentage without allowing Biedrins, Ellis, Harrington or Azubuike to go off.It is hard because Golden State plays such strong team ball. They have 6 guys averaging double figures in points and 7 guys averaging at least 4.3 rebounds.

Of course, they have weaknesses, too. They allow their opponents a nice shooting percentage, tend to give up an extra 5 rebounds per game, and on nights when they 3s desert them they tend to keep shooting them and can shoot themselves right out of the game.

Portland has the tools to attack them. Golden State struggles with interior defense. Post up Aldridge, let Webster post up a few times, and let Przybilla, Aldridge and Frye pound the boards. Portland can get some easy buckets in transition, should score well in the paint and if their post game is working they will create open shots on the perimeter for Jones, Webster, Blake and Jack. They also know how to defend the Warriors as they showed when they held them to 95 in the first Portland meeting...not easy to do against a team averaging almost 109 points a season.

Portland is at home one more time, they have the talent, they have the confidence...they just don't have Brandon Roy. Is this the game the run ends? I do not think so. Though I do know Golden State has the talent and tools to win I also know Portland has the same and is making a point of defending the home court. Even without Roy they should win this game.

Furthermore, looking at their upcoming road trip, I see several winnable games: they go to Toronto, New Jersey, Boston, Miami, Orlando, Atlanta and New Orleans. Boston and Orlando are long shots and New Orleans will be tough. Miami should be a win as should Atlanta. New Jersey and Toronto...well, those should be wins but they are road games so they are toss-ups. All told I expect to see 4 wins on that road trip. 4-3 would be a very productive record on that road trip and might be a bit optimistic. Anything less than 2 wins would be a disappointment and 3 wins would be a success. I will be out of town during most of that stretch, but I will be back on the other side.

Everett Silvertips 7, Portland Winterhawks 2

I am a big hockey fan even though all we have in Portland is bad junior league hockey. Actually, saying it is "bad" is only partially accurate...we did have the Hossa brothers pass through and before that, Adam Deadmarsh...I have seen some pretty decent players but the real level is probably better than high school, worse than major college.

A couple years ago during the "Jail Blazer" years I was known to turn down Blazer tickets in favor of Winter Hawk ducats. A couple nights ago when the Jazz were in town a few of us, went to watch some hockey.

The game started badly. Just a couple of shifts in the Silvertips were putting pressure on the offensive zone for a sustained stretch. Portland had a chance to get the puck out of their end. But someone made a key error. One of the first things you learn in hockey is to push the puck to the side of the rink. Under no circumstances do you make a clearing pass from behind the net to the center of the rink when there are fore checkers.

The young Portland team did worse. A defense man centered the puck from behind his net during a goal mouth scramble. Everett was up 1-0.

A couple minutes later a power play led to a second goal. Portland killed a couple power plays, then on yet another Silvertip power play Portland had a guy escape their zone, get a break-away and score a short-handed goal. It was pretty exciting. Momentum was swinging. The smallish crowd was into it.

And then someone centered the puck from behind the net again. 3-1, Everett. They scored again to make it 4-1.

Portland finally got their first power play in the second period. Everett got SIX in the first period to none for Portland. Hmm. There was one play in particular that blew me away where a Silvertip, unimpeded and pushed by any Winterhawk, took out Mucha the goaltender on a play. No call.

Anyhow, on their power play they got sloppy which is dangerous against a team as aggressive on the penalty kill as the Silvertips. Everett jumped out but there was a Portland defender back...sort of. Our man was between the Tip and the goal...but he never closed on him. Instead, he skated back down the center of the ice as if defending against a pass to a non-existent wing, leaving the slot wide open to the Tip, effectively turning the one-on-one into a break-away. Those favor the offense and it was 5-1. When Portland scored on their next power play it did not matter.

They did manage to give Everett 2 more goals on unbelievable passes from behind the net where they centered them. One in particular was such a perfectly draw up pass to move the goalie and leave him out of position for a shot that you almost forgot the passer was a Winterhawk and the shooter was a Silvertip. It was a great pass...just a terrible puck-clearing.

And that was the evening. The Hawks essentially beat themselves. They gave up 3 - 4 goals on defense where they made horrific turnovers on routine clear-outs where instead of kicking it to the boards and working the puck out of the zone they tried going out the middle to disastrous results, 1 goal where they turned a tough opportunity into a break-away, and gave up 6 power plays in the first period alone...poor Mucha really had no chance on probably 4 or 5 of the goals.

They are a pretty bad team this year. But hey...they are inexpensive and still fun to watch, so there you go.

Portland 103, Utah 89

Bad teams get blown out by good teams, lose games they should win and win just often enough to justify the next contract for some of the players. Games that could go either way usually go the other way.

Decent teams win most of the games they should, occasional games they shouldn't, and win about as many games over the course of the season as they should. Games that could go either way determine their season.


Good teams win a larger percentage of the games they should, a few games that surprise you, and lose very few games that they should win. Games that could go either way usually go their way. Usually what separates good teams from great teams is the team itself...the ability for role players to take up the slack when the stars have off nights.

Great teams win virtually every game they should, a couple games that surprise you, and games that could go either way have a way of the ball bouncing just right, the calls going their way...and when their stars play poorly or not at all, they still find a way to win.

Where is Portland at on this chart? They are at the very least a decent team...and I would argue a good team. They started the season in decent range, losing the games they should lose, winning the games they should win and even throwing in a win or two that was unexpected...the home victories over the Mavericks and Pistons fall into that range. But then they had that stretch where they got blown out by good teams (Denver), lost games they should win and were on the verge of this being a lost season. At that point they looked like a bad to decent team.

We all know what happened next. They got hot. Red hot. Outlaw hit the buzzer beater to beat Memphis. 12 games later they were still winning. They beat everyone they should and a few teams they shouldn't. Most importantly, they did it without key players.

They beat Utah in Utah without Aldridge. They beat Utah at home without Aldridge. They won 4 games or so without him. Their role players stepped up and Roy carried the team for large portions of that stretch. Aldridge came back, the beat went on. Then Portland's run ended as they lost in Utah to Utah. As good as Portland has gotten, I argued that was a game Utah should have won...and they did.

This game I thought Portland should win...So with a deep bench, a ton of confidence, and the friendly confines of the Rose Garden, everything is in place for Portland to win again. The Jazz are a solid team, easily capable of the win...but look for Portland to pull this one out by 6 - 10 points.

They actually won by 14. That, in and of itself, is not exceptionally surprising or impressive. At this point of the season I would argue Portland is actually a better team...and that is not something even I would argue at the beginning of the season. I would argue it now...well, I would if Roy were healthy.

If you tell me before the game that Roy will play 9:27, take just 2 shots and take himself out of the game, that Williams would have far and away the best game he has had against Portland with 23 points on 9-12 shooting and 7 assists besides, and Aldridge, Blake and Przybilla would combine for just 30 points, I would argue this is a game Portland should lose. Roy is a difference maker and in his absence Portland needs someone to step up. That means Blake and Aldridge in particular need to score a few more points.

But that is another step in Portland's evolution towards being a great team. Many people stepped up. Przybilla had only 6 points...but it only took him 3 shots. Blake did not score well, nor did Jack (9 points on just 3-9 shooting), Jones only scored 6 points...but they got help. Outlaw shot better than he has in a while with an efficient 7-12 shooting. He did not get to the line 8 - 10 times like he has been but Rodriguez stepped up huge with a dozen. Nobody got more than 8 rebounds...but 5 players had at least 6.

Portland won the rebound battle 43-31. They won the turnover battle 17-14. Aldridge alone blocked 4 shots and doubtless altered numerous others. In other words, the entire team stepped up...none bigger than Mr. Martell Webster.

Portland trailed 42-39 at the half. Roy was out for the game. Utah looked like they were well on their way to a nice win. Only Aldridge (17 points) kept Portland going in the first half. He would be very quiet in the second half. He made a pair of free throws on Portland's first possession...and then it was Webster time.

After Aldridge missed a jumper the Blazers hit 6 straight shots...5 by Webster. The first 3 were deuces, the last two treys. And that is a big step forward for Webster. Too often he takes mostly 3s. This time he opened his 3s by taking 2s. He expanded his game a bit.

Przybilla thought scoring looked like fun so he threw down a dunk, made a couple free throws...then Portland remembered Webster was hot. He was fouled while shooting a 3, made all 3 and Portland had their first lead since 22-21 at 1:08 of the first period, 62-61. Then he hit another jumper, another 3...he finally missed a shot or two, then closed his explosive 22 point quarter with another 4 free throws.

The 11 point lead shrunk to 6 but then Portland, led by Outlaw, went on a 14-2 run that put the game out of reach. Eventually they would even score chalupas for the fans.

When you have role players capable of quarters like the one Webster threw down it is a huge step towards becoming a great team. Portland has several of those players. To be honest, I am not shocked when I see monster quarters out of either Aldridge or Roy. They are both players with tremendous offensive abilities and they are capable of having big quarters, big halves, big games...and I actually expect those things once or twice a month out of players of their caliber.

But more importantly in the process of becoming a better team is having secondary players who can pick you up when you need it. Take a quick look at the players who have done that for Portland so far this season:

Jarrett Jack (several times).

Travis Outlaw (several times).

Martell Webster (2 or 3 times).

James Jones (several times).

And, to a lesser extent, they have had comparative explosions from Blake, Rodriguez, and even Przybilla threw down 15 or 16 points a couple times. Frye has also dropped 20 points on at least one team.

In other words, Portland has a lot of players capable of stepping up on nights when Roy or Aldridge is out of the game or having a rough game. That turns games you are expected to lose into games you are able to win.

I personally am ecstatic. I think Webster can be a huge asset for this team. Look at his rebounding troubles. Often enough when he is struggling with his shot (or not even shooting) he will pull down 6 or 8 rebounds. And they are not long boards where he is standing around on the perimeter...he gets down inside with the big guys and pulls down some tough rebounds. I have watched him post up...he has skills in that realm. If he starts moving in, taking closer shots instead of hanging out to try threes, his scoring will improve and this team will improve.

However, he has had big games before, particularly against Utah. Will he sustain this success? Will he learn the lessons there to be had...shooting from close-in as well as long range? I would love to see a Webster who posted up a couple times every game, took 4 - 6 mid-range jumpers and shot 3 - 4 threes. No, I don't think 10 - 12 shots is too many for him, he is easily capable of shooting 45- 50% and averaging 14 or 15 points a game.

If he could do that it would help take a lot of pressure off Roy and Aldridge as it would open the floor more for their games. Przybilla could work the boards more and Blake seems to have the team running smoothly when he is on the floor.

The second unit already is playing well. Frye provides a nice mid-range jumper option, Jack, Outlaw and Jones take turns adding scoring punch, and Rodriguez can break down a lot of defenders.

But perhaps the most important component is Webster. He can provide that outstanding shooter the starting five needs.


That would be another step for Portland in moving from where they are (good team) to where I want them to be...great team. And games like this can only help as the players gain experience in playing with key pieces missing, whether through injury, foul trouble, or poor play, and confidence since they have been in the win column before.

18-16 Utah at 20-13 Portland

It is hard to wrap my mind around this being this year's team. Too often I have compared Portland to the teams of the last few years when considering who is likely to win a game. As a co-worker said, we are so used to poor character teams that fold under pressure...teams more interested in firing up the hippie lettuce or dog-fighting than in playing basketball. It is a new season and this team is hitting its stride big-time.

Ironically, I was one of the earliest and biggest boosters of this team. I am one of the very select few people so optimistic about this team that I said in the pre-season they should win 42 games and sneak into the post-season. Even without Oden I thought they were improved. But then something strange happened.

Early in the season I would have said Utah was the better team and Portland would be doing well to split the season series, winning a pair at home and losing handily on the road. There was a better than average chance...say, 65-35% that Utah would win one in Portland and even a 40% chance they were enough better (still) to sweep the series.

Oh, how wrong I was. As we know by now, Portland has won 2 of 3 so far from the hated Jazz. No, these are not the dirty Malone years but the Jazz still are worthy of that resentment, built up over the Stockton/Malone years Drexler was our stud.

Already it has been a successful season as far as the Utah series is concerned. Saturday Portland has the chance to win the season series 3-1 simply by holding serve on their home court. In a sense they are free-rolling...that is, if expectations they will simply match their 32-50 record of last year were still in play. I don't think they are. If Portland goes just .500 the rest of the way they will end up either 44-38 or 45-37...some people think that is a stretch and it may be. There are still plenty of tough games on the schedule. Utah is one of those tough games.

But I have returned to my early season optimism. This is a tough game but a winnable one...and, I will even argue, one they SHOULD win. Of course, early this season there was a game I thought they should win and win big and I argued that after they beat Philadelphia they would be 7-2 in their next nine games. After that loss I changed it to say they would get swept on the rest of the road trip...they did...and even lose to New Jersey, whom they should have beat. I will argue Portland is one quarter away from potentially a 50 win season...if they had beat Philadelphia they would have had the confidence and heart to beat Washington, Charlotte, and New Jersey and would already have been well above .500.

Be that as it may, Utah will come to town with a chip on their shoulder. They do not believe Portland is ready to play with them. They think the Korver acquisition was a big improvement. They think they are the Division and Conference contenders and Portland is a pretender.

That seems to be a popular consensus. Barkley was arguing that Portland is not a playoff team because they cannot get easy baskets. And he may be right. Certainly he is a better analyst of the league than I am and his basketball knowledge surpasses mine. I also freely admit my predictions are colored by "homer-ism"...if I err, it will generally be in favor of the Blazers.

However, I think he may be in error. Portland has several ways to get easy baskets...they have great success running the pick and roll with Roy and Aldridge, Outlaw can get off his drive left/step-back jumper at will, and both Roy and Jack can penetrate/kick out for easy looks. The question is will they use those options?

So the normal predictions are in place: Boozer will have a strong night, Portland will struggle on the boards, Aldridge or Roy needs to have a solid game and get help from a couple of role players...but at home that is more likely to happen.

One thing I have noticed is how deep on his bench is. In the Portland glory years they ran 7 - 8 deep at most. I think most "good" teams feel the same way, running 7 - 8 players deep. Portland runs 10 deep regularly. They are playing Jack, Blake, Rodriguez, and Roy in the back court, Jones, Webster, Frye, Aldridge and Outlaw in the front court and Przybilla at center when they don't throw Frye or Outlaw up there.

This, I think, should keep them fresh. It also gives plenty of guys opportunities to have the hot hand. Jones and Outlaw seem to be the most frequent bench contributors, though Jack shows up often enough he can't be ignored either. Webster or Blake usually have a good night and Frye often picks up the slack when Aldridge is struggling. But the most consistent are of course Roy and Aldridge and that ain't chopped liver.

So with a deep bench, a ton of confidence, and the friendly confines of the Rose Garden, everything is in place for Portland to win again. The Jazz are a solid team, easily capable of the win...but look for Portland to pull this one out by 6 - 10 points.