Will anticipations of Blazer Championships deprive their fans of enjoying the journey?

"Better than the deed, better than the memory is the moment of anticipation."
Jaques the Bowler (Albert Brooks) while preparing for a date with Marge Simpson.


I am obviously highly interested in the results of the upcoming Blazer season in particular and more generally in the results of their next few years. As with most Blazer fans, I expect improvements this year and hope for a Championship or 3 in the next 6 - 8 years.

I will also admit to being perhaps a bit more optimistic than many Blazer fans but more realistic than another group. I believe a win total north of 50 and perhaps even winning a playoff series are not unrealistic goals even within the Western Conference, though winning it all this year seems a pretty sizable stretch.

But what if it doesn't happen, not just this year but ever? Perhaps Brandon Roy's heel issues limit his effectiveness, shorten his career and remove one of the bright stars from the Rose Garden. Or maybe Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and Jerryd Bayless fail to live up to expectations. Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster stop improving. An ill-advised trade moves LaMarcus Aldridge and disrupts the team chemistry.

Or maybe they just keep running into great teams. Last season's Celtics were assembled essentially instantaneously and have a few years left. The Jazz have assembled a talented, versatile roster. Kobe Bryant has been given a lot of help and is still a talent capable of winning entire series almost single-handed. See also James, LeBron. That is without even mentioning to this point the Spurs, Suns, Hornets, Magic, or....well, you see the point.

In short, there are a lot of ways the Blazers franchise total of NBA Championships won could remain at 1 even when the current crop of studs is retired, traded, departed as free agents or however this core group is dismantled .

But it shouldn't matter because between now and then they should create a number of great memories. Those should be reason enough to watch. And they are created game in and game out.

For example, last season there was a game where the Blazers were struggling, on the verge of being blown out in the first half. The opponents, I believe it was the Hawks, had the ball with mere moments remaining in the first half. They had a lay-up to push the lead even further out when Travis Outlaw came out of nowhere to make a spectacular block.

With the crowd on their feet still yelling, the Hawks (?) inbounded it for a dunk attempt which Outlaw launched right back into the seats.

Regardless of whether Portland won or lost that night, those moments stick out in my mind. And there were many more equally exciting plays. I can replay in my mind the Roy hand-switching lay-up reminiscent of Jordan versus the Lakers, any of dozens of Joel Przybilla blocks including several on dunk attempts, sky walking Outlaw dunks, Webster treys, Sergio Rodriguez passes, and more.

Too often sports fans get distracted by the goal of "winning it all" and forget to enjoy the journey. That can sap out a great deal of the fun of spectator sports. Take a team like the Oklahoma (Tropic) Thunder. They will be statistically be eliminated from playoff contention by approximately the third game of the season but their realistic playoff hopes will die a few games prior to that, maybe about the time they open training camp.

Yet with that said, failing to attend the games would rob Thunder fans of memories about some pretty spectacular games. With Kevin Durant aboard and cranking up shots basically any time he feels like it, they are likely to see a couple of 40+ point explosions. He is a freakish talent who should provide some spectacular entertainment even in losing causes.

At the other end of the spectrum would be teams like the Spurs who, if everything breaks right, could sneak back into the Finals and win another Ring. Whether they do or not, it is another year to watch the magnificence of Tim Duncan with his great footwork, court vision, and passing ability. It is another chance to see Tony Parker expand his game and make some great cuts into the lane.

You can find reasons to watch virtually every team in the League from game to game. They all provide entertainment as long as you recognize the journey is in many ways worth more than obtaining the goal.

Sure, I remember the excitement of Blazermania when the Big Redhead lifted the trophy over his head...31 years ago. But I also remember watching Billy Ray do his "Rock the Cradle" dunks for some pretty average Blazer teams as well, enjoyed the return of Maurice Lucas, saw Arvydas Sabonis, and so forth.

There was that fantastic triple overtime game with the Suns where Sabonis, Tom Chambers, and Rex Chapman hit unbelievable off-balance, heavily guarded threes to extend the game 5 more minutes. I remember that just as fondly as the Championship. Or the time Larry Legend and the Celtics came to Portland for his last game here and he ripped us for I think it was 51 points. The memories are great.

But so is the anticipation. This year I expect to see some incredible moves from the talented Blazer roster, to see some high-scoring explosions and great defensive plays, to see the team develop, win a lot of games, and perhaps even win a playoff series.

I like to think, however, that even if they just tread water at 41-41 I will still come away happy with having watched some fun basketball. If I leave with a smile on my face then they will have done their job.

Ultimately, maybe Jacques had it right. The promise of the next few seasons is so great that it seems impossible for any results to match them. Maybe if the Blazers exceed all (realistic) expectations, rip off 10 consecutive 60 win seasons and win5 championships in that time the memories and deeds will be better, but for now, as Blazer fans, lets just enjoy the anticipation.

R.I.P. Kevin Duckworth

Billy got us tickets to the Blazer game some how, some way, I still to this day cannot figure out how. We both grew up in homes where getting a quarter to buy a pack of baseball cards was a huge expenditure so tickets were never part of the equation. We exclusively saw the Blazers a few times a year when they were on free television. But for this game we had tickets.

So we climbed to the top of the old Memorial Coliseum. We sat right in front of the Organ player. We didn't care...we were in the building! And we got to see our favorite players. For me it was the hard-charging semi-manias Jerome Kersey. For Billy, and for thousands of other fans, it was Kevin "Duck" Duckworth.

Every time Duck touched the ball the place went nuts with Duck chants and Duck calls...calls using the whistles Duck hunters use to sound like a "real" duck with ruptured lungs. When he shot that one-handed mid-range jumper we knew it was going in. Sure, Duck had no inside game to speak of. He was a little bit slow-footed, not particularly tough inside, not a great rebounder, and not even particularly strong at interior defense. But we loved him and he worked for the Blazers.

His ability to hit that mid-range jumper would pull the shot-blocking monsters like Mark Eaton, Akeem Olajuwon, and David Robinson away from the basket which allowed the slashers like Clyde Drexler and Kersey to penetrate the lane for easy baskets. He fit the team perfectly.

Unfortunately, in 1989 he ran into someone who performed the same role but did it better. In the NBA Finals Duck was endlessly frustrated by Detroit Bad Boy Bill Laimbeer. To this day most Blazer fans blame the Blazer loss in those Finals on Duck which was unfair.

To be sure, Laimbeer did badly outplay him and not only neutralized Duck but dominated the center play. It was a turning point in Duckworth's career and he was never quite the same after that. He was a very sensitive man who took the sometimes harsh criticisms very much to heart.

Looking back it is clear Duck was the right player at the right time. A 2-time All-Star, without Duck the Blazers would probably not have made the finals against either the Pistons or the Bulls. Regardless of those, they would not have been the same team.

It was the engaging personality of Duckworth that made so many of us into fans. We loved the big man's smile and the way he played the game. His popularity rebounded and after his playing career ended he returned to do community relations work for the Blazers. It was a good choice as we still love him.

Unfortunately he passed away at just 44 years of age. Too young. He will be missed as a community relations guy but most of all, he will be missed as a direct link to the previous run the Blazers had when they were winning games with quality guys involved in the community like Buck Williams, Terry Porter, and yes...the man himself, Kevin Duckworth.

Rest in peace, big man. Thanks for all the memories. We love you.

Blazers catch one break too many:Is the Dynasty over before it begins?

In previous discussions I have often mentioned the one thing that will prevent the Blazers from a long run with a lot of success would be injuries. Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Joel Przybilla, and Martell Webster are 5 players expected to make significant contributions for years to come who have one thing in common; they all have injury histories.

Oden has the well documented wrist and knee injuries. Roy suffered a variety of injuries the last 2 years that led to double digit games lost which is unfortunately a trend that was an extension of his College career. Aldridge suffers from plantar fasciitis which never goes away. Webster has an irregular heartbeat. Przybilla finds a different way to do it every time.

So when it was announced that Roy underwent surgery on...drum roll please...his KNEE, of all things, the hearts of Blazer fans were in their throats. No matter how many protestations that, "He had the same surgery on his other knee in college and only missed 3-1/2 weeks" come out of the official Blazer spokesmen, the Blazer fans hear, "We lost Oden to microfracture surgery last year, then Gilbert Arenas had the same thing as Roy and it took him out for a year. There is NO POSSIBLE GOOD OUTCOME!"

Relax, Blazer fan. There are a lot of good outcomes. Even in the unlikely event that Roy misses significant time this season, Portland is still in great shape. They have Rudy Fernandez and perhaps Jerryd Bayless ready to provide meaningful minutes at the Shooting Guard if needed. They have Sergio Rodriguez, Travis Outlaw, and Webster showing tremendous progress. And they have a revitalized Oden.

How revitalized is Oden? He inspired this exchange after he worked out with Channing Frye.

Reporter: "Did Oden look like he was favoring his knee?"
Frye: "No, he favors dunking on your head."

But back to my point. The possible good outcome even if preliminary reports that the arthroscopic surgery was successful are wrong is simple. Last year provides an excellent example.

When Aldridge missed a few games Roy called the team together and told them how they needed to respond in order to continue the success they had experienced. And they did. Frye stepped up. Webster stepped up. An extra rebound here, a steal there, a couple extra points and the entire team was picked up. Furthermore, it let the players figure out they could play well in his absence. The same thing held true when Roy missed a few games. They continued to win.

Will the same thing hold true for long stretches? Obviously not. A person would have to be a fool to believe the Blazers are as good without Roy as they are with him. But losing him for a few games is not the disaster some people would have you believe. Failing to resolve this now before it becomes serious as it did for Agent Zero would be disastrous. Losing him for a few games would give Portland a chance to see exactly what they have in Fernandez and to give Bayless more and more meaningful minutes than he will most likely see otherwise. In a word...experience. Late in the year and more specifically in the next couple of years, that would be a great side-effect of a bad circumstance.

So yes, it is worth being nervous that Roy had his knee scoped. But there is no need for the flood of, "The Blazers are snake-bit" or panic responses that are sometimes seen. He will be fine and so will the Blazers.

Will early season schedule brutalities derail the Blazers playoff hopes?

The 2007-08 season saw the Blazers lose #1 draft pick Greg Oden before a single game was played, lose All-Star Brandon Roy for multiple games, lose future All-Star LaMarcus Alrdidge for long stretches, have the 2nd toughest Strength of Schedule and one of the 3 youngest teams of all time. This did not stop them from finishing the season with a .500 record at 41-41.

The optimism from that unexpectedly successful season was only exacerbated when GM Kevin Pritchard signed Spanish sensation Rudy Fernandez, Pritch-slapped fellow GMs on draft day to unload oft-maligned (unfairly, by the way) Guard Jarrett Jack, food tube Josh "McBob" McRoberts and a draft pick for bench polisher Ike Diogu and Guard Jerry Bayless. With Oden, Fernandez and Bayless coming in many observers argue Portland is bringing aboard 3 of the top 5 players from this year's draft, somehow ignoring the fact only one of them was drafted this year. The point remains, a team that went .500 last year seriously upgraded its talent base even aside from the natural progression of young players such as sharpshooter Martell Webster and prime time shot-maker Travis Outlaw. The only other loss of note was oft-injured but talented James Jones whose loss is anticipated to be offset by the development of Webster and Outlaw.

Predictions have ranged from improvement to about 45 wins all the way to a rather unreasonable claim on the Championship this year. Most predictions have settled more in the middle with a low playoff seed and 1st or 2nd round exit. That does not sound unreasonable.

At least, it didn't before the 2008-2009 NBA schedule was released.


October

Tue 28 @ LA Lakers 7:30pm
Fri 31 vs San Antonio 7:30pm
November
Sat 01 @ Phoenix 7:00pm
Wed 05 @ Utah 6:00pm
Thu 06 vs Houston 7:30pm
Sat 08 vs Minnesota 7:00pm
Mon 10 @ Orlando 4:00pm
Wed 12 @ Miami 4:30pm
Fri 14 @ New Orleans 5:00pm
Sat 15 @ Minnesota 5:00pm
Tue 18 @ Golden State

Opening night is in LA against the hated Lakers. Last year the Blazers somehow managed to split the 4 game series with them although that is somewhat misleading as at no point was either team at full strength when they met. Furthermore, this year's Blazer squad is far stronger while the Lakers more or less stood pat with a team that was good enough to win the toughest Conference in history. With continued development by some of their young players and a return to health of Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum, they figure to be even better than last year.

Portland's first game is against those Lakers in L.A. The Lakers figure to come in with a chip on their shoulder after their humiliation in Game 6 and knowing the nation is watching. That makes it a statement game for both teams. Look for LA to make the bigger statement with a comfortable win.

Next up is a home game against San Antonio. The Spurs will also be rolling in with something to prove as whispers about them being too old, having lost too many steps and so forth. If Portland wants to be a playoff team this is the type of game they will need to win as they did last year. But will they? It would not necessarily be an upset to see San Antonio pull this one off. Then Portland would be looking at 0-2 with a horrific stretch ahead.

The next night is a back to back on the road against Phoenix, a team that absolutely destroyed Portland last year. To be sure, Phoenix has completely changed complexion, philosophy, and their coach but the back to back, the (probable) tough start to the season, and that mental domination combine to make this a very tough game.

After that they travel to Utah for a road game against a team that won 50+ games last year and lost I believe 3 games at home. Ouch. This is followed by another back to back as they fly home to face 50+ game winner Houston, a team that got vastly better in the off season. That is no gimme.

Finally Portland catches a break with a home game against Minnesota. Even in Minnesota Portland SHOULD win that but to get 6 games in before finding a game you pencil in for a near-certain W is a pretty tough start.

On the bright side, I can make arguments why Portland COULD win every game. Then again, only the Minnesota game would be hugely disappointing to lose. If Portland started out 3-3 it would mean they pretty much held serve with their home games. Then they would have a tough 5 game swing with games against vastly improved Miami, Orlando, and New Orleans before finishing against Minnesota and Golden State. When a road game at Golden State looks like a "break" you know your first 11 games have been tough.


This young Blazer team will be tested early and their season very well may be defined by the opening stretch. By the time they have completed this 21 day stretch they will have played 11 games, 13% of their season. That is enough time to get at least a sense of where they are at. Are they competing with the best in the league at a level that promises success this season or are they struggling?

Unfortunately, one of the things young teams often struggle with is confidence and this is a schedule that can do harsh things to that trait. If Portland gets blown out by the Lakers and then loses to the Spurs they would most likely lose in Phoenix and Utah. Suddenly they are 5 games in and the 5000 pound Gorilla gets bigger when they face Houston even though the game is in Portland. In that scenario they would be sitting 1-5 after beating Minnesota and could easily lose 4 or even all 5 of the subsequent road games. If that were to happen it would be disastrous and the once promising season would be all but done. Large boned females would be warming the vocal chords if not outright singing.


On the other hand, if Portland pulls off an opening night upset in LA and follows that up with a win over the Spurs, everything changes. Suddenly they have wins over 2 of the teams they need to beat to be a force. Suddenly a win over Phoenix or Utah would be feasible, the home games against Houston and Minnesota are not just possible wins, they are probable and by the time they start the road trip they are sitting 4-2 or even 5-1 and know they can play with anyone. Look out Miami. They could easily go 3-2 or better on the road trip and suddenly are well set up for the season.

Suddenly that 5 game road trip is not so intimidating. By now they will have seen what Oden can do, how the off-court efforts of Webster and Outlaw are panning out, how having a powerful offensive threat down low has allowed Aldridge to expand his game and suddenly they are a young, energetic team brimming with talent and confidence and they are ready to make a run at the playoffs even though it is quite early in the season.

Obviously there are a variety of scenarios possible for this team. I freely admit to being a Blazer "homer" and as such I work hard to keep my favoritism in check. Sometimes I swing too far the other way and underplay their talent and abilities. I am trying hard to keep my expectations realistic.

We will see how the season goes. If Portland wins early against LA or the Spurs they should survive the brutal first quarter of their season in great shape for a run at a decent playoff seed. If they lose the first couple games it will require a lot of lucky breaks for them to even make the playoffs. Either way, the tough opening schedule will quickly let us assess just how good this team can be. Will they just be potential or will that promise be realized? We should know by the time Halloween is over.

Analyzing the Blazer Draft; Kevin Pritchard, Genius?

Going into the draft the conventional wisdom was the Blazers needed a Small Forward and, more importantly, a Point Guard. They were targeting DJ Augustin and/or Russell Westbrook first and Joe Alexander. It was assumed the pick-up of the 27th pick was to help trade for one of those players. The need at Small Forward was accentuated when James Jones elected not to exercise his option.

Having watched GM Kevin Pritchard the last couple of years, few Blazer fans doubted he would get one of his guys. He always does. It was my personal hope he was targeting Westbrook as I am not a huge fan of under size point guards, though I must admit the excellent size Portland has at the other positions might mitigate those factors.

With the three targeted players gone and Jerryd Bayless off the board at 11 it looked like the master plan had fallen through...until the local affiliate, 95.5 The Game, broke the story that Bayless had been drafted for Portland. ESPN was 35 minutes behind on the story so there was some doubt but finally it was officially announced.

Portland traded Brandon Rush, Josh "McBob" McRoberts, and Jarret Jack for Bayless and Ike Diogu.

Part 2 of the plan had to do with Euro players the Blazers coveted, specifically Nicolas Batum. After he was taken off the board they picked up Darrell Arthur and Joey Dorsey...only to trade them for Batum.

In short, the Blazers reduced their bloated roster (Batum will most likely remain in France) by trading 2 current players (Jack and McRoberts) for essentially 1 player...it is an open question whether Diogu will remain on the roster...while preparing for the future even while improving in the present.

This was a brilliant draft. For the present they have upgraded their roster. In Bayless they have a potentially top 10 point guard. Portland revealed they actually had him rated as the 4th best player in the draft this year, somewhat higher than most teams. With Blake and Sergio Rodriguez still on the roster he will have time to develop, a move only accentuated when you consider that Brandon Roy essentially runs the point during crunch time. Bayless will get some playing time but will not be pressed to give produce too much too soon.

By unloading Jack the Blazers accomplish 2 more items on their agenda. There is a feeling in the organization that Rodriguez might be the point guard of the future. Jack was officially a point guard though in practice he played more like an under size shooting guard. By clearing him out the Blazers both clear up the logjam of combo guards that Jack represented and also clear up more playing time for Rodriguez. The move essentially turns this in to a make or break year for him.

That leaves the small forward position. Martell Webster was the starter last year and showed flashes. Early on it looked like he would be a 13 - 15 point scorer who provided great outside shooting. However, he struggled for large patches of the year and ended up under 11. It is important to remember, however, that Webster is still very young and is still improving.

There are strong indications, however, that Travis Outlaw is penciled in to start. That will leave Webster to come off the bench but both players will get plenty of minutes. It will leave the Blazers a bit more athletic and a bit less plagued with trying to find minutes for all the players they have on their roster. That is only helped by this draft.

Oddly, the draft ended up tightening up the roster. The Blazers are now stacked at least 2 deep at every position with players who will get meaningful minutes and have room to pull some maneuvers such as letting Bayless get time in the D-League. They have flexibility and options at every position and, perhaps best of all, the roster will tighten up even a bit more next season.

The contract of Diogu is up after this season. The contract of Raef LaFrentz expires after this season. With Jones opting out his contract is off the books. In other words, Portland will have room to maneuver.

Let's present a ridiculous scenario. Please note, I have not even a 1% belief this will ever happen bu it is the type of thing that is fun to fantasize about. The Blazers will have a huge amount of cap space in 2010. They will have a starting line-up including Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy with a talented supporting cast surrounding them including Webster for shooting and Outlaw for all-around play. Let's say some star player is looking for a new contract and is more interested in winning a championship or 5 than getting max money. He notices Portland can give him as much money as anyone but his own team...so LeBron James fills in at small forward. Championships would rain from the skies in bunches with that line-up. They would be young, talented, and dominant.

Yeah, I know, there is no chance he would come to a small market on the opposite coast with no night life. But that is the sort of thing that Blazer fans can dream about after this draft. We have a young, talented team that is positioned for a run at greatness and a dynasty. And with money to spare, 2010 looks like the year the Blazers will target players who might actually come and be the difference.

Scouting the 2008-2009 Blazers: The Bench

After taking a look at the possible starters for next season, it is time to take a look at the Blazer reserves.

Joel 'the Thrilla' Przybilla
Offensively Joel is very, very limited. He has no mid-range game whatsoever and little if any post-up game. He is never really an option at that end of the floor. With that said, he does have some positives. He is an above average offensive rebounder, does a nice job on the high pick and roll, and gets most of his points on broken plays or follow up shots. Since he takes virtually shot from inside of 8 feet he ends up shooting a good percentage.

It is on defense where Joel really shines. At times he is a dominant defensive rebounder who can totally control the boards. He uses basic fundamentals to block out the opposition and has above average timing and good hands. He is also a shot-blocking machine, particularly close in. He probably had more blocked dunk attempts than anyone else in the entire league. He is not particularly mobile, however, so his strength is against the big, strong post-up centers. Quicker guys tend to give him problems.

Probably the biggest weakness for Joel is his injury prone tendencies. He has never played a full season in the NBA. A lot of his injuries have been freak type things...but they keep happening. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Overall Joel is an excellent role player who can provide rugged interior defense and rebounding. He won't provide much scoring but you know that going in.

Channing Frye
Frye has a nice mid-range jumper that can be devastating when he is on. However, he is somewhat reminiscent of Brad Sellers...he is a big man whom is seldom seen inside for whatever reason.

Defensively he has a bit of a mean streak. You won't get any easy buckets against him...but you will score. At times he is a decent rebounder but too often he loses focus.

Frye is an intriguing talent. He was once a lottery pick but has never fulfilled his promise. With Oden coming in he will not get any minutes at the Center position and he will be fighting Travis Outlaw for minutes behind Aldridge. As a result, he will be towards the end of the bench or else gone via trade.

Josh 'McBob' McRoberts
McRoberts spent a bit of time in the D-League. He needed more time. Rumors abound that the popular McBob was kept around as a "comfort factor" for Oden. Expect that to continue. With Oden, Przybilla, Aldridge and Frye in front of him you will not see McRoberts on the floor even if by some miracle he is still on the roster.

James Jones
Jones is an intriguing talent. He provides excellent outside shooting and will go inside on occasion. Last season he was leading the league in 3-point percentage after the All-Star break before slumping. He is very dangerous shooting from the corner but, unlike Martell Webster, he does not just plant himself in the corner and make himself easy to defend. He will move side to side a bit to make the defense move. Nor does he limit himself to pumping up shots from outside the arc. Just often enough to slow the defense he will pump fake and drive to the rack. He is also more willing than most Blazers to get out on the fast break.

Defensively he tries pretty hard but is not very effective. Quick players habitually break him down and make the defense scramble when in the man to man. He is a bit more effective in the zone as his long arms and quickness let him be a bit disruptive in the passing lanes.

Jones also has a bit of a mean streak. When he and Frye are on the floor together at the same time you can expect to see opponent bodies on the floor at some point. Both tend to take a lot of fouls and have a lot of those fouls be hard fouls that are sometimes borderline dirty, a fact I am not fond of.

The other factor to consider is Jones also seems to be injury prone. He missed a lot of games last season.

Jones is most effective when he can come in to provide some long distance shooting and instant offense. In that role he is a valuable, lethal player whose deficiencies can be hidden. The more minutes he plays the easier he is to expose. Properly used he is the type of player who vastly improves a team as evidenced by the Blazers well over .500 record in games he played last year. He shares the Small Forward role with Webster and sometimes fills in at Shooting Guard, although with Rudy Fernandez arriving to back up Brandon Roy the latter minutes will be curtailed a great deal.

Jones is a great role player on a team like Portland. He is not expected to provide major minutes but performs very well in 15 - 25 minute per game stretches.

Travis Outlaw
If ever there was a player without a position, it has been Outlaw. He has played everything from Center to Power Forward to Small Forward to Shooting Guard and with varying degrees of success...within the same game. He is too fast for opposing Power Forwards, too tall for opposing Small Forwards, and can stay with most Shooting Guards. He can bomb away from 3 point land or drive as well as anyone on the team. He is a match-up nightmare for the opposition. He is also an exciting player; he probably had more momentum changing plays than any other Blazer. His highlight real hammer cocking dunk over Andre Iguodala of the 76ers got as many cheers as any other highlight with the possible exception of Roy's.

His offensive strength lies in his versatility. His .396% from long range trailed only Jones and Steve Blake. He shot a few too many from outside which dragged down his overall percentage, though that will improve with experience. He is great at creating his own shot as well. One of his favorite moves is to face up his defender, make a quick jab step to create space, and pull up for essentially an uncontested jumper. It works because his outside shot is good enough to make that respectable, he has the speed to get to the rim and power to finish, and he elevates so high that it is all but impossible for a defender to bother his shot.

Additionally, he is one of those players who is not afraid of the moment. He took the shot that really defined the Blazers season. Early on the Blazers had been struggling, losing games they should have won, not competing in some games. Against a Memphis team they needed to handle with just seconds left on the clock the ball ended up in Outlaw's hands. It is significant that he did not start that game...or many others...but he was finishing it. The young man created his own shot and in a shot that beat the buzzer by a photo-finish microsecond made the clutch bucket to give Portland their first road win...and first of 13 straight that carried the Blazers from a 6 games under to 7 games over .500 record. Arguably, that shot saved the season. And while it was the first of the game-ending shots he would take, it would not be the last.

Coach McMillan quickly learned Outlaw is a player he can rely on in the 4th quarter. If Roy is the Blazers' best prime time player then Outlaw is 1A. He is clutch, he is not afraid of the big shot, and if he misses it then he does what the best players do...he forgets about it and goes back in his mind to the one he made.

Defensively he is unsteady. At times he is spectacular. At various times he was focused, was moving his feet, and with his length he can bother the shot of virtually any player he faces. However, in the zone he tends to get lost, leave his area of responsibility and does not help on the boards as much as someone with his size and leaping ability should.

Outlaw is a high motor guy with seemingly boundless energy. He can transmit that energy to the crowd in a variety of ways...he can deliver a highlight reel dunk, he can make a sky-walking, out of nowhere block, or he can make an energy play. He reminded me a bit of Jerome Kersey a few times this year when he caught up from behind to reject break-away dunk or lay-in attempts. And he is only going to get better.

For whatever reason, mostly because of his contract, he is repeatedly brought up as the Blazer most likely to be traded. That is the biggest mistake Portland can make. He has future All-Star ability, can play on the floor inside or outside, and is taking charge of his career. He has been durable and coach able and his only downside is some have questioned his basketball IQ. He does get a little lost at times but it is important to remember he is still young, only 23. Physically, he has the tools to be a top 5 player in the league and is developing the mentality. It remains to be seen if he will put it all together.


Rudy Fernandez
Fernandez is an international star and good enough that many people claim he would be the 3rd pick in this year's draft behind Beasely and Rose. The excitement over his impending arrival has been felt throughout the city. In international play he has been a prolific scorer with above average passing skills. He is also rumored to have questionable man to man defensive skills. In the interest of full disclosure I have not really followed the international game so all I have is rumor and innuendo.

He will be providing backup minutes at Shooting Guard behind Brandon Roy. Since Roy played nearly 38 minutes per game last year, there is not a lot of time, particularly if Jarrett Jack is kept around as he, Jones, and Webster all took turns at the position last year. However, it is anticipated the Blazers will experiment with running Roy at the point a bit more this year which will give Fernandez a bit more playing time. Either way, Portland has the roster to give him time to develop and learn the NBA game.

Jarrett Jack
Jack was projected to be the starting point guard last year but just a handful of games in he proved to be unready. He slid quietly into the role of instant offense off the bench and at first played really well but then he hit an extended slump before again hitting his stride towards the end of the year. Jack is a more natural shooting guard than point when you examine his skill set.

Offensively Jack is at his best when he is penetrating. He can get into the paint virtually at will but once he gets there he sometimes gets lost, deciding too late whether to shoot or pass. He has a nice little teardrop running one hander and is good at drawing contact. When he gets to the line he is the best foul shooter on the Blazers. He is okay from the 3-point line but is not going to make anyone tremble. Either way he tends to get sloppy with the ball and tends to turn it over in bunches.

Defensively he is an average on the ball defender and a decent ball hawk out top in the zone but he tends to get overpowered by guards who can post him up.

Overall he is a streaky player. When he is playing well he makes solid contributions, stays within his game, and is a serviceable player. When he plays poorly he can really hurt the team. Hopefully another year of experience will help him gain a bit of consistency. If not, he is likely to be the odd man out in the rotation.

Sergio Rodriguez
Sergio is a real mixed bag. He can be a spark plug who wins lost games or a goof who loses games that were in the bag. He tends to get himself into McMillans doghouse and disappear for long stretches.

At his best Rodriguez is penetrating the lane and creating havoc for the defense. He has excellent court vision and is lightning quick. He can break down any defender and will find the open man. In one notable game he had something like 8 assists in 5 minutes. However, at other times he looks for his shot and that is when he costs the team. He is a lot like Jason Kidd...he has talent, he just uses it for the wrong end and the opposition is more than willing to let them shoot it.

Defensively he is a wreck. He tends to let his man by him way to often, he gambles too much in the passing lanes and the others have to cover for him.

The best use for Rodriguez is to change the pace of a game. He gets the ball up the floor in a hurry and with him on the floor the Blazers give a completely different look than when Blake, Jack, or Roy is running the team. He can play 5 - 6 minutes at a time at a high level and his deficiencies are not badly exposed there. When he plays longer he tends to get abused and the team suffers.

The Bench
As a whole the Blazer bench has a lot to offer. There is versatility, firepower, defense and rebounding. Properly used there are players who can change the pace and flow of the game or shore up holes. The biggest problem the Blazers will have is finding minutes. I would anticipate that Raef LaFrentz and Von Wafer will not be on the roster at all and some combination of 2 -3 players from among Frye, Webster, Jones, Jack, Rodriguez, and Blake will be packaged together in trades.

The bench can contribute significant minutes and in Outlaw, Przybilla, Jack, and Jones they have guys who are capable of stepping in and starting if a starter gets injured. For that matter, if he sticks around you could include LaFrentz in that category.

With another year of development the bench figures to be a strong point for this team.

Coming up next: Projecting next year

Scouting the 2008-2009 Blazers

Heading into the off-season, Blazermania is scaling back a bit yet there is still palpable excitement. Next year is expected to be a break-through season and the fans are waiting with great anticipation. We don't just want to squeak into the playoffs, we want to roar in and do some damage. However, before we get to that point, what will the team look like? Here is a player by player breakdown.



Greg Oden

It will all start with the man in the middle. 2007-2008 saw Portland struggle on the boards as even indifferent teams regularly won that battle. Oden is anticipated to change that around. He his big, strong, agile, and fairly quick for a big guy. His workout regimen while recovering from micro fracture surgery was so strenuous that team officials actually insisted he scale it back for fear he would become so bulky that he would lose the speed and athleticism that make him special. Oden has already shown he knows a good deal about rebounding in college. His transition to the demands of the boards in the NBA can only be helped by the coaching of Maurice Lucas, a solid rebounder in his own years in the NBA. It would not be shocking to see Oden pull down double digit boards almost every night if he can stay out of foul trouble. That foul trouble is likely to come on the defensive end.



Defensively he may have an Achilles Heel. He demonstrated superior shot-blocking abilities in college as his size, leaping ability and timing combined to give him an advantage over the majority of centers he faced in college. In the NBA he will still often have the advantages but will face stiffer competition. And that can lead to foul trouble...particularly for Oden who is already on record as saying he would try to block every shot. For a rookie, this is a recipe for disaster. If he is out there flying around trying to do to much he will hear a lot of whistles and spend a great deal of time on the bench. That will hurt him at the offensive end.



On the offensive game he will be counted on for back to the basket offense. His imposing size will make entry passes easy if he can establish position. The micro fracture surgery has been a blessing in this regard as Oden has received a great deal of valuable one-on-one instruction from the Blazer coaching staff. Reports coming out have his game expanding. He can use either hand for little baby hooks and has a pretty good spin move. When he goes to the line his free throw shooting is above average.



By all reports he has responded very well to coaching. Additionally, there can be no questioning his desire to play as evidenced by the incident where he played pick-up basketball at a 24 Hour Fitness since that is where he found a game. He seems to have the complete package. He has one other weak link, and that is his history of injuries.



Coming out of college is a big step for anybody. Coming out of college and having that compounded by missing the rookie season with a micro fracture in the knee is even bigger. Nobody questions the capabilities or will of Oden...the only question is how it will translate to the court. His upside is huge. If things break his way he could score 15 - 20 points a game, pull down 8 - 10 rebounds, block 2 - 3 shots, and be an instant All-Star. On the other hand, he could find himself saddled with foul trouble and only chip in 10 points and 5 rebounds. Even worse would be another injury. The Blazers franchise and fans have put an unrealistic burden on this young man but it will be interesting to see how he responds.



LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge should have received some consideration for Most Improved Player last year. His points and rebounds both nearly doubled, his defense improved by leaps and bounds, and he was a key component on a team that lost its best scorer, rebounder, and shooter...and improved 8 games.



Aldridge made huge strides last year. He was not always consistent...one game he would dominate the boards and the next he would end up with just 1 or 2. He had one stretch of 7 or 8 games where he averaged over 20 points and shot over 50% and then, inexplicably, melted down against the defense-inhibited Supersonics.



Yet he never quit working on his game. After one poor outing the Blazers couldn't find him. At last someone thought to check the practice facility and there was Aldridge, working alone on the shots he could not get to fall in the game. The next night he came out and had a monster game. By the end of the season, almost every night the Blazer broadcasters would look on in awe as they said, "Their is a move we have not seen from LaMarcus before."



2 games against the Suns tell us all we need to know about his ability to improve. In the first one, Amare Stoudemire got into his head. Stoudemire bothered every shot he took and rendered him completely ineffective. Bricks, turnovers, airballs...those were the modus operandi for Aldridge. The next time they played he made some subtle adjustments and, while Stoudemire still outplayed him, he at least held his own and was a force for the Blazers. He has no quit in him and will not yield to anyone. He has all the tools to continue to improve offensively.



He has a silky smooth jumper that is good out to 17 or 18', a developing post-up game, and is willing to run the floor. Expect to see his scoring average increase yet again on offense and for his defense to continue to improve.



He has the length and speed to trouble the shot of anyone he is matched up against on defense. His primary weaknesses are twofold. First, his long, lean frame makes it tough for him to match up for bigger, stronger players as he can be pushed around a bit. Second, he sometimes struggles to properly block out and gives up a lot of offensive rebounds. He largely counteracts this with a motor that never quits.



If Aldridge shows just average development he will soon be mentioned in the same breath as some of the top forwards in the league. However, to take that step he will need to learn to play alongside Oden who will receive the majority of the touches on the block. If the 2 big men do not play well together it would be disastrous.



Martell Webster

At the beginning of last year I thought Webster would be good for 12 - 15 points a game and a half dozen rebounds. It proved to be a disappointing season and now that door might be closed. With Oden, Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Travis Outlaw all slated to score 15 - 20 points there are simply not going to be that many shots left. That is unfortunate because Webster has one of the better shots in the league...at least, he does by reputation.

On offense, that is his strength. He can stroke the three with anyone in the League. However, it is also his weakness. Because he is such a good shooter from downtown he neglects the rest of his offense. You seldom see Webster drive into the lane or pull up for a mid-range jumper. In fact, too often he does not move at all...he heads to his preferred corner and stands there, nearly immobile. When defenses collapse off of him, Webster makes them pay with his shooting. When the offense is on the far side of the floor his defender can sag off which helps the defensive rotations and causes Webster to become a liability.

Defensively he is a mixed bag. He showed flashes at times of being the Blazers' best on the ball defender. He even did a passable job defending Kobe Bryant and LeBron James in one on one situations. However, when the Blazers switch to their zone defense he often gets lost and leaves his area open. This gaping hole led to some huge breakdowns over the course of last year.

On the boards he has shown flashes. From time to time he will go down amongst the tall timber and grab some pretty rugged rebounds but more often than not he is a non-factor. He should get more rebounds at his size and position and needs to improve in that regard.

This position is rightfully considered one of the 2 big weaknesses on the team. Webster showed flashes early in the season and was averaging low to mid teens in points, shooting well, and playing acceptable defense. As the season wore on, however, he slumped across the board. He then came on strong towards the end of the season. He has shown flashes of true greatness such as his 25 points or so against Utah in the third quarter and towards the end of the season he had a nice string of games.

He is young and Portland loves his potential so he will get another long look and probably, barring a trade, start the season as the small forward. If he fulfills his promise the Blazers should have an extremely successful season, possibly even exceeding 50 wins. If he struggles his he could quickly find himself on the bench.

Brandon Roy
Every NBA fan knows his name by now. Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump to become Western Conference All-Star, and was getting some early mentions as MVP though of course those (rightfully) faded away as the Blazers also faded away. He is the heart and soul of the current Blazer roster.

In crunch time he always has the ball in his hand, usually for a pick and roll. His Jordanesque fake right, switch the ball to his left hand, flip up the reverse layup highlight almost always got the largest cheer of any highlight every time it was shown. It was a spectacular move and it showed everything you need to know about Roy...he is not the tallest or strongest or quickest...but he gets the job done.

Offensively he has a solid game. He is a solid mid-range shooter and an above average penetrator. He has excellent court vision which leads to assists in bunches. His three point shooting is a bit suspect but he recognizes this and does not shoot them in volume. As a result he is a dangerous offensive player.

His numbers are less overwhelming than they would be because he tends to spend 1 - 2 quarters getting everyone else involved and does the bulk of his scoring in the 3rd and 4th quarters. At one point late last season he was second in the league in 4th quarter points to LeBron James. When the points mean the most he is scoring them. The downside of this is last year, with their most potent offensive player not scoring, the Blazers sometimes struggled to get rolling early in the game.

Defensively, Coach Nate McMillan loves his game. At key points in games he would often be matched up with guys like Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and so forth. At times this worked well. In one memorable stretch against Atlanta he forced Johnson into an air ball and a 24 second shot clock violation. Conversely, James and Bryant had layups. Not that Johnson is in their class, but he is a very capable one on one player. Still, Roy did an overall decent job against those two players as well.

At times he is a lock down defender in man to man and he was the best on the team at getting into the passing lanes and picking off errant tosses. However, he does have vulnerabilities to the top penetrators in the league and to smaller, faster guards.

He also is susceptible to injury as he struggled with that issue in both college and his first two seasons. If he continues to have injury problems it could derail a very promising team from fulfilling expectations.

His stats don't tell the full story of Roy's value but they are still impressive. Look for another All-Star worthy performance even if his 22 point, 5 rebound, 6 assist numbers do not improve with the addition of Oden.

Steve Blake
Point Guard is the other position of concern for the Blazers. Currently it is manned by Steve Blake. Blake catches a lot of flack from Blazer fans. He is not a high scoring guy, does not register a large number of assists, and is an average defender.

Offensively he does not shoot a lot but he has the knack of knocking down clutch threes. He shot better than 40% on them throughout the year. It is seldom you see him shooting from closer than three. He can surprise you with an occasional penetration but those times are relatively rare. For the most part he just moves the ball around the perimeter and makes entry passes. His role is minimized by the role Roy takes in distributing the ball and as a result the Blazers essentially play with 2 combo guards. Blake is a point only in the sense that he brings the ball up the floor.

Blake is the type of solid role player that can make a good team great. He does not need a lot of shots but if the opposition sags off, he will make them pay with a trey, he is not afraid of taking the big shot and does not complain about not having a bigger role. Is he a starter on a playoff winning team? I will argue that, in the right setting, yes...and he fits in well with Portland.

That is not easy for me as I am not a big Steve Blake fan either but the truth is he fits very well with their current make-up. Yet the Blazer franchise is taking a long, hard look at this position. It will be interesting to see if Blake is still with the franchise and/or starting. I actually think Portland will not be making a mistake to keep him...but time will tell.


Starting Lineup
That is the current starting line-up. It is well balanced. Oden and Aldridge should provide interior defense, rebounding, and a strong post presence. Webster and Blake provide long distance shooting and perimeter defense and Roy makes it all run. This is a team that should improve on last season's rather pedestrian offensive numbers and with a year of maturity will score the ball better. Their already above average defense should also improve.

Coming up next: A look at the bench