8-12 Portland at Utah

Utah lost 3 road games where their defense was bad enough to set Sloan's teeth on edge. Portland has struggled on the road all year. Stud scorer and rebounded LaMarcus Aldridge is not making the trip because of a foot problem. In short, I had little...okay, no...hope Portland would win this game. In fact, I had the timer set to flick over to Shrek the Halls even though I have already seen it since by then Portland would probably be about run off the floor.

If I were to write my "keys to the game" they would go something like, "Przybilla block shots and rebound, Roy score and distribute, and 3 or so guys from the Jack/Webster/Jones/Outlaw contingent have transcendent games while Boozer has a horrendous game."

In fact, before the draft I wrote a piece on Helium in which I discussed my (admittedly wrong) preference for Durant over Oden. My reasoning was something like this:
Przybilla plays defense and rebounds. He doesn't score much, but he doesn't need to. Aldridge, Roy, and Durant will provide plenty of punch in the starting line-up and Outlaw and Webster coming off the bench could be explosive. Meanwhile, you have Blake and Frye to provide defense off the bench. So they have balance between starters and bench, dynamic role players who can shoot from distance (Webster), work the ball inside (Aldridge), and provide defense and rebounding (Przybilla and Frye).

I thought then and think now it is a good formula, though putting Oden in the starting line-up and bringing Przybilla off the bench next year is starting to bring good thoughts to my head, admittedly.

Well, against the Jazz, they followed that formula to some extent. Przybilla did not score much (6 points on three shots) but he rebounded a bunch (10) and his defense...the 5 blocks tell only part of the story. He altered shots, he changed the game. He was a rock in the middle.

Jack added 16, though as we all know he is now coming off the bench, and Webster exploded for a career high 25 points and only missed 4 shots all night. Frye provided some good defensive moments and Blake, while he did not score much, helped hold Williams to 4-14 shooting and just 11 points.

Meanwhile Boozer had a big night with 29 and 13, but he was being matched basket for basket by Portland and not getting much help...other than Williams' 11, only Milsap reached double figures. On a night when Portland has 5 guys in double figures and shot 48%, that was not a positive sign for the Jazz.

Watching the game, early on it seemed like nobody could miss. When they did, the Jazz were all over the boards. Their offensive rebounding total was ridiculous, eventually totalling 22 offensive rebounds...and only 28 defensive rebounds. That was keeping Portland from rolling over the Jazz.

They still built double digit leads before settling for a 9 point half time lead. Early in the third it looked like they would blow the Jazz off the court but Utah worked itself back to pull within 12.

Portland fans have seen this before...Portland build a comfortable 15 - 17 point lead on the road in the 4th...and give it all back. Utah started the 4th with a 9-2 run to bring it back to a 5 point game with plenty of time remaining. No Aldridge, a lead disappearing...and Roy and Outlaw took over, rebuilding the lead. It would swell back to double digits and return to just 5 a couple times, but never less than 5. And somehow, someway and out manned Blazer team did the impossible...they beat the Jazz in Utah.

Early in the year I would have believed this possible but unlikely. Frankly, going into the game I did not even believe it possible. Without their (arguably) best player in Aldridge, having struggled on the road all year, and in a building where Portland never wins against a team that even I would not argue the Blazers are better than at this point...

All I can say is WOW! Way to go, Portland! This is the team I thought they had early in the year. This is the team I thought would go 9-2 in one stretch where, after the Philadelphia debacle, I revised that estimate. I still think if they finish that game they would have swept the other games remaining on that road trip, beating Washington, etc., and with that confidence they would have held serve at home against New Jersey for sure and possibly be on a HUGE winning streak right now.

I think this team, as constituted, is good enough to be better than .500 both now and at the end of the season. However, there is an open question if they will. They have been up and down, as expected with a young team. Hopefully they will run off the confidence from this game and continue the streak against Golden State Wednesday Night.

Milwaukie at Portland

Coming off the defeat of the Miami and the last second Memphis win, this is a game Portland should win, and easily. They are a better team than Milwaukie and Milwaukie is missing pieces like Simmons. Of course, Portland also should have beat Philadelphia, Washington, ....okay, you get the picture. I thought the Blazers were good enough to compete with almost anybody but they have also shown themselves capable of losing to anybody.



As usual, I thought going in the keys to the game were Roy and Aldridge having their "standard" type games...15 - 25 points each, Aldridge with 8 - 10 boards, Roy with 4 - 6 boards, 4 - 8 assists, both around 50% shooting with Aldridge above and Roy maybe a hair under that mark, and then for 2 other players to step up, maybe Outlaw and Jack, maybe Webster...as long as SOMEONE stepped up.

Well, Aldridge and Roy both scored 24+ points on excellent shooting...but Aldridge could not buy a rebound, ending with just 3. Fortunately Roy had not just an average or good game but a great game, missing just two of his 13 shots, pulling down 8 rebounds, and dishing out 9 assists.

How about the support? Well, 2 people stepped up. First, Steve Blake elected to score and score in a big way, dropping in 19. And helping out considerably was Travis Outlaw.

On the surface, his game looks rough...3-11 shooting, just 5 rebounds. But then you notice he also took 16 free throws...and made 14 of them...and suddenly his game looks better. Outlaw was making things happen. He was drawing fouls, creating havoc, and he was not afraid to take a shot. That means he was getting into the lane and breaking down the defense.

Defensively, the Blazers had an up and down game. On the bright side, Michael Redd was held to 5-23 shooting. That is a positive, promising start. However, Bogut, Williams and Villaneuva all had strong games with better than 50% shooting, and in one case 70%.

The first quarter was very back and forth with each team holding small leads. In the second quarter Portland started to pull away, building a lead as high as 10 points but the Bucks battled back to pull within 6. Aldridge and Roy both were in double figures and Blake added 8 in a fine 57 point first half. The Blazers were scoring and scoring well.

They built the lead back to 10 and maintained it for most of the quarter until a late burst by the Bucks narrowed it to 84-76 entering the 4th quarter. Portland was getting scoring from numerous quarters with Aldridge, Roy, Blake and Outlaw all hot and Webster making the occasional contribution. Everything was set for Portland to run away with the game. They avoided the third quarter collapse...they came back after scoring but 4 points in the first 4 minutes, maintained their lead and got some rest for their key players.

The 4th quarter started well with Outlaw scoring to extend the lead back to 10. Then something happened. Jack turned the ball over a couple times, they missed a couple of shots, couldn't stop the Bucks and all the sudden the 10 point lead was a 5 point deficit as the Bucks went on a 15-0 run.

Here comes gut check time. Portland has struggled not just on the road but at home lately. Early in the year I would have had no doubt they would come back and win. However, ever since that Philadelphia game when everything fell apart, they have not been the same team. They showed some life in the Memphis thriller and again when the Heat made a run. How would they react to this?

They went on a 6 point run of their own to retake the lead. Then it was back and forth with the Bucks taking 2 or 3 point leads and the Blazers catching up. But the Bucks started to pull away, building a 6 point lead with about 2-1/2 minutes remaining. Portland needed someone to step up.

Or several somebodies. Embodying the team concept, Outlaw, Blake, Roy and Aldridge all scored with the final two Aldridge free throws tying the game with 15 seconds left.

Neither team could score and Portland would see how they played in an overtime game. Early on it did not look good as the Bucks took the lead. Again with 2-1/2 minutes left they had a 5 point lead and things looked bleak. They looked worse when, after making a big jumper, Aldridge fouled out and Portland still trailed by 3.

But Outlaw hit 4 crucial free throws, Blake added a couple, and Roy hit a layup. Meanwhile, the Bucks could muster only one Bell free throw in the last 2:18 and the Blazers gutted out a clutch 117-113 win.

It is exciting to see because this seems more like the team I believed Portland had early in the season. Winning at home, competing on the road, and good enough to make the playoffs. It will be interesting to see if that swoon will be repeated. Hopefully not.

Portland 112, Miami 106

I actually was offered tickets to this game and turned them down because I so dislike watching Shaquille O' Neal play. He is a walking offensive foul. I get so sick of seeing him initiate contact with an immobile player, move them, and get the call it just isn't fun to watch. So instead of seeing it live I elected to watch it on TNT.

Now we can add dirty to that offensive foul reasoning.

49 seconds into the game he made his patented bowl someone over move. Przybilla took the charge, went sprawling, and wonder of wonders...they called the offensive foul! But O Neal wasn't done with the play. Somewhat off balance, he deliberately moved the basketball in line with Joel's head and laid all his weight on it, driving Przybilla's head into the floor. It was a dirty, dirty play with no place in basketball. It was a play that should have earned O Neal a huge fine and long suspension.

When you deliberately try to injure another player, take away his livelihood...and possibly worse, considering O Neal's weight and the delicate nature of heads...that is inexcusable and nigh on unforgivable. I have seen O Neal throw elbows and fore-arms before and have oft thought he was a fairly dirty player but this was about as bad an incident as I have seen.

Because he is Shaquille, however, he did not even get a technical. What a joke, and a bad one. He is one of the few players I think would be well served to have someone take his legs out from under him when he is doing one of his dunks, land him on his head and end his career. It would make the NBA a more enjoyable league to watch.

Meanwhile, Roy broke out of his slump and had a brilliant game with 25 points on 7 for 15 from the field...but a confidence-boosting 11-13 from the line...and 6 assists and 5 boards. In other words, he was back to his all-around game and reasonable shooting. He also overcame recent free throw woes nicely.

Aldridge continued his steady season, thought he had just 14 points...then again, when you only get 12 shots and don't get to the line, it is hard to score much more. He could actually learn a bit from Outlaw.

Outlaw is not as good a player as Aldridge. He is not as good a shooter, though his rebounding has improved, and at times he has bizarre lapses on defense. However, he is also capable of tough, on-the-ball, harassing defense and sky-walking, game-changing spectacular blocks from off the ball. In this game he got up 17 shots AND got to the line 5 times. In other words, he made sure to get enough shots to contribute. More on this in the Milwaukie game. Aldridge needs to demand the ball. He needs to get in position, demand the ball, and make his move. Portland needs him to score consistently while continuing to rebound and have an impact defensively if they are to live up to their potential. And this is the year he has to do it because next season will be acclimating themselves to Oden.

He did have a statement. In the closing minute of the game Wade drove the lane and tried a layup which Aldridge spiked it so hard it bounced over a guy and into the crowd. It was a fun block that definitely sent a message.

Overall, this was a game where all the Blazers contributed. They shot well, got key stops when they had to, withstood a huge run that erased a comfortable lead, had their prime-time guys of Roy and Aldridge have good games and got help from key role players, particularly Outlaw, Jack, and Jones...who went 4-6 from three point land, and at key times.

That is their formula for success. Hopefully it continues.

And O Neal breaks his leg.

4-13 Miami at 6-12 Portland

When the schedule was released, this game must have had the suits at TNT salivating. A declining but still popular Shaquille O' Neal against #1 pick and young stud Greg Oden up front while 2005 Finals MVP Dwayne Wade runs into 2006 Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy. Marquee match-ups everywhere, with possible Most Improved Player of the Year LaMarcus Aldridge added into the mix.

Lo and behold we get here and Portland has no Oden, Wade was injured early and (for him) pedestrian since coming back...though any team that would not LOVE to have him in their back court is insane...but his "mere" 20 points a game has not helped Miami all that much, O'Neal is no longer a 25 and 10 guy, now just 15 and 7.5, and the marquee value has kind of disappeared as Miami is on a 3 game losing streak and Portland just finished a 4 game losing streak with their last-second win in Memphis. But it is still on TNT. One suspects the geniuses that scheduled this game for there are no longer quite as happy.

Early in the season I would have projected Portland to win in a walk. They are the more talented team, they are hungrier, they have more to prove. Przybilla and Frye have the defensive chops to give O'Neal problems, Miami has nobody to stop Aldridge or Roy, and only at point guard would Miami have a marked advantage.

But then Portland went into the tank. Their road woes affected their home game and they dropped 3 very winnable home games I thought they would have won. They look like what most people seem to think they are...one of the worst teams in the league.

But Miami is still worse, at least right now. Maybe after Wade hits his stride that won't be true, but right now...they are worse. Portland should win this game, and handily. They play better at home, they have everything they need to run Miami off the court. I should make the call for a blow-out.

I just don't know if that road win over Memphis is enough to get them where they need to be.

Outlaw has been studly lately, Aldridge continues to be the man night after night, and Jack has settled comfortably into his 6th man role.

But Webster continues to struggle, Roy has had but one good game in his last several, and the Blazers are just not consistent. You don't know from night to night if you will get 20 and 10 from Outlaw...or a 2 - 11 shooting 5 point stinker. Webster might give you 15...or 2. Roy might be 9-15 for 25 points and a few boards, or he might go 4-18. There is no consistency so it makes it hard to predict what should happen.

Somehow, the doubt comes up in the back of the mind that they will let Wade, O'Neal, or Davis go off for a monster game and find a way to lose to a pretty bad Miami team that is struggling mightily.

But I am going with the homer card. Let's say what should happen will, Portland win.

Portland 106, Memphis 105

I thought going in the game would be a blow-out one way or the other. I figured one team would build a lead early. It it was Memphis, the delicate Portland psyches would implode and they would get run off the court. Conversely, if they came out angry and put up a lot of points, I thought they would take the lesson of the Philadelphia game and build the lead, finishing the game.

I was wrong.

This was the Portland team I thought we had at the beginning of the year.

They got contributions from a couple role players and their stars produced. Roy finished the first quarter with 5 points and 3 assists, Aldridge added 10 points and had 2 steals inside the last 38 seconds leading to 5 of the 8 points Portland scored in the last 50 seconds to take a 31-24 lead into the second quarter. But the key is they battled back and forth all quarter, coming back after trailing by 7 early at 12-5. That was the bad moment, when they could have laid down and gotten crushed. But Blake and Webster stepped up, each dropping in treys, and Portland was right back in the game.

James Jones, back from injury, had a hot second quarter with 8 points. Good thing he was scoring because hardly anybody else was for Portland. After a nice 31 point first quarter they could only put in 19 in the second. Once more the second unit struggled mightily. Meanwhile, the defense disappeared for Portland as they gave up a 33 point quarter. That is a huge swing and they found themselves down 7 at the half in a game they really need to have.

They started off hot in the third quarter, scoring the first 9 points to take the lead. They traded baskets for a bit, then Memphis extended to a nine point lead with less than 2 minutes in the quarter and they traded baskets to make it 80-71 with 51 seconds left in the third quarter. Then Portland rose up. Aldridge scored his 20th point, they produced a turnover, Jack made a layup, then with 2 seconds left Jones stole the ball and Outlaw made a ridiculous half court trey to make it a 2 point game going into the 4th.

But neither team wanted to lose, so the 4th would be exciting. Memphis built the lead back to 7. Portland came back to take the lead. They traded buckets and 1 or 2 point leads until Memphis scored 4 straight to take a 103-99 lead with 1:10 remaining.

Travis Outlaw then took over. Despite having his last shot attempt blocked, he made a jumper, rebounded a Stoudemire miss, drained a three with 15 seconds left to give Portland a 1 point lead. Then they got what they wanted, a last-second shot by Navarro. They did everything right, keeping the ball away from Gay, Miller, or Gausol. When you take away a team's top 3 choices, you should feel pretty good about your chances...

Of course, all year rebounding has been a bugaboo for Portland. And it struck again. Gay got the offensive board and scored with 2 seconds left.

Portland had some pretty good players on the floor for the last shot. Two mighty fine options would be Brandon Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge to take the last shot. Both had big nights. Both have shown they can make that shot. But Portland could not get the ball inbounds. We were watching, yelling "Get it inbounds!"

And they did. To Travis Outlaw.

Oops.

Not our first choice. Or second choice. Or, for that matter, third or fourth choice. He was probably the fifth choice of the guys we had on the floor. And he dribbled for an interminably long time. I thought the shot clock had to have run out. He elevated, he shot from a bad angle off right...and made the shot.

They reviewed it about 100 times the rest of the night because it was that close to being too late. In the end the bucket stood and Portland had a win.

I thought for Portland to win they had to have production from their stars and 2 or three role players step up. Well, Aldridge went for 23, Roy had his best game in a while with 26 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists, and Outlaw was probably the star of the game with 21 points and 7 boards. He was studly when Portland needed him most. James Jones also was key as he shot the lights out, 6 of 7...including 4-4 from downtown. His 16 points were a huge boost to the Blazers.

They never really slowed Gay or Miller, each of whom dropped 30 on them, and Gausol was hardly held in check as his 15 boards attest. But they got stops when they had to, made key shots, and came away with a badly needed victory. It will be interesting to see if this once more turns their season around. They still have time to return to the promise once shown if they can develop some consistency. Jones will help a lot if he can keep providing that sort of spark to the team. He is an exciting player. And Outlaw has really come on in the last few games. He has shown flashes before, it will be interesting to see if it lasts this time.

5-12 Portland at 6-10 Memphis

Portland is coming off a 21 point loss. Memphis is coming off a 29 point win. Portland is 0-11 on the road, riding a 4 game losing streak (and 9 of their last 10) while Memphis is up 3 of their last 4. Everything is in place for a Memphis blow-out win.

They have players who give Portland fits...Rudy Gay went off in the first meeting, Pau Gasol turned his season around...it could be a long night.

Adding to Portland's misery is the way they cannot seem to have anyone other than Aldridge have back to back good games. If things go according to form, Outlaw and Webster will disappear, Aldridge will bounce back from a rare bad game, and Portland will lose handily.

However...Portland should come into this game angry. This is gut check time. Unlike Ring Night when Portland gave the Spurs a run for their money...and could have won...they were never in the game against San Antonio. The Blazers have had a long run of playing other teams when their best player is out (Agent Zero, Adam Morrison, etc.) or having a horrible game (Iverson, Nowitzki twice, etc.) and still pulled off a horrific defeat. Duncan was never a factor and Portland still got blown off the court.

Portland needs to come out angry, put the hammer down, and play their hearts out. They need to play tough, aggressive defense, get the ball inside to their scorers, and make the shots. If they get a lead, they need to show a killer instinct and expand the lead instead of allowing Memphis back into the game.

If the Blazers come out with fire in their bellies and get the Grizzlies to miss a few shots early, this will be the game where they get the road monkey off their back. If not, they will get blown out yet again.

This is a tricky game. Everything I think about basketball points to a Blazer win. I stubbornly hold out the argument they are a better team than Memphis despite a plummeting record. They were just embarrassed and should come out strong. Memphis should come in overconfident after a team record tying blow-out win. You would expect Portland to rise up and make a statement.

However, the one thing we know about losing streaks is they tend to become self-perpetuating. A team might even build a lead...but when the opponent makes the inevitable mini-run, then the team in a long-term struggle thinks, "Here we go again." That key confidence component disappears. They rush their shot or take a bad shot trying to turn things around. Then they make a turnover. A mini-run turns into a monster run. Now the confidence is destroyed. Good shots rim out. Bad shots whiff everything. Defense suffers.

And the only thing that stops it is someone stepping up, overcoming the pressure and having a positive game. This is a key stretch for the Portland franchise. They have a long home stand coming up. They need to rebuild their confidence and find a way to get a few wins. That includes breaking through on the road. We will see whether they can or not. More and more it looks like my pre-season prediction of playoffs was way off base and a better prediction would be "lots of ping-pong balls in the lottery". I hope I am wrong.

San Antonio 100, Portland 79

How would Portland respond to a game when not even once in 4 quarters could they eclipse the 25 point mark?

By throwing up the worst game of the season.

Roy scored 4. Aldridge doubled him up...but shot just 2 of 8. Blake added 1 point...and still outscored Przybilla. In fact, if not for Webster, no starter would have hit double digits. Martell was dialed in, shooting 7-11 and scoring 17, more than the other 4 starters combined.

Outlaw went for 17 points and 11 boards on 8-16, a very respectable game. In other words, the small forward combo had 30 points. But otherwise, it was an ugly, ugly performance. Przybilla tallied just 10 minutes for whatever reason...one presumes because Portland had so much trouble scoring. 79 points for the game with San Antonio's best player out? Inexcusable.

It was not as if San Antonio was lighting the world on fire. They lost All-World Tim "Whinemaster" Duncan in the second period...and still steamrolled the hapless Blazers. That happens when good teams shoot 48% and bad teams shoot 40%.

Portland needs to find an offense. The interminable pick and rolls only work when you get the ball to good shooters in good locations. When you don't, you end up with a stagnant offense that puts up 80 points a night and loses by large margins. And you spoil nice efforts by Webster and Outlaw.

If Portland can get these performances on a regular basis from Outlaw and Webster, all they would need to salvage a reasonable season would be Aldridge and Roy to have average nights regularly. I don't expect it to happen.