1-1 Portland at 1-1 Phoenix

Coming off the emotional one point home win against the Spurs, the Blazers face another team that has been a tremendous nemesis. Suns games have been an exercise in futility for the Blazers recently. It isn't just that they have lost 9 straight...spanning more than the length of Brandon Roy's career...it is that they have not even completed.

At least games with the Spurs had been close. Phoenix, however, tends to blow Portland out. A lot of it started with Amare Stoudemire.

Early in the season last year he had gotten inside the head of LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge had some extremely ineffectual games as a result and other Blazers shot poorly. Late in the season LA showed some improvement and it seems a match-up he is now ready to face. Of course, it is not the same Phoenix team that Portland will visit.

Interestingly enough, Joel Przybilla seems to do an above average job on Shaquille O'Neal. Despite the fact O'Neals' numbers looked good overall against the Vanilla Gorilla, those numbers were largely skewed by one game where Joel played poorly and O'Neal went off. 

As a general rule, Przybilla makes O'Neal take a lot of shots to get his points and does a nice job on the boards. He does not turn the match-up into a draw by any stretch of the imagination, but he generally at least makes the points coming out of the center into tough ones.

Joel's ability to match up one on one with the Big Cactus allows the other Blazers to stay with their men instead of fading low to double team. Unfortunately, they historically have still been lit up. 

Steve Blake struggles with guards who penetrate. He showed last night against Tony Parker that little factoid has not changed. Steve Nash figures to have a field day against him. The penetration of Nash is what will lead to open shots for Amare Stoudemire, Raja Bell, Grant Hill, and the other Phoenix shooters. 

It does not help that Stoudemire is quicker and stronger than Aldridge. He already scores easily and when that ability is amplified by the break-downs of the Blazer perimeter defenders, Stouedmire figures to have some big, big nights.

The Suns also are switching up their defensive structure under former Blazer great Terry Porter. It remains to be seen how completely they will buy into his system, but so far this season the points they are giving up seem to be down a bit. In Bell they have a superior wing defender, and in Stoudemire and O'Neal they have some serious rebounding potential. 

That makes it imperative for Portland to shoot a good percentage, something they have yet to accomplish this season. Roy looked like he was starting to get his groove back against the Spurs, as was Aldridge. This is a good sign as the Phoenix defenders are similar to the Spurs who matched up with them.

Bell is not as good a defender as Bruce Bowen, so in theory Roy will be able to get some good looks at the basket as well as create some open shots for his teammates. Aldridge will have to figure out ways to keep Stoudemire from poking the ball away as he did so effectively last year, but if LA can do that, he should score the ball well.

Meanwhile, the need to guard Roy and Aldridge should put a lesser defender on Travis Outlaw. This can be good or bad. It is bad if Outlaw falls in love with his jump shot and starts bombing away from the perimeter.

To be sure, Outlaw can be deadly when he is on. His jab step/fall back jumper is incredibly tough even to contest, much less block. Unfortunately, he gets overconfident and goes to that move to often from a little to deep on the floor. 

Conversely, when he penetrates good things tend to happen for Portland. The defense has to scramble which creates some holes for offensive rebounding and often leads to foul problems for the big men. Outlaw has the speed, agility, and quickness to create havoc when he drives.

In a similar way, Rudy Fenandez has the potential off the bench to cause problems for Suns defenders. If he is hitting his shot he will be a nightmare and a difference maker. If not, it could be a long night for Portland.

The other wildcard is Nicolas Boom Boom Batum. He got about 21 minutes at home against the Spurs. However, Coach McMillan has shown a real reluctance to play him on the road. Will that continue or will he get some minutes? If he gets minutes, don't be surprised to see McMillan revert to the ploy from last night of putting Batum on Nash.

While Parker did get past Batum a couple times, the length, instincts, and surprisingly good footwork of Batum did cause Parker more problems than anyone else the Blazers put on him. If Batum can slow Nash, it will give Portland a chance.

Not much of one, though. Phoenix is still a top team in the League, is playing at home, and is facing a team that has yet to show they are anywhere near the road team that they are home team. An average Phoenix effort still beats a good Portland effort.

For Portland to win they need a good shooting percentage, to have at least 3 scorers over 15 and several more close to double figures, they need to limit the Suns breaks and keep Nash from going off with his penetration.

It could happen, I just don't think the Blazers are ready yet. Look for a Phoenix win.

Ouch: Blazers get blown away in game one

I was bummed when Coach Nate McMillan switched his line-up, inserting ace sixth-man Travis Outlaw in the Small Forward slot instead of Rookie Nicolas Batum. I like what Outlaw does for Portland on the second unit, and with Lamar Odom coming off the bench for the Lakers, it did not seem it would hurt. Besides, McMillan is a phenomenal coach and his moves usually work out.

In retrospect, it did not really matter who started at Small Forward. On this night, the Lakers were stronger, faster, more aggressive, better shooters, better free throw shooters, better three point shooters, better rebounders...

I was not surprised to see the Lakers win. I was, however, surprised to see Portland forget to show up for the game.  They failed to run the offense, failed to identify who was having a reasonable night, failed to use their teammates...this game was a flat-out train wreck.

With that said, we did learn some things about the Blazers.

But there were some positive signs. First, the good:

-Brandon Roy never lost his poise, even after starting the game 0 for 9. 

- Rudy Fernandez had a spectacular game and showed he will be a force to reckon with.

- Joel Przybilla is still a good rebounder and defender

- Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum have some things they can bring to the table.

Second, the bad: Everything else that Portland normally will do well.

- Missed opportunities:

   * Portland had them, but rained brick after brick after brick when wide open. Even though his final line looked good, Steve Blake missed several open threes at points Portland needed them desperately and might have made it a game.

    * Aldridge struggled against players he normally scorches.

    * Travis Outlaw scored well but was essentially no help on the boards, did not pass well, and stopped fewer people than a yield sign. 

    * Sergio Rodriguez got only 5 minutes. Has Nate lost confidence in him already?

    * The defense. At one point they switched to a zone. It has been years since I saw such a porous zone; at one point there was 1 Blazer defending 3 Lakers. When a well-coached, veteran team with an offense like the triple post sees holes in a zone, bad things happen for the zone.

Overall, this was a disappointing night, not because they lost but because of HOW they lost. There is no shame in losing to the Lakers in L.A., but to not show up was hard to watch.

Fortunately, another game is just around the corner. There is plenty of season left and Portland will right the ship. Roy and Aldridge will shoot better, the team will pass better, and they will be just fine.

And now for the controversial portion of the show. 

Yes, Greg Oden's injury is worrisome. The Blazers have been counting on him. BUT...I am not as sure it is as bad for the team as it will be portrayed. Hopefully it will just be the mid-foot sprain as preliminary x-rays show, we will know more soon. But even if it is more serious, Portland will be fine.

Joel Przybilla is still a good fit for this team in the starting line-up. He defends, he rebounds, he sets picks and he doesn't need the ball. LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy are comfortable with him in the starting line-up. 

Portland's second unit will still be fine with Channing Frye, the Spanish Fly back court, and Travis Outlaw. 

They will have to work harder to win games but they will still win games. Lots of them. And some against good teams.

Naturally, the best-case scenario is to have Oden back and healthy soon. You never want to see an important player go down with injury. But there is no need to panic either way.

So now that game 1 is in the books, let's look forward to game 2 and let the chips fall where they may.

Preview 23-19 Houston at 25-17 Portland

At the beginning of the year some people were talking Title aspirations for Houston. Then they got struck with a multitude of injuries including to McGrady and Ming. Additionally, Steve Francis is out "indefinitely" and very few players have even made it to 30 games this year. As their record reached depths no Rocket fan anticipated there was talk in some quarters that the McGrady-Ming experiment had failed. Criticisms were leveled at Adelman for his coaching.

From where I sit, those criticisms make little sense. Adelman was a tremendous coach in Portland and his departure hurt the team as much as the departure of some of their more talented players. He did a phenomenal job in Sacramento and they made a huge mistake in letting him go. And he is doing another excellent job in Houston, guiding a variety of line-ups to where they are...in position to make a run at the playoffs in the second half of the season assuming they can get healthy.

McGrady has been playing very well off the bench the last few games as he recovers from yet another injury. Houston is hot, having won their last three. They are also catching Portland at the right time. Portland's home court advantage is all but negated by the road trip hangover. Typically teams coming back from long road trips struggle in their first game back. Additionally, Portland will be on short rest, just one day, which is unusual.

Portland will be coming back home from a long road trip, still tired, and perhaps too buoyed by their successes on the road. It will be interesting to see if they come out with fire in their eyes or if they are in coasting mode. On the one hand they have had numerous examples of great leadership. Roy in particular is known for telling his teammates what is expected of them. The team has become accustomed to winning. They make a point of defending the home court. They go out of their way to engage the fans.

On the other hand, they are coming off a loss where the last three quarters saw them badly outplayed by the Hornets, it gave them a losing record for the road trip, and after the game Barrett even talked about their level of exhaustion.

In other words, Houston is the odds on favorite to win this game, even though it is in Portland. In different circumstances I would give Portland the edge. Though Ming does a great job of shutting down the paint, that impacts Portland far less than it does most teams due to their habit of bombing away from mid and long range. The Blazers are quite content to pull up for 15 footers. In fact, this might be a good game for Roy to get off a few of those foul-line extended elbow jumpers he took so often last year but that have fallen by the wayside this year. Both Aldridge and Frye are capable of hitting the top of the key 18 foot jump shot to pull out their defenders a bit and of course Jones, Webster and Blake can all strike from anywhere on the court.

With that said, tired legs make it hard to go after the rebounds aggressively and Houston is pretty solid on the boards. Look for a poor shooting night from Portland to be compounded by rebounding woes and Houston will sneak out a road win.

Portland wins if they shoot 48% or better and manage to stay within about 4 or 5 rebounds of Houston. This is yet another gut-check game for Portland. Will they rise up and defend their home court? Or will they start sliding back towards their probably eventual end at about .500 for the season? Despite their excellent start it would not be hugely surprising to see the Blazers go something like 20-20 the rest of the way...which would still leave them 45-37, a nice 13 game jump from last year. If they are an 8 games over .500 team, which seems not too far off given their strengths and weaknesses, we can expect to start seeing them drop a few games they were winning earlier.

In the classic tradition of "Let's hedge our bets"...if the Blazers are the 50-32 or better team I did not expect but that their 25-16 record after 41 games represents then this is a game they need to win despite the obstacles. I would not be surprised to see the Blazers show their heart and win this but I expect a Rockets victory, probably in the 8 - 12 point range.

19-13 Portland at 12-18 Chicago

Will the real Chicago please stand up? Are they the team that went 49-33 with half of a Ben Wallace? Or are they the team that started this season 8-17, struggled against everyone and quit on Scott Skiles? Recently, they have looked more like the team from last year.

One suspects this recent turnaround in which the Bulls have gone from hapless to dangerous has a lot to do with the change in coaching. Ironically, Bulls (interim) coach Boylan made a comment that dove-tails nicely with my own philosophy: "Sometimes you go the way the game is going,'' Boylan said."

That quote was in reference to the extended playing time he gave to Noah who responded with a career high 17 points in just 18 minutes. I take it to mean when he sees a line-up that is working, he is going to let them run for a while. That kind of coaching can lead to win streaks.

Chicago has made some changes that are working for them. Ben Gordon is able to dominate most benches as he has shown since being moved to Chicago's bench. Hinrich and Deng are starting to look like the players they were last year and even Wallace seems to have come out of his funk. Suddenly, this is a dangerous Chicago team that thinks they can play with anyone.

And they probably can. They have a deep, talented team that can play a variety of styles. And I am having second thoughts. My first thought was this was a should-win game for Portland. However, I did not realize how much they had improved since Skiles was released. This is the team Chicago thought they had.

Unlike Minnesota, in Chicago you really do have a team that is better than its record. They certainly have the talent to beat Portland in Chicago...the question is which team will want it more. Portland is wanting to prove their long winning streak was A) no fluke and B) not strictly fueled by being at home. They are coming off a road win, they have seen what a good team looks like when that team is struggling but at home (Utah), and they know what to expect.

This game is going to come down to execution. If former Bull LaMarcus Aldridge (okay, so for about 10 minutes on draft day...but it still amuses me to say that) and Brandon Roy can continue their strong play, a couple of the second tier guys...say, Outlaw and Jones...have solid games, this is a winnable game for Portland. On the other hand, if they come out shooting 39% again, this could be a loss by 10+ points.

Here is where I say something that hurts. In the Utah game, despite the records, I believed Portland was going into a building where they were playing a better team in an away game and should probably lose. I hate Utah and hate admitting they have a better team. But they do.

In Chicago, I actually think the teams are pretty close to even, no huge advantages either way. If the game is in Portland, I think Portland wins it. But since it is in Chicago I suspect the Bulls will pull it out, probably in the 4 - 8 point range. So my official prediction is a Bulls win...but I will not be shocked if Portland pulls out the minor upset.

5-10 Portland at 10-5 Dallas

Dallas is better at shooting, rebounding, and defending than Portland. Portland is winless on the road. Dallas has only lost once at home. Portland started the season strong and is fading. Dallas started strong, had a tough middle stretch, and now seems to be getting its groove back. There is no reason to think Dallas won't blow Portland out.

When they met in Portland Roy had a career high 32 and Nowitzki scored just 11. It is too much to ask for a repeat of that. Portland's confidence is low. Only Aldridge and Outlaw are playing well offensively right now. To beat Dallas, 4 or 5 guys have to step up.

Not much to say about this one, I just don't have much hope that Portland will suddenly rise up and beat one of the better teams in their building. I actually kind of see a beat-down coming our way, I would not be shocked at all to see a 15 - 20 point or more blow-out.

For Portland to win I think 2 or three of the following have to have monster games and the other 2 have to have at least close to average games: Roy, Aldridge, Webster, Outlaw, Jack. If Webster goes for 20, Aldridge drops in 30 and the rest have at least decent days, Portland could pull the upset. But I would not count on it.

7-8 Indiana at 5-9 Portland

Portland once more manages to get a game with a team missing their best player. This time it is former Trailblazer Jermaine O Neal who will be out. The departure of Jermaine is a microcosm of everything the Blazers were doing when they were a franchise in decline. They drafted him out of high school, sat him on the bench, watched him develop into a budding superstar, then let him go. What were they thinking? He had shown flashes of his huge potential and was about to spring into the outstanding player he has become. Now he is with a franchise that seemed to be in decline or at least in a state of flux.

Yet it is a talented team even with Jermaine out of action. They are coming off a road win in Denver. They have, not including Jermaine, 5 people averaging double figures and 2 more averaging over 9 points a game. They score over a hundred a game even with 2 major contributors (Jermaine and Ike Diogu) out with injury.

Even though Portland is catching Indiana at a good time...on a lengthy road trip, without their star and a talented role player...this will be a tough game for Portland. Dunleavy is on a role and the Pacers are turning their season around. Meanwhile, after a strong start the Blazers are fading.

They are confused about where to get consistent offense. They typically do not identify their best scoring option and take advantage of it. Their leader is reeling from a series of bad games.

Portland is a strange team this year. They have the talent to compete with any team in the league. The question seems to be do they have the basketball intelligence and/or the heart to compete?

That is a strange question to ask of a team with two players (Przybilla and Blake) who took less money to play here, one player who took over leadership as a rookie (Roy), and who, as a whole, voluntarily got together before training camp to work out together and develop unity, cohesion and chemistry. But it is a valid question. Why is this team losing games it could and should win? Is it just youth and inexperience? Or does it go deeper than that?

The Pacers start Foster at center, Williams and Granger at the forward spots, and Dunleavey and Tinsley at guard. Foster drags 9 boards a game while Dunleavy and Granger each snag about 6. This could be troublesome for a Portland team whose second leading rebounder, Przybilla, is a sub and their third leading board man, Webster, only snares 5. In short, Portland will struggle all night on the boards.

If they continue their tough defense, there will be a lot of balls coming back from the rim. Unless Webster and Outlaw in particular step up to help on the boards, that alone might be the difference in the game. If both teams shoot roughly the same percentage, Portland continues to stink up the joint from the foul line, and they get crushed on the boards it will be a long night.

For Portland to win they need to identify AND USE their scorers. If whoever has the hot hand is ignored for 8 - 15 minute stretches Portland will lose and lose big. Conversely, if Aldridge and Roy have average games, Webster has a good night and they get some extra offense from one or two of their third line scorers then Portland will win. They could also win on a big night from just Aldridge, just Roy, or just Webster. There is a pretty good chance this will also be a Chalupa night. Overall, though, I think negativity is seeping into my mind because I just can't see my way clear to predict anything other than another Portland loss by 10+ points.

Preview: 4-3 Portland at 5-3 Denver

Denver is a real Jekyll and Hyde team this year. They are capable of beating the top teams...or of losing to the worst. Portland falls squarely in between those. They are not a playoff series winning team (yet), but they are no longer low echelon, either.

This game is troublesome to forecast. Portland won 4 straight against 3 tough opponents and one weaker foe...but all 4 were at home. Denver, after a slow start, has won 3 straight and is starting a long home stretch with 13 of their next 18 at home. Will they overlook Portland?

Center
Frye is consistent...4 - 6 points, then disappear. That is okay because Przybilla is playing well off the bench. Denver counters with Marcus Camby...he scores more and rebounds better than either Portland center. Defensively he likes to block shots, too.

Advantage: Denver

Power Forward
Aldridge is creating some buzz for Most Improved Player and "future all-star". Nene Hilario is out and Kevin Martin is coming back from injury. This should be another monster game for Aldridge as Denver tries to get in with guys who hustle and play hard but are nowhere near as talented.

Advantage: Portland

Small Forward
Webster is in a shooting slump, and those were home games. On the other side of the coin Carmelo Anthony is also shooting poorly...but he is putting up a lot more shots and hitting enough to score almost 26 a game. He also passes better than Webster.

Advantage: Denver

Shooting Guard
Roy is a stud and the Blazers are doing a better job of getting him more involved early. If that continues he will continue to put up good numbers and the win total will keep increasing. Opposing him is head case J.R. Smith. Smith will pull off eye-popping, athletic moves and score a little bit but he simply isn't in Roy's class. Not many players are at this position.

Advantage: Portland

Point Guard
I am becoming a believer in Blake. Sure, he does not score a lot (1 point against the Pistons) but he consistently gets 8 - 9 assists and seldom turns the ball over (1 against the Pistons) and does not need a lot of shots. On the other side you have shoot first, second and third Iverson...who suddenly has become a shoot first and third, but pass second point guard, averaging a very respectable 8.6 assists and shooting better than he has in many, many years. The career 42% shooter who shot too much and scored too few points for the number of shots he took is suddenly shooting a respectable 46% and that, in my eyes, means this is pretty much the best year of his career sans the one where he pretty much carried the Sixers to the Finals with essentially no help. Everything Blake does, Iverson is doing better.

Advantage: Denver

Bench
Portland has had a really good effort from the bench since Jack and Przybilla moved there. It only gets better when Outlaw plays well. Denver has time-absorbers who will hustle and try but simply are not as good as Portland's bench.

What needs to happen
Denver loves to run and this could be an opportunity for Portland to get out and get some easy buckets for Aldridge, Jack and Roy to counteract the firepower of Anthony and Iverson. However, it will be the 2nd night of a back to back with a night of travel between and Roy's heel is a consideration. Denver has been playing with a chip on their shoulder and will want to establish their home court.

For Portland to win they need Webster to come out of his slump, Aldridge to have a monster game, Jack to continue his outstanding run of bench play, and Anthony and Iverson to have poor shooting games. If that happens, they will win. Otherwise, this could be a blow-out the other way. Portland has the talent to win any game on their schedule, the question is whether they have figured that out yet. I would not be surprised to see a Portland win...but I don't expect it.

Denver by 8+ points

Preview; 4-1 Dallas at 2-3 Portland

Dallas is coming off an emotional road win over the team that upset them in last years playoffs. Portland is coming off a more difficult than expected win over Memphis at home. This has all the makings of an upset opportunity for Portland. Unfortunately, it is not going to happen.

Center
For whatever reason the Blazers insist on running their first couple of plays for Channing Frye. These are also (thankfully) usually the last two plays they run for him. Fortunately, they only have to contend with DeSagana Diop, a guy who will play defense and rebound but pretty much only scores on broken plays and offensive rebounds.

Edge: Even

Power Forward
Dirk Nowitski was the MVP last year. His numbers are down a bit this year and he has struggled against Portland in the last few meetings. On the other side of the ball, this is one of Portland's strongest positions. Aldridge is coming off a huge game and this will be a good opportunity for him to step up and show he is a prime time player. On the down side, at times he is sometimes foul prone so that might be a concern. He is good enough to play it even on a good night or even outscore his opponent if Portland feeds him the ball, runs plays for him, and gets out in transition. Still, when you are up against the reigning MVP...it is a tough night.

Edge: Dallas

Small Forward
I am not convinced Portland knows how good Webster can be. They hide him for far too much of the game. If they ran a few plays for him and looked for him a bit more often he could be a 20 - 25 point scorer. Instead he is locked in about 16 - 18 points almost every night. Across the way we find Josh Howard, the Maverick's leading scorer this year at 24 per game.

Edge: Dallas

Shooting Guard
As always, Roy is the Blazers best player. Stackhouse can score with anybody but Roy is a better all-around player. This will be a fun battle to watch.

Edge: Portland

Point Guard
Devin Harris reportedly will not be there so Jason Terry returns to the starting line-up more than likely. Terry, like Jack, has exploded in a reserve role. But whether starting or coming off the bench, he is lethal. Blake is a solid point guard who gets the Blazers into their offense well and does a good job of distributing the ball but he is not in Terry's class.

Edge: Dallas

Bench
Jarrett Jack has been tearing it up since being moved to the bench. He relishes that role. Unfortunately, the rest of the bench has been struggling. James Jones is out with knee issues (where have I heard that before?) and Outlaw is struggling to find his shot. The Mavericks are missing Eddie Jones and with Terry in the starting line-up they lose a lot of punch. But they do have solid players in Devean George and Brandon Bass and the rest of their team fills their roles well.

Edge: even

This is a good opportunity for the Blazers to pull off the upset. But to do so, they have to play their zone better than they did against the Grizzlies. Dallas simply has too many good shooters to get away with leaving them open. Defensively, if the continue playing their swiss-cheese defense they could see Dallas eclipse the 110 mark easily.

On the other side of the ball, Golden State showed the way. Dallas is susceptible to penetration. It gets them scrambling and they give up a lot of second chance opportunities when someone penetrates. If Portland's guards, Jack, Blake, and Roy, penetrate and their bigs crash the boards they can wreak havoc and put a lot of points on the board. This might be a game where Sergio Rodriguez can do major damage with his ability to get inside almost at will. Webster needs to hit his open shots, which he should get plenty of, and Aldridge and Przybilla need to work the boards.

If those things happen and Outlaw comes out of his funk you will see an upset win by Portland. Otherwise, look for Dallas to win by double digits.