Cleveland 84, Portland 83

With 4:26 to go in the game when LaMarcus Aldridge dropped in an easy jumper to give the Blazers an 11 point lead I felt like a genius. LeBron James was 9-23 from the field for 26 points...good, but definitely not among his best games, their shooting percentage was in the high 30s, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson were non-factors and the game was there for the taking.



There were several elements that had led to this point in the game. To start with, Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw had done an excellent job on James. Most of his buckets had come on fast breaks or when the Blazers went to their zone. On the occasions he did break down Webster or Outlaw and get to the bucket Joel Przybilla hovered there to turn back his shots. James was getting extremely frustrated by these events. Nor was he getting much help from his team.



Fortunately for Cleveland, Portland was also struggling. Their bench shot a horrific 7 for 33 for the game and normally reliable Steve Blake was 4 for 11. For the game the Blazers would end up shooting just 35%. Still, they maintained a 6 - 12 point lead for the majority of the game.



But when you have a one man team down you need to put the pedal to the metal. Portland needed to expand on that lead and make it so one person could not come back and beat them. Nobody on Cleveland, with the possible exception of Drew Gooden, was stepping up. They did just enough to hang around in that 8 or 10 point deficit range.



Unfortunately for Portland the NBA elected to play 48 minutes instead of the 44 minutes Portland felt like playing. The Blazers shifted into Matador defense mode. James got uncontested shot after uncontested shot. Memo to Portland; this James kid is a good player. He dropped in a three. Gooden somehow got a shot to fall from the lane. James dropped in another three. The closest defenders wore Cavaliers jerseys. The game was tied. Outlaw saw what was happening and went right at James, dropping in a tough shot to give Portland back the lead. Portland got what they needed...James finally missed a shot, another 3...but Gooden got the offensive rebound and was fouled.



When he missed his second shot, Portland had another chance...but Ilgauskas got the offensive rebound. Inexplicably it was not James who took the next shot and when the 3 rimmed off, Portland had everything they needed in place. Well, everything except the willingness to put it in the hands of their most reliable 4th quarter performer, Outlaw...and when Blake's wide open trey rimmed out it was James time. Except he missed the lay-up.



So Portland set up their final possession. The play they had the most success with involved a side screen pick and roll with Roy and Aldridge. Their second best play had been working the ball to Outlaw on the right side and letting him create his own shot. So they wisely had Roy dribble down the clock, set no picks, and got only a no-chance off balance shot.



Still, with 4.9 seconds left they had a 1 point lead. Sure they had had numerous chances to extend it, had somehow survived a barrage of blown opportunities to claim defensive rebounds, had missed their open shots and then gotten no reasonable shot in their last possession, but they had the lead and 2 guys who had caused James problems all night.



So they instead put Brandon Roy on James. Huh? Where did that come from? Well, James must have thought this was practice because he looked like he was doing a layup drill. He cakewalked to the left, drifted down the lane and put in an uncontested layin. Oh, it did not look uncontested. Three Blazer jerseys were within a couple feet of him. They just did not bother to defend it. James is a great player and if nobody attempts to stop the drive or challenge the shot the results will be very favorable for the Cavaliers. James made it look easy and suddenly the Blazers were staring real long odds in the face with something like three tenths of a second and inexplicably one of their shortest players inbounding the ball. Cleveland coach Mike Brown put Ilgauksas in front of him which effectively ended the game.



The final box score shows James with 37 points on 13-29 shooting and that is what sets him apart from virtually every other player in the league. Whereas Roy struggled down the stretch, making no shots and getting no easy ones, James got open looks from outside and from inside and he made them. He turned a poor shooting, average scoring loss into a decent shooting night, great scoring night and a win for his team.



There has been a local debate over whether Roy should be an All-Star. I have not won popularity contests by suggesting that while he is clearly the Blazer MVP he is not yet at the All-Star level. Statistically speaking he is not one of the top 12 Western Conference players, though statistics do not tell the entire tale. But a night like this is where an All-Star earns their honors. Roy had a very good night...he rebounded well (7), distributed well (8 assists) and shot 7-16, totaling 16 points. But when it mattered, when he had to either score or identify the right person to get the ball he did not come through and defensively he was destroyed by James.



I am a huge Brandon Roy fan. His jersey is the first bit of apparel I have ever worn with any individual player's name on it. He is going to be a difference maker for this team for many, many years to come. But he is still evolving as a player and this game was an example of a game where he did not take the steps an All-Star needs to. And as has been happening more and more often of late, none of the role players stepped up in his place to pull the game out.



This game was all about James. He scored 44% of the Cavaliers points, over a quarter of their rebounds, and on a night the Cavaliers not named James all failed to make double digits he still found a way to pick off 4 assists, almost a third of their total of thirteen. It was the type of transcendent performance that makes games by players like James worth watching.



While I am disappointed that Portland lost I hope they use this as a learning experience and figure out ways to deliver that knockout blow. All season they have won the close games and perhaps they have come to count on that so they relax a bit as they seemed to do when Aldridge hit that jumper. But this time, not putting a team away when they had the chance came back to bite them and deservedly so. When you give a great player a chance, he takes it and this was a prime example.

24-19 Cleveland at 26-18 Portland

Prior to the season when our group of season ticket holders got together to draft our tickets there were only a handful of games I had on my "I really want to see this game" list. Boston was one, to see their transcendent collection of talent, Seattle was one to see the Oden-Durant match-up of instantaneously contributing rookies, and of course Cleveland to see King James, a player so good he essentially took down the Eastern Conference by himself last year. When you look at the Cavaliers roster it is hardly imposing. Yet some how, some way he took them to the Finals to experience the most one-sided thrashing we have seen in quite some time. Because as good as James is, the TEAMS in the Western Conference are simply that much better. Tonight should be another example of that.

The Lebrons are coming off a game between Lebron James and Kobe Bryant...err, I mean between the Cavaliers and the Lakers. That was a great example of two teams who have one exceptional, outstanding player and a bunch of supporting players who may or may not show up. James and Bryant had superlative games, so much so that it often seemed the other 8 players were props more than anything. The Cavaliers came out ahead because too often the Lakers go to the Kobe offense and James had a slightly better game.

That won't happen in Portland. Admittedly no player on the Blazers approaches James for sheer skill, at least as an individual. Few teams have any one player who does. But Portland somehow is better than the sum of its parts. If you put any given Blazer outside of Brandon Roy on any below average or average team in the league he will not change them into a competitive team single-handedly. James does that for the Cavaliers.

However, each Blazer knows his role and fills it to perfection. Joel Przybilla provides defense and rebounding but does not look to score except on offensive put-backs. Martell Webster provides defense and long-range shooting. Steve Blake keeps the turnovers down and provides timely shooting. Travis Outlaw provides massive infusions of energy, tough on the ball defense, and clutch scoring. Sergio Rodriguez provides a spark off the bench one game and hardly plays the next. Everyone accepts their role and does not complain about it.

If another team wanted to trade for any of these guys straight up I suspect Portland would get very little in return. Well, maybe they would get something for Outlaw...he is making enough of a name for himself that sometimes he isn't even called "Charles" by the TNT guys now. They actually know his name...but no All-Stars or prime-time players would be offered. Yet it would take such a player to contribute as much to this Blazer team as would be taken away. They are the epitome of a team...taken separately, outside of 2 or at most 3 players there is seemingly not much. But they fit together so well, play together so well, and work so hard to not let down their teammates that they turned their season into something special.

With that said, Cleveland does have a couple of things working in their favor. Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao are the type of players that give Portland fits. Neither is an elite player...in fact, I would be surprised if either was ever in a future All Star game. But they are energetic players that can score inside who are solid rebounders. Portland tends to give up big games to these type players. I would not be surprised to see one or the other of them end up with 15 - 20 points and a dozen rebounds...maybe even both of them. If they do that and Daniel Gibson has one of his better games the Cavaliers will sneak out with the win.

The more likely scenario has James having an "off night", at least by his standards, as a let-down after the big confrontation with Bryant. He will still be in the 25+ point range I would suspect but it will take him too many shots to get there. Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Gibson are the types of players Portland typically harasses into poor shooting nights. Cleveland will end up shooting less than 44% for the game and Portland should win fairly handily, again in the 10+ point range.

This might be a tad optimistic with the decent road record the Cavaliers have compiled at 11-12 but this game fits well into Portland's strengths so I am sticking with it. They are brimming with confidence after the huge comeback against the Hawks. It is also an important game. Right now Portland is 26-18 with 38 games remaining. They are 1/2 game behind the Jazz and tied with the Nuggets for the Division lead and it will probably take winning the division to get into the playoffs. That will be tough to do. A quick glance at their remaining schedule is pretty revealing.

They have 4 tilts with the Lakers, 3 with the Suns, 2 each with the Rockets, Mavericks, and Warriors, and another game with the Spurs, not to mention road games with the Pistons and Cavaliers and another game with Boston. Every one of those is a tough game. Winning half of those would be very impressive...and unlikely. I would not be shocked if they won 6 or fewer of those games. I actually see them going 19-19 the rest of the way which would give them 45 wins on the season. That would be a huge improvement over last year and a very successful season, though it would probably leave them out of the playoffs. Even to achieve that will be tough.

They have winnable home games against the Cavaliers, Knicks, Nuggets and Bulls...let's say they stumble once, probably against the Nuggets. Then they go on the road for 4 with the Pistons, Pacers, Rockets and Mavericks. 1-3 is very possible there. Then take a look at this stretch of games to close out the season: They visit the Lakers and Rockets, come home to play the Spurs and Lakers, go to Sacramento, home for Dallas and Memphis, and then end the year on the road in Phoenix. That is a tough stretch where they could conceivably end the year losing 7 of 8. There are 2 stretches where it is not inconceivable they will be 2-9. For them to finish .500 from here on out they are going to need to win every game they "should" win and a few that are toss-ups or probable losing efforts.

Then again, this team has surprised me all year. I did not see them winning thrice against the Jazz or beating Utah in Denver so perhaps they will exceed my expectations, split the very tough games mentioned above, win every game they "should" against the teams like Seattle, Minnesota, Memphis, the Clippers and so forth, go 26-12 down the stretch and thunder into the playoffs with a nigh unbelievable 52-30 record. I would love to see that happen and be there cheering all the way. Actually, even if they do a little more poorly than the expected 19-19 we will be right there cheering all the way as this team has already exceeded most people's expectations.

The team is headed the right direction. There are solid character guys playing their assigned roles uncomplainingly and have identified their strengths and weaknesses which will be addressed next year with the arrival of this year's draft pick...So they should win Wednesday and we will see what happens from there.

Portland 94, Hawks 93

I admit it. I was wrong. I figured Portland would win this game easily by 10+ points. This one should be a blow-out, a laugher. It almost was...just in the other direction.

Portland started out all right with LaMarcus "LA" Aldridge scoring 4 quick points and Joel Przybilla adding a pair of awkward-looking free throws for a 6-2 lead. But after scoring 6 points in 3 minutes they could manage just 9 for the next 13. It was a team effort with turnovers, missed shots...most of them open looks from favorite positions...and missed free throws. Meanwhile, the defense was porous, allowing layins, alley-oops, uncontested drives, and leaving guys alone under the basket for a variety of dunks by the Hawks. When most of your shots are layups or dunks you are going to make a lot of them. Success breeds success. Suddenly an easy game looked even easier...just for the opposite team. The Hawks built a substantial 29-19 lead after one quarter.

Of course, the Blazer faithful were not worried. We were watching our guys take the shots we know they make high percentages on and our vaunted bench was going to make everything all right. It certainly looked that way early as the first 4 Portland possessions resulted in 2 dunks by Travis Outlaw, a short jumper by Channing Frye and a wide open three from James Jones to make it just 34-28 with 9:36 left in the quarter. Coldness, thy name is the Blazers offense. Over 4 minutes later when Brandon "The Natural" Roy dropped in free throws Atlanta was up a dozen at 42-28.

As a casual Hawks fan who wishes them well when they are playing any team not name the Blazers, I wish I could report this was their phenomenally talented young players were making spectacular shots against tough defense, holding out promise for their future. In reality they were making layin after layin. Well, layins when they were not throwing down thunderous dunks. On the bright side, no Blazers were "posterized". On the dark side, that is because the Hawks shots were so open there was no Blazer in the picture frame. It was pretty brutal.

At the other end, the Blazers shots WERE now being contested. The Hawks were extending their defense and shot after shot taken by the Blazers was against the shot clock or with a hand in their face. The combination of outstanding Hawks defense and pathetic Portland defense was becoming lethal. They built an 18 point lead before Roy closed the half with a spectacular drive and free throw after the foul. The half time score was 52-37 and it looked ugly.

Going back to the Houston game, the Blazers had now gone 4 consecutive quarters where 19 points was their BEST score for a quarter. Not good. Furthermore, Aldridge had a total of 5 shots. He had shown early on he could score almost at will as Atlanta had nobody who was even troubling his shot. Yet after his first couple scores he got just 3 shots for the half. Roy was a game-time decision to play due to the flue, the Hawks were playing great defense, and Portland was not finding ways to score. It looked bad. Still, I commented to my wife, "They can still win this."

It did not look like it at the start of the third. Aldridge turned the ball over and missed his first shot, though his second was good and Roy hit a layin, but Atlanta was expanding their lead. They also were doing a great job. When Roy started his pick and roll Atlanta was doubling Roy and forcing him out 30 feet from the basket. Portland was not rotating the ball and their stagnant offense was not making the Hawks pay for having two defenders so far from the basket. As late as 1:02 of the third quarter Atlanta had a 15 point lead at 73-58. On the bright side, that meant Portland had finally broken the 20 point barrier for a quarter. On the dark side, they still could not stop Atlanta. But Outlaw drained a three, they picked off a Joe Johnson pass and Frye hit a tough shot with just a couple seconds left on the clock for a quick 5-0 run to get them within 10 after three. It was the first quarter they have won in a while and a marked turnaround from their normal third quarter woes.

The start of the 4th quarter saw something that drew a lot of distaste from the Portland crowd. Williams...I believe it was Marvin, though it might have been Shelden...got behind the Blazers defense and was on his way for the break-away dunk. No big deal, by this point it felt like Portland had given up 10 or 15 dunks. But for whatever reason James Jones made a dirty play. He grabbed his shoulders from behind and essentially horse-collared him to the ground. It was properly called a Flagrant 2 (I believe that is the more serious one), but it also did a couple things.

First, it completely killed the crowd. That is the sort of play we might have expected in the Rasheed Wallace-Damon Stoudemire-Darius Miles type of days. It is not the sort of thing we expect from this team. It is a young team that plays the game right...hard but clean. No need for the Detroit Pistons type play of the late 90s, none of the Rick Mahorn/Dennis Rodman/Shaquille O Neal type nonsense. Blazers fans simply do not like dirty play or cheap shots and this was exactly that. And Jones knew it instantly.

A couple other season ticket holders sitting behind me even had a short discussion about how much of a rally killer it was. Prior to that play the Blazers fans were into the game. That 10 point deficit felt like a lead. The 4th quarter is ours, we knew the game was in hand. After that play people were shifting in their seats and one family even left.

I suspect we will not see anything like that from Jones again. Fortunately, Williams was not hurt. And though Atlanta did not score on the possession after the free throws it felt like far more than a 2 point swing. It felt like they were down 15 or 16 points again. The crowd was completely taken out of the game.

And so it went. After 2-1/2 minutes of the quarter Atlanta held a 14 point lead. It was at this point that McMillan made a great coaching move. Instead of setting picks for Roy, which Atlanta clearly had the number of, he started just running clear-outs for Roy. The double teams disappeared and the offense exploded. Outlaw then changed the game. He hit back to back threes with a hand in his face from the left side foul line extended. The second one pulled Portland within 8.

As late as the 5 minute mark Atlanta was maintaining an 11 points lead. Sure, Portland was scoring but Atlanta was too...when they could hold on to the ball. Outlaw hit a jumper...Atlanta turned it over. Aldridge scored...Atlanta got an alley-oop throw down. Jones hit a jumper and wonder of wonders, Johnson missed a shot. Roy got a three point play and after the timeout hit the free throw to pull Portland within 4. Atlanta got another alley-oop dunk. See a pattern here? Where was the Blazer interior defense?

After an Aldridge bucket to pull Portland within 4 again Roy somehow, someway blocked a shot. It was an impossible block and when he scored after a clear out it was a 2 point game. He then forced Johnson into an air ball after Johnson spent almost the entire shot clock trying to break him down. Roy drove and scored again and for the first time since zero apiece the game was tied.

For the first time this season, I saw Portland force a team to take a timeout when they could not get the ball inbounds. After the reset, they got it in to Johnson.

He then forced Johnson into an air ball with 9 seconds left. Once more Portland went to the Roy isolation at the top of the key. Once more he broke down his defender. This time he drew the foul and with 2 seconds went to the line.

And missed the first one. Amazing. Here is one of the most clutch guys the Blazers have ever had, certainly the most clutch guy since Terry Porter, and he missed. But the second was good and all the Hawks could manage was a wild buzzer-beating three attempt that never had a chance and they pulled out the improbable 1 point win.

Some amazing things happened in this game. To start with, after shooting 1-10 on threes in the first half Portland went 4-6 from downtown in the second half. With just about 38% shooting for about 2-1/2 quarters they ended up shooting 50% for the game. Atlanta shot 52.6% for the game, but just 2-11 from the three point line. Yet despite the ease with which they got inside most of the game, crunch time became a heave fest from the extra distance, which combined with a bevy of turnovers allowed Portland to make up 11 points in 5 minutes.

When Portland was struggling to score McMillan made an interesting substitution. Aldridge sat from the 2:27 mark of the 3rd quarter while Frye played until the 5:01 mark of the 4th. Now, Frye was playing very well (14 points on 6-8, 6 rebounds) but so was Aldridge (16 points on 7-11, 8 boards...and 3 of his misses were first period). Of the two, Aldridge is the better interior defender, and area where Portland was struggling. Aldridge ended up playing only a shade under thirty minutes for the game which I found curious. Obviously, however, McMillan pulled the right strings.

Overall it was an entertaining game and speaks well of this Portland team. Behind by double digits for the better part of all 4 quarters they somehow found a way to get key stops, adapt their offense and find ways to score just enough points to pull out a game they easily could have lost. Atlanta played great for 43 minutes. Both teams left it all on the floor and at the end of the day the better team won...but just barely. This should be an exciting rivalry for the next few years as bot teams have numerous young, promising players who can develop into something special. Unfortunately for Hawks fans, this collapse has the feeling of having the same impact the Philadelphia game did on Portland where it might send them into a tailspin. Meanwhile, Portland should be fired up for the upcoming Cavaliers game and that can only be a good thing.

Houston 89, Portland 79

Going into the game it looked bad for Portland. In fact, in my preview I said, "With that said, tired legs make it hard to go after the rebounds aggressively and Houston is pretty solid on the boards. Look for a poor shooting night from Portland to be compounded by rebounding woes and Houston will sneak out a road win."

I concluded it with the comment that, "I would not be surprised to see the Blazers show their heart and win this but I expect a Rockets victory, probably in the 8 - 12 point range."

As they did in the New Orleans game Portland started out strong. Joel Przybilla got the crowd involved with his block on a Chuck Hayes dunk attempt. Roy was scoring seemingly at will and then the other Blazers got involved. Yao Ming got off to a rough start with o-3 shooting and 3 turnovers. Houston's leading scorer after the first quarter had exactly 3 points...Ming on 3-4 from the line. However, they had 8 people scoring so the 23-16 Portland lead was nowhere near as large as it could have been.

Former Blazer Bonzi Wells led a quick 7-0 run to pull Houston into a tie and then one of the best surprises for the Blazers this year, Travis Outlaw, stepped up with a quick 4 spot of his own. Tracy McGrady and LaMarcus Aldridge put on a show with 8 points apiece. With Roy (9 points), Aldridge and Outlaw all scoring Portland managed to regain the lead and led 50-42 at the half.

All year the third quarter has belonged to the opponents. A good 3rd for Portland is typically where they only have a 4 or 5 point deficit which they then erase in the fourth. This night the 3rd would be another problem. They started with 4 missed shots and 4 turnovers, got 1 of 2 free throws from Martell Webster, then added another 3 missed shots and a turnover before Roy went 1-2 from the line. While they were scoring just 2 point in the first 6 minutes and change of the 3rd Houston was getting balanced contributions and scored 14 to take a 56-52 lead. As they have done so many times As they have done so often this year the Blazers responded with a quick 6-2 run and despite scoring just 12 points in the third quarter they were tied at 62 after three.

At that point it seemed like a game the Blazers should win. They have owned the 4th quarter all year, especially at home. Houston is a very strong team, one of the teams that I believe has underperformed to this point in the season, in large part due to injury, but home games are the ones you need to win.

And it looked like Portland would. The teams traded baskets and leads. The Rockets extended to a 3 point lead at the 7:47 mark and from there the Blazers were pulling within 1 instead of taking the lead. But we have seen that before. Late in the quarter Roy and Outlaw take over. The defense clamps down, all the rebounds that they could not corral earlier in the game now fall in Blazer hands, and different guys step up every game. However, after Aldridge brought the Blazers within 1 at 74-73 the Blazers saw McGrady drain a 3, Luis Scola scored, and Carl Landry complete a 3 point play while Jack turned the ball over, Aldridge and Outlaw missed shots, and suddenly the deficit was 8 with just 2:49 remaining.

Houston is a good team and they did what they needed to close out the game. It was a game that with 5 minutes to go could have been won by either team. Most of the season this is a game Portland would have won but lately they have not been finishing games, starting with their double overtime loss in Toronto. But there are other factors that came into play in this game.

Portland shot a paltry 35.7% for the game. Oddly, they shot better from 3-point range (41.7%) than they did overall. You can get away with poor shooting if you are forcing the opponent to shoot poorly, winning the rebound battle, and not turning the ball over. Houston shot 40%, out rebounded Portland 48-30, and only had 4 more turnovers than Portland. So those extra rebounds made the difference.

18 extra rebounds and 4 extra turnovers essentially equals a 14 possession advantage. Both Portland and Houston made 5 threes and 24 free throws. Houston took 4 more 2 point field goals than Portland. In other words, that 6% shooting percentage difference resulted in 5 extra made field goals and gave them their 10 point margin.

Earlier this season Charles Barkley, in his job as ESPN analyst, was criticized by many Blazer fans for asserting that Portland would not make the playoffs because they cannot get easy baskets. This game was an example of his prediction coming true. Just as the Hornets did, the Rockets figured out how to keep Roy out of the lane and keep him from making layins or dishing for easy baskets. This time Outlaw did not take over and pick up the slack. Meanwhile the Rockets got balanced scoring from their entire team...8 players scored at least 8 points each, and none more than 15...and deservedly won the game.


From the pre-season I have been enthused about this Blazer team. Sure, the loss of their #1 pick was going to hurt but this is a team with talent. Roy and Aldridge make a solid 1-2 punch, I expected 12-15 points from Martell Webster and Jarrett Jack in support, and Joel Przybilla fills the bill of defense and rebounding without demanding the ball. However, even with that enthusiasm I pegged them for maybe a 42-44 win team. This game is illustrative of why I still think that is about the right number.

I expect a lot of things will be said about "fatigue" and "the hardest game of a road trip is the first one home" but the fact remains the Blazers put themselves in a position to win and closed out with 12 and 17 points. Good teams might let fatigue affect things like that...great teams don't. Somehow I cannot see the Michael Jordan led Bulls teams of the early 90s losing a game like this. That is the difference between this Blazer team winning 50 and winning the low to mid 40s total they will achieve. They let winnable games against good teams get away.

That is not to take anything away from the Rockets. They are a very good team that will end with a better record than the Blazers in no small part because in games like this where their stars play sub-par games (Ming had 11 points on 2-8 shooting, 10 rebounds, but 4 turnovers and McGrady shot just 5-14 and had another 5 turnovers) their role players step up and take away games.

Defense and rebounding win a lot of games. Both teams played some very good defense but only one team got the rebounds and that was the difference.

Preview 23-19 Houston at 25-17 Portland

At the beginning of the year some people were talking Title aspirations for Houston. Then they got struck with a multitude of injuries including to McGrady and Ming. Additionally, Steve Francis is out "indefinitely" and very few players have even made it to 30 games this year. As their record reached depths no Rocket fan anticipated there was talk in some quarters that the McGrady-Ming experiment had failed. Criticisms were leveled at Adelman for his coaching.

From where I sit, those criticisms make little sense. Adelman was a tremendous coach in Portland and his departure hurt the team as much as the departure of some of their more talented players. He did a phenomenal job in Sacramento and they made a huge mistake in letting him go. And he is doing another excellent job in Houston, guiding a variety of line-ups to where they are...in position to make a run at the playoffs in the second half of the season assuming they can get healthy.

McGrady has been playing very well off the bench the last few games as he recovers from yet another injury. Houston is hot, having won their last three. They are also catching Portland at the right time. Portland's home court advantage is all but negated by the road trip hangover. Typically teams coming back from long road trips struggle in their first game back. Additionally, Portland will be on short rest, just one day, which is unusual.

Portland will be coming back home from a long road trip, still tired, and perhaps too buoyed by their successes on the road. It will be interesting to see if they come out with fire in their eyes or if they are in coasting mode. On the one hand they have had numerous examples of great leadership. Roy in particular is known for telling his teammates what is expected of them. The team has become accustomed to winning. They make a point of defending the home court. They go out of their way to engage the fans.

On the other hand, they are coming off a loss where the last three quarters saw them badly outplayed by the Hornets, it gave them a losing record for the road trip, and after the game Barrett even talked about their level of exhaustion.

In other words, Houston is the odds on favorite to win this game, even though it is in Portland. In different circumstances I would give Portland the edge. Though Ming does a great job of shutting down the paint, that impacts Portland far less than it does most teams due to their habit of bombing away from mid and long range. The Blazers are quite content to pull up for 15 footers. In fact, this might be a good game for Roy to get off a few of those foul-line extended elbow jumpers he took so often last year but that have fallen by the wayside this year. Both Aldridge and Frye are capable of hitting the top of the key 18 foot jump shot to pull out their defenders a bit and of course Jones, Webster and Blake can all strike from anywhere on the court.

With that said, tired legs make it hard to go after the rebounds aggressively and Houston is pretty solid on the boards. Look for a poor shooting night from Portland to be compounded by rebounding woes and Houston will sneak out a road win.

Portland wins if they shoot 48% or better and manage to stay within about 4 or 5 rebounds of Houston. This is yet another gut-check game for Portland. Will they rise up and defend their home court? Or will they start sliding back towards their probably eventual end at about .500 for the season? Despite their excellent start it would not be hugely surprising to see the Blazers go something like 20-20 the rest of the way...which would still leave them 45-37, a nice 13 game jump from last year. If they are an 8 games over .500 team, which seems not too far off given their strengths and weaknesses, we can expect to start seeing them drop a few games they were winning earlier.

In the classic tradition of "Let's hedge our bets"...if the Blazers are the 50-32 or better team I did not expect but that their 25-16 record after 41 games represents then this is a game they need to win despite the obstacles. I would not be surprised to see the Blazers show their heart and win this but I expect a Rockets victory, probably in the 8 - 12 point range.

The Pack Factor

It would be interesting to see how many Blazer fans remember Robert Pack. Signed as an undrafted free agent, he played in 72 games back in 91-92. You might remember that season for being the Blazers and Bulls in the finals where Jordan showed how vast the gap between the best player in the league that year and the second best player...Clyde Drexler...was. 4 games to 2 was the result. I do not know if anyone could have denied Chicago that year. The 4-2 final game score did not fully represent just how dominant Chicago was in that series.

Be that as it may, on a team led by Drexler and Porter with Buck Williams providing the rebounding, Kersey being the "energy guy", Uncle Cliffy coming off the bench, how important could an undrafted free agent pick-up be?

Pack played about 12 minutes a game, or a quarter of the time, backing up both Porter and Drexler. He averaged a respectable 4.6 points, 1.3 rebounds, a little better than half a steal and every 4 games he gave away the ball 5 times. These are hardly game-changing numbers. Portland won by an average of 5 points that season, slightly more than his scoring average. They had 6 guys scoring in double figures. In any given game you might see Kersey, Robinson, Duckworth or even Williams add 20 to the Drexler and Porter scoring explosion. But Pack was kind of like Wayne Cooper on that team...he had a specific role and filled it well.

Those 12 minutes he gave them were 12 minutes where yes, there was a drop-off on the offensive end...but he gave them rugged defense, scored often enough that you could not ignore him, and he gave Drexler and Porter valuable rest so they could come back rested and the point spread between the teams would be fairly close to where it was when they went to the bench.

It was defensively where Pack was the bigger help. He could shut down explosive guards, provided some tough on the ball defense and could defend either the smaller, quicker point guards or the larger shooting guards. He provided the Blazers a spark virtually every night where he could change the flow of the game.

But the impact he had was not so huge that Portland felt they needed to retain his services for 92-93. Over the next 13 years he would play for 9 different teams, though two of them...Denver and New Jersey...were two times each. He showed how good he could have been in a shortened season in Washington when his 35 minutes per game were enough for him to score 18, pick off 2 steals a game, and rack up almost 8 assists. He had the talent to be a productive point guard and had 8 or more assists per game three times in his career.

In other words, despite being undrafted he was a player who could provide a team with a lot of help. It was unexpected help. His problems were primarily health as only 3 times in his career did he play as many as 70 games and most were less than half that.

Players like Pack are often the difference between a 35 win team and a 50 win team. Their impact is not necessarily in their statistics but rather the "intangibles". Pack's talent gave Drexler and Porter some tough competition in practice. His play on the court helped the team in subtle ways far more often than spectacular. He accepted his role and played it to the best of his ability.

When a team is able to find and develop talented role players, guys who could score 15 - 20 points or pull down 10 rebounds if they were playing full time, convince that player to accept limited minutes, and that player fits into the team that team then experiences a strong season.

At the beginning of this year there was not a lot expected of the Blazers. Every week someone writes about how good this team would have been if Oden were playing. Maybe. To be sure, if his college career is any indication then he would provide the low-post offense and rebounding that the Blazers sorely need this year. Yet if he played there is an open question if some of the Blazers other talents could have developed. Many writers have talked about what no Oden has done for Roy and Aldridge. I would argue it has also helped the current crop of Blazer "Pack" type players.

Take fifth year player James Jones for example. Put this sharp-shooter on Golden State, give him 35 minutes a game and you probably have an 18-20 point scorer. He can run the floor, shoot the lights out, and tends to make other players better as evidenced by his +10.27 efficiency rating. He has the talent to start at small forward. Yet he has simply played his role. He spells Webster, takes his open shots, scraps on defense, and gives the starters someone tough to practice against. If he stays with Portland he will probably never be an All-Star...but the team is vastly improved by his presence.

It is not just his on the floor talent, either. Early in the win streak the Blazers ran off he was referenced by multiple Blazers as being a big part of instilling the "we are a team" spirit that has led them to their big season. Jones does not cry about playing time, does not demand trades, talk about his own needs...he is a team guy. Much like Robert Pack, he is a guy whose statistics do not come close to showing his true value to the team.

And that is one reason the Blazers are exceeding all expectations this year. They have multiple players of this nature. Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye, and Jarrett Jack are guys who could start for a lot of teams or at the least provide more minutes and statistical contributions. For the present, however, they are content to play their assigned roles...talented back-ups on a team reaching heights nobody expected. I doubt any of them modeled their career on one unheralded season by a relatively anonymous player from 15 years ago...but they certainly are following his spirit and that is the Pack Factor that is a key difference between an expected Blazer record of probably about 18-26 and their actual record.

Portland 81, New Orleans 96

Early in the game Portland was toasting New Orleans. Blake and Aldridge were hitting everything in sight, they were about even on the boards, and were protecting the ball. Meanwhile, New Orleans was struggling to score. West had 16 first quarter points...and New Orleans totaled 20. Outside of West they were as cold as could be.



But then the second unit came on. Roy missed a shot, Jack missed, Outlaw had about 4 of those drive-step back jumpers he loves so much that were wide open but missed. Jones missed a corner trey. Rodriguez missed a wide open three. It was a bad, bad sign. New Orleans was not playing defense but they did not need to because Portland was not even attempting to go inside and their shots were not falling. Meanwhile, noted studs Pargo and Bowen were eclipsing their prior season totals (it seemed like). Pargo had 15 second quarter points and Bowen another 6. Together they tallied 21 of 28 points.

This is the type of performance we have come to expect from the PORTLAND bench. When all but one starter struggle, typically Outlaw or Jones or Jack will step up with a big game. This time, instead the bench was missing everything but home and the starters started to get infected. They were only able to tally 18 points for the second quarter; 9 of those came on Blake 3s sandwiching a Jones 3 on 3 consecutive possessions. Outside of that stretch they had only a 9 point quarter. They had a 48-44 deficit at the half, nothing they cannot overcome.



But there were some very, very bad signs. First off, they were missing relatively easy, makeable shots. Not to cast aspersions on the defense of the Hornets because they are a very solid defensive team, but the poor shooting in the first half was not because of that defense. Portland was getting open looks from the right people in the right places. The shots just weren't falling. When your open shots are not falling and you are facing a team which can put the clamps on when they need to as the Hornets can, you are asking for trouble. Second, Roy seemed...well, disinterested. He is not a demonstrative or "fast" player but he usually is involved in the game. This time he felt like he was going through the motions. Very unusual for him. Third, the Blazers had kept Paul and Chandler very much in check (though West had wrecked them in the first quarter) but were giving up huge nights to second line players while getting virtually nothing from their own.



The third quarter has been a nemesis all year. This game would be no different. They had open shots but could not convert. They got free throws and missed. At times it looked like a contractors convention the way bricks were being laid. After a poor 18 point 2nd quarter, they bounced back with 15 in the third. New Orleans, fortunately, also struggled to score, though their 22 was still a 7 spot better than the suddenly punchless Blazers and the spread was 11 after 3.



The 4th quarter is one the Blazers have just owned for weeks now. And after back to back possessions where Outlaw fed Aldridge for easy scores it looked like this would be more of the same. Portland pulled within 77-72 with 5:29 left and had the ball in to Aldridge. His shot was blocked, though, and a quick 10-2 New Orleans run all but ended the game.



They had their chances. But New Orleans, who appeared relatively indifferent defensively for most of the game, clamped down on Roy when the Blazers got close, forcing tough shots late in the possession against the clock, keeping the ball away from Roy, and making other guys beat them. Most of the year, other guys have stepped up. This time they missed their shots, some of which were easy and some of which were against some stiff defense. Meanwhile, the Hornets had 3 dynamic scorers in Paul, Stojakovich and Pargo. Pargo finished with 24.



Going in I was hoping for the upset but something just did not feel right. Portland has seen the Hornets 4 times now and split with them, each team taking 2 on their home floor. The teams are fairly evenly matched. Portland's defense is typically very effective at slowing Stojakovich (he scored 6 of his 12 in the last couple minutes when the outcome was basically decided) and often harass Paul into tough shooting nights. But they can't keep Chandler and West off the boards (New Orleans won the rebound battle 41-25) and West just has a field day against the Blazers it seems like every time. He only ended with 22...but that is largely because he was not needed in this game after the huge first quarter. Meanwhile, Portland is well set up to score against the Hornets as Jones, Aldridge, and Outlaw all have marked advantages over their respective defenders and the floor really opens up when the Hornets concentrate so heavily on Roy. The deciding factor each time has seemed to be the home floor.



That is quite disappointing as New Orleans has a very poor crowd. The games are poorly attended (11,006 people for a team that is 29-12, a game ahead of Dallas and a game and a half ahead of San Antonio. They are, record wise, the best team in the most talented division in basketball...and can get only half capacity of sit-on-their hands fans. That is some pretty poor support. And sure, many people will offer the "New Orleans is devastated" party line...but at some point you have to get past that. Check out Saints attendance figures, folks. The fact is, New Orleans is just not a basketball town, at least at this point in their history. There is a reason the Jazz moved, and it wasn't because they perceived of Utah as a jazzier place...



As an aside, this was an unusually poorly officiated game. You will always see the home team and the more aggressive team get some favorable calls. When they home team IS the more aggressive team, that advantage becomes even more pronounced. I do not object to that. There was a time when Portland was known as "Rip-off City" for some of the questionable officiating that seemed to benefit the Blazers far more than the opposition. And the officiating did not determine the outcome. Portland had their chances and simply got outplayed by a team that, at least on this night, was the better team. But some of the calls were pretty brutal.



For example, on one play Jarrett Jack was on the baseline and a ball caromed in his direction. Chandler jumped out following the ball into a statue-like Jack. Chandler inadvertently landed an elbow to the head. Unlike some plays I have seen Chandler make, this one did not seem dirty to me, just one of those things that happens when people go after a ball. Either way, the contact was initiated by Chandler leaping out. Jack not only got the elbow to the dome, he got called for a loose ball foul. I spent some time thinking about that one, as in how Jack fouled him. Apparently standing in the path of someone jumping away from the basket is now a foul. Later, Aldridge had the inside position and Chandler barreled into him from outside. Again it was the Blazer who got called. Neither time was the Blazer airborne. Once he had inside position, once outside. Both times they got called for the loose-ball foul. Uh, okay.



Those were just two easy examples. There were several calls that had me scratching my head. But the point here is not to attack the officiating, it is something Portland can do to improve. They can make sure they become the aggressors which will gain them more calls. Instead of standing around letting the opponents go after the ball while they watch from court seats, they can crash the boards, make the other teams work for their rebounds, and make the refs notice there are two teams worthy of benefiting from whistles.

Be that as it may, the road trip was still a qualified success. The road is always a difficult place to win and at the beginning of the season if you heard they went 3-4 on this trip it would be a tremendous accomplishment. Even now I think 4-3 would have been hugely successful, and it is a sign of just how good the Blazers have gotten this quickly that it is in any way a minor disappointment to go 3-4 instead of 4-3. Winning on the road at a 43% clip is pretty impressive. The Blazers should be congratulated. They competed in every game, could have won the Toronto game, and even had a shot at this one with 5 minutes left. Well done.