Introducing a new performance metric; the Rudy

During the 4th quarter of the Blazers victory over the Toronto Raptors there was a moment that drove Blazers broadcaster Mike Barrett absolutely crazy. Ex-Trailblazer Jerryd Bayless drained consecutive threes and hit four of them in about a four minute stretch of game time.

After the second one Barrett had his patented disgusted tone of voice as he said something along the lines of, "A 29% three-point shooter and he hits another one."

Improbably, after hitting two more without a miss, Bayless would have been surprised to hear Barrett lament, "A 28% shooter and he cannot miss." It is not often someone makes four consecutive shots and has their percentage decline.

Naturally, it had not. The issue was a player having a short stretch of game that reflected a statistical outlier. As a general rule if Bayless attempts three 3-pointers he will miss two of them. However, that is an average, not an ironclad statistical truth.

Bayless was illustrating a basic truth about basketball players. Averages reflect their results over time, not in any particular stretch. Who can forget Ray Allen hitting eight triples in Game 2 of the Finals last year? Or going oh for eight on the same shot the next night?

Neither result was truly representative of what could be expected but neither was either outside the realm of believability. Players like Allen, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, and so forth are stars because performances of high scoring outputs, usually on a relatively low volume of shots, are expected and taken as a matter of course.

When Carmelo Anthony scored 50 a few nights ago it was notable but not outside the realm of what we might expect from him. Anthony is a very capable scorer who puts up a large volume of shots. Scoring totals in the high 20s, 30s, 40s or even 50s are not infrequent. A night when the ball bounces just right a couple of times turns those high 20 point night into a high 30 point night, and if he averages out a night where he missed more shots than expected with a night he gets to the foul line and makes more shots than expected we see one of those magical nights where one player puts on a transcendent performance.

Blazer fans surely have been enjoying this with LaMarcus "LaMarvelous" Aldridge as he has recently exploded for a pair of 40 point games sandwiched around games tipping into the mid thirties.

It is becoming regular enough that as one individual recently noted, his career high 42 was "just" a "quiet 30 point night" until the last four minutes of the game.

I would not go so far as to say we expect big scoring outputs but I would say we are not surprised when superior offensive players put up big numbers.

What surprises us is when lesser players have those same explosions. For example, when Bayless, carrying a robust 9.5 points per game average, entered the fourth quarter with no points the other night, who expected he would finish the night with 18? It was a huge quarter.

Of course, any Raptor fan who watched the game might easily be justified in pointing to Rudy Fernandez and saying, "What about him?"

Fernandez had a tremendous first half Friday. He was everywhere. Tipping passes. Jumping into the lane to redirect drivers. Flying out to the perimeter to contest formerly open shots.

Knowledgeable Blazer fans are nodding their heads. We have seen those nights when Fernandez controls a game in every area except scoring. Recently, however, he has been scoring very well.

This is a refreshing change, as he was expected to contribute more than nine points a game. He has been in essentially a season-long slump interrupted by occasional brilliant outbursts.

Friday was such an outburst. In the first half he absolutely erupted, burying all eight shots he attempted en route to 23 first half points.

Raptor fans who are only casually aware of his playing style were probably shocked and devastated, expecting more of the same in the second half.

Unfortunately for Blazer fans, that is the difference between players such as Rudy and someone along the lines of a healthy Brandon Roy.

It is unreasonable and unlikely to see this sort of production continue over the course of a full game. Indeed, after taking and making eight shots in the first half (including six threes) he attempted but three shots in the second half and made none. His total at the end of the game matched his total at the end of the first half.

Now, on the one hand, his play in the first half was everything and more a Blazer fan could ever want. He was active, effective, and deadly. He more or less carried a Blazer team so lethargic they managed 3 turnovers in their first three possessions to a half-time lead.

He was so effective his contributions made up for Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Andre Miller combining for more turnovers than points in the first half. He was so effective a Raptor fan could be excused for assuming the game was over at the half time.

His second half was, from a scoring standpoint, so ineffective it is nigh on unbelievable the Blazers found a way to win.

But that is just the point. Good teams often have players like Fernandez. They plod along game after game providing their comfortable single digit points, a couple rebounds, maybe throw in an assist here and there.

Then there comes a game where they have one of those outliers, statistically speaking, where they score a weeks worth of points in a quarter, game, or half.

I am reminded of the night Martell Webster scored 26 points against the Jazz. Of those 26, 24 came in the third quarter. This was in a year in which he averaged 10.7 points per game. The Jazz never saw it coming and unexpectedly lost a game when a role player had a star-level night.

Most often when players like Fernandez, Webster, and players of their ilk have big nights, they come over the course of a single quarter or half.

A case in point would be the night DeJuan Blair of the Spurs had last Tuesday. He was absolutely dominant in the first half, leading the Spurs to a five point half time advantage with 14 points and eleven rebounds.

The rebounds were not unexpected. It is a pace any NBA fan might expect him to continue. He is a smart player who uses his knowledge and timing to grab large numbers of rebounds. The points were a bit unexpected, however, and it was reasonable to assume he would end the game with maybe 15 - 16 points.

As is so often the case with role players who have star quarters or halves, however, he was even less effective in the second half, dialing up a whopping zero points and collecting just one rebound.

Therein lies the problem, if there is one, with second line players taking on major and unexpected scoring loads in the first half.

If the stars are having an off night, how they respond to the outburst often determines the outcome of the game.

Talented, winning teams like the Spurs accept it for what it was...an unexpected and much appreciated bonus...and continue to run their offense to get their best players more attempts.

Teams with less stellar records seem to be more prone to trying to replicate the first half success in the second half, only to find that guy who typically scores ten a game is not going to have the same second half success as he did in the first half.

Unexpected success is difficult to maintain. But it sure is fun while it lasts.

There are some players who seem to specialize in it. Rudy Fernandez might be the king of impressive explosions followed by extreme disappearances. He seems to regularly have a double digit scoring quarter only to not score again for a game and a half.

So in honor of Rudy and with a nod of the head to the home of such great basketball terms as "The Voskuhl", "the Mario", etc., I propose we begin using the term, "a Rudy" to describe an outburst wherein a player scores double their average or more in a half, but is non-existent statistically speaking for the other portion of the game.

As a Blazer fan, let me say I hope to see many more Rudys from Rudy and his running buddy Patty Mills this year. They sure are fun to watch.

Nuggets to Blazers: We are still better

At the 7:19 mark of the fourth quarter, LaMarcus Aldridge found a red-hot Rudy Fernandez open beyond the arc. He made the extra pass, Fernandez drained the three, the Blazers led 81-74, the Rose Garden was rocking, George Karl called time-out, and the fans just knew the Blazers were off to a 2-0 start.

The win over the Nuggets would be especially sweet as Brandon Roy had arguably outplayed Carmelo Anthony, they were overcoming sub-35% shooting and a non-existent presence from Aldridge, and hey...it is the Nuggets. We hate the Nuggets, particularly their arrogant, strutting, inked up Birdman Chris Anderson.

Furthermore, even though the crowd was really out of it all night, possibly due to the combination of brick-laying shooters and fouls being called on average one per minute, this felt like a playoff intensity level game. Martell Webster and Carmelo Anthony were going all Marty McSorley on one another, Nene, Kenyon Martin, Greg Oden, and Joel Przybilla looked like they were having a WWE tag-team match, and every basket felt like a huge, vital event.

But then something happened. Anthony went all Anthony, scoring 17 points and adding an assist. Portland, who had been solid on the boards and at the free throw line all night, suddenly could do neither.

Anthony hit two free throws to give Denver the Lead. Roy hit the first...and missed the second.

With Portland down two inside 1:40 of the 4th, Nene got not one, not two, but three offensive rebounds in the same possession before scoring.

Aldridge missed one of two to keep the Nuggets ahead by one.

Anthony made two free throws.

Miller missed a free throw.

Greg Oden, down 1 with 4.6 seconds left, somehow missed both free throws, and then the referees...who whistled 60 personal fouls on the night...inexplicably could not call the 60th foul of the night for 2.7 seconds. It was not for lack of hacks by the Blazers.

Be that as it may, Portland had their chances. It was their inability to pull down key rebounds or make free throws that sealed their fate. The Nuggets, meanwhile, never panicked, ran the ball through their best player, and deserved to win because of it. What a huge disappointment for Blazer fans.

Back the truck up, though. This was a very entertaining game with plenty of grist for the rivalry mill. With Denver holding a 2 point lead and with the ball, Brandon Roy made a terrific defensive stand against Anthony, forcing him into a baseline fade-away contested jumper. It is a measure of how good Anthony is that I thought it would go. It is a testament to Roy's clutch defense that it was so tough and missed.

Ultimately, Denver still won, but that iconic duel was worth the price of admission.

So was watching Oden continue to flower. Despite being saddled with foul trouble all game long, he helped Portland control the boards for the majority of the game, including pulling down 9 in under 22 minutes. He also had an impressive block on Nene in that 3-offensive rebound possession the Nuggets scored on. His offense looked better with some nice spin moves instead of the turn-over plagued mess he turned in Tuesday.

It was also thrilling watching Martell Webster bring it at both ends. He moved fluidly, getting to the rim and throwing down a couple of tremendous dunks. His defense on Anthony was at times excellent and at others Caspar-like. He is improving game by game and it is great to watch.

I would be remiss in not mentioning Rudy Fernandez and his offensive explosion. It was so good, so impressive, so awe-inspiring that for a minute you could almost forget some guy named Roy was in the midst of a 30 point night...or that ace 4th quarter guru Travis Outlaw never hit the floor in the 4th quarter. I do not remember the last time the Blazers had him for a game and he was never on the floor in money time.

Nor can I figure out why. It is not like Steve Blake and Andre Miller were irreplaceable, combining for eight points (all by Miller) on 3-14 shooting with just 8 assists. I believe strongly in Coach Nate McMillan, but I did wonder out loud why Outlaw did not replace one of them with Fernandez or Roy handling the ball.

Perhaps it had to do with Outlaw following up his Super-trout night with a horrible 1-8 shooting night. Perhaps he just got lost in the mix.

Regardless, on this night, Denver wanted it more, and did what it took to get the win.

That hurts to write. I make no claim to being impartial. I love this edition of the Blazers team. I think it is good enough to win the division, win the Conference, and compete for a title.

Nor am I alone. Nicolas Batum pointed out on his blog that McMillan called out the team and said anyone who did not think they were ready to compete for a title should leave, that is what they are playing for this year.

Roy called out the players for their practice habits, telling them it was not a championship contender level practice.

McMillan knows. Roy knows.

But on this night, the Nuggets showed that, whatever the Blazers and I believe about their chances, they still need to take another step.

My hat is off to the Nuggets. Portland will not lose too many more home games this year. In a Division race as tight as this one, now they have the huge, unenviable task of winning a game in Denver. The problem there is that by then, the Nuggets will get back JR Smith and be even tougher.

It is way early in the season to over-emphasize one game. In fact, if this serves as a wake-up call that gets the Blazers to act as a cohesive unit, to bear down and start dominating games instead of playing close and counting on Roy to win in the 4th quarter, it could turn into a good thing.

But at the moment, it really, really hurts.

T is for title: The Blazers Season Pre-view

Last season, the Blazers tied with the Nuggets for the best record in the Northwest Division, 54-28. they then gave back all the hard work in the first game of the playoffs, getting rolled up at home by Utah. Once that game was over, they quickly showed they had what it took to win in the playoffs at home and competed in almost every road game, but never broke through and ended their season early and in disappointing fashion.

Yes, a team that most observers last pre-season thought were still a season away from playoff contention found disappointment in exiting in the first round.

They then went out and got significantly better in several ways.

First, they upgraded at their weakest position, point guard. Gone is inconsistent, disgruntled Sergio Rodriguez, replaced by the durable and skilled Andre Miller. Second, gone is erratic good guy Channing Frye and in his place is the steady Juwan Howard.

But it was not just free agents that changed the face of this team. Another year of experience has turned this team from young, hungry and talented into battle-tested, hungry and talented. Aside from that, they are essentially getting two guys back from injury.

The first is Martell Webster. He is an under rated defender and lights out shooter. He could have provided the offensive spark the Blazers sorely needed against the Rockets. While he is not as good defensively as Niclolas Batum, he usually does a creditable job.

Second, they get back from injury a guy who played in 61 games last year. But none of those games were at full strength. It is well known that microfracture surgery slows guys down for nearly a full year after their return, as Kenyon martin, A'mare Stoudemire and others can attest. So welcome back, Greg Oden.

Gone is the hulking mass of muscle that was Oden last year and in its place is a quick, agile guy who moves his feet, has good lateral quickness, has shown explosive leaping ability and excellent timing.

This is a guy who will defend the paint, clean the glass, and has shown some rapid improvement offensively. He turns the center position from above average defensively but non-factor on offense into decent offensively with the potential to be spectacular defensively.

Adding Oden, Webster, Howard and Miller to a roster that earned 54 wins last season shouts potential. This is a team that has everything it needs to win and win now.

The starting line-up looked set until Nicolas Batum went down with a shoulder injury. Fortunately, this team is so deep that his absence until possibly February should not slow this team down at all...and might even help it. The 18 or so minutes he played last year will be taken up by Webster and possibly allow a few more minutes for Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez.

Now the starting line-up will probably see Oden at Center, LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward, Webster at the 3, Brandon Roy at shooting guard and Steve Blake at the point.

This is a team that has great interior defense and suspect perimeter guarding skills. At the other end of the court, with Blake and Webster manning the 3-point line, teams will have to pick their poison. Do they want to double team Aldridge on the block or let him wreck their interior? Oden is a threat to throw down some ferocious dunks off offensive boards.

Alternatively, they can double Aldridge and Oden, only to see Webster and Blake kill them from distance. All of this does not even take into account Roy, the best offensive player the Blazers have.

There is not much of a let-down off the bench, either.

Joel Przybilla is not going to score much, but he will block shots, rebound, and generally provide a physical presence.

Juwan Howard will play in short stretches and provide steady, veteran leadership...if he gets minutes at all. Those might go to Outlaw, who has played very well at the power forward spot. His length and speed make him a match-up nightmare. Not strong enough to bang with starter-quality big men, he is more than capable of taking on second unit players from almost every team in the NBA. Furthermore, he provides the second unit with a guy who can create his own shot at will.

Outlaw will also see minutes at small forward, but will share those with swing-man Rudy Fernandez. Coming off a year where he set the rookie record for 3-pointers, he provides dynamic offense. He kind of reminds me of Vinnie "the Microwave" Johnson from the Bad Boys days. he can light it up in a hurry. when his shot is not falling, he has shown the capability and willingness to drive the lane and put up points there. His defense is somewhat suspect, but he fills the passing lanes very well.

That brings us to Andre Miller. He will start the season coming off the bench. With this line-up, there is some potential for him to do what he does best, which is to run the floor and play an up-tempo game. Fernandez and Outlaw look to benefit from this style of play.

So Portland is stacked. There second team would compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and their starting line-up is as good as any in the league.

The only thing that can keep them from doing serious damage in the playoffs is not believing in themselves.

This is not to make light of teams like the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Nuggets. the Spurs have an incredibly potent starting line-up, the Nuggets have the potential to be one of the most explosive offensive juggernauts not named the Suns in the last few years, and the Lakers, coming off a title, only got better with Ron Artest replacing Trevor Ariza.

But the Blazers are actually that good. Yes, I might be looking at them through rose-colored glasses...but I do not think so.

Starting the moment they drafted Brandon Roy and got Aldridge in a draft-day trade, they have gotten better and better. They got to 41 wins quicker than (almost) anyone thought possible. They got to 54 wins when most people thought 47 or 48 wins would be a great year. And now we are hearing a form of the same thing.

"The jump from 21 wins to 32 was one thing, but getting to .500 is a lot harder." was the assessment after 2006-07.

"It is one thing to get to 41 wins, but the jump to 50 wins is a lot harder," was the belief after 07-08.

"Getting to 54 wins is great, but getting to 60 from 54 is a lot harder than getting to 54." is a pretty common pre-view this year.

Maybe. But this team has not only shown steady improvement, they have shown they know what the next step they need to take is.

Roy, time after time last year, in post-game interviews would discuss the next thing the Blazers needed to do rather than gushing about the things the team had accomplished up to that time. And one thing after another fell. They beat San Antonio. He almost single-handed ended the long losing streak to the Suns when he poured in a "quiet 52 points". He was not going to lose to the Suns on that night.

This season, the Blazers will have Roy's drive, the return of improved Oden, the natural progression of Aldridge and Fernandez, the steadying veteran influences of Howard and Miller, and the hunger to take them higher than people believe possible.

This is a team that should finish north of 60. "It is harder to get to 60 than 54". Only if you do not have the talent. This team has the talent to win well over 60 games.

It is a team that has the talent to win any series they encounter in the playoffs. They have seen it now, they know what it takes. They have won in Utah. They have won in San Antonio. They need to get Denver out of their heads and get a win there.

Their goal this year should be one thing. It is not, "getting to the playoffs". It is not "getting home court". It is not "getting out of the first round". Their goal, plain and simple, should be winning it all.

They need to start Tuesday night against Houston. They need to come out and set the tone for the season, taking it to a decent but over-matched Rocket team. Then, Thursday, when Denver arrives, they need to serve notice the Northwest Title is staying in Portland this year, but this time it will not be shared. Then, on Halloween, they need to go into Houston and accomplish that which eluded them in the playoffs; a win.

No excuses. No saying, "it is a tough place for us to win". Plain and simple, they need to come out and show they are the team to beat this year.

Unlike last year, when they started with a schedule so brutal it ranked as the toughest start since the 60s, Portland has a relatively soft schedule this year.

I am going to come out and flat out say it would be a choke job to lose to Houston on opening night. Denver is good enough to win in Portland, but that is what sets great teams apart from the very good; defending home court. So I will say Portland should win that one, too.

They then have road games at Houston and Oklahoma City. Both are eminently winnable.

They then have a 3 game home stand in which only San Antonio should be tough. then 5 road games, with only the Hornets and Hawks being games Portland should not be favored in. Home versus Detroit, a game at Golden State, then 4 more at home before closing November out at Utah.

It would not be a huge shock for Portland to be 15-4 by the end of November. They are that good.

So yeah, I am going to go out on a limb here. The low end expectation for the Blazers is Conference Finals and it is not out of the realm of possibility for them to win a title. Not next year. Not three years from now. Not after they start losing guys because they cannot afford to keep them around.

This year.

60+ wins, at least Conference Finals is my prediction.

Partying in the streets is my hope. I think they are probably about 5-1 against winning a title, but that is not beyond reasonable to see. Lets get this party started.

Do the Blazers need to bring in outside players?

When last season started, I was considered unreasonably optimistic. Respected sites  with good reputations pointed out that the jump from 41 wins to 50 wins was much more difficult than the jump to 41 wins had been, yet I confidently predicted a 53 win season which was itself exceeded by their 54 wins.

Looking at next season, I feel confident that 60 wins is not only reachable, it is on the low end of what we can expect to see from this young, talented, exciting Blazers team. Even now, most of the same sites are saying holding steady at 54 wins will be difficult enough but a couple of wins more might be attainable if the Blazers make no new acquisitions.

That is flawed thinking. The Blazers did have flaws last year, and the Rockets exposed two of those in their upset of Portland in the first round.

First and foremost, the Blazers did not display the defensive reputation or intensity they needed to. The Rockets had the reputation and were very intense and as a result were allowed to hack, clutch, grab, push, and shove their way to a marked advantage. 

Secondly, the Blazers starting line-up had only two primary scorers and one secondary scorer. Neither Joel Przybilla or Nicolas Batum was any scoring threat at all. As a result, when Blake missed shots he normally made, it allowed the Rockets to focus even more attention on Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge which limited their effectiveness. 

This off-season is an opportunity for the Blazers to correct both of those short-comings, and they do not need any other players to do that. Before I go further into this analysis, I should point out a couple of things.

First, one reason I really, really love this edition of the Blazers has to do with the make-up of the team. Both Roy and Aldridge have been Blazers since draft day. So have Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless and Martell Webster. Though neither Joel Przybilla or Steve Blake started as Blazers, they both made a conscious choice to come here when the team had a poor record and have spent enough time here that they "feel" like they  have been career Blazers.

Second, one of the joys for me of watching a team is watching the development. I remember well watching Clyde Drexler, Jerome Kersey, Terry Porter, and Kevin Duckworth go from (other than Drexler) essentially unknowns into a team that twice in three years got to the NBA Finals. Now, in contradiction to this post, that was in no small part rue to the import of Buck Williams, but I will address that shortly.

The first and most dangerous short-coming was the defensive intensity. My bias is clear, so it is obvious that in that series with the Rockets it was very, very frustrating to watch Luis Scola body-slamming Aldridge at one end without getting called for a foul, then watch Oden get called for a touch-foul outside the free throw line at the other end. It was even more frustrating to watch Ron Artest hand-check, clutch, grab, and shove Roy all over the court and never get called while Blake was getting called for doing much less in trying to contain Aaron Brooks.

And topping that off was watching Yao Ming hack anybody in sight, yet the call go against the defender. Again and again Przybilla or Oden would get to the defensive spot first, Ming would come down, give them a full-out two-hand shove, and when they tried to get back in position the referees would whistle a foul on the Blazer big men.

It was not fair officiating, it had a huge impact on the outcome of the series, and it illustrates the first thing the Blazers need to do. Th Rockets got away with fouling as defense because they have the reputation of doing that. So the Blazers need to get that reputation.

In every game they need to come out over-aggressive. They need to learn to push and shove, to clutch and grab and foul until the referees decide "that is how they play defense" and stop calling it on Portland, just as they have done for the Rockets, for Bruce Bowen, for Dahntay Jones, and so forth.

By establishing a reputation as "rugged, physical defenders" they will begin to get calls that are more in line with what other teams get. 

That is a horrible thing to say because it is not good basketball. If I want to watch men clutch and grab and push and shove each other, I will go watch wrestling. One reason to love basketball is for the athletic  prowess they display. Their agility, leaping ability, and speed are far more entertaining that watching people foul each other and see who gets the calls. But if you aren't going to be allowed to play a skilled game, then go with what you have to do. So foul early, foul often and start getting the "respect" you deserve.

The Blazers already have a few players that would benefit mightily from this new attitude and at least two of them would cover one of the biggest deficiencies they faced last year.

First, Jerryd Bayless. He has a reputation as a "defensive bulldog" who plays tough, in-your-face defense. He got called for a lot of touch-fouls last year which limited his effectiveness but if he were allowed the same leeway that Artest, for example, received then he would be able to more than adequately defend the Aaron Brooks type point guard that was an Achilles Heel all year for the Blazers. He has the speed, agility, and mind-set to be a top perimeter defender.

Nicolas Batum would be another. He was already the best perimeter defender the Blazers had. He did an excellent job on even Chris Paul and Dwayne Wade while still matching up with small forward like Carmelo Anthony. He would only get better if instead of using his feet and skill to defend he just started hacking and grabbing anybody who beat him but not getting called for fouls. 

Inside, Greg Oden would be even more effective if he got time on the court instead of the bench. There is no doubt he commits fouls. Well, let me rephrase that. According to THE RULES there is no doubt he commits fouls. But if he were called the same way Ming or Shaquille O'Neal were officiated, he would be a defensive menace and far more effective offensively as icing on the cake.

If Portland had players such as Bayless and Batum to anchor the perimeter and Oden and Aldridge to anchor the interior, they would quickly become one of the very best defensive teams in all of basketball. That is by using the same players they now possess.

The second issue can also be addressed with the same players they now have. Lets start with perimeter scoring.

Going into last season, Martell Webster was the starting small forward. He was coming off a third straight season of improvement and had upped his scoring average to 10.7 per game. More importantly, he had watched James Jones for a year and was learning things he could do to make himself more integral to the Blazers offense. More often would he ball fake from his corner post and drive into the lane. It created a whole extra element to the Blazers offense. Had he played last season, it is not unreasonable that he could have added 2 - 5 points to his average and provided that third reliable scorer somewhere in the middle teens.

A Blazer squad with Roy scoring 22, Aldridge 18, Blake 11, and Webster 13 points looks a lot different than that same line-up where Batum and 6 points replace Webster and 13. Too often this season Batum passed up wide open shots and was such a non-factor in the offense that it allowed teams to sag off him and double-team Aldridge or Roy.

That is one reason Coach Nate McMillan tried starting Rudy Fernandez late in the Rockets series. However, it fouled up all the rotations and reduced the once-formidable scoring punch of his bench without providing a commensurate spike in their defensive ability. 

This season, with the return of Webster, he will have the ability to provide that scoring punch in the starting line-up. Either Webster will start or, should they choose to keep Batum in that role, the pressure of having Webster and Outlaw behind him will force Batum to look for his shot more aggressively. When the small forward position is scoring, the Blazers are a much more potent offensive team.

All of which leads to the most important point. The Blazers will be much improved this year due to natural development and they have an excellent roster to ensure that. Let me explain.

Larry Bird has often been quoted (included in his autobiography Drive:The Story of My Life) as saying players such as Greg Kite were instrumental to the Celtics Championships. Now, those of you who recall those Celtic teams may recall that Kite saw little to no playing time. Those years saw guys like Kevin McHale, Robert Parrish, Dennis Johnson, Austin Carr and so forth take the bulk of the playing time.

But right behind them were talented players who pushed the starters to continue to excel lest they lose their spot on the floor. Now look at the Blazers.

Joel Przybilla will never be an offensive force but he is certainly a stalwart defender and rebounder. Greg Oden wants that position. Those two will push each other hard and the result can only be that both players will improve.

Additionally, Oden should now be almost completely recovered from micro fracture surgery. With all his prodigious speed and agility, he will be much improved from last year and thus create yet one more issue for opposing coaches when game-planning for the Blazers.

Aldridge continues to improve. The last month or so of the season saw the light click on for him defensively. There were stretches where he controlled games defensively and other times he dominated offensively. Look for those stretches to become more frequent and for him to be an All-Star very soon. His improvement alone should be worth a couple extra games for the Blazers.

It is Small Forward where we might see the greatest improvement. Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw will battle for the starting role. I believe Webster is the odds-on favorite to win it, but regardless of which player comes out on top, the battle will force all to improve.  

The triumvirate of players gives Portland tremendous flexibility. They can go Batum for defense, Webster for long-distance shooting, or Outlaw for someone who can create his own shot at will. And should Batum develop an offensive game or Webster a defensive mentality, this position could shift from weakness to strength in a heartbeat.

Shooting Guard is of course the strongest position the Blazers have. Roy continues to improve every year. He knows what needs done and works on that aspect of his game. He knows defense was a weakness last year so should be improved there. 

Behind him is Rudy Fernandez. Rudy will be hard-pressed to improve on his numbers from a year ago and indeed seems the most likely player to slightly regress. Yet even if he should slip a bit, the Blazers know they have options; Bayless and Webster both are comfortable in the role.

Which brings us to Bayless, perhaps the most potentially important improvement for the Blazers this upcoming season.

Last season he got caught up in his own press clippings from Summer League. By his own admission, scoring 30 a game there was the worst thing that could happen to him. This year he is focusing on applying the things he learned last year watching Steve Blake, one of the most under appreciated players the Blazers have.

Blake is not fast, is at best an adequate defender, cannot create his own shot and really doesn't create good looks for other players. He is not flashy and does not score a lot, nor rack up a lot of assists. As a result, many Blazer fans put a lot of the blame for last years playoff collapse on him.

That is not knowledgeable basketball criticism. Blake performs his role very well. He gets the Blazers into the correct offensive set, gets the ball into the hands of the people who should have it, stretches defenses with his normally reliable shooting, and most important, accepts and embraces his role.

This year will be key for Blake. Bayless will push hard for playing time. He is a superior defender who can penetrate the lane seemingly at will. With a year under his belt, he should finish more effectively and, if he sticks to his plan, will be a better distributor this season. That improvement alone will help the entire team and take strain off of several players.

The bench should be a strength again regardless of who ends up there. Lets assume the starting line-up is what many people thought it would be last year: Oden, Aldridge, Webster, Roy and Blake. That is a line-up that can score and rebound. Defense might be a problem.

That would leave a bench of Przybilla, Outlaw, Batum, Fernandez and Bayless.  Depending on how Batum and Bayless develop, they can catch up with massive firepower or hold/extend a lead with a defensive focus. They are very versatile; Outlaw is often best when playing power forward but has also been featured at small forward and spent time as shooting guard. Batum and Fernandez both slide between small forward and shooting guard. Bayless can play either guard position.

This is a team with three primary weaknesses; defensive toughness, experience, and injuries. Natural improvement should handle the scoring issue discussed earlier and teams tend to improve defensively as they grow together. This roster is deep enough to absorb some hits injury-wise, even to key players.

And all of this is without adding a Paul Millsap, Andre Miller or other player. Yes, McMillan wants a "veteran" player, but it could be argued with Przybilla and Blake, they already HAVE the type of players they would be bringing in. Why not stick with an essentially home-grown team that is good enough to start winning championships soon?

The Blazers as they are, with natural improvement, are a talented, versatile team that can score and rebound and, soon, defend. That is a pretty good recipe for success.

Hornets overcome Cheap Shot Chandler's Ejection to beat the Blazers

Coming off their big win against Boston, the Blazers had every right to feel confident. Instead, the pre-game show, pre-game blogs and so forth were all talking about the danger of a let-down, calling this a trap game.

How does a game with a team that should be your rival for years to come become a "trap game"?Looking at the Hornets and Blazers, there are a lot of similarities. LaMarcus Aldridge and David West are both excellent power forwards. Aldridge has a slightly better back to the basket game but West is slightly better from mid range. The differences on that end are pretty negligible. Defensively Aldridge is a little bit quicker but West is a better post defender. No team would be disappointed to have either player on their roster. 

Both teams have defensive liabilities who can crank up threes at a high percentage. For the Hornets it is Peja Stojakovich and for Portland it is Steve Blake. 

Both teams have potentially explosive 6th men who provide energy and scoring punch off the bench. For Portland it is Travis Outlaw and for New Orleans it is James Posey. 

Both teams have offensively limited centers who score mostly on dunks and offensive rebounds but who provide solid defense and rebounding. For the Hornets that would be Tyson Chandler and for the Blazers it is two guys, Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla.

Both teams have superstars who can score, create, and who make their team better. For the Hornets it is Chris Paul and for Portland it is Brandon Roy.

Both teams are young, talented, and on their way up. Based on last year the Hornets have the advantage and are not going anywhere. They are too good defensively and too good at creating their preferred pace to play at. They seem to have been built on the San Antonio model. 

Looking at either the Spurs or Hornets roster, there are only maybe 3 players that scare you but somehow they crank out victory over victory over teams that appear, on paper, to have vastly superior talent.

The first quarter largely set the tone. After throwing a 13 point first quarter at the Celtics, the Blazers followed up with a 16 point first quarter against the Hornets. But the signs were there that this was going to be a difficult game indeed.

The Blazers were struggling to score. David West was bodying up on Aldridge and keeping him from getting to the spots he wanted, Oden was encountering the same thing in Chandler, Steve Blake seemed non-existent, Rudy Fernandez is uncomfortable in the starting line-up, and Nicolas Batum last shot sometime in pre-season, or so it seems. For whatever reason he has lost all confidence in his shot and when the ball comes to him, he looks to pass it as quickly as possible.

When you give top defensive teams like the Hornets the opportunity to play 5-on-4 defense, your results may vary. Sometimes they will be awful and other times they will be horrific.

Meanwhile, the Blazers defense was...well, to be polite, we will say porous. The entire first half seemed like one continuous loop of open Hornets launching three pointers. The amazing thing was they were missing so many.

It isn't often you can see a team shoot 47% from three point range for the game and still think they had an off night. They were that open. Only their poor three point shooting was keeping Portland in the game.

It is no accident the Blazers give up such high percentages of three point shots. It has to do with their defensive philosophy. They are willing to drift away from their man if he is on the side of the court away from the ball. 

The problem is, they then do not close that gap when the ball rotates to the top or baseline. This presents the offenses with clear passing lanes and a quick-releasing shooter will have the ball in the air long before the Blazers can close out. As a result, they give up numerous open looks. NBA shooters with open looks have a habit of knocking those shots down.

Take teh above picture. Batum is defending Stojakovich. It will take him too long to close out on Peja to prevent an easy open look which, in fact, is what happened on this play. Yet this is where every Portland defender plays his man. Clearly, this is how they are being coached. Just as clearly, it is not working.

Somehow Portland limped into half time in better shape than they did against Boston, trailing by just two at 45-43.  This was their chance to overcome the "trap game" start to the game.

The start of the second half was bizarre. Typically, Coach McMillan goes with his starters for at least 6 minutes a half. Somewhere between the seven and four minute marks he replaces Batum with Travis Outlaw and then spaces his substitutions out about two minutes apiece. On this night, Joel Przybilla started the second half in front of Greg Oden.

With the injury history Oden carries with him, this had the Rose Garden crowd buzzing and nervous. There were several reasons it might have been the case, however.

On occasion, when a starter is having a particularly bad game, he has shown a willingness to replace that player for the first few minutes. Normally it is Batum who suffers this fate. On this night, however, it was Oden who was replaced. That would prove key to the events to follow.

With the game moving along at a pace best described as somewhere between methodical and glacial, it led to some interesting conversations in the stands. The conversation between Josh and myself had to do with who was the dirtiest player in the NBA.

I always come back to about three players and one of those is always Chandler. He elbows, grabs, pushes, and just generally takes a lot of away-from-the-play cheap shots. In this game, he would get caught.

After an Aldridge dunk at the end of a 30 second, three offensive rebound possession, the Hornets took the ball down court trailing 54-51, their biggest deficit since early in the first quarter. 

Chandler was in the middle post area, away from the action when Przybilla extended a hand to put on his back as post defenders regularly do. Now, a little background on Przybilla.

He was listed as questionable for the game due to an avulsion to the scapula on his left hand. To protect it as much as possible, he was wearing a wide wrist band. 

Chandler, ever the classy gentleman, saw his opportunity to severely injure Przybilla and took a massive, intent-to-injure hammer blow at it. What happened next is debatable.

One of us thought Przybilla responded with a shove, the other thought it was a swing.  There was no question about Chandler's response; he took a massive roundhouse left hook at Przybilla''s head. 

After an official review, the foul on Przybilla stood, Chandler received a Flagrant 2 and an ejection.

I kind of thought Przybilla should have been ejected as well. From where I sat it looked like he threw a punch, albeit a soft one. Either way, Chandler had to go for that humongous swing. And the referees did spend quite a while looking at the monitor whereas I saw just one replay. Even ESPN pretty much glossed it over.

By the end of the third quarter, Portland had tied the game. Sadly, it was tied at 61. That is the downside of good defensive teams. The games tend to be a bit boring to watch for those who enjoy scoring. 

This one was a slug fest. Portland spent a lot of time trying to pound the ball in to Aldridge or Oden. It was not a hugely successful strategy as Aldridge shot just 5-for-18 and Oden just 2-4. 

That is right...on a night Portland more or less featured him on offense for most of the second half, Oden got off four shots. Four. 

Meanwhile, the backup for Chandler, Hilton Armstrong, went off with 6-for-6 shooting. Armstrong was NOT the feature of the Hornets offense, by the way. Just in case you were curious.

The problem with the Aldridge possessions had a lot to do with position. He is far better on the left block. He can spin either way, but when he spins right it gives him a big, sweeping, virtually unstoppable right-hand hook. 

Instead, he kept finding himself on the right block which limits him primarily to turn-around jumpers.

On this night, with Aldridge struggling, Oden invisible, Blake quiet, only Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw were scoring. It wasn't enough. For the second time in the game Portland dialed up a 16 point quarter. For the third time in the game they scored 18 or less. 

Meanwhile, Chris Paul was showing why every other team in the NBA is jealous the Hornets have Chris Paul. CP3 was having a rough night for three quarters. The fourth quarter was all Paul.

He scored on drives. He scored on a trey. He dropped pretty passes to Armstrong for dunks. He dropped a gorgeous pass to Stojakovich for an open, crippling three. He had nine points and three assists for the quarter and they all mattered. He personally ripped out the Blazers heart, stomped on it, then wrapped it up in a ball, tossed it to Armstrong, and watched Armstrong dunk it uncontested.

Blazer fans are used to seeing that in the fourth quarter. Problem is, they are used to seeing it from Brandon Roy, the sharp-dressed guy sitting on the Blazer bench watching the team implode.

Portland simply needs Roy to have any consistency. He can create the shots the other Blazers sometimes cannot get. He can motivate the team, guide them past the rough stretches, and when they need a stop of a point guard, he is usually the guy Portland counts on.

There were some bright spots to be sure. Outlaw had his second consecutive strong game. Fernandez had one of his best games of the year. Bayless shows flashes of promise. 

But overall, this game was about watching a superstar take over a game and having no answer. On this night, the Hornets were simply better. The onus is now on the Blazers to find a way to win in New Orleans, to show them that the Blazers can compete with them. 

And next time, to keep an eye out for Chandler. 

Reviewing the Hornets game and previewing the Minnesota game

The Blazers bench looked to be the big advantage Portland had over the Hornets. Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw have both played exceptionally well in the first two games of the road trip. Against New Orleans, however, they combined to go 3-10 from the field for 13 points. Even on a night where Greg Oden showed flashes of what we have been told he can do, that simply is not good enough against a team the caliber of the Hornets.

Even with the essential no-show by their bench studs, Portland was down but one at 77-76 with 2:39 to go. Losing by 5 to New Orleans in New Orleans is hardly embarrassing. And for Fernandez, it is good for the fans to remember he is A) a Rookie and B) human. He will be back and have lots of good nights to go with a few nights like this one.

But the most encouraging thing to come out of the game was seeing "the real Oden". Again and again people who have seen him in practice talk about his speed, his agility, his leaping ability and his explosiveness.

Unfortunately, in games we have not seen that. We have seen a tentative young man, afraid to plant, afraid to jump, afraid to extend. Many fans have expressed disappointment, a position I believe is somewhat unfair. Oden is only 20, too young for that much pressure to be put on him. He should be the guy with the grin cracking his face, enjoying the ride, not wondering if he is letting a city down. He isn't. Give him time and he will be fine.

Well, finally we see a snippet. Watch this block. He comes out of nowhere, gets incredible extension, has unbelievable timing, leaping ability, and explosion. This was a jaw-dropping moment for me.

I remember watching Jerome Kersey chase guys down from behind to block break-away dunk attempts. I have seen Joel Przybilla block dunks, block Yao Ming...okay, less impressive when you remember seeing 5'9" Nate Robinson blocked Ming... but the point is, I have seen a lot of impressive shot-blocks. One of my favorite memories from last season was Outlaw blocking two shots in about a 4 second span. 

This Oden block ranks with any of those. It was so unexpected and showed so much athleticism that suddenly I saw what everyone was talking about. This is a game-changing player. This is a guy who can dominate the paint on both ends of the floor even if no plays are ever run for him. This is a guy who can single-handed lower opponent's shooting percentages 2 or 3 points and keep them out of the paint. This Oden is IMPRESSIVE.

Again, as I said about Fernandez, Oden is young. He is still a rookie and still has a lot of lessons to learn. He will have a lot of bad nights but he will have some nights like this, too where he owns the paint and makes a huge difference just by his presence. 

It was exciting to see. It was a great moment even in a loss.

Tonight against Minnesota, it will be interesting to see if Oden plays. The Blazers are taking it very easy on him, for obvious reasons. No reason to push things so I expect Portland will play without him tonight.

That should mean a few minutes more for Nicolas Batum who was the odd man out last night, though I doubt he will be in the game for much over 20 minutes. Then again, after Brandon Roy going for 42 minutes and LaMarcus Aldridge for almost 40, the bench can expect more minutes overall. Hopefully they are more effective.

Tonight they will be needed to score a bit more. 82 points is not going to win many games. Fernandex and Outlaw need to score 30-40 points between them tonight with Channing Frye adding 8-10. 

They will need to keep Al Jefferson out of the paint and slow volume-shooting Randy Foye without giving Mike Miller a lot of open looks from deep if they want to win. 

They need to win this game. Winning in Orlando was a big win, one that arguably was an upset win. Losing in Minnesota would off-set that and be a big step backwards. Teams like Minnesota are the ones Portland needs to dominate and win moost if not all the games against, whether at home or on the road. 

Portland has the talent to outscore the Timberwolves and be somewhat stifling on the defensive end. They should dominate the boards and if they control the ball, they should walk away with an easy victory.

Of course, they also should have beaten Minnesota handily in Portland and that game required some late-game Roy heroics before they pulled it out. That can be taken one of two ways; either A)  the T-Wolves will believe they can play with Portland, will use that confidence and play over their heads, or B) Portland will use it as motivation to show the T-Wolves who Portland really is.

It should be an entertaining game that Portland walks away from with a win.

Rudy Fernandez: The Blazers bench is the difference

Last year tight games meant Portland looked at two things; Brandon Roy showing his other-wordly ability to penetrate virtually any defense or Travis Outlaw going unconscious and hitting everything in sight. With just two options, Portland often struggled to score. 

They were as successful as they were because Roy is so good. He could be the entire pre-game highlight reel package himself with his clutch shots, incredible drives, and sometimes stifling on-the-ball defense. 

They would have won another 5 or 6 games easily if they had had better fourth quarter options. Against the truly great defensive teams they simply could not score down the stretch. A team such as San Antonio would throw Bruce Bowen on Roy while they doubled up on Outlaw and forced Portland to scramble for hurried, contested shots. Same with Phoenix where Raja Bell would take away one option, double teaming would take away Outlaw, and Portland simply was not ready to deal.

Enter Rudy Fernandez. Everyone already knows he is clutch based on his Olympic exploits as well as his entire body of work in the Spanish League. Now they know it in the NBA. 

This is a man with ice in his veins. But it is not just his calmness...he gives Portland a third guy who can create a shot in a must-score situation. He can score on drives, he can score on threes, he is money at the line, and he is most definitely not afraid to take a key shot.

Case in point; Miami trailed 96-88 after Roy hit a jumper over Dwayne Wade with 3:37 to go. But then Portland started acting as if the game was over. They took their time, getting bad shots when they got any shot at all. Wade hit a pair of free throws. He hit a jumper. Now it was a 4 point game and it looked like Portland might give this one back.

Fernandez took the ball, curled into the foul line, spun, and with a hand in his face hit a tough jumper. Boom, suddenly Portland had their confidence back. Had he missed that, the thunderous Wade dunk over the Matador defense of Outlaw on the ensuing possession might have broken Portland's spirit. Instead they ran their offense, Roy found Steve Blake in the corner for a wide-open three and the game was over, even with a few ticks left on the clock.

Scoring is one thing. 10 Blazers scored in the game, including 4 in double figures. But there are times when scoring is tough, when it takes a certain mind-set to be able to create and make that shot. Dwayne Wade has that and it showed when Miami won their Title in 2006. LeBron James has it and that is why the Cavaliers made the Finals. Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce have it, and we all know the Celtics and Lakers are the favorites to be in the Finals again.

Now Portland has 3 guys who have that. Who do you defend in the fourth quarter of a close game? Want to stick your lock-down defender on Roy and your second best on outlaw? Okay, let me introduce you to Fernandez. And mix and match those names...pure poison. I would hate to be the coach trying to stop them.

All of which brings me to the main point. Portland is rightfully mentioned as one of the deepest teams in the League. They have 11 guys who either have proven in the past they are contributors or have shown it this year. But unlike some years, among that depth is a world of scoring.

Guys like Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, Channing Frye, Greg Oden, and Sergio Rodriguez are all nice to have. On any given night, any one of those can drop 20 points on opponents.

But it is the LaMarcus Aldridge, Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw group that really is the heart and soul of the team. They can drop 30 on you game after game for a week when they are going good. 

Lots of teams can roll out 7 or 8 guys who can roll for 20+ points  on a given night. But very few teams have more than one who can do it consistently over a several game stretch. That is one thing that makes Portland so scary and not just this year. They are a team that may no longer be "on the rise" but already risen.

When the early season schedule was released, they looked like a team that could easily start 1-5.  Instead they ran .500 and built a lot of confidence. They then went on the road and knocked off a very good Orlando team. 

Following that up, they went in and beat a Miami team riding a red-hot Dwayne Wade, a talented Rookie in Michael Beasley, and some solid players who can play off them. The game showed the difference between a team like Portland and one like Miami. 

There is a reason Miami is 4-4. At crunch time, Portland was able to throw out multiple scorers. More to the point, they were not afraid to put a Rookie on the court in crunch time because he is a Rookie who delivers. Miami, on the other hand, left Michael Beasley on the bench for the final 4:16  in favor of Chris Quinn. Beasley was the second leading scorer for the Heat with 14.

Meanwhile, Portland had Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw, Blake and Aldridge; only Blake failed to achieve double digits. More to the point, Outlaw and Fernandez are bench players who are good enough that Nate McMillan has confidence enough to put them in the game in a clutch situation and is not upset when Fernandez takes key shots. 

This is not a knock on Beasley who certainly looks like he will be an excellent pro and may even win Rookie of the Year. But the fact that Portland will start a Rookie (Nicolas Batum) and finish the game with another speaks volumes about how dangerous this team will be for years to come. They don't need big minutes from their starters, and that will matter at the end of the year.

How is that important?

Portland bench: 104.25 minutes, 47 points, 16 rebounds, and some clutch shots.

Miami Bench: 88.50,  26 points, 14 rebounds, no clutch shots. Portland was able to keep Roy slightly  fresher than Wade for the end of the game and that led to their win.

There are a lot of factors that go into winning. Portland is showing they have those, game after game. They are also showing improvement. Instead of losing leads late, they are closing strong; 31-21 in the 4th quarter against Miami, 34-26 against Orlando, against Minnesota was 28-23 (and 54-46 for the second half).

When teams have the talent to start fast, a bench that can bring them back when needed or extend leads at other times, and learns to close out games, they are going to sport a gaudy record in the long run. Look out world, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, and the Portland Trailblazers are here and are going to win more games than most teams this year. 

So start the chant now. Rudy! Ruudy! Ruuudy! Ruuuudy! Rrrrruuuuuuuuudddddddyyyyyyyy!

Boom Boom Batum: Did Portland find their defensive stopper?

In L.A. the Blazers started slow. They came close to recovering at one point before fading. Tonight against the Spurs they again started slowly, shooting in the low to mid 30s throughout the first quarter.

But on this night they would not fade away. With contributions across the board, Portland led most of the way while gradually improving their shooting percentage. It all began with their post game.

They started well, going to LaMarcus Aldridge inside against Kurt Thomas. It took Aldridge just one possession to get a feel for what he wanted to do. Throughout the night the Spurs would send a variety of defenders against him, from Thomas to Tim Duncan to Ime Udoka. It would be to no avail.

Aldridge showed the range of his game. He got assists on fast breaks. He scored facing up to his defender. He scored with mid-range jumpers. He even drained a corner three, draining one of his two attempts. But the most impressive move of the night came when he backed down Duncan and, as a second Spur came to defend, gave a move reminiscent of the great Hakeem Olajuwon's Dreamshake that had the fans standing and screaming.

Meanwhile, he was also a difference maker defensively. Twice in the first 3 minutes and nine seconds he blocked Tony Parker, once on a lay-up and once on a jumper. Though those would be the only two blocks he was credited with, he had set the tone. San Antonio would not drive at will.

Brandon Roy also had his fan-pleasing moments. He started slow, but once he hit his groove he was money. He also showed the breadth of his game. Ace defender Bruce Bowen was no match. Above average defender Ime Udoka got lit up. And time and again Roy posted up Roger Mason and time and again made him look foolish.  And he hit a trey with less than a second left in the first half to give Portland a nice 51-45 half time lead.

Roy scored inside and outside, from mid-range, off the drive, and on stop and pops. He distributed the ball. He tipped balls on defense. He did all the things that make him special. 

With their leaders showing the way, the Blazer role players stepped up. Channing Frye had an electrifying dunk where he shook Duncan at the top of the key, drove by a falling-down Duncan for the emphatic throw down. He also played some rugged defense, a nice switch for a guy sometimes criticized as soft.

Outlaw struggled from the field but was everywhere on defense. He tipped a lot of passes, picked off three steals, had a spectacular block and altered numerous others. He looked lost at times on offense, but that is to be expected with his changing role.

Rudy Fernandez had a weak stat line as he scored just 6 points on 1 of 5 shooting but as will be usual for him, he contributed in other ways. For example, in the first half he had 7 rebounds. He also made sure the ball was moving when and where it needed to move to.

At one point in the first half when Outlaw was holding the ball, Fernandez started directing him, got the ball moving and the Blazers ended up scoring on that possession and going on a little run. These are the types of moments that matter for this Blazer team. Outlaw is a valuable player for the Blazers but sometimes does get a little lost. Having players like Roy and Fernandez who are "coaches on the floor" should keep them from completely stalling as they sometimes did last year.

But the real unexpected contribution came from a guy who was not expected to get any time at all for this Blazers team. Nicolas Batum was a difference maker in this game. His stat line is pedestrian...12 points on 5-9 shooting, just 1 rebound, 1 assist, one steal, 1 turnover...but 2 blocks. And that is where he really made the difference, on defense.

Batum guarded almost the entire Spur line-up. He slowed down a Michael Finley who turned back the clock to when he was a 28 year old stud. Batum guarded Tim Duncan briefly. He guarded a red-hot Roger Mason. Most telling, at key points in the game he even guarded lightning quick Tony Parker. 

Parker scorched the Blazers all night. He made Steve Blake look positively foolish several times. Not that there is any shame in that...Parker can make some pretty good defensive players look foolish. 

So it was revealing indeed of how far Batum's stock has risen when he was put man on man on Parker with 3 minutes left in a 1 possession game. And when he was on the floor for that purpose with less than a minute left. 

Batum did not lock him down, per se, but he did make Parker's life more difficult. He showed his athleticism and versatility. On one drive, Parker eluded him and drove into the teeth of the defense. Batum recovered so quickly that he was one of three defenders who surrounded Parker. When Parker kicked the ball back to the center Batum was there to force a second pass. This pass went to the corner for a trey. Batum somehow got there in time to contest the shot. In about 4 seconds he made as many changes of direction and single-handed forced the Spurs to take a contested three. Parker beat him a couple other times, but not as often nor as badly as he was beating Blake. 

Batum was spectacular all night. His block of a Duncan dunk attempt was awesome. His tip of a pass which he recovered led to his redirecting 2 Spur defenders and converting a 1 on 2 fast break with ease. He tipped balls, he forced tough passes and shots, he redirected the Spurs offense. 

It was a clinic. It was the type of performance the Blazers need with Martell Webster out until January. Suddenly the Small Forward spot looks a whole lot better. 

This game was what Portland needed. Had Finley made the final shot, it would have hurt badly. Portland got big numbers from their stars...Roy had 26, Aldridge 23 including a clutch deuce from just inside the three point line with 34 seconds left for Portland's final points of the night.

They also got scoring from the supporting cast. Outlaw hit for 11, Batum for 12, Frye for 10. They rebounded well, piling up a 37-31 advantage and picked off 11 balls to only 1 for the Spurs. It was a close game because the Spurs got great shooting...56% from the field as a whole and from the 3-point line...and 14-15 from the line.

The Blazers finally got the Spurs monkey off their back. They found a reliable defender in Batum. They got Aldridge and Roy back on track, survived bad shooting nights from Outlaw and Fernandez, and showed they can play with the Spurs.

The biggest disappointment of the night however has to do with Batum. He is a budding star for Portland and as such needs a nickname.

Greg Oden is "G.O."

LaMarcus Aldridge is "L.A."

Okay, those are so-so. But then you get:

Brandon Roy with both "B-roy" and "The Natural."

Joel Przybilla with "The Thrilla" and "The Vanilla Gorilla". 

Travis Outlaw is either "T.O." or "Trout". 

So Batum should have a name. "Batum-shaka-laka" is gaining steam as a play off of Brian Wheeler's signature call, and it works. "Boom Boom Batum" also works to an extent. It is alliterative, it rhymes, and alludes to his surprisingly good range and tendency to provide the spectacular.

However, with his being French and wearing 88, it just feels wrong to not reference the classic German flak gun that rained bombs on Paris back in the Great War. So we will keep working on that. Under the radar local stars need great nick-names. Still working on it for Batum. 

Meanwhile, it was a great win for Portland and has them right where they need to be after 2 games: 1-1 and looking for more.

Preview:0-1 San Antonio at 0-1 Portland

The situation could be considered bleak. 0-12. O for Brandon Roy's career. o for LaMarcus Aldridge's career. Projected starting Center and Rookie of the Year hopeful center Greg Oden out. Sharpshooting projected Small Forward Martell Webster out. Perennial Championship contender San Antonino comes to town for the Blazers' home opener.

Yet there are some positives, as well. Just as Portland has lost Oden and Webster to injury, the Spurs have lost all-world Manu Ginobli and starting Center Fabricio Oberto. The Spurs looked vulnerable in their home opener loss to Phoenix. Their defense showed holes that were not there in the past.

On the other hand, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker look willing and able to step into the gap and provide the points that would normally come from Ginobli. Oberto is a great energy guy but not going to greatly affect the statistics one or the other. The Spurs have other advantages as well.

San Antonio has a better bench than people give them credit for. Kurt Thomas is a guy who does not put up huge numbers. He just puts up numbers that exceed what his playing time should show and does them in key situations. A lot of what he does never shows up in the box score. He will keep alive a ball on the offensive boards and the rebound will get credited to Ime Udoka who ends up with it. Or he will nudge a guy's hip on the way by, knocking the ball loose or the defender out of position. Thomas is the epitome of a role player because he finds his role, fills it, and doesn't need the spotlight. Nor is he the only role player help.

Udoka can stroke the three and play above average defense. Jacque Vaughn doesn't play huge minutes or put up big numbers (note the trend there) but doesn't need to...he just needs to spell Parker at key moments and that is what he does.

On the other hand, the Blazer bench has the potential to see some big numbers. Sergio Rodriguez has stretches where every time he passes the ball it creates an assist. Rudy Fernandez can score in bunches. Channing Frye can provide a surprise boost in points and rebounds when he gets time and his head is in the game. Of course, they are hurt by the move of Travis Outlaw to the starting line-up, which usually would be the headline for the game if not for other major events.

Naturally, the main storyline for tonight for the national media...and, to be fair, Portland media...is the Greg Oden injury. I call bollocks.

I am not going to argue the Blazers are better off long-term without Oden than with him. That would just be stupid. He is going to provide some great moments, some big numbers at times, and make a difference for this team. But I am going to argue they are still good enough to win without him. And that includes games like this one against San Antonio.

To be sure, Oden would have an advantage on the box in this game. Duncan will no doubt be watching LaMarcus Aldridge. That match-up alone is enough of a treat for Blazer fans. Here we have the past and present of the League, perennial All-Star and MVP candidate Duncan...matched up with young gun probable future All-Star Aldridge. Both forwards can post up, shoot well from mid-range, and play the pick and roll. Aldridge runs the floor a little better...not hugely relevant on a Blazer team that runs as seldom as this one...and Duncan is a better defender, though his expertise tends more towards off the ball help than matching up one on one.

Both players are a pleasure to watch because they are so skilled. Neither one simply runs over the defender. Instead, they use their quickness, agility, and intelligence to make good basketball moves. I have never been a fan of the "bull him over and score while he lays on the ground and picks up a foul" game guys like Shaquille O'Neal play. I would much rather watch skilled guys like Duncan, Aldridge, Chris Paul, etc. play. Still, there are people who prefer the power game that Oden would provide.

Oden has that ability to just overpower people that I am not a huge fan of watching. With Oberto out, he would theoretically have an even bigger advantage in this game...though I would argue that a crafty veteran such as Thomas could cause him a lot of problems.

Be that as it may, with no Oden Portland will switch up their offensive theory a little bit. Instead of pounding it in to Oden and seeing what happens, they will involve more people. Aldridge should get a few more looks on the box, Brandon Roy will have a bit more room to operate, and if Bruce Bowen is on Roy, Travis Outlaw will have some lanes.

This figures to be a low scoring affair where chalupas are not part of the conversation. The Spurs are very good at keeping things to their pace. With that in mind, Portland can withstand some cold-shooting stretches. Conversely, so can the Spurs. Look for a game in the 80s or 90s where both teams are within striking distance with a couple minutes to go.

I anticipate Aldridge and Roy bouncing back from brutal nights in L.A. If Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw provide anything close to what they did in that game, the Blazers should have enough firepower to end their 0-12 skid against the Spurs, particularly in light of Ginobli missing the game.

For the Spurs to win they need everything to click; they need their defense to be on, Duncan and Parker to light up the score board, and a couple other guys step up into maybe the low teens.

This game might be more important for Portland than it is for San Antonio. The Spurs are a quality veteran team that has started slow before. They know it is a lengthy season and they will win their share of games by the end. One game won or lost will not alter their confidence.

Portland, on the other hand, faces what is almost a "must-win" game. Next up are games at Phoenix and Utah, the Jazz game being the front end of a back to back with the second game home against Houston. If Portland loses this game they face the probability of starting the season 0-4 or even 0-5. That hole would be pretty close to too much to climb out of. Conversely, if they can beat the Spurs, even if they lose to the Suns and Jazz, they stand a decent chance of parleying the home court advantage into a win against Houston.

This assumes, of course, that they follow the "young team" trend of needing confidence. Success breeds success, failure breeds failure, and so forth. So in theory, Portland should come out with a sense of urgency a little beyond that shown by the Spurs.

If it comes out in practice as panic, the situation, both the game and season, could get ugly. Portland could have another 34% shooting night, get blown out on their home floor and head on the road a broken team.

I just don't believe guys like Nate McMillan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Steve Blake, and Brandon Roy will allow that. Portland will play well tonight and pull out the win.

As an aside, one thing that will have no bearing on the game but is a fun marketing ploy would be tonight's "red out". Fans are being encouraged to wear red to the game. Because, you know, the "blackout" worked so well for...was it Georgia that got rolled? So if you are a Blazer fan, wear red, show up to the game, support the team, and cheer Oden when he is shown.

Remember, he is a 20 year old kid, he has given this city a lot of hope and excitement. Don't ride the guy, just enjoy what he brings to the floor when he is there.

Blazer Preview:October

The Blazers look to improve this year. To do that, they will need to beat Western Conference Playoff teams and beat them often. Should they prove incapable of doing that, they will fail to improve their record and the playoff dream will be deferred. Conversely, if they can find ways to beat the Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, Lakers, Nuggets, and Rockets then they will have a promising season.

Recently I looked over their schedule and figure they should finish within a couple games of a 53-29 record. Over the next few days I will take a look at their projected record in each month. As the season progresses, I will look back at my predictions and see how I did.

The Blazers have just 2 games in October. They open at the LA Lakers on Tuesday and then are home against the San Antonio Spurs for Halloween. Nothing like starting your season off easy...by any stretch of the imagination, both teams should be considered pre-season favorites to make the NBA Finals in the West, alongside the Jazz and Hornets. Portland opens with arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the League.

Starting in Las Angeles is a tough way to start the season. The Lakers made the Finals last year and lost no vital parts. The loss of Ronnie Turiaf is more than made up for by the return to health of Trevor Ariza and, more importantly, Andrew Bynum.

The Lakers are a hard team for me to preview honestly. They are doubtless the team I hate more than any other team. It is not the good type of "oh, I hate that team" where I will watch to see them lose...in the case of the Lakers, it is more, if they are involved, I will find something else to do except on rare occasions. Yes, I will admit I watched and loved every second of their Game 6 humiliation last year, but that was an exception.

With that caveat, they are also a team to be feared. Kobe Bryant is unquestionably one of the 2 best players in the League. He is one of a handful of players who can single-handed carry a team. The only other names that come to mind...okay, 1. LeBron James can score seemingly at will. He and Bryant are about the only guys who have shown the capability of banging out repeated 35+ scoring nights, though a few others can have individual nightly explosions. Bryant and James just do it more consistently.

Personally, I would love to see the "tired legs" and wounded finger of Kobe make him ineffective, Bynum do a Kwame Brown impersonation, Lamar Odom become disgruntled and a divisive force, Pau Gasol's defensive lapses put him in Phil Jackson's doghouse, age catch up to Derek Fischer and the Lakers run the table in reverse going 0-82. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen.

That makes opening in L.A. a tough game.

Yet Portland is talented enough to stay with them. Let's project the starting line-ups;
Lakers:
C: Andrew Bynum
PF: Pau Gasol
SF: Lamar Odom
SG: Kobe Bryant
PG: Derek Fisher
Blazers:
C: Greg Oden
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Nicolas Batum
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Steve Blake

Of course, both line-ups are susceptible to change. I have heard rumblings the Lakers will start Trevor Ariza at the small forward and Jordan Farmar at the point. From Blazer land have been rumors that Batum will get the nod with other rumors that Travis Outlaw or Rudy Fernandez will slide into the starting slot for Portland. Those would be key changes and result in a reassessment of both starting line-ups and bench strengths, but the overall outcome would not change I do not believe.

There is some potent offense there for both teams in the starting line-ups. Both teams can score inside, outside, or from mid-range.

At Center, Oden will get his points mostly on offensive rebounds and free throws early in the season. It depends on who the Lakers put on Oden. I would assume the younger, stronger Bynum will match up with Oden with Gasol taking on the more agile Aldridge.
This match-up will go to whoever gets the calls. Either Bynum or Oden will spend some bonus pine time in this one, and expect Bynum to gain a slight statistical edge in points and rebounds with Oden having more blocks.

Gausol has shown he can get his points against Portland with a variety of backdoor cuts and soft jumpers. However, he can't handle Aldridge, particularly if he is having to help on Oden....which he will need to. Aldridge should end up with a marked statistical advantage, though Gausol will still get his.

Small forward will be problematic for the Blazers. While Batum has shown flashes of brilliance defensively, in Odom he will be over matched should this be a game where Odom wants to shoot. Batum is excellent at deflecting passes, picking off steals, and so forth but sometimes gets eaten alive by good one on one players. Odom will have better numbers but his effectiveness will be determined more by his assist totals: if Batum can force him into some turnovers it will be a real positive for Portland.

At shooting guard we find Portland's best player, Brandon Roy. And still they will find the Lakers are statistically ahead. Bryant scores more, rebounds about as well, and their passing numbers are about even. The point of hope for the Blazers is they traditionally force Bryant into sub-par shooting performances, though that is not always the case.

It is the bench where Portland enjoys a marked advantage. Joel Przybilla is an above average rebounder and shot-blocker, Channing Frye is not a huge drop-off from Aldridge, Travis Outlaw is offensively vastly superior to Batum, and the back court of Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez is deadly, providing top-notch passing and excellent shooting. The Lakers will be hard-pressed to match up with Ariza, Farmar, and Walton.

The teams are relatively well matched. Neither team has enough holes in their line-up for the opponents to exploit. Both teams have excellent offensive abilities and above average defense. Thus it will come down to who executes better.

In a match-up this close, the edge goes to the home team. In this case, it also goes to the team wanting to atone for ending their season one game before the season ended. As a result, the Blazers will compete, be in the game right up to the end, but ultimately lose their opener. In L.A. the Lakers are the better team.

The second game is against the Spurs, a team that year after year gets written off as too old. Yet year after year the Spurs finish near or at the top of the standings. It is not hard to see why. They have superstars in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli. They have excellent role players who know their role and fill their role as well as possible in players like sharp-shooting defender Bruce Bowen, energy guy Fabricio Oberto, slasher Michael Finley, and so forth.

They play such good defense that their seeming lack of offensive firepower is rendered moot. By limiting the number of possessions in a game, the highly skilled nature of the offense provided by Parker, Ginobli and Duncan is magnified.

Oden should cause Oberto fits this year. Aldridge and Duncan will have some wars and come close to canceling each other out. Neither Batum nor Bowen expects to score a great deal so again it is about a wash. Roy will dominate his statistical comparison almost as much as Parker dominates his.

With Ginobli out to start the season, that means the Portland bench should dominate the Spurs bench. Kurt Thomas has a few miles left on him but not enough to cover all the holes in the Spurs second unit. Even if Parker and Duncan destroy the Portland starters...which they shouldn't...the second unit of the Blazers should have such a marked advantage that the Blazers should even their record at one and one.

It is exciting to see that even with rather modest contributions from Oden and with Martell Webster missing the first couple of months, the Blazers are still talented enough to compete with the very best teams in the NBA.

They should split their first 2 games against pre-season Conference favorites and that will get them started on a very entertaining season.

Blazers Preseason: Texas Hold 'Em at its Finest

The NBA Preseason is, in many ways, the most irrelevant thing in basketball today this side of the WNBA. The final scores don't matter, the record bears no relationship to the regular season, and I would be very surprised to see any correlation between regular season success and pre-season success. The good teams use the pre-season to try some funky things to see what works and for little else.

From that standpoint it is very much like Texas Hold 'Em. For example, suppose you pick up pocket Jacks. You raise it, get 2 callers, and flop a set with no straight or flush draws. You raise it, get a caller. The turn is a 10. The river is a 9 and someone wins who stayed in with a 7/8. Even though the end result is bad, you still like the hand because you know you will end the day with all their chips in your possession because you know the percentages are so vastly in your favor.

The NBA preseason is the same. You might win or lose a game by 10, 15, 20 points or more and in the end, it doesn't matter. Far more important is learning how the game is played by your guys, whether frontline, second line, or borderline. That is why I found myself much more excited about a 13 point loss to the Jazz than about a 33 point win over the Kings.

The Portland Trailblazers enter the 2008-2009 season as a good team. They do not need confidence boosting win totals, they simply need to know who can help them this year and to get Greg Oden back into game shape.

So now that we have seen them three times live, it is time to give them mid-preseason grades, with the grades not being tied to statistics but rather to how they accomplished what they needed to accomplish.

Greg Oden
After sitting out a year and change, big things are expected for Oden. He is expected to provide rebounding muscle and a low-post presence on offense that will command double teams and therefore open up the offense for other players. He also needed to get in game shape.

Early on, he had just one interest; throwing down a dunk. Every time he got the ball he simply tried to back his man (or men) down and attempt a dunk. The Kings racked up numerous fouls and finally Oden got his dunk down. After that, I was looking for him to expand his offense a bit. The coaches were too as they experimented with him in the high post.

Unfortunately, that did not work well as he tended to stifle the offense and looked lost at times. He also sometimes struggled to present good targets for entry passes when he was on the blocks. Once he gets the ball, more often than not he still simply tries to back down for the dunk attempt. This leads to a lot of strips when he is double and triple teamed. Also, when he runs into teams with Joel Przybilla like defenders he is in for some long, frustrating and ineffectual nights.

From time to time he will try a short hook shot but they have been fairly ineffective. So far, his best offense has been receiving a pass when the interior defense collapses on penetration or on grabbing offensive rebounds and throwing them down.

His passing comes and goes. At times he demonstrates excellent court vision but other times he accepts triple teams and eschews the pass entirely.

Defensively he has been much better. He has gotten quicker, shows excellent awareness about positioning when shots go up, and he has shown the ability to reject anything from a dunk attempt to short jumpers you would not think he could get to, but he does. He does get lost sometimes in the zone and struggles with quicker centers who float outside for long jumpers.

His conditioning is getting better every game and he will definitely be ready by the time the season starts.

Offense: F
Defense: B
Total: D

Joel Przybilla
On offense, Joel continued what he did last year. I think the next play the Blazers run where Joel is the designated shooter will be the first. Any points he gets come from pick and rolls where the defender drifts too far from him, offensive put-backs, and broken plays. Joel knows his limitations and does not push for more. He does not need shots to be effective. He does a nice job of passing the ball when necessary but for the most part he just sets picks.

Defensively, Joel and Oden are pretty much interchangeable. While not as quick or as good a jumper as Oden, Przybilla is a sharp defender who is not afraid to bang. Just as he did last year, he provides above-average defensive rebounding, interior defense, and shot-blocking.

Offense: C
Defense:A
Overall:B

LaMarcus Aldridge
Coming off the improvement from last year and with the expectation of Oden taking over most of the low-post scoring, Aldridge needs time to find his role. Will he be spotting up from 18' or will he be down on the blocks with his back to the basket?

For most of the pre-season he hung out on the perimeter. It took him a little bit to get going but once he did, he looks every bit as good as he did last year. He also is perhaps the best player Portland has on the fast break. He gets out ion transition better than anyone else on the team, shows excellent awareness when filling lanes, catches the ball in traffic and finishes.

Defensively, he has a little more freedom to roam. He is struggling a bit with rebounding position at times, perhaps counting a bit too much on Oden to dominate the boards, but his help defense has been decent.

Offense:B+
Defense:B
Overall:B

Ike Diogu
Initially a throw-in on the Jarrett Jack trade, Diogu got a chance to play after Channing Frye went down with injury. Diogu is a rugged player who always seems to be in the midst of violent contact. He puts forth a tremendous amount of effort every night.

Offensively he is at best raw. When he gets the ball close to the basket he generally tries to muscle his way to the rim. Unfortunately, he often does this against taller, stronger, more agile defenders. He mixes it up occasionally with a turn-around jumper of dubious effectiveness.

He does show a knack for picking up offensive boards. He does not, however, play well alongside similar players. There was one memorable possession where he and Oden fought each other so ferociously for the ball that it took 5 or 6 lay-up attempts before the Jazz could get close enough to them to even foul them.

Defensively he is good against back-to-the-basket bangers. Against more mobile forwards or in the zone he often gets lost and gives up too many easy backdoor layups.

Offense:D
Defense:C
Overall:C

Travis Outlaw
Outlaw was Mr. Clutch for Portland, arguably more important to their fourth quarter success than even Brandon Roy. His ability to create his own shot and fearlessness about doing so were valuable commodities. When Martell Webster went out with injury, the starting Small Forward position theoretically opened up for him. It is Coach McMillan's decision, of course, but it looks to me like he has played himself out of that slot. That hurts because I am a HUGE Outlaw mark. I think he was key to their resurgence last year and has to be a huge contributor this year for them to have success.

Offensively he has regressed. Still unafraid to take a good shot, he is also unafraid to take a mediocre shot. Or a bad shot. Or a horrific shot, the kind that leave you shaking your head and wondering what you just saw.

Somewhere over the off-season, Outlaw forgot how to pass. He has become the ultimate black hole. I stared in disbelief as he passed up an easy pass to an unguarded Oden in favor of dribbling right to take a step back fall-away 3-pointer while moving to his right over 2 defenders.

Anytime he touches the ball on the offensive end now you expect to see a shot. Of course, he has such great jumping ability and such long arms that a lot of those shots fall. But it also inhibits the team offense and causes much more difficult attempts than necessary.

Defensively he also seems to have regressed. He has been getting burned repeatedly both in man to man and zone coverage schemes. He also seems disinterested in helping out on the boards. For a player of his height, leaping ability, and talent to have no rebounds in a game as he has threatened to do more than once in this preseason is inexcusable.

Portland needs him to turn his game around. Outlaw needs to be the focal point of the offense and is not adjusting well to needing to be the 4th option. Hopefully he stays on the second unit and returns to playing his game.

Offense:F
Defense:D
Overall:D-

Nicolas Batum
Prior to his arrival we had heard he was an above average defender with no offense to his game. Summer League reinforced this to the point where it was an open question whether bringing him in this year was a mistake or not.

In the first game against the Kings he was fouled. When he stepped to the line I laughed and commented to my wife, "He better make these. They might be his best chance to score all year." About 2 possessions later he shut me up with a gorgeous baseline drive and dunk.

Offensively, he has blossomed. He has a nice 3-point stroke, can drive just often enough to keep defenses honest, and is the Blazer's best shooter coming off a screen for a catch and shoot. His passing is pedestrian but for someone whom nothing was expected of offensively, he has been a revelation.

Defensively, if anything he was undersold. Batum shows some unbelievable instincts. He made 3 or 4 plays against the Jazz alone that had me out of my seat cheering. He is so long that he makes it all but impossible to get a pass by him unless you first move him out of the way. Again and again he steps into passing lanes it seems impossible for him to reach, tips or deflects those he cannot grab outright. He also can block shots both coming off his guy to help or straight up blocking his man.

Against the Jazz, AK-47 was killing Portland but when Batum started covering him, suddenly Kirilenko became a non-factor. He has the potential to be a lock-down defender with a little offensive punch. He also is more than willing to go down in the paint with the big boys and come away with a tough rebound.

Offense:A
Defense:A+
Overall:A

Brandon Roy
I have only seen Roy once this year. He played about 20 minutes in the first pre-season game. That was plenty. He is picking up right where he left off. He scores almost at will, including an improved looking three-ball, he passes as well as anyone in the League, and he makes the offense better.

Defensively, he does a great job of getting in the lanes, is a more than capable on-ball defender, and he is an excellent ancillary rebounder.

The only concerns about Roy are health and those are being dealt with by playing him sparingly.

Offense: Incomplete, but an A when in there
Defense: Incomplete, but an A when in there
Overall:Incomplete

Rudy Fernandez
His first game was the stuff legends are made of. He scored 6 points on 3 buckets, any of which would not have been out of place on the ESPN highlight package. But it was his passing that was spectacular. His passing was so good it made his alley-oop throwdown look lame.

His offense is spectacular. He can penetrate the lane, find open spots to pass to where none seem to exist, he can drop the mid-range jumper, the 3-ball, or dunk with seemingly equal ease. His does tend to have a couple more turnovers that you might like, but at least a few of those are attributable to his teammates not expecting passes. Once they adjust his turnover total will decrease and Blazer dunk totals increase.

Defensively he is all over the board. On one possession he will look like he has never played defense before and on the next he will force a turnover or a tough shot. He tends to prefer playing help-defense to matching up with his man.

He will also acquire more than his share of rebounds. He has the best offensive court awareness on the team outside of Roy. He teams marvelously well with Sergio Rodriguez and together they have the ability to turn the Blazers into a dynamic half-court team.

Offense: A-
Defense:B-
Overall:B

Jerryd Bayless
Bayless is another Rookie with high expectations. He is rumored to be a lock-down on-ball defender who can penetrate at will on offense.

That was summer league. The preseason has been a bit different. Hardly shy about taking his shot, he has not proven to be ready to take those shots. He has gotten into the lane with great frequency but he then tends to force up tough, contested shots instead of finding the open man. He has some potential to score and there will be nights where he is unstoppable. But there will also be nights that will have McMillan pulling his hair out.

His court vision is suspect and that will cost him a lot of minutes. If he does not find his rhythm, his shaky shot will cost him more.

Defensively, he is a good but not great on the ball defender. He tends to go for a first move too often and leaves himself vulnerable to quick guards with good ball-handling skills. He shows flashes of what he can do but is not the stopper Portland needs yet.

Offense:C
Defense:C
Overall:C

Sergio Rodriguez
Rodriguez needed to make a statement with Steve Blake out. Once the regular season starts, minutes when Steve Blake returns to the line-up he will be hard pressed to make a case for playing more. He has gotten an extended look in the preseason so it behooves him to make his case now.

Offensively he has improved a great deal. His shot looks better and he makes fewer flashy passes and more fundamental, effective passes. He still has the ability to penetrate, draw the defender and deliver to the open man.

He still turns the ball over way too often, however. Unless he finds a way to decrease his turnovers by half he will continue developing butt splinters from the pine time.

Defensively he is much improved, though still a below average defender. He allows his man too much freedom to move and does not do a good job of blocking off angles. He looks effective because he comes up with a decent number of steals but he can be the weak point in the Blazer defense.

Offense:B
Defense:C-
Overall:B-

Martell Webster, Channing Frye both get incompletes due to injury.

Overall, it is very exciting. The Blazers have shown their second and sometimes third units can hold their own against even the Jazz starting line-up for short stretches. The Blazers will win a lot of games via bench, a lot of games via defense, and a lot of games because their starters are so talented.

We saw improvement from most of the players and even some of the poor grades (See Oden, Greg) have more to do with potential than performance. Oden would be a major contributor with the game he showed but has the potential to be a game-breaker if he decides not to dunk everything but instead show some of the skill we know he has.

And when Webster and Frye come back, it only makes an already top shelf, versatile, deep roster even better. The more I see, the more I think this could be the year the Blazers go much deeper in the playoffs than a lot of people think they should. If Portland can get off to a good start in their first 6 games they might not be stopped. Conversely, if they start slow and are 4 or 5 games under .500 after 10 games, the hole might be too deep to get out of. I think the former result more likely.

Then again, in pre-season pretty much everybody looks good.