Preview: Portland vs. New Jersey

4-7. Not the record expected at this point in the season. A team full of promise and hope. A team with 3 big stars and a roster of talented subs. 1 star injured.

This is the story for Portland and New Jersey both. They have identical records and similar stories. After the draft is was expected Portland would be driven by big-name stars Greg Oden, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge while New Jersey would ride the talents of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson. Now, a month in we know Oden is starting play next year and Carter is out for a few more games probably. Both teams could reasonably expect to come in with 7-4 records yet both are 4-7. Both teams have had problems scoring. The question is...are they headed the same direction?

New Jersey has started 8 different people. The only locks seem to be Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. at least until Carter returns. Krstic has started the next most, 8 times, but he is averaging but 16 minutes. The Nets are a team in turmoil. They scored all of 69 against the Boston juggernaut. The Heat held them to the low 90s. If they score 100 they get nose bleeds from the altitude.

How is this possible on a team where Kidd is averaging 10 assists a game? Easy...they shoot 43%. Well, Portland has given up 70% + shooting for a quarter (the 4th against Charlotte) and a half (the 2nd against the 76ers). So this might be a chance for New Jersey to get healthy.

Also, Kidd is exactly the type of point guard that has caused the Blazers fits in the last few games. He can penetrate at will which gets their defense scrambling, leads to open shots and then offensive rebounds. The Blazers have to adjust their defense to stop that penetration and must figure out a way to control the defensive boards.

At the offensive end they need to work more cohesively. Webster needs to be more aggressive at driving more and standing around in the corner waiting to launch 3s less. I am still a fan, I just hope he gets over his struggles soon. They need to be more aggressive in looking for Aldridge, also, and Roy needs to get involved in the offense earlier.

Portland should win the game...but it is not a huge upset if they lose and if their psyche is shot, they could even get blown out. But I predict a win, say in the 6 - 8 point range inside the last couple minutes.

Charlotte 101, Portland 92

The Blazers are a streaky team this year.
They lost their first 3 games, all on the road.
They won their next 4 games, all at home.
They lost their next 4 games, all on the road.

I figured they were not ready to beat Denver. I wrongly thought they were ready to defeat Philadelphia. With the confidence of their home wins against Dallas, Detroit and Charlotte I thought they would handily beat Philadelphia which would lead to further wins against Washington and Charlotte. All three of those were eminently winnable games against teams Portland was better than. At half-time, even after the third quarter against Philadelphia, I looked like a genius.

Then things fell apart. They gave up a blistering shooting percentage, gave back 21 points in the 4th quarter alone and lost a game they should have won by double digits. I instantly revised my prediction to having them lose every game on the road trip.

They did not disappoint. They went out and laid down to a bad Wizards team that was missing its best player, then went into Charlotte to face a team whose best player is out for the year.

And promptly had a horrendous game. They shot 42%. They gave up 19 turnovers. They got Aldridge only 6 shots...and he played but 20 minutes.

That is one move NBA coaches make that I often wonder about. Sure, Aldridge was in foul trouble...but would you not rather have him for 25 or 30 minutes and have him foul out than have him for 20 minutes and have a foul left? Let him play a bit more. Let him get that foul...or maybe learn how to play with foul trouble and still be effective. The Blazers need more than 6 shots from LA if they are going to win games.

The Blazers have talent, no doubt, but there is even less doubt that offensively they have Roy and Aldridge on one level, then everybody else. The difference is that big. And when Roy struggles and Aldridge is non-existent they just are not going to win.

I was able to listen to most of the first half. The Blazers were struggling mightily. They were careless with the ball, giving up turnover after turnover after turnover, they were not rebounding defensively...for the fame they gave up a whopping 13 rebounds...and they were not identifying their scorers and getting the ball to them. They followed up a respectable 23 point quarter with a woeful 13 point quarter...and 3 of those were a desperation half-court heave with time expiring.

Somehow Portland has to find a way to create scoring opportunities. 92 points is not going to win many games, particularly when you are giving up 47% shooting to teams like the Bobcats and putting them at the line almost 30 times. That is a path to numerous blow-outs.

This game wasn't. Portland even managed to take a lead early in the 4th quarter before allowing their defense to implode once more. 38 point quarters happen to the Suns, not the Bobcats.

Reports have surfaced of McMillan really unloading on the players behind closed doors. It is understandable why he would. This road trip is not the type of performance you would expect from a team that came together before training camp to work out together and build chemistry. It is not the type of performance you would expect from a team with players like Brandon Roy who is trying to build himself as a leader, with players like Blake and Przybilla who took less money to come here because they liked the direction it is heading, with players like Aldridge who typically play with a smile on their face because they are enjoying the game.

Portland laid down to Denver and Washington, did not even try to compete with either. They gave away a 17 point 4th quarter lead and lost to probably the worst team in the league. Then they gave up a huge 4th quarter to an improving but not yet good Charlotte team. It was a terrible, terrible set-back in their season that, at the end of the year, we will look back on as the time they lost their playoff spot. Sad.

I still like this team, I still think it has talent and possibilities, and there is still time for them to turn it around, win 42+ games and sneak into the playoffs. But I no longer am positive they will. Now it is more like a long-shot hope.

After the Philadelphia loss, I predicted they would lose every game on the road trip. I just hoped I was wrong. On the bright side, they are coming home, so they should win a couple now.

Portland at Philadelphia, at Washington

I thought the Blazers would defeat Philadelphia handily. Portland has the better players, better coach, and is just all around better. Plus, they should come out energized and angry after laying down to Denver.

They did. They built a 25 point lead. They held Philadelphia scoreless...not without a field goal...scoreless. Philadelphia backed up a 17 point first quarter with those 8 minutes and Portland built a 25 point lead.

They gave a bunch of it back in the last 4 minutes but then rebuilt their lead. The third quarter was more of the same...the Sixers would make a run, Portland would bring the lead back up. After 3, they were ahead by 17.

Everything was in place. Portland would get a comfortable win, then follow it up with nice wins over Washington and Charlotte and come home with a 3 game winning streak and a 7-4 record to start a home stretch. Buoyed by their success, they would again have a strong home stand and be about 10-4, maybe a little better, not much worse.

Until they fell apart. They got crushed. Creamed. Demolished. Obliterated. They gave back all 17 points and another 4 and snatched a 4 point defeat out of the jaws of victory.

I did not hear the 4th quarter. I don't know what happened. What I do know is that was inexcusable. It firmly planted a 5000 gorilla on their back. Now, not only are they winless on the road, they lost to a team they should have beat handily, gave up a 25 point lead, and gave up a 17 point 4th quarter lead. Now they will struggle mightily on the road all year.

That loss made it a foregone conclusion they would lose to Washington.

Washington is not a very good team and without Agent Zero they are even worse. Agent Zero...I like to watch him play but don't want him on my team. Like a John Starks or an Allen Iverson, he can single-handedly win a game if he gets hot. And like Starks and Iverson, he can single-handedly lose a game with numerous bad shots and bricks when he is cold. And like Starks and Iverson, he does not stop shooting or find the hot guy.

Well, without him Washington looked like what they are. A bad team without their best player. They shot poorly, under 38%, and had pretty porous defense. Fortunately for Washington, Portland was busy laying down. They gave up so many offensive rebounds that they gave up 19 more shots than they took and were never really in the game. As bad as Washington played, Portland played worse. This was a game of "Who wants it less". Portland was dispirited, disinterested in playing, rebounding, etc.

To be sure, there were flashes. Przybilla blocked shots maniacally, Outlaw had a solid, solid game as did J-Jack, and Webster, still mired in his shooting slump, showed some flashes as, no longer satisfied with hanging out at the three point line, drove to the basket and showed some aggression. That bodes well for him to continue improving.

But it was never a team effort. Przybilla would block a shot, 2 Blazers would watch, and 3 Wizards would crash the board, pick up the loose ball, and throw it down.

Had Portland not disintegrated against the 6ers, this game was theirs for the taking. Instead, they laid down and lost to a vastly inferior Washington team.

And therein lies the problem. Can Portland regain the chemistry and confidence that makes them better than many of the teams they face? Yes...but not on this road trip.

Normally, I would predict a Blazer win in Charlotte. Now? No, I think they lose, and lose by quite a bit...6 points or more, and don't be surprised to see a blow-out.

4 - 3 Portland @ 2 - 6 Philadelphia

Portland just did not compete against Denver. One suspects they will be a little more prepared in Philadelphia. And even though it is a weak Philadelphia team, this is a key game for the Blazers season.

Coming in, people will no doubt make much of their 0-4 road record. But look at who those teams have been and how Portland has played them: San Antonio, Portland had a shot at winning. Charlotte, they started slow but made a run. Against Houston and Denver they pretty much laid down. Still, those are 4 tough places to win and their performance against 2 of them was very respectable.

Portland is a much better team than Philadelphia and should win. If they do not, for whatever reason, then the road struggles will become a thousand pound gorilla and they will struggle on the road for the rest of the season. Conversely, if they win...as they should...then that will build their confidence and lead to a few road wins this season, which they will need to reach their post-season berth which I expect for them.

Philadelphia, like Portland, is a young team. Philadelphia, unlike Portland, lacks the talent to go places, and Philadelphia plays in the weak Eastern Conference. They try to mask this by slowing the game down and minimizing the number of possessions to hide the talent discrepancy.

Starting Line-ups
Frye is coming off his season high. He will continue to get 4 - 6 points a night, then give way to the defense and rebounding of Przybilla. Samuel Dalembert is no stud, but he will have a slight advantage over Frye, scoring wise.

Aldridge had an off night against Denver and still shot almost 50% and went for 15 and 9. Philadelphia apparently plays a small line-up. I cannot even figure out who their power forward is. As near as I can tell they start Iguodala, Andre Miller, Willie Green, and Kyle Korver alongside Dalembert, with Reggie Evans logging heavy minutes. Of those, Evans is the monster at 6'8". The others are 6'6", 6'2", 6'3", and 6'6" respectively. Only 7'0" Jason Smith is hitting about 17 minutes a game and his statistical contribution is negligible, 5 points and 3 boards.

Meanwhile, Portland has more size across the board and more talent across the board. The Sixers will struggle to score and to keep up with Portland on the boards, a rare luxury for Portland who usually gets outrebounded.

This is one of those rare nights where if Portland plays an average game, they win by a lot. If they implode, they should still win, just it will be close. They are that much better than the 76ers.

Portland by 10+

Denver 100, Portland 93

For Portland to win they need Webster to come out of his slump, Aldridge to have a monster game, Jack to continue his outstanding run of bench play, and Anthony and Iverson to have poor shooting games. If that happens, they will win. Otherwise, this could be a blow-out the other way. Portland has the talent to win any game on their schedule, the question is whether they have figured that out yet. I would not be surprised to see a Portland win...but I don't expect it.Denver by 8+ points


Webster: 12 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4-10 shooting.
Aldridge: 15 points, 9 rebounds, 5 - 11 shooting, 5-9 free throws


Portland came out slow...they looked like they were moving at shoot-around speed or running half-speed. There was no energy. Sparked by an offensive explosion by Channing Frye...a season-high tying 8 points...they stayed close for a while and were only down by 5, but anyone could tell that barring a burst of energy they were going nowhere all night.

The Blazers never looked interested and could not buy a bucket. Coming into the night they had the 4th highest field goal percentage in the league. That will drop a bit after their 39% effort.

This is the first time I have seen this Blazers team not compete. Some rumored statements I heard indicated they were awed by Iverson and Anthony. This is unfortunate. They have played, and played well, against better players than either of those. I would rather have Duncan than Anthony, Paul than Iverson...actually, Iverson is another guy like Marbury or Francis. If he were a Blazer I would not be a fan of the team.

Meanwhile, Denver proved to be a pretty classless team. K-mart and Camby both delivered head-shots with their elbows and then yapped about it. Portland got into a complaining mode and even Aldridge went after Camby at one point.

Win or lose, this is a trend I hope ends. Portland has been real good about not complaining and about just having fun playing a great game. On a night where they just were not into it and their shots weren't falling, they momentarily deteriorated into a complaining team looking to the officials to bail them out. Hopefully McMillan jumps all over that and gets them back on track.

Portland showed early on they could play with Denver. Expect them to do much better on their next trip. For now, it is a disappointing game, but just one loss. Expect them to get it together and win out on this road trip.

Preview: 4-3 Portland at 5-3 Denver

Denver is a real Jekyll and Hyde team this year. They are capable of beating the top teams...or of losing to the worst. Portland falls squarely in between those. They are not a playoff series winning team (yet), but they are no longer low echelon, either.

This game is troublesome to forecast. Portland won 4 straight against 3 tough opponents and one weaker foe...but all 4 were at home. Denver, after a slow start, has won 3 straight and is starting a long home stretch with 13 of their next 18 at home. Will they overlook Portland?

Center
Frye is consistent...4 - 6 points, then disappear. That is okay because Przybilla is playing well off the bench. Denver counters with Marcus Camby...he scores more and rebounds better than either Portland center. Defensively he likes to block shots, too.

Advantage: Denver

Power Forward
Aldridge is creating some buzz for Most Improved Player and "future all-star". Nene Hilario is out and Kevin Martin is coming back from injury. This should be another monster game for Aldridge as Denver tries to get in with guys who hustle and play hard but are nowhere near as talented.

Advantage: Portland

Small Forward
Webster is in a shooting slump, and those were home games. On the other side of the coin Carmelo Anthony is also shooting poorly...but he is putting up a lot more shots and hitting enough to score almost 26 a game. He also passes better than Webster.

Advantage: Denver

Shooting Guard
Roy is a stud and the Blazers are doing a better job of getting him more involved early. If that continues he will continue to put up good numbers and the win total will keep increasing. Opposing him is head case J.R. Smith. Smith will pull off eye-popping, athletic moves and score a little bit but he simply isn't in Roy's class. Not many players are at this position.

Advantage: Portland

Point Guard
I am becoming a believer in Blake. Sure, he does not score a lot (1 point against the Pistons) but he consistently gets 8 - 9 assists and seldom turns the ball over (1 against the Pistons) and does not need a lot of shots. On the other side you have shoot first, second and third Iverson...who suddenly has become a shoot first and third, but pass second point guard, averaging a very respectable 8.6 assists and shooting better than he has in many, many years. The career 42% shooter who shot too much and scored too few points for the number of shots he took is suddenly shooting a respectable 46% and that, in my eyes, means this is pretty much the best year of his career sans the one where he pretty much carried the Sixers to the Finals with essentially no help. Everything Blake does, Iverson is doing better.

Advantage: Denver

Bench
Portland has had a really good effort from the bench since Jack and Przybilla moved there. It only gets better when Outlaw plays well. Denver has time-absorbers who will hustle and try but simply are not as good as Portland's bench.

What needs to happen
Denver loves to run and this could be an opportunity for Portland to get out and get some easy buckets for Aldridge, Jack and Roy to counteract the firepower of Anthony and Iverson. However, it will be the 2nd night of a back to back with a night of travel between and Roy's heel is a consideration. Denver has been playing with a chip on their shoulder and will want to establish their home court.

For Portland to win they need Webster to come out of his slump, Aldridge to have a monster game, Jack to continue his outstanding run of bench play, and Anthony and Iverson to have poor shooting games. If that happens, they will win. Otherwise, this could be a blow-out the other way. Portland has the talent to win any game on their schedule, the question is whether they have figured that out yet. I would not be surprised to see a Portland win...but I don't expect it.

Denver by 8+ points

Portland 102, Detroit 94

I said, "Post-Sonic add: Detroit started fast, almost ran Seattle off the court, then gave it back, letting Seattle tie it with about 2:35 left in the game. Seattle, however, could not finish. Portland can because they have the talent in Roy, Aldridge and Webster to create the easy scoring opportunities they need to at the end of the game. I don't think Billups and Prince will both have the bad games they had against Seattle, but neither will Hamilton have the transcendent game.Portland should win this one, but it will be a close game."


So let's go to the scoreboard.
Early on, Detroit rode a 14-6 run that, except for a late 3 by Outlaw, would have given them an 8 point lead after one. The clutch shot by Travis, however, left it a reasonable 5 point deficit. Aldridge and Webster played well, combining for 11 points while Billups scored steadily and Wallace hit three late 3s and a deuce to give him a monster 11 point quarter on his own.

Portland outscored the Pistons by 2 in the second period led by 10 from Jarrett Jack and even Przybilla got in on the action, pitching in 6 points. The 53-50 half-time score was encouraging for Portland fans as Roy and Webster had yet to get going but Aldridge, Jack, and Outlaw were all having strong games.

The third quarter was all about the Blazer stars as Aldridge and Roy each scored 10 points in the quarter...the rest of the team combined for 8. Meanwhile, Portland put on the clamps on defense, holding the Pistons to 21 points after 27 and 27 in the first 2. Entering the 4th quarter it was all tied at 74.

The 4th quarter, the Blazers and the Pistons traded the lead for 3 minutes with 4 lead changes in that span. Portland took over with a 12-4 run that the Pistons never recovered from, never closing closer than 3 points with a shade over 2 minutes to go. Down the stretch the Blazers played tough defense and made 6 of 8 free throws to close out the game with an 8 point victory to go 4 - 3 on the season.


It was a great victory over a tough, talented team. They outscored a good Pistons bench 48 - 23 and their big guns for the most part played well. Aldridge hit 22 points and 10 rebounds against a tough defender in Rasheed Wallace and did it on solid 9-16 shooting while Roy added 20 points on an identical 9-16. Webster struggled again but he will get back on track soon.

This was a great, great home stand for the Blazers. They knocked off a formerly undefeated Hornet team most people have slotted for the playoffs, defeated title contender Dallas, handily beat the team they should (Memphis) and knocked off a strong Pistons team that had lost but 1 game previously. Well done, and let's keep the excitement rolling.