Introducing a new performance metric; the Rudy

During the 4th quarter of the Blazers victory over the Toronto Raptors there was a moment that drove Blazers broadcaster Mike Barrett absolutely crazy. Ex-Trailblazer Jerryd Bayless drained consecutive threes and hit four of them in about a four minute stretch of game time.

After the second one Barrett had his patented disgusted tone of voice as he said something along the lines of, "A 29% three-point shooter and he hits another one."

Improbably, after hitting two more without a miss, Bayless would have been surprised to hear Barrett lament, "A 28% shooter and he cannot miss." It is not often someone makes four consecutive shots and has their percentage decline.

Naturally, it had not. The issue was a player having a short stretch of game that reflected a statistical outlier. As a general rule if Bayless attempts three 3-pointers he will miss two of them. However, that is an average, not an ironclad statistical truth.

Bayless was illustrating a basic truth about basketball players. Averages reflect their results over time, not in any particular stretch. Who can forget Ray Allen hitting eight triples in Game 2 of the Finals last year? Or going oh for eight on the same shot the next night?

Neither result was truly representative of what could be expected but neither was either outside the realm of believability. Players like Allen, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, and so forth are stars because performances of high scoring outputs, usually on a relatively low volume of shots, are expected and taken as a matter of course.

When Carmelo Anthony scored 50 a few nights ago it was notable but not outside the realm of what we might expect from him. Anthony is a very capable scorer who puts up a large volume of shots. Scoring totals in the high 20s, 30s, 40s or even 50s are not infrequent. A night when the ball bounces just right a couple of times turns those high 20 point night into a high 30 point night, and if he averages out a night where he missed more shots than expected with a night he gets to the foul line and makes more shots than expected we see one of those magical nights where one player puts on a transcendent performance.

Blazer fans surely have been enjoying this with LaMarcus "LaMarvelous" Aldridge as he has recently exploded for a pair of 40 point games sandwiched around games tipping into the mid thirties.

It is becoming regular enough that as one individual recently noted, his career high 42 was "just" a "quiet 30 point night" until the last four minutes of the game.

I would not go so far as to say we expect big scoring outputs but I would say we are not surprised when superior offensive players put up big numbers.

What surprises us is when lesser players have those same explosions. For example, when Bayless, carrying a robust 9.5 points per game average, entered the fourth quarter with no points the other night, who expected he would finish the night with 18? It was a huge quarter.

Of course, any Raptor fan who watched the game might easily be justified in pointing to Rudy Fernandez and saying, "What about him?"

Fernandez had a tremendous first half Friday. He was everywhere. Tipping passes. Jumping into the lane to redirect drivers. Flying out to the perimeter to contest formerly open shots.

Knowledgeable Blazer fans are nodding their heads. We have seen those nights when Fernandez controls a game in every area except scoring. Recently, however, he has been scoring very well.

This is a refreshing change, as he was expected to contribute more than nine points a game. He has been in essentially a season-long slump interrupted by occasional brilliant outbursts.

Friday was such an outburst. In the first half he absolutely erupted, burying all eight shots he attempted en route to 23 first half points.

Raptor fans who are only casually aware of his playing style were probably shocked and devastated, expecting more of the same in the second half.

Unfortunately for Blazer fans, that is the difference between players such as Rudy and someone along the lines of a healthy Brandon Roy.

It is unreasonable and unlikely to see this sort of production continue over the course of a full game. Indeed, after taking and making eight shots in the first half (including six threes) he attempted but three shots in the second half and made none. His total at the end of the game matched his total at the end of the first half.

Now, on the one hand, his play in the first half was everything and more a Blazer fan could ever want. He was active, effective, and deadly. He more or less carried a Blazer team so lethargic they managed 3 turnovers in their first three possessions to a half-time lead.

He was so effective his contributions made up for Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Andre Miller combining for more turnovers than points in the first half. He was so effective a Raptor fan could be excused for assuming the game was over at the half time.

His second half was, from a scoring standpoint, so ineffective it is nigh on unbelievable the Blazers found a way to win.

But that is just the point. Good teams often have players like Fernandez. They plod along game after game providing their comfortable single digit points, a couple rebounds, maybe throw in an assist here and there.

Then there comes a game where they have one of those outliers, statistically speaking, where they score a weeks worth of points in a quarter, game, or half.

I am reminded of the night Martell Webster scored 26 points against the Jazz. Of those 26, 24 came in the third quarter. This was in a year in which he averaged 10.7 points per game. The Jazz never saw it coming and unexpectedly lost a game when a role player had a star-level night.

Most often when players like Fernandez, Webster, and players of their ilk have big nights, they come over the course of a single quarter or half.

A case in point would be the night DeJuan Blair of the Spurs had last Tuesday. He was absolutely dominant in the first half, leading the Spurs to a five point half time advantage with 14 points and eleven rebounds.

The rebounds were not unexpected. It is a pace any NBA fan might expect him to continue. He is a smart player who uses his knowledge and timing to grab large numbers of rebounds. The points were a bit unexpected, however, and it was reasonable to assume he would end the game with maybe 15 - 16 points.

As is so often the case with role players who have star quarters or halves, however, he was even less effective in the second half, dialing up a whopping zero points and collecting just one rebound.

Therein lies the problem, if there is one, with second line players taking on major and unexpected scoring loads in the first half.

If the stars are having an off night, how they respond to the outburst often determines the outcome of the game.

Talented, winning teams like the Spurs accept it for what it was...an unexpected and much appreciated bonus...and continue to run their offense to get their best players more attempts.

Teams with less stellar records seem to be more prone to trying to replicate the first half success in the second half, only to find that guy who typically scores ten a game is not going to have the same second half success as he did in the first half.

Unexpected success is difficult to maintain. But it sure is fun while it lasts.

There are some players who seem to specialize in it. Rudy Fernandez might be the king of impressive explosions followed by extreme disappearances. He seems to regularly have a double digit scoring quarter only to not score again for a game and a half.

So in honor of Rudy and with a nod of the head to the home of such great basketball terms as "The Voskuhl", "the Mario", etc., I propose we begin using the term, "a Rudy" to describe an outburst wherein a player scores double their average or more in a half, but is non-existent statistically speaking for the other portion of the game.

As a Blazer fan, let me say I hope to see many more Rudys from Rudy and his running buddy Patty Mills this year. They sure are fun to watch.

Are the Blazers more fun to watch without Brandon Roy?

There is an oft-cited saw among Blazer fans that, for many, has become an article of faith. It is repeated often and loudly.

The Blazers are more fun to watch without Brandon Roy.

This is typically followed by a recitation about how they have better movement, more fast breaks, share the ball more, and thus are more entertaining.

It is stated as a basic, unalterable, indisputable truth.

The Blazers are more fun to watch without Brandon Roy.

It is so ingrained in the psyche of many Blazer fans that on a local radio show, legendary broadcaster Bill Schonely attested to the truth of the statement, making it himself almost verbatim.

The Blazers are more fun to watch without Brandon Roy.

Seemingly everyone has bought into that statement.

Well...everyone but me, that is.

I see basketball differently than the guy next to me. I understand that, accept that and even embrace that truth. At the same time, it is an open question how anyone enjoys the game. There are probably as many ways to enjoy watching basketball as there are fans and that is a good thing.

Some people enjoy watching post players bang. Others like watching a transition-heavy game. Others appreciate the beauty of a jump shot while still others get very engaged in checking out defensive rotations, shot blocks, steals or other defensive endeavors. Still others enjoy a well-run pick and roll or pick and pop.

Some fans follow individual teams for the entire run of their fandom. Others follow specific players. Still others follow whichever team or teams are playing the best in any given year.

There are even some people, such as Basketbawful, who take a certain perverse and highly entertaining joy in watching the incompetent side of basketball.

All of these are valid ways to enjoy the game.

Arguably, those who prefer watching the Blazers play without Roy to watching them play with Roy have a surprising amount in common with the writer of Basketbawful.

As of January, the Blazers ranked 5th in shooting. That is...5th from being the WORST shooting team in the entire NBA.

They are 25th in shooting percentage. 25th in 3 point shooting percentage. They make up for it by letting the opponent out shoot them, being just over half a rebound per game better, and having the third fewest possessions per game of any team in the league. (Admittedly these are not sorted pre-and post Roy. They were low in most categories before he shut it down and have not markedly raised them.)

In fairness to one defense against the rather twist able "pace" ranking, they do have several long possessions due to garnering numerous offensive rebounds. Rebounds, I might add, that are available due to their pathetic shooting.

The Blazers, as constructed without Brandon roy in the line-up, center around LaMarcus Aldridge on the block and a number of streak shooters.

When he gets hot Wesley Matthews has shown he is capable of making seven consecutive threes. When he is cold he will miss the same number. The same holds true for his mid-range shooting.

The same could be said of Patty Mills, Rudy Fernandez, or Nicolas Batum. Andre Miller is traditionally not going to shoot a high percentage.

They have no mid-range or outside shooter who consistently shoots a decent percentage night in and night out where the 1-for-15 debacles are unusual rather than something you expect at least once every two or three games.

The Blazer shooting is so abysmal that Real GM posited they are in fact a lottery team as opposed to a playoff team.

With that said, watching an under talented team work extremely hard to defeat more talented teams can be very entertaining. There is certainly a satisfaction to be garnered in watching a team fight and scratch and claw to snatch a victory away from a team that deserved to win.

I would key in on the nearly insignificant article in that sentence, "a", when considering how much fun it is to watch the Blazers currently.

I personally find more satisfaction in watching a game where the players are able to put the ball in the basket relatively often. I find far more enjoyment in watching a game where both teams show enough offensive skills that a three possession string of baskets does not feel like an anomaly.

The current Blazer team does provide some pleasure to watch. They work hard, they have some excellent defensive stretches, some incredible streaks of shooting, and LaMarcus Aldridge is changing his game in front of our eyes.

This season, they even have managed a better record without Roy than with to the tune of 14-8 without Roy and only 11-13 with the shell of Roy we saw on the floor this year.

Overall, however, their record without Roy is much worse. Even the majority of those saying the Blazers are more fun to watch without Roy acknowledge the team will never escape the first round without Roy.

Thus, in the current construction of the team we see a poor-shooting, mediocre team that consistently has long scoring droughts.

The argument then becomes that this team which shoots over 2% worse than last season, scores nearly 3 fewer points, and wins fewer games than they did last season with Roy in the line-up and healthy is more fun to watch without Brandon Roy.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. I just do not buy it.

Personally, I would much rather watch an talented player who scores efficiently, has averaged 4.9 assists per game for his career, and leads his teams to wins than watch a team that is out-talented more often than not.

It does not mean I find other people wrong when they say "The Blazers are more fun to watch without Brandon Roy". They are more than entitled to enjoy the game their way.

But it does mean that I struggle to understand it. This edition of the team, sans Roy, has all the hallmarks of a mediocre team playing mediocre basketball, unlike the team that had a real shot to advance to the second round two years ago with a healthy Roy.

An NBA Fan; Fond memories, Great performances, and Legends Passed

Maurice Lucas had more or less moved on from the Blazers by the time I became what i would call an "aware" fan.

I was too young when the Blazers won their only Championship to fully comprehend what was going on. I knew the names and felt the excitement, but was not yet a basketball fan.

As I grew older and got heavily involved in every aspect of basketball, I grew to know the players and appreciate what a special moment 76-77 had been.

Men like my Dad who were at best casual fans had been swept up in the momentum and would talk about the passing of Bill Walton, the intimidation of Maurice Lucas, the speed of Johnny Davis and so forth.

By the time the tremendous Portland teams of the late 80s and early 90s rolled around, I knew a great deal about the Blazers and, unlike my parents and their friends, was passionate about the game.

Few and far between were the games I got to attend, but in those few, I got to see some spectacular games. I was there the night Larry Bird, bad back and all, closing in on the end of his career, reminded us all why he was Larry legend, dropping 49 on the Blazers including a ridiculous, getting hammered trey to send it into overtime.


I remember buying a family four-pack, going to watch the Suns with my Dad, my best friend, and one of my brothers, Dad leaving to feed the parking meter while the rest of us saw Arvydas Sabonis, Tom Chambers and Rex Chapman hit stupendous shots to extend the game again and again.

There is something about seeing a spectacular performance or moment that makes sports worthwhile.

On the night the Blazers honored the memory of Maurice Lucas, early on it seemed we were in the presence of the makings of such a moment, of a memorable gem of a game.

LaMarcus Aldridge was firing early and often. He scored in the post. He scored on his patented mid-range jumper. He scored on alley-oops.

And then the Blazers forgot he was on the team, almost completely freezing him out for nearly three quarters.


And despite sometimes stifling, always harassing defense, Kevin Durant showed how he will leave millions of NBA fans with some great memories, including one moment when he scored from behind the basket against a triple team.

There was a time that shot and the overtime thriller played between the Trailblazers and their Northwest rivals, the Seattle Supersonics, would have been one of those special moments for many fans.

And, one might argue, even as what is really not a rivalry game between the Oklahoma City

Thunder and the Blazers was taking place, it has the foundations of a rivalry between two franchises that will long be tied together via both the Greg Oden or Kevin Durant draft as well as their status as exciting young, up and coming, hope to soon be contenders teams.

The thing is, great moments are not only had between classic rivals. To the best of my knowledge Portland and Boston have no reason to be part of any sort of rivalry...but that did not take away from my enjoyment of Bird going all Larry Bird on them.

And while Portland and Oklahoma City fans might not argue about which city has more rain or more expensive gourmet coffee, they can argue over who is better, Nicolas Batuum or Thabo Sefolosho....and enjoy the next few years of watching Brandon Roy and Kevin Durant launch some spectacular games at the other team.

Which brings me back to the Lucas thing. It is great that the Blazers will wear his #20 all year. It was a nice moment after the moment of silence when many of us performed the "Lllluuuuuukkkkkeeee" chant without the later prompting from announcer Mark Mason.

But looking around it was also obvious to me that for the majority of the crowd, the memories of Lucas were handed down, not our own. Our memories are of seeing Kevin Duckworth return to the court for game seven, of seeing Buck Williams battle Karl Malone, of Clyde Drexler launching those scud missiles that passed for three point attempts and throwing down dunks.

And for the new generation the special moments are building with things like the Marcus Camby chant from last year, the acrobatic teardrop runners of Armon Johnson, the Roy last-second heroics.

And ultimately, that is what makes being a fan not just worthwhile, but something special. Yes, it would have been great to see Portland hold on and win a game they had in hand for most of the night.

But for Thunder fans, how long will they be talking about some of those tough, heavily contested threes Durant hit to keep their early season from turning into a disaster in a game they desperately needed against a division rival?

It was a special night with some great moments that reminded me why it is cool to be a basketball fan.

Go Away, Rich Cho; on the nature of fandom

Growing up one constant was listening to "the Schonz", Bill Schonely, call Blazer games on the radio.

Players like Jim Paxson were celebrated not for their stunning talent but because they were Blazers, drafted and developed by the team. Anyone who followed Paxson's career know he was a decent but not spectacular guard...but Schonz loved him anyway.

When the Blazers made their big run in the late 80s/early 90s, they had a fount of home-grown players; Clyde Drexler, Jerome Kersey, Terry Porter, Cliff Robinson and Kevin Duckworth were not only the bulk of the line-up, they were drafted or acquired extremely early in their careers by the blazers and felt like they had never been in another organization.

Admittedly Buck Williams was a key member of those teams and I am sure Nets fans still think of him as theirs, and rightfully so.

But most of the team was acquired on or around draft day.

That is what used to make the recent talented editions of the Blazers exciting. Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, Nicolas Batuum, Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham were all acquired on draft day, some via draft and others by trade.

Steve Blake and Joel Przybilla made conscious choices to come to Portland for less money and felt like they were part of the organization.

Unfortunately, basketball is a business. Sometimes, it is possible to get lost in fandom and forget that.

Thus Drexler, Porter, Kersey, Robinson moved on and finished their careers elsewhere after the run was over.

And now, the run I was looking forward to watching has taken yet another blow.

It started with the trade of Blake and Outlaw for Marcus Camby. While it filled a need, it started a decline in my interest.

As talented as Andre Miller and Camby are...they are mercenaries. Hired guns. Guys with no ties to the team or my heart.

Yes, okay...so all players are really mercenaries. It is doubtful many of them would show up for these games if they were not getting ridiculously overpaid to play a game for a living. bear with me.

Now Webster is gone and Bayless has been sent packing, Fernandez may be on his way out...bit by bit, the little things that make this "my" team are moving on.

It is interesting that such a minor trade...Bayless for a draft pick...would bother me. His presence or the lack thereof will not make or break the Blazer season from the standpoint of victory totals. He is a nice second line player with potential to be a Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson type who can spark the second unit.

The thing is...if Ido not care about the players I am watching, Portland is NOT the team I would choose to watch.

I vastly prefer 120 to 115 track meets to the 80 possession grind games the Blazers put on the floor. I root for them because of A) proximity and B) likable players.

Compare that to the pseudo-local Seattle Seahawks or Seattle Mariners. They have proximity..but rotate players so quickly that I can name maybe 2 starters on either team. They do not have players I have affinity for and play boring brands of ball. As a result, my entertainment dollars are not exercised in going to their games.

When it comes to basketball, if I were to root for a team based on style it would be teams like the Suns, Warriors, and Knicks I would probably have jerseys for.

Well, not the Knicks...I cannot remember the last time I rooted for anything about New York. Not even a fast-paced style could change that.

The point is, if my reasons for rooting for the local team is more due to affinity for the players than how they play the game, then am I obligated to stop rooting for them when those players move on?

A lot of Blazer fans have an inexplicable, misinformed hatred for LaMarcus Aldridge and are constantly coming up with trades to improve the Blazers that have to do with moving him for "upgrades" with less talent and less productivity. This I do not understand.

It is not as if 17 and 8power forwards are falling out of the sky, nor is it as if the Blazers get more likable by trading a stretch forward who has never worn any other pro uniform along with more players for a head case like A'mare Stoudemire as I often saw suggested last season.

If I had my druthers, there would be no more moves for the Blazers. I despised the Fabricio Oberta signing. Yes, they are thin up front. But bringing him in does two things.

One, it adds a marginally talented import to the roster who again will make no positive impact on number of wins they pull in.

Two, it takes yet another step towards having retreads and thus makes the roster less home grown and more about "follow us because the team name is Blazer, not because you have built any attachment to the players".

I can call to mind great moments from so many of the players who have been sent packing; the Sergio Rodriguez to Fernandez alley-oops, the Outlaw game winning shot against Memphis that started the Blazers on the path to greatness, the record setting assists in a quarter for Blake, Bayless taking over when Roy went down.

While Miller and Camby have had memorable moments...Miller's dunk against Denver, his 52 against...was it Dallas? and Camby getting the "Marc-us Cam-by" chant after coming over from the farm club in Los Angeles...those moments are few and far between.

They are not organic.

All the sending off of familiar players in favor of short-term rentals has me far from excited about the season.

It should be a very good season, with 55+ wins and a run at the Western Conference Championship as the low end of where they should go. It starts Tuesday.

And this is only the second piece I have written about them in four months.

Back before the players I liked started getting sent packing, I would write four part previews of the season. Now I would rather write about teams I am starting to like more than the one I grew up rooting for.

So far Rich Cho has made two moves; signing Oberta and trading Bayless. I hate both moves.

They bring about the question; if he does make a "big move", like the once rumored Batum/Oden/Bayless for Chris Paul...a pipe dream many Blazer fans were sure was going to happen...I would pretty much be done with them.

Let us watch the players we have some history with. If it is just about watching winning teams, we would all be Laker or Heat fans. If it was about style, we would be watching the Suns.

It needs to be about more than that. Enough tinkering. Release Oberta and call it a day. Your slogan is "Rip City United". How about showing some loyalty if you expect us to unite with you?

Apathetic Blazermania

As the various packets that come with being a season ticket holder arrive in staggered increments, there has been a very confusing emotion attached.

Apathy.

This is rather stunning. Usually I am quite juiced about the forthcoming season. I am chatting about prospects, arguing over how many wins, win margin, which players will improve, and reliving past glory moments.

This year...instead I am wondering if I should sell a quarter season, a half season, or the entire package. Not only am I counting down the days until the first pre-season game, I am actually wondering if I want to go to any games.

With a curious reaction like that, I sat down to work through what the problem is.

I still love basketball. I like to play it, watch it, discuss it, think about it, read about it. I spend time at many of the hot-spots...True Hoop, Basketbawful, Bleacher Report, Blazers Edge, Hoop World, and numerous others I could list.

But I do not currently love BLAZER basketball.

It is singularly odd because they are arguably the best team they have been since the late 80s/early 90s glory days of Clyde the Glide Dexler, Terry Porter, Jerome Kersey, Kevin Duckworth, and Buck Williams.

The optimist in Blazer fan believes Greg Oden will stay healthy, LaMarcus Aldridge will take a step forward, Brandon Roy will be Brandon smurfing Roy, and the wins will pile up in rapid fashion.

I believe anything short of 56 wins or more, a Division Title, and a trip to a minimum of the conference series would be disappointing considering the talent level.

The problem is...I just do not care.

The team I had grown to love has been dismantled slowly but surely.

The first to go was Travis Outlaw. That one hurt.

Yes, I am well aware of the flaws Blazer fans over-emphasize.

I am also aware that he was drafted by Portland, we watched him develop, and he hit arguably the most important shot of the last three years when his buzzer beater against Memphis helped the young team realize they could overcome adversity.

While Steve Blake was not drafted by Portland, he fit the team and culture well and was instrumental to the turnaround. He also took less money to come to Portland because he liked the team.

Bringing in guys like Marcus Camby and Wesley Matthews unarguably make the team better and with Oden and Camby, fan favorite and long-time stalwart Joel Przybilla is admittedly dispensable from a basketball standpoint.

The problem is...the character of the team has changed.

Now, instead of being excited about Blazer draft-day acquisitions and treasured veterans who carried the team through their growing pains, we are looking at "import-heavy" teams.

It changes my interest level.

I am not a blind Blazer fan. The organization holds a certain portion of my loyalty, but so too do the players.

It does bother me how the Rudy Fernandez situation is playing out.

It bothers me that guys like Outlaw, Blake and Przybilla are not merely considered dispensable but are basically run out of town in the eyes of some Blazer fans.

It bothers me all the negativity thrown at LaMarcus Aldridge because he plays the new millennium style of game, with a great mid-range game and developing post game instead of being the new Karl Malone...a player, by the way, I always despised for his substitution of strength and charging without getting called for it in place of skill.

It bothers me that new General Manager Rich Cho is talking about another "major move" which presumably would mean Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless or some rumors even say Oden would depart in favor of another import.

Now, on the one hand, as a Blazer fan, I am happy about seeing the team improve.

On the other hand, they are no longer as compelling a story in my opinion.

Instead of watching a two to three year period of acquiring young, talented players with the expectation of watching them play together for a decade, now we have a mish-mash of some of those players, some guys brought in for just a year or two, and a lack of continuity.

The net result is the more they change the team...the less I like it.

And the end result is that as the season approaches, my customary excitement and thrill-expectation meters are completely gone, only to be replaced by one thing.

Apathy.

If I stay lazy and fail to list the tickets, I will probably go the games. I will almost assuredly even enjoy them.

But it will be the enjoyment of going to a movie that turns out to be a serviceable comedy rather than a memorable laugh-inducer, in box office terms.

That makes me sad.

It also makes me wonder...how can a team with rising expectations bring lowered anticipation?

Brandon Roy: The Kevin Duckworth moment of the current Blazers Generation

Preface: For Portland Trailblazer fans like me the 2009-10 season started with tremendous optimism. Every season we were told to lower our expectations, that the team was too young and inexperienced to make much progress. Yet season after season the team added double digit totals to the win column. They made it to the playoffs last year. They even won a couple games in the playoffs.

But then the season got off to a rugged start. Nicolas Batum went down to injury. No problem, Martell Webster is the better offensive player, and his defense has improved so we all thought it was a minor set-back. Greg Oden moved into the starting line-up and Andre Miller arrived.

Soon we had three new starters in the line-up with Oden, Webster and Miller replacing Joel Przybilla, Batum, and Steve Blake. Nobody doubted it was an overall talent upgrade, but all the new faces and roles had the team struggling.

Ugly home losses to teams like the Grizzlies, where the home team got wrecked by a massive 21-0 run, had us wondering how long it would take for this team to gel. Then, just as they started coming around, players started to go down.

Key 4th quarter performer Travis Outlaw went down. Oden went down. Przybilla went down. Rudy Fernandez went down. LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy both missed games.

Somehow, the Blazers kept chugging along, winning plenty and losing more than we expected in the preseason. Everyone stepped up from time to time. Eventually, a trade was made to bring Marcus Camby to the Blazers for Outlaw and Blake, both shoring up the center position and lightening what would have been a major playing time crunch.

The Blazers closed the season strong, achieving the 6th seed...lower than it would have been if they were healthy, but six slots higher than it should have been. We as fans were pumped, excited, ready to win a series against a team that many NBA fans still believe is soft and therefore exploitable in the Phoenix Suns.

As an aside...the Suns have changed. Beware, whoever faces them in the second round...these are not your Daddys' Suns.

We were ready for this series to start.

Sure enough, even with Roy out for at least the first round of the playoffs, the Blazers came out in game one and played a classic Blazers game. Tough, inspired defense, bit step-up games from second-line players like Batum and Webster, and a will-not-quit attitude. This was the team that over achieved by over a dozen games.

But then something happened. The new Suns attitude reared its ugly head. They came out in game two and kicked the Blazers' teeth in, dominating them in every phase of the game. No problem. I actually had predicted it at work (though to be fair, my exact statement was, "Am I the only one who thinks the Suns are going to blow us out by 20?" If I had said 30, it would have been impressive).

That was not a big deal. The Blazers won their one game in Phoenix. Everything was set up perfect. Portland would win a close-fought game three, lose game four, then take games five and six to score the upset.

Except the Suns did not realize that was the plan. What they did to Portland in game three bordered on felonious assault. They not only kicked in the Blazers teeth, they added a few groin shots as the Blazers lay on the ground wondering what hit them. The Suns came into the Rose Garden and showed everyone the late-season road blow-out wins in Utah and Denver were n flukes, that they are a team that can not only win any time, any place, against any team, they can win those games handily.

The atmosphere leading into game four was somber. The series score might be only two games to one, but Blazer fans were wondering not just if they would not win another game, but if they would avoid getting blown out two more times.

Rewind:
1990: Kevin Duckworth, the Blazers' center, broke his hand in the first round against the Mavericks and was unavailable to the Blazers for Game 7 against the Spurs and their amazing David Robinson. Then, with everyone on the floor warming up, the fans were treated to a surprise and one of the greatest moments for fans...the unexpected entry of Duck.

Just thinking of that moment brings chills. It is the Blazers' version of Walt Frazier for the Knicks.

The Pre-game.
My friend and I get to the game about 25 minutes early, settle into our seats. Their is a subdued atmosphere to the place. It is almost as Blazer fans have been completely demoralized by the back to back spankings the Suns laid on us.

13:00 to game time.
The familiar music hits. The Blazers are about to be shown getting ready to leave their locker room for the playing surface. We casually glance at the Jumbotron as it pans over the Blazers...and suddenly the mood, the atmosphere, everything changes. The panning stops on Brandon Roy. And he is not wearing a suit...he is wearing warm ups.

Really? Can it be? Is there any chance he could...play? No way...no way...not possible...what the...the scoreboard now shows Fernandez on the bench and Roy starting!

The Garden is maybe a third full when they hit the floor for warm-ups, but suddenly the crowd is on its feet, applauding the players...well, okay, applauding the unbelievable, unforeseen entrance of Roy in playing gear.

Now there is energy in the building. Now we know he might play. And if he plays, then we win. Not might win. Not will keep it close. We win.

It is that feeling that defines why Roy is great. If you look at his numbers for the game, they were anything but phenomenal. 10 points on 10 shots is pedestrian. But his presence, that changed everything. It changed the way the game was played.

In a post-game interview, Aldridge was asked what it changed and you could hear the smile in his voice as he said, "He came in the game and I got the first open shot I have had all series."


A lot of Blazer fans have been down on Aldridge because defense like that pictured above has made his numbers minuscule. Personally, I think a lot of the blame goes to guys like Fernandez who have not made themselves available for his passes and/or have not made their shots. If three guys are guarding one, two guys should be open.

Be that as it may, with Roy back in the line-up, Blazer fans had hope. And when he entered the game for the first time, suddenly you just knew it was going to be a real series.



The Suns are still the favorites. They have two games left at home, the Blazers just one. But this was a moment worthy of memory.

I was not there when Duck made his unexpected return, but the impact that moment had on those great Blazer teams of the late 80s and early 90s went far beyond his modest stat-line against the Admiral.

Roy coming back from surgery in eight days to life the spirits and morale of an entire organization and sports town will have the same effect.

Obviously I hope the Blazer pull off the improbable and replicate the '77 run, though I more reasonably expect them to be done long before the finals. But the heart shown by Roy, the mind-set to come out and play...that will be there when this team is healed and whole and holding up the trophy a few times.

Thank you, Mr. Roy, for giving me my own Duckworth moment.

Can half a team defeat the Suns? Check out the Blazers

The Phoenix Suns are prohibitive favorites to defeat the Portland Trailblazers in the first round of the playoffs.

Lets get that off our chest first thing. The players who will be on the floor throughout the series have produced more effectively and more cohesively for the Suns than the Blazers.

In Amar'e Stoudemire and Steve Nash they have the two best players who will appear on the court. In Grant Hill and Jason Richardson they have guys who are above average secondary players that can light up a score sheet.

In Channing Frye, Louis Amundsen, Leandro Barbossa and Jared Dudley they have guys who know their roles and take pride in them.

The bottom line is the Suns record is no accident. They got the three seed on the last day of the season, but they put themselves in a position to get that seed by winning tough, important games in tough situations like Utah on the road when both teams were fighting for high seeding.

Any Blazer fan who looks at this series as anything other than a very probably second consecutive first round exit is delusional.

At the same time, any Blazer fan who does not have at least some hope that the upset is likely enough to induce them to purchase tickets for the playoffs and have a fair amount of optimism they will get to see the Blazers in Game 6 has not been paying attention.

The NBA season is a learning experience. It takes time for players, no matter how talented, to learn to play together. This was evidenced early in the season when a Blazer team that was more talented than last seasons' 54 win edition was struggling, giving up bad losses on their home floor.

20 games in, I had this to say:

Yet 20 games into the season Portland has already lost four home games, including a blow-out loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, has trailed for 11 consecutive quarters, and worse yet, looks like they are a team that does not care. What happened?

Part of the answer was they were struggling to adapt to a different playing style, to a different mix of players on the floor.

Entering the playoffs, that is happening again. The addition of Marcus Camby turned Portland into a better team. The loss of Brandon Roy makes them worse...but presents an opportunity.

Lest anyone misunderstand what comes next, let's get this out there. The Trailblazers with Brandon Roy are vastly better than the Blazers without Brandon Roy.

With that said, arguably the best line-up the Blazers currently possess does not necessarily include Roy. Camby, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster and Andre Miller is a team that can give any team in the NBA fits.

Defensively, they are quick, agile, aggressive, and interchangeable. Camby calls sets, has the agility and willingness to cover everything from a post-up center down to brief periods of at least contesting the small, quick guards. Under his tutelage, Aldridge is showing flashes of being a superior defender who plays off the Camby style and has, with the exception of the shot-blocking, the same set of capabilities, though not at the same level.

Batum and Webster both get up on their man, switch with little to no drop-off, and this season have shown a consistent dedication to defense.

This unit is capable of putting out stretches of defensive coverage that can hold even explosive offensive teams to sub-20 quarters or multiple minute stretches of scorelessness. Nor are they hapless offensively.

Blazer fans regularly label Aldridge as soft because he does not post up as often as they would like. I reject that assessment. He knows his strengths, plays to them, and has been working at his post game, showing improvement from season to season, month to month, and at times game to game.

Last year, I would have said trying to run the offense through him against Stoudemire would be a disaster. This season, he has improved to the point where it is something Portland can do. Aldridge has improved to the point where he commands the double team which opens up Webster and Batum to stretch the defense with their very capable outside shooting.

The problem is, that line-up cannot play 48 minutes. So what are the Suns weaknesses the Blazers can exploit over the course of the game?

Frye, Amundson, Dragic and Dudley. Please note; I have respect for their games. I am a big Channing Frye guy to the point where I encourage you to check out his blog. I want him to tear it up against every team except Portland.

But they are the weak link for the Suns. They do not have a history of producing in the playoffs. (The cynic might point out Hill has as many second round appearances as this Blazer team, but I have too much respect for his game and do not think that is his fault.)

They are exploitable. Dudley and Amundson are not the type of players who dominate a game so much as fill a role. Those roles can be stifled which creates an opportunity for the Blazers to steal a game here and there. When they are going good, they make the Suns great if not unbeatable, but they are less likely to show greatness game after game after game like Stoudemire, Nash, Richardson, Hill and Barbosa.

Of course, the problem for the Blazers is that all the negatives I just pointed out about the Suns point to some pretty important guys for the Blazers; Batum, Webster, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless...

All of which means the Blazer need several things to break right in order to pull off the upset.

Aldridge needs to have the oft-cited "breakout series" where he dials up 25+ points a night, as does Miller. The second tier guys like Batum, Webster, Bayless and Fernandez need to be the players they are in flashes rather than the players they are that keep them fighting for time and recognition.

Webster, Fernandez and Batum in particular are vital. These are three guys who, when hitting their shots, make the Blazers nearly unbeatable when combined with the stifling defense the Blazer line-up referenced above is capable of playing. When they are engaged in the game, hitting their shots, and involved there is no team in the NBA that they are not capable of beating or even blowing out.

That defines the series. Not necessarily the play of Nash, Stoudemire, Richardson, Hill, Aldridge and Miller...but the play of guys like Frye and Fernandez.

If the second tier players of one team are more consistent than the production seen by the other, that decides the series.

As a Blazer fan, I dearly want the upset. I want to see the Blazer defense slow the Suns, guys like Webster to have those scoring explosions we sporadically see, and the Blazers squeeze into the second round.

They have the talent to do it. they have the will.

At the end of the day, whichever team wins this series is the one I want to see in the NBA Finals. I am fully aware it is a long-shot for the Blazers. I am just grateful that they have a team talented enough that, even if it is unlikely, it is at least a remote, remote, remote possibility.

I hope this series goes seven games in a call-back to the classic battles of the Kevin Johnson/Dan Majerle Suns verse the Clyde Drexler/Terry Porter Blazers. I want to see 7 games decided in the final minute with clutch shots from unlikely players. I want to see the upset.

The recipe for the Blazers is simple. Pound the ball inside to Aldridge and play off the double teams to generate open looks which their role players must convert. Dominate the boards, play stifling defense, and hope Nash, Stoudemire, Richardson and Hill forget that is who they are and play like mortals.

Good luck and good health to both teams.

Defending the Enemy; Don Nelson Was Right

Throughout his long and very successful career Don Nelson has received a lot of criticism from time to time. Much of it has been directed at his unorthodox use of smaller line-ups. Some has been directed at him for never winning a title.

This past Wednesday, Blazer fans directed a lot of criticism at him for wanting to put Devean George back into the game.

In many ways, it was a silly argument.

Portland had long demonstrated that winning this game was of at best tertiary importance...their starting line-up was primarily sick, injured, or playing a modest nine minutes (except Nicolas Batum who got a lot of run.)

At one point Portland had a whopping four years of NBA experience on the floor; Rudy Fernandez with two years and Nicolas Batum with another two. Joining them on the floor were rookies Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, and Patty Mills.

If Portland was not taking the game serious, why should Nelson?

It is to his credit that he did take the game serious. More important, he took the health of his players serious.

When Devean George fouled out, he (rightfully) argued that it was dangerous to the health of his bench players to insert them.

He whined. He begged. He pleaded. He had the veins on his neck popping out as he yelled at the referees.

He ignored the raucous and prolonged booing of the crowd. He ignored the rather sarcastic music selections played by the Rose Garden sound crew. He ignored the insistence of the referees. And he did it all for the right reason.

He was trying to protect his players.

It was no different than Coach McMillan yanking Marcus Camby from the line-up moments before tip-off or playing Andre Miller just nine minutes...enough to maintain his consecutive game streak, no time for injury. No different than him riding players like Dante Cunningham, Jeff Pendergraph, Patty Mills, and Travis Diener for heavy minutes in a game that was meaningless yet undecided.

Wait...yes, it was different. It was easy to tell that Chris Hunter could barely walk. Ronnie Turiaf looked better...but not much. And any but the most casual fan knows Anthony Morrow is far too talented not to use unless he is legitimately injured.

Nelson was doing what more coaches should do. He was trying to protect the health of his players.

I am going to also somewhat defend the referees in this situation, too. They were bound by rule to do what they did. Fair enough, one could...and perhaps should...that this would have been a fine time to bend the rules and not make the ridiculous three foul sequence take place. But that is neither here nor there.

What the referees did that I appreciated is they did not assess Nelson technical fouls for his arguing. This was not an objection to the officiating or showing them up. This was a man fighting hard not to win a game but to protect his players.

I am not going to lie. Meaningless though the game may have been in the standings, I still wanted to see a Blazers victory.

But not at the cost of a serious injury to another team's player.

So here is hoping the fans give credit where credit is due. Love him or hate him, people should recognize that Don Nelson is a guy who genuinely, legitimately cares about his players. And that is something worthy of a cheer.

Chris Bosh or LaMarcus Aldridge; Not who is better, but who really fits?

In response to a recent post explaining why I elected not to renew my season tickets largely due to the trade of Travis Outlaw, I was asked what I thought of the LaMarcus Aldridge for Chris Bosh trade rumors.

In some respects, it is an intriguing question and one that is difficult for me to be objective about. I freely admit to being a huge LaMarcus Aldridge mark. I am tired of the oft-cited and remarkably inept criticisms that Aldridge is "soft", that his post-up game is not good enough, that he relies too much on his jump shot, that his defense is inadequate and his rebounding borderline incompetent.

I also recognize the skill Bosh brings to the table. There is a lot to compare in their games.

Both players have silky smooth mid-range jumpers. Inside his range, I actually think Bosh is the superior shooter, though that is merely anecdotal evidence. Due to his playing in Toronto, I have only ever seen a handful of his games and as a result I must base most of my opinion on statistics, which often lie.

Based on statistics the team of Tom Chambers, Xavier McDaniel and Dale Ellis was awesome when in truth, they scored a lot but gave up a lot of points too. Their scoring numbers say nothing about their individual or team defense, their cohesiveness, or those little things teammates do to improve each other.

So I must base my analysis of Bosh on the games I have seen live in Portland for the most part.

Bosh is a genuine pleasure to watch in warm-ups. His jumper is silky smooth and sometimes you wonder if he will ever even hit the rim. Shot after shot brings that delicious snap of the net as the ball comes through on the precise trajectory to demonstrate the purity of a perfect shot.

Step-back, side-shuffle, face-up. Shot after shot after shot goes swish, swish, swish. His movement is crisp, his motions sure and effortless. He is a skilled player indeed, and this does not change when the game starts.

If a defender gives him the slightest space he rises up and two points go up on the board for the Raptors. Crowd him and he puts the ball on the floor and gets inside. I have rarely seen him do back to the basket post-up moves, but that does not say he is not a post player. I actually cannot honestly answer that question due to the paucity of coverage the Raptors get in Portland. I can say I have repeatedly seen him face up his man, get to the rim and finish strong.

On defense, Bosh appears to me to be better than average. He is strong enough to avoid getting run down, quick enough to help out when his guards get beat, and is an excellent rebounder. He has a very well-rounded game and would be an instant upgrade to almost any team that acquired him. You can count on two fingers the number of power forwards who are anywhere near his production and skill level.

Aldridge, meanwhile, has slightly better range than Bosh and, while not as high a percentage shooter, is still very good. He does have a post -game which is oft-maligned, and there is some merit to that. Of course, part of the problem with the criticism is it represents a poor analysis of Aldridge's game.

He is still developing his post play and, while it has shown vast improvement in the last couple of years, it is not yet the strength of his game. There are certain defenders against whom Aldridge simply has not yet been able to develop an effective move against. He recognizes this and, instead of continuing to put himself in a bad match-up, he drifts out to the perimeter where he has the advantage.

Not continuing to force up tough, contested shots in bad situations is an intelligent basketball play. Unfortunately, too many fans give the knee-jerk "Aldridge is soft" answer. I have a suggestion to those fans. Stick a sock in it and watch his game.

Aldridge plays down low against the big guys and, while his rebounding numbers are not huge, take a look at the timing and manner of them. Game after game I watch him come away with key rebounds whenre seven, eight, maybe nine guys are clustered inside the key trying to get the board and somehow Aldridge rips down what I like to call "man-boards".

He is not afraid to match up with players like Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and so forth night after night. He works hard, stays in the team concept, and does his job.

I genuinely believe part of the reason his rebound numbers are quote "low" is due to the guys next to him. Joel Przybilla, Greg Oden and Marcus Camby are all superior rebounders. An example would come from the Portland-Washington game of March 19th, 2010.

There were precisely 100 available non-free throw rebounds available. Camby came away with 19 of those, a staggering number that means nearly one of five times there was a ball caroming off the rim, Camby snagged it.

Assuming teams will garner approximately one half of the available rebounds and each player will contribute, that means the remaining nine players have roughly thirty rebounds to share among themselves. Guards are generally good for two to three apiece and the Blazers run four. Forwards should get roughly four to five apiece in the Portland system, and the Blazers essentially have three forwards other than Aldridge, so there are roughly forty-nine of the rebounds available accounted for. That is without Aldridge.

Naturally, part of the statistical analysis is average, and on any given night a guy who averages five boards might go without while a guy who averages two might get seven.

Aldridge checks in at a fairly steady seven to eight a night. He seldom has less, but often has more such as the dozen he tallied against the Wizards.

Even more notably, when the Blazers were starting Methuselah... err, Juwan Howard at center, or even rookie Jeff "Li'l Bit" Pendergraph, Aldridge was dialing up double digit boards seemingly every night.

His deflated rebound numbers are partially a product of the players he plays with is the short form of the statement I am making.

As Aldridge's biggest defender, I also think his defense is unfairly maligned. I am not nervous when he gets caught on the perimeter against smaller, quick players because he is quick enough, agile enough, and long enough to contest their shots. Of course, sometimes they score because that is what the Chris Pauls and Tony Parkers of the NBA world do...they score against bad defense, average defense, and good defense.

Aldridge is at his best coming off his man to contest a shot, but he is also a decent man to man defender. He is often accused of lacking intensity, and this is accurate. He also likes to slap at the ball low a bit much for my liking, but he also pokes away a lot of balls.

He is definitely not an All-NBA defender, but he is improving every year.

Off the court, there is little to complain about for either player. In many ways, Bosh has certain advantages in that regard. Chris Bosh has a great sense of humor, though it is flawed...he seems to find Will Ferrell funny despite stuff like Semi-Pro. 3

Bosh is also noted for his work in the community and has a lot going for him as a potential player.

Let me emphasize again that I am a huge Aldridge player and, since everyone else jumped on the Roy bandwagon, he is probably my absolute favorite player.

With that said, I believe Bosh is the superior overall player. Bosh is better defensively and offensively, he seems to get along with his teammates better than Aldridge, who is oft criticized by local media for being standoffish (which may have more to do with media perception than actual truth...I am not privy to the internal workings of the Blazers organization).

He very well could improve the Blazers to the point where a Championship goes from being a realistic but somewhat long shot possibility next season to a favorite if he were traded for some package such as Aldridge, Martell Webster, and whatever spare parts were needed to make the salaries match up.

Of course, there are several problems with the above scenario, and just to save the people who hate my article time, let me present a couple; Bosh may not want to leave Toronto, he may not want to come to Portland, the deal might not make sense from Torontos' standpoint as they may not feel the value in return is sufficient.

I, of course, feel Aldridge and Webster would be far too much to give up. And this has nothing to do with their respective ability.

I love Aldridge's game, I love that he has been a Bloazer since draft day, and I hope that he retires a Blazer. I do not want to see him in a Raptors uniform. In fact, you can replace the word "Raptors" with any team in the league not named "Blazers".

I hate any trade that sends Greg Oden, Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless, or Martell Webster away. Shrewd drafting has given the Blazers a roster that was "born" together, has grown up together, and it is time to watch them roll the League together.

I want to see the home-grown, home-developed players take their shot. Yes, I know about the problems...I know that Batum's development is limiting Webster's role. I know that Fernandez wants more playing time, a bigger role, and more money. I know the criticisms of Bayless as point guard and Oden as injury prone, of Roy as a weak defender and Aldridge as a soft player.

I also know that I love watching these guys play together, I love knowing they started their NBA PLAYING careers as Blazers and they are good enough to take a run at a couple of titles.

No, I am not a complete and total homer. I recognize how much acquiring Marcus Camby has improved the team this year, regardless of how much I hate the cost of losing another personal favorite, Travis Outlaw. I recognize that with all the injuries and the surprisingly poor play before the injuries started, Portland is not as good this season as the Cavaliers, Magic, Nuggets, Celtics, Lakers, and maybe even teams like the Suns, Hawks, Spurs, Jazz and maybe one or two others.

But they will be if and when they get healthy.

The fact that the Blazer teams of Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter, Kevin Duckworth and Jerome Kersey never won a title never made me love watching them any less. If Portland could have traded Kersey for Pippen in their primes and won multiple titles, I would have loved them less because Pippen would be an import.

Yes, I grew to love the game of Buck Williams, but he was never as cool to me as our home-grown guys.

Yes, I love watching Andre Miller play, and his expanding game...two dunks this season, which I believe is probably a career high, and possibly a career TOTAL, is entertaining. Watching Camby block shot after shot and pull down rebound after rebound is cool. But I still like watching "my" guys more.

And the same would hold true for an Aldridge-Bosh trade. On a basketball level, depending on who they gave up, I think it would be an improvement for Portland. But on a personal level, I hate it.

And that gets to the root of fandom. Am I a fan of the player or the franchise? The real answer is both. I admit I turned on Drexler a bit when he more or less quit on Portland when it became obvious their run at a title was over, only to rejuvenate his career in Houston. I did not want to see him win a title there.

Kersey in a Laker uniform is a crime against humanity I will never get free from. I was sad to see him in Warriors, Spur and Buck gear...but I might have shed a tear when he wore that hated uniform. Porter played with the Timberwolves, Heat and Spurs. that also makes me sad.

Not because I did not want Drexler, Porter, Kersey, Cliff Robinson and so forth to have long, meaningful careers or that I did not want the Blazers to move forward. It was more because my development as a basketball and sports fan coincided with the careers of the players.

One reason I do not particularly follow college basketball is because of the rampant player change. Great college players are typically there for one or two years, good ones for three, and pedestrian players for four. Yes, there are exceptions, but that is pretty common.

That means to follow college basketball and have any real in-depth knowledge of what is going on, I have to learn four, five, six new players and their styles every year.

By contrast, even before this season ends and off-season moves take place, I have a pretty good idea of how the Blazers will play. For that matter, I can tell you what the typical Spurs, Nugget, Clipper or Warrior game will look like next year.

I know their offensive concept and where players should be on any given play. I know who should get the most shots and where those shots should come from. Sure, there will be adjustments. Of Patty Mills, Dante Cunningham, Jeff Pendergraph, Marcus Camby, Martell Webster, Andre Miller, and Rudy Fernandez there are likely to be anywhere from three to six new names in those places.

But I also expect the opening night Blazer line-up, barring injury, to have Oden, Aldridge, Batum and Roy for sure (and most likely Miller, but who knows?). I expect Aldridge to be posted up on the first two to three possessions, with Oden getting a couple of those and Roy driving at some point in the first five minutes or else taking that gorgeous pull-up jumper foul-line extended.

I would hate to see that broken up too soon even for a player such as Bosh. That is personal preference...but it is a strong one.

Travis Outlaw and Marcus Camby: How a Trade Cost the Blazers a Season Ticket holder

Some of my earliest sports-related memories revolve around the Blazers. Of course there was the seminal moment when I was six years old that saw the Cinderella team knock off the 76ers to win their first (and to this point only) championship.

My Dad, who is at best a casual sports fan, still gushes about the passing of Bill Walton, the speed and unselfish play of Johnny Davis, and so forth three decades later. That leaves an impression on a kid who idolizes his father.

Then there were the years of listening to the Schonz on the radio as I played along on my Fischer-Price hoop with the tennis-ball sized “basketballs” as guys like Kermit Washington, Calvin Natt, and Fat Lever fueled my imagination. Phrases such as "lickety-brindle, straight up the middle" became part of my vocabulary along with "you've GOT to make your free throws" and the still ubiquitous "rip city!"

As I began playing basketball more and more seriously myself, I modeled myself after “Mercy, Mercy” Jerome Kersey, even going so far as to adopt his jersey number.

During the Finals appearances by the Clyde Drexler/Terry Porter/Kevin Duckworth/Jerome Kersey years, for many of my friends and myself it was our pride and joy that, except for trade acquisition Buck Williams, the players had all effectively started their careers with the Blazers.

There is a reason the “Jailblazer” teams of Rasheed Wallace, Damon Stoudamire, Scottie Pippen and Steve Smith were never quite as popular as the other versions. Revisionist history would have us believe they were unpopular, but they were selling out the Rose Garden. They were still popular…but the energy that carried the whole city was lessened. There was less of a casual following.

These were not the players Blazer fans listened to as they developed from seldom-used rookies into a cohesive unit that coupld play with anyone in the NBA. Instead, they were a motley assortment of other team's cast-offs, fading veterans looking for one last chance, malcontents other teams traded off cheaply, and players with talent that was exceeded by their contracts.

No doubt they were still good or borderline great...and possibly even good enough to win a Championship had they not choked in Los Angeles...but there was just something missing. The connection was not there. They were popular and enjoyed, but not on the level the Drexler-Porter teams were.

The organization did the right thing, though. They went out, acquired on draft day good, solid citizens who also happened to be good, solid players. Instead of guys like Ruben Patterson, Damon Stoudemire, Darius Miles, Scottie Pippen and Zach Randolph we got guys like Travis Outlaw, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, Rudy Fernandez and Nicolas Batum.

I have been there for their rise and part of the enjoyment I have derived from following them has been the “grow with us” nature. The projected starting line-up of Greg Oden, Aldridge, Batum, Roy and Steve Blake with key reserves Joel Przybilla, Outlaw, Fernandez and Bayless featured seven of nine players who had never played an NBA game in any other uniform.

Of course, bringing in Andre Miller fundamentally altered this. And make no mistake…Miller is a significant upgrade from Sergio Rodriguez. He is a talent upgrade and brings several valuable assets to the team which are valuable and he is enjoyable to watch.

He is still a hired gun, though…Pryzbilla and Blake had been around so long they seemed like part of the family. Miller might be remembered as a Cavalier, Clipper, Nugget or 76er. His career is not and will not be defined by his time in Portland. This is nothing against Miller...he is a fine player and goes about his job in an admiral manner. I even have a certain affection for him.

Just not as much as I have for Jerryd Bayless, for example. Miller is, at this point, the superior player in every facet of the game that matters. But Bayless has been a Blazer since day one. I cannot stress enough how much that matters to me personally.

At this point, I think my bias has been clearly demonstrated. I like good players developed by the franchise much more than I do guys brought in from outside. Pippen, to me, will always be a Bull, just like Drexler will always be a Blazer, not a Rocket. (Yes, I realize Pippen won multiple Championships with the Bulls whereas Drexler won his outside Portland. Thanks for rubbing salt in the wound :-))

My own personal preference would be to watch these guys mature together, play together, and take their run at a title or two. I would rather see them try and miss than see a bunch of guys brought in via trade and free agency win it all.

It was one reason I absolutely despised the trade that sent Outlaw, Blake and cash to the Clippers for Marcus Camby. This is nothing against Camby. He is an obvious and immediate upgrade over Juwan Howard, Jeff Pendergraph, and Dante Cunningham at the center. He makes the team better this year.

In fact, I love what he brings to the team. He puts up prodigious rebounding numbers, his interior defense might be even better than that of Przybilla and Oden, and his passing with Aldridge is becoming a thing of beauty.

Nor is it a complaint about unloading Steve Blake. Blazer fans never warmed to him, he took a huge step backward in quality of play this year, he had been supplanted in the starting line-up by Andre Miller and was seeing his other minutes taken by Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, and Webster.

It is really about Outlaw. Here is a homegrown guy who provided some things the Blazers needed. He could create his own shot, he is a willing shooter in the fourth quarter and at crunch-time, and he is a genuinely likable guy.

Many Blazer fans looked past what he provided and saw only his limitations. He is oft criticized for his basketball IQ, his hit-or-miss commitment on defense and rebounding, and his pedestrian passing skills. What they overlook is the way Coach McMillan used his strengths while hiding his weaknesses…and that he was homegrown.

You can count on one hand the number of players who do not have huge holes in their game. Focusing on the negative at the expense of the positive would have Aldridge, Roy, Oden…the entire Blazer roster, in fact…exiting town rather quickly.

But the point is, the Blazers sent a guy out of town I loved in favor of a short-term rental. Sure, many people felt Outlaw would not be resigned…but to me, that was never a certainty. He brings things to the table McMillan loves, and GM Kevin Pritchard has repeatedly shown he is on the same page as McMillan. So maybe Outlaw would be gone, maybe not…but now he definitely is.

And with him went my heart. Not that he was such a favorite player…Roy and Aldridge still have that shared distinction, and have since they were brought in on draft day. It is more what he symbolized to me. The Blazer team that I have grown to love every component of is starting to disintegrate.

Fernandez is rumored to be unhappy about playing time. Webster played all of five minutes the other night. The starting line-up has Miller and Camby in it. Rumors have floated that Aldridge might be shipped out in a sign and trade for Chris Bosh (in the unlikely event Bosh agreed to this...maybe). The pre-season pursuit of Hedo Turkoglu demonstrated the Blazers are not averse to unloading Batum or Webster...or both.

This is still an exceptional team that, if it avoids further injury and manages to make reasonable and natural improvements in the players they have will be a threat to win the title in any given season for a decade to come.

And I will still be enjoying the ride. I just will not be doing it at the game. I will watch when they are on TNT, ESPN, or the local NBC affiliate. But I chose not to renew my season tickets.

It was not because they are not trying to win. The acquisition of Camby is demonstrable evidence to the contrary. It is not because I do not enjoy the games.

It is strictly because the exchange of Outlaw for Camby signifies a shift in thinking from “lets let our core develop together” to “let’s ship out a guy who has been a core player and key contributor out for a short-term fix”.

My interest in watching imported “veterans” is not high enough to justify paying rising ticket prices, outrageous concession prices, invest time, energy and fuel to see a team I am markedly less involved in emotionally. That, in a nutshell, is why seeing the Blazers improve led me to decide not to renew my season tickets.

I should emphasize that I hope I am a minority. I hope the Blazers sell out every game for decades to come, that their string of Championships spans past the Roy/Aldride/batum glory years into the years my children play on the team.

But every fan has to enjoy a team in their own way. For me, part of that way involves watching players that are homegrown. What is it for you?

Trip City: What is wrong with Brandon Roy and the Blazers?

Prior to the season there was a lot of optimism in Rip City. It made a lot of sense because the team was clearly much improved.

The most glaring problem spot, back-up point guard, had seen a major upgrade with near-All Star Andre Miller coming in at the addition-by-subtraction cost of the departure of Sergio Turnover machine Rodriguez.

The second most glaring problem was resolved by the return of Martell Webster. While Nicolas Batum is clearly the best Blazer defender, Webster presents them with an offensively dangerous option.

Furthermore, team strengths were also improving. Greg Oden looked to have regained his speed and agility and was looking so improved that a guy who should have gotten some consideration for team MVP last year, Joel Przybilla, became a reserve.

Yet 20 games into the season Portland has already lost four home games, including a blow-out loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, has trailed for 11 consecutive quarters, and worse yet, looks like they are a team that does not care. What happened?

In some ways, it is a team effort. The players who have improved this year from last can be limited to two; Greg Oden and Martell Webster.

Oden is doing more than asked; he controls the boards, blocks shots, stays within himself offensively and shoots at a high clip. He plays hard and has a huge impact at the defensive end of the floor.

Webster had a shaky start but has come on to look like the Blazers best player much of the time. He has taken on Batums' role as defensive stopper and does a creditable job. He is not a premiere defender yet, but there have been moments and stretches where he has been.

So if those two are improved, who has gotten worse?

Naturally, since credit starts at the top, so does blame. And Brandon Roy unfortunately deserves much of that blame.

Unlike past seasons where he has been an efficient scorer, this year his offense has been disruptive and low percentage.

Part of that is due to the officiating. My bias is obviously pro-Blazer, but I genuinely believe he is poorly officiated. It is very frustrating to see him drive the lane, be bounced off three defenders, and no call, only to see a Blazer pick up a hand-check foul on players like Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, or even Rudy Gay.

Roy should be going to the line over 10 times a game with the way he plays, but he is not officiated the same way other slashers are and regularly takes a great deal of contact without drawing the foul.

As a result, he becomes frustrated, knowing no foul will be called, and overcompensates with some wild drives that result in ugly shots and worse turnovers that lead to fast-breaks going the other way. This does not excuse his play, but certainly makes it understandable.

Nor is he playing well defensively. He gets torched repeatedly on the occasions he makes it down the floor at all.

But his disappearance pales in comparison to that of Steve Blake. Blake somehow forgot who he was. Gone is the steady point guard who hits the three and doesn't turn the ball over. In his place is a guy who makes unbelievably bad turnovers, makes them at the worst time possible, plays worse defense than Jeff Pendergraph is playing* to the point where I have labeled it Blake-fense.

Even my favorite player, LaMarcus Aldridge must share some of the blame. He has lost a lot of the aggression he showed in the past two seasons. He does not demand the ball on the block, does not dominate defensively the way he should, has looked lost and out of place all too often. He is far more talented than he has shown.

Przybilla has seemed disinterested, no longer the defensive force he used to be. He is not moving his feet, not blocking out, not blocking shots, and not bringing the attitude he used to.

Now, to be fair the Blazers miss Travis Outlaw a great deal, and more than many Blazer fans realized they would. His explosive scoring potential and game-changing athleticism, along with his clutch fourth quarter play show up again and again.

Yes, Portland lost two key rotation players in Outlaw and Batum. Yes, they have played a hectic schedule.

These are not valid excuses. They have also played a cupcake schedule and there are several inexcusable losses on it. If they want to be a playoff team, much less a contender, then they need to show the heart it takes to be one and win the games they should without making excuses.

For example, they choked away home games to the Nuggets and Hawks. They lost to a Warriors team playing seven guys. They lost at home to Memphis, giving up a 31-4 run on their home floor. They did not even try against the Heat.

The amazing thing in that game was that the Heat shot 53.3%. What is amazing about it is that the number was so low. All night every shot was wide open with no Blazer in the picture. Nor is that a one-game phenomenon.

The Blazers are out of sync right now. When there is a pick and roll, often the Blazers elect to defend neither player. Nor do they defend well one on one, and when the big men provide help defense, no Blazer provides rebounding coverage.

Defensively, they are discombobulated and lack any sense of cohesion. Offensively they are only marginally better.

Yet for all that, I think there is one more huge element that deserves some blame for the question, "What is wrong with the Blazers".

That is people like me. Fans. Fans who love this team. Fans with expectations for this team.

When the team was built around Zach Randolph, we expected to lose. We knew we would lose to the Clevelands of the League, struggle against the Utahs, and try to eke out wins against the weak sisters like the Warriors, Clippers, and other NBDL teams masquerading as NBA teams.

We knew who those teams were because we were one of them.

But we got spoiled. We got used to seeing Super-Trout (Travis Outlaw in super-stud mode) and B-roy dominate games, in seeing Portland win every possession, even if the other team scored, by putting out superior effort, functioning as a cohesive unit, and winning virtually every home game.

We got spoiled by watching Roy and Aldridge go from good draft day picks to cornerstones of the franchise. We got spoiled by a meteoric rise from irrelevance to 54 win team.

And we got used to it.

Instead of coming to the game planning to enjoy the action and have a win be icing on the cake, we now show up expecting a win and being upset if the Blazers struggle. Sure, not all of us do that, but we fans are a team just as the Blazers are and must all take responsibility for what we do.

That includes the poor taste in booing the home team in each of the last two home games. It includes the raucous booing whenever a Beaver or Duck shirt is shown.

Yeah, I know, Beaver fans hate the snobbish, arrogant Duck fans. And Duck fans hate their also-ran little cousins and make a point of booing loudly...and often.

So often they have made little kids cry when the kids were shown on the big screen wearing Beavers gear and been booed mercilessly. So obnoxiously the Duck fans drowned out the music because it was the OSU dance team on the floor, a favor the Beaver fans did not reciprocate when the Duck Dancers hit the floor.

The point is the fans are more frequently found silent or booing or complaining than cheering the team on, possibly because we became complacent before we won anything.

Now, it is much too early to panic. This is a very talented basketball team with a lot of good wins in front of it. Roy will get it figured out. Blake and Miller will get past their little unspoken feud. Aldridge will find his place on this team. And they will win plenty of games by the end of the year.

The question is whether Blazer fans will be patient while that happens.

So buck up Blazer fans. You are still winning at a .600 clip. You are still fine. The team will find itself. You just need to go back to being optimistic team supporters, stop ripping them at every opportunity, and enjoy the trip.

And yes, I realize the irony of saying that after writing this. But thanks for noticing.

* For those unaware of Pendergraph, he is currently on the Injured Reserve. Hopefully now that joke (?) makes sense