The name is Jones...James Jones

The agate type is hardly impressive...18 minutes, 8 points on 3-4 shooting, 1 rebound and 2 personal fouls. His plus-minus stands at an unequivocally neutral 0. No assists. No blocks. No steals. But it belongs to one of the most important players on the Portland Trailblazers. Unlike Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge or Travis Outlaw it seems unlikely that James Jones will ever be an All-Star but he is something else. He seems to fill the role of the glue that holds together a Blazer team that is more talented than their rather pedestrian 31-28 record would indicate. To be sure, part of that record stems from having stars Roy and Aldridge miss significant numbers of games...but it could be argued the loss of Jones hurt equally as much. After all, Portland did win in Utah without Aldridge...but not without Jones.

With Jones Portland is 23-12...without him they are 8-16. How do you go from a .667 winning team to a .333 team when "all" you lose is a guy averaging 9 points and less than 3 rebounds? It is not as if Jones is a stellar defender. His paltry .07 assists per game indicate he does not create a significant number of opportunities himself. Yet his return to the team after a lengthy spell sitting out with injury showed how he helps the Blazers.

Facing their long-time nemesis the Lakers, Portland started slow. Aldridge could not buy a bucket...early on it looked like the Lakers would run away with the game as they built a comfortable 10 point lead. It was not the 10 points that were the problem...it was the way the lead was built.

The Lakers were getting contributions from their entire line-up and the Blazer defense was, to put it charitably, porous. Meanwhile, outside of Roy and an occasional 3 from Steve Blake the Blazer offense was non-existent. When they moved off the ball they got in each others' way, pulled Lakers into prime defensive position to create double-teams, and ended up taking shots against the clock. Adding to their problems was easily the worst job of officiating I have seen in a long time.

Referees have a difficult job. The home fans never think fouls called against their guys are the correct call and seldom think any missed shot was not the result of an opposition hack. With that said, more often than not the referees get it right. Sure, they miss a call here and there...they are just human. But overwhelmingly they get the calls right. This game was an exception. You expect Kobe Bryant to get the benefit of superstar calls...it is frustrating, but that is how the game is and has been for a long time. Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan...they all got a lot of calls that a Jerome Kersey, Steve Kerr or Joe "Jelly Bean" Bryant didn't get. So be it. But when even Sasha Vujacic is getting those calls it makes it tough.

Again and again Lakers sent Blazers crashing to the floor with no call while at the other end the merest breath would draw a whistle. With 5:30 to go in the game the Lakers had only been whistled for 13 fouls in a very, very physical game. Joel Przybilla was unfairly in foul trouble. He picked up two fouls when Bryant ran full-speed into picks that were reminiscent of the old Karl Malone picks...no movement, just a strong guy set. It was awesome watching Bryant crash to the floor knowing he was about to get called for the foul...only to have it go against Joel. What? Horrendous, horrendous calls that affected the game. With Przybilla in the game Portland was controlling the defensive boards. Without him the Lakers ripped 13 offensive boards. The calls were so bad that at one point Jarrett Jack grabbed a rebound, was surrounded by 3 Lakers trying to foul him and instead a jump ball was called. Even the Lakers were laughing. So the Blazers were struggling on offense, battling some tilted officiating, and had all of 18 points in the first 8 minutes and change. Then, as if to make up for their earlier blown calls, with less than a minute to go and Derek Fisher guarding air he was called for a couple fouls that were the classic "phantom call". The 7 fouls called on L.A. in the last 5 minutes left the number of calls almost even for the game (21-20) but don't show the impact the officiating had on the game.

It looked bleak indeed. The vaunted home court advantage enjoyed by Portland was falling to effective Laker offense, ineffective Blazer offense, and officiating.

Enter Jones. He had no points in the last 3:37 of the quarter...but the Blazers had 9. Okay, so they scored a third of their points in the last third of the quarter. Hardly impressive...except for the WAY they scored them. Suddenly instead of the fools gold of getting bail-out desperation 3s against the shot clock that somehow went in they were getting good looks with plenty of time left on the clock. They were moving freely, creating havoc for the Lakers defense, and getting good scoring opportunities even when the ball didn't hit the bottom of the net. This boded well for the remainder of the game. This was largely due to the return of James Jones.

Even after he returned to the bench the Blazers had a more effective offense than they have had in weeks. They were moving without the ball, their picks were timely, they were making smart decisions, getting open looks, and were hitting those open shots. Now it was the Lakers with porous defense. Jack was getting to the rim at will, Roy was finding people open from every angle imaginable, Aldridge was coming up with timely buckets and Portland ended up outscoring the Lakers 92-79 over the last 3 quarters. That offensive explosion by a team that was getting height-inspired nose bleeds if they scored 90 points in a game prior to the return of Jones was a wonderful thing to see and provides hope for the near future. With games against the Warriors and Suns in the near future Portland will need to top the century mark with some regularity if they want to finish the season over .500.

And to do that they need more of what Jones brings to the table. Leadership. Movement on offense. Timely defense.

Oh, we are supposed to shoot BEFORE the clock expires?

As the Blazers were running out to a 32-16 first quarter lead the Rose Garden was rocking, every time out was greeted with a standing ovation by the ecstatic fans, and I turned to my wife and said, "They are going to lose this one." That 32 point explosion was fools gold...as was the paltry 16 points the Celtics were in the process of scoring.

Even though they were scoring seemingly at will there were signs the Blazers offense was in deep trouble. It seemed like every possession they were scoring with 1 - 2 seconds left on the clock with a bail-out long range jumper against tough defense. Even worse, that seemed to be by design.

The Blazers seldom hurry to get the ball upcourt. Whereas the Suns want to shoot in 6 seconds or less, 6 seconds is less time that it takes Portland to get the ball across the mid-court stripe. Once they do they are still in no hurry to get into their offense. Typically Brandon Roy, Jarrett Jack, or Steve Blake will dribble outside the 3-point line until about 10 seconds are left on the shot clock. During this time there is little to no motion off the ball. Then they will try to initiate their offense. Too often that meant throwing the ball in to LaMarcus Aldridge too far out on the floor for his post up game to work and with plenty of Boston help to force him to kick it back out. That meant whoever got the ball had 1 or at most 2 dribbles and then had to force up a shot. Fortunately for Portland they were hitting those shots...but good results does not mean good execution. They were setting themselves up for a scoring collapse.

Meanwhile Boston, despite having but 16 points after a quarter, had everything in place for a high scoring evening. It all started in a surprising place. As a long-distance observer of the Celtics the guys who are scare are pretty obvious; Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett. And by the end of the night those three combined for 59 of the 112 points put up by the Celtics. But as good as they are the key to the Celtics offense on this night was two-fold.

First, they get into the offense early. As soon as the ball crossed mid-court there was near constant movement. They were making solid fundamental basketball plays such as setting back screens to free up shooters for wide open looks. Second, they had Rajon Rondo and Portland has Steve Blake.

Blake has been a solid player for Portland this year. He shoots a high percentage and plays pretty solid defense. He generally does a good job of getting Portland into the offense, the last couple of games excepted. But there is a huge hole in his game and Rondo was exploiting it all night. Rondo is, plain and simple, too fast for Blake. Again and again he exploded past Blake and created movement as Portland scrambled to cover for him. This created easy opportunities for all the Celtics, not just their big three. The paltry 8 assists Rondo was credited with on the night do not show just how dominating he was. A better clue is the 58% the Celtics shot from the field. That was due in no small part to Rondo breaking down Blake repeatedly, Boston making the extra pass, and taking shot after shot after shot after shot with no Blazer within 5 feet. By getting into the offense early Boston had plenty of time to move the ball after Rondo got into the lane.

Interestingly enough, one Blazer did the same thing to Rondo. Sergio Rodriguez was making Rondo look slow. Rodriguez is an interesting case study. He has games like this where he comes in, is explosive, creates offense, defends brilliantly and changes the game around. Then there are games like this where he just...disappears. And often enough it is not his fault. At one key point in the second quarter he was being guarded by Eddie House. He hit a 3 and then, on the next possession, broke down House, got to the rim and scored a quick bucket to give Portland a 39-23 lead. There was a television time-out and for whatever reason he was pulled. Now, normally when Brandon Roy comes into the game it is a good thing. Portland obviously has nobody with his talent level. In this case, however, it was the right substitution at the wrong time. Portland would watch their lead shrink to 7 at the half but by then, even though they were leading, it was blindingly obvious they were going to lose the game.

And so much of it came back to the offense. Portland had 2 people capable of creating offense; Rodriguez and Travis Outlaw. Outlaw was having a stellar game. However, so much of his game was coming against the shot clock that it was pretty much unsustainable. On the bright side, Portland identified who was scoring for them and started riding Outlaw. Unfortunately, instead of getting him the ball in the center of the court they started getting him the ball in the corner where his superior speed and agility was neutralized as Boston was able to use the baseline as an extra defender. Players such as Grant Hill are excellent at playing the baseline offense...Outlaw is much stronger in the center of the court.

There were some bright spots for the Blazers. Aldridge clearly has an agenda when it comes to Garnett. He was calling for the ball and, when he got it with time on the clock and was able to avoid the double-team, was very effective. At one point instead of posting up he got the ball foul line extended right. He drove left, Garnett backed off, Aldridge pulled up and hit a 15 foot jumper. Then he made sure Garnett knew he had made the move on him. That is a brave strategy for a second year player and, at least in this game, it would not come back to haunt him as Garnett had a very sub-par game.

But there were not many. Boston simply had too much offense...a lot of it by Pierce after a pile-up on the floor which got him interested in the game...and Portland had too little. It seems strange to score 102 points and talk about struggling on offense but that is exactly what happened.

In the end Portland got beat by a better team. There are lessons to be learned that will help the Blazers be a threat in the playoffs in a year or 2 but for now Blazer fans will have to be content with watching Roy develop. Assuming, of course, that the re-injury of his groin that limited him to 26 ineffective minutes is not serious...

Of bad offense and worse opponents

Due to work and other life circumstances I had kind of lost touch with Portland. I was vaguely aware they were on a losing streak and were struggling mightily. Somewhere in there Brandon Roy played in the All-Star game and, judging by his performance making the front page of the Oregonian, apparently played very well. But I have been unable to keep up with what is going on and have lost my feel for the team. Fortunately, last night I was able to attend the Seattle game, a game I selected mostly to get a Brandon Roy Bobble head. The availability of said toys shocked me because it speaks quite clearly to the popularity of the "reining Rookie of the Year" as Mark Mason announces at every game. We got to the game an hour early...and they were out of Bobble heads as you had to be one of the first 5000 fans there. How late were we? My good friend John got there 2 hours early...and the bobble heads were gone. Portland fans do not, as a rule, show up 2 hours before game time. I think it is safe to say that even in the midst of a losing streak the Blazer fans love B-Roy. Fortunately as a season ticket holder I still got the bobble head...

The excitement was palpable. The Blazers have made a couple changes since I last saw them. First, the starting line-up has changed. Jarrett Jack is back in the starting line-up and Martell Webster is coming off the bench. This is an interesting change. It makes the Blazers smaller and faster. Roy slides to small forward instead of shooting guard, Jack slides into the shooting guard role and Steve Blake runs the point.

In theory this should improve the offense while weakening the rebounding further yet. Jack, Blake and Roy are by far the best passers on the team and all three have point guard instincts. It would stand to reason therefore that ball movement would be improved. Jack is a better perpetrator than Webster so there are three threats to break down the defense and create some shots in the paint. With LaMarcus Aldridge to either work the post or spot up for the 18 foot jumper and Joel Przybilla to set picks and rebound this line-up can post up, penetrate, and have multiple shooters to kick the ball out to if double-teamed.

As for rebounding, the Blazers already struggle in that department. It is not helped by replacing the 6'8" Webster with the 6'3" Jack. Webster is willing to get inside and battle. His statistics are not staggeringly high compared to Jack but his presence allows Aldridge and Przybilla to do their work with less interference. This is one of those areas that "don't show up in the agate type" areas.

The line-up has potential. Repeatedly Aldridge would get double-teamed and make the proper pass to the open man who would rotate the ball out top...where it would stop and the Blazers would wait for the Sonics to set up their defense. This resulted in multiple shot clock violations and several forced shots against the buzzer. For whatever reason the combination of Blake, Roy and Jack does not move the ball particularly well and when they do rotate it to the open man he is too hesitant to pull the trigger. Thus the offense struggled all night long. Eventually it degenerated into either Travis Outlaw coming off the bench for repeated clear-out, one-on-one situations or scramble plays where pure hustle resulted in good scoring opportunities.

The Blazers shot just 38% for the game. It would be nice to attribute this to the Seattle defense. But that is hard to do. Again and again Portland created open looks and refused to take them. Or they would get the shot they wanted and just miss. Here are a couple of examples.

Roy takes his time bringing the ball up the floor. By the time he reaches the offensive end 6 seconds have elapsed. He dribbles outside the 3 line for a couple seconds, then works it over to Blake who makes the entry pass to Aldridge. At this point Blake is supposed to cross out to where Roy had been to give Aldridge that side of the floor to work on. His defender knew the play and started towards the top of the key. Instead Blake runs baseline which runs his defender directly into Aldridge which unintentionally creates the double team. Roy scrambles to the spot vacated by Blake and Aldridge kicks the ball back out to Roy who is closely guarded. With about 6 seconds left Roy rotates it out top to Jack who is wide open. He hesitates which allows his defender to close, then throws it into the post to Przybilla who does not have great hands, fumbles the ball out of bounds and the possession is wasted.

To the Sonics credit when Blake went the wrong way they adapted and made the correct double team. When Jack hesitated on his shot they closed out and everyone was once more covered. But the offense moved the defense into the correct position.

The second example is quite similar. Outlaw has the ball outside the 3 line, foul line extended right. He breaks down Jeff Green, gets into the lane and draws a triple team. He kicks it out to the right corner. Blake, wide open, elects not to shoot. He dribbles to his left, rotates it out top to an open Roy who then dribbles backwards a couple steps and resets the offense...which allows the defense to reset. Outlaw moved the defense out of position, Portland had 2 open looks and took neither. If you fail to take advantage of situations where you get the defense out of position it will make for long, sub-40% shooting nights.

Fortunately the Portland defense was stifling. Seattle was being funneled into the middle where Przybilla and Aldridge were sending back seemingly everything the Sonics put up. At half time the Blazers had blocked a whopping 9 shots. But it is not the blocked shots alone...it is the adjustments those blocks make in the heads of the opposition. Time and again Sonics rushed shots close-in knowing that Aldridge (5 blocks) or Przybilla (4 blocks) was roaming the paint and missed easy shots. In the first half the Blazers were doing a good job of controlling the defensive boards so they were in the game.

This game showed once again one of the interesting things about this Blazer team. Particularly in light of the big trade the Sonics were involved in this team is built around Kevin Durant. Portland typically does a good job of making the opposing stars work hard for their shots and, while they typically have decent games, they seldom (Kobe Bryant excepted) go off for huge nights against the Blazers. However, role players have career nights with frightening regularity. This game was no exception.

Durant had a decent game...22 points on 6-15 shooting, 6 boards, 4 turnovers...but he had to work for it. Meanwhile, the guys killing Portland were Nick Collison and Luke Ridenour. It does not show in the box score but in the first half without Collison the game would have been a blow-out. He had 6 early points and numerous rebounds, hustle plays, and so forth. The entire section we were sitting in was muttering imprecations against him because, though it was "only" 6 points, they were 6 points that gave Seattle the lead in the first quarter and his 14 rebounds nearly put them over the top and nearly allowed Seattle to win the game.

Then Ridenour took over. He rained 3s from everywhere. Again, it was not the TOTAL number of points he scored...his modest 10 point total was hardly game-breaking...but the timing was key. Portland started the third quarter rather well and was on the verge of breaking the game open. The 3s Ridenour rained in broke the run and, for a time, the Blazer spirit. He single-handed changed the game from a Portland romp into a dog-fight that allowed Durant to come back in the 4th quarter after 2 relatively quiet ones and carry Seattle down the stretch. He made it a game but Portland held on for the 92-88 win.

This game spoke volumes about the current state of the Blazers. Take away their 13 game win streak and they are 9 games under .500. If they had played at that 36% clip during the 13 game stretch their record would be 24-34 which would rank slightly behind Sacramento. That actually seems a little closer to where this team actually is in terms of cohesiveness than their actual 29-25 record. This is a team that needs James Jones healthy, that needs to discover some offensive rhythm, and that needs to remember the magic that had them the hottest team in the league at one point. Friday night will be a good test. Seattle is not yet they Supersonics...they are more like the SadSonics at this point. Even as the second night of a back to back home and home series against the I-5 rivals Portland SHOULD beat Seattle in Seattle. The question is will they. It will be interesting to see if they step up and win a game they should or if Seattle can claw their way to a rare win.

Cleveland 84, Portland 83

With 4:26 to go in the game when LaMarcus Aldridge dropped in an easy jumper to give the Blazers an 11 point lead I felt like a genius. LeBron James was 9-23 from the field for 26 points...good, but definitely not among his best games, their shooting percentage was in the high 30s, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson were non-factors and the game was there for the taking.



There were several elements that had led to this point in the game. To start with, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw had done an excellent job on James. Most of his buckets had come on fast breaks or when the Blazers went to their zone. On the occasions he did break down Webster or Outlaw and get to the bucket Joel Przybilla hovered there to turn back his shots. James was getting extremely frustrated by these events. Nor was he getting much help from his team.



Fortunately for Cleveland, Portland was also struggling. Their bench shot a horrific 7 for 33 for the game and normally reliable Steve Blake was 4 for 11. For the game the Blazers would end up shooting just 35%. Still, they maintained a 6 - 12 point lead for the majority of the game.



But when you have a one man team down you need to put the pedal to the metal. Portland needed to expand on that lead and make it so one person could not come back and beat them. Nobody on Cleveland, with the possible exception of Drew Gooden, was stepping up. They did just enough to hang around in that 8 or 10 point deficit range.



Unfortunately for Portland the NBA elected to play 48 minutes instead of the 44 minutes Portland felt like playing. The Blazers shifted into Matador defense mode. James got uncontested shot after uncontested shot. Memo to Portland; this James kid is a good player. He dropped in a three. Gooden somehow got a shot to fall from the lane. James dropped in another three. The closest defenders wore Cavaliers jerseys. The game was tied. Outlaw saw what was happening and went right at James, dropping in a tough shot to give Portland back the lead. Portland got what they needed...James finally missed a shot, another 3...but Gooden got the offensive rebound and was fouled.



When he missed his second shot, Portland had another chance...but Ilgauskas got the offensive rebound. Inexplicably it was not James who took the next shot and when the 3 rimmed off, Portland had everything they needed in place. Well, everything except the willingness to put it in the hands of their most reliable 4th quarter performer, Outlaw...and when Blake's wide open trey rimmed out it was James time. Except he missed the lay-up.



So Portland set up their final possession. The play they had the most success with involved a side screen pick and roll with Roy and Aldridge. Their second best play had been working the ball to Outlaw on the right side and letting him create his own shot. So they wisely had Roy dribble down the clock, set no picks, and got only a no-chance off balance shot.



Still, with 4.9 seconds left they had a 1 point lead. Sure they had had numerous chances to extend it, had somehow survived a barrage of blown opportunities to claim defensive rebounds, had missed their open shots and then gotten no reasonable shot in their last possession, but they had the lead and 2 guys who had caused James problems all night.



So they instead put Brandon Roy on James. Huh? Where did that come from? Well, James must have thought this was practice because he looked like he was doing a layup drill. He cakewalked to the left, drifted down the lane and put in an uncontested layin. Oh, it did not look uncontested. Three Blazer jerseys were within a couple feet of him. They just did not bother to defend it. James is a great player and if nobody attempts to stop the drive or challenge the shot the results will be very favorable for the Cavaliers. James made it look easy and suddenly the Blazers were staring real long odds in the face with something like three tenths of a second and inexplicably one of their shortest players inbounding the ball. Cleveland coach Mike Brown put Ilgauksas in front of him which effectively ended the game.



The final box score shows James with 37 points on 13-29 shooting and that is what sets him apart from virtually every other player in the league. Whereas Roy struggled down the stretch, making no shots and getting no easy ones, James got open looks from outside and from inside and he made them. He turned a poor shooting, average scoring loss into a decent shooting night, great scoring night and a win for his team.



There has been a local debate over whether Roy should be an All-Star. I have not won popularity contests by suggesting that while he is clearly the Blazer MVP he is not yet at the All-Star level. Statistically speaking he is not one of the top 12 Western Conference players, though statistics do not tell the entire tale. But a night like this is where an All-Star earns their honors. Roy had a very good night...he rebounded well (7), distributed well (8 assists) and shot 7-16, totaling 16 points. But when it mattered, when he had to either score or identify the right person to get the ball he did not come through and defensively he was destroyed by James.



I am a huge Brandon Roy fan. His jersey is the first bit of apparel I have ever worn with any individual player's name on it. He is going to be a difference maker for this team for many, many years to come. But he is still evolving as a player and this game was an example of a game where he did not take the steps an All-Star needs to. And as has been happening more and more often of late, none of the role players stepped up in his place to pull the game out.



This game was all about James. He scored 44% of the Cavaliers points, over a quarter of their rebounds, and on a night the Cavaliers not named James all failed to make double digits he still found a way to pick off 4 assists, almost a third of their total of thirteen. It was the type of transcendent performance that makes games by players like James worth watching.



While I am disappointed that Portland lost I hope they use this as a learning experience and figure out ways to deliver that knockout blow. All season they have won the close games and perhaps they have come to count on that so they relax a bit as they seemed to do when Aldridge hit that jumper. But this time, not putting a team away when they had the chance came back to bite them and deservedly so. When you give a great player a chance, he takes it and this was a prime example.

24-19 Cleveland at 26-18 Portland

Prior to the season when our group of season ticket holders got together to draft our tickets there were only a handful of games I had on my "I really want to see this game" list. Boston was one, to see their transcendent collection of talent, Seattle was one to see the Oden-Durant match-up of instantaneously contributing rookies, and of course Cleveland to see King James, a player so good he essentially took down the Eastern Conference by himself last year. When you look at the Cavaliers roster it is hardly imposing. Yet some how, some way he took them to the Finals to experience the most one-sided thrashing we have seen in quite some time. Because as good as James is, the TEAMS in the Western Conference are simply that much better. Tonight should be another example of that.

The Lebrons are coming off a game between Lebron James and Kobe Bryant...err, I mean between the Cavaliers and the Lakers. That was a great example of two teams who have one exceptional, outstanding player and a bunch of supporting players who may or may not show up. James and Bryant had superlative games, so much so that it often seemed the other 8 players were props more than anything. The Cavaliers came out ahead because too often the Lakers go to the Kobe offense and James had a slightly better game.

That won't happen in Portland. Admittedly no player on the Blazers approaches James for sheer skill, at least as an individual. Few teams have any one player who does. But Portland somehow is better than the sum of its parts. If you put any given Blazer outside of Brandon Roy on any below average or average team in the league he will not change them into a competitive team single-handedly. James does that for the Cavaliers.

However, each Blazer knows his role and fills it to perfection. Joel Przybilla provides defense and rebounding but does not look to score except on offensive put-backs. Martell Webster provides defense and long-range shooting. Steve Blake keeps the turnovers down and provides timely shooting. Travis Outlaw provides massive infusions of energy, tough on the ball defense, and clutch scoring. Sergio Rodriguez provides a spark off the bench one game and hardly plays the next. Everyone accepts their role and does not complain about it.

If another team wanted to trade for any of these guys straight up I suspect Portland would get very little in return. Well, maybe they would get something for Outlaw...he is making enough of a name for himself that sometimes he isn't even called "Charles" by the TNT guys now. They actually know his name...but no All-Stars or prime-time players would be offered. Yet it would take such a player to contribute as much to this Blazer team as would be taken away. They are the epitome of a team...taken separately, outside of 2 or at most 3 players there is seemingly not much. But they fit together so well, play together so well, and work so hard to not let down their teammates that they turned their season into something special.

With that said, Cleveland does have a couple of things working in their favor. Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao are the type of players that give Portland fits. Neither is an elite player...in fact, I would be surprised if either was ever in a future All Star game. But they are energetic players that can score inside who are solid rebounders. Portland tends to give up big games to these type players. I would not be surprised to see one or the other of them end up with 15 - 20 points and a dozen rebounds...maybe even both of them. If they do that and Daniel Gibson has one of his better games the Cavaliers will sneak out with the win.

The more likely scenario has James having an "off night", at least by his standards, as a let-down after the big confrontation with Bryant. He will still be in the 25+ point range I would suspect but it will take him too many shots to get there. Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Gibson are the types of players Portland typically harasses into poor shooting nights. Cleveland will end up shooting less than 44% for the game and Portland should win fairly handily, again in the 10+ point range.

This might be a tad optimistic with the decent road record the Cavaliers have compiled at 11-12 but this game fits well into Portland's strengths so I am sticking with it. They are brimming with confidence after the huge comeback against the Hawks. It is also an important game. Right now Portland is 26-18 with 38 games remaining. They are 1/2 game behind the Jazz and tied with the Nuggets for the Division lead and it will probably take winning the division to get into the playoffs. That will be tough to do. A quick glance at their remaining schedule is pretty revealing.

They have 4 tilts with the Lakers, 3 with the Suns, 2 each with the Rockets, Mavericks, and Warriors, and another game with the Spurs, not to mention road games with the Pistons and Cavaliers and another game with Boston. Every one of those is a tough game. Winning half of those would be very impressive...and unlikely. I would not be shocked if they won 6 or fewer of those games. I actually see them going 19-19 the rest of the way which would give them 45 wins on the season. That would be a huge improvement over last year and a very successful season, though it would probably leave them out of the playoffs. Even to achieve that will be tough.

They have winnable home games against the Cavaliers, Knicks, Nuggets and Bulls...let's say they stumble once, probably against the Nuggets. Then they go on the road for 4 with the Pistons, Pacers, Rockets and Mavericks. 1-3 is very possible there. Then take a look at this stretch of games to close out the season: They visit the Lakers and Rockets, come home to play the Spurs and Lakers, go to Sacramento, home for Dallas and Memphis, and then end the year on the road in Phoenix. That is a tough stretch where they could conceivably end the year losing 7 of 8. There are 2 stretches where it is not inconceivable they will be 2-9. For them to finish .500 from here on out they are going to need to win every game they "should" win and a few that are toss-ups or probable losing efforts.

Then again, this team has surprised me all year. I did not see them winning thrice against the Jazz or beating Utah in Denver so perhaps they will exceed my expectations, split the very tough games mentioned above, win every game they "should" against the teams like Seattle, Minnesota, Memphis, the Clippers and so forth, go 26-12 down the stretch and thunder into the playoffs with a nigh unbelievable 52-30 record. I would love to see that happen and be there cheering all the way. Actually, even if they do a little more poorly than the expected 19-19 we will be right there cheering all the way as this team has already exceeded most people's expectations.

The team is headed the right direction. There are solid character guys playing their assigned roles uncomplainingly and have identified their strengths and weaknesses which will be addressed next year with the arrival of this year's draft pick...So they should win Wednesday and we will see what happens from there.

Portland 94, Hawks 93

I admit it. I was wrong. I figured Portland would win this game easily by 10+ points. This one should be a blow-out, a laugher. It almost was...just in the other direction.

Portland started out all right with LaMarcus "LA" Aldridge scoring 4 quick points and Joel Przybilla adding a pair of awkward-looking free throws for a 6-2 lead. But after scoring 6 points in 3 minutes they could manage just 9 for the next 13. It was a team effort with turnovers, missed shots...most of them open looks from favorite positions...and missed free throws. Meanwhile, the defense was porous, allowing layins, alley-oops, uncontested drives, and leaving guys alone under the basket for a variety of dunks by the Hawks. When most of your shots are layups or dunks you are going to make a lot of them. Success breeds success. Suddenly an easy game looked even easier...just for the opposite team. The Hawks built a substantial 29-19 lead after one quarter.

Of course, the Blazer faithful were not worried. We were watching our guys take the shots we know they make high percentages on and our vaunted bench was going to make everything all right. It certainly looked that way early as the first 4 Portland possessions resulted in 2 dunks by Travis Outlaw, a short jumper by Channing Frye and a wide open three from James Jones to make it just 34-28 with 9:36 left in the quarter. Coldness, thy name is the Blazers offense. Over 4 minutes later when Brandon "The Natural" Roy dropped in free throws Atlanta was up a dozen at 42-28.

As a casual Hawks fan who wishes them well when they are playing any team not name the Blazers, I wish I could report this was their phenomenally talented young players were making spectacular shots against tough defense, holding out promise for their future. In reality they were making layin after layin. Well, layins when they were not throwing down thunderous dunks. On the bright side, no Blazers were "posterized". On the dark side, that is because the Hawks shots were so open there was no Blazer in the picture frame. It was pretty brutal.

At the other end, the Blazers shots WERE now being contested. The Hawks were extending their defense and shot after shot taken by the Blazers was against the shot clock or with a hand in their face. The combination of outstanding Hawks defense and pathetic Portland defense was becoming lethal. They built an 18 point lead before Roy closed the half with a spectacular drive and free throw after the foul. The half time score was 52-37 and it looked ugly.

Going back to the Houston game, the Blazers had now gone 4 consecutive quarters where 19 points was their BEST score for a quarter. Not good. Furthermore, Aldridge had a total of 5 shots. He had shown early on he could score almost at will as Atlanta had nobody who was even troubling his shot. Yet after his first couple scores he got just 3 shots for the half. Roy was a game-time decision to play due to the flue, the Hawks were playing great defense, and Portland was not finding ways to score. It looked bad. Still, I commented to my wife, "They can still win this."

It did not look like it at the start of the third. Aldridge turned the ball over and missed his first shot, though his second was good and Roy hit a layin, but Atlanta was expanding their lead. They also were doing a great job. When Roy started his pick and roll Atlanta was doubling Roy and forcing him out 30 feet from the basket. Portland was not rotating the ball and their stagnant offense was not making the Hawks pay for having two defenders so far from the basket. As late as 1:02 of the third quarter Atlanta had a 15 point lead at 73-58. On the bright side, that meant Portland had finally broken the 20 point barrier for a quarter. On the dark side, they still could not stop Atlanta. But Outlaw drained a three, they picked off a Joe Johnson pass and Frye hit a tough shot with just a couple seconds left on the clock for a quick 5-0 run to get them within 10 after three. It was the first quarter they have won in a while and a marked turnaround from their normal third quarter woes.

The start of the 4th quarter saw something that drew a lot of distaste from the Portland crowd. Williams...I believe it was Marvin, though it might have been Shelden...got behind the Blazers defense and was on his way for the break-away dunk. No big deal, by this point it felt like Portland had given up 10 or 15 dunks. But for whatever reason James Jones made a dirty play. He grabbed his shoulders from behind and essentially horse-collared him to the ground. It was properly called a Flagrant 2 (I believe that is the more serious one), but it also did a couple things.

First, it completely killed the crowd. That is the sort of play we might have expected in the Rasheed Wallace-Damon Stoudemire-Darius Miles type of days. It is not the sort of thing we expect from this team. It is a young team that plays the game right...hard but clean. No need for the Detroit Pistons type play of the late 90s, none of the Rick Mahorn/Dennis Rodman/Shaquille O Neal type nonsense. Blazers fans simply do not like dirty play or cheap shots and this was exactly that. And Jones knew it instantly.

A couple other season ticket holders sitting behind me even had a short discussion about how much of a rally killer it was. Prior to that play the Blazers fans were into the game. That 10 point deficit felt like a lead. The 4th quarter is ours, we knew the game was in hand. After that play people were shifting in their seats and one family even left.

I suspect we will not see anything like that from Jones again. Fortunately, Williams was not hurt. And though Atlanta did not score on the possession after the free throws it felt like far more than a 2 point swing. It felt like they were down 15 or 16 points again. The crowd was completely taken out of the game.

And so it went. After 2-1/2 minutes of the quarter Atlanta held a 14 point lead. It was at this point that McMillan made a great coaching move. Instead of setting picks for Roy, which Atlanta clearly had the number of, he started just running clear-outs for Roy. The double teams disappeared and the offense exploded. Outlaw then changed the game. He hit back to back threes with a hand in his face from the left side foul line extended. The second one pulled Portland within 8.

As late as the 5 minute mark Atlanta was maintaining an 11 points lead. Sure, Portland was scoring but Atlanta was too...when they could hold on to the ball. Outlaw hit a jumper...Atlanta turned it over. Aldridge scored...Atlanta got an alley-oop throw down. Jones hit a jumper and wonder of wonders, Johnson missed a shot. Roy got a three point play and after the timeout hit the free throw to pull Portland within 4. Atlanta got another alley-oop dunk. See a pattern here? Where was the Blazer interior defense?

After an Aldridge bucket to pull Portland within 4 again Roy somehow, someway blocked a shot. It was an impossible block and when he scored after a clear out it was a 2 point game. He then forced Johnson into an air ball after Johnson spent almost the entire shot clock trying to break him down. Roy drove and scored again and for the first time since zero apiece the game was tied.

For the first time this season, I saw Portland force a team to take a timeout when they could not get the ball inbounds. After the reset, they got it in to Johnson.

He then forced Johnson into an air ball with 9 seconds left. Once more Portland went to the Roy isolation at the top of the key. Once more he broke down his defender. This time he drew the foul and with 2 seconds went to the line.

And missed the first one. Amazing. Here is one of the most clutch guys the Blazers have ever had, certainly the most clutch guy since Terry Porter, and he missed. But the second was good and all the Hawks could manage was a wild buzzer-beating three attempt that never had a chance and they pulled out the improbable 1 point win.

Some amazing things happened in this game. To start with, after shooting 1-10 on threes in the first half Portland went 4-6 from downtown in the second half. With just about 38% shooting for about 2-1/2 quarters they ended up shooting 50% for the game. Atlanta shot 52.6% for the game, but just 2-11 from the three point line. Yet despite the ease with which they got inside most of the game, crunch time became a heave fest from the extra distance, which combined with a bevy of turnovers allowed Portland to make up 11 points in 5 minutes.

When Portland was struggling to score McMillan made an interesting substitution. Aldridge sat from the 2:27 mark of the 3rd quarter while Frye played until the 5:01 mark of the 4th. Now, Frye was playing very well (14 points on 6-8, 6 rebounds) but so was Aldridge (16 points on 7-11, 8 boards...and 3 of his misses were first period). Of the two, Aldridge is the better interior defender, and area where Portland was struggling. Aldridge ended up playing only a shade under thirty minutes for the game which I found curious. Obviously, however, McMillan pulled the right strings.

Overall it was an entertaining game and speaks well of this Portland team. Behind by double digits for the better part of all 4 quarters they somehow found a way to get key stops, adapt their offense and find ways to score just enough points to pull out a game they easily could have lost. Atlanta played great for 43 minutes. Both teams left it all on the floor and at the end of the day the better team won...but just barely. This should be an exciting rivalry for the next few years as bot teams have numerous young, promising players who can develop into something special. Unfortunately for Hawks fans, this collapse has the feeling of having the same impact the Philadelphia game did on Portland where it might send them into a tailspin. Meanwhile, Portland should be fired up for the upcoming Cavaliers game and that can only be a good thing.

Houston 89, Portland 79

Going into the game it looked bad for Portland. In fact, in my preview I said, "With that said, tired legs make it hard to go after the rebounds aggressively and Houston is pretty solid on the boards. Look for a poor shooting night from Portland to be compounded by rebounding woes and Houston will sneak out a road win."

I concluded it with the comment that, "I would not be surprised to see the Blazers show their heart and win this but I expect a Rockets victory, probably in the 8 - 12 point range."

As they did in the New Orleans game Portland started out strong. Joel Przybilla got the crowd involved with his block on a Chuck Hayes dunk attempt. Roy was scoring seemingly at will and then the other Blazers got involved. Yao Ming got off to a rough start with o-3 shooting and 3 turnovers. Houston's leading scorer after the first quarter had exactly 3 points...Ming on 3-4 from the line. However, they had 8 people scoring so the 23-16 Portland lead was nowhere near as large as it could have been.

Former Blazer Bonzi Wells led a quick 7-0 run to pull Houston into a tie and then one of the best surprises for the Blazers this year, Travis Outlaw, stepped up with a quick 4 spot of his own. Tracy McGrady and LaMarcus Aldridge put on a show with 8 points apiece. With Roy (9 points), Aldridge and Outlaw all scoring Portland managed to regain the lead and led 50-42 at the half.

All year the third quarter has belonged to the opponents. A good 3rd for Portland is typically where they only have a 4 or 5 point deficit which they then erase in the fourth. This night the 3rd would be another problem. They started with 4 missed shots and 4 turnovers, got 1 of 2 free throws from Martell Webster, then added another 3 missed shots and a turnover before Roy went 1-2 from the line. While they were scoring just 2 point in the first 6 minutes and change of the 3rd Houston was getting balanced contributions and scored 14 to take a 56-52 lead. As they have done so many times As they have done so often this year the Blazers responded with a quick 6-2 run and despite scoring just 12 points in the third quarter they were tied at 62 after three.

At that point it seemed like a game the Blazers should win. They have owned the 4th quarter all year, especially at home. Houston is a very strong team, one of the teams that I believe has underperformed to this point in the season, in large part due to injury, but home games are the ones you need to win.

And it looked like Portland would. The teams traded baskets and leads. The Rockets extended to a 3 point lead at the 7:47 mark and from there the Blazers were pulling within 1 instead of taking the lead. But we have seen that before. Late in the quarter Roy and Outlaw take over. The defense clamps down, all the rebounds that they could not corral earlier in the game now fall in Blazer hands, and different guys step up every game. However, after Aldridge brought the Blazers within 1 at 74-73 the Blazers saw McGrady drain a 3, Luis Scola scored, and Carl Landry complete a 3 point play while Jack turned the ball over, Aldridge and Outlaw missed shots, and suddenly the deficit was 8 with just 2:49 remaining.

Houston is a good team and they did what they needed to close out the game. It was a game that with 5 minutes to go could have been won by either team. Most of the season this is a game Portland would have won but lately they have not been finishing games, starting with their double overtime loss in Toronto. But there are other factors that came into play in this game.

Portland shot a paltry 35.7% for the game. Oddly, they shot better from 3-point range (41.7%) than they did overall. You can get away with poor shooting if you are forcing the opponent to shoot poorly, winning the rebound battle, and not turning the ball over. Houston shot 40%, out rebounded Portland 48-30, and only had 4 more turnovers than Portland. So those extra rebounds made the difference.

18 extra rebounds and 4 extra turnovers essentially equals a 14 possession advantage. Both Portland and Houston made 5 threes and 24 free throws. Houston took 4 more 2 point field goals than Portland. In other words, that 6% shooting percentage difference resulted in 5 extra made field goals and gave them their 10 point margin.

Earlier this season Charles Barkley, in his job as ESPN analyst, was criticized by many Blazer fans for asserting that Portland would not make the playoffs because they cannot get easy baskets. This game was an example of his prediction coming true. Just as the Hornets did, the Rockets figured out how to keep Roy out of the lane and keep him from making layins or dishing for easy baskets. This time Outlaw did not take over and pick up the slack. Meanwhile the Rockets got balanced scoring from their entire team...8 players scored at least 8 points each, and none more than 15...and deservedly won the game.


From the pre-season I have been enthused about this Blazer team. Sure, the loss of their #1 pick was going to hurt but this is a team with talent. Roy and Aldridge make a solid 1-2 punch, I expected 12-15 points from Martell Webster and Jarrett Jack in support, and Joel Przybilla fills the bill of defense and rebounding without demanding the ball. However, even with that enthusiasm I pegged them for maybe a 42-44 win team. This game is illustrative of why I still think that is about the right number.

I expect a lot of things will be said about "fatigue" and "the hardest game of a road trip is the first one home" but the fact remains the Blazers put themselves in a position to win and closed out with 12 and 17 points. Good teams might let fatigue affect things like that...great teams don't. Somehow I cannot see the Michael Jordan led Bulls teams of the early 90s losing a game like this. That is the difference between this Blazer team winning 50 and winning the low to mid 40s total they will achieve. They let winnable games against good teams get away.

That is not to take anything away from the Rockets. They are a very good team that will end with a better record than the Blazers in no small part because in games like this where their stars play sub-par games (Ming had 11 points on 2-8 shooting, 10 rebounds, but 4 turnovers and McGrady shot just 5-14 and had another 5 turnovers) their role players step up and take away games.

Defense and rebounding win a lot of games. Both teams played some very good defense but only one team got the rebounds and that was the difference.