T is for title: The Blazers Season Pre-view

Last season, the Blazers tied with the Nuggets for the best record in the Northwest Division, 54-28. they then gave back all the hard work in the first game of the playoffs, getting rolled up at home by Utah. Once that game was over, they quickly showed they had what it took to win in the playoffs at home and competed in almost every road game, but never broke through and ended their season early and in disappointing fashion.

Yes, a team that most observers last pre-season thought were still a season away from playoff contention found disappointment in exiting in the first round.

They then went out and got significantly better in several ways.

First, they upgraded at their weakest position, point guard. Gone is inconsistent, disgruntled Sergio Rodriguez, replaced by the durable and skilled Andre Miller. Second, gone is erratic good guy Channing Frye and in his place is the steady Juwan Howard.

But it was not just free agents that changed the face of this team. Another year of experience has turned this team from young, hungry and talented into battle-tested, hungry and talented. Aside from that, they are essentially getting two guys back from injury.

The first is Martell Webster. He is an under rated defender and lights out shooter. He could have provided the offensive spark the Blazers sorely needed against the Rockets. While he is not as good defensively as Niclolas Batum, he usually does a creditable job.

Second, they get back from injury a guy who played in 61 games last year. But none of those games were at full strength. It is well known that microfracture surgery slows guys down for nearly a full year after their return, as Kenyon martin, A'mare Stoudemire and others can attest. So welcome back, Greg Oden.

Gone is the hulking mass of muscle that was Oden last year and in its place is a quick, agile guy who moves his feet, has good lateral quickness, has shown explosive leaping ability and excellent timing.

This is a guy who will defend the paint, clean the glass, and has shown some rapid improvement offensively. He turns the center position from above average defensively but non-factor on offense into decent offensively with the potential to be spectacular defensively.

Adding Oden, Webster, Howard and Miller to a roster that earned 54 wins last season shouts potential. This is a team that has everything it needs to win and win now.

The starting line-up looked set until Nicolas Batum went down with a shoulder injury. Fortunately, this team is so deep that his absence until possibly February should not slow this team down at all...and might even help it. The 18 or so minutes he played last year will be taken up by Webster and possibly allow a few more minutes for Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez.

Now the starting line-up will probably see Oden at Center, LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward, Webster at the 3, Brandon Roy at shooting guard and Steve Blake at the point.

This is a team that has great interior defense and suspect perimeter guarding skills. At the other end of the court, with Blake and Webster manning the 3-point line, teams will have to pick their poison. Do they want to double team Aldridge on the block or let him wreck their interior? Oden is a threat to throw down some ferocious dunks off offensive boards.

Alternatively, they can double Aldridge and Oden, only to see Webster and Blake kill them from distance. All of this does not even take into account Roy, the best offensive player the Blazers have.

There is not much of a let-down off the bench, either.

Joel Przybilla is not going to score much, but he will block shots, rebound, and generally provide a physical presence.

Juwan Howard will play in short stretches and provide steady, veteran leadership...if he gets minutes at all. Those might go to Outlaw, who has played very well at the power forward spot. His length and speed make him a match-up nightmare. Not strong enough to bang with starter-quality big men, he is more than capable of taking on second unit players from almost every team in the NBA. Furthermore, he provides the second unit with a guy who can create his own shot at will.

Outlaw will also see minutes at small forward, but will share those with swing-man Rudy Fernandez. Coming off a year where he set the rookie record for 3-pointers, he provides dynamic offense. He kind of reminds me of Vinnie "the Microwave" Johnson from the Bad Boys days. he can light it up in a hurry. when his shot is not falling, he has shown the capability and willingness to drive the lane and put up points there. His defense is somewhat suspect, but he fills the passing lanes very well.

That brings us to Andre Miller. He will start the season coming off the bench. With this line-up, there is some potential for him to do what he does best, which is to run the floor and play an up-tempo game. Fernandez and Outlaw look to benefit from this style of play.

So Portland is stacked. There second team would compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and their starting line-up is as good as any in the league.

The only thing that can keep them from doing serious damage in the playoffs is not believing in themselves.

This is not to make light of teams like the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Nuggets. the Spurs have an incredibly potent starting line-up, the Nuggets have the potential to be one of the most explosive offensive juggernauts not named the Suns in the last few years, and the Lakers, coming off a title, only got better with Ron Artest replacing Trevor Ariza.

But the Blazers are actually that good. Yes, I might be looking at them through rose-colored glasses...but I do not think so.

Starting the moment they drafted Brandon Roy and got Aldridge in a draft-day trade, they have gotten better and better. They got to 41 wins quicker than (almost) anyone thought possible. They got to 54 wins when most people thought 47 or 48 wins would be a great year. And now we are hearing a form of the same thing.

"The jump from 21 wins to 32 was one thing, but getting to .500 is a lot harder." was the assessment after 2006-07.

"It is one thing to get to 41 wins, but the jump to 50 wins is a lot harder," was the belief after 07-08.

"Getting to 54 wins is great, but getting to 60 from 54 is a lot harder than getting to 54." is a pretty common pre-view this year.

Maybe. But this team has not only shown steady improvement, they have shown they know what the next step they need to take is.

Roy, time after time last year, in post-game interviews would discuss the next thing the Blazers needed to do rather than gushing about the things the team had accomplished up to that time. And one thing after another fell. They beat San Antonio. He almost single-handed ended the long losing streak to the Suns when he poured in a "quiet 52 points". He was not going to lose to the Suns on that night.

This season, the Blazers will have Roy's drive, the return of improved Oden, the natural progression of Aldridge and Fernandez, the steadying veteran influences of Howard and Miller, and the hunger to take them higher than people believe possible.

This is a team that should finish north of 60. "It is harder to get to 60 than 54". Only if you do not have the talent. This team has the talent to win well over 60 games.

It is a team that has the talent to win any series they encounter in the playoffs. They have seen it now, they know what it takes. They have won in Utah. They have won in San Antonio. They need to get Denver out of their heads and get a win there.

Their goal this year should be one thing. It is not, "getting to the playoffs". It is not "getting home court". It is not "getting out of the first round". Their goal, plain and simple, should be winning it all.

They need to start Tuesday night against Houston. They need to come out and set the tone for the season, taking it to a decent but over-matched Rocket team. Then, Thursday, when Denver arrives, they need to serve notice the Northwest Title is staying in Portland this year, but this time it will not be shared. Then, on Halloween, they need to go into Houston and accomplish that which eluded them in the playoffs; a win.

No excuses. No saying, "it is a tough place for us to win". Plain and simple, they need to come out and show they are the team to beat this year.

Unlike last year, when they started with a schedule so brutal it ranked as the toughest start since the 60s, Portland has a relatively soft schedule this year.

I am going to come out and flat out say it would be a choke job to lose to Houston on opening night. Denver is good enough to win in Portland, but that is what sets great teams apart from the very good; defending home court. So I will say Portland should win that one, too.

They then have road games at Houston and Oklahoma City. Both are eminently winnable.

They then have a 3 game home stand in which only San Antonio should be tough. then 5 road games, with only the Hornets and Hawks being games Portland should not be favored in. Home versus Detroit, a game at Golden State, then 4 more at home before closing November out at Utah.

It would not be a huge shock for Portland to be 15-4 by the end of November. They are that good.

So yeah, I am going to go out on a limb here. The low end expectation for the Blazers is Conference Finals and it is not out of the realm of possibility for them to win a title. Not next year. Not three years from now. Not after they start losing guys because they cannot afford to keep them around.

This year.

60+ wins, at least Conference Finals is my prediction.

Partying in the streets is my hope. I think they are probably about 5-1 against winning a title, but that is not beyond reasonable to see. Lets get this party started.

Preview:January

After the home loss to Boston, the Blazers will face soon to be arch rival New Orleans. This should be an awesome game. Tyson Chandler has the defensive skills to cause problems for Oden and West can be a nightmare on offense. Conversely, he can't stay with Aldridge defensively. Pedrag Stojakovich is going to get his points and Chris Paul will torch Portland again and again. At the same time, the Hornets have no answer for Roy or for the waves of talent Portland can pull from the bench. Look for the Hornets to win the scoring battle with the starters and Portland to dominate the bench scoring.

With so many talented offensive players on the floor, any game between these two teams has the potential to be one of those 120 point nights we see all too rarely in todays NBA, though the rugged, physical nature of play between guys like Chandler, Greg Oden, and Joel Przybilla could turn it into an 85-80 slugfest.

Coming off their loss to the Celtics, the Blazers will be hungry and will find the will to win this one.
20-13

Which is a good thing because they then head to L.A. to face the hated Lakers. Barring major injury issues, the Lakers should hold serve. In Portland L.A. will have tough battles, but in L.A. they should still prevail.
20-14

Back home to face the Pistons. This is the time of year when nobody wants to face the Pistons. They will have settled into their new rotations, they will be comfortable with their new coach, and they are still loaded with Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince, and some developing younger players. In fact, I actually have Detroit down to win this one.
20-15

Next up will be Golden State. By now they should have Monta Ellis back. With Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, and Corey Maggette, Golden State can score plenty but stop little. Portland will rise up with a superior defensive effort and win handily.
21-15

The Blazers keep getting lengthy road trips. At this point, they have had 1 5 game home stand and one 3 game to go with road trips of 5, 4, and 3 games. Now they head out for 4 more, first up being Chicago.

Chicago is one of the few teams in the league who goes as deep at guard as Portland. With Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Larry Hughes, Sabo Sefolosha, and of course Rookie Derrick Rose, they go every bit as deep as Portland's Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez, Jerryd Bayless, Brandon Roy, and Rudy Fernandez. However, I think most GMs would take the Portland 5 over the Chicago 5. Either way, neither team has anything to be ashamed of.

By this game Martell Webster should be back in the starting line-up and be growing more comfortable. The Blazers should be playing pretty well with a good mix of inside-outside offense and getting their defensive rotations down. They will start the road trip off with a win.
22-15

Next up is Philadelphia. Last year it was the game in Philadelphia that set the Blazers season back several steps. When Portland blew a 20 point second half lead to come back and lose it changed the complexion of their early season. They went on to lose several games they otherwise would probably have won as their confidence was badly shaken.

This year, the 76ers are much better. It will be interesting to see what the addition of Elton Brand does for them. Some prognosticators have them going deep into the Eastern Conference playoffs. Maybe yes, maybe no. It does give them enough firepower that when the Blazers once again lose in Philly, this time it won't hurt as bad.
22-16

The next night is a game in New Jersey. Even though it is a road game and back to back, there is no reason Portland should ever lose this game. But they will. With the exception of Devin Harris, Portland is more talented at every position. This is the type of game that young teams often give up, where they know they will win but just forget to actually close the deal.
22-17

It will serve as a wake-up call, however, and they will go ballistic on the Charlotte Bobcats. The Bobcats have some talent, they just have not figured out how to put it together yet. Maybe Larry Brown will be the answer. The one thing he can't answer is the overwhelming talent advantage Portland has.
23-17

Coming home from the road trip, the Blazers face the retooled Milwaukee Bucks. In unloading Ji Yianling, they rectified a Darko Milicic-like draft mistake and got a pretty good Small Forward in Richard Jefferson. People forget how young and good he is. Along with Michael Redd, the Bucks have some scoring punch. Unfortunately, outside of those two and maybe Andrew Bogut, the best thing the Bucks have going for them is the Energee...Portland should win handily.
24-17

Cleveland is completely the LeBron James show. They keep trying to build a team that works off his skill set. They keep putting together just enough that Cleveland is a top half of the Eastern Conference team that, if they catch a break, could return to the Finals. Ultimately, at some point every year they get exposed as being what they are...a decent team with a great player. That is more effective in the regular season than it is in the post-season and thus year after year they do well early while against teams LeBron can beat with less help and sometimes win a second series if one guy gets hot...

King James is also in the heads of the Blazers. Watch him rip their hearts out once again as they play well enough to win...except for stopping James when it matters. The Cavaliers win.
24-18

By this time the Blazers will be upset with how they are playing. They let one get away in the Cleveland game, let one get away in the New Jersey game, and now Washington is in town. Arenas will take too many ill-advised shots, the Blazers will play their team game and Roy will have an outstanding game to set the tone. From here out, the Blazers will play better ball the remainder of the season. Blazers beat Washington.
25-18

2 nights later they are in L.A. This time, though, it is the lowly Clippers. On the surface, the Clips look decent. Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman, Baron Davis...that is 3/5ths of a good starting line-up. And Cuttino Mobley still has some miles off the bench. Too bad they have to play 5 guys at a time... the Blazers win this one easily.
26-18

Back home to face Charlotte. If the Bobcats can't compete with a road-tripping Blazer team, they will get shelled by a home-standing team starting to make its move.
27-18

For the first time all year Portland has a 3 game win streak and is 9 games over .500. Into town comes Utah for their second meeting. This should be a very fun game and the Blazers, riding high, should close out the month with a win.

Wins in 6 of their last 7 games give the Blazers a 9-5 mark for the month and carry them to 28-18 mark.

Coach McMillan, Brandon Roy and the Blazers:The Time is Now

Tuesday night will be the first time Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez show up in Blazer uniforms in an NBA setting. Sure, it is "just preseason" and preseason games have as much meaning as the midnight promise in a bar to respect her in the morning, but there is still a thrill and excitement there.

Fans for every team experience it. Maybe this is the year Sebastian Telfair learns to shoot (but it won't be), maybe the addition of Elton Brand will mean playoff success (probably), maybe the renewed health of Dwayne Wade combined with a full season of the Matrix and arrival of Beasley will mean a return to glory (don't be surprised) and there is even someone, somewhere, thinking the arrival of Baron Davis will mean a deep playoff run for the Clippers (insert explosive laughter here...face it, they are the Clippers, after all*).

Blazer fans are no different. We have heard repeatedly this is the most talented Blazer team ever. That covers a lot of ground when you remember the Bill Walton/Maurice Lucas front line with Johnny Dawkins bringing the ball in to them, when you remember the fearsome Clyde Drexle/Terry Porter/Jerome Kersey/Buck Williams/Kevin Duckworth line-up where Uncle Cliffy aka Cliff Robinson was the 6th man, and so forth.

There have been numerous predictions of great success in the near future. Yet over and over, one theme keeps coming back. "They are among the most talented teams in the league, but they won't be any better than an 8th seed this year because they are young."

Some people aren't buying it. Coach Nate McMillan, for example. "I know we're young, but we're past that. That stuff was one or two years ago." In other words, he wants to instill a winning attitude and not use age as an excuse. He is saying the Blazers have the talent to win and win now.


If they are in truth as talented on the court as they are on paper then he is exactly right to say that. When you look at the Blazer roster, one thing jumps out. Almost every night they will be facing teams with arguably less talent on the floor and seldom indeed will they see another roster that can match up to them top to bottom.

There are really only two reasons for them to not blow past the 50 win mark, gain a decent seed, and do some damage in the playoffs: first, their reliance on 3 rookies and natural progression for a couple other young players. Second, the low expectations people have for them. That includes the expectation of them starting off at or below .500.

Much has been made of their tough early season schedule, and that is a fair concern. They are playing some of the top teams in the League. However, when you look at the rosters from top to bottom it quickly becomes apparent they should still win a good percentage of those games.

The Lakers ended up with home court advantage last season for a reason. With Kobe Bryant they have one of the top 2 players in the game today. Behind him they have All-Stars or at least All-Star caliber in the persons of Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and barring further injury, Andrew Bynum. They also have some talented role players who can change the game in Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and so forth. Overall they have a scary good roster with one of the greatest coaches of all time.

And yet, from a talent standpoint, the Blazers match up very well. Steve Blake and Fisher are near clones of each other, the front line of Gasol and Bynum will face the duo of LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden, the talented Odom will face the equally talented Travis Outlaw off the bench (if that is how Jackson chooses to use him) and that leaves out the expected bench contributions of Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez. In other words, on the nights where Brandon Roy is within shouting distance of the numbers put up by Bryant, the Blazers should have a better than average shot at winning the game. Of course, that also highlights one of the differences.

The Blazers do not at this point have anyone who does for them what Bryant does for the Lakers, what Paul Pierce does for the Celtics, what LeBron James does for the Cavaliers, and so forth. Whereas Roy is unarguably a stud and effective, he does not own the game the way those players do.

Once before Portland had a highly talented team. Twice in three years they went to the Finals. They could score inside or out, they could rebound and play defense and on any given night you might see Porter, Kersey, Robinson, or Drexler go for 30 or more points. But at the end of close games they had too many guys who COULD take the shot to actually have THE GUY, the one who took the shot.

Both The Long Hot Winter by Coach Adelman and Against the World by Dwight Jaynes and Kerry Eggers detailed how that flaw derailed the 1992-93 season and was the difference between losing the Finals in 6 games and winning. The Bulls had some guy named Jordan and the Blazers didn't. They need to develop him, and the most likely candidate is indeed named Roy.

But it is not just the Lakers. Their second game will be against perennial Title contenders San Antonio. The Spurs indisputably have better players at point guard and power forward than Portland. Tim Duncan is always an MVP candidate and Tony Parker is one of the most dangerous point guards in the League. Additionally, when he gets healthy Manu Ginobli is an above average 2 way player who can cause conniptions.

Yet Aldridge matches up fairly well with Duncan. The Blazers will have distinct advantages at center and shooting guard with the small forward position being a wash. Coming off the bench with the firepower of Fernandez and Outlaw should give Portland a nice edge that the Spurs will need all of their vaunted team defense to neutralize. Of course, we all know they are well-coached and talented enough to do just that. Somehow, year after year the Spurs look up at other teams in terms of overall talent and yet end up in or near the Finals. That is no accident. They play together, they play their system, and the sum is greater than the parts.

When you break it down team by team it is quickly apparent the players who will play significant minutes for the Blazers look to be as good as or better than the players who will play significant minutes for even the best teams in the League.

So if they are that talented, have the excellent team chemistry that is being so highly touted, and have the desire to win, why argue they will fall short 33+ times this year?

After the initial burst of enthusiasm there has been a rash of Blazer fans talking about "reining in our expectations", about "being happy with 45 wins and maybe an 8 seed", about finishing third in the division behind Utah and Denver, about gaining experience in the playoffs this year and maybe making a run at the title in three or four years.

Let me be among the first to say bollocks. Forget the young label. Forget the injury prone label. Let's show some confidence. Let's pull together behind this team, go out there every night expecting to win the home games and to have a chance to win almost every night on the road. Let's say yes, we do expect to show another huge gain, to win well over 50 games, and to do some damage in the playoffs.

We have the talent, we have the opportunity, all we need is the confidence. And that goes for the fans as well as the players. Show the team you believe they are as good as we say they are.

Is it a tough task to run down L.A., San Antonio, Utah, Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, Charlotte and Denver? Absolutely. There is some phenomenal talent in the NBA right now. But is that task more likely to happen if we say "We aren't there yet" or if we say, "Yeah, we are that good." Show some swagger, Blazer fan, and enjoy the journey, and go Neon Deion on some people.

Several years ago, Deion Sanders left a Super Bowl winning 49ers team for the Dallas Cowboys. In his press conference he said, "I foresee a lot of winning in Dallas." Considering their talent laden line-up with Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Jay Novacek, Troy Aikman, and a defense that made their offense look average, that was hardly going out on a limb. When he got there, he did not wait, he did not put off his expectations for playoff success. And he went out and delivered.

I foresee a lot of winning in Portland. I don't foresee it starting in 2010. I see it starting this year. A mere 50 wins and 7th or 8th seed with this roster, even in light of the teams they have to run down, would be a huge disappointment. The time for leaning on their youth is gone and the time to win is now.

Except the preseason, of course. That is just the time for making fun if somewhat questionable predictions and claims :-)

* I sincerely hope I am wrong. Clipper fans are among the most loyal, long-suffering fans in all of sports and deserve a winner. They got close a couple years ago before regressing. I would be ecstatic if Boom Dizzle and Marcus Camby proved to be the catalysts that turned the Clippers from second division D-League team into NBA Finals contenders. But I ain't holding my breath...

Is Steve Blake better suited to start for the Blazers than Jerryd Bayless?

It has become an article of faith among many Blazer fans that Jerryd Bayless will unseat the much-maligned Steve Blake from the starting point Guard position. The sterling play, dazzling moves, and potent scoring ability of Bayless will turn the starting 5 into an unstoppable machine that will blow opponents out of game after game as the Blazers steamroll their way through the League. There are several problems with this scenario.

First off, regardless of how much talent he may have, it should be remembered that Bayless is a Rookie. The transition from Pac-10 college ball to the pro level includes a steep learning curve. To be sure there are occasionally players who step in and make huge impacts but for the most part, teams that start Rookies at key positions such as Point Guard do not fare well.

This is not a knock on Bayless. I was pretty excited when General Manager Kevin Pritchard Pritch-slapped the Pacers* and acquired him as I was more excited about him than the undersized alternatives available at the Point coming out in the draft.

My excitement has not abated after seeing him dominate the summer league. Reports coming out of Blazers propaganda central have touted his speed, aggressiveness, defense, and will to win. He sounds like the complete package.

Bayless will bring an ability to slash, to score, and provide tenacious defense. He sounds like an exciting player with few weaknesses. There are really only two things keeping him from being the starter.

First, as a rookie it will take him some time to adjust to the League and team. LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Brandon Roy and Steve Blake all have experience playing together. They are already going to be adjusting to replacing the defensive stalwart but offensive liability of Joel Przybilla with the more mobile, more athletic Greg Oden who will demand touches down on the block. Changing point guards at the same time would mean 40% of their starters were changed and, if Travis Outlaw supplants Webster in the starting line-up the changeover would be 60%. That is far too much change for a team that perhaps overachieved a bit last season.

Second, and more importantly, Blake is a better fit in the starting line-up. Blake is not as flashy as Bayless, can't penetrate nearly as well, and is not the defensive force that Bayless provides. However, his skill set is a better fit with the other starters.

Blake is very good at distributing the ball and setting up the offense. He also provides a zone-busting, court-stretching outside presence. His 3 point shot is consistent and deadly meaning teams cannot collapse off him on the Blazer's interior forces of Aldridge and Oden. With Webster and Blake providing the deep threat and Aldridge and Oden standing by to take passes, the slashing game of Roy is taken to yet another level. It is a line-up that integrates very well.

Bayless is better at driving than being the downtown threat. In the starting unit he would not provide as much of an outside threat as Blake and would largely duplicate the role Roy already capably handles.

Meanwhile, the second unit needs a player like Bayless. Przybilla does a good job of controlling the boards and providing a defensive presence on the interior. Bayless will join Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw in providing scoring punch off the bench. When he comes back from knee injury, Channing Frye will add power to the front court and make the Blazers 10 deep. He will provide them with a bit of a post-up game and the ability to pop out for 15 foot jumpers off of the drives of Fernandez and Bayless.

While Outlaw will occasionally drive, by his own admission he has fallen in love with his jump shot. Fernandez has the ability to get to the rim but will not dominate the ball the way Roy will. Thus Bayless provides a key role on the second unit that helps turn them into a potentially explosive unit that has the flexibility to score inside or outside.

Thus Blake, while potentially not being as physically talented as Bayless still provides what the starting line-up needs and would be unable to be as effective with the second unit and Bayless gets the opportunity he needs to produce with the second line-up that he would not get in the starting line-up.

I will be the first to admit I have not been a big Steve Blake fan over the years. I wanted Jarrett Jack to start ahead of him. I wanted to see Sergio Rodriguez get more minutes at his expense. But the plain truth is, Blake provides what this starting unit needs and, while his numbers will never blow anyone away, taking him out of the line-up does not improve the team.

In another year or 2, assuming Bayless is the real deal and develops as expected, he will indeed take away Blake's job. But for this season expect to see Blake penciled into the starting line-up pretty close to 82 times.






Note: Despite the rise of the term "Pritch-slapped", I actually think the Pacers did rather well for themselves in this deal. At the cost of relatively unused Ike Diogu and a draft pick they acquired a proven solid backup point guard in Jarrett Jack, a promising Rookie, and throw in Josh McRoberts. They got what they needed and so did Portland which seems like a pretty good trade all around from where I sit. That has been the secret to Pritchard's success. The deals he offers make sense for his trading partners. They only end up looking so good because they always result in fitting Portland's master plan.

Analyzing the Blazer Draft; Kevin Pritchard, Genius?

Going into the draft the conventional wisdom was the Blazers needed a Small Forward and, more importantly, a Point Guard. They were targeting DJ Augustin and/or Russell Westbrook first and Joe Alexander. It was assumed the pick-up of the 27th pick was to help trade for one of those players. The need at Small Forward was accentuated when James Jones elected not to exercise his option.

Having watched GM Kevin Pritchard the last couple of years, few Blazer fans doubted he would get one of his guys. He always does. It was my personal hope he was targeting Westbrook as I am not a huge fan of under size point guards, though I must admit the excellent size Portland has at the other positions might mitigate those factors.

With the three targeted players gone and Jerryd Bayless off the board at 11 it looked like the master plan had fallen through...until the local affiliate, 95.5 The Game, broke the story that Bayless had been drafted for Portland. ESPN was 35 minutes behind on the story so there was some doubt but finally it was officially announced.

Portland traded Brandon Rush, Josh "McBob" McRoberts, and Jarret Jack for Bayless and Ike Diogu.

Part 2 of the plan had to do with Euro players the Blazers coveted, specifically Nicolas Batum. After he was taken off the board they picked up Darrell Arthur and Joey Dorsey...only to trade them for Batum.

In short, the Blazers reduced their bloated roster (Batum will most likely remain in France) by trading 2 current players (Jack and McRoberts) for essentially 1 player...it is an open question whether Diogu will remain on the roster...while preparing for the future even while improving in the present.

This was a brilliant draft. For the present they have upgraded their roster. In Bayless they have a potentially top 10 point guard. Portland revealed they actually had him rated as the 4th best player in the draft this year, somewhat higher than most teams. With Blake and Sergio Rodriguez still on the roster he will have time to develop, a move only accentuated when you consider that Brandon Roy essentially runs the point during crunch time. Bayless will get some playing time but will not be pressed to give produce too much too soon.

By unloading Jack the Blazers accomplish 2 more items on their agenda. There is a feeling in the organization that Rodriguez might be the point guard of the future. Jack was officially a point guard though in practice he played more like an under size shooting guard. By clearing him out the Blazers both clear up the logjam of combo guards that Jack represented and also clear up more playing time for Rodriguez. The move essentially turns this in to a make or break year for him.

That leaves the small forward position. Martell Webster was the starter last year and showed flashes. Early on it looked like he would be a 13 - 15 point scorer who provided great outside shooting. However, he struggled for large patches of the year and ended up under 11. It is important to remember, however, that Webster is still very young and is still improving.

There are strong indications, however, that Travis Outlaw is penciled in to start. That will leave Webster to come off the bench but both players will get plenty of minutes. It will leave the Blazers a bit more athletic and a bit less plagued with trying to find minutes for all the players they have on their roster. That is only helped by this draft.

Oddly, the draft ended up tightening up the roster. The Blazers are now stacked at least 2 deep at every position with players who will get meaningful minutes and have room to pull some maneuvers such as letting Bayless get time in the D-League. They have flexibility and options at every position and, perhaps best of all, the roster will tighten up even a bit more next season.

The contract of Diogu is up after this season. The contract of Raef LaFrentz expires after this season. With Jones opting out his contract is off the books. In other words, Portland will have room to maneuver.

Let's present a ridiculous scenario. Please note, I have not even a 1% belief this will ever happen bu it is the type of thing that is fun to fantasize about. The Blazers will have a huge amount of cap space in 2010. They will have a starting line-up including Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy with a talented supporting cast surrounding them including Webster for shooting and Outlaw for all-around play. Let's say some star player is looking for a new contract and is more interested in winning a championship or 5 than getting max money. He notices Portland can give him as much money as anyone but his own team...so LeBron James fills in at small forward. Championships would rain from the skies in bunches with that line-up. They would be young, talented, and dominant.

Yeah, I know, there is no chance he would come to a small market on the opposite coast with no night life. But that is the sort of thing that Blazer fans can dream about after this draft. We have a young, talented team that is positioned for a run at greatness and a dynasty. And with money to spare, 2010 looks like the year the Blazers will target players who might actually come and be the difference.