Preview: April

At 47-27, the Blazers will have already exceeded the expectations many people had for them in the preseason but will be behind what others expected them to do.  They start off April in Oklahoma to face the pseudo-expansion Thunder. Portland is so much better than Oklahoma that they should seldom lose and will not do so this day.

48-27

Next up will be a road game against a Houston team that should be trying to build a record good enough to have home court advantage in the playoffs, barring their normal rash of injuries. With the incentive of a playoff seeding in hand, the Rockets will win this one.

48-28

Still on the road, again to see Memphis with whom the Blazers should be intimately familiar by now. The date is different, the result the same. Portland wins.

49-28

The next night in San Antonio Portland will be looking for the holy grail, that 50th win. San Antonio, however, when clicking on all cylinders is, if not impossible to beat at home, certainly one of the 3 or 4 most difficult games in basketball. Portland is not ready to win this one.

49-29

Home to face the Lakers, still seeking that 50th. This time they will get it as Portland makes Bryant work to get his points and the rest of the visiting team cannot shoot a high enough percentage to make up for it. Portland gets their 50th of the season against the hated Lakers.

50-29

The next night they travel to L.A. Fortunately for Portland, they face the Clippers, not the Lakers. With the 50 win barrier reached, brimming with confidence, they will win their 51st.

51-29

The next to last game is a home game against the Thunder.  Now Portland is rolling. At this point, they might even be in the hunt for some decent playoff seeding. They will knock off Oklahoma City one more time.

52-29

The final game of the season is against the Nuggets. All season these two teams will have battled. This game might even decide which team gets some sort of post-season advantage. Since the game is in Portland...they do and win their 53rd of the year.

The 12 game improvement could be larger or smaller. There are a lot of games that could go either way. My assessment is based on a few assumptions:

1)  Greg Oden will "struggle" early in the season as he tries to dunk too often, encounters some foul trouble, but makes a huge impact defensively and on the boards. His presence allows Joel Przybilla to slide to the second unit where his lack of offensive production means little but his rebounding and defensive presence in the middle allow the second unit to be more effective than expected.

2) LaMarcus Aldridge continues to improve. He should reach 20 points per game and perhaps even improve to 8-1/2 or 9 rebounds per game. With more freedom on defense, his shot blocks will go up slightly but that is not a huge deal.

3) Early in the season while on the bench do to injury, Martell Webster will learn how to move without the ball. He will then be more effective when he returns to the line-up. He does not need to score a lot to be effective. In fact, with Aldridge, Roy, Travis Outlaw and Oden all hitting for double figures, even 9 or 10 points a game would be plenty as long as he hits the three-ball when he gets it. While waiting for him, Nicolas Batum will get some key experience, show his defensive abilities, and be called on whenever Portland needs a stopper.

4) Steve Blake continues his steady play, shooting seldom but well so the opponents can't sag off him. Portland really just needs zone-busting from this position. Blake doesn't turn the ball over much, shoots a nice percentage, and doesn't need the ball to be effective.

5) Travis Outlaw returns to his role as instant offense as the 6th man.

6) Jerryd Bayless gets some minutes, but not a lot. Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez will get most of the back-up minutes. Bayless will get a lesson from the team leaders about playing as a team member, not going off on his own so much. On this team his primary role is to defend and scoring should be an after thought. Early on he will struggle with that but between the coaching of Nate McMillan and the role Brandon Roy has already shown, he will come around.

No doubt some games I thought Portland will win will be losses and some I thought they would lose will be W's. Any way you look at it, this should be a very entertaining season and I look forward to watching it. Even if they fall short of my expectations, the type of players they have will make it fun on the court and be great people off the court and that is really all we can ask for. 

Preview: March

March opens at home against the Spurs. Portland needs to win this one to show they have legitimately arrived and when they get into the playoffs, they will not simply go quietly. It starts here as Portland, having gelled more and more as the season has developed, comes out and finds a way to beat San Antonio.

37-22

By this point, this is not the Portland team that started the season. These Blazers understand how their teammates play, where they are on the floor, how they defend, and how they work together. Their rebounding should be well above average, their zones comfortable and effective, their rotations quick and pointed, and young guns like Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and perhaps Jerryd Bayless will have found their roles and be performing to expectations.

When Indiana comes into town they will run into a confident, still improving team that is starting to really click. Portland should have improving shooting percentages, decreasing opponent field goal percentages, and keep adding to the win column. Indiana will be another win for the Blazers.

38-22

The next night they travel to Denver for the second end of a back to back. Denver will be surprising people. They are better than they are being given credit for. Iverson, Smith, Nene, Anthony...with all the minutes Anthony and Iverson play and the added firepower of Smith, this team will score a ton of points. Whether they can slow teams down consistently is another matter. On this night, they will and Portland will lose.

38-23

Home for a get well game against the T-wolves. This game should be an easy W for Portland.

39-23

 But don't scoff...every "easy" win builds confidence for the tough games. Like, say, against the Lakers who now come into town. Portland has been very competitive with L.A. and both teams are out to make a statement in this game. Portland will rise up, show their spirit and use the home court to beat a Laker team that will have a sparkling record.

40-23

Only one game off their win total from last year, Portland now faces a Mavericks team that will have slipped some from last year. Overconfidence leads to sloppiness, Jason Kidd has one of those games that reminds you of why team after team wrecks itself to bring him aboard...because, when he is right, he can single-handed win games. Portland loses a home game.

40-24

The Nets now come into town. I have heard pre-season rumblings that a lot of Nets fans think they will be better than advertised. Maybe. Maybe Brook Lopez will be everything they hope for, the loss of Richard Jefferson won't be felt, Vince Carter will become Vinsanity again and Yi Jianlian will be ready to play, surprising everyone including himself. The more likely scenario for them to be competitive this year involves bringing out of retirement Darryl Dawkins, Dr. J., etc. and getting one more run from a rejuvenated Nets Hall of Fame team...Portland continues their winning ways and matches their win total from last season.

41-24

On the road for what ties for their longest road trip of the year, though this one is a bit softer than the earlier long trips. First up is Atlanta. Brandon Roy and Joe Johnson are starting to develop a rivalry. Unfortunately for Joe Johnson, Roy has his number on defense and Johnson supplies a lot more at the offensive end than on defense so Roy's superior defense causes fits for the Hawks. Meanwhile, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden should have a field day as Portland gets the road trip off to a good start.

42-24

The next night is in Memphis, the back to back scenario. This is a good chance for the Grizzlies to pull off an upset. They catch a Portland team at the beginning of a long trip, theoretically tired from the night before. But here is where Portland shows their youth is an asset. Behind the veteran-like leadership of Brandon Roy, they come out and establish themselves early, never look back and win back to back road games.

43-24

Now Portland visits Indiana. Jarrett Jack was much maligned in Portland and unfairly. He did a decent job and will do the same for Indianapolis. Unfortunately for Pacers fans, with the departure of Jermaine O'Neal they have lost too much inside presence and won't be able to deal with the Blazers as the Blazers, looking good, win their third road game in a row.

44-24

The next night they go to Cleveland. Game 4 of a road trip for a back to back to a team that is in their head. Not an easy game and not one Portland will win. 

44-25.

Next up is the Bucks, closing out the road trip. A win here would be huge, even against an out-manned Bucks team, but it will be just a bit too much to ask and Portland will lose this game.

44-26

Home to face the 76ers. This time Portland gets the job done. Winning in the Rose Garden will be a tough task for every team not named the Trailblazers this year and only the very best teams will be able to do it. Portland will focus on making that home court advantage stick and even with the addition of Elton Brand, Philadelphia is not ready.

45-26

The Suns will arrive with a heavy dose of winning in their recent history. That ends here as Oden will have come into his own, Joel Przybilla continues to be a stellar back-up, and Portland is no longer afraid of the Suns. The mystique will have ended and the Blazers hold home court against Phoenix.

46-26

In come the Grizzlies and this one is over early. Portland blows them out.

47-26

Now the Jazz come to town. Portland has been playing well enough to win most of the games they should but stumbling just often enough to remind people that many prognosticators had them winning in the mid 40s for games this year. This is one of those times where we get reminded Portland is not ready for a deep playoff run yet as they fall at home to the Jazz.

47-27

Preview:February Post All-Star Game

Early in the season Portland had to find out how good they were. They had to settle some issues regarding how NBA ready guys like Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, Greg Oden, and Nicolas Batum were. They had to find out what offseason changes were made by Martell Webster, Sergio Rodriguez and Travis Outlaw. They had to find out what the new, improved LaMarcus Aldridge looked like.

Now they know. They know they can not only compete with any team in the League but they have a legitimate shot against even the very best teams in the League. It doesn't hurt they start with a soft schedule after the All Star game.

First up are the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have some nice players, guys like Rudy Gay and intriguing young players in Conley, Marc Gasol, and so forth. One thing they do not have is enough talent to compete with a Blazer team that is figuring out just how good they are. Portland will kick off the post-break festivities with a blow-out win.

33-20

Next up is an improved Atlanta Hawks team. While Atlanta is not necessarily as good as they looked against Boston, they are moving in the right direction. Joe Johnson is a high level scorer, they have a good veteran at the point in Mike Bibby, and Al Horford can do some damage. However, the Blazers can come at them in waves and have the talent to overwhelm Atlanta. Another easy win.

34-20

The Clippers might have run up the white flag by this point in the season or they might find their new players mesh very well and be surprising people. From a distance, I hope it is the latter. Clip fans have suffered a long time. They will keep suffering as Portland closes out the home stand with another win to go a surprising 15 games over .500. 

35-20

Next up is a wake-up call as they go to Houston. Houston is a fantastic regular season team and the Blazers might be a bit overconfident at this point. Houston will hold serve.

35-21

The next night is a back to back as Portland goes into San Antonia. Beating the Spurs in San Antonio is a tough task at any time. However, in the mid to late season when they are gearing up for the post-season, Greg Popovich almost always has them playing at a high level. Look for them to keep their dominance of Portland going.

35-22

They close out the month in Minnesota, a team that by now will be playing the role of spoiler. But they will also play the role of "get-well" game for Portland as Portland salvages one of the three road games to finish the trip 1-2.

36-22

For the month they went 8-4. Things are looking good for a play-off spot and a good one. 

Preview: February Pre-All-Star Game

Coming off their home win over Utah, the Blazers will be riding high going into their game in New Orleans. This is one of those games where on paper, the Hornets SHOULD win...but the Blazers are capable of pulling off the upset. This is the type of game that next year, Portland should win 1 or 2 of. This year, however, the longest Blazer winning streak to this point comes to an end here.
28-19
Next up are the Dallas Mavericks. By this point in the year, Mavericks fans will be excited, thinking Kidd can take them to the promised land. Much like the infamous Captain Kidd of yore and pirate lore, he tends to start strong and finish poorly. He will do enough to lift Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, and Brandon Bass in the starting line-up, and Jason Terry is so good off the bench that the home court advantage will be enough to power the Mavericks to a win.
28-20

Next up is a get-well game against the Oklahoma Thunder. Man it hurts to say that...the Sonics rivalry was so good for so long, going back to 78-79 when the Sonics knocked the depleted Blazers out of the playoffs, essentially ending the brief but spectacular Bill Walton era that brought the Blazers their only Championship...so far.

It intensified as the great Drexler-Porter teams of the early 90s saw their window close just as that of the great Sonics teams of Gary Payton, Sean Kemp, and ...wait for it...Nate McMillan were making their run. There were some incredible games in that stretch.

When the Sonics picked off Jeff Green and Kevin Durant last year and Russell Westbrook this year, it looked like they might be getting the early stages of a team that in a few years might provide the Blazers with some more great I-5 rivalry moments. Unfortunately, the Sonics franchise dissolved leaving behind ashes and the expansion Thunder. Portland has always had good success against expansion teams...look for that to continue as Portland wins this one to close out their road trip.
29-20

Then the Knicks come to town. Will Zach Randolph and Stephon Marbury still be Knicks? Will the Knicks be scoring triple digits night after night? Will Coach Mike no longer be considered a genius? Can New York stay within 20 points of Portland? The last one we think we know the answer to: no. Portland in a cake walk.
30-20

Next up is a return match with the Oklahoma Thunder. It will be fun watching Durant try to score fifty to keep them in the game. Another easy win.
31-20.

The last game before the break is at Golden State in a back to back. Portland will want to go into the break on a high note. They match up well with Golden State everywhere except the point. Interestingly, by this point there is a good possibility Jerryd Bayless will be seeing more playing time for Portland. If so, it makes even the point a good match-up for Portland as Bayless is reputed to already be NBA ready on defense. He could cause Monta Ellis problems in that area.
Portland wins to enter the break on a high note.
32-20

Blazer Preview:December

An 11-7 record is not particularly awesome and will probably have Portland about the middle of the pack or below, possibly even in the classic (and pointless) "out of the playoffs if they started today" scenario. But under the circumstances, it will be an excellent record.

They will have taken their longest road trip of the year, a trip that almost translates into an 8 game trip when you consider the only home game they have is a back to back at the end of the trip before another quick 2 game trip.

More importantly, having gone toe to toe with the NBA's best both at home and on the road, this team will realize they can play with anyone, anywhere, anytime. They will be starting to assert themselves in their roles on the team.

And promptly begin the month with another tough 4 game Eastern trip.

The first game will be in New York where D'Antoni is trying to bring the fun & gun to the Knicks. I have never particularly cared for the Knicks but if he makes them as fun to watch as the Suns were under his guidance, that is subject to change.

The Knicks have some talent but they have some issues. This should be a relatively high-scoring game, an entertaining game, and I will go out on a limb here and say a blow-out. The Blazers will have 3+ guys scoring over 20 and a couple more in double figures. They will get off to a good start with a win. 12-7

The next night they will be in Washington. Washington is another Jekyll and Hyde team that seems to start slowly, gather steam, and be dangerous by the end of the year. Agent Zero's well publicized injury issues are troubling not just because he is not on the court but also because it has a ripple effect as guys don't know if they will be starting or coming off the bench, playing point or playing the shooting guard, how many minutes they will be playing...this is unfortunate. I wish Arenas the best because he is one of the most entertaining players in basketball in many, many years. I also think even without him, in Washington on the second night of a back to back the Blazers might have too steep a hill to climb. Washington wins.
12-8.

Friday they roll in to Boston. Will Boston get back to the Finals? Maybe, maybe not. Their vets are a couple miles further along their journey...but so are their young guys. Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Big Baby...their second tier behind the Big Three could probably win close to 40 games. At home they should hold on to beat the Blazers.
12-9

The trip finishes in Toronto. The Raptors don't know what they have yet. They like what Calderon does at the point, the front line of Jermaine O' Neal and Chris Bosh is scary good, and they have filled in around those stars with guys who can perform vital functions. Yet the team is just missing...something. Something it is hard to put a finger on. They will do well in the East but I would be surprised to see them get past the second round. If this were later in the season Portland would win it, but I think they will struggle in December. Oddly, this is the time last year when they did well...
12-10

Home against Orlando. As talented as Orlando is, Portland will be angry and looking to put the hurt on someone after 2 very tough Eastern road trips in a 4 week period. Coming home to the Rose Garden, they will be ready. Orlando will go down, possibly by a lot.
13-10

Back on the road to face Utah. Last year Portland was incredible in back to backs. This year, they have the guns to make it happen but not on this night. Again, another month or so and I would think Portland would pull this off but for now, the Jazz get the win.
13-11

The next night, the second half of a back to back, home against the Clippers. Kaman and Camby are a nice start to a front line, Cuttino Mobley can still light it up on occasion, and Baron Davis will have some 40 point nights this year I would think. But they are flat-out over matched when they face Portland. Portland is better up front, better in the back court even if Boom Dizzle is better at point than anything Portland currently has. Portland has the depth, the talent, and the cohesiveness. Look for Chalupas and a blow-out as the Blazers roll past the century mark.
14-11

Next up is the Kings. K-mart will get some points, Brad Miller will look all right, and the score board will again show triple digits for the Blazers as back to back blow-out home wins occur for the first time in a long time.
15-11

So when Phoenix comes to town, Portland will be on a roll. Phoenix has had their number for a couple years but not on this night. Portland will finally get over the hump against the Suns. Oden and Przybilla will contain the Big Cactus, Aldridge and Frye will slow Stoudemire, make him work for his shots, and the sheer firepower brought by Fernandez, Outlaw, and the Blazer bench bring them a W against Phoenix.
16-11

Then on the road for the first half of a back to back against Denver. A lot of people think the loss of Camby has set Denver back, that Iverson is a step slower, and Denver is in rebuilding mode. I happen to disagree. I buy into the renewed dedication to defense they are crowing about, I think Nene will prove to be a stud, and the firepower of J.R. Smith will cause teams a lot of problems. With Kenyon Martin and Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets have a formidable front court. If they can find a way to show some team defense, this team could actually be improved from last year even with the loss of Camby. Unfortunately for Denver, most teams have improved so there are fewer easy wins for them. But they will win this one.
16-12

At home it is a different story. The home court advantage will lead to another Blazer win. With teams that are as close in talent as the Blazers and most of the teams they are chasing...including Denver...it is little things that often make the difference; slightly better shooting from the role players, a standout performance from someone, more favorable calls from the refs...the things that home court advantage often brings to the fore. Portland is too good to lose back to back games to the Nuggets and pulls this one out.
17-12

Christmas Day sees the Dallas Mavericks arrive. Last year Dallas was better. Jason Kidd is a great regular season player but when things don't go his way he becomes a cancer. On the bright side for Dallas, his arrival allows Jason Terry to possibly return to his highly effective 6th man role. Unfortunately, distractions such as the Josh Howard stuff will cost this team. They have bled off talent little by little since their Finals run.

Now, any team with Howard, Terry, Kidd, Dirk Nowitzki, and an improving Brandon Bass cannot be written off. This is still a good team with a chance at a decent seed in the playoffs. However, they will have problems matching up with Portland. Oden's power will get Desagna Diop in foul trouble, Aldridge's length will let him score almost at will, and Dallas has nobody who can stay with Brandon Roy.

The Portland advantage is even larger off the bench. When the Spanish Fly starts running and gunning and Travis Outlaw is flying around putting up shots from every angle, Dallas will find themselves in trouble. Barring some super human outburst by Dirk, this one should go Portland's way.
18-12

Toronto will arrive next. They have just enough talent to hold off Portland in Toronto...but this is in Portland. Bosh and O'Neal will have nice nights but the Blazers night will be nicer. Portland wins handily.
19-12

The month and year close out with a game against Boston. Portland is good enough to win this game. They should win it. But some how, some way, Boston will work their magic and beat Portland to sweep the season series. It will be a tough way to end the year. But there are a certain number of nights when, even on the home floor, the shots don't fall for you but do for your opponent. Maybe it is Ray Allen returning to the Pacific Northwest or Garnett going off. Who knows? But some how, Boston ends the Blazers calendar year on a down note.
19-13

Ironically, last year they were 19-13 and it was considered a huge success. How will it be viewed this year?

Blazer Preview:November

Portland should split their first two games and head to Phoenix at .500. Phoenix has a new look this year. Long gone are the Matrix and Mike D'Antoni. In their place are the Big Cactus and Coach Terry Porter.

Porter of course is much loved in Portland for his great run with the late 80s, early 90s Blazers of Clyde, Terry, Jerome, Duck, Buck and Uncle Cliffy...names that run so large in the Blazers pantheon that no other words are needed. I could probably just type #22, #30, #25, #00, #52, and #3 and most Blazer fans would have been able to identify them that way.

Now the most talented Blazer team since that one faces the heart and soul of those teams as the opposing coach. All early reports say it will be no easier to beat him now than it was when he was running those fast-breaking machines for the Blazers.

Shaquille O' Neal and Amare Stoudemire are a powerful front line. Oden will have to work to stay out of foul trouble but even if he has issues, Joel Przybilla has year after year done a better than average job of defending O'Neal. Always one of the dirtiest players in the League, O'Neal made himself even more unpopular with Blazer fans with his nationally televised cheap shot where he deliberately used the ball to drive Joel's head into the floor. Hopefully Karma catches up to O'Neal this year and he enjoys the health his actions deserve.

Oden, Aldridge, Przybilla and Frye will have plenty to do to keep up with O'Neal and Stoudemire. Last year Stoudemire got in Aldridge's head early and completely disrupted his game. Later in the season, Aldridge made some adjustments and showed he can play with Stoudemire...though I doubt anyone would question that Stoudemire is superior.

In addition, Steve Nash is the type of guard that gets the Blazers in trouble. Steve Blake cannot stay in front of Nash...not that too many guys out there can...and his penetration leads to a lot of open shots for Grant Hill, Raja Bell, and of course the big two. As a result, even the new look Suns should have good offensive nights against Portland early in the season.

At the other end of the floor, Brandon Roy has shown he can score on Bell, Aldridge is much improved, and as will be typical for this season, the Phoenix bench will not be able to keep up with the potent Blazers bench night in and night out, though on occasion they are certainly talented enough to cause problems.

This game is just too early. At some point this season Portland will win one in Phoenix, but not this one. The Suns are still too good and Portland needs to develop a defensive stopper at point. Jerryd Bayless may be that guy someday but is not there yet, nor are Sergio Rodriguez or Rudy Fernandez.

Sitting at 1-2, next up for Portland is another tough, tough match-up, the Utah Jazz. Utah is stacked and only looking to get better. Mehmet Okur is the type of Center who will cause Oden the most problems as he prefers to hang out around the perimeter. Conversely, if Okur can't figure out how to defend Oden he could find himself on the pine with large numbers of personal fouls which would minimize his offense. Even without Okur, the Jazz have a potent offense with Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, sharp-shooting Kyle Korver, the rejuvenated AK47 Andrei Kirilineko, and so forth. In Utah the Jazz are always tough.

Last year a depleted Blazers squad snuck in a win in Utah. I would love to see it happen again and they certainly are talented enough to do so but will not be ready to do so yet. Utah will win to drop the Blazers to 1-3.

They then come home for a back to back against a very talented Houston squad. From a pure talent standpoint, Houston might have the best team in the league. They can beat you so many ways. Yao Ming and Ron Artest can beat you with interior scoring and defense, Tracy McGrady is one of the most talented offensive players, and Shane Battier, Rafer Alston, Luis Scola, Luther Head...they have a deep, good bench that can hurt you.

Fortunately for the Western Conference, they have seldom put it together all at once, their 20 something game winning streak from last season excepted. As a result, they lose a lot of games they should win and seldom go deep in the playoffs.

This will be a stern test for Portland. Despite the difficulty of their schedule, a 1-4 start would be disastrous. They will come out hot and pull out their second win.

2 nights later Minnesota comes to town. It is Minnesota, enough said. Portland goes to 3-3.

Next up is a 5 game that swings East through Orlando, Miami, New Orleans and Minnesota before coming back to face the Warriors. That is a tough road trip.

Orlando found the right chemistry last year to turn themselves into one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Oddly, they proved vulnerable at home and often looked better at home. That is an anomaly I do not expect to see repeated.

The beginning of a long road trip is traditionally hard on teams. Orlando will be hard on teams at any point this season. Include the Blazers in that as they fall to 3-4.

Miami is next up. They have the makings of a good team. Dwayne Wade is pretty much a good team on his own. The Matrix Shawn Marion is a great 2-way player who can disrupt offenses at one end and defenses at the other. Michael Beasley seems like he has the makings of a great scorer. However, those three are not enough to hold off a hungry Blazer team. Portland will break through on the road in their 5th attempt. They are certainly capable of winning before that, even against the Lakers, Suns, Jazz or Magic. It is entirely possible they will have done so but on this night they will definitely get a win.

The Hornets know to improve on last year they will have to hold serve against the up and coming teams. They are well set up to do it. Their front line of Tyson Chandler and David West is well set up to deal with Portland. Peja Stojakovich provides the zone-busting outside shooting and Chris Paul is one of the best in the game at creating offense for other guys. It doesn't hurt that he himself can score almost at will.

The Hornets bench overall is not particularly strong but they do have guys like Mike James who, when they get hot, can carry a team for short stretches. Against the Blazers James tends to get hot. Pencil in the Hornets to win this one.

Closing out the trip will be Minnesota. Though the Wolves are much improved and playing at home, they simply don't have enough firepower to match the Blazers and the young Portland team will go to .500 for the trip.

With the confidence of a couple wins they head to Golden State. The Warriors picked up the talented Corey Maggette but effectively lost Pietrus, Boom Dizzle, Matt Barnes, and Monta Ellis, at least for this section of the season. The Warriors will still be a very dangerous team. Stephen Jackson and Maggette are both capable of putting up monster numbers and, with the departure of so much scoring punch, will do so with great frequency this year. Unfortunately for their fans, the flexibility and endless waves of talent the Warriors used to be able to throw at opponents has been reduced to a much less dangerous squad. They are just good enough to tantalize...they can win on any given night and even are capable of blowing out top-flight teams. But they are also capable of losing to any team, including the Thunder that stole their mascot's name. Portland will take this one, finish the longest road trip of the season at 3-2 and stand at 6-5, over .500 for the first time all year.

They then are home for a back to back. Having a back to back after a 5 game road trip almost turns it into a 6 game road trip. Still, glad to be home, the Blazers should handle the Jekyll and Hyde Bulls. It remains to be seen if they will return to their winning ways from 2 years ago or if they have become the middle country version of Isaiah's Knicks. Either way, Portland is just plain better. The guard corp for Portland is at least as deep as Chicagos and better all the way around and the front court of Chicago is not in the conversation with Portland's. Even at the end of a road trip Portland should win.

After their lengthy one night return home Portland heads back out on the road after one day for back to backs at Sacramento and Phoenix. The Kings are just plain bad. They have Martin, Miller, and not much else. It is going to be a long, long year in Sacramento. That is unfortunate. I wish they had cashed one in when they had Bibby, Divac, Webber, Stojakovich, and those fun, fun Adelman teams. They are closer to making the NHL playoffs than the NBA playoffs with this roster. Portland picks up a road win.

Back to back in Phoenix, the 7th road game in 8 games, you can pencil this one in as unusual: a game the Blazers get blown out.

Back home, this time for 3: Sacramento, another easy win, then Miami and New Orleans. Miami should be another W. New Orleans...hmm. That will be a tough one. But Portland wants to make the playoffs this year. To make the playoffs in the Western Conference you will have to win most of your home games and about half your road games. This should be an epic, titanic struggle. At some point this year New Orleans has a good shot at breaking through in Portland and this is the time. Last year the Rose Garden was a huge factor in their success and 2008-09 will be no different, but they won't run the table.

Portland closes on the road in Detroit. Year after year Detroit rolls out their talented cast and does very well. But Portland matches up extremely well. I don't believe the hype about Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace getting older. They play a very smart, team oriented game that relies on being in the right place more than on sheer athleticism.

That is not to slight the athletic abilities of the Pistons. They have the speed, leaping ability and power to compete with anyone. They simply use it in ways that mean their game will not see a big drop off when their legs go. Just as Reggie Miller was a lethal player long past his anticipated shelf life, these guys have a style that will extend their careers and effectiveness.

Beyond that, they are a well-balanced team. They can score inside or out. Tayshaun Prince is one of the most under rated players in the NBA. They are just plain a good team. How they only brought in one title is a curiosity that astounds me.

And yet I think Portland will find a way, in Detroit, to win. The balanced attack, the development of the Spanish Fly second unit, the way Portland can run at teams in waves will combine to produce a road victory to close out the month.

For November the Blazers should end up 10-6 and be sitting 11-7 overall. For the brutality of their schedule, that is a pretty good record.

A few of these games might flip-flop; it would not surprise me to see Portland win in Orlando but lose in Miami, for example, or beat the Hornets and lose to the Pistons. But they should be sitting pretty close to 11-7 and be well set up going into December.

Blazer Preview:October

The Blazers look to improve this year. To do that, they will need to beat Western Conference Playoff teams and beat them often. Should they prove incapable of doing that, they will fail to improve their record and the playoff dream will be deferred. Conversely, if they can find ways to beat the Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, Lakers, Nuggets, and Rockets then they will have a promising season.

Recently I looked over their schedule and figure they should finish within a couple games of a 53-29 record. Over the next few days I will take a look at their projected record in each month. As the season progresses, I will look back at my predictions and see how I did.

The Blazers have just 2 games in October. They open at the LA Lakers on Tuesday and then are home against the San Antonio Spurs for Halloween. Nothing like starting your season off easy...by any stretch of the imagination, both teams should be considered pre-season favorites to make the NBA Finals in the West, alongside the Jazz and Hornets. Portland opens with arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the League.

Starting in Las Angeles is a tough way to start the season. The Lakers made the Finals last year and lost no vital parts. The loss of Ronnie Turiaf is more than made up for by the return to health of Trevor Ariza and, more importantly, Andrew Bynum.

The Lakers are a hard team for me to preview honestly. They are doubtless the team I hate more than any other team. It is not the good type of "oh, I hate that team" where I will watch to see them lose...in the case of the Lakers, it is more, if they are involved, I will find something else to do except on rare occasions. Yes, I will admit I watched and loved every second of their Game 6 humiliation last year, but that was an exception.

With that caveat, they are also a team to be feared. Kobe Bryant is unquestionably one of the 2 best players in the League. He is one of a handful of players who can single-handed carry a team. The only other names that come to mind...okay, 1. LeBron James can score seemingly at will. He and Bryant are about the only guys who have shown the capability of banging out repeated 35+ scoring nights, though a few others can have individual nightly explosions. Bryant and James just do it more consistently.

Personally, I would love to see the "tired legs" and wounded finger of Kobe make him ineffective, Bynum do a Kwame Brown impersonation, Lamar Odom become disgruntled and a divisive force, Pau Gasol's defensive lapses put him in Phil Jackson's doghouse, age catch up to Derek Fischer and the Lakers run the table in reverse going 0-82. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen.

That makes opening in L.A. a tough game.

Yet Portland is talented enough to stay with them. Let's project the starting line-ups;
Lakers:
C: Andrew Bynum
PF: Pau Gasol
SF: Lamar Odom
SG: Kobe Bryant
PG: Derek Fisher
Blazers:
C: Greg Oden
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Nicolas Batum
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Steve Blake

Of course, both line-ups are susceptible to change. I have heard rumblings the Lakers will start Trevor Ariza at the small forward and Jordan Farmar at the point. From Blazer land have been rumors that Batum will get the nod with other rumors that Travis Outlaw or Rudy Fernandez will slide into the starting slot for Portland. Those would be key changes and result in a reassessment of both starting line-ups and bench strengths, but the overall outcome would not change I do not believe.

There is some potent offense there for both teams in the starting line-ups. Both teams can score inside, outside, or from mid-range.

At Center, Oden will get his points mostly on offensive rebounds and free throws early in the season. It depends on who the Lakers put on Oden. I would assume the younger, stronger Bynum will match up with Oden with Gasol taking on the more agile Aldridge.
This match-up will go to whoever gets the calls. Either Bynum or Oden will spend some bonus pine time in this one, and expect Bynum to gain a slight statistical edge in points and rebounds with Oden having more blocks.

Gausol has shown he can get his points against Portland with a variety of backdoor cuts and soft jumpers. However, he can't handle Aldridge, particularly if he is having to help on Oden....which he will need to. Aldridge should end up with a marked statistical advantage, though Gausol will still get his.

Small forward will be problematic for the Blazers. While Batum has shown flashes of brilliance defensively, in Odom he will be over matched should this be a game where Odom wants to shoot. Batum is excellent at deflecting passes, picking off steals, and so forth but sometimes gets eaten alive by good one on one players. Odom will have better numbers but his effectiveness will be determined more by his assist totals: if Batum can force him into some turnovers it will be a real positive for Portland.

At shooting guard we find Portland's best player, Brandon Roy. And still they will find the Lakers are statistically ahead. Bryant scores more, rebounds about as well, and their passing numbers are about even. The point of hope for the Blazers is they traditionally force Bryant into sub-par shooting performances, though that is not always the case.

It is the bench where Portland enjoys a marked advantage. Joel Przybilla is an above average rebounder and shot-blocker, Channing Frye is not a huge drop-off from Aldridge, Travis Outlaw is offensively vastly superior to Batum, and the back court of Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez is deadly, providing top-notch passing and excellent shooting. The Lakers will be hard-pressed to match up with Ariza, Farmar, and Walton.

The teams are relatively well matched. Neither team has enough holes in their line-up for the opponents to exploit. Both teams have excellent offensive abilities and above average defense. Thus it will come down to who executes better.

In a match-up this close, the edge goes to the home team. In this case, it also goes to the team wanting to atone for ending their season one game before the season ended. As a result, the Blazers will compete, be in the game right up to the end, but ultimately lose their opener. In L.A. the Lakers are the better team.

The second game is against the Spurs, a team that year after year gets written off as too old. Yet year after year the Spurs finish near or at the top of the standings. It is not hard to see why. They have superstars in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli. They have excellent role players who know their role and fill their role as well as possible in players like sharp-shooting defender Bruce Bowen, energy guy Fabricio Oberto, slasher Michael Finley, and so forth.

They play such good defense that their seeming lack of offensive firepower is rendered moot. By limiting the number of possessions in a game, the highly skilled nature of the offense provided by Parker, Ginobli and Duncan is magnified.

Oden should cause Oberto fits this year. Aldridge and Duncan will have some wars and come close to canceling each other out. Neither Batum nor Bowen expects to score a great deal so again it is about a wash. Roy will dominate his statistical comparison almost as much as Parker dominates his.

With Ginobli out to start the season, that means the Portland bench should dominate the Spurs bench. Kurt Thomas has a few miles left on him but not enough to cover all the holes in the Spurs second unit. Even if Parker and Duncan destroy the Portland starters...which they shouldn't...the second unit of the Blazers should have such a marked advantage that the Blazers should even their record at one and one.

It is exciting to see that even with rather modest contributions from Oden and with Martell Webster missing the first couple of months, the Blazers are still talented enough to compete with the very best teams in the NBA.

They should split their first 2 games against pre-season Conference favorites and that will get them started on a very entertaining season.

Blazers Preseason: Texas Hold 'Em at its Finest

The NBA Preseason is, in many ways, the most irrelevant thing in basketball today this side of the WNBA. The final scores don't matter, the record bears no relationship to the regular season, and I would be very surprised to see any correlation between regular season success and pre-season success. The good teams use the pre-season to try some funky things to see what works and for little else.

From that standpoint it is very much like Texas Hold 'Em. For example, suppose you pick up pocket Jacks. You raise it, get 2 callers, and flop a set with no straight or flush draws. You raise it, get a caller. The turn is a 10. The river is a 9 and someone wins who stayed in with a 7/8. Even though the end result is bad, you still like the hand because you know you will end the day with all their chips in your possession because you know the percentages are so vastly in your favor.

The NBA preseason is the same. You might win or lose a game by 10, 15, 20 points or more and in the end, it doesn't matter. Far more important is learning how the game is played by your guys, whether frontline, second line, or borderline. That is why I found myself much more excited about a 13 point loss to the Jazz than about a 33 point win over the Kings.

The Portland Trailblazers enter the 2008-2009 season as a good team. They do not need confidence boosting win totals, they simply need to know who can help them this year and to get Greg Oden back into game shape.

So now that we have seen them three times live, it is time to give them mid-preseason grades, with the grades not being tied to statistics but rather to how they accomplished what they needed to accomplish.

Greg Oden
After sitting out a year and change, big things are expected for Oden. He is expected to provide rebounding muscle and a low-post presence on offense that will command double teams and therefore open up the offense for other players. He also needed to get in game shape.

Early on, he had just one interest; throwing down a dunk. Every time he got the ball he simply tried to back his man (or men) down and attempt a dunk. The Kings racked up numerous fouls and finally Oden got his dunk down. After that, I was looking for him to expand his offense a bit. The coaches were too as they experimented with him in the high post.

Unfortunately, that did not work well as he tended to stifle the offense and looked lost at times. He also sometimes struggled to present good targets for entry passes when he was on the blocks. Once he gets the ball, more often than not he still simply tries to back down for the dunk attempt. This leads to a lot of strips when he is double and triple teamed. Also, when he runs into teams with Joel Przybilla like defenders he is in for some long, frustrating and ineffectual nights.

From time to time he will try a short hook shot but they have been fairly ineffective. So far, his best offense has been receiving a pass when the interior defense collapses on penetration or on grabbing offensive rebounds and throwing them down.

His passing comes and goes. At times he demonstrates excellent court vision but other times he accepts triple teams and eschews the pass entirely.

Defensively he has been much better. He has gotten quicker, shows excellent awareness about positioning when shots go up, and he has shown the ability to reject anything from a dunk attempt to short jumpers you would not think he could get to, but he does. He does get lost sometimes in the zone and struggles with quicker centers who float outside for long jumpers.

His conditioning is getting better every game and he will definitely be ready by the time the season starts.

Offense: F
Defense: B
Total: D

Joel Przybilla
On offense, Joel continued what he did last year. I think the next play the Blazers run where Joel is the designated shooter will be the first. Any points he gets come from pick and rolls where the defender drifts too far from him, offensive put-backs, and broken plays. Joel knows his limitations and does not push for more. He does not need shots to be effective. He does a nice job of passing the ball when necessary but for the most part he just sets picks.

Defensively, Joel and Oden are pretty much interchangeable. While not as quick or as good a jumper as Oden, Przybilla is a sharp defender who is not afraid to bang. Just as he did last year, he provides above-average defensive rebounding, interior defense, and shot-blocking.

Offense: C
Defense:A
Overall:B

LaMarcus Aldridge
Coming off the improvement from last year and with the expectation of Oden taking over most of the low-post scoring, Aldridge needs time to find his role. Will he be spotting up from 18' or will he be down on the blocks with his back to the basket?

For most of the pre-season he hung out on the perimeter. It took him a little bit to get going but once he did, he looks every bit as good as he did last year. He also is perhaps the best player Portland has on the fast break. He gets out ion transition better than anyone else on the team, shows excellent awareness when filling lanes, catches the ball in traffic and finishes.

Defensively, he has a little more freedom to roam. He is struggling a bit with rebounding position at times, perhaps counting a bit too much on Oden to dominate the boards, but his help defense has been decent.

Offense:B+
Defense:B
Overall:B

Ike Diogu
Initially a throw-in on the Jarrett Jack trade, Diogu got a chance to play after Channing Frye went down with injury. Diogu is a rugged player who always seems to be in the midst of violent contact. He puts forth a tremendous amount of effort every night.

Offensively he is at best raw. When he gets the ball close to the basket he generally tries to muscle his way to the rim. Unfortunately, he often does this against taller, stronger, more agile defenders. He mixes it up occasionally with a turn-around jumper of dubious effectiveness.

He does show a knack for picking up offensive boards. He does not, however, play well alongside similar players. There was one memorable possession where he and Oden fought each other so ferociously for the ball that it took 5 or 6 lay-up attempts before the Jazz could get close enough to them to even foul them.

Defensively he is good against back-to-the-basket bangers. Against more mobile forwards or in the zone he often gets lost and gives up too many easy backdoor layups.

Offense:D
Defense:C
Overall:C

Travis Outlaw
Outlaw was Mr. Clutch for Portland, arguably more important to their fourth quarter success than even Brandon Roy. His ability to create his own shot and fearlessness about doing so were valuable commodities. When Martell Webster went out with injury, the starting Small Forward position theoretically opened up for him. It is Coach McMillan's decision, of course, but it looks to me like he has played himself out of that slot. That hurts because I am a HUGE Outlaw mark. I think he was key to their resurgence last year and has to be a huge contributor this year for them to have success.

Offensively he has regressed. Still unafraid to take a good shot, he is also unafraid to take a mediocre shot. Or a bad shot. Or a horrific shot, the kind that leave you shaking your head and wondering what you just saw.

Somewhere over the off-season, Outlaw forgot how to pass. He has become the ultimate black hole. I stared in disbelief as he passed up an easy pass to an unguarded Oden in favor of dribbling right to take a step back fall-away 3-pointer while moving to his right over 2 defenders.

Anytime he touches the ball on the offensive end now you expect to see a shot. Of course, he has such great jumping ability and such long arms that a lot of those shots fall. But it also inhibits the team offense and causes much more difficult attempts than necessary.

Defensively he also seems to have regressed. He has been getting burned repeatedly both in man to man and zone coverage schemes. He also seems disinterested in helping out on the boards. For a player of his height, leaping ability, and talent to have no rebounds in a game as he has threatened to do more than once in this preseason is inexcusable.

Portland needs him to turn his game around. Outlaw needs to be the focal point of the offense and is not adjusting well to needing to be the 4th option. Hopefully he stays on the second unit and returns to playing his game.

Offense:F
Defense:D
Overall:D-

Nicolas Batum
Prior to his arrival we had heard he was an above average defender with no offense to his game. Summer League reinforced this to the point where it was an open question whether bringing him in this year was a mistake or not.

In the first game against the Kings he was fouled. When he stepped to the line I laughed and commented to my wife, "He better make these. They might be his best chance to score all year." About 2 possessions later he shut me up with a gorgeous baseline drive and dunk.

Offensively, he has blossomed. He has a nice 3-point stroke, can drive just often enough to keep defenses honest, and is the Blazer's best shooter coming off a screen for a catch and shoot. His passing is pedestrian but for someone whom nothing was expected of offensively, he has been a revelation.

Defensively, if anything he was undersold. Batum shows some unbelievable instincts. He made 3 or 4 plays against the Jazz alone that had me out of my seat cheering. He is so long that he makes it all but impossible to get a pass by him unless you first move him out of the way. Again and again he steps into passing lanes it seems impossible for him to reach, tips or deflects those he cannot grab outright. He also can block shots both coming off his guy to help or straight up blocking his man.

Against the Jazz, AK-47 was killing Portland but when Batum started covering him, suddenly Kirilenko became a non-factor. He has the potential to be a lock-down defender with a little offensive punch. He also is more than willing to go down in the paint with the big boys and come away with a tough rebound.

Offense:A
Defense:A+
Overall:A

Brandon Roy
I have only seen Roy once this year. He played about 20 minutes in the first pre-season game. That was plenty. He is picking up right where he left off. He scores almost at will, including an improved looking three-ball, he passes as well as anyone in the League, and he makes the offense better.

Defensively, he does a great job of getting in the lanes, is a more than capable on-ball defender, and he is an excellent ancillary rebounder.

The only concerns about Roy are health and those are being dealt with by playing him sparingly.

Offense: Incomplete, but an A when in there
Defense: Incomplete, but an A when in there
Overall:Incomplete

Rudy Fernandez
His first game was the stuff legends are made of. He scored 6 points on 3 buckets, any of which would not have been out of place on the ESPN highlight package. But it was his passing that was spectacular. His passing was so good it made his alley-oop throwdown look lame.

His offense is spectacular. He can penetrate the lane, find open spots to pass to where none seem to exist, he can drop the mid-range jumper, the 3-ball, or dunk with seemingly equal ease. His does tend to have a couple more turnovers that you might like, but at least a few of those are attributable to his teammates not expecting passes. Once they adjust his turnover total will decrease and Blazer dunk totals increase.

Defensively he is all over the board. On one possession he will look like he has never played defense before and on the next he will force a turnover or a tough shot. He tends to prefer playing help-defense to matching up with his man.

He will also acquire more than his share of rebounds. He has the best offensive court awareness on the team outside of Roy. He teams marvelously well with Sergio Rodriguez and together they have the ability to turn the Blazers into a dynamic half-court team.

Offense: A-
Defense:B-
Overall:B

Jerryd Bayless
Bayless is another Rookie with high expectations. He is rumored to be a lock-down on-ball defender who can penetrate at will on offense.

That was summer league. The preseason has been a bit different. Hardly shy about taking his shot, he has not proven to be ready to take those shots. He has gotten into the lane with great frequency but he then tends to force up tough, contested shots instead of finding the open man. He has some potential to score and there will be nights where he is unstoppable. But there will also be nights that will have McMillan pulling his hair out.

His court vision is suspect and that will cost him a lot of minutes. If he does not find his rhythm, his shaky shot will cost him more.

Defensively, he is a good but not great on the ball defender. He tends to go for a first move too often and leaves himself vulnerable to quick guards with good ball-handling skills. He shows flashes of what he can do but is not the stopper Portland needs yet.

Offense:C
Defense:C
Overall:C

Sergio Rodriguez
Rodriguez needed to make a statement with Steve Blake out. Once the regular season starts, minutes when Steve Blake returns to the line-up he will be hard pressed to make a case for playing more. He has gotten an extended look in the preseason so it behooves him to make his case now.

Offensively he has improved a great deal. His shot looks better and he makes fewer flashy passes and more fundamental, effective passes. He still has the ability to penetrate, draw the defender and deliver to the open man.

He still turns the ball over way too often, however. Unless he finds a way to decrease his turnovers by half he will continue developing butt splinters from the pine time.

Defensively he is much improved, though still a below average defender. He allows his man too much freedom to move and does not do a good job of blocking off angles. He looks effective because he comes up with a decent number of steals but he can be the weak point in the Blazer defense.

Offense:B
Defense:C-
Overall:B-

Martell Webster, Channing Frye both get incompletes due to injury.

Overall, it is very exciting. The Blazers have shown their second and sometimes third units can hold their own against even the Jazz starting line-up for short stretches. The Blazers will win a lot of games via bench, a lot of games via defense, and a lot of games because their starters are so talented.

We saw improvement from most of the players and even some of the poor grades (See Oden, Greg) have more to do with potential than performance. Oden would be a major contributor with the game he showed but has the potential to be a game-breaker if he decides not to dunk everything but instead show some of the skill we know he has.

And when Webster and Frye come back, it only makes an already top shelf, versatile, deep roster even better. The more I see, the more I think this could be the year the Blazers go much deeper in the playoffs than a lot of people think they should. If Portland can get off to a good start in their first 6 games they might not be stopped. Conversely, if they start slow and are 4 or 5 games under .500 after 10 games, the hole might be too deep to get out of. I think the former result more likely.

Then again, in pre-season pretty much everybody looks good.

Blazers catch one break too many:Is the Dynasty over before it begins?

In previous discussions I have often mentioned the one thing that will prevent the Blazers from a long run with a lot of success would be injuries. Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Joel Przybilla, and Martell Webster are 5 players expected to make significant contributions for years to come who have one thing in common; they all have injury histories.

Oden has the well documented wrist and knee injuries. Roy suffered a variety of injuries the last 2 years that led to double digit games lost which is unfortunately a trend that was an extension of his College career. Aldridge suffers from plantar fasciitis which never goes away. Webster has an irregular heartbeat. Przybilla finds a different way to do it every time.

So when it was announced that Roy underwent surgery on...drum roll please...his KNEE, of all things, the hearts of Blazer fans were in their throats. No matter how many protestations that, "He had the same surgery on his other knee in college and only missed 3-1/2 weeks" come out of the official Blazer spokesmen, the Blazer fans hear, "We lost Oden to microfracture surgery last year, then Gilbert Arenas had the same thing as Roy and it took him out for a year. There is NO POSSIBLE GOOD OUTCOME!"

Relax, Blazer fan. There are a lot of good outcomes. Even in the unlikely event that Roy misses significant time this season, Portland is still in great shape. They have Rudy Fernandez and perhaps Jerryd Bayless ready to provide meaningful minutes at the Shooting Guard if needed. They have Sergio Rodriguez, Travis Outlaw, and Webster showing tremendous progress. And they have a revitalized Oden.

How revitalized is Oden? He inspired this exchange after he worked out with Channing Frye.

Reporter: "Did Oden look like he was favoring his knee?"
Frye: "No, he favors dunking on your head."

But back to my point. The possible good outcome even if preliminary reports that the arthroscopic surgery was successful are wrong is simple. Last year provides an excellent example.

When Aldridge missed a few games Roy called the team together and told them how they needed to respond in order to continue the success they had experienced. And they did. Frye stepped up. Webster stepped up. An extra rebound here, a steal there, a couple extra points and the entire team was picked up. Furthermore, it let the players figure out they could play well in his absence. The same thing held true when Roy missed a few games. They continued to win.

Will the same thing hold true for long stretches? Obviously not. A person would have to be a fool to believe the Blazers are as good without Roy as they are with him. But losing him for a few games is not the disaster some people would have you believe. Failing to resolve this now before it becomes serious as it did for Agent Zero would be disastrous. Losing him for a few games would give Portland a chance to see exactly what they have in Fernandez and to give Bayless more and more meaningful minutes than he will most likely see otherwise. In a word...experience. Late in the year and more specifically in the next couple of years, that would be a great side-effect of a bad circumstance.

So yes, it is worth being nervous that Roy had his knee scoped. But there is no need for the flood of, "The Blazers are snake-bit" or panic responses that are sometimes seen. He will be fine and so will the Blazers.

Will early season schedule brutalities derail the Blazers playoff hopes?

The 2007-08 season saw the Blazers lose #1 draft pick Greg Oden before a single game was played, lose All-Star Brandon Roy for multiple games, lose future All-Star LaMarcus Alrdidge for long stretches, have the 2nd toughest Strength of Schedule and one of the 3 youngest teams of all time. This did not stop them from finishing the season with a .500 record at 41-41.

The optimism from that unexpectedly successful season was only exacerbated when GM Kevin Pritchard signed Spanish sensation Rudy Fernandez, Pritch-slapped fellow GMs on draft day to unload oft-maligned (unfairly, by the way) Guard Jarrett Jack, food tube Josh "McBob" McRoberts and a draft pick for bench polisher Ike Diogu and Guard Jerry Bayless. With Oden, Fernandez and Bayless coming in many observers argue Portland is bringing aboard 3 of the top 5 players from this year's draft, somehow ignoring the fact only one of them was drafted this year. The point remains, a team that went .500 last year seriously upgraded its talent base even aside from the natural progression of young players such as sharpshooter Martell Webster and prime time shot-maker Travis Outlaw. The only other loss of note was oft-injured but talented James Jones whose loss is anticipated to be offset by the development of Webster and Outlaw.

Predictions have ranged from improvement to about 45 wins all the way to a rather unreasonable claim on the Championship this year. Most predictions have settled more in the middle with a low playoff seed and 1st or 2nd round exit. That does not sound unreasonable.

At least, it didn't before the 2008-2009 NBA schedule was released.


October

Tue 28 @ LA Lakers 7:30pm
Fri 31 vs San Antonio 7:30pm
November
Sat 01 @ Phoenix 7:00pm
Wed 05 @ Utah 6:00pm
Thu 06 vs Houston 7:30pm
Sat 08 vs Minnesota 7:00pm
Mon 10 @ Orlando 4:00pm
Wed 12 @ Miami 4:30pm
Fri 14 @ New Orleans 5:00pm
Sat 15 @ Minnesota 5:00pm
Tue 18 @ Golden State

Opening night is in LA against the hated Lakers. Last year the Blazers somehow managed to split the 4 game series with them although that is somewhat misleading as at no point was either team at full strength when they met. Furthermore, this year's Blazer squad is far stronger while the Lakers more or less stood pat with a team that was good enough to win the toughest Conference in history. With continued development by some of their young players and a return to health of Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum, they figure to be even better than last year.

Portland's first game is against those Lakers in L.A. The Lakers figure to come in with a chip on their shoulder after their humiliation in Game 6 and knowing the nation is watching. That makes it a statement game for both teams. Look for LA to make the bigger statement with a comfortable win.

Next up is a home game against San Antonio. The Spurs will also be rolling in with something to prove as whispers about them being too old, having lost too many steps and so forth. If Portland wants to be a playoff team this is the type of game they will need to win as they did last year. But will they? It would not necessarily be an upset to see San Antonio pull this one off. Then Portland would be looking at 0-2 with a horrific stretch ahead.

The next night is a back to back on the road against Phoenix, a team that absolutely destroyed Portland last year. To be sure, Phoenix has completely changed complexion, philosophy, and their coach but the back to back, the (probable) tough start to the season, and that mental domination combine to make this a very tough game.

After that they travel to Utah for a road game against a team that won 50+ games last year and lost I believe 3 games at home. Ouch. This is followed by another back to back as they fly home to face 50+ game winner Houston, a team that got vastly better in the off season. That is no gimme.

Finally Portland catches a break with a home game against Minnesota. Even in Minnesota Portland SHOULD win that but to get 6 games in before finding a game you pencil in for a near-certain W is a pretty tough start.

On the bright side, I can make arguments why Portland COULD win every game. Then again, only the Minnesota game would be hugely disappointing to lose. If Portland started out 3-3 it would mean they pretty much held serve with their home games. Then they would have a tough 5 game swing with games against vastly improved Miami, Orlando, and New Orleans before finishing against Minnesota and Golden State. When a road game at Golden State looks like a "break" you know your first 11 games have been tough.


This young Blazer team will be tested early and their season very well may be defined by the opening stretch. By the time they have completed this 21 day stretch they will have played 11 games, 13% of their season. That is enough time to get at least a sense of where they are at. Are they competing with the best in the league at a level that promises success this season or are they struggling?

Unfortunately, one of the things young teams often struggle with is confidence and this is a schedule that can do harsh things to that trait. If Portland gets blown out by the Lakers and then loses to the Spurs they would most likely lose in Phoenix and Utah. Suddenly they are 5 games in and the 5000 pound Gorilla gets bigger when they face Houston even though the game is in Portland. In that scenario they would be sitting 1-5 after beating Minnesota and could easily lose 4 or even all 5 of the subsequent road games. If that were to happen it would be disastrous and the once promising season would be all but done. Large boned females would be warming the vocal chords if not outright singing.


On the other hand, if Portland pulls off an opening night upset in LA and follows that up with a win over the Spurs, everything changes. Suddenly they have wins over 2 of the teams they need to beat to be a force. Suddenly a win over Phoenix or Utah would be feasible, the home games against Houston and Minnesota are not just possible wins, they are probable and by the time they start the road trip they are sitting 4-2 or even 5-1 and know they can play with anyone. Look out Miami. They could easily go 3-2 or better on the road trip and suddenly are well set up for the season.

Suddenly that 5 game road trip is not so intimidating. By now they will have seen what Oden can do, how the off-court efforts of Webster and Outlaw are panning out, how having a powerful offensive threat down low has allowed Aldridge to expand his game and suddenly they are a young, energetic team brimming with talent and confidence and they are ready to make a run at the playoffs even though it is quite early in the season.

Obviously there are a variety of scenarios possible for this team. I freely admit to being a Blazer "homer" and as such I work hard to keep my favoritism in check. Sometimes I swing too far the other way and underplay their talent and abilities. I am trying hard to keep my expectations realistic.

We will see how the season goes. If Portland wins early against LA or the Spurs they should survive the brutal first quarter of their season in great shape for a run at a decent playoff seed. If they lose the first couple games it will require a lot of lucky breaks for them to even make the playoffs. Either way, the tough opening schedule will quickly let us assess just how good this team can be. Will they just be potential or will that promise be realized? We should know by the time Halloween is over.

Scouting the 2008-2009 Blazers: The Bench

After taking a look at the possible starters for next season, it is time to take a look at the Blazer reserves.

Joel 'the Thrilla' Przybilla
Offensively Joel is very, very limited. He has no mid-range game whatsoever and little if any post-up game. He is never really an option at that end of the floor. With that said, he does have some positives. He is an above average offensive rebounder, does a nice job on the high pick and roll, and gets most of his points on broken plays or follow up shots. Since he takes virtually shot from inside of 8 feet he ends up shooting a good percentage.

It is on defense where Joel really shines. At times he is a dominant defensive rebounder who can totally control the boards. He uses basic fundamentals to block out the opposition and has above average timing and good hands. He is also a shot-blocking machine, particularly close in. He probably had more blocked dunk attempts than anyone else in the entire league. He is not particularly mobile, however, so his strength is against the big, strong post-up centers. Quicker guys tend to give him problems.

Probably the biggest weakness for Joel is his injury prone tendencies. He has never played a full season in the NBA. A lot of his injuries have been freak type things...but they keep happening. It is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Overall Joel is an excellent role player who can provide rugged interior defense and rebounding. He won't provide much scoring but you know that going in.

Channing Frye
Frye has a nice mid-range jumper that can be devastating when he is on. However, he is somewhat reminiscent of Brad Sellers...he is a big man whom is seldom seen inside for whatever reason.

Defensively he has a bit of a mean streak. You won't get any easy buckets against him...but you will score. At times he is a decent rebounder but too often he loses focus.

Frye is an intriguing talent. He was once a lottery pick but has never fulfilled his promise. With Oden coming in he will not get any minutes at the Center position and he will be fighting Travis Outlaw for minutes behind Aldridge. As a result, he will be towards the end of the bench or else gone via trade.

Josh 'McBob' McRoberts
McRoberts spent a bit of time in the D-League. He needed more time. Rumors abound that the popular McBob was kept around as a "comfort factor" for Oden. Expect that to continue. With Oden, Przybilla, Aldridge and Frye in front of him you will not see McRoberts on the floor even if by some miracle he is still on the roster.

James Jones
Jones is an intriguing talent. He provides excellent outside shooting and will go inside on occasion. Last season he was leading the league in 3-point percentage after the All-Star break before slumping. He is very dangerous shooting from the corner but, unlike Martell Webster, he does not just plant himself in the corner and make himself easy to defend. He will move side to side a bit to make the defense move. Nor does he limit himself to pumping up shots from outside the arc. Just often enough to slow the defense he will pump fake and drive to the rack. He is also more willing than most Blazers to get out on the fast break.

Defensively he tries pretty hard but is not very effective. Quick players habitually break him down and make the defense scramble when in the man to man. He is a bit more effective in the zone as his long arms and quickness let him be a bit disruptive in the passing lanes.

Jones also has a bit of a mean streak. When he and Frye are on the floor together at the same time you can expect to see opponent bodies on the floor at some point. Both tend to take a lot of fouls and have a lot of those fouls be hard fouls that are sometimes borderline dirty, a fact I am not fond of.

The other factor to consider is Jones also seems to be injury prone. He missed a lot of games last season.

Jones is most effective when he can come in to provide some long distance shooting and instant offense. In that role he is a valuable, lethal player whose deficiencies can be hidden. The more minutes he plays the easier he is to expose. Properly used he is the type of player who vastly improves a team as evidenced by the Blazers well over .500 record in games he played last year. He shares the Small Forward role with Webster and sometimes fills in at Shooting Guard, although with Rudy Fernandez arriving to back up Brandon Roy the latter minutes will be curtailed a great deal.

Jones is a great role player on a team like Portland. He is not expected to provide major minutes but performs very well in 15 - 25 minute per game stretches.

Travis Outlaw
If ever there was a player without a position, it has been Outlaw. He has played everything from Center to Power Forward to Small Forward to Shooting Guard and with varying degrees of success...within the same game. He is too fast for opposing Power Forwards, too tall for opposing Small Forwards, and can stay with most Shooting Guards. He can bomb away from 3 point land or drive as well as anyone on the team. He is a match-up nightmare for the opposition. He is also an exciting player; he probably had more momentum changing plays than any other Blazer. His highlight real hammer cocking dunk over Andre Iguodala of the 76ers got as many cheers as any other highlight with the possible exception of Roy's.

His offensive strength lies in his versatility. His .396% from long range trailed only Jones and Steve Blake. He shot a few too many from outside which dragged down his overall percentage, though that will improve with experience. He is great at creating his own shot as well. One of his favorite moves is to face up his defender, make a quick jab step to create space, and pull up for essentially an uncontested jumper. It works because his outside shot is good enough to make that respectable, he has the speed to get to the rim and power to finish, and he elevates so high that it is all but impossible for a defender to bother his shot.

Additionally, he is one of those players who is not afraid of the moment. He took the shot that really defined the Blazers season. Early on the Blazers had been struggling, losing games they should have won, not competing in some games. Against a Memphis team they needed to handle with just seconds left on the clock the ball ended up in Outlaw's hands. It is significant that he did not start that game...or many others...but he was finishing it. The young man created his own shot and in a shot that beat the buzzer by a photo-finish microsecond made the clutch bucket to give Portland their first road win...and first of 13 straight that carried the Blazers from a 6 games under to 7 games over .500 record. Arguably, that shot saved the season. And while it was the first of the game-ending shots he would take, it would not be the last.

Coach McMillan quickly learned Outlaw is a player he can rely on in the 4th quarter. If Roy is the Blazers' best prime time player then Outlaw is 1A. He is clutch, he is not afraid of the big shot, and if he misses it then he does what the best players do...he forgets about it and goes back in his mind to the one he made.

Defensively he is unsteady. At times he is spectacular. At various times he was focused, was moving his feet, and with his length he can bother the shot of virtually any player he faces. However, in the zone he tends to get lost, leave his area of responsibility and does not help on the boards as much as someone with his size and leaping ability should.

Outlaw is a high motor guy with seemingly boundless energy. He can transmit that energy to the crowd in a variety of ways...he can deliver a highlight reel dunk, he can make a sky-walking, out of nowhere block, or he can make an energy play. He reminded me a bit of Jerome Kersey a few times this year when he caught up from behind to reject break-away dunk or lay-in attempts. And he is only going to get better.

For whatever reason, mostly because of his contract, he is repeatedly brought up as the Blazer most likely to be traded. That is the biggest mistake Portland can make. He has future All-Star ability, can play on the floor inside or outside, and is taking charge of his career. He has been durable and coach able and his only downside is some have questioned his basketball IQ. He does get a little lost at times but it is important to remember he is still young, only 23. Physically, he has the tools to be a top 5 player in the league and is developing the mentality. It remains to be seen if he will put it all together.


Rudy Fernandez
Fernandez is an international star and good enough that many people claim he would be the 3rd pick in this year's draft behind Beasely and Rose. The excitement over his impending arrival has been felt throughout the city. In international play he has been a prolific scorer with above average passing skills. He is also rumored to have questionable man to man defensive skills. In the interest of full disclosure I have not really followed the international game so all I have is rumor and innuendo.

He will be providing backup minutes at Shooting Guard behind Brandon Roy. Since Roy played nearly 38 minutes per game last year, there is not a lot of time, particularly if Jarrett Jack is kept around as he, Jones, and Webster all took turns at the position last year. However, it is anticipated the Blazers will experiment with running Roy at the point a bit more this year which will give Fernandez a bit more playing time. Either way, Portland has the roster to give him time to develop and learn the NBA game.

Jarrett Jack
Jack was projected to be the starting point guard last year but just a handful of games in he proved to be unready. He slid quietly into the role of instant offense off the bench and at first played really well but then he hit an extended slump before again hitting his stride towards the end of the year. Jack is a more natural shooting guard than point when you examine his skill set.

Offensively Jack is at his best when he is penetrating. He can get into the paint virtually at will but once he gets there he sometimes gets lost, deciding too late whether to shoot or pass. He has a nice little teardrop running one hander and is good at drawing contact. When he gets to the line he is the best foul shooter on the Blazers. He is okay from the 3-point line but is not going to make anyone tremble. Either way he tends to get sloppy with the ball and tends to turn it over in bunches.

Defensively he is an average on the ball defender and a decent ball hawk out top in the zone but he tends to get overpowered by guards who can post him up.

Overall he is a streaky player. When he is playing well he makes solid contributions, stays within his game, and is a serviceable player. When he plays poorly he can really hurt the team. Hopefully another year of experience will help him gain a bit of consistency. If not, he is likely to be the odd man out in the rotation.

Sergio Rodriguez
Sergio is a real mixed bag. He can be a spark plug who wins lost games or a goof who loses games that were in the bag. He tends to get himself into McMillans doghouse and disappear for long stretches.

At his best Rodriguez is penetrating the lane and creating havoc for the defense. He has excellent court vision and is lightning quick. He can break down any defender and will find the open man. In one notable game he had something like 8 assists in 5 minutes. However, at other times he looks for his shot and that is when he costs the team. He is a lot like Jason Kidd...he has talent, he just uses it for the wrong end and the opposition is more than willing to let them shoot it.

Defensively he is a wreck. He tends to let his man by him way to often, he gambles too much in the passing lanes and the others have to cover for him.

The best use for Rodriguez is to change the pace of a game. He gets the ball up the floor in a hurry and with him on the floor the Blazers give a completely different look than when Blake, Jack, or Roy is running the team. He can play 5 - 6 minutes at a time at a high level and his deficiencies are not badly exposed there. When he plays longer he tends to get abused and the team suffers.

The Bench
As a whole the Blazer bench has a lot to offer. There is versatility, firepower, defense and rebounding. Properly used there are players who can change the pace and flow of the game or shore up holes. The biggest problem the Blazers will have is finding minutes. I would anticipate that Raef LaFrentz and Von Wafer will not be on the roster at all and some combination of 2 -3 players from among Frye, Webster, Jones, Jack, Rodriguez, and Blake will be packaged together in trades.

The bench can contribute significant minutes and in Outlaw, Przybilla, Jack, and Jones they have guys who are capable of stepping in and starting if a starter gets injured. For that matter, if he sticks around you could include LaFrentz in that category.

With another year of development the bench figures to be a strong point for this team.

Coming up next: Projecting next year

Scouting the 2008-2009 Blazers

Heading into the off-season, Blazermania is scaling back a bit yet there is still palpable excitement. Next year is expected to be a break-through season and the fans are waiting with great anticipation. We don't just want to squeak into the playoffs, we want to roar in and do some damage. However, before we get to that point, what will the team look like? Here is a player by player breakdown.



Greg Oden

It will all start with the man in the middle. 2007-2008 saw Portland struggle on the boards as even indifferent teams regularly won that battle. Oden is anticipated to change that around. He his big, strong, agile, and fairly quick for a big guy. His workout regimen while recovering from micro fracture surgery was so strenuous that team officials actually insisted he scale it back for fear he would become so bulky that he would lose the speed and athleticism that make him special. Oden has already shown he knows a good deal about rebounding in college. His transition to the demands of the boards in the NBA can only be helped by the coaching of Maurice Lucas, a solid rebounder in his own years in the NBA. It would not be shocking to see Oden pull down double digit boards almost every night if he can stay out of foul trouble. That foul trouble is likely to come on the defensive end.



Defensively he may have an Achilles Heel. He demonstrated superior shot-blocking abilities in college as his size, leaping ability and timing combined to give him an advantage over the majority of centers he faced in college. In the NBA he will still often have the advantages but will face stiffer competition. And that can lead to foul trouble...particularly for Oden who is already on record as saying he would try to block every shot. For a rookie, this is a recipe for disaster. If he is out there flying around trying to do to much he will hear a lot of whistles and spend a great deal of time on the bench. That will hurt him at the offensive end.



On the offensive game he will be counted on for back to the basket offense. His imposing size will make entry passes easy if he can establish position. The micro fracture surgery has been a blessing in this regard as Oden has received a great deal of valuable one-on-one instruction from the Blazer coaching staff. Reports coming out have his game expanding. He can use either hand for little baby hooks and has a pretty good spin move. When he goes to the line his free throw shooting is above average.



By all reports he has responded very well to coaching. Additionally, there can be no questioning his desire to play as evidenced by the incident where he played pick-up basketball at a 24 Hour Fitness since that is where he found a game. He seems to have the complete package. He has one other weak link, and that is his history of injuries.



Coming out of college is a big step for anybody. Coming out of college and having that compounded by missing the rookie season with a micro fracture in the knee is even bigger. Nobody questions the capabilities or will of Oden...the only question is how it will translate to the court. His upside is huge. If things break his way he could score 15 - 20 points a game, pull down 8 - 10 rebounds, block 2 - 3 shots, and be an instant All-Star. On the other hand, he could find himself saddled with foul trouble and only chip in 10 points and 5 rebounds. Even worse would be another injury. The Blazers franchise and fans have put an unrealistic burden on this young man but it will be interesting to see how he responds.



LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge should have received some consideration for Most Improved Player last year. His points and rebounds both nearly doubled, his defense improved by leaps and bounds, and he was a key component on a team that lost its best scorer, rebounder, and shooter...and improved 8 games.



Aldridge made huge strides last year. He was not always consistent...one game he would dominate the boards and the next he would end up with just 1 or 2. He had one stretch of 7 or 8 games where he averaged over 20 points and shot over 50% and then, inexplicably, melted down against the defense-inhibited Supersonics.



Yet he never quit working on his game. After one poor outing the Blazers couldn't find him. At last someone thought to check the practice facility and there was Aldridge, working alone on the shots he could not get to fall in the game. The next night he came out and had a monster game. By the end of the season, almost every night the Blazer broadcasters would look on in awe as they said, "Their is a move we have not seen from LaMarcus before."



2 games against the Suns tell us all we need to know about his ability to improve. In the first one, Amare Stoudemire got into his head. Stoudemire bothered every shot he took and rendered him completely ineffective. Bricks, turnovers, airballs...those were the modus operandi for Aldridge. The next time they played he made some subtle adjustments and, while Stoudemire still outplayed him, he at least held his own and was a force for the Blazers. He has no quit in him and will not yield to anyone. He has all the tools to continue to improve offensively.



He has a silky smooth jumper that is good out to 17 or 18', a developing post-up game, and is willing to run the floor. Expect to see his scoring average increase yet again on offense and for his defense to continue to improve.



He has the length and speed to trouble the shot of anyone he is matched up against on defense. His primary weaknesses are twofold. First, his long, lean frame makes it tough for him to match up for bigger, stronger players as he can be pushed around a bit. Second, he sometimes struggles to properly block out and gives up a lot of offensive rebounds. He largely counteracts this with a motor that never quits.



If Aldridge shows just average development he will soon be mentioned in the same breath as some of the top forwards in the league. However, to take that step he will need to learn to play alongside Oden who will receive the majority of the touches on the block. If the 2 big men do not play well together it would be disastrous.



Martell Webster

At the beginning of last year I thought Webster would be good for 12 - 15 points a game and a half dozen rebounds. It proved to be a disappointing season and now that door might be closed. With Oden, Aldridge, Brandon Roy, and Travis Outlaw all slated to score 15 - 20 points there are simply not going to be that many shots left. That is unfortunate because Webster has one of the better shots in the league...at least, he does by reputation.

On offense, that is his strength. He can stroke the three with anyone in the League. However, it is also his weakness. Because he is such a good shooter from downtown he neglects the rest of his offense. You seldom see Webster drive into the lane or pull up for a mid-range jumper. In fact, too often he does not move at all...he heads to his preferred corner and stands there, nearly immobile. When defenses collapse off of him, Webster makes them pay with his shooting. When the offense is on the far side of the floor his defender can sag off which helps the defensive rotations and causes Webster to become a liability.

Defensively he is a mixed bag. He showed flashes at times of being the Blazers' best on the ball defender. He even did a passable job defending Kobe Bryant and LeBron James in one on one situations. However, when the Blazers switch to their zone defense he often gets lost and leaves his area open. This gaping hole led to some huge breakdowns over the course of last year.

On the boards he has shown flashes. From time to time he will go down amongst the tall timber and grab some pretty rugged rebounds but more often than not he is a non-factor. He should get more rebounds at his size and position and needs to improve in that regard.

This position is rightfully considered one of the 2 big weaknesses on the team. Webster showed flashes early in the season and was averaging low to mid teens in points, shooting well, and playing acceptable defense. As the season wore on, however, he slumped across the board. He then came on strong towards the end of the season. He has shown flashes of true greatness such as his 25 points or so against Utah in the third quarter and towards the end of the season he had a nice string of games.

He is young and Portland loves his potential so he will get another long look and probably, barring a trade, start the season as the small forward. If he fulfills his promise the Blazers should have an extremely successful season, possibly even exceeding 50 wins. If he struggles his he could quickly find himself on the bench.

Brandon Roy
Every NBA fan knows his name by now. Rookie of the Year, avoided the sophomore slump to become Western Conference All-Star, and was getting some early mentions as MVP though of course those (rightfully) faded away as the Blazers also faded away. He is the heart and soul of the current Blazer roster.

In crunch time he always has the ball in his hand, usually for a pick and roll. His Jordanesque fake right, switch the ball to his left hand, flip up the reverse layup highlight almost always got the largest cheer of any highlight every time it was shown. It was a spectacular move and it showed everything you need to know about Roy...he is not the tallest or strongest or quickest...but he gets the job done.

Offensively he has a solid game. He is a solid mid-range shooter and an above average penetrator. He has excellent court vision which leads to assists in bunches. His three point shooting is a bit suspect but he recognizes this and does not shoot them in volume. As a result he is a dangerous offensive player.

His numbers are less overwhelming than they would be because he tends to spend 1 - 2 quarters getting everyone else involved and does the bulk of his scoring in the 3rd and 4th quarters. At one point late last season he was second in the league in 4th quarter points to LeBron James. When the points mean the most he is scoring them. The downside of this is last year, with their most potent offensive player not scoring, the Blazers sometimes struggled to get rolling early in the game.

Defensively, Coach Nate McMillan loves his game. At key points in games he would often be matched up with guys like Joe Johnson, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and so forth. At times this worked well. In one memorable stretch against Atlanta he forced Johnson into an air ball and a 24 second shot clock violation. Conversely, James and Bryant had layups. Not that Johnson is in their class, but he is a very capable one on one player. Still, Roy did an overall decent job against those two players as well.

At times he is a lock down defender in man to man and he was the best on the team at getting into the passing lanes and picking off errant tosses. However, he does have vulnerabilities to the top penetrators in the league and to smaller, faster guards.

He also is susceptible to injury as he struggled with that issue in both college and his first two seasons. If he continues to have injury problems it could derail a very promising team from fulfilling expectations.

His stats don't tell the full story of Roy's value but they are still impressive. Look for another All-Star worthy performance even if his 22 point, 5 rebound, 6 assist numbers do not improve with the addition of Oden.

Steve Blake
Point Guard is the other position of concern for the Blazers. Currently it is manned by Steve Blake. Blake catches a lot of flack from Blazer fans. He is not a high scoring guy, does not register a large number of assists, and is an average defender.

Offensively he does not shoot a lot but he has the knack of knocking down clutch threes. He shot better than 40% on them throughout the year. It is seldom you see him shooting from closer than three. He can surprise you with an occasional penetration but those times are relatively rare. For the most part he just moves the ball around the perimeter and makes entry passes. His role is minimized by the role Roy takes in distributing the ball and as a result the Blazers essentially play with 2 combo guards. Blake is a point only in the sense that he brings the ball up the floor.

Blake is the type of solid role player that can make a good team great. He does not need a lot of shots but if the opposition sags off, he will make them pay with a trey, he is not afraid of taking the big shot and does not complain about not having a bigger role. Is he a starter on a playoff winning team? I will argue that, in the right setting, yes...and he fits in well with Portland.

That is not easy for me as I am not a big Steve Blake fan either but the truth is he fits very well with their current make-up. Yet the Blazer franchise is taking a long, hard look at this position. It will be interesting to see if Blake is still with the franchise and/or starting. I actually think Portland will not be making a mistake to keep him...but time will tell.


Starting Lineup
That is the current starting line-up. It is well balanced. Oden and Aldridge should provide interior defense, rebounding, and a strong post presence. Webster and Blake provide long distance shooting and perimeter defense and Roy makes it all run. This is a team that should improve on last season's rather pedestrian offensive numbers and with a year of maturity will score the ball better. Their already above average defense should also improve.

Coming up next: A look at the bench