5-10 Portland at 10-5 Dallas

Dallas is better at shooting, rebounding, and defending than Portland. Portland is winless on the road. Dallas has only lost once at home. Portland started the season strong and is fading. Dallas started strong, had a tough middle stretch, and now seems to be getting its groove back. There is no reason to think Dallas won't blow Portland out.

When they met in Portland Roy had a career high 32 and Nowitzki scored just 11. It is too much to ask for a repeat of that. Portland's confidence is low. Only Aldridge and Outlaw are playing well offensively right now. To beat Dallas, 4 or 5 guys have to step up.

Not much to say about this one, I just don't have much hope that Portland will suddenly rise up and beat one of the better teams in their building. I actually kind of see a beat-down coming our way, I would not be shocked at all to see a 15 - 20 point or more blow-out.

For Portland to win I think 2 or three of the following have to have monster games and the other 2 have to have at least close to average games: Roy, Aldridge, Webster, Outlaw, Jack. If Webster goes for 20, Aldridge drops in 30 and the rest have at least decent days, Portland could pull the upset. But I would not count on it.

Indiana 95, Portland 89

Portland, as they often do, started off well. Aldridge took 4 of the first 6 shots and Portland had a 6-2 lead. That was at the 8:39 mark. He only got 2 more shots in the quarter, 1 a dunk and the other he was fouled and made both free throws. Roy had a good first quarter, also scoring 8, and Portland had a 22-17 lead. They were struggling a bit to score but playing good defense and things were looking up. The second quarter found Outlaw and Aldridge leading the way. Portland stepped up their scoring a bit, tallying 24, but their defense faded a bit, giving up 25. Still, a 46-42 lead at the half was promising. Aldridge, Roy and Outlaw were scoring, Webster had a few points...the night had promise.


Then the third quarter hit. All season the third has been a bugaboo for the Blazers. Leads evaporate, promising nights turn ugly. Webster hit a trey a couple minutes in...and then Portland elected not to score for the next 4 minutes. 7 minutes into the quarter they had nothing but the Webster 3 and an Aldridge dunk. After Aldridge scored they had turned a 4 point lead into an 8 point deficit. What happened?

Try 5 missed 3s and a couple turnovers. Portland got pushed to the perimeter, Roy and Aldridge each missed a couple shots, and Webster missed a couple lay-ups. Suddenly you are in a funk and shots you normally make are rimming out. Aldridge tallied 6 points in the quarter, Outlaw had 4 points late, and the Webster three represented the only other scoring done by any Blazer. A 13 point quarter at home is not going to get the job done. Portland was down 8, 67-59, going into the 4th quarter. Ugly.

But they did not lay down. A 13 - 2 run gave them a 3 point lead with a shade over 8 minutes left. Portland was competing, a very positive sign. Then they ran out of offense. They struggled to score until the game was over.

Early in the season Portland was one of the best shooting teams in the league. Then Roy started struggling. Those struggles continue (4-14 shooting, 4 turnovers...though he also had 10 boards and 8 assists) from the field. Webster also has been struggling since the first few games (4-12). Suddenly 40% nights are nothing shocking or surprising. But that poor shooting seems to mostly stem from the third quarter. They consistently are in the game, often even leading, until the third. Then they dig such a deep hole that even when, as they did against Indiana, they find a way to retake the lead, their energy level is not what it should be.

It is too bad, too, because they squandered a magnificent effort by Outlaw who checked in with 26 points and 7 boards. Portland has the talent to win on any given night, but they do not have the consistency.

A couple of questions arise.

1) Why is Roy struggling so much with his shot?
Remember those heel issues that held him out of pre-season? Is it bothering him? He is missing shots he normally makes, and in huge numbers. Is he just on a cold streak, have other teams figured him out...or is he hurting? If he is hurting then Portland needs to take a very real look at their long-term goals. I appreciate that Roy is a team guy and wants to play. But maybe they would be better off insisting he get the surgery, get right, and come back healthy. If he is risking long-term damage in order to play...it is totally not worth it. Portland needs Roy for a decade and change, not this season.

2) Is it coaching?
Portland will find something that works...Aldridge had another 22 point, 9 rebound game...but not ride that horse when it matters. They consistently come out flat in the third quarter. I like the job McMillan does overall. But there are times it seems like he loses focus. They struggle to score and either he does not identify their best option or the point guards do not listen. There are things they can do.
Aldridge has proven very effective playing off pick and rolls. Webster can get open when he is not stuck in the corner and told not to move from there. Jack has penetrate-and-kick skills. Yet Portland consistently struggles to score for long stretches of the game. Finding a way to avoid this should be a priority for Coach McMillan.

It is still early and no reason to panic, but there are issues creeping up that must be identified and corrected. Saying "We will have Oden next year" is not the answer. Developing the players we already have is.

Portland heads to Dallas for a game that, frankly, at this point in the season is pretty much unwinnable. The team psyche is on the verge of being crushed. Let's hope someone steps up on a consistent basis to help Aldridge because if not, this team might disintegrate.

7-8 Indiana at 5-9 Portland

Portland once more manages to get a game with a team missing their best player. This time it is former Trailblazer Jermaine O Neal who will be out. The departure of Jermaine is a microcosm of everything the Blazers were doing when they were a franchise in decline. They drafted him out of high school, sat him on the bench, watched him develop into a budding superstar, then let him go. What were they thinking? He had shown flashes of his huge potential and was about to spring into the outstanding player he has become. Now he is with a franchise that seemed to be in decline or at least in a state of flux.

Yet it is a talented team even with Jermaine out of action. They are coming off a road win in Denver. They have, not including Jermaine, 5 people averaging double figures and 2 more averaging over 9 points a game. They score over a hundred a game even with 2 major contributors (Jermaine and Ike Diogu) out with injury.

Even though Portland is catching Indiana at a good time...on a lengthy road trip, without their star and a talented role player...this will be a tough game for Portland. Dunleavy is on a role and the Pacers are turning their season around. Meanwhile, after a strong start the Blazers are fading.

They are confused about where to get consistent offense. They typically do not identify their best scoring option and take advantage of it. Their leader is reeling from a series of bad games.

Portland is a strange team this year. They have the talent to compete with any team in the league. The question seems to be do they have the basketball intelligence and/or the heart to compete?

That is a strange question to ask of a team with two players (Przybilla and Blake) who took less money to play here, one player who took over leadership as a rookie (Roy), and who, as a whole, voluntarily got together before training camp to work out together and develop unity, cohesion and chemistry. But it is a valid question. Why is this team losing games it could and should win? Is it just youth and inexperience? Or does it go deeper than that?

The Pacers start Foster at center, Williams and Granger at the forward spots, and Dunleavey and Tinsley at guard. Foster drags 9 boards a game while Dunleavy and Granger each snag about 6. This could be troublesome for a Portland team whose second leading rebounder, Przybilla, is a sub and their third leading board man, Webster, only snares 5. In short, Portland will struggle all night on the boards.

If they continue their tough defense, there will be a lot of balls coming back from the rim. Unless Webster and Outlaw in particular step up to help on the boards, that alone might be the difference in the game. If both teams shoot roughly the same percentage, Portland continues to stink up the joint from the foul line, and they get crushed on the boards it will be a long night.

For Portland to win they need to identify AND USE their scorers. If whoever has the hot hand is ignored for 8 - 15 minute stretches Portland will lose and lose big. Conversely, if Aldridge and Roy have average games, Webster has a good night and they get some extra offense from one or two of their third line scorers then Portland will win. They could also win on a big night from just Aldridge, just Roy, or just Webster. There is a pretty good chance this will also be a Chalupa night. Overall, though, I think negativity is seeping into my mind because I just can't see my way clear to predict anything other than another Portland loss by 10+ points.

Orlando 85, Portland 74

It took Portland 4 minutes to get LaMarcus Aldridge a shot. He made it. He took 4 shots in the first period. Travis Outlaw was out of his mind, scoring 8. Portland scored 27. They had a ten point lead. They were scoring, defending, rebounding...they looked good.

Then they fell apart. After a 27 point quarter, they only totaled 47 points in the next 3 quarters. How did that happen? Well, for one thing, Roy is still struggling with his shot. He missed from everywhere...3s, drives, mid-range jumpers. Also, Portland forgot about this one guy they have...LaMarcus something or other. Case in point.

Third period:
First possession: Aldridge turn around jump shot. Made.
Second possession: Aldridge turn around fade way: Made.
Third Possession: Aldridge 3 second violation.
Fourth Possession: Aldridge dunk. Time: 10:30.

Next Aldridge shot: the 3:16 mark (he made it). He took and made 4 shots in the quarter. When you score but 16 points in the quarter, how does someone who is 4 for 4 in the quarter and 6 for 8 on the night just 4 shots in the quarter? Webster scored 6, Outlaw 2. It was an ugly quarter. Get Aldridge more shots!

Is it a shock Portland, without Aldridge or Webster in the game for much of the quarter, struggled to score in the 4th?

Defensively, Portland did a great job. Howard struggled all night. The Magic shot just 41% for the game. Offensively, they made a huge error. I am a huge Roy fan, but this was not a strong night for him. On a night when Aldridge shot 8-15, Webster 6-12 and Outlaw 5-13, Roy's 4 -18 is a bad sign. The guy having the worst shooting night should not be taking the most shots. Portland needs to identify their hot shooters and get them the ball more often.

They also need to improve on their abominable free throw shooting. How on earth does an NBA team shoot worse than 54% from the line?

When the season started I had high hopes for this team. They were letting Aldridge get enough touches, Roy was penetrating and finding the open man, Webster was hitting shots, Przybilla was playing defense and rebounding. I genuinely believed they were playoff bound. They should win 42 - 45 games, which I know seems like a lot...but I believe they are that talented. Aldridge could easily be a 24 - 25 point a night guy, Webster 15 - 18 if used better (i.e., don't hide him motionless in the corner and run the play on the far side of the court. Let him drive a bit, get some mid-range jumpers, etc.), and Roy better than 20 a game. There is enough fill in talent with Outlaw, Jack, Blake, and Frye to give them a potent offense.

Defensively they have great potential in Przybilla, Aldridge, Webster and Outlaw. Outlaw in particular can be an All-NBA defender. His length, energy and intensity cause major problems for his opponent. And Portland is holding their opponents to low shooting percentages. But then they give it back on the boards.

They are close to being a very, very good team. If Oden is as advertised then next year might be the Cinderella year. But this year, ever since the Philadelphia game, is looking long.

In that game Portland had a 24 point road lead. They were on the verge of sweeping their road trip. Everything was in place. They were destroying a bad Philadelphia team. They had Washington without Agent Zero and the Bobcats without Morrison in front of them. They would come home riding a 4 game road win streak (what road monkey?) and, their confidence high, beat the injured, tired Nets. They blew that lead, gave up against Washington, and lost a winnable game to make that road monkey into a monster. Suddenly the home court is not as kind. They lost to a New Jersey team they should have beat in a game they had won. They can't score against Orlando. The season is heading for the lottery...but it didn't have to. It was on the edge of surprising goodness.

I still like to watch them. I still like the make-up of the team. They just need to find that missing, undefinable "something" and get themselves righted. Hopefully it happens soon.

Preview: Orlando at Portland

Orlando's star is Dwight Howard, a center who scores frequently and rebounds like mad. Supporting him on the boards are Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkglu, giving the Magic a monstrous front line (Lewis and Turkoglu are both 6'10"). Portland will be giving up size up front and facing a team that is better at scoring and rebounding across the board.


Only Roy stacks up to have any appreciable advantage over his opposite number as Keith Bogans is the weak link in the Orlando starting line-up.

Meanwhile, Orlando has been tearing it up on the road, coming in with a 6-1 road record. Portland, meanwhile, lost their first home game to a bad New Jersey team with an injured but playing Vince Carter and then struggled mightily against a bad Sacramento team that was fighting internally. There is not a lot of reason to believe these trends will change.

Orlando is a much better team. Portland can win if they develop some offense that takes advantage of their strengths and keeps going to people who are scoring instead of continuing to use them.

They also need better shooting from Webster. He has been struggling for a while lately. This is largely because Portland tends to hide him in the corner, then go to the other side of the court to run their offense. They need to get him more involved and doing more than hanging out in the corner shooting 3s or being given the ball with the clock winding down to force up awkward, off-balance shots with little chance of going in. Try running him off some screens, get him some mid-range jumpers, and get him to drive a bit more.

Let Aldridge go to work down low. Artest, Duncan, and others have failed to slow him down. The best defense anyone has offered for Aldridge is for Portland to keep the ball away from him and that has worked well.

Roy also looks like he is hurting. It will be deadly for Portland's season if he goes down.

Last but not least...enough of the zone already. Portland is struggling to rebound and gives up way too much penetration. They have capable defenders. Outlaw, when he is on the ball, is an irritating defender who causes problems with his energy, intensity, and length. Aldridge is also developing nicely. Against the Kings he often defended smaller, quicker players and blocked or altered their shots. He has issues against stronger, bigger players, but that is where Przybilla is supremely useful. Webster also has shown excellent flashes, using his quickness and tenacity to cause problems for his opponents. He did a very nice job on Martin when they were matched up.

The zone is useful and effective in segments but when they run it exclusively, Portland tends to get lost. Outlaw and Aldridge in particular lose their man or zone far too often and they leave their side of the floor open for quick rotations and wide open shots. Also, the zone is easily penetrated for lay-ups or kick-outs to wide-open shooters. Portland is young and learning...we will see how it works out.

Overall, barring a stat-packing explosion from an unexpected source or two, Portland should lose, probably by double digits. If they get that stand-out performance from any 2 or 3 of the Roy/Jack/Aldridge/Webster group, they should win.

Portland 87, Sacramento 84

LaMarcus Aldridge cored the first 7 Portland points and 9 of their first 11. He had 13 first quarter points (the Blazers scored but 22). He was working it hard. They found something using Roy and Aldridge early that Jack later exploited for his own assist.

And they stopped going to it.

He had 2 shots in the second quarter. This would be fine if they found something else that was working for them. Maybe Webster coming off screens, Roy driving and kicking, or Frye having another offensive explosion. They didn't. They scored all of 18 points in the second quarter. And it was not great Sacramento defense.

Roy had open shots. Webster had open shots. Jack had open shots. Rodriguez, Blake, Outlaw...open shots were easy to come by. Made shots were rare. Fortunately, only Garcia was scoring for Sacramento. Even more importantly, inside the last minute in an 8 second span Outlaw blocked 2 lay-up attempts in spectacular fashion. The Rose Garden was rocking after that and it was just a 1 point deficit, 43-42 at the break.

Aldridge added 8 points in the third including a crowd-pleasing, roof-raising 1 hander where Roy drove and he followed from a bizarre angle with a one-handed follow dunk. It was spectacular. Almost as spectacular was Przybilla turning back a dunk attempt. The third quarter was back and forth as Artest carried the Kings with his 9 points to one-up Aldridge and Sacramento closed the quarter with a 65-62 lead.

The first part of the quarter was about even until Sacramento built a 74-70 lead. Portland scored only 1 point over the next three minutes...but Sacramento scored even fewer. Blake hit back to back threes, Roy scored on a lay-up, Jack added a pair of free throws and suddenly, with 3:41 left Portland had exploded to a 7 point lead, 81-74 with an 11-0 run. Sacramento looked like a team in disarray as Udrih was yelling at players he thought were going the wrong way, Miller and Moore were whining and there was no cohesion. Portland was on the verge of blowing them out.

Somehow, Sacramento clawed their way to an 10-2 run right after that to retake the lead by 1. This is where Portland's youth would battle with the leadership that Roy and Aldridge are reputedly showing. On the road Portland would melt down and give away a game they should have won.

Roy responded with a drive to give Portland the lead. Then he drew the offensive foul on Garcia. With 6 seconds left Portland had the ball and the lead. They inbounded to Jack. Miller hammered him, Artest came over the back, and three Kings were all over him. Astoundingly, the officials called a jump ball!

The Garden was aghast. Boos rained from the rafters. Instead of their best free throw shooter at the line, Jack, with a chance to ice the game, the monstrous Brad Miller would be jumping against the minuscule Jack for possession of the ball for the last shot.

And somehow, some way, Jack won the tip. Outlaw stepped to the line with 4-tenths of a second left. Portland was abysmal at the line for the night, 14-25 at this point. Outlaw is not the man you want at the line in this situation...or is he? He came through, draining them both, and the desperation near half court heave by Artest at the buzzer did not go in. Portland escaped with a 3 point win on a night they should have won by double digits.

Aldridge had a HUGE night with 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 blocks. He shot an unbelievable 12-15 from the field...and 4-8 from the line. Roy also took 15 shots, many of them open, and made but 6. But he added 8 assists and 3 steals. Webster had a rough night from the field but was awesome on the boards, tallying 9, and Outlaw and Przybilla showed their defensive prowess with 3 and 2 blocks respectively.

Across the way, the Kings only mustered 14 shots for their scoring machine Martin who finished with just 21, 6 below his season average. Artest played well with 17 points, 11 boards and 5 assists, and Francisco Garcia showed his talent with another 17 points on 6-11 shooting.

It was not a particularly entertaining game for the most part. It was a low-scoring affair that threatened to turn ugly. Miller dished out 2 elbow to the head and got 2 back, 1 from Aldridge and 1 from Przybilla. There was a lot of chirping going on, most of it the Kings internally. Moore, Udrih and Miller all spent more time yelling at each other than playing the game. I bet the brothers Maloof are glad they unloaded Adelman, the coach who maximized the talent, created a cohesive, unified team that won games it should and some it shouldn't. The Kings are in need of a lot of help. Getting back a healthy Bibby would help as he, Artest, Garcia and Martin can score some points, but until this team gets on the same page, it is going to be a long season in Sacramento.

Nets 106, Blazers 101

I mentioned in my preview the Blazers have problems with penetrating guards. Truer words have seldom been spoken. All night Kidd created offense for the Nets with drives and kicks, Jefferson and Wright got into the lane seemingly at will, and even when the initial shot was missed the Nets got tip-ins or offensive rebounds for extra possessions.

Meanwhile, Aldridge was having a rough night and the Blazers were struggling to create offense. When Frye scored at the 5:18 mark of the quarter Portland trailed 13-8. That is how hard it was for Portland to score early on. After 8 minutes they were scoring just 1 point per minute (their next score was at the 4:41 mark)

Fortunately, Roy came to the rescue and dropped in 13 points over the course of that 4:41 and finished the quarter with 15 . Impossibly, after scoring 8 points in almost 8 minutes, Portland tallied a whopping 18 in the next 4. Portland led after 1 quarter 26-19 and the Rose Garden was rocking.

The second quarter was more of a struggle. When Roy went to the bench the Blazers struggled to score. They got a few points from Jack, Przybilla, and Aldridge finally broke through to score his first points of the game at the 3:14 mark. Meanwhile, New Jersey was getting balanced contributions from their entire line-up. Wright, Jefferson, Boone, Nachbar, Kidd, Williams and Collins all scored at least 2 points as Kidd continued to cause problems with his penetration. By the half it was only 48-45.

Portland got a huge quarter from Frye as he tallied 8, Webster added 7, and Aldridge shook off his 4 point first half to add 6 more. Portland took it to New Jersey early, building an 11 point lead at 73-62 before letting New Jersey go on a bit of a run to close within 5 as Nachbar tallied his 10th point with a dunk at the tail end of the third.

And in the 4th Nachbar ran wild, looking unstoppable as he scored another 13. Jefferson did not stop scoring all night and New jersey put together a 31 point quarter. 8 of those came after an Aldridge dunk at 2:04 gave Portland a 101-98 lead. Then Portland played prevent offense. They started running down the clock. This led to rushed, bad shots, offensive fouls, and no points in the last 2 minutes. Meanwhile, Nachbar drained a 3, Kidd was fouled on a fastbreak, made the bucket and 2 free throws, then in crunch time the Blazers elected to play defense instead of foul. With 9 seconds left Nachbar shot a corner three and missed.

And Kidd grabbed the offensive board, essentially sealing the game. He made both free throws and New Jersey had scored the final 8 points to steal a 104-101 win.

It sounds odd in a game where Portland scored 101 points and shot 54% to say they struggled on offense, but that is exactly what happened. When they found something they did not work they did not stay with it. Aldridge was content to get pushed beyond his comfort zone with his back to the basket and not once in the first half did Portland get him his beloved top of the key elbow jumper. Roy had 21 first half points and ended with 25. Webster was "on" all night and got no shots for long stretches.

It was a game Portland should have won and didn't. They are a young team and it has shown ever since the Denver game. Hopefully they are able to turn it around soon. Meanwhile, it was an entertaining game and showed the potential Portland has.