Blazer Preview:October

The Blazers look to improve this year. To do that, they will need to beat Western Conference Playoff teams and beat them often. Should they prove incapable of doing that, they will fail to improve their record and the playoff dream will be deferred. Conversely, if they can find ways to beat the Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Hornets, Lakers, Nuggets, and Rockets then they will have a promising season.

Recently I looked over their schedule and figure they should finish within a couple games of a 53-29 record. Over the next few days I will take a look at their projected record in each month. As the season progresses, I will look back at my predictions and see how I did.

The Blazers have just 2 games in October. They open at the LA Lakers on Tuesday and then are home against the San Antonio Spurs for Halloween. Nothing like starting your season off easy...by any stretch of the imagination, both teams should be considered pre-season favorites to make the NBA Finals in the West, alongside the Jazz and Hornets. Portland opens with arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the League.

Starting in Las Angeles is a tough way to start the season. The Lakers made the Finals last year and lost no vital parts. The loss of Ronnie Turiaf is more than made up for by the return to health of Trevor Ariza and, more importantly, Andrew Bynum.

The Lakers are a hard team for me to preview honestly. They are doubtless the team I hate more than any other team. It is not the good type of "oh, I hate that team" where I will watch to see them lose...in the case of the Lakers, it is more, if they are involved, I will find something else to do except on rare occasions. Yes, I will admit I watched and loved every second of their Game 6 humiliation last year, but that was an exception.

With that caveat, they are also a team to be feared. Kobe Bryant is unquestionably one of the 2 best players in the League. He is one of a handful of players who can single-handed carry a team. The only other names that come to mind...okay, 1. LeBron James can score seemingly at will. He and Bryant are about the only guys who have shown the capability of banging out repeated 35+ scoring nights, though a few others can have individual nightly explosions. Bryant and James just do it more consistently.

Personally, I would love to see the "tired legs" and wounded finger of Kobe make him ineffective, Bynum do a Kwame Brown impersonation, Lamar Odom become disgruntled and a divisive force, Pau Gasol's defensive lapses put him in Phil Jackson's doghouse, age catch up to Derek Fischer and the Lakers run the table in reverse going 0-82. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen.

That makes opening in L.A. a tough game.

Yet Portland is talented enough to stay with them. Let's project the starting line-ups;
Lakers:
C: Andrew Bynum
PF: Pau Gasol
SF: Lamar Odom
SG: Kobe Bryant
PG: Derek Fisher
Blazers:
C: Greg Oden
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
SF: Nicolas Batum
SG: Brandon Roy
PG: Steve Blake

Of course, both line-ups are susceptible to change. I have heard rumblings the Lakers will start Trevor Ariza at the small forward and Jordan Farmar at the point. From Blazer land have been rumors that Batum will get the nod with other rumors that Travis Outlaw or Rudy Fernandez will slide into the starting slot for Portland. Those would be key changes and result in a reassessment of both starting line-ups and bench strengths, but the overall outcome would not change I do not believe.

There is some potent offense there for both teams in the starting line-ups. Both teams can score inside, outside, or from mid-range.

At Center, Oden will get his points mostly on offensive rebounds and free throws early in the season. It depends on who the Lakers put on Oden. I would assume the younger, stronger Bynum will match up with Oden with Gasol taking on the more agile Aldridge.
This match-up will go to whoever gets the calls. Either Bynum or Oden will spend some bonus pine time in this one, and expect Bynum to gain a slight statistical edge in points and rebounds with Oden having more blocks.

Gausol has shown he can get his points against Portland with a variety of backdoor cuts and soft jumpers. However, he can't handle Aldridge, particularly if he is having to help on Oden....which he will need to. Aldridge should end up with a marked statistical advantage, though Gausol will still get his.

Small forward will be problematic for the Blazers. While Batum has shown flashes of brilliance defensively, in Odom he will be over matched should this be a game where Odom wants to shoot. Batum is excellent at deflecting passes, picking off steals, and so forth but sometimes gets eaten alive by good one on one players. Odom will have better numbers but his effectiveness will be determined more by his assist totals: if Batum can force him into some turnovers it will be a real positive for Portland.

At shooting guard we find Portland's best player, Brandon Roy. And still they will find the Lakers are statistically ahead. Bryant scores more, rebounds about as well, and their passing numbers are about even. The point of hope for the Blazers is they traditionally force Bryant into sub-par shooting performances, though that is not always the case.

It is the bench where Portland enjoys a marked advantage. Joel Przybilla is an above average rebounder and shot-blocker, Channing Frye is not a huge drop-off from Aldridge, Travis Outlaw is offensively vastly superior to Batum, and the back court of Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez is deadly, providing top-notch passing and excellent shooting. The Lakers will be hard-pressed to match up with Ariza, Farmar, and Walton.

The teams are relatively well matched. Neither team has enough holes in their line-up for the opponents to exploit. Both teams have excellent offensive abilities and above average defense. Thus it will come down to who executes better.

In a match-up this close, the edge goes to the home team. In this case, it also goes to the team wanting to atone for ending their season one game before the season ended. As a result, the Blazers will compete, be in the game right up to the end, but ultimately lose their opener. In L.A. the Lakers are the better team.

The second game is against the Spurs, a team that year after year gets written off as too old. Yet year after year the Spurs finish near or at the top of the standings. It is not hard to see why. They have superstars in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli. They have excellent role players who know their role and fill their role as well as possible in players like sharp-shooting defender Bruce Bowen, energy guy Fabricio Oberto, slasher Michael Finley, and so forth.

They play such good defense that their seeming lack of offensive firepower is rendered moot. By limiting the number of possessions in a game, the highly skilled nature of the offense provided by Parker, Ginobli and Duncan is magnified.

Oden should cause Oberto fits this year. Aldridge and Duncan will have some wars and come close to canceling each other out. Neither Batum nor Bowen expects to score a great deal so again it is about a wash. Roy will dominate his statistical comparison almost as much as Parker dominates his.

With Ginobli out to start the season, that means the Portland bench should dominate the Spurs bench. Kurt Thomas has a few miles left on him but not enough to cover all the holes in the Spurs second unit. Even if Parker and Duncan destroy the Portland starters...which they shouldn't...the second unit of the Blazers should have such a marked advantage that the Blazers should even their record at one and one.

It is exciting to see that even with rather modest contributions from Oden and with Martell Webster missing the first couple of months, the Blazers are still talented enough to compete with the very best teams in the NBA.

They should split their first 2 games against pre-season Conference favorites and that will get them started on a very entertaining season.

Blazers Preseason: Texas Hold 'Em at its Finest

The NBA Preseason is, in many ways, the most irrelevant thing in basketball today this side of the WNBA. The final scores don't matter, the record bears no relationship to the regular season, and I would be very surprised to see any correlation between regular season success and pre-season success. The good teams use the pre-season to try some funky things to see what works and for little else.

From that standpoint it is very much like Texas Hold 'Em. For example, suppose you pick up pocket Jacks. You raise it, get 2 callers, and flop a set with no straight or flush draws. You raise it, get a caller. The turn is a 10. The river is a 9 and someone wins who stayed in with a 7/8. Even though the end result is bad, you still like the hand because you know you will end the day with all their chips in your possession because you know the percentages are so vastly in your favor.

The NBA preseason is the same. You might win or lose a game by 10, 15, 20 points or more and in the end, it doesn't matter. Far more important is learning how the game is played by your guys, whether frontline, second line, or borderline. That is why I found myself much more excited about a 13 point loss to the Jazz than about a 33 point win over the Kings.

The Portland Trailblazers enter the 2008-2009 season as a good team. They do not need confidence boosting win totals, they simply need to know who can help them this year and to get Greg Oden back into game shape.

So now that we have seen them three times live, it is time to give them mid-preseason grades, with the grades not being tied to statistics but rather to how they accomplished what they needed to accomplish.

Greg Oden
After sitting out a year and change, big things are expected for Oden. He is expected to provide rebounding muscle and a low-post presence on offense that will command double teams and therefore open up the offense for other players. He also needed to get in game shape.

Early on, he had just one interest; throwing down a dunk. Every time he got the ball he simply tried to back his man (or men) down and attempt a dunk. The Kings racked up numerous fouls and finally Oden got his dunk down. After that, I was looking for him to expand his offense a bit. The coaches were too as they experimented with him in the high post.

Unfortunately, that did not work well as he tended to stifle the offense and looked lost at times. He also sometimes struggled to present good targets for entry passes when he was on the blocks. Once he gets the ball, more often than not he still simply tries to back down for the dunk attempt. This leads to a lot of strips when he is double and triple teamed. Also, when he runs into teams with Joel Przybilla like defenders he is in for some long, frustrating and ineffectual nights.

From time to time he will try a short hook shot but they have been fairly ineffective. So far, his best offense has been receiving a pass when the interior defense collapses on penetration or on grabbing offensive rebounds and throwing them down.

His passing comes and goes. At times he demonstrates excellent court vision but other times he accepts triple teams and eschews the pass entirely.

Defensively he has been much better. He has gotten quicker, shows excellent awareness about positioning when shots go up, and he has shown the ability to reject anything from a dunk attempt to short jumpers you would not think he could get to, but he does. He does get lost sometimes in the zone and struggles with quicker centers who float outside for long jumpers.

His conditioning is getting better every game and he will definitely be ready by the time the season starts.

Offense: F
Defense: B
Total: D

Joel Przybilla
On offense, Joel continued what he did last year. I think the next play the Blazers run where Joel is the designated shooter will be the first. Any points he gets come from pick and rolls where the defender drifts too far from him, offensive put-backs, and broken plays. Joel knows his limitations and does not push for more. He does not need shots to be effective. He does a nice job of passing the ball when necessary but for the most part he just sets picks.

Defensively, Joel and Oden are pretty much interchangeable. While not as quick or as good a jumper as Oden, Przybilla is a sharp defender who is not afraid to bang. Just as he did last year, he provides above-average defensive rebounding, interior defense, and shot-blocking.

Offense: C
Defense:A
Overall:B

LaMarcus Aldridge
Coming off the improvement from last year and with the expectation of Oden taking over most of the low-post scoring, Aldridge needs time to find his role. Will he be spotting up from 18' or will he be down on the blocks with his back to the basket?

For most of the pre-season he hung out on the perimeter. It took him a little bit to get going but once he did, he looks every bit as good as he did last year. He also is perhaps the best player Portland has on the fast break. He gets out ion transition better than anyone else on the team, shows excellent awareness when filling lanes, catches the ball in traffic and finishes.

Defensively, he has a little more freedom to roam. He is struggling a bit with rebounding position at times, perhaps counting a bit too much on Oden to dominate the boards, but his help defense has been decent.

Offense:B+
Defense:B
Overall:B

Ike Diogu
Initially a throw-in on the Jarrett Jack trade, Diogu got a chance to play after Channing Frye went down with injury. Diogu is a rugged player who always seems to be in the midst of violent contact. He puts forth a tremendous amount of effort every night.

Offensively he is at best raw. When he gets the ball close to the basket he generally tries to muscle his way to the rim. Unfortunately, he often does this against taller, stronger, more agile defenders. He mixes it up occasionally with a turn-around jumper of dubious effectiveness.

He does show a knack for picking up offensive boards. He does not, however, play well alongside similar players. There was one memorable possession where he and Oden fought each other so ferociously for the ball that it took 5 or 6 lay-up attempts before the Jazz could get close enough to them to even foul them.

Defensively he is good against back-to-the-basket bangers. Against more mobile forwards or in the zone he often gets lost and gives up too many easy backdoor layups.

Offense:D
Defense:C
Overall:C

Travis Outlaw
Outlaw was Mr. Clutch for Portland, arguably more important to their fourth quarter success than even Brandon Roy. His ability to create his own shot and fearlessness about doing so were valuable commodities. When Martell Webster went out with injury, the starting Small Forward position theoretically opened up for him. It is Coach McMillan's decision, of course, but it looks to me like he has played himself out of that slot. That hurts because I am a HUGE Outlaw mark. I think he was key to their resurgence last year and has to be a huge contributor this year for them to have success.

Offensively he has regressed. Still unafraid to take a good shot, he is also unafraid to take a mediocre shot. Or a bad shot. Or a horrific shot, the kind that leave you shaking your head and wondering what you just saw.

Somewhere over the off-season, Outlaw forgot how to pass. He has become the ultimate black hole. I stared in disbelief as he passed up an easy pass to an unguarded Oden in favor of dribbling right to take a step back fall-away 3-pointer while moving to his right over 2 defenders.

Anytime he touches the ball on the offensive end now you expect to see a shot. Of course, he has such great jumping ability and such long arms that a lot of those shots fall. But it also inhibits the team offense and causes much more difficult attempts than necessary.

Defensively he also seems to have regressed. He has been getting burned repeatedly both in man to man and zone coverage schemes. He also seems disinterested in helping out on the boards. For a player of his height, leaping ability, and talent to have no rebounds in a game as he has threatened to do more than once in this preseason is inexcusable.

Portland needs him to turn his game around. Outlaw needs to be the focal point of the offense and is not adjusting well to needing to be the 4th option. Hopefully he stays on the second unit and returns to playing his game.

Offense:F
Defense:D
Overall:D-

Nicolas Batum
Prior to his arrival we had heard he was an above average defender with no offense to his game. Summer League reinforced this to the point where it was an open question whether bringing him in this year was a mistake or not.

In the first game against the Kings he was fouled. When he stepped to the line I laughed and commented to my wife, "He better make these. They might be his best chance to score all year." About 2 possessions later he shut me up with a gorgeous baseline drive and dunk.

Offensively, he has blossomed. He has a nice 3-point stroke, can drive just often enough to keep defenses honest, and is the Blazer's best shooter coming off a screen for a catch and shoot. His passing is pedestrian but for someone whom nothing was expected of offensively, he has been a revelation.

Defensively, if anything he was undersold. Batum shows some unbelievable instincts. He made 3 or 4 plays against the Jazz alone that had me out of my seat cheering. He is so long that he makes it all but impossible to get a pass by him unless you first move him out of the way. Again and again he steps into passing lanes it seems impossible for him to reach, tips or deflects those he cannot grab outright. He also can block shots both coming off his guy to help or straight up blocking his man.

Against the Jazz, AK-47 was killing Portland but when Batum started covering him, suddenly Kirilenko became a non-factor. He has the potential to be a lock-down defender with a little offensive punch. He also is more than willing to go down in the paint with the big boys and come away with a tough rebound.

Offense:A
Defense:A+
Overall:A

Brandon Roy
I have only seen Roy once this year. He played about 20 minutes in the first pre-season game. That was plenty. He is picking up right where he left off. He scores almost at will, including an improved looking three-ball, he passes as well as anyone in the League, and he makes the offense better.

Defensively, he does a great job of getting in the lanes, is a more than capable on-ball defender, and he is an excellent ancillary rebounder.

The only concerns about Roy are health and those are being dealt with by playing him sparingly.

Offense: Incomplete, but an A when in there
Defense: Incomplete, but an A when in there
Overall:Incomplete

Rudy Fernandez
His first game was the stuff legends are made of. He scored 6 points on 3 buckets, any of which would not have been out of place on the ESPN highlight package. But it was his passing that was spectacular. His passing was so good it made his alley-oop throwdown look lame.

His offense is spectacular. He can penetrate the lane, find open spots to pass to where none seem to exist, he can drop the mid-range jumper, the 3-ball, or dunk with seemingly equal ease. His does tend to have a couple more turnovers that you might like, but at least a few of those are attributable to his teammates not expecting passes. Once they adjust his turnover total will decrease and Blazer dunk totals increase.

Defensively he is all over the board. On one possession he will look like he has never played defense before and on the next he will force a turnover or a tough shot. He tends to prefer playing help-defense to matching up with his man.

He will also acquire more than his share of rebounds. He has the best offensive court awareness on the team outside of Roy. He teams marvelously well with Sergio Rodriguez and together they have the ability to turn the Blazers into a dynamic half-court team.

Offense: A-
Defense:B-
Overall:B

Jerryd Bayless
Bayless is another Rookie with high expectations. He is rumored to be a lock-down on-ball defender who can penetrate at will on offense.

That was summer league. The preseason has been a bit different. Hardly shy about taking his shot, he has not proven to be ready to take those shots. He has gotten into the lane with great frequency but he then tends to force up tough, contested shots instead of finding the open man. He has some potential to score and there will be nights where he is unstoppable. But there will also be nights that will have McMillan pulling his hair out.

His court vision is suspect and that will cost him a lot of minutes. If he does not find his rhythm, his shaky shot will cost him more.

Defensively, he is a good but not great on the ball defender. He tends to go for a first move too often and leaves himself vulnerable to quick guards with good ball-handling skills. He shows flashes of what he can do but is not the stopper Portland needs yet.

Offense:C
Defense:C
Overall:C

Sergio Rodriguez
Rodriguez needed to make a statement with Steve Blake out. Once the regular season starts, minutes when Steve Blake returns to the line-up he will be hard pressed to make a case for playing more. He has gotten an extended look in the preseason so it behooves him to make his case now.

Offensively he has improved a great deal. His shot looks better and he makes fewer flashy passes and more fundamental, effective passes. He still has the ability to penetrate, draw the defender and deliver to the open man.

He still turns the ball over way too often, however. Unless he finds a way to decrease his turnovers by half he will continue developing butt splinters from the pine time.

Defensively he is much improved, though still a below average defender. He allows his man too much freedom to move and does not do a good job of blocking off angles. He looks effective because he comes up with a decent number of steals but he can be the weak point in the Blazer defense.

Offense:B
Defense:C-
Overall:B-

Martell Webster, Channing Frye both get incompletes due to injury.

Overall, it is very exciting. The Blazers have shown their second and sometimes third units can hold their own against even the Jazz starting line-up for short stretches. The Blazers will win a lot of games via bench, a lot of games via defense, and a lot of games because their starters are so talented.

We saw improvement from most of the players and even some of the poor grades (See Oden, Greg) have more to do with potential than performance. Oden would be a major contributor with the game he showed but has the potential to be a game-breaker if he decides not to dunk everything but instead show some of the skill we know he has.

And when Webster and Frye come back, it only makes an already top shelf, versatile, deep roster even better. The more I see, the more I think this could be the year the Blazers go much deeper in the playoffs than a lot of people think they should. If Portland can get off to a good start in their first 6 games they might not be stopped. Conversely, if they start slow and are 4 or 5 games under .500 after 10 games, the hole might be too deep to get out of. I think the former result more likely.

Then again, in pre-season pretty much everybody looks good.

Will Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden live up to the hype? Blazers preseason analysis.

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 marked the NBA debut of 3 highly touted rookies for the Portland Trailblazers; Center Greg Oden, Guard Rudy Fernandez and guard Jerry Bayless. Though they have been practicing for a couple of weeks and last Friday performed in a scrimmage at the Blazer Fan Fest, this would be their first appearance against a rival NBA team.

The game proved to be a laugher. It did not look like it in the first half. Sacramento led by 10 after the first quarter and at the half it was just a 3 point game. The third quarter was the game, however. Last season Portland struggled with the 3rd quarter all season, often turning large leads into small deficits and small deficits into insurmountable mountains. On this night it would be the opposite. 

Led by Jerryd Bayless they cranked up the defense and destroyed the Kings 32-13. To be fair, the Kings were without Brad Miller and Kevin Martin, so if anything it is a tribute to them they stayed with Portland for a half. Then again, this being preseason, how serious can you take results?

One thing we know is the dominant quarter the Blazers put on was something they were not capable of last year. It speaks volumes to how much they have improved that they now have that capability.

Preseason is mostly a time to settle on rotations, try out some new combinations of players, Coach McMillan did that. In the first half he started Sergio Rodriguez and Martell Webster. In the second half he started Jerryd Bayless and Travis Outlaw instead. Was it a fluke the Blazers went on a huge tear? That is a question that still needs to be resolved.

Also to be resolved is whether Greg Oden will be able to rein in his impatience. After sitting out his rookie year he was anxious to show the fans something. Unfortunately, this resulted in him pressing. Early on he tried to bull over everyone and throw down a dunk. Mikki Moore was having none of that and Oden got off to a slow start. Once he had gotten one dunk down, however, he was off to the races.  He shot 5 for 8, showed good court vision when he was doubled, and late in the game he had a spectacular block that brought the Rose Garden to its feet.

He also showed how he can help Portland. He will be a dominant force on the boards once he gets acclimated to the NBA. When the Blazers missed he showed a knack for finding the ball and throwing it down with wild abandon that had the Kings interior players running for cover.

It was great to watch Oden. He improved over the course of the game. Early on it was obvious he was pressing. As a result he stifled the offense. On defense he was so intent on sending back shots that he repeatedly was out of position and the Kings were able to exploit him for easy opportunities. By his last stint on the court he was taking his time on offense, making the correct defensive reads, and showing everyone what he could do. For a first effort it was perhaps a C+. We saw flashes of what he could do but it took him a while to get going.

Bayless meanwhile was an offensive no-show. His vaunted penetration skills seldom showed up, he was not looking for his shot, and he was willing to take a relatively passive role in the offense. Defensively, however, he was every bit the pit bull Blazer brass has advertised. His on-the-ball defense was a key in triggering the Blazers' third quarter run. Bayless will get a B for his effort. When his offense was not there or needed he did not force it. He found his role, fulfilled it, and controlled the game defensively.

Perhaps the biggest cheer of the night was reserved for Spanish sensation Rudy Fernandez. And it was deserved. His stat line was rather modest. He shot just 3 for 6 for 6 points, 1 rebound, and 5 assists. That line is deceptive. His 3 misses were him bombing away from 3-point land after the game was decided and had turned into a bit of a rat-ball festival. They were also about the only unspectacular things he did all night.

He introduced himself in the second quarter. Breaking down his defender, he arched a left handed finger roll over another onrushing defender to score his first points as a Blazer. It was spectacular. He was just getting started, however. Midway through the third quarter Sergio Rodriguez made a no-look pass to Fernandez for a spectacular all-oop dunk that had the Rose Garden rocking as it has not been for quite some time. Later, after showing off his passing skills, he took another Rodriguez alley-oop attempt. This pass was behind him so he caught it, flew to the reverse side of the basket and somehow dropped it in for the score.

Not content with showing his flair for the spectacular in scoring the ball, Fernandez then went to work on his assist total. First he made a spectacular, highlight reel between the legs pass to LaMarcus Aldridge for a dunk. Oh, not his own legs. The DEFENDER'S legs. 

Shortly thereafter he found Aldridge again with a stunning wrap-around pass. Still later he had a high post pass where he found Martell Webster cutting baseline. With his back to the cutter and without turning his head he placed a pinpoint pass in Webster's hands for the dunk. Webster had 2 crowd-pleasing dunks off Fernandez .

It was a phenomenal show by Fernandez. If he does these things with any consistency he will be the odds on favorite for Rookie of the Year. He makes the players around him better and electrifies the crowd. No doubt about it, the Rudy show drew an A+. 

Overall the Blazers showed tremendous improvement. Martell Webster and Travis Outlaw will battle it out for the starting role. Both of them helped their cause tremendously with their showings.

Webster is moving better without the ball, is much more aware on defense, did a tremendous job of helping on the boards, and showed flashes of being a lock-down wing defender.

Outlaw was a bit weaker defensively but showed improved versatility with his step-back jumper, the ability to make spectacular defensive plays, and was a player on the boards. McMillan has two excellent choices. It may come down to who works better with Fernandez on the second unit.

Aldridge showed great maturity. His first half was a complete stinker. He waited, let the game come to him, and ended up having a nice second half. He did not get down on himself and stayed in the game.

Overall it was an exciting showing. The Blazer "veterans" such as Webster, Outlaw, and Sergio Rodriguez showed great improvement. Newcomer Ike Diogu showed a toughness the Blazers were lacking last year. 

Tomorrow night against the Warriors, there are rumors that Oden and Brandon Roy will not be playing. Last year that sort of news would mean a loss was expected. This year, it will still be an upset, even in preseason, should the Blazers somehow lose this game. And that is pretty exciting.

110-81 may have been the final score, but the final result was probably the amplification of expectations for Blazer fans.

Coach McMillan, Brandon Roy and the Blazers:The Time is Now

Tuesday night will be the first time Greg Oden, Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez show up in Blazer uniforms in an NBA setting. Sure, it is "just preseason" and preseason games have as much meaning as the midnight promise in a bar to respect her in the morning, but there is still a thrill and excitement there.

Fans for every team experience it. Maybe this is the year Sebastian Telfair learns to shoot (but it won't be), maybe the addition of Elton Brand will mean playoff success (probably), maybe the renewed health of Dwayne Wade combined with a full season of the Matrix and arrival of Beasley will mean a return to glory (don't be surprised) and there is even someone, somewhere, thinking the arrival of Baron Davis will mean a deep playoff run for the Clippers (insert explosive laughter here...face it, they are the Clippers, after all*).

Blazer fans are no different. We have heard repeatedly this is the most talented Blazer team ever. That covers a lot of ground when you remember the Bill Walton/Maurice Lucas front line with Johnny Dawkins bringing the ball in to them, when you remember the fearsome Clyde Drexle/Terry Porter/Jerome Kersey/Buck Williams/Kevin Duckworth line-up where Uncle Cliffy aka Cliff Robinson was the 6th man, and so forth.

There have been numerous predictions of great success in the near future. Yet over and over, one theme keeps coming back. "They are among the most talented teams in the league, but they won't be any better than an 8th seed this year because they are young."

Some people aren't buying it. Coach Nate McMillan, for example. "I know we're young, but we're past that. That stuff was one or two years ago." In other words, he wants to instill a winning attitude and not use age as an excuse. He is saying the Blazers have the talent to win and win now.


If they are in truth as talented on the court as they are on paper then he is exactly right to say that. When you look at the Blazer roster, one thing jumps out. Almost every night they will be facing teams with arguably less talent on the floor and seldom indeed will they see another roster that can match up to them top to bottom.

There are really only two reasons for them to not blow past the 50 win mark, gain a decent seed, and do some damage in the playoffs: first, their reliance on 3 rookies and natural progression for a couple other young players. Second, the low expectations people have for them. That includes the expectation of them starting off at or below .500.

Much has been made of their tough early season schedule, and that is a fair concern. They are playing some of the top teams in the League. However, when you look at the rosters from top to bottom it quickly becomes apparent they should still win a good percentage of those games.

The Lakers ended up with home court advantage last season for a reason. With Kobe Bryant they have one of the top 2 players in the game today. Behind him they have All-Stars or at least All-Star caliber in the persons of Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and barring further injury, Andrew Bynum. They also have some talented role players who can change the game in Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, and so forth. Overall they have a scary good roster with one of the greatest coaches of all time.

And yet, from a talent standpoint, the Blazers match up very well. Steve Blake and Fisher are near clones of each other, the front line of Gasol and Bynum will face the duo of LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden, the talented Odom will face the equally talented Travis Outlaw off the bench (if that is how Jackson chooses to use him) and that leaves out the expected bench contributions of Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez. In other words, on the nights where Brandon Roy is within shouting distance of the numbers put up by Bryant, the Blazers should have a better than average shot at winning the game. Of course, that also highlights one of the differences.

The Blazers do not at this point have anyone who does for them what Bryant does for the Lakers, what Paul Pierce does for the Celtics, what LeBron James does for the Cavaliers, and so forth. Whereas Roy is unarguably a stud and effective, he does not own the game the way those players do.

Once before Portland had a highly talented team. Twice in three years they went to the Finals. They could score inside or out, they could rebound and play defense and on any given night you might see Porter, Kersey, Robinson, or Drexler go for 30 or more points. But at the end of close games they had too many guys who COULD take the shot to actually have THE GUY, the one who took the shot.

Both The Long Hot Winter by Coach Adelman and Against the World by Dwight Jaynes and Kerry Eggers detailed how that flaw derailed the 1992-93 season and was the difference between losing the Finals in 6 games and winning. The Bulls had some guy named Jordan and the Blazers didn't. They need to develop him, and the most likely candidate is indeed named Roy.

But it is not just the Lakers. Their second game will be against perennial Title contenders San Antonio. The Spurs indisputably have better players at point guard and power forward than Portland. Tim Duncan is always an MVP candidate and Tony Parker is one of the most dangerous point guards in the League. Additionally, when he gets healthy Manu Ginobli is an above average 2 way player who can cause conniptions.

Yet Aldridge matches up fairly well with Duncan. The Blazers will have distinct advantages at center and shooting guard with the small forward position being a wash. Coming off the bench with the firepower of Fernandez and Outlaw should give Portland a nice edge that the Spurs will need all of their vaunted team defense to neutralize. Of course, we all know they are well-coached and talented enough to do just that. Somehow, year after year the Spurs look up at other teams in terms of overall talent and yet end up in or near the Finals. That is no accident. They play together, they play their system, and the sum is greater than the parts.

When you break it down team by team it is quickly apparent the players who will play significant minutes for the Blazers look to be as good as or better than the players who will play significant minutes for even the best teams in the League.

So if they are that talented, have the excellent team chemistry that is being so highly touted, and have the desire to win, why argue they will fall short 33+ times this year?

After the initial burst of enthusiasm there has been a rash of Blazer fans talking about "reining in our expectations", about "being happy with 45 wins and maybe an 8 seed", about finishing third in the division behind Utah and Denver, about gaining experience in the playoffs this year and maybe making a run at the title in three or four years.

Let me be among the first to say bollocks. Forget the young label. Forget the injury prone label. Let's show some confidence. Let's pull together behind this team, go out there every night expecting to win the home games and to have a chance to win almost every night on the road. Let's say yes, we do expect to show another huge gain, to win well over 50 games, and to do some damage in the playoffs.

We have the talent, we have the opportunity, all we need is the confidence. And that goes for the fans as well as the players. Show the team you believe they are as good as we say they are.

Is it a tough task to run down L.A., San Antonio, Utah, Houston, Phoenix, Dallas, Charlotte and Denver? Absolutely. There is some phenomenal talent in the NBA right now. But is that task more likely to happen if we say "We aren't there yet" or if we say, "Yeah, we are that good." Show some swagger, Blazer fan, and enjoy the journey, and go Neon Deion on some people.

Several years ago, Deion Sanders left a Super Bowl winning 49ers team for the Dallas Cowboys. In his press conference he said, "I foresee a lot of winning in Dallas." Considering their talent laden line-up with Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin, Jay Novacek, Troy Aikman, and a defense that made their offense look average, that was hardly going out on a limb. When he got there, he did not wait, he did not put off his expectations for playoff success. And he went out and delivered.

I foresee a lot of winning in Portland. I don't foresee it starting in 2010. I see it starting this year. A mere 50 wins and 7th or 8th seed with this roster, even in light of the teams they have to run down, would be a huge disappointment. The time for leaning on their youth is gone and the time to win is now.

Except the preseason, of course. That is just the time for making fun if somewhat questionable predictions and claims :-)

* I sincerely hope I am wrong. Clipper fans are among the most loyal, long-suffering fans in all of sports and deserve a winner. They got close a couple years ago before regressing. I would be ecstatic if Boom Dizzle and Marcus Camby proved to be the catalysts that turned the Clippers from second division D-League team into NBA Finals contenders. But I ain't holding my breath...

Is Steve Blake better suited to start for the Blazers than Jerryd Bayless?

It has become an article of faith among many Blazer fans that Jerryd Bayless will unseat the much-maligned Steve Blake from the starting point Guard position. The sterling play, dazzling moves, and potent scoring ability of Bayless will turn the starting 5 into an unstoppable machine that will blow opponents out of game after game as the Blazers steamroll their way through the League. There are several problems with this scenario.

First off, regardless of how much talent he may have, it should be remembered that Bayless is a Rookie. The transition from Pac-10 college ball to the pro level includes a steep learning curve. To be sure there are occasionally players who step in and make huge impacts but for the most part, teams that start Rookies at key positions such as Point Guard do not fare well.

This is not a knock on Bayless. I was pretty excited when General Manager Kevin Pritchard Pritch-slapped the Pacers* and acquired him as I was more excited about him than the undersized alternatives available at the Point coming out in the draft.

My excitement has not abated after seeing him dominate the summer league. Reports coming out of Blazers propaganda central have touted his speed, aggressiveness, defense, and will to win. He sounds like the complete package.

Bayless will bring an ability to slash, to score, and provide tenacious defense. He sounds like an exciting player with few weaknesses. There are really only two things keeping him from being the starter.

First, as a rookie it will take him some time to adjust to the League and team. LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Brandon Roy and Steve Blake all have experience playing together. They are already going to be adjusting to replacing the defensive stalwart but offensive liability of Joel Przybilla with the more mobile, more athletic Greg Oden who will demand touches down on the block. Changing point guards at the same time would mean 40% of their starters were changed and, if Travis Outlaw supplants Webster in the starting line-up the changeover would be 60%. That is far too much change for a team that perhaps overachieved a bit last season.

Second, and more importantly, Blake is a better fit in the starting line-up. Blake is not as flashy as Bayless, can't penetrate nearly as well, and is not the defensive force that Bayless provides. However, his skill set is a better fit with the other starters.

Blake is very good at distributing the ball and setting up the offense. He also provides a zone-busting, court-stretching outside presence. His 3 point shot is consistent and deadly meaning teams cannot collapse off him on the Blazer's interior forces of Aldridge and Oden. With Webster and Blake providing the deep threat and Aldridge and Oden standing by to take passes, the slashing game of Roy is taken to yet another level. It is a line-up that integrates very well.

Bayless is better at driving than being the downtown threat. In the starting unit he would not provide as much of an outside threat as Blake and would largely duplicate the role Roy already capably handles.

Meanwhile, the second unit needs a player like Bayless. Przybilla does a good job of controlling the boards and providing a defensive presence on the interior. Bayless will join Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw in providing scoring punch off the bench. When he comes back from knee injury, Channing Frye will add power to the front court and make the Blazers 10 deep. He will provide them with a bit of a post-up game and the ability to pop out for 15 foot jumpers off of the drives of Fernandez and Bayless.

While Outlaw will occasionally drive, by his own admission he has fallen in love with his jump shot. Fernandez has the ability to get to the rim but will not dominate the ball the way Roy will. Thus Bayless provides a key role on the second unit that helps turn them into a potentially explosive unit that has the flexibility to score inside or outside.

Thus Blake, while potentially not being as physically talented as Bayless still provides what the starting line-up needs and would be unable to be as effective with the second unit and Bayless gets the opportunity he needs to produce with the second line-up that he would not get in the starting line-up.

I will be the first to admit I have not been a big Steve Blake fan over the years. I wanted Jarrett Jack to start ahead of him. I wanted to see Sergio Rodriguez get more minutes at his expense. But the plain truth is, Blake provides what this starting unit needs and, while his numbers will never blow anyone away, taking him out of the line-up does not improve the team.

In another year or 2, assuming Bayless is the real deal and develops as expected, he will indeed take away Blake's job. But for this season expect to see Blake penciled into the starting line-up pretty close to 82 times.






Note: Despite the rise of the term "Pritch-slapped", I actually think the Pacers did rather well for themselves in this deal. At the cost of relatively unused Ike Diogu and a draft pick they acquired a proven solid backup point guard in Jarrett Jack, a promising Rookie, and throw in Josh McRoberts. They got what they needed and so did Portland which seems like a pretty good trade all around from where I sit. That has been the secret to Pritchard's success. The deals he offers make sense for his trading partners. They only end up looking so good because they always result in fitting Portland's master plan.

Will anticipations of Blazer Championships deprive their fans of enjoying the journey?

"Better than the deed, better than the memory is the moment of anticipation."
Jaques the Bowler (Albert Brooks) while preparing for a date with Marge Simpson.


I am obviously highly interested in the results of the upcoming Blazer season in particular and more generally in the results of their next few years. As with most Blazer fans, I expect improvements this year and hope for a Championship or 3 in the next 6 - 8 years.

I will also admit to being perhaps a bit more optimistic than many Blazer fans but more realistic than another group. I believe a win total north of 50 and perhaps even winning a playoff series are not unrealistic goals even within the Western Conference, though winning it all this year seems a pretty sizable stretch.

But what if it doesn't happen, not just this year but ever? Perhaps Brandon Roy's heel issues limit his effectiveness, shorten his career and remove one of the bright stars from the Rose Garden. Or maybe Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and Jerryd Bayless fail to live up to expectations. Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster stop improving. An ill-advised trade moves LaMarcus Aldridge and disrupts the team chemistry.

Or maybe they just keep running into great teams. Last season's Celtics were assembled essentially instantaneously and have a few years left. The Jazz have assembled a talented, versatile roster. Kobe Bryant has been given a lot of help and is still a talent capable of winning entire series almost single-handed. See also James, LeBron. That is without even mentioning to this point the Spurs, Suns, Hornets, Magic, or....well, you see the point.

In short, there are a lot of ways the Blazers franchise total of NBA Championships won could remain at 1 even when the current crop of studs is retired, traded, departed as free agents or however this core group is dismantled .

But it shouldn't matter because between now and then they should create a number of great memories. Those should be reason enough to watch. And they are created game in and game out.

For example, last season there was a game where the Blazers were struggling, on the verge of being blown out in the first half. The opponents, I believe it was the Hawks, had the ball with mere moments remaining in the first half. They had a lay-up to push the lead even further out when Travis Outlaw came out of nowhere to make a spectacular block.

With the crowd on their feet still yelling, the Hawks (?) inbounded it for a dunk attempt which Outlaw launched right back into the seats.

Regardless of whether Portland won or lost that night, those moments stick out in my mind. And there were many more equally exciting plays. I can replay in my mind the Roy hand-switching lay-up reminiscent of Jordan versus the Lakers, any of dozens of Joel Przybilla blocks including several on dunk attempts, sky walking Outlaw dunks, Webster treys, Sergio Rodriguez passes, and more.

Too often sports fans get distracted by the goal of "winning it all" and forget to enjoy the journey. That can sap out a great deal of the fun of spectator sports. Take a team like the Oklahoma (Tropic) Thunder. They will be statistically be eliminated from playoff contention by approximately the third game of the season but their realistic playoff hopes will die a few games prior to that, maybe about the time they open training camp.

Yet with that said, failing to attend the games would rob Thunder fans of memories about some pretty spectacular games. With Kevin Durant aboard and cranking up shots basically any time he feels like it, they are likely to see a couple of 40+ point explosions. He is a freakish talent who should provide some spectacular entertainment even in losing causes.

At the other end of the spectrum would be teams like the Spurs who, if everything breaks right, could sneak back into the Finals and win another Ring. Whether they do or not, it is another year to watch the magnificence of Tim Duncan with his great footwork, court vision, and passing ability. It is another chance to see Tony Parker expand his game and make some great cuts into the lane.

You can find reasons to watch virtually every team in the League from game to game. They all provide entertainment as long as you recognize the journey is in many ways worth more than obtaining the goal.

Sure, I remember the excitement of Blazermania when the Big Redhead lifted the trophy over his head...31 years ago. But I also remember watching Billy Ray do his "Rock the Cradle" dunks for some pretty average Blazer teams as well, enjoyed the return of Maurice Lucas, saw Arvydas Sabonis, and so forth.

There was that fantastic triple overtime game with the Suns where Sabonis, Tom Chambers, and Rex Chapman hit unbelievable off-balance, heavily guarded threes to extend the game 5 more minutes. I remember that just as fondly as the Championship. Or the time Larry Legend and the Celtics came to Portland for his last game here and he ripped us for I think it was 51 points. The memories are great.

But so is the anticipation. This year I expect to see some incredible moves from the talented Blazer roster, to see some high-scoring explosions and great defensive plays, to see the team develop, win a lot of games, and perhaps even win a playoff series.

I like to think, however, that even if they just tread water at 41-41 I will still come away happy with having watched some fun basketball. If I leave with a smile on my face then they will have done their job.

Ultimately, maybe Jacques had it right. The promise of the next few seasons is so great that it seems impossible for any results to match them. Maybe if the Blazers exceed all (realistic) expectations, rip off 10 consecutive 60 win seasons and win5 championships in that time the memories and deeds will be better, but for now, as Blazer fans, lets just enjoy the anticipation.

R.I.P. Kevin Duckworth

Billy got us tickets to the Blazer game some how, some way, I still to this day cannot figure out how. We both grew up in homes where getting a quarter to buy a pack of baseball cards was a huge expenditure so tickets were never part of the equation. We exclusively saw the Blazers a few times a year when they were on free television. But for this game we had tickets.

So we climbed to the top of the old Memorial Coliseum. We sat right in front of the Organ player. We didn't care...we were in the building! And we got to see our favorite players. For me it was the hard-charging semi-manias Jerome Kersey. For Billy, and for thousands of other fans, it was Kevin "Duck" Duckworth.

Every time Duck touched the ball the place went nuts with Duck chants and Duck calls...calls using the whistles Duck hunters use to sound like a "real" duck with ruptured lungs. When he shot that one-handed mid-range jumper we knew it was going in. Sure, Duck had no inside game to speak of. He was a little bit slow-footed, not particularly tough inside, not a great rebounder, and not even particularly strong at interior defense. But we loved him and he worked for the Blazers.

His ability to hit that mid-range jumper would pull the shot-blocking monsters like Mark Eaton, Akeem Olajuwon, and David Robinson away from the basket which allowed the slashers like Clyde Drexler and Kersey to penetrate the lane for easy baskets. He fit the team perfectly.

Unfortunately, in 1989 he ran into someone who performed the same role but did it better. In the NBA Finals Duck was endlessly frustrated by Detroit Bad Boy Bill Laimbeer. To this day most Blazer fans blame the Blazer loss in those Finals on Duck which was unfair.

To be sure, Laimbeer did badly outplay him and not only neutralized Duck but dominated the center play. It was a turning point in Duckworth's career and he was never quite the same after that. He was a very sensitive man who took the sometimes harsh criticisms very much to heart.

Looking back it is clear Duck was the right player at the right time. A 2-time All-Star, without Duck the Blazers would probably not have made the finals against either the Pistons or the Bulls. Regardless of those, they would not have been the same team.

It was the engaging personality of Duckworth that made so many of us into fans. We loved the big man's smile and the way he played the game. His popularity rebounded and after his playing career ended he returned to do community relations work for the Blazers. It was a good choice as we still love him.

Unfortunately he passed away at just 44 years of age. Too young. He will be missed as a community relations guy but most of all, he will be missed as a direct link to the previous run the Blazers had when they were winning games with quality guys involved in the community like Buck Williams, Terry Porter, and yes...the man himself, Kevin Duckworth.

Rest in peace, big man. Thanks for all the memories. We love you.