4 - 3 Portland @ 2 - 6 Philadelphia

Portland just did not compete against Denver. One suspects they will be a little more prepared in Philadelphia. And even though it is a weak Philadelphia team, this is a key game for the Blazers season.

Coming in, people will no doubt make much of their 0-4 road record. But look at who those teams have been and how Portland has played them: San Antonio, Portland had a shot at winning. Charlotte, they started slow but made a run. Against Houston and Denver they pretty much laid down. Still, those are 4 tough places to win and their performance against 2 of them was very respectable.

Portland is a much better team than Philadelphia and should win. If they do not, for whatever reason, then the road struggles will become a thousand pound gorilla and they will struggle on the road for the rest of the season. Conversely, if they win...as they should...then that will build their confidence and lead to a few road wins this season, which they will need to reach their post-season berth which I expect for them.

Philadelphia, like Portland, is a young team. Philadelphia, unlike Portland, lacks the talent to go places, and Philadelphia plays in the weak Eastern Conference. They try to mask this by slowing the game down and minimizing the number of possessions to hide the talent discrepancy.

Starting Line-ups
Frye is coming off his season high. He will continue to get 4 - 6 points a night, then give way to the defense and rebounding of Przybilla. Samuel Dalembert is no stud, but he will have a slight advantage over Frye, scoring wise.

Aldridge had an off night against Denver and still shot almost 50% and went for 15 and 9. Philadelphia apparently plays a small line-up. I cannot even figure out who their power forward is. As near as I can tell they start Iguodala, Andre Miller, Willie Green, and Kyle Korver alongside Dalembert, with Reggie Evans logging heavy minutes. Of those, Evans is the monster at 6'8". The others are 6'6", 6'2", 6'3", and 6'6" respectively. Only 7'0" Jason Smith is hitting about 17 minutes a game and his statistical contribution is negligible, 5 points and 3 boards.

Meanwhile, Portland has more size across the board and more talent across the board. The Sixers will struggle to score and to keep up with Portland on the boards, a rare luxury for Portland who usually gets outrebounded.

This is one of those rare nights where if Portland plays an average game, they win by a lot. If they implode, they should still win, just it will be close. They are that much better than the 76ers.

Portland by 10+

Denver 100, Portland 93

For Portland to win they need Webster to come out of his slump, Aldridge to have a monster game, Jack to continue his outstanding run of bench play, and Anthony and Iverson to have poor shooting games. If that happens, they will win. Otherwise, this could be a blow-out the other way. Portland has the talent to win any game on their schedule, the question is whether they have figured that out yet. I would not be surprised to see a Portland win...but I don't expect it.Denver by 8+ points


Webster: 12 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4-10 shooting.
Aldridge: 15 points, 9 rebounds, 5 - 11 shooting, 5-9 free throws


Portland came out slow...they looked like they were moving at shoot-around speed or running half-speed. There was no energy. Sparked by an offensive explosion by Channing Frye...a season-high tying 8 points...they stayed close for a while and were only down by 5, but anyone could tell that barring a burst of energy they were going nowhere all night.

The Blazers never looked interested and could not buy a bucket. Coming into the night they had the 4th highest field goal percentage in the league. That will drop a bit after their 39% effort.

This is the first time I have seen this Blazers team not compete. Some rumored statements I heard indicated they were awed by Iverson and Anthony. This is unfortunate. They have played, and played well, against better players than either of those. I would rather have Duncan than Anthony, Paul than Iverson...actually, Iverson is another guy like Marbury or Francis. If he were a Blazer I would not be a fan of the team.

Meanwhile, Denver proved to be a pretty classless team. K-mart and Camby both delivered head-shots with their elbows and then yapped about it. Portland got into a complaining mode and even Aldridge went after Camby at one point.

Win or lose, this is a trend I hope ends. Portland has been real good about not complaining and about just having fun playing a great game. On a night where they just were not into it and their shots weren't falling, they momentarily deteriorated into a complaining team looking to the officials to bail them out. Hopefully McMillan jumps all over that and gets them back on track.

Portland showed early on they could play with Denver. Expect them to do much better on their next trip. For now, it is a disappointing game, but just one loss. Expect them to get it together and win out on this road trip.

Preview: 4-3 Portland at 5-3 Denver

Denver is a real Jekyll and Hyde team this year. They are capable of beating the top teams...or of losing to the worst. Portland falls squarely in between those. They are not a playoff series winning team (yet), but they are no longer low echelon, either.

This game is troublesome to forecast. Portland won 4 straight against 3 tough opponents and one weaker foe...but all 4 were at home. Denver, after a slow start, has won 3 straight and is starting a long home stretch with 13 of their next 18 at home. Will they overlook Portland?

Center
Frye is consistent...4 - 6 points, then disappear. That is okay because Przybilla is playing well off the bench. Denver counters with Marcus Camby...he scores more and rebounds better than either Portland center. Defensively he likes to block shots, too.

Advantage: Denver

Power Forward
Aldridge is creating some buzz for Most Improved Player and "future all-star". Nene Hilario is out and Kevin Martin is coming back from injury. This should be another monster game for Aldridge as Denver tries to get in with guys who hustle and play hard but are nowhere near as talented.

Advantage: Portland

Small Forward
Webster is in a shooting slump, and those were home games. On the other side of the coin Carmelo Anthony is also shooting poorly...but he is putting up a lot more shots and hitting enough to score almost 26 a game. He also passes better than Webster.

Advantage: Denver

Shooting Guard
Roy is a stud and the Blazers are doing a better job of getting him more involved early. If that continues he will continue to put up good numbers and the win total will keep increasing. Opposing him is head case J.R. Smith. Smith will pull off eye-popping, athletic moves and score a little bit but he simply isn't in Roy's class. Not many players are at this position.

Advantage: Portland

Point Guard
I am becoming a believer in Blake. Sure, he does not score a lot (1 point against the Pistons) but he consistently gets 8 - 9 assists and seldom turns the ball over (1 against the Pistons) and does not need a lot of shots. On the other side you have shoot first, second and third Iverson...who suddenly has become a shoot first and third, but pass second point guard, averaging a very respectable 8.6 assists and shooting better than he has in many, many years. The career 42% shooter who shot too much and scored too few points for the number of shots he took is suddenly shooting a respectable 46% and that, in my eyes, means this is pretty much the best year of his career sans the one where he pretty much carried the Sixers to the Finals with essentially no help. Everything Blake does, Iverson is doing better.

Advantage: Denver

Bench
Portland has had a really good effort from the bench since Jack and Przybilla moved there. It only gets better when Outlaw plays well. Denver has time-absorbers who will hustle and try but simply are not as good as Portland's bench.

What needs to happen
Denver loves to run and this could be an opportunity for Portland to get out and get some easy buckets for Aldridge, Jack and Roy to counteract the firepower of Anthony and Iverson. However, it will be the 2nd night of a back to back with a night of travel between and Roy's heel is a consideration. Denver has been playing with a chip on their shoulder and will want to establish their home court.

For Portland to win they need Webster to come out of his slump, Aldridge to have a monster game, Jack to continue his outstanding run of bench play, and Anthony and Iverson to have poor shooting games. If that happens, they will win. Otherwise, this could be a blow-out the other way. Portland has the talent to win any game on their schedule, the question is whether they have figured that out yet. I would not be surprised to see a Portland win...but I don't expect it.

Denver by 8+ points

Portland 102, Detroit 94

I said, "Post-Sonic add: Detroit started fast, almost ran Seattle off the court, then gave it back, letting Seattle tie it with about 2:35 left in the game. Seattle, however, could not finish. Portland can because they have the talent in Roy, Aldridge and Webster to create the easy scoring opportunities they need to at the end of the game. I don't think Billups and Prince will both have the bad games they had against Seattle, but neither will Hamilton have the transcendent game.Portland should win this one, but it will be a close game."


So let's go to the scoreboard.
Early on, Detroit rode a 14-6 run that, except for a late 3 by Outlaw, would have given them an 8 point lead after one. The clutch shot by Travis, however, left it a reasonable 5 point deficit. Aldridge and Webster played well, combining for 11 points while Billups scored steadily and Wallace hit three late 3s and a deuce to give him a monster 11 point quarter on his own.

Portland outscored the Pistons by 2 in the second period led by 10 from Jarrett Jack and even Przybilla got in on the action, pitching in 6 points. The 53-50 half-time score was encouraging for Portland fans as Roy and Webster had yet to get going but Aldridge, Jack, and Outlaw were all having strong games.

The third quarter was all about the Blazer stars as Aldridge and Roy each scored 10 points in the quarter...the rest of the team combined for 8. Meanwhile, Portland put on the clamps on defense, holding the Pistons to 21 points after 27 and 27 in the first 2. Entering the 4th quarter it was all tied at 74.

The 4th quarter, the Blazers and the Pistons traded the lead for 3 minutes with 4 lead changes in that span. Portland took over with a 12-4 run that the Pistons never recovered from, never closing closer than 3 points with a shade over 2 minutes to go. Down the stretch the Blazers played tough defense and made 6 of 8 free throws to close out the game with an 8 point victory to go 4 - 3 on the season.


It was a great victory over a tough, talented team. They outscored a good Pistons bench 48 - 23 and their big guns for the most part played well. Aldridge hit 22 points and 10 rebounds against a tough defender in Rasheed Wallace and did it on solid 9-16 shooting while Roy added 20 points on an identical 9-16. Webster struggled again but he will get back on track soon.

This was a great, great home stand for the Blazers. They knocked off a formerly undefeated Hornet team most people have slotted for the playoffs, defeated title contender Dallas, handily beat the team they should (Memphis) and knocked off a strong Pistons team that had lost but 1 game previously. Well done, and let's keep the excitement rolling.

Preview: 3-3 Blazers vs. (4-1) Detroit

After tomorrow, the Pistons figure to roll in 5-1 to visit Portland. Their only loss was a choke job to the otherwise winless Bulls. Detroit looks to be in fine form.

Stop me if you have heard this one before...the Pistons don't rely on one or two big stars, they use balance to get it done. 4 guys score in double figures, none of them over 19.2 per game. They generate offense with team play and passing...2 guys are averaging 6.8 and 7.0 assists.

Center
Rasheed Wallace is a familiar sight to Blazer fans. Averaging about 16 points and 7 boards, he figures to demolish Frye who seems to score 4 - 6 points a night and then go hide on the bench.

Advantage: Detroit

Power Forward
There was a time when Antonio McDyess was one of the most promising forwards in the entire league, back when he was with the up and coming Nuggets. Injury took its toll and now he is just a well-traveled place holder, though still capable of a big game. Normally he will get 10 - 15 points and do some rebounding. Aldridge, meanwhile, is playing very well. He has to have his confidence boosted by the last 2 games and should come out strong.

Advantage: Portland

Small Forward
Whither Tayshaun Prince? Is he the stud carrying the Pistons on his back and dropping 30+ point nights on people? Or is he the 5 point scorer of a couple nights ago? Both...and neither. Prince knows his role and this year, for whatever reason, he is struggling to mesh with the team. This is very unusual for him and I doubt it will last much longer. Meanwhile, Webster is coming off his worst night of the year. He took just 3 shots, missed half his free throws...so two struggling guys. It will be interesting to see which team involves their guy in the offense better. That team has a great shot at the win.

Edge: Even

Shooting Guard
As a general rule, this position is the Blazers biggest advantage. Roy does so many things well. He scores in the mid to high teens, he rebounds, he passes. Even when he runs into a shooting guard who outscores him, his box-score filling performances give him an advantage. The Pistons are one of the few teams that counter with someone who is his equal or perhaps even superior. Richard "Rip" Hamilton might be that guy. Roy and Hamilton have very, very similar stat lines. This should be a very entertaining battle.

Edge: Even

Point Guard
Steve Blake would need to be Brandon Roy to give the Blazers an equal to Chauncey Billups. Billups and Hamilton are pretty much clones of each other. This could be a long night for Blake as both guys he might face are solid, solid defenders.

Edge: Detroit

Bench:
Detroit does not have anyone particularly explosive...but they have 4 guys who will each get 5 - 10 points, averaging about 33 points per game. Meanwhile Portland has the explosive Jack, the defensive Przybilla, and the up and down Outlaw. It depends on which Portland bench shows up. If Jack unleashes 20 again and Outlaw has his breakout game this could be a huge advantage for Portland. Conversely, if Outlaw gets lost and Jack comes back to earth it could be a huge advantage for the Pistons.

This game could go just about any way. Portland should come in confident and rested. Roy, Aldridge and Webster all need to have big games and they need to score when the opportunity presents itself. Detroit is, as they always seem to be, an excellent defensive team and points might be difficult to come by.

If Portland plays their best game they can run it to 4-0 at home, if they fail to box out and don't pass to the open man, it could be a long night. I will revisit this after the Pistons-Sonics game when I see where the Pistons head is at.


Post-Sonic add: Detroit started fast, almost ran Seattle off the court, then gave it back, letting Seattle tie it with about 2:35 left in the game. Seattle, however, could not finish. Portland can because they have the talent in Roy, Aldridge and Webster to create the easy scoring opportunities they need to at the end of the game. I don't think Billups and Prince will both have the bad games they had against Seattle, but neither will Hamilton have the transcendant game.

Portland should win this one, but it will be a close game.

Blazers 92, Mavericks 81

I will admit to being surprised. I thought the Mavericks might come in a bit fired up. And there was a fired-up team on the floor. They came out scoring and scoring and scoring...fortunately, it was the Blazers. They tallied 28, probably their biggest first quarter. How did it happen? Well, they went to Aldridge regularly and Roy did some shooting to. With their stars tallying 8 each in the first quarter, the Blazers took a 6 point lead into the second.

One thing I thought the Blazers needed to pull of the upset was a strong game from Outlaw and another was some work on the offensive boards. Outlaw had 7 first half rebounds and both he and Przybilla worked the offensive boards, though the rebounds seldom led to points. Even though they did not often score the second chance points, they made Dallas work on defense and psychologically, getting the stop, then seeing your opponent get a second chance is tough.

Meanwhile, Roy added 6 points in the second and Aldridge added 4. After a fast start, (7 points in the first 7:32), Nowitzki still had just 7 points. Portland took a 7 point lead into the half and for the second night in a row had 49 points at the break.

The third quarter was a good one for the Blazers as Roy scored, distributed the ball, and the Blazers extended to a 13 point lead, though it was again a slow scoring one. Somehow they were keeping the Mavericks offense in check.

The 4th quarter was all about Roy as he tallied 11 of the Blazers 21 points. For the first time in the game Dallas outscored the Blazers in a quarter and for the first time they hit the 25 point mark...but it was just too much Roy as he had a career high 32 points and another 7 assists. For those keeping track, that means (3 pointers and converted 3 point plays not included) he was responsible for 46 of the Blazers 92 points. That is some star power.

Meanwhile, Maverick studs Nowitzki and Terry had 11 and 16 points respectively, and both shot poorly.

I am again disappointed in my lack of faith. Everything was in place to predict the upset and I just could not pull the trigger. But Roy had a huge game, Aldridge had an "average" game (18 pts, 8 reb, 50% shooting), and Outlaw had a better game than he has recently (14 pts on 5-8 shooting, 10 boards, 4 assists). This was what needed to happen for the Blazers to win and they made it happen. 3-3 feels pretty good, especially entering a stretch where they can reasonably be expected to go 6-3 or even 7-2. Next up: the Pistons this coming Tuesday. We will see if they can keep their momentum going.

Preview; 4-1 Dallas at 2-3 Portland

Dallas is coming off an emotional road win over the team that upset them in last years playoffs. Portland is coming off a more difficult than expected win over Memphis at home. This has all the makings of an upset opportunity for Portland. Unfortunately, it is not going to happen.

Center
For whatever reason the Blazers insist on running their first couple of plays for Channing Frye. These are also (thankfully) usually the last two plays they run for him. Fortunately, they only have to contend with DeSagana Diop, a guy who will play defense and rebound but pretty much only scores on broken plays and offensive rebounds.

Edge: Even

Power Forward
Dirk Nowitski was the MVP last year. His numbers are down a bit this year and he has struggled against Portland in the last few meetings. On the other side of the ball, this is one of Portland's strongest positions. Aldridge is coming off a huge game and this will be a good opportunity for him to step up and show he is a prime time player. On the down side, at times he is sometimes foul prone so that might be a concern. He is good enough to play it even on a good night or even outscore his opponent if Portland feeds him the ball, runs plays for him, and gets out in transition. Still, when you are up against the reigning MVP...it is a tough night.

Edge: Dallas

Small Forward
I am not convinced Portland knows how good Webster can be. They hide him for far too much of the game. If they ran a few plays for him and looked for him a bit more often he could be a 20 - 25 point scorer. Instead he is locked in about 16 - 18 points almost every night. Across the way we find Josh Howard, the Maverick's leading scorer this year at 24 per game.

Edge: Dallas

Shooting Guard
As always, Roy is the Blazers best player. Stackhouse can score with anybody but Roy is a better all-around player. This will be a fun battle to watch.

Edge: Portland

Point Guard
Devin Harris reportedly will not be there so Jason Terry returns to the starting line-up more than likely. Terry, like Jack, has exploded in a reserve role. But whether starting or coming off the bench, he is lethal. Blake is a solid point guard who gets the Blazers into their offense well and does a good job of distributing the ball but he is not in Terry's class.

Edge: Dallas

Bench
Jarrett Jack has been tearing it up since being moved to the bench. He relishes that role. Unfortunately, the rest of the bench has been struggling. James Jones is out with knee issues (where have I heard that before?) and Outlaw is struggling to find his shot. The Mavericks are missing Eddie Jones and with Terry in the starting line-up they lose a lot of punch. But they do have solid players in Devean George and Brandon Bass and the rest of their team fills their roles well.

Edge: even

This is a good opportunity for the Blazers to pull off the upset. But to do so, they have to play their zone better than they did against the Grizzlies. Dallas simply has too many good shooters to get away with leaving them open. Defensively, if the continue playing their swiss-cheese defense they could see Dallas eclipse the 110 mark easily.

On the other side of the ball, Golden State showed the way. Dallas is susceptible to penetration. It gets them scrambling and they give up a lot of second chance opportunities when someone penetrates. If Portland's guards, Jack, Blake, and Roy, penetrate and their bigs crash the boards they can wreak havoc and put a lot of points on the board. This might be a game where Sergio Rodriguez can do major damage with his ability to get inside almost at will. Webster needs to hit his open shots, which he should get plenty of, and Aldridge and Przybilla need to work the boards.

If those things happen and Outlaw comes out of his funk you will see an upset win by Portland. Otherwise, look for Dallas to win by double digits.