4-13 Miami at 6-12 Portland

When the schedule was released, this game must have had the suits at TNT salivating. A declining but still popular Shaquille O' Neal against #1 pick and young stud Greg Oden up front while 2005 Finals MVP Dwayne Wade runs into 2006 Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy. Marquee match-ups everywhere, with possible Most Improved Player of the Year LaMarcus Aldridge added into the mix.

Lo and behold we get here and Portland has no Oden, Wade was injured early and (for him) pedestrian since coming back...though any team that would not LOVE to have him in their back court is insane...but his "mere" 20 points a game has not helped Miami all that much, O'Neal is no longer a 25 and 10 guy, now just 15 and 7.5, and the marquee value has kind of disappeared as Miami is on a 3 game losing streak and Portland just finished a 4 game losing streak with their last-second win in Memphis. But it is still on TNT. One suspects the geniuses that scheduled this game for there are no longer quite as happy.

Early in the season I would have projected Portland to win in a walk. They are the more talented team, they are hungrier, they have more to prove. Przybilla and Frye have the defensive chops to give O'Neal problems, Miami has nobody to stop Aldridge or Roy, and only at point guard would Miami have a marked advantage.

But then Portland went into the tank. Their road woes affected their home game and they dropped 3 very winnable home games I thought they would have won. They look like what most people seem to think they are...one of the worst teams in the league.

But Miami is still worse, at least right now. Maybe after Wade hits his stride that won't be true, but right now...they are worse. Portland should win this game, and handily. They play better at home, they have everything they need to run Miami off the court. I should make the call for a blow-out.

I just don't know if that road win over Memphis is enough to get them where they need to be.

Outlaw has been studly lately, Aldridge continues to be the man night after night, and Jack has settled comfortably into his 6th man role.

But Webster continues to struggle, Roy has had but one good game in his last several, and the Blazers are just not consistent. You don't know from night to night if you will get 20 and 10 from Outlaw...or a 2 - 11 shooting 5 point stinker. Webster might give you 15...or 2. Roy might be 9-15 for 25 points and a few boards, or he might go 4-18. There is no consistency so it makes it hard to predict what should happen.

Somehow, the doubt comes up in the back of the mind that they will let Wade, O'Neal, or Davis go off for a monster game and find a way to lose to a pretty bad Miami team that is struggling mightily.

But I am going with the homer card. Let's say what should happen will, Portland win.

Portland 106, Memphis 105

I thought going in the game would be a blow-out one way or the other. I figured one team would build a lead early. It it was Memphis, the delicate Portland psyches would implode and they would get run off the court. Conversely, if they came out angry and put up a lot of points, I thought they would take the lesson of the Philadelphia game and build the lead, finishing the game.

I was wrong.

This was the Portland team I thought we had at the beginning of the year.

They got contributions from a couple role players and their stars produced. Roy finished the first quarter with 5 points and 3 assists, Aldridge added 10 points and had 2 steals inside the last 38 seconds leading to 5 of the 8 points Portland scored in the last 50 seconds to take a 31-24 lead into the second quarter. But the key is they battled back and forth all quarter, coming back after trailing by 7 early at 12-5. That was the bad moment, when they could have laid down and gotten crushed. But Blake and Webster stepped up, each dropping in treys, and Portland was right back in the game.

James Jones, back from injury, had a hot second quarter with 8 points. Good thing he was scoring because hardly anybody else was for Portland. After a nice 31 point first quarter they could only put in 19 in the second. Once more the second unit struggled mightily. Meanwhile, the defense disappeared for Portland as they gave up a 33 point quarter. That is a huge swing and they found themselves down 7 at the half in a game they really need to have.

They started off hot in the third quarter, scoring the first 9 points to take the lead. They traded baskets for a bit, then Memphis extended to a nine point lead with less than 2 minutes in the quarter and they traded baskets to make it 80-71 with 51 seconds left in the third quarter. Then Portland rose up. Aldridge scored his 20th point, they produced a turnover, Jack made a layup, then with 2 seconds left Jones stole the ball and Outlaw made a ridiculous half court trey to make it a 2 point game going into the 4th.

But neither team wanted to lose, so the 4th would be exciting. Memphis built the lead back to 7. Portland came back to take the lead. They traded buckets and 1 or 2 point leads until Memphis scored 4 straight to take a 103-99 lead with 1:10 remaining.

Travis Outlaw then took over. Despite having his last shot attempt blocked, he made a jumper, rebounded a Stoudemire miss, drained a three with 15 seconds left to give Portland a 1 point lead. Then they got what they wanted, a last-second shot by Navarro. They did everything right, keeping the ball away from Gay, Miller, or Gausol. When you take away a team's top 3 choices, you should feel pretty good about your chances...

Of course, all year rebounding has been a bugaboo for Portland. And it struck again. Gay got the offensive board and scored with 2 seconds left.

Portland had some pretty good players on the floor for the last shot. Two mighty fine options would be Brandon Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge to take the last shot. Both had big nights. Both have shown they can make that shot. But Portland could not get the ball inbounds. We were watching, yelling "Get it inbounds!"

And they did. To Travis Outlaw.

Oops.

Not our first choice. Or second choice. Or, for that matter, third or fourth choice. He was probably the fifth choice of the guys we had on the floor. And he dribbled for an interminably long time. I thought the shot clock had to have run out. He elevated, he shot from a bad angle off right...and made the shot.

They reviewed it about 100 times the rest of the night because it was that close to being too late. In the end the bucket stood and Portland had a win.

I thought for Portland to win they had to have production from their stars and 2 or three role players step up. Well, Aldridge went for 23, Roy had his best game in a while with 26 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists, and Outlaw was probably the star of the game with 21 points and 7 boards. He was studly when Portland needed him most. James Jones also was key as he shot the lights out, 6 of 7...including 4-4 from downtown. His 16 points were a huge boost to the Blazers.

They never really slowed Gay or Miller, each of whom dropped 30 on them, and Gausol was hardly held in check as his 15 boards attest. But they got stops when they had to, made key shots, and came away with a badly needed victory. It will be interesting to see if this once more turns their season around. They still have time to return to the promise once shown if they can develop some consistency. Jones will help a lot if he can keep providing that sort of spark to the team. He is an exciting player. And Outlaw has really come on in the last few games. He has shown flashes before, it will be interesting to see if it lasts this time.

5-12 Portland at 6-10 Memphis

Portland is coming off a 21 point loss. Memphis is coming off a 29 point win. Portland is 0-11 on the road, riding a 4 game losing streak (and 9 of their last 10) while Memphis is up 3 of their last 4. Everything is in place for a Memphis blow-out win.

They have players who give Portland fits...Rudy Gay went off in the first meeting, Pau Gasol turned his season around...it could be a long night.

Adding to Portland's misery is the way they cannot seem to have anyone other than Aldridge have back to back good games. If things go according to form, Outlaw and Webster will disappear, Aldridge will bounce back from a rare bad game, and Portland will lose handily.

However...Portland should come into this game angry. This is gut check time. Unlike Ring Night when Portland gave the Spurs a run for their money...and could have won...they were never in the game against San Antonio. The Blazers have had a long run of playing other teams when their best player is out (Agent Zero, Adam Morrison, etc.) or having a horrible game (Iverson, Nowitzki twice, etc.) and still pulled off a horrific defeat. Duncan was never a factor and Portland still got blown off the court.

Portland needs to come out angry, put the hammer down, and play their hearts out. They need to play tough, aggressive defense, get the ball inside to their scorers, and make the shots. If they get a lead, they need to show a killer instinct and expand the lead instead of allowing Memphis back into the game.

If the Blazers come out with fire in their bellies and get the Grizzlies to miss a few shots early, this will be the game where they get the road monkey off their back. If not, they will get blown out yet again.

This is a tricky game. Everything I think about basketball points to a Blazer win. I stubbornly hold out the argument they are a better team than Memphis despite a plummeting record. They were just embarrassed and should come out strong. Memphis should come in overconfident after a team record tying blow-out win. You would expect Portland to rise up and make a statement.

However, the one thing we know about losing streaks is they tend to become self-perpetuating. A team might even build a lead...but when the opponent makes the inevitable mini-run, then the team in a long-term struggle thinks, "Here we go again." That key confidence component disappears. They rush their shot or take a bad shot trying to turn things around. Then they make a turnover. A mini-run turns into a monster run. Now the confidence is destroyed. Good shots rim out. Bad shots whiff everything. Defense suffers.

And the only thing that stops it is someone stepping up, overcoming the pressure and having a positive game. This is a key stretch for the Portland franchise. They have a long home stand coming up. They need to rebuild their confidence and find a way to get a few wins. That includes breaking through on the road. We will see whether they can or not. More and more it looks like my pre-season prediction of playoffs was way off base and a better prediction would be "lots of ping-pong balls in the lottery". I hope I am wrong.

San Antonio 100, Portland 79

How would Portland respond to a game when not even once in 4 quarters could they eclipse the 25 point mark?

By throwing up the worst game of the season.

Roy scored 4. Aldridge doubled him up...but shot just 2 of 8. Blake added 1 point...and still outscored Przybilla. In fact, if not for Webster, no starter would have hit double digits. Martell was dialed in, shooting 7-11 and scoring 17, more than the other 4 starters combined.

Outlaw went for 17 points and 11 boards on 8-16, a very respectable game. In other words, the small forward combo had 30 points. But otherwise, it was an ugly, ugly performance. Przybilla tallied just 10 minutes for whatever reason...one presumes because Portland had so much trouble scoring. 79 points for the game with San Antonio's best player out? Inexcusable.

It was not as if San Antonio was lighting the world on fire. They lost All-World Tim "Whinemaster" Duncan in the second period...and still steamrolled the hapless Blazers. That happens when good teams shoot 48% and bad teams shoot 40%.

Portland needs to find an offense. The interminable pick and rolls only work when you get the ball to good shooters in good locations. When you don't, you end up with a stagnant offense that puts up 80 points a night and loses by large margins. And you spoil nice efforts by Webster and Outlaw.

If Portland can get these performances on a regular basis from Outlaw and Webster, all they would need to salvage a reasonable season would be Aldridge and Roy to have average nights regularly. I don't expect it to happen.

Dallas 91, Portland 80

Portland has actually been going to Aldridge early lately. And he has produced. He made Portland's first couple buckets, then disappeared for long stretches without even getting shots. Still, he finished 4 -5 in the quarter for 8 points.

Portland, as has become their way, struggled to score far more in the second quarter than the first. When you only score 19 in the first, that is a problem. And here is a bigger problem. On a night they are struggling to score at every position but one, the first shot their best scorer got came with 3:32 left in the quarter. And he made it. He would get but two more shots in the quarter, both inside the last 29 seconds (he made one). Portland scored but 17 points.

This is a running theme this year. Portland struggles to get enough shots for their best scorers/shooters. Aldridge is shooting .527% from the field...he should be getting 20 - 25 shots a night or more. High percentage, efficient scoring...they need more of that. Portland should look to Aldridge for maybe 25 points a night on this particular version of the team. Frankly, nobody else...including, surprisingly, Brandon Roy...is capable of consistent, efficient scoring on this team.

Oh, sure, there are guys capable of the occasional explosive night...Outlaw had 26 one night, I would be surprised if at some point in the season Webster did not eclipse the 25 point mark, Roy is a better player than he has shown so far, Jack has bettered the 20 point mark a few times...but at this point, nobody is playing very consistently. In a quarter where you score 17 points...and a half where you score 36...there is no excuse for getting Aldridge just 8 shots. He scored a third of their points in the first half...they need to ride that horse. They were fortunate to only be down 8.

On the bright side, Portland identified this...and got Aldridge TWO official shots in the third period. He did get to the line twice..and turned the ball over...so four shots for the period. Not enough. On the bright side, Portland "exploded" for a 23 point quarter. Not as many as the 32 Dallas put up...but certainly better than 19 or 17. Too bad the defense disappeared...

So once more Portland holds Nowitzki to 11 points...and once more it does not matter as they lose by a comfortable margin. They struggle to score, putting up just 80 points, and lose yet again on the road. This season started off so promisingly and is sinking pretty quick. It will get worse before it gets better.

5-10 Portland at 10-5 Dallas

Dallas is better at shooting, rebounding, and defending than Portland. Portland is winless on the road. Dallas has only lost once at home. Portland started the season strong and is fading. Dallas started strong, had a tough middle stretch, and now seems to be getting its groove back. There is no reason to think Dallas won't blow Portland out.

When they met in Portland Roy had a career high 32 and Nowitzki scored just 11. It is too much to ask for a repeat of that. Portland's confidence is low. Only Aldridge and Outlaw are playing well offensively right now. To beat Dallas, 4 or 5 guys have to step up.

Not much to say about this one, I just don't have much hope that Portland will suddenly rise up and beat one of the better teams in their building. I actually kind of see a beat-down coming our way, I would not be shocked at all to see a 15 - 20 point or more blow-out.

For Portland to win I think 2 or three of the following have to have monster games and the other 2 have to have at least close to average games: Roy, Aldridge, Webster, Outlaw, Jack. If Webster goes for 20, Aldridge drops in 30 and the rest have at least decent days, Portland could pull the upset. But I would not count on it.

Indiana 95, Portland 89

Portland, as they often do, started off well. Aldridge took 4 of the first 6 shots and Portland had a 6-2 lead. That was at the 8:39 mark. He only got 2 more shots in the quarter, 1 a dunk and the other he was fouled and made both free throws. Roy had a good first quarter, also scoring 8, and Portland had a 22-17 lead. They were struggling a bit to score but playing good defense and things were looking up. The second quarter found Outlaw and Aldridge leading the way. Portland stepped up their scoring a bit, tallying 24, but their defense faded a bit, giving up 25. Still, a 46-42 lead at the half was promising. Aldridge, Roy and Outlaw were scoring, Webster had a few points...the night had promise.


Then the third quarter hit. All season the third has been a bugaboo for the Blazers. Leads evaporate, promising nights turn ugly. Webster hit a trey a couple minutes in...and then Portland elected not to score for the next 4 minutes. 7 minutes into the quarter they had nothing but the Webster 3 and an Aldridge dunk. After Aldridge scored they had turned a 4 point lead into an 8 point deficit. What happened?

Try 5 missed 3s and a couple turnovers. Portland got pushed to the perimeter, Roy and Aldridge each missed a couple shots, and Webster missed a couple lay-ups. Suddenly you are in a funk and shots you normally make are rimming out. Aldridge tallied 6 points in the quarter, Outlaw had 4 points late, and the Webster three represented the only other scoring done by any Blazer. A 13 point quarter at home is not going to get the job done. Portland was down 8, 67-59, going into the 4th quarter. Ugly.

But they did not lay down. A 13 - 2 run gave them a 3 point lead with a shade over 8 minutes left. Portland was competing, a very positive sign. Then they ran out of offense. They struggled to score until the game was over.

Early in the season Portland was one of the best shooting teams in the league. Then Roy started struggling. Those struggles continue (4-14 shooting, 4 turnovers...though he also had 10 boards and 8 assists) from the field. Webster also has been struggling since the first few games (4-12). Suddenly 40% nights are nothing shocking or surprising. But that poor shooting seems to mostly stem from the third quarter. They consistently are in the game, often even leading, until the third. Then they dig such a deep hole that even when, as they did against Indiana, they find a way to retake the lead, their energy level is not what it should be.

It is too bad, too, because they squandered a magnificent effort by Outlaw who checked in with 26 points and 7 boards. Portland has the talent to win on any given night, but they do not have the consistency.

A couple of questions arise.

1) Why is Roy struggling so much with his shot?
Remember those heel issues that held him out of pre-season? Is it bothering him? He is missing shots he normally makes, and in huge numbers. Is he just on a cold streak, have other teams figured him out...or is he hurting? If he is hurting then Portland needs to take a very real look at their long-term goals. I appreciate that Roy is a team guy and wants to play. But maybe they would be better off insisting he get the surgery, get right, and come back healthy. If he is risking long-term damage in order to play...it is totally not worth it. Portland needs Roy for a decade and change, not this season.

2) Is it coaching?
Portland will find something that works...Aldridge had another 22 point, 9 rebound game...but not ride that horse when it matters. They consistently come out flat in the third quarter. I like the job McMillan does overall. But there are times it seems like he loses focus. They struggle to score and either he does not identify their best option or the point guards do not listen. There are things they can do.
Aldridge has proven very effective playing off pick and rolls. Webster can get open when he is not stuck in the corner and told not to move from there. Jack has penetrate-and-kick skills. Yet Portland consistently struggles to score for long stretches of the game. Finding a way to avoid this should be a priority for Coach McMillan.

It is still early and no reason to panic, but there are issues creeping up that must be identified and corrected. Saying "We will have Oden next year" is not the answer. Developing the players we already have is.

Portland heads to Dallas for a game that, frankly, at this point in the season is pretty much unwinnable. The team psyche is on the verge of being crushed. Let's hope someone steps up on a consistent basis to help Aldridge because if not, this team might disintegrate.