7-8 Indiana at 5-9 Portland

Portland once more manages to get a game with a team missing their best player. This time it is former Trailblazer Jermaine O Neal who will be out. The departure of Jermaine is a microcosm of everything the Blazers were doing when they were a franchise in decline. They drafted him out of high school, sat him on the bench, watched him develop into a budding superstar, then let him go. What were they thinking? He had shown flashes of his huge potential and was about to spring into the outstanding player he has become. Now he is with a franchise that seemed to be in decline or at least in a state of flux.

Yet it is a talented team even with Jermaine out of action. They are coming off a road win in Denver. They have, not including Jermaine, 5 people averaging double figures and 2 more averaging over 9 points a game. They score over a hundred a game even with 2 major contributors (Jermaine and Ike Diogu) out with injury.

Even though Portland is catching Indiana at a good time...on a lengthy road trip, without their star and a talented role player...this will be a tough game for Portland. Dunleavy is on a role and the Pacers are turning their season around. Meanwhile, after a strong start the Blazers are fading.

They are confused about where to get consistent offense. They typically do not identify their best scoring option and take advantage of it. Their leader is reeling from a series of bad games.

Portland is a strange team this year. They have the talent to compete with any team in the league. The question seems to be do they have the basketball intelligence and/or the heart to compete?

That is a strange question to ask of a team with two players (Przybilla and Blake) who took less money to play here, one player who took over leadership as a rookie (Roy), and who, as a whole, voluntarily got together before training camp to work out together and develop unity, cohesion and chemistry. But it is a valid question. Why is this team losing games it could and should win? Is it just youth and inexperience? Or does it go deeper than that?

The Pacers start Foster at center, Williams and Granger at the forward spots, and Dunleavey and Tinsley at guard. Foster drags 9 boards a game while Dunleavy and Granger each snag about 6. This could be troublesome for a Portland team whose second leading rebounder, Przybilla, is a sub and their third leading board man, Webster, only snares 5. In short, Portland will struggle all night on the boards.

If they continue their tough defense, there will be a lot of balls coming back from the rim. Unless Webster and Outlaw in particular step up to help on the boards, that alone might be the difference in the game. If both teams shoot roughly the same percentage, Portland continues to stink up the joint from the foul line, and they get crushed on the boards it will be a long night.

For Portland to win they need to identify AND USE their scorers. If whoever has the hot hand is ignored for 8 - 15 minute stretches Portland will lose and lose big. Conversely, if Aldridge and Roy have average games, Webster has a good night and they get some extra offense from one or two of their third line scorers then Portland will win. They could also win on a big night from just Aldridge, just Roy, or just Webster. There is a pretty good chance this will also be a Chalupa night. Overall, though, I think negativity is seeping into my mind because I just can't see my way clear to predict anything other than another Portland loss by 10+ points.

Orlando 85, Portland 74

It took Portland 4 minutes to get LaMarcus Aldridge a shot. He made it. He took 4 shots in the first period. Travis Outlaw was out of his mind, scoring 8. Portland scored 27. They had a ten point lead. They were scoring, defending, rebounding...they looked good.

Then they fell apart. After a 27 point quarter, they only totaled 47 points in the next 3 quarters. How did that happen? Well, for one thing, Roy is still struggling with his shot. He missed from everywhere...3s, drives, mid-range jumpers. Also, Portland forgot about this one guy they have...LaMarcus something or other. Case in point.

Third period:
First possession: Aldridge turn around jump shot. Made.
Second possession: Aldridge turn around fade way: Made.
Third Possession: Aldridge 3 second violation.
Fourth Possession: Aldridge dunk. Time: 10:30.

Next Aldridge shot: the 3:16 mark (he made it). He took and made 4 shots in the quarter. When you score but 16 points in the quarter, how does someone who is 4 for 4 in the quarter and 6 for 8 on the night just 4 shots in the quarter? Webster scored 6, Outlaw 2. It was an ugly quarter. Get Aldridge more shots!

Is it a shock Portland, without Aldridge or Webster in the game for much of the quarter, struggled to score in the 4th?

Defensively, Portland did a great job. Howard struggled all night. The Magic shot just 41% for the game. Offensively, they made a huge error. I am a huge Roy fan, but this was not a strong night for him. On a night when Aldridge shot 8-15, Webster 6-12 and Outlaw 5-13, Roy's 4 -18 is a bad sign. The guy having the worst shooting night should not be taking the most shots. Portland needs to identify their hot shooters and get them the ball more often.

They also need to improve on their abominable free throw shooting. How on earth does an NBA team shoot worse than 54% from the line?

When the season started I had high hopes for this team. They were letting Aldridge get enough touches, Roy was penetrating and finding the open man, Webster was hitting shots, Przybilla was playing defense and rebounding. I genuinely believed they were playoff bound. They should win 42 - 45 games, which I know seems like a lot...but I believe they are that talented. Aldridge could easily be a 24 - 25 point a night guy, Webster 15 - 18 if used better (i.e., don't hide him motionless in the corner and run the play on the far side of the court. Let him drive a bit, get some mid-range jumpers, etc.), and Roy better than 20 a game. There is enough fill in talent with Outlaw, Jack, Blake, and Frye to give them a potent offense.

Defensively they have great potential in Przybilla, Aldridge, Webster and Outlaw. Outlaw in particular can be an All-NBA defender. His length, energy and intensity cause major problems for his opponent. And Portland is holding their opponents to low shooting percentages. But then they give it back on the boards.

They are close to being a very, very good team. If Oden is as advertised then next year might be the Cinderella year. But this year, ever since the Philadelphia game, is looking long.

In that game Portland had a 24 point road lead. They were on the verge of sweeping their road trip. Everything was in place. They were destroying a bad Philadelphia team. They had Washington without Agent Zero and the Bobcats without Morrison in front of them. They would come home riding a 4 game road win streak (what road monkey?) and, their confidence high, beat the injured, tired Nets. They blew that lead, gave up against Washington, and lost a winnable game to make that road monkey into a monster. Suddenly the home court is not as kind. They lost to a New Jersey team they should have beat in a game they had won. They can't score against Orlando. The season is heading for the lottery...but it didn't have to. It was on the edge of surprising goodness.

I still like to watch them. I still like the make-up of the team. They just need to find that missing, undefinable "something" and get themselves righted. Hopefully it happens soon.

Preview: Orlando at Portland

Orlando's star is Dwight Howard, a center who scores frequently and rebounds like mad. Supporting him on the boards are Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkglu, giving the Magic a monstrous front line (Lewis and Turkoglu are both 6'10"). Portland will be giving up size up front and facing a team that is better at scoring and rebounding across the board.


Only Roy stacks up to have any appreciable advantage over his opposite number as Keith Bogans is the weak link in the Orlando starting line-up.

Meanwhile, Orlando has been tearing it up on the road, coming in with a 6-1 road record. Portland, meanwhile, lost their first home game to a bad New Jersey team with an injured but playing Vince Carter and then struggled mightily against a bad Sacramento team that was fighting internally. There is not a lot of reason to believe these trends will change.

Orlando is a much better team. Portland can win if they develop some offense that takes advantage of their strengths and keeps going to people who are scoring instead of continuing to use them.

They also need better shooting from Webster. He has been struggling for a while lately. This is largely because Portland tends to hide him in the corner, then go to the other side of the court to run their offense. They need to get him more involved and doing more than hanging out in the corner shooting 3s or being given the ball with the clock winding down to force up awkward, off-balance shots with little chance of going in. Try running him off some screens, get him some mid-range jumpers, and get him to drive a bit more.

Let Aldridge go to work down low. Artest, Duncan, and others have failed to slow him down. The best defense anyone has offered for Aldridge is for Portland to keep the ball away from him and that has worked well.

Roy also looks like he is hurting. It will be deadly for Portland's season if he goes down.

Last but not least...enough of the zone already. Portland is struggling to rebound and gives up way too much penetration. They have capable defenders. Outlaw, when he is on the ball, is an irritating defender who causes problems with his energy, intensity, and length. Aldridge is also developing nicely. Against the Kings he often defended smaller, quicker players and blocked or altered their shots. He has issues against stronger, bigger players, but that is where Przybilla is supremely useful. Webster also has shown excellent flashes, using his quickness and tenacity to cause problems for his opponents. He did a very nice job on Martin when they were matched up.

The zone is useful and effective in segments but when they run it exclusively, Portland tends to get lost. Outlaw and Aldridge in particular lose their man or zone far too often and they leave their side of the floor open for quick rotations and wide open shots. Also, the zone is easily penetrated for lay-ups or kick-outs to wide-open shooters. Portland is young and learning...we will see how it works out.

Overall, barring a stat-packing explosion from an unexpected source or two, Portland should lose, probably by double digits. If they get that stand-out performance from any 2 or 3 of the Roy/Jack/Aldridge/Webster group, they should win.

Portland 87, Sacramento 84

LaMarcus Aldridge cored the first 7 Portland points and 9 of their first 11. He had 13 first quarter points (the Blazers scored but 22). He was working it hard. They found something using Roy and Aldridge early that Jack later exploited for his own assist.

And they stopped going to it.

He had 2 shots in the second quarter. This would be fine if they found something else that was working for them. Maybe Webster coming off screens, Roy driving and kicking, or Frye having another offensive explosion. They didn't. They scored all of 18 points in the second quarter. And it was not great Sacramento defense.

Roy had open shots. Webster had open shots. Jack had open shots. Rodriguez, Blake, Outlaw...open shots were easy to come by. Made shots were rare. Fortunately, only Garcia was scoring for Sacramento. Even more importantly, inside the last minute in an 8 second span Outlaw blocked 2 lay-up attempts in spectacular fashion. The Rose Garden was rocking after that and it was just a 1 point deficit, 43-42 at the break.

Aldridge added 8 points in the third including a crowd-pleasing, roof-raising 1 hander where Roy drove and he followed from a bizarre angle with a one-handed follow dunk. It was spectacular. Almost as spectacular was Przybilla turning back a dunk attempt. The third quarter was back and forth as Artest carried the Kings with his 9 points to one-up Aldridge and Sacramento closed the quarter with a 65-62 lead.

The first part of the quarter was about even until Sacramento built a 74-70 lead. Portland scored only 1 point over the next three minutes...but Sacramento scored even fewer. Blake hit back to back threes, Roy scored on a lay-up, Jack added a pair of free throws and suddenly, with 3:41 left Portland had exploded to a 7 point lead, 81-74 with an 11-0 run. Sacramento looked like a team in disarray as Udrih was yelling at players he thought were going the wrong way, Miller and Moore were whining and there was no cohesion. Portland was on the verge of blowing them out.

Somehow, Sacramento clawed their way to an 10-2 run right after that to retake the lead by 1. This is where Portland's youth would battle with the leadership that Roy and Aldridge are reputedly showing. On the road Portland would melt down and give away a game they should have won.

Roy responded with a drive to give Portland the lead. Then he drew the offensive foul on Garcia. With 6 seconds left Portland had the ball and the lead. They inbounded to Jack. Miller hammered him, Artest came over the back, and three Kings were all over him. Astoundingly, the officials called a jump ball!

The Garden was aghast. Boos rained from the rafters. Instead of their best free throw shooter at the line, Jack, with a chance to ice the game, the monstrous Brad Miller would be jumping against the minuscule Jack for possession of the ball for the last shot.

And somehow, some way, Jack won the tip. Outlaw stepped to the line with 4-tenths of a second left. Portland was abysmal at the line for the night, 14-25 at this point. Outlaw is not the man you want at the line in this situation...or is he? He came through, draining them both, and the desperation near half court heave by Artest at the buzzer did not go in. Portland escaped with a 3 point win on a night they should have won by double digits.

Aldridge had a HUGE night with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He shot an unbelievable 12-15 from the field...and 4-8 from the line. Roy also took 15 shots, many of them open, and made but 6. But he added 8 assists and 3 steals. Webster had a rough night from the field but was awesome on the boards, tallying 9, and Outlaw and Przybilla showed their defensive prowess with 3 and 2 blocks respectively.

Across the way, the Kings only mustered 14 shots for their scoring machine Martin who finished with just 21, 6 below his season average. Artest played well with 17 points, 11 boards and 5 assists, and Francisco Garcia showed his talent with another 17 points on 6-11 shooting.

It was not a particularly entertaining game for the most part. It was a low-scoring affair that threatened to turn ugly. Miller dished out 2 elbow to the head and got 2 back, 1 from Aldridge and 1 from Przybilla. There was a lot of chirping going on, most of it the Kings internally. Moore, Udrih and Miller all spent more time yelling at each other than playing the game. I bet the brothers Maloof are glad they unloaded Adelman, the coach who maximized the talent, created a cohesive, unified team that won games it should and some it shouldn't. The Kings are in need of a lot of help. Getting back a healthy Bibby would help as he, Artest, Garcia and Martin can score some points, but until this team gets on the same page, it is going to be a long season in Sacramento.

Nets 106, Blazers 101

I mentioned in my preview the Blazers have problems with penetrating guards. Truer words have seldom been spoken. All night Kidd created offense for the Nets with drives and kicks, Jefferson and Wright got into the lane seemingly at will, and even when the initial shot was missed the Nets got tip-ins or offensive rebounds for extra possessions.

Meanwhile, Aldridge was having a rough night and the Blazers were struggling to create offense. When Frye scored at the 5:18 mark of the quarter Portland trailed 13-8. That is how hard it was for Portland to score early on. After 8 minutes they were scoring just 1 point per minute (their next score was at the 4:41 mark)

Fortunately, Roy came to the rescue and dropped in 13 points over the course of that 4:41 and finished the quarter with 15 . Impossibly, after scoring 8 points in almost 8 minutes, Portland tallied a whopping 18 in the next 4. Portland led after 1 quarter 26-19 and the Rose Garden was rocking.

The second quarter was more of a struggle. When Roy went to the bench the Blazers struggled to score. They got a few points from Jack, Przybilla, and Aldridge finally broke through to score his first points of the game at the 3:14 mark. Meanwhile, New Jersey was getting balanced contributions from their entire line-up. Wright, Jefferson, Boone, Nachbar, Kidd, Williams and Collins all scored at least 2 points as Kidd continued to cause problems with his penetration. By the half it was only 48-45.

Portland got a huge quarter from Frye as he tallied 8, Webster added 7, and Aldridge shook off his 4 point first half to add 6 more. Portland took it to New Jersey early, building an 11 point lead at 73-62 before letting New Jersey go on a bit of a run to close within 5 as Nachbar tallied his 10th point with a dunk at the tail end of the third.

And in the 4th Nachbar ran wild, looking unstoppable as he scored another 13. Jefferson did not stop scoring all night and New jersey put together a 31 point quarter. 8 of those came after an Aldridge dunk at 2:04 gave Portland a 101-98 lead. Then Portland played prevent offense. They started running down the clock. This led to rushed, bad shots, offensive fouls, and no points in the last 2 minutes. Meanwhile, Nachbar drained a 3, Kidd was fouled on a fastbreak, made the bucket and 2 free throws, then in crunch time the Blazers elected to play defense instead of foul. With 9 seconds left Nachbar shot a corner three and missed.

And Kidd grabbed the offensive board, essentially sealing the game. He made both free throws and New Jersey had scored the final 8 points to steal a 104-101 win.

It sounds odd in a game where Portland scored 101 points and shot 54% to say they struggled on offense, but that is exactly what happened. When they found something they did not work they did not stay with it. Aldridge was content to get pushed beyond his comfort zone with his back to the basket and not once in the first half did Portland get him his beloved top of the key elbow jumper. Roy had 21 first half points and ended with 25. Webster was "on" all night and got no shots for long stretches.

It was a game Portland should have won and didn't. They are a young team and it has shown ever since the Denver game. Hopefully they are able to turn it around soon. Meanwhile, it was an entertaining game and showed the potential Portland has.

Preview: Portland vs. New Jersey

4-7. Not the record expected at this point in the season. A team full of promise and hope. A team with 3 big stars and a roster of talented subs. 1 star injured.

This is the story for Portland and New Jersey both. They have identical records and similar stories. After the draft is was expected Portland would be driven by big-name stars Greg Oden, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge while New Jersey would ride the talents of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson. Now, a month in we know Oden is starting play next year and Carter is out for a few more games probably. Both teams could reasonably expect to come in with 7-4 records yet both are 4-7. Both teams have had problems scoring. The question is...are they headed the same direction?

New Jersey has started 8 different people. The only locks seem to be Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. at least until Carter returns. Krstic has started the next most, 8 times, but he is averaging but 16 minutes. The Nets are a team in turmoil. They scored all of 69 against the Boston juggernaut. The Heat held them to the low 90s. If they score 100 they get nose bleeds from the altitude.

How is this possible on a team where Kidd is averaging 10 assists a game? Easy...they shoot 43%. Well, Portland has given up 70% + shooting for a quarter (the 4th against Charlotte) and a half (the 2nd against the 76ers). So this might be a chance for New Jersey to get healthy.

Also, Kidd is exactly the type of point guard that has caused the Blazers fits in the last few games. He can penetrate at will which gets their defense scrambling, leads to open shots and then offensive rebounds. The Blazers have to adjust their defense to stop that penetration and must figure out a way to control the defensive boards.

At the offensive end they need to work more cohesively. Webster needs to be more aggressive at driving more and standing around in the corner waiting to launch 3s less. I am still a fan, I just hope he gets over his struggles soon. They need to be more aggressive in looking for Aldridge, also, and Roy needs to get involved in the offense earlier.

Portland should win the game...but it is not a huge upset if they lose and if their psyche is shot, they could even get blown out. But I predict a win, say in the 6 - 8 point range inside the last couple minutes.

Charlotte 101, Portland 92

The Blazers are a streaky team this year.
They lost their first 3 games, all on the road.
They won their next 4 games, all at home.
They lost their next 4 games, all on the road.

I figured they were not ready to beat Denver. I wrongly thought they were ready to defeat Philadelphia. With the confidence of their home wins against Dallas, Detroit and Charlotte I thought they would handily beat Philadelphia which would lead to further wins against Washington and Charlotte. All three of those were eminently winnable games against teams Portland was better than. At half-time, even after the third quarter against Philadelphia, I looked like a genius.

Then things fell apart. They gave up a blistering shooting percentage, gave back 21 points in the 4th quarter alone and lost a game they should have won by double digits. I instantly revised my prediction to having them lose every game on the road trip.

They did not disappoint. They went out and laid down to a bad Wizards team that was missing its best player, then went into Charlotte to face a team whose best player is out for the year.

And promptly had a horrendous game. They shot 42%. They gave up 19 turnovers. They got Aldridge only 6 shots...and he played but 20 minutes.

That is one move NBA coaches make that I often wonder about. Sure, Aldridge was in foul trouble...but would you not rather have him for 25 or 30 minutes and have him foul out than have him for 20 minutes and have a foul left? Let him play a bit more. Let him get that foul...or maybe learn how to play with foul trouble and still be effective. The Blazers need more than 6 shots from LA if they are going to win games.

The Blazers have talent, no doubt, but there is even less doubt that offensively they have Roy and Aldridge on one level, then everybody else. The difference is that big. And when Roy struggles and Aldridge is non-existent they just are not going to win.

I was able to listen to most of the first half. The Blazers were struggling mightily. They were careless with the ball, giving up turnover after turnover after turnover, they were not rebounding defensively...for the fame they gave up a whopping 13 rebounds...and they were not identifying their scorers and getting the ball to them. They followed up a respectable 23 point quarter with a woeful 13 point quarter...and 3 of those were a desperation half-court heave with time expiring.

Somehow Portland has to find a way to create scoring opportunities. 92 points is not going to win many games, particularly when you are giving up 47% shooting to teams like the Bobcats and putting them at the line almost 30 times. That is a path to numerous blow-outs.

This game wasn't. Portland even managed to take a lead early in the 4th quarter before allowing their defense to implode once more. 38 point quarters happen to the Suns, not the Bobcats.

Reports have surfaced of McMillan really unloading on the players behind closed doors. It is understandable why he would. This road trip is not the type of performance you would expect from a team that came together before training camp to work out together and build chemistry. It is not the type of performance you would expect from a team with players like Brandon Roy who is trying to build himself as a leader, with players like Blake and Przybilla who took less money to come here because they liked the direction it is heading, with players like Aldridge who typically play with a smile on their face because they are enjoying the game.

Portland laid down to Denver and Washington, did not even try to compete with either. They gave away a 17 point 4th quarter lead and lost to probably the worst team in the league. Then they gave up a huge 4th quarter to an improving but not yet good Charlotte team. It was a terrible, terrible set-back in their season that, at the end of the year, we will look back on as the time they lost their playoff spot. Sad.

I still like this team, I still think it has talent and possibilities, and there is still time for them to turn it around, win 42+ games and sneak into the playoffs. But I no longer am positive they will. Now it is more like a long-shot hope.

After the Philadelphia loss, I predicted they would lose every game on the road trip. I just hoped I was wrong. On the bright side, they are coming home, so they should win a couple now.