Will Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden live up to the hype? Blazers preseason analysis.

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 marked the NBA debut of 3 highly touted rookies for the Portland Trailblazers; Center Greg Oden, Guard Rudy Fernandez and guard Jerry Bayless. Though they have been practicing for a couple of weeks and last Friday performed in a scrimmage at the Blazer Fan Fest, this would be their first appearance against a rival NBA team.

The game proved to be a laugher. It did not look like it in the first half. Sacramento led by 10 after the first quarter and at the half it was just a 3 point game. The third quarter was the game, however. Last season Portland struggled with the 3rd quarter all season, often turning large leads into small deficits and small deficits into insurmountable mountains. On this night it would be the opposite. 

Led by Jerryd Bayless they cranked up the defense and destroyed the Kings 32-13. To be fair, the Kings were without Brad Miller and Kevin Martin, so if anything it is a tribute to them they stayed with Portland for a half. Then again, this being preseason, how serious can you take results?

One thing we know is the dominant quarter the Blazers put on was something they were not capable of last year. It speaks volumes to how much they have improved that they now have that capability.

Preseason is mostly a time to settle on rotations, try out some new combinations of players, Coach McMillan did that. In the first half he started Sergio Rodriguez and Martell Webster. In the second half he started Jerryd Bayless and Travis Outlaw instead. Was it a fluke the Blazers went on a huge tear? That is a question that still needs to be resolved.

Also to be resolved is whether Greg Oden will be able to rein in his impatience. After sitting out his rookie year he was anxious to show the fans something. Unfortunately, this resulted in him pressing. Early on he tried to bull over everyone and throw down a dunk. Mikki Moore was having none of that and Oden got off to a slow start. Once he had gotten one dunk down, however, he was off to the races.  He shot 5 for 8, showed good court vision when he was doubled, and late in the game he had a spectacular block that brought the Rose Garden to its feet.

He also showed how he can help Portland. He will be a dominant force on the boards once he gets acclimated to the NBA. When the Blazers missed he showed a knack for finding the ball and throwing it down with wild abandon that had the Kings interior players running for cover.

It was great to watch Oden. He improved over the course of the game. Early on it was obvious he was pressing. As a result he stifled the offense. On defense he was so intent on sending back shots that he repeatedly was out of position and the Kings were able to exploit him for easy opportunities. By his last stint on the court he was taking his time on offense, making the correct defensive reads, and showing everyone what he could do. For a first effort it was perhaps a C+. We saw flashes of what he could do but it took him a while to get going.

Bayless meanwhile was an offensive no-show. His vaunted penetration skills seldom showed up, he was not looking for his shot, and he was willing to take a relatively passive role in the offense. Defensively, however, he was every bit the pit bull Blazer brass has advertised. His on-the-ball defense was a key in triggering the Blazers' third quarter run. Bayless will get a B for his effort. When his offense was not there or needed he did not force it. He found his role, fulfilled it, and controlled the game defensively.

Perhaps the biggest cheer of the night was reserved for Spanish sensation Rudy Fernandez. And it was deserved. His stat line was rather modest. He shot just 3 for 6 for 6 points, 1 rebound, and 5 assists. That line is deceptive. His 3 misses were him bombing away from 3-point land after the game was decided and had turned into a bit of a rat-ball festival. They were also about the only unspectacular things he did all night.

He introduced himself in the second quarter. Breaking down his defender, he arched a left handed finger roll over another onrushing defender to score his first points as a Blazer. It was spectacular. He was just getting started, however. Midway through the third quarter Sergio Rodriguez made a no-look pass to Fernandez for a spectacular all-oop dunk that had the Rose Garden rocking as it has not been for quite some time. Later, after showing off his passing skills, he took another Rodriguez alley-oop attempt. This pass was behind him so he caught it, flew to the reverse side of the basket and somehow dropped it in for the score.

Not content with showing his flair for the spectacular in scoring the ball, Fernandez then went to work on his assist total. First he made a spectacular, highlight reel between the legs pass to LaMarcus Aldridge for a dunk. Oh, not his own legs. The DEFENDER'S legs. 

Shortly thereafter he found Aldridge again with a stunning wrap-around pass. Still later he had a high post pass where he found Martell Webster cutting baseline. With his back to the cutter and without turning his head he placed a pinpoint pass in Webster's hands for the dunk. Webster had 2 crowd-pleasing dunks off Fernandez .

It was a phenomenal show by Fernandez. If he does these things with any consistency he will be the odds on favorite for Rookie of the Year. He makes the players around him better and electrifies the crowd. No doubt about it, the Rudy show drew an A+. 

Overall the Blazers showed tremendous improvement. Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw will battle it out for the starting role. Both of them helped their cause tremendously with their showings.

Webster is moving better without the ball, is much more aware on defense, did a tremendous job of helping on the boards, and showed flashes of being a lock-down wing defender.

Outlaw was a bit weaker defensively but showed improved versatility with his step-back jumper, the ability to make spectacular defensive plays, and was a player on the boards. McMillan has two excellent choices. It may come down to who works better with Fernandez on the second unit.

Aldridge showed great maturity. His first half was a complete stinker. He waited, let the game come to him, and ended up having a nice second half. He did not get down on himself and stayed in the game.

Overall it was an exciting showing. The Blazer "veterans" such as Webster, Outlaw, and Sergio Rodriguez showed great improvement. Newcomer Ike Diogu showed a toughness the Blazers were lacking last year. 

Tomorrow night against the Warriors, there are rumors that Oden and Brandon Roy will not be playing. Last year that sort of news would mean a loss was expected. This year, it will still be an upset, even in preseason, should the Blazers somehow lose this game. And that is pretty exciting.

110-81 may have been the final score, but the final result was probably the amplification of expectations for Blazer fans.

Coach McMillan, Brandon Roy and the Blazers:The Time is Now

Tuesday night will be the first time Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez show up in Blazer uniforms in an NBA setting. Sure, it is "just preseason" and preseason games have as much meaning as the midnight promise in a bar to respect her in the morning, but there is still a thrill and excitement there.

Fans for every team experience it. Maybe this is the year Sebastian Telfair learns to shoot (but it won't be), maybe the addition of Elton Brand will mean playoff success (probably), maybe the renewed health of Dwayne Wade combined with a full season of the Matrix and arrival of Beasley will mean a return to glory (don't be surprised) and there is even someone, somewhere, thinking the arrival of Baron Davis will mean a deep playoff run for the Clippers (insert explosive laughter here...face it, they are the Clippers, after all*).

Blazer fans are no different. We have heard repeatedly this is the most talented Blazer team ever. That covers a lot of ground when you remember the Bill Walton/Maurice Lucas front line with Johnny Dawkins bringing the ball in to them, when you remember the fearsome Clyde Drexle/Terry Porter/Jerome Kersey/Buck Williams/Kevin Duckworth line-up where Uncle Cliffy aka Cliff Robinson was the 6th man, and so forth.

There have been numerous predictions of great success in the near future. Yet over and over, one theme keeps coming back. "They are among the most talented teams in the league, but they won't be any better than an 8th seed this year because they are young."

Some people aren't buying it. Coach Nate McMillan, for example. "I know we're young, but we're past that. That stuff was one or two years ago." In other words, he wants to instill a winning attitude and not use age as an excuse. He is saying the Blazers have the talent to win and win now.


If they are in truth as talented on the court as they are on paper then he is exactly right to say that. When you look at the Blazer roster, one thing jumps out. Almost every night they will be facing teams with arguably less talent on the floor and seldom indeed will they see another roster that can match up to them top to bottom.

There are really only two reasons for them to not blow past the 50 win mark, gain a decent seed, and do some damage in the playoffs: first, their reliance on 3 rookies and natural progression for a couple other young players. Second, the low expectations people have for them. That includes the expectation of them starting off at or below .500.

Much has been made of their tough early season schedule, and that is a fair concern. They are playing some of the top teams in the League. However, when you look at the rosters from top to bottom it quickly becomes apparent they should still win a good percentage of those games.

The Lakers ended up with home court advantage last season for a reason. With Kobe Bryant they have one of the top 2 players in the game today. Behind him they have All-Stars or at least All-Star caliber in the persons of Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and barring further injury, Andrew Bynum. They also have some talented role players who can change the game in Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and so forth. Overall they have a scary good roster with one of the greatest coaches of all time.

And yet, from a talent standpoint, the Blazers match up very well. Steve Blake and Fisher are near clones of each other, the front line of Gasol and Bynum will face the duo of LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden, the talented Odom will face the equally talented Travis Outlaw off the bench (if that is how Jackson chooses to use him) and that leaves out the expected bench contributions of Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez. In other words, on the nights where Brandon Roy is within shouting distance of the numbers put up by Bryant, the Blazers should have a better than average shot at winning the game. Of course, that also highlights one of the differences.

The Blazers do not at this point have anyone who does for them what Bryant does for the Lakers, what Paul Pierce does for the Celtics, what LeBron James does for the Cavaliers, and so forth. Whereas Roy is unarguably a stud and effective, he does not own the game the way those players do.

Once before Portland had a highly talented team. Twice in three years they went to the Finals. They could score inside or out, they could rebound and play defense and on any given night you might see Porter, Kersey, Robinson, or Drexler go for 30 or more points. But at the end of close games they had too many guys who COULD take the shot to actually have THE GUY, the one who took the shot.

Both The Long Hot Winter by Coach Adelman and Against the World by Dwight Jaynes and Kerry Eggers detailed how that flaw derailed the 1992-93 season and was the difference between losing the Finals in 6 games and winning. The Bulls had some guy named Jordan and the Blazers didn't. They need to develop him, and the most likely candidate is indeed named Roy.

But it is not just the Lakers. Their second game will be against perennial Title contenders San Antonio. The Spurs indisputably have better players at point guard and power forward than Portland. Tim Duncan is always an MVP candidate and Tony Parker is one of the most dangerous point guards in the League. Additionally, when he gets healthy Manu Ginobli is an above average 2 way player who can cause conniptions.

Yet Aldridge matches up fairly well with Duncan. The Blazers will have distinct advantages at center and shooting guard with the small forward position being a wash. Coming off the bench with the firepower of Fernandez and Outlaw should give Portland a nice edge that the Spurs will need all of their vaunted team defense to neutralize. Of course, we all know they are well-coached and talented enough to do just that. Somehow, year after year the Spurs look up at other teams in terms of overall talent and yet end up in or near the Finals. That is no accident. They play together, they play their system, and the sum is greater than the parts.

When you break it down team by team it is quickly apparent the players who will play significant minutes for the Blazers look to be as good as or better than the players who will play significant minutes for even the best teams in the League.

So if they are that talented, have the excellent team chemistry that is being so highly touted, and have the desire to win, why argue they will fall short 33+ times this year?

After the initial burst of enthusiasm there has been a rash of Blazer fans talking about "reining in our expectations", about "being happy with 45 wins and maybe an 8 seed", about finishing third in the division behind Utah and Denver, about gaining experience in the playoffs this year and maybe making a run at the title in three or four years.

Let me be among the first to say bollocks. Forget the young label. Forget the injury prone label. Let's show some confidence. Let's pull together behind this team, go out there every night expecting to win the home games and to have a chance to win almost every night on the road. Let's say yes, we do expect to show another huge gain, to win well over 50 games, and to do some damage in the playoffs.

We have the talent, we have the opportunity, all we need is the confidence. And that goes for the fans as well as the players. Show the team you believe they are as good as we say they are.

Is it a tough task to run down L.A., San Antonio, Utah, Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, Charlotte and Denver? Absolutely. There is some phenomenal talent in the NBA right now. But is that task more likely to happen if we say "We aren't there yet" or if we say, "Yeah, we are that good." Show some swagger, Blazer fan, and enjoy the journey, and go Neon Deion on some people.

Several years ago, Deion Sanders left a Super Bowl winning 49ers team for the Dallas Cowboys. In his press conference he said, "I foresee a lot of winning in Dallas." Considering their talent laden line-up with Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Jay Novacek, Troy Aikman, and a defense that made their offense look average, that was hardly going out on a limb. When he got there, he did not wait, he did not put off his expectations for playoff success. And he went out and delivered.

I foresee a lot of winning in Portland. I don't foresee it starting in 2010. I see it starting this year. A mere 50 wins and 7th or 8th seed with this roster, even in light of the teams they have to run down, would be a huge disappointment. The time for leaning on their youth is gone and the time to win is now.

Except the preseason, of course. That is just the time for making fun if somewhat questionable predictions and claims :-)

* I sincerely hope I am wrong. Clipper fans are among the most loyal, long-suffering fans in all of sports and deserve a winner. They got close a couple years ago before regressing. I would be ecstatic if Boom Dizzle and Marcus Camby proved to be the catalysts that turned the Clippers from second division D-League team into NBA Finals contenders. But I ain't holding my breath...

Is Steve Blake better suited to start for the Blazers than Jerryd Bayless?

It has become an article of faith among many Blazer fans that Jerryd Bayless will unseat the much-maligned Steve Blake from the starting point Guard position. The sterling play, dazzling moves, and potent scoring ability of Bayless will turn the starting 5 into an unstoppable machine that will blow opponents out of game after game as the Blazers steamroll their way through the League. There are several problems with this scenario.

First off, regardless of how much talent he may have, it should be remembered that Bayless is a Rookie. The transition from Pac-10 college ball to the pro level includes a steep learning curve. To be sure there are occasionally players who step in and make huge impacts but for the most part, teams that start Rookies at key positions such as Point Guard do not fare well.

This is not a knock on Bayless. I was pretty excited when General Manager Kevin Pritchard Pritch-slapped the Pacers* and acquired him as I was more excited about him than the undersized alternatives available at the Point coming out in the draft.

My excitement has not abated after seeing him dominate the summer league. Reports coming out of Blazers propaganda central have touted his speed, aggressiveness, defense, and will to win. He sounds like the complete package.

Bayless will bring an ability to slash, to score, and provide tenacious defense. He sounds like an exciting player with few weaknesses. There are really only two things keeping him from being the starter.

First, as a rookie it will take him some time to adjust to the League and team. LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Brandon Roy and Steve Blake all have experience playing together. They are already going to be adjusting to replacing the defensive stalwart but offensive liability of Joel Przybilla with the more mobile, more athletic Greg Oden who will demand touches down on the block. Changing point guards at the same time would mean 40% of their starters were changed and, if Travis Outlaw supplants Webster in the starting line-up the changeover would be 60%. That is far too much change for a team that perhaps overachieved a bit last season.

Second, and more importantly, Blake is a better fit in the starting line-up. Blake is not as flashy as Bayless, can't penetrate nearly as well, and is not the defensive force that Bayless provides. However, his skill set is a better fit with the other starters.

Blake is very good at distributing the ball and setting up the offense. He also provides a zone-busting, court-stretching outside presence. His 3 point shot is consistent and deadly meaning teams cannot collapse off him on the Blazer's interior forces of Aldridge and Oden. With Webster and Blake providing the deep threat and Aldridge and Oden standing by to take passes, the slashing game of Roy is taken to yet another level. It is a line-up that integrates very well.

Bayless is better at driving than being the downtown threat. In the starting unit he would not provide as much of an outside threat as Blake and would largely duplicate the role Roy already capably handles.

Meanwhile, the second unit needs a player like Bayless. Przybilla does a good job of controlling the boards and providing a defensive presence on the interior. Bayless will join Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw in providing scoring punch off the bench. When he comes back from knee injury, Channing Frye will add power to the front court and make the Blazers 10 deep. He will provide them with a bit of a post-up game and the ability to pop out for 15 foot jumpers off of the drives of Fernandez and Bayless.

While Outlaw will occasionally drive, by his own admission he has fallen in love with his jump shot. Fernandez has the ability to get to the rim but will not dominate the ball the way Roy will. Thus Bayless provides a key role on the second unit that helps turn them into a potentially explosive unit that has the flexibility to score inside or outside.

Thus Blake, while potentially not being as physically talented as Bayless still provides what the starting line-up needs and would be unable to be as effective with the second unit and Bayless gets the opportunity he needs to produce with the second line-up that he would not get in the starting line-up.

I will be the first to admit I have not been a big Steve Blake fan over the years. I wanted Jarrett Jack to start ahead of him. I wanted to see Sergio Rodriguez get more minutes at his expense. But the plain truth is, Blake provides what this starting unit needs and, while his numbers will never blow anyone away, taking him out of the line-up does not improve the team.

In another year or 2, assuming Bayless is the real deal and develops as expected, he will indeed take away Blake's job. But for this season expect to see Blake penciled into the starting line-up pretty close to 82 times.






Note: Despite the rise of the term "Pritch-slapped", I actually think the Pacers did rather well for themselves in this deal. At the cost of relatively unused Ike Diogu and a draft pick they acquired a proven solid backup point guard in Jarrett Jack, a promising Rookie, and throw in Josh McRoberts. They got what they needed and so did Portland which seems like a pretty good trade all around from where I sit. That has been the secret to Pritchard's success. The deals he offers make sense for his trading partners. They only end up looking so good because they always result in fitting Portland's master plan.

Will anticipations of Blazer Championships deprive their fans of enjoying the journey?

"Better than the deed, better than the memory is the moment of anticipation."
Jaques the Bowler (Albert Brooks) while preparing for a date with Marge Simpson.


I am obviously highly interested in the results of the upcoming Blazer season in particular and more generally in the results of their next few years. As with most Blazer fans, I expect improvements this year and hope for a Championship or 3 in the next 6 - 8 years.

I will also admit to being perhaps a bit more optimistic than many Blazer fans but more realistic than another group. I believe a win total north of 50 and perhaps even winning a playoff series are not unrealistic goals even within the Western Conference, though winning it all this year seems a pretty sizable stretch.

But what if it doesn't happen, not just this year but ever? Perhaps Brandon Roy's heel issues limit his effectiveness, shorten his career and remove one of the bright stars from the Rose Garden. Or maybe Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and Jerryd Bayless fail to live up to expectations. Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster stop improving. An ill-advised trade moves LaMarcus Aldridge and disrupts the team chemistry.

Or maybe they just keep running into great teams. Last season's Celtics were assembled essentially instantaneously and have a few years left. The Jazz have assembled a talented, versatile roster. Kobe Bryant has been given a lot of help and is still a talent capable of winning entire series almost single-handed. See also James, LeBron. That is without even mentioning to this point the Spurs, Suns, Hornets, Magic, or....well, you see the point.

In short, there are a lot of ways the Blazers franchise total of NBA Championships won could remain at 1 even when the current crop of studs is retired, traded, departed as free agents or however this core group is dismantled .

But it shouldn't matter because between now and then they should create a number of great memories. Those should be reason enough to watch. And they are created game in and game out.

For example, last season there was a game where the Blazers were struggling, on the verge of being blown out in the first half. The opponents, I believe it was the Hawks, had the ball with mere moments remaining in the first half. They had a lay-up to push the lead even further out when Travis Outlaw came out of nowhere to make a spectacular block.

With the crowd on their feet still yelling, the Hawks (?) inbounded it for a dunk attempt which Outlaw launched right back into the seats.

Regardless of whether Portland won or lost that night, those moments stick out in my mind. And there were many more equally exciting plays. I can replay in my mind the Roy hand-switching lay-up reminiscent of Jordan versus the Lakers, any of dozens of Joel Przybilla blocks including several on dunk attempts, sky walking Outlaw dunks, Webster treys, Sergio Rodriguez passes, and more.

Too often sports fans get distracted by the goal of "winning it all" and forget to enjoy the journey. That can sap out a great deal of the fun of spectator sports. Take a team like the Oklahoma (Tropic) Thunder. They will be statistically be eliminated from playoff contention by approximately the third game of the season but their realistic playoff hopes will die a few games prior to that, maybe about the time they open training camp.

Yet with that said, failing to attend the games would rob Thunder fans of memories about some pretty spectacular games. With Kevin Durant aboard and cranking up shots basically any time he feels like it, they are likely to see a couple of 40+ point explosions. He is a freakish talent who should provide some spectacular entertainment even in losing causes.

At the other end of the spectrum would be teams like the Spurs who, if everything breaks right, could sneak back into the Finals and win another Ring. Whether they do or not, it is another year to watch the magnificence of Tim Duncan with his great footwork, court vision, and passing ability. It is another chance to see Tony Parker expand his game and make some great cuts into the lane.

You can find reasons to watch virtually every team in the League from game to game. They all provide entertainment as long as you recognize the journey is in many ways worth more than obtaining the goal.

Sure, I remember the excitement of Blazermania when the Big Redhead lifted the trophy over his head...31 years ago. But I also remember watching Billy Ray do his "Rock the Cradle" dunks for some pretty average Blazer teams as well, enjoyed the return of Maurice Lucas, saw Arvydas Sabonis, and so forth.

There was that fantastic triple overtime game with the Suns where Sabonis, Tom Chambers, and Rex Chapman hit unbelievable off-balance, heavily guarded threes to extend the game 5 more minutes. I remember that just as fondly as the Championship. Or the time Larry Legend and the Celtics came to Portland for his last game here and he ripped us for I think it was 51 points. The memories are great.

But so is the anticipation. This year I expect to see some incredible moves from the talented Blazer roster, to see some high-scoring explosions and great defensive plays, to see the team develop, win a lot of games, and perhaps even win a playoff series.

I like to think, however, that even if they just tread water at 41-41 I will still come away happy with having watched some fun basketball. If I leave with a smile on my face then they will have done their job.

Ultimately, maybe Jacques had it right. The promise of the next few seasons is so great that it seems impossible for any results to match them. Maybe if the Blazers exceed all (realistic) expectations, rip off 10 consecutive 60 win seasons and win5 championships in that time the memories and deeds will be better, but for now, as Blazer fans, lets just enjoy the anticipation.

R.I.P. Kevin Duckworth

Billy got us tickets to the Blazer game some how, some way, I still to this day cannot figure out how. We both grew up in homes where getting a quarter to buy a pack of baseball cards was a huge expenditure so tickets were never part of the equation. We exclusively saw the Blazers a few times a year when they were on free television. But for this game we had tickets.

So we climbed to the top of the old Memorial Coliseum. We sat right in front of the Organ player. We didn't care...we were in the building! And we got to see our favorite players. For me it was the hard-charging semi-manias Jerome Kersey. For Billy, and for thousands of other fans, it was Kevin "Duck" Duckworth.

Every time Duck touched the ball the place went nuts with Duck chants and Duck calls...calls using the whistles Duck hunters use to sound like a "real" duck with ruptured lungs. When he shot that one-handed mid-range jumper we knew it was going in. Sure, Duck had no inside game to speak of. He was a little bit slow-footed, not particularly tough inside, not a great rebounder, and not even particularly strong at interior defense. But we loved him and he worked for the Blazers.

His ability to hit that mid-range jumper would pull the shot-blocking monsters like Mark Eaton, Akeem Olajuwon, and David Robinson away from the basket which allowed the slashers like Clyde Drexler and Kersey to penetrate the lane for easy baskets. He fit the team perfectly.

Unfortunately, in 1989 he ran into someone who performed the same role but did it better. In the NBA Finals Duck was endlessly frustrated by Detroit Bad Boy Bill Laimbeer. To this day most Blazer fans blame the Blazer loss in those Finals on Duck which was unfair.

To be sure, Laimbeer did badly outplay him and not only neutralized Duck but dominated the center play. It was a turning point in Duckworth's career and he was never quite the same after that. He was a very sensitive man who took the sometimes harsh criticisms very much to heart.

Looking back it is clear Duck was the right player at the right time. A 2-time All-Star, without Duck the Blazers would probably not have made the finals against either the Pistons or the Bulls. Regardless of those, they would not have been the same team.

It was the engaging personality of Duckworth that made so many of us into fans. We loved the big man's smile and the way he played the game. His popularity rebounded and after his playing career ended he returned to do community relations work for the Blazers. It was a good choice as we still love him.

Unfortunately he passed away at just 44 years of age. Too young. He will be missed as a community relations guy but most of all, he will be missed as a direct link to the previous run the Blazers had when they were winning games with quality guys involved in the community like Buck Williams, Terry Porter, and yes...the man himself, Kevin Duckworth.

Rest in peace, big man. Thanks for all the memories. We love you.

Blazers catch one break too many:Is the Dynasty over before it begins?

In previous discussions I have often mentioned the one thing that will prevent the Blazers from a long run with a lot of success would be injuries. Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Joel Przybilla, and Martell Webster are 5 players expected to make significant contributions for years to come who have one thing in common; they all have injury histories.

Oden has the well documented wrist and knee injuries. Roy suffered a variety of injuries the last 2 years that led to double digit games lost which is unfortunately a trend that was an extension of his College career. Aldridge suffers from plantar fasciitis which never goes away. Webster has an irregular heartbeat. Przybilla finds a different way to do it every time.

So when it was announced that Roy underwent surgery on...drum roll please...his KNEE, of all things, the hearts of Blazer fans were in their throats. No matter how many protestations that, "He had the same surgery on his other knee in college and only missed 3-1/2 weeks" come out of the official Blazer spokesmen, the Blazer fans hear, "We lost Oden to microfracture surgery last year, then Gilbert Arenas had the same thing as Roy and it took him out for a year. There is NO POSSIBLE GOOD OUTCOME!"

Relax, Blazer fan. There are a lot of good outcomes. Even in the unlikely event that Roy misses significant time this season, Portland is still in great shape. They have Rudy Fernandez and perhaps Jerryd Bayless ready to provide meaningful minutes at the Shooting Guard if needed. They have Sergio Rodriguez, Travis Outlaw, and Webster showing tremendous progress. And they have a revitalized Oden.

How revitalized is Oden? He inspired this exchange after he worked out with Channing Frye.

Reporter: "Did Oden look like he was favoring his knee?"
Frye: "No, he favors dunking on your head."

But back to my point. The possible good outcome even if preliminary reports that the arthroscopic surgery was successful are wrong is simple. Last year provides an excellent example.

When Aldridge missed a few games Roy called the team together and told them how they needed to respond in order to continue the success they had experienced. And they did. Frye stepped up. Webster stepped up. An extra rebound here, a steal there, a couple extra points and the entire team was picked up. Furthermore, it let the players figure out they could play well in his absence. The same thing held true when Roy missed a few games. They continued to win.

Will the same thing hold true for long stretches? Obviously not. A person would have to be a fool to believe the Blazers are as good without Roy as they are with him. But losing him for a few games is not the disaster some people would have you believe. Failing to resolve this now before it becomes serious as it did for Agent Zero would be disastrous. Losing him for a few games would give Portland a chance to see exactly what they have in Fernandez and to give Bayless more and more meaningful minutes than he will most likely see otherwise. In a word...experience. Late in the year and more specifically in the next couple of years, that would be a great side-effect of a bad circumstance.

So yes, it is worth being nervous that Roy had his knee scoped. But there is no need for the flood of, "The Blazers are snake-bit" or panic responses that are sometimes seen. He will be fine and so will the Blazers.

Will early season schedule brutalities derail the Blazers playoff hopes?

The 2007-08 season saw the Blazers lose #1 draft pick Greg Oden before a single game was played, lose All-Star Brandon Roy for multiple games, lose future All-Star LaMarcus Alrdidge for long stretches, have the 2nd toughest Strength of Schedule and one of the 3 youngest teams of all time. This did not stop them from finishing the season with a .500 record at 41-41.

The optimism from that unexpectedly successful season was only exacerbated when GM Kevin Pritchard signed Spanish sensation Rudy Fernandez, Pritch-slapped fellow GMs on draft day to unload oft-maligned (unfairly, by the way) Guard Jarrett Jack, food tube Josh "McBob" McRoberts and a draft pick for bench polisher Ike Diogu and Guard Jerry Bayless. With Oden, Fernandez and Bayless coming in many observers argue Portland is bringing aboard 3 of the top 5 players from this year's draft, somehow ignoring the fact only one of them was drafted this year. The point remains, a team that went .500 last year seriously upgraded its talent base even aside from the natural progression of young players such as sharpshooter Martell Webster and prime time shot-maker Travis Outlaw. The only other loss of note was oft-injured but talented James Jones whose loss is anticipated to be offset by the development of Webster and Outlaw.

Predictions have ranged from improvement to about 45 wins all the way to a rather unreasonable claim on the Championship this year. Most predictions have settled more in the middle with a low playoff seed and 1st or 2nd round exit. That does not sound unreasonable.

At least, it didn't before the 2008-2009 NBA schedule was released.


October

Tue 28 @ LA Lakers 7:30pm
Fri 31 vs San Antonio 7:30pm
November
Sat 01 @ Phoenix 7:00pm
Wed 05 @ Utah 6:00pm
Thu 06 vs Houston 7:30pm
Sat 08 vs Minnesota 7:00pm
Mon 10 @ Orlando 4:00pm
Wed 12 @ Miami 4:30pm
Fri 14 @ New Orleans 5:00pm
Sat 15 @ Minnesota 5:00pm
Tue 18 @ Golden State

Opening night is in LA against the hated Lakers. Last year the Blazers somehow managed to split the 4 game series with them although that is somewhat misleading as at no point was either team at full strength when they met. Furthermore, this year's Blazer squad is far stronger while the Lakers more or less stood pat with a team that was good enough to win the toughest Conference in history. With continued development by some of their young players and a return to health of Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum, they figure to be even better than last year.

Portland's first game is against those Lakers in L.A. The Lakers figure to come in with a chip on their shoulder after their humiliation in Game 6 and knowing the nation is watching. That makes it a statement game for both teams. Look for LA to make the bigger statement with a comfortable win.

Next up is a home game against San Antonio. The Spurs will also be rolling in with something to prove as whispers about them being too old, having lost too many steps and so forth. If Portland wants to be a playoff team this is the type of game they will need to win as they did last year. But will they? It would not necessarily be an upset to see San Antonio pull this one off. Then Portland would be looking at 0-2 with a horrific stretch ahead.

The next night is a back to back on the road against Phoenix, a team that absolutely destroyed Portland last year. To be sure, Phoenix has completely changed complexion, philosophy, and their coach but the back to back, the (probable) tough start to the season, and that mental domination combine to make this a very tough game.

After that they travel to Utah for a road game against a team that won 50+ games last year and lost I believe 3 games at home. Ouch. This is followed by another back to back as they fly home to face 50+ game winner Houston, a team that got vastly better in the off season. That is no gimme.

Finally Portland catches a break with a home game against Minnesota. Even in Minnesota Portland SHOULD win that but to get 6 games in before finding a game you pencil in for a near-certain W is a pretty tough start.

On the bright side, I can make arguments why Portland COULD win every game. Then again, only the Minnesota game would be hugely disappointing to lose. If Portland started out 3-3 it would mean they pretty much held serve with their home games. Then they would have a tough 5 game swing with games against vastly improved Miami, Orlando, and New Orleans before finishing against Minnesota and Golden State. When a road game at Golden State looks like a "break" you know your first 11 games have been tough.


This young Blazer team will be tested early and their season very well may be defined by the opening stretch. By the time they have completed this 21 day stretch they will have played 11 games, 13% of their season. That is enough time to get at least a sense of where they are at. Are they competing with the best in the league at a level that promises success this season or are they struggling?

Unfortunately, one of the things young teams often struggle with is confidence and this is a schedule that can do harsh things to that trait. If Portland gets blown out by the Lakers and then loses to the Spurs they would most likely lose in Phoenix and Utah. Suddenly they are 5 games in and the 5000 pound Gorilla gets bigger when they face Houston even though the game is in Portland. In that scenario they would be sitting 1-5 after beating Minnesota and could easily lose 4 or even all 5 of the subsequent road games. If that were to happen it would be disastrous and the once promising season would be all but done. Large boned females would be warming the vocal chords if not outright singing.


On the other hand, if Portland pulls off an opening night upset in LA and follows that up with a win over the Spurs, everything changes. Suddenly they have wins over 2 of the teams they need to beat to be a force. Suddenly a win over Phoenix or Utah would be feasible, the home games against Houston and Minnesota are not just possible wins, they are probable and by the time they start the road trip they are sitting 4-2 or even 5-1 and know they can play with anyone. Look out Miami. They could easily go 3-2 or better on the road trip and suddenly are well set up for the season.

Suddenly that 5 game road trip is not so intimidating. By now they will have seen what Oden can do, how the off-court efforts of Webster and Outlaw are panning out, how having a powerful offensive threat down low has allowed Aldridge to expand his game and suddenly they are a young, energetic team brimming with talent and confidence and they are ready to make a run at the playoffs even though it is quite early in the season.

Obviously there are a variety of scenarios possible for this team. I freely admit to being a Blazer "homer" and as such I work hard to keep my favoritism in check. Sometimes I swing too far the other way and underplay their talent and abilities. I am trying hard to keep my expectations realistic.

We will see how the season goes. If Portland wins early against LA or the Spurs they should survive the brutal first quarter of their season in great shape for a run at a decent playoff seed. If they lose the first couple games it will require a lot of lucky breaks for them to even make the playoffs. Either way, the tough opening schedule will quickly let us assess just how good this team can be. Will they just be potential or will that promise be realized? We should know by the time Halloween is over.