Introducing a new performance metric; the Rudy

During the 4th quarter of the Blazers victory over the Toronto Raptors there was a moment that drove Blazers broadcaster Mike Barrett absolutely crazy. Ex-Trailblazer Jerryd Bayless drained consecutive threes and hit four of them in about a four minute stretch of game time.

After the second one Barrett had his patented disgusted tone of voice as he said something along the lines of, "A 29% three-point shooter and he hits another one."

Improbably, after hitting two more without a miss, Bayless would have been surprised to hear Barrett lament, "A 28% shooter and he cannot miss." It is not often someone makes four consecutive shots and has their percentage decline.

Naturally, it had not. The issue was a player having a short stretch of game that reflected a statistical outlier. As a general rule if Bayless attempts three 3-pointers he will miss two of them. However, that is an average, not an ironclad statistical truth.

Bayless was illustrating a basic truth about basketball players. Averages reflect their results over time, not in any particular stretch. Who can forget Ray Allen hitting eight triples in Game 2 of the Finals last year? Or going oh for eight on the same shot the next night?

Neither result was truly representative of what could be expected but neither was either outside the realm of believability. Players like Allen, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Durant, and so forth are stars because performances of high scoring outputs, usually on a relatively low volume of shots, are expected and taken as a matter of course.

When Carmelo Anthony scored 50 a few nights ago it was notable but not outside the realm of what we might expect from him. Anthony is a very capable scorer who puts up a large volume of shots. Scoring totals in the high 20s, 30s, 40s or even 50s are not infrequent. A night when the ball bounces just right a couple of times turns those high 20 point night into a high 30 point night, and if he averages out a night where he missed more shots than expected with a night he gets to the foul line and makes more shots than expected we see one of those magical nights where one player puts on a transcendent performance.

Blazer fans surely have been enjoying this with LaMarcus "LaMarvelous" Aldridge as he has recently exploded for a pair of 40 point games sandwiched around games tipping into the mid thirties.

It is becoming regular enough that as one individual recently noted, his career high 42 was "just" a "quiet 30 point night" until the last four minutes of the game.

I would not go so far as to say we expect big scoring outputs but I would say we are not surprised when superior offensive players put up big numbers.

What surprises us is when lesser players have those same explosions. For example, when Bayless, carrying a robust 9.5 points per game average, entered the fourth quarter with no points the other night, who expected he would finish the night with 18? It was a huge quarter.

Of course, any Raptor fan who watched the game might easily be justified in pointing to Rudy Fernandez and saying, "What about him?"

Fernandez had a tremendous first half Friday. He was everywhere. Tipping passes. Jumping into the lane to redirect drivers. Flying out to the perimeter to contest formerly open shots.

Knowledgeable Blazer fans are nodding their heads. We have seen those nights when Fernandez controls a game in every area except scoring. Recently, however, he has been scoring very well.

This is a refreshing change, as he was expected to contribute more than nine points a game. He has been in essentially a season-long slump interrupted by occasional brilliant outbursts.

Friday was such an outburst. In the first half he absolutely erupted, burying all eight shots he attempted en route to 23 first half points.

Raptor fans who are only casually aware of his playing style were probably shocked and devastated, expecting more of the same in the second half.

Unfortunately for Blazer fans, that is the difference between players such as Rudy and someone along the lines of a healthy Brandon Roy.

It is unreasonable and unlikely to see this sort of production continue over the course of a full game. Indeed, after taking and making eight shots in the first half (including six threes) he attempted but three shots in the second half and made none. His total at the end of the game matched his total at the end of the first half.

Now, on the one hand, his play in the first half was everything and more a Blazer fan could ever want. He was active, effective, and deadly. He more or less carried a Blazer team so lethargic they managed 3 turnovers in their first three possessions to a half-time lead.

He was so effective his contributions made up for Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Andre Miller combining for more turnovers than points in the first half. He was so effective a Raptor fan could be excused for assuming the game was over at the half time.

His second half was, from a scoring standpoint, so ineffective it is nigh on unbelievable the Blazers found a way to win.

But that is just the point. Good teams often have players like Fernandez. They plod along game after game providing their comfortable single digit points, a couple rebounds, maybe throw in an assist here and there.

Then there comes a game where they have one of those outliers, statistically speaking, where they score a weeks worth of points in a quarter, game, or half.

I am reminded of the night Martell Webster scored 26 points against the Jazz. Of those 26, 24 came in the third quarter. This was in a year in which he averaged 10.7 points per game. The Jazz never saw it coming and unexpectedly lost a game when a role player had a star-level night.

Most often when players like Fernandez, Webster, and players of their ilk have big nights, they come over the course of a single quarter or half.

A case in point would be the night DeJuan Blair of the Spurs had last Tuesday. He was absolutely dominant in the first half, leading the Spurs to a five point half time advantage with 14 points and eleven rebounds.

The rebounds were not unexpected. It is a pace any NBA fan might expect him to continue. He is a smart player who uses his knowledge and timing to grab large numbers of rebounds. The points were a bit unexpected, however, and it was reasonable to assume he would end the game with maybe 15 - 16 points.

As is so often the case with role players who have star quarters or halves, however, he was even less effective in the second half, dialing up a whopping zero points and collecting just one rebound.

Therein lies the problem, if there is one, with second line players taking on major and unexpected scoring loads in the first half.

If the stars are having an off night, how they respond to the outburst often determines the outcome of the game.

Talented, winning teams like the Spurs accept it for what it was...an unexpected and much appreciated bonus...and continue to run their offense to get their best players more attempts.

Teams with less stellar records seem to be more prone to trying to replicate the first half success in the second half, only to find that guy who typically scores ten a game is not going to have the same second half success as he did in the first half.

Unexpected success is difficult to maintain. But it sure is fun while it lasts.

There are some players who seem to specialize in it. Rudy Fernandez might be the king of impressive explosions followed by extreme disappearances. He seems to regularly have a double digit scoring quarter only to not score again for a game and a half.

So in honor of Rudy and with a nod of the head to the home of such great basketball terms as "The Voskuhl", "the Mario", etc., I propose we begin using the term, "a Rudy" to describe an outburst wherein a player scores double their average or more in a half, but is non-existent statistically speaking for the other portion of the game.

As a Blazer fan, let me say I hope to see many more Rudys from Rudy and his running buddy Patty Mills this year. They sure are fun to watch.

Apathetic Blazermania

As the various packets that come with being a season ticket holder arrive in staggered increments, there has been a very confusing emotion attached.

Apathy.

This is rather stunning. Usually I am quite juiced about the forthcoming season. I am chatting about prospects, arguing over how many wins, win margin, which players will improve, and reliving past glory moments.

This year...instead I am wondering if I should sell a quarter season, a half season, or the entire package. Not only am I counting down the days until the first pre-season game, I am actually wondering if I want to go to any games.

With a curious reaction like that, I sat down to work through what the problem is.

I still love basketball. I like to play it, watch it, discuss it, think about it, read about it. I spend time at many of the hot-spots...True Hoop, Basketbawful, Bleacher Report, Blazers Edge, Hoop World, and numerous others I could list.

But I do not currently love BLAZER basketball.

It is singularly odd because they are arguably the best team they have been since the late 80s/early 90s glory days of Clyde the Glide Dexler, Terry Porter, Jerome Kersey, Kevin Duckworth, and Buck Williams.

The optimist in Blazer fan believes Greg Oden will stay healthy, LaMarcus Aldridge will take a step forward, Brandon Roy will be Brandon smurfing Roy, and the wins will pile up in rapid fashion.

I believe anything short of 56 wins or more, a Division Title, and a trip to a minimum of the conference series would be disappointing considering the talent level.

The problem is...I just do not care.

The team I had grown to love has been dismantled slowly but surely.

The first to go was Travis Outlaw. That one hurt.

Yes, I am well aware of the flaws Blazer fans over-emphasize.

I am also aware that he was drafted by Portland, we watched him develop, and he hit arguably the most important shot of the last three years when his buzzer beater against Memphis helped the young team realize they could overcome adversity.

While Steve Blake was not drafted by Portland, he fit the team and culture well and was instrumental to the turnaround. He also took less money to come to Portland because he liked the team.

Bringing in guys like Marcus Camby and Wesley Matthews unarguably make the team better and with Oden and Camby, fan favorite and long-time stalwart Joel Przybilla is admittedly dispensable from a basketball standpoint.

The problem is...the character of the team has changed.

Now, instead of being excited about Blazer draft-day acquisitions and treasured veterans who carried the team through their growing pains, we are looking at "import-heavy" teams.

It changes my interest level.

I am not a blind Blazer fan. The organization holds a certain portion of my loyalty, but so too do the players.

It does bother me how the Rudy Fernandez situation is playing out.

It bothers me that guys like Outlaw, Blake and Przybilla are not merely considered dispensable but are basically run out of town in the eyes of some Blazer fans.

It bothers me all the negativity thrown at LaMarcus Aldridge because he plays the new millennium style of game, with a great mid-range game and developing post game instead of being the new Karl Malone...a player, by the way, I always despised for his substitution of strength and charging without getting called for it in place of skill.

It bothers me that new General Manager Rich Cho is talking about another "major move" which presumably would mean Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless or some rumors even say Oden would depart in favor of another import.

Now, on the one hand, as a Blazer fan, I am happy about seeing the team improve.

On the other hand, they are no longer as compelling a story in my opinion.

Instead of watching a two to three year period of acquiring young, talented players with the expectation of watching them play together for a decade, now we have a mish-mash of some of those players, some guys brought in for just a year or two, and a lack of continuity.

The net result is the more they change the team...the less I like it.

And the end result is that as the season approaches, my customary excitement and thrill-expectation meters are completely gone, only to be replaced by one thing.

Apathy.

If I stay lazy and fail to list the tickets, I will probably go the games. I will almost assuredly even enjoy them.

But it will be the enjoyment of going to a movie that turns out to be a serviceable comedy rather than a memorable laugh-inducer, in box office terms.

That makes me sad.

It also makes me wonder...how can a team with rising expectations bring lowered anticipation?

Chris Bosh or LaMarcus Aldridge; Not who is better, but who really fits?

In response to a recent post explaining why I elected not to renew my season tickets largely due to the trade of Travis Outlaw, I was asked what I thought of the LaMarcus Aldridge for Chris Bosh trade rumors.

In some respects, it is an intriguing question and one that is difficult for me to be objective about. I freely admit to being a huge LaMarcus Aldridge mark. I am tired of the oft-cited and remarkably inept criticisms that Aldridge is "soft", that his post-up game is not good enough, that he relies too much on his jump shot, that his defense is inadequate and his rebounding borderline incompetent.

I also recognize the skill Bosh brings to the table. There is a lot to compare in their games.

Both players have silky smooth mid-range jumpers. Inside his range, I actually think Bosh is the superior shooter, though that is merely anecdotal evidence. Due to his playing in Toronto, I have only ever seen a handful of his games and as a result I must base most of my opinion on statistics, which often lie.

Based on statistics the team of Tom Chambers, Xavier McDaniel and Dale Ellis was awesome when in truth, they scored a lot but gave up a lot of points too. Their scoring numbers say nothing about their individual or team defense, their cohesiveness, or those little things teammates do to improve each other.

So I must base my analysis of Bosh on the games I have seen live in Portland for the most part.

Bosh is a genuine pleasure to watch in warm-ups. His jumper is silky smooth and sometimes you wonder if he will ever even hit the rim. Shot after shot brings that delicious snap of the net as the ball comes through on the precise trajectory to demonstrate the purity of a perfect shot.

Step-back, side-shuffle, face-up. Shot after shot after shot goes swish, swish, swish. His movement is crisp, his motions sure and effortless. He is a skilled player indeed, and this does not change when the game starts.

If a defender gives him the slightest space he rises up and two points go up on the board for the Raptors. Crowd him and he puts the ball on the floor and gets inside. I have rarely seen him do back to the basket post-up moves, but that does not say he is not a post player. I actually cannot honestly answer that question due to the paucity of coverage the Raptors get in Portland. I can say I have repeatedly seen him face up his man, get to the rim and finish strong.

On defense, Bosh appears to me to be better than average. He is strong enough to avoid getting run down, quick enough to help out when his guards get beat, and is an excellent rebounder. He has a very well-rounded game and would be an instant upgrade to almost any team that acquired him. You can count on two fingers the number of power forwards who are anywhere near his production and skill level.

Aldridge, meanwhile, has slightly better range than Bosh and, while not as high a percentage shooter, is still very good. He does have a post -game which is oft-maligned, and there is some merit to that. Of course, part of the problem with the criticism is it represents a poor analysis of Aldridge's game.

He is still developing his post play and, while it has shown vast improvement in the last couple of years, it is not yet the strength of his game. There are certain defenders against whom Aldridge simply has not yet been able to develop an effective move against. He recognizes this and, instead of continuing to put himself in a bad match-up, he drifts out to the perimeter where he has the advantage.

Not continuing to force up tough, contested shots in bad situations is an intelligent basketball play. Unfortunately, too many fans give the knee-jerk "Aldridge is soft" answer. I have a suggestion to those fans. Stick a sock in it and watch his game.

Aldridge plays down low against the big guys and, while his rebounding numbers are not huge, take a look at the timing and manner of them. Game after game I watch him come away with key rebounds whenre seven, eight, maybe nine guys are clustered inside the key trying to get the board and somehow Aldridge rips down what I like to call "man-boards".

He is not afraid to match up with players like Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and so forth night after night. He works hard, stays in the team concept, and does his job.

I genuinely believe part of the reason his rebound numbers are quote "low" is due to the guys next to him. Joel Przybilla, Greg Oden and Marcus Camby are all superior rebounders. An example would come from the Portland-Washington game of March 19th, 2010.

There were precisely 100 available non-free throw rebounds available. Camby came away with 19 of those, a staggering number that means nearly one of five times there was a ball caroming off the rim, Camby snagged it.

Assuming teams will garner approximately one half of the available rebounds and each player will contribute, that means the remaining nine players have roughly thirty rebounds to share among themselves. Guards are generally good for two to three apiece and the Blazers run four. Forwards should get roughly four to five apiece in the Portland system, and the Blazers essentially have three forwards other than Aldridge, so there are roughly forty-nine of the rebounds available accounted for. That is without Aldridge.

Naturally, part of the statistical analysis is average, and on any given night a guy who averages five boards might go without while a guy who averages two might get seven.

Aldridge checks in at a fairly steady seven to eight a night. He seldom has less, but often has more such as the dozen he tallied against the Wizards.

Even more notably, when the Blazers were starting Methuselah... err, Juwan Howard at center, or even rookie Jeff "Li'l Bit" Pendergraph, Aldridge was dialing up double digit boards seemingly every night.

His deflated rebound numbers are partially a product of the players he plays with is the short form of the statement I am making.

As Aldridge's biggest defender, I also think his defense is unfairly maligned. I am not nervous when he gets caught on the perimeter against smaller, quick players because he is quick enough, agile enough, and long enough to contest their shots. Of course, sometimes they score because that is what the Chris Pauls and Tony Parkers of the NBA world do...they score against bad defense, average defense, and good defense.

Aldridge is at his best coming off his man to contest a shot, but he is also a decent man to man defender. He is often accused of lacking intensity, and this is accurate. He also likes to slap at the ball low a bit much for my liking, but he also pokes away a lot of balls.

He is definitely not an All-NBA defender, but he is improving every year.

Off the court, there is little to complain about for either player. In many ways, Bosh has certain advantages in that regard. Chris Bosh has a great sense of humor, though it is flawed...he seems to find Will Ferrell funny despite stuff like Semi-Pro. 3

Bosh is also noted for his work in the community and has a lot going for him as a potential player.

Let me emphasize again that I am a huge Aldridge player and, since everyone else jumped on the Roy bandwagon, he is probably my absolute favorite player.

With that said, I believe Bosh is the superior overall player. Bosh is better defensively and offensively, he seems to get along with his teammates better than Aldridge, who is oft criticized by local media for being standoffish (which may have more to do with media perception than actual truth...I am not privy to the internal workings of the Blazers organization).

He very well could improve the Blazers to the point where a Championship goes from being a realistic but somewhat long shot possibility next season to a favorite if he were traded for some package such as Aldridge, Martell Webster, and whatever spare parts were needed to make the salaries match up.

Of course, there are several problems with the above scenario, and just to save the people who hate my article time, let me present a couple; Bosh may not want to leave Toronto, he may not want to come to Portland, the deal might not make sense from Torontos' standpoint as they may not feel the value in return is sufficient.

I, of course, feel Aldridge and Webster would be far too much to give up. And this has nothing to do with their respective ability.

I love Aldridge's game, I love that he has been a Bloazer since draft day, and I hope that he retires a Blazer. I do not want to see him in a Raptors uniform. In fact, you can replace the word "Raptors" with any team in the league not named "Blazers".

I hate any trade that sends Greg Oden, Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless, or Martell Webster away. Shrewd drafting has given the Blazers a roster that was "born" together, has grown up together, and it is time to watch them roll the League together.

I want to see the home-grown, home-developed players take their shot. Yes, I know about the problems...I know that Batum's development is limiting Webster's role. I know that Fernandez wants more playing time, a bigger role, and more money. I know the criticisms of Bayless as point guard and Oden as injury prone, of Roy as a weak defender and Aldridge as a soft player.

I also know that I love watching these guys play together, I love knowing they started their NBA PLAYING careers as Blazers and they are good enough to take a run at a couple of titles.

No, I am not a complete and total homer. I recognize how much acquiring Marcus Camby has improved the team this year, regardless of how much I hate the cost of losing another personal favorite, Travis Outlaw. I recognize that with all the injuries and the surprisingly poor play before the injuries started, Portland is not as good this season as the Cavaliers, Magic, Nuggets, Celtics, Lakers, and maybe even teams like the Suns, Hawks, Spurs, Jazz and maybe one or two others.

But they will be if and when they get healthy.

The fact that the Blazer teams of Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter, Kevin Duckworth and Jerome Kersey never won a title never made me love watching them any less. If Portland could have traded Kersey for Pippen in their primes and won multiple titles, I would have loved them less because Pippen would be an import.

Yes, I grew to love the game of Buck Williams, but he was never as cool to me as our home-grown guys.

Yes, I love watching Andre Miller play, and his expanding game...two dunks this season, which I believe is probably a career high, and possibly a career TOTAL, is entertaining. Watching Camby block shot after shot and pull down rebound after rebound is cool. But I still like watching "my" guys more.

And the same would hold true for an Aldridge-Bosh trade. On a basketball level, depending on who they gave up, I think it would be an improvement for Portland. But on a personal level, I hate it.

And that gets to the root of fandom. Am I a fan of the player or the franchise? The real answer is both. I admit I turned on Drexler a bit when he more or less quit on Portland when it became obvious their run at a title was over, only to rejuvenate his career in Houston. I did not want to see him win a title there.

Kersey in a Laker uniform is a crime against humanity I will never get free from. I was sad to see him in Warriors, Spur and Buck gear...but I might have shed a tear when he wore that hated uniform. Porter played with the Timberwolves, Heat and Spurs. that also makes me sad.

Not because I did not want Drexler, Porter, Kersey, Cliff Robinson and so forth to have long, meaningful careers or that I did not want the Blazers to move forward. It was more because my development as a basketball and sports fan coincided with the careers of the players.

One reason I do not particularly follow college basketball is because of the rampant player change. Great college players are typically there for one or two years, good ones for three, and pedestrian players for four. Yes, there are exceptions, but that is pretty common.

That means to follow college basketball and have any real in-depth knowledge of what is going on, I have to learn four, five, six new players and their styles every year.

By contrast, even before this season ends and off-season moves take place, I have a pretty good idea of how the Blazers will play. For that matter, I can tell you what the typical Spurs, Nugget, Clipper or Warrior game will look like next year.

I know their offensive concept and where players should be on any given play. I know who should get the most shots and where those shots should come from. Sure, there will be adjustments. Of Patty Mills, Dante Cunningham, Jeff Pendergraph, Marcus Camby, Martell Webster, Andre Miller, and Rudy Fernandez there are likely to be anywhere from three to six new names in those places.

But I also expect the opening night Blazer line-up, barring injury, to have Oden, Aldridge, Batum and Roy for sure (and most likely Miller, but who knows?). I expect Aldridge to be posted up on the first two to three possessions, with Oden getting a couple of those and Roy driving at some point in the first five minutes or else taking that gorgeous pull-up jumper foul-line extended.

I would hate to see that broken up too soon even for a player such as Bosh. That is personal preference...but it is a strong one.

Trip City: What is wrong with Brandon Roy and the Blazers?

Prior to the season there was a lot of optimism in Rip City. It made a lot of sense because the team was clearly much improved.

The most glaring problem spot, back-up point guard, had seen a major upgrade with near-All Star Andre Miller coming in at the addition-by-subtraction cost of the departure of Sergio Turnover machine Rodriguez.

The second most glaring problem was resolved by the return of Martell Webster. While Nicolas Batum is clearly the best Blazer defender, Webster presents them with an offensively dangerous option.

Furthermore, team strengths were also improving. Greg Oden looked to have regained his speed and agility and was looking so improved that a guy who should have gotten some consideration for team MVP last year, Joel Przybilla, became a reserve.

Yet 20 games into the season Portland has already lost four home games, including a blow-out loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, has trailed for 11 consecutive quarters, and worse yet, looks like they are a team that does not care. What happened?

In some ways, it is a team effort. The players who have improved this year from last can be limited to two; Greg Oden and Martell Webster.

Oden is doing more than asked; he controls the boards, blocks shots, stays within himself offensively and shoots at a high clip. He plays hard and has a huge impact at the defensive end of the floor.

Webster had a shaky start but has come on to look like the Blazers best player much of the time. He has taken on Batums' role as defensive stopper and does a creditable job. He is not a premiere defender yet, but there have been moments and stretches where he has been.

So if those two are improved, who has gotten worse?

Naturally, since credit starts at the top, so does blame. And Brandon Roy unfortunately deserves much of that blame.

Unlike past seasons where he has been an efficient scorer, this year his offense has been disruptive and low percentage.

Part of that is due to the officiating. My bias is obviously pro-Blazer, but I genuinely believe he is poorly officiated. It is very frustrating to see him drive the lane, be bounced off three defenders, and no call, only to see a Blazer pick up a hand-check foul on players like Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, or even Rudy Gay.

Roy should be going to the line over 10 times a game with the way he plays, but he is not officiated the same way other slashers are and regularly takes a great deal of contact without drawing the foul.

As a result, he becomes frustrated, knowing no foul will be called, and overcompensates with some wild drives that result in ugly shots and worse turnovers that lead to fast-breaks going the other way. This does not excuse his play, but certainly makes it understandable.

Nor is he playing well defensively. He gets torched repeatedly on the occasions he makes it down the floor at all.

But his disappearance pales in comparison to that of Steve Blake. Blake somehow forgot who he was. Gone is the steady point guard who hits the three and doesn't turn the ball over. In his place is a guy who makes unbelievably bad turnovers, makes them at the worst time possible, plays worse defense than Jeff Pendergraph is playing* to the point where I have labeled it Blake-fense.

Even my favorite player, LaMarcus Aldridge must share some of the blame. He has lost a lot of the aggression he showed in the past two seasons. He does not demand the ball on the block, does not dominate defensively the way he should, has looked lost and out of place all too often. He is far more talented than he has shown.

Przybilla has seemed disinterested, no longer the defensive force he used to be. He is not moving his feet, not blocking out, not blocking shots, and not bringing the attitude he used to.

Now, to be fair the Blazers miss Travis Outlaw a great deal, and more than many Blazer fans realized they would. His explosive scoring potential and game-changing athleticism, along with his clutch fourth quarter play show up again and again.

Yes, Portland lost two key rotation players in Outlaw and Batum. Yes, they have played a hectic schedule.

These are not valid excuses. They have also played a cupcake schedule and there are several inexcusable losses on it. If they want to be a playoff team, much less a contender, then they need to show the heart it takes to be one and win the games they should without making excuses.

For example, they choked away home games to the Nuggets and Hawks. They lost to a Warriors team playing seven guys. They lost at home to Memphis, giving up a 31-4 run on their home floor. They did not even try against the Heat.

The amazing thing in that game was that the Heat shot 53.3%. What is amazing about it is that the number was so low. All night every shot was wide open with no Blazer in the picture. Nor is that a one-game phenomenon.

The Blazers are out of sync right now. When there is a pick and roll, often the Blazers elect to defend neither player. Nor do they defend well one on one, and when the big men provide help defense, no Blazer provides rebounding coverage.

Defensively, they are discombobulated and lack any sense of cohesion. Offensively they are only marginally better.

Yet for all that, I think there is one more huge element that deserves some blame for the question, "What is wrong with the Blazers".

That is people like me. Fans. Fans who love this team. Fans with expectations for this team.

When the team was built around Zach Randolph, we expected to lose. We knew we would lose to the Clevelands of the League, struggle against the Utahs, and try to eke out wins against the weak sisters like the Warriors, Clippers, and other NBDL teams masquerading as NBA teams.

We knew who those teams were because we were one of them.

But we got spoiled. We got used to seeing Super-Trout (Travis Outlaw in super-stud mode) and B-roy dominate games, in seeing Portland win every possession, even if the other team scored, by putting out superior effort, functioning as a cohesive unit, and winning virtually every home game.

We got spoiled by watching Roy and Aldridge go from good draft day picks to cornerstones of the franchise. We got spoiled by a meteoric rise from irrelevance to 54 win team.

And we got used to it.

Instead of coming to the game planning to enjoy the action and have a win be icing on the cake, we now show up expecting a win and being upset if the Blazers struggle. Sure, not all of us do that, but we fans are a team just as the Blazers are and must all take responsibility for what we do.

That includes the poor taste in booing the home team in each of the last two home games. It includes the raucous booing whenever a Beaver or Duck shirt is shown.

Yeah, I know, Beaver fans hate the snobbish, arrogant Duck fans. And Duck fans hate their also-ran little cousins and make a point of booing loudly...and often.

So often they have made little kids cry when the kids were shown on the big screen wearing Beavers gear and been booed mercilessly. So obnoxiously the Duck fans drowned out the music because it was the OSU dance team on the floor, a favor the Beaver fans did not reciprocate when the Duck Dancers hit the floor.

The point is the fans are more frequently found silent or booing or complaining than cheering the team on, possibly because we became complacent before we won anything.

Now, it is much too early to panic. This is a very talented basketball team with a lot of good wins in front of it. Roy will get it figured out. Blake and Miller will get past their little unspoken feud. Aldridge will find his place on this team. And they will win plenty of games by the end of the year.

The question is whether Blazer fans will be patient while that happens.

So buck up Blazer fans. You are still winning at a .600 clip. You are still fine. The team will find itself. You just need to go back to being optimistic team supporters, stop ripping them at every opportunity, and enjoy the trip.

And yes, I realize the irony of saying that after writing this. But thanks for noticing.

* For those unaware of Pendergraph, he is currently on the Injured Reserve. Hopefully now that joke (?) makes sense

2-3? Reeling Blazer Fans wonder what happened

Going into the season, my hopes for this year's Blazer team were sky-high. Coming off a very fun 54-28 year, having upgraded the three weakest positions, and entering the fourth year for the heart and soul of the team to be together, I optimistically suggested 60+ wins, a Western Conference Finals or better appearance, and an opening month with a record as sparkling as 15-4.

Just a couple weeks later the team seems to be in disarray. They almost gave up a home game to the out-manned Rockets then did lose at home to not only the Nuggets but also to the Hawks.

This is not a shot at the Rockets, Nuggets, or Hawks. The Nuggets look to have a good shot at giving the Lakers a run for their money for best record in the conference based on their play without J.R. Smith. The Rockets have been playing unbelievably well. And the Hawks are one of my dark horse teams in the Eastern Conference with a roster somewhat similar to the Blazers.

But the plain and simple truth is I truly believed that this edition of the Blazers was set for a run vaguely reminiscent of the 77 Title team. They are not expected to contend by most experts but have the talent to play a superior brand of basketball.

The pre-season injury to Nicolas Batum was disappointing as the defense he provides the team is certainly an important element but hardly something the Blazers could not overcome. The return of Martell Webster would provide a major offensive upgrade at the price of a slight decline in defense.

Meanwhile, more minutes would open up for Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez.

Yet five games into the season, Portland has looked...well, let us not mince words. They have looked bad.

Playing competitively but losing home games is what teams with losing records do. The Blazers have done it twice.

The Nugget game in particular hurt because most Blazer fans expect the Blazers to battle the Nuggets for Northwest Division laurels. Losing a home game to your chief rival, particularly a home game you thought you should win, is just the sort of thing that comes back to haunt you late in the season.

So what exactly is happening here? Unfortunately, I have been out of town since the Nugget game, so primarily what I have has been anecdotal evidence. But those anecdotes have been telling.

Following the games on my mobile phone with the auto-refresh set for every 15 seconds has been brutal. The Blazers would close to within a bucket, it would refresh, they would be down six points. I would look at the last couple plays, and all too often, the plays were opponents dunking. And dunking again. Then, for something different, getting an offensive rebound and dunking.

Yet opponents are only shooting .429% against the Blazers. So for the game, their defense is adequate, it is only when the game matters that they go into matador mode and let the opponents have a layup drill.

Compounding the problem, the Blazers themselves are shooting a very mediocre .422%. They are winning the rebound and 3-point shooting percentage battles and losing the turnover game by just .6 turnovers per game.

Thus the statistical story tells us that seven hundredths of a percent in shooting is not going to kill Portland in the long run as better three point shooting and four extra rebounds should cover that in the long run.

What they really need to do is find the killer instinct to put teams away. Portland has been outscored 137-121 in the fourth quarter, more than offsetting their 112-103 third quarter advantage. They are losing the second half by over a point a game.

This is troubling since the Blazer bench is supposed to be a major strength. With guys like Andre Miller, Fernandez, and Outlaw the bench looked like a potent weapon capable of having three guys in double figures nearly every night.

Yet if the bench was producing, the starters and closers would not be so worn down that they give back huge leads. Based on minutes, they should not be worn down anyway as only Aldridge and Roy are playing over 30 minutes a game and Aldridge is only playing about 31 minutes a game.

Worse, the players are showing signs of pressure in close games. Against Denver the Blazers bricked five free throws that would have either tied the game or given Portland the lead in the closing minutes. It was a team effort with Roy, Aldridge, Miller, and Oden all contributing to the key misses.

The team has been searching for answers. The local Portland paper referenced a Roy interview where he discussed the malleability of the rotation which indicates a certain lack of cohesion. This would point to a strength actually being a problem.

Let me say in advance that I think Nate McMillan is an excellent coach and will get that problem sorted out. Yet I would be remiss in not saying that one thing the Blazers certainly need is for him to settle on roles for each player and more or less stick to them which will go a long way towards clearing up rotation questions.

In High Above Courtside: The Lost Memoirs of Johnny Most, the late Most was quite clear on what he believed caused the collapse of the Celtics in the late seventies. For Most, it was not lack of talent but rather too much talent where players refused to accept roles and the coach therefore lost control of the rotations. As players began struggling to find roles, Jo-Jo White lost the team, the record went south, he ended up fired and the players ended up in other uniforms.

That is a very real danger for this Blazer team. Just take a look at some of the potential conflicts:

Brandon Roy. He just signed a max deal and may feel pressure to prove his worth. Yet his style of play demands to dominate the ball, which is more difficult because;

Andre Miller. A near All-Star starter his whole career, a pace-pushing, penetrating point guard, he now has to interact with Roy, who is playing the role Miller is used to, in a slow-down offense that is at or near the bottom of the NBA in pace, all while backing up;

Steve Blake. An underrated distributor who never dazzles anybody with his numbers, but relies on hitting the open trey off penetration by players like Roy. His suspect defense, nick-named Blake-fense, and lack of ability to penetrate the lane causes problems for the Blazer big men.

Meanwhile, Rudy Fernandez wants to expand his game. He wants more minutes. He wants to dominate the ball a bit more. Unfortunately, he is backing up Roy, who leads the team at over 38 minutes per game. Furthermore, whether Fernandez is paired with Roy or Miller, that player is going to have the ball in their hands far more often than Fernandez.

Travis Outlaw wants to get paid. He wants to start. However, on this team, his game does not mesh well with the starters which means Portland needs him to come off the bench, play energetic defense, create his own shot, and be a dominating sixth man...a role Outlaw is adept at but rumored to resent. This is a contract year for Trout, and he wants to use it for that big-money deal. Can he get minutes?

LaMarcus Aldridge, like Roy, is coming off signing a huge deal that will keep him in Rip City for several years. He wants to show he is worth it. He is on record as wanting to be an All-Star. He is also on record as being confused about when to go down on the blocks and when to defer to Greg Oden. Thus he sometimes gets lost on offense and, instead of improving his numbers from last year, has seen his scoring dip noticeably while his fouls have increased.

Greg Oden, meanwhile, wants to start. He wants to erase the memories of an injury plagued college career, a missed rookie season, and a much-maligned actual rookie season. He wants to score. He wants to prove he is worthy of a number one pick. But he is at best a third option, and probably more like a fourth option among Blazer starters behind Roy, Aldridge, and Martell Webster. Being a fourth option does not jibe well with wanting to show he is a worthy number one.

Which brings us to Webster. He wants to show he is back and better than ever after missing all but six minutes of last season. Yet he alone has shown he is willing to do what it takes to make the team work. Start, come off the bench, concentrate on defense, shoot the three, drive to the rack...it can be argued he has been one of the most effective all-around players the Blazers have so far this season. Yet he knows that McMillan is on record as saying Batum will be the starter when he returns. How will that sit with Webster? He needs to show enough now to get minutes later.

Thus we clearly see it is possible the Blazers are playing with a bunch of personal agendas at the cost of team chemistry, cohesion and effectiveness.

It is still very early in the season. It is way to early to hit the panic button. This is a team capable of getting hot, going on a run akin to the Rocket 20+ win streak of a couple seasons ago, seizing the Northwest Division in a death grip and not letting go.

It is also a team capable of degenerating into a mix of players trying to get theirs, chasing personal agendas and regressing to a .500 team.

It is instructive to note where they sit right now. Tonight I was idly watching some Hornets-Mavericks action and every so often a score would catch my eye. The Celtics were losing to the Timberwolves by six late in the third or early in the fourth. The Lakers were losing to the Rockets by a few points.

I pretty much laughed when the commentators talked about the Celtics being in danger of losing their perfect record in the game, or about how the Rockets were handling the challenge. The thing about Championship contenders is you just have a feeling they will pull out those close games, particularly about inferior teams.

This again is no knock on either the Rockets or T-Wolves. The Rockets play as hard as any team in the league and Rick Adelmen should get Coach of the Year consideration if they continue to play this well. And the Wolves are building something promising.

But neither team should be confused with a Championship quality team, and any time the Celtics or Lakers lose to either of those teams, regardless of what floor it is played on, it is an upset.

THAT is the level the Blazers are aspiring to get to. As it stands now, they are definitely not there. In fact, they are so far from there, I am ready to contradict myself.

One of my brothers asked me if the Blazers were favored against the Nuggets prior to the Blazer home game last Tuesday. I said they were ALWAYS favored at home, regardless of the opponent, that they would lose a couple games over the course of the season, but any home game should favor the Blazers.

I take it back. As it sits, I think it would be a mild upset if they beat the Spurs tomorrow. Far from being the level they need to be, the Blazers have regressed that far, that fast.

Fortunately, one great thing about being a fan instead of a player or coach is that hope springs eternal. I can sit here and believe that Roy will say the right words, McMillan will find the right rotation, the players will find cohesion, and the early season struggles will end tomorrow as they take on the Spurs.

That is the best part about the NBA. Knowing what I know, I can still believe that.

Oh, and for the record...yeah, the Lakers and Celtics both won. Sometimes I hate it when I am right.

T is for title: The Blazers Season Pre-view

Last season, the Blazers tied with the Nuggets for the best record in the Northwest Division, 54-28. they then gave back all the hard work in the first game of the playoffs, getting rolled up at home by Utah. Once that game was over, they quickly showed they had what it took to win in the playoffs at home and competed in almost every road game, but never broke through and ended their season early and in disappointing fashion.

Yes, a team that most observers last pre-season thought were still a season away from playoff contention found disappointment in exiting in the first round.

They then went out and got significantly better in several ways.

First, they upgraded at their weakest position, point guard. Gone is inconsistent, disgruntled Sergio Rodriguez, replaced by the durable and skilled Andre Miller. Second, gone is erratic good guy Channing Frye and in his place is the steady Juwan Howard.

But it was not just free agents that changed the face of this team. Another year of experience has turned this team from young, hungry and talented into battle-tested, hungry and talented. Aside from that, they are essentially getting two guys back from injury.

The first is Martell Webster. He is an under rated defender and lights out shooter. He could have provided the offensive spark the Blazers sorely needed against the Rockets. While he is not as good defensively as Niclolas Batum, he usually does a creditable job.

Second, they get back from injury a guy who played in 61 games last year. But none of those games were at full strength. It is well known that microfracture surgery slows guys down for nearly a full year after their return, as Kenyon martin, A'mare Stoudemire and others can attest. So welcome back, Greg Oden.

Gone is the hulking mass of muscle that was Oden last year and in its place is a quick, agile guy who moves his feet, has good lateral quickness, has shown explosive leaping ability and excellent timing.

This is a guy who will defend the paint, clean the glass, and has shown some rapid improvement offensively. He turns the center position from above average defensively but non-factor on offense into decent offensively with the potential to be spectacular defensively.

Adding Oden, Webster, Howard and Miller to a roster that earned 54 wins last season shouts potential. This is a team that has everything it needs to win and win now.

The starting line-up looked set until Nicolas Batum went down with a shoulder injury. Fortunately, this team is so deep that his absence until possibly February should not slow this team down at all...and might even help it. The 18 or so minutes he played last year will be taken up by Webster and possibly allow a few more minutes for Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez.

Now the starting line-up will probably see Oden at Center, LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward, Webster at the 3, Brandon Roy at shooting guard and Steve Blake at the point.

This is a team that has great interior defense and suspect perimeter guarding skills. At the other end of the court, with Blake and Webster manning the 3-point line, teams will have to pick their poison. Do they want to double team Aldridge on the block or let him wreck their interior? Oden is a threat to throw down some ferocious dunks off offensive boards.

Alternatively, they can double Aldridge and Oden, only to see Webster and Blake kill them from distance. All of this does not even take into account Roy, the best offensive player the Blazers have.

There is not much of a let-down off the bench, either.

Joel Przybilla is not going to score much, but he will block shots, rebound, and generally provide a physical presence.

Juwan Howard will play in short stretches and provide steady, veteran leadership...if he gets minutes at all. Those might go to Outlaw, who has played very well at the power forward spot. His length and speed make him a match-up nightmare. Not strong enough to bang with starter-quality big men, he is more than capable of taking on second unit players from almost every team in the NBA. Furthermore, he provides the second unit with a guy who can create his own shot at will.

Outlaw will also see minutes at small forward, but will share those with swing-man Rudy Fernandez. Coming off a year where he set the rookie record for 3-pointers, he provides dynamic offense. He kind of reminds me of Vinnie "the Microwave" Johnson from the Bad Boys days. he can light it up in a hurry. when his shot is not falling, he has shown the capability and willingness to drive the lane and put up points there. His defense is somewhat suspect, but he fills the passing lanes very well.

That brings us to Andre Miller. He will start the season coming off the bench. With this line-up, there is some potential for him to do what he does best, which is to run the floor and play an up-tempo game. Fernandez and Outlaw look to benefit from this style of play.

So Portland is stacked. There second team would compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and their starting line-up is as good as any in the league.

The only thing that can keep them from doing serious damage in the playoffs is not believing in themselves.

This is not to make light of teams like the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Nuggets. the Spurs have an incredibly potent starting line-up, the Nuggets have the potential to be one of the most explosive offensive juggernauts not named the Suns in the last few years, and the Lakers, coming off a title, only got better with Ron Artest replacing Trevor Ariza.

But the Blazers are actually that good. Yes, I might be looking at them through rose-colored glasses...but I do not think so.

Starting the moment they drafted Brandon Roy and got Aldridge in a draft-day trade, they have gotten better and better. They got to 41 wins quicker than (almost) anyone thought possible. They got to 54 wins when most people thought 47 or 48 wins would be a great year. And now we are hearing a form of the same thing.

"The jump from 21 wins to 32 was one thing, but getting to .500 is a lot harder." was the assessment after 2006-07.

"It is one thing to get to 41 wins, but the jump to 50 wins is a lot harder," was the belief after 07-08.

"Getting to 54 wins is great, but getting to 60 from 54 is a lot harder than getting to 54." is a pretty common pre-view this year.

Maybe. But this team has not only shown steady improvement, they have shown they know what the next step they need to take is.

Roy, time after time last year, in post-game interviews would discuss the next thing the Blazers needed to do rather than gushing about the things the team had accomplished up to that time. And one thing after another fell. They beat San Antonio. He almost single-handed ended the long losing streak to the Suns when he poured in a "quiet 52 points". He was not going to lose to the Suns on that night.

This season, the Blazers will have Roy's drive, the return of improved Oden, the natural progression of Aldridge and Fernandez, the steadying veteran influences of Howard and Miller, and the hunger to take them higher than people believe possible.

This is a team that should finish north of 60. "It is harder to get to 60 than 54". Only if you do not have the talent. This team has the talent to win well over 60 games.

It is a team that has the talent to win any series they encounter in the playoffs. They have seen it now, they know what it takes. They have won in Utah. They have won in San Antonio. They need to get Denver out of their heads and get a win there.

Their goal this year should be one thing. It is not, "getting to the playoffs". It is not "getting home court". It is not "getting out of the first round". Their goal, plain and simple, should be winning it all.

They need to start Tuesday night against Houston. They need to come out and set the tone for the season, taking it to a decent but over-matched Rocket team. Then, Thursday, when Denver arrives, they need to serve notice the Northwest Title is staying in Portland this year, but this time it will not be shared. Then, on Halloween, they need to go into Houston and accomplish that which eluded them in the playoffs; a win.

No excuses. No saying, "it is a tough place for us to win". Plain and simple, they need to come out and show they are the team to beat this year.

Unlike last year, when they started with a schedule so brutal it ranked as the toughest start since the 60s, Portland has a relatively soft schedule this year.

I am going to come out and flat out say it would be a choke job to lose to Houston on opening night. Denver is good enough to win in Portland, but that is what sets great teams apart from the very good; defending home court. So I will say Portland should win that one, too.

They then have road games at Houston and Oklahoma City. Both are eminently winnable.

They then have a 3 game home stand in which only San Antonio should be tough. then 5 road games, with only the Hornets and Hawks being games Portland should not be favored in. Home versus Detroit, a game at Golden State, then 4 more at home before closing November out at Utah.

It would not be a huge shock for Portland to be 15-4 by the end of November. They are that good.

So yeah, I am going to go out on a limb here. The low end expectation for the Blazers is Conference Finals and it is not out of the realm of possibility for them to win a title. Not next year. Not three years from now. Not after they start losing guys because they cannot afford to keep them around.

This year.

60+ wins, at least Conference Finals is my prediction.

Partying in the streets is my hope. I think they are probably about 5-1 against winning a title, but that is not beyond reasonable to see. Lets get this party started.

Do the Blazers need to bring in outside players?

When last season started, I was considered unreasonably optimistic. Respected sites  with good reputations pointed out that the jump from 41 wins to 50 wins was much more difficult than the jump to 41 wins had been, yet I confidently predicted a 53 win season which was itself exceeded by their 54 wins.

Looking at next season, I feel confident that 60 wins is not only reachable, it is on the low end of what we can expect to see from this young, talented, exciting Blazers team. Even now, most of the same sites are saying holding steady at 54 wins will be difficult enough but a couple of wins more might be attainable if the Blazers make no new acquisitions.

That is flawed thinking. The Blazers did have flaws last year, and the Rockets exposed two of those in their upset of Portland in the first round.

First and foremost, the Blazers did not display the defensive reputation or intensity they needed to. The Rockets had the reputation and were very intense and as a result were allowed to hack, clutch, grab, push, and shove their way to a marked advantage. 

Secondly, the Blazers starting line-up had only two primary scorers and one secondary scorer. Neither Joel Przybilla or Nicolas Batum was any scoring threat at all. As a result, when Blake missed shots he normally made, it allowed the Rockets to focus even more attention on Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge which limited their effectiveness. 

This off-season is an opportunity for the Blazers to correct both of those short-comings, and they do not need any other players to do that. Before I go further into this analysis, I should point out a couple of things.

First, one reason I really, really love this edition of the Blazers has to do with the make-up of the team. Both Roy and Aldridge have been Blazers since draft day. So have Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless and Martell Webster. Though neither Joel Przybilla or Steve Blake started as Blazers, they both made a conscious choice to come here when the team had a poor record and have spent enough time here that they "feel" like they  have been career Blazers.

Second, one of the joys for me of watching a team is watching the development. I remember well watching Clyde Drexler, Jerome Kersey, Terry Porter, and Kevin Duckworth go from (other than Drexler) essentially unknowns into a team that twice in three years got to the NBA Finals. Now, in contradiction to this post, that was in no small part rue to the import of Buck Williams, but I will address that shortly.

The first and most dangerous short-coming was the defensive intensity. My bias is clear, so it is obvious that in that series with the Rockets it was very, very frustrating to watch Luis Scola body-slamming Aldridge at one end without getting called for a foul, then watch Oden get called for a touch-foul outside the free throw line at the other end. It was even more frustrating to watch Ron Artest hand-check, clutch, grab, and shove Roy all over the court and never get called while Blake was getting called for doing much less in trying to contain Aaron Brooks.

And topping that off was watching Yao Ming hack anybody in sight, yet the call go against the defender. Again and again Przybilla or Oden would get to the defensive spot first, Ming would come down, give them a full-out two-hand shove, and when they tried to get back in position the referees would whistle a foul on the Blazer big men.

It was not fair officiating, it had a huge impact on the outcome of the series, and it illustrates the first thing the Blazers need to do. Th Rockets got away with fouling as defense because they have the reputation of doing that. So the Blazers need to get that reputation.

In every game they need to come out over-aggressive. They need to learn to push and shove, to clutch and grab and foul until the referees decide "that is how they play defense" and stop calling it on Portland, just as they have done for the Rockets, for Bruce Bowen, for Dahntay Jones, and so forth.

By establishing a reputation as "rugged, physical defenders" they will begin to get calls that are more in line with what other teams get. 

That is a horrible thing to say because it is not good basketball. If I want to watch men clutch and grab and push and shove each other, I will go watch wrestling. One reason to love basketball is for the athletic  prowess they display. Their agility, leaping ability, and speed are far more entertaining that watching people foul each other and see who gets the calls. But if you aren't going to be allowed to play a skilled game, then go with what you have to do. So foul early, foul often and start getting the "respect" you deserve.

The Blazers already have a few players that would benefit mightily from this new attitude and at least two of them would cover one of the biggest deficiencies they faced last year.

First, Jerryd Bayless. He has a reputation as a "defensive bulldog" who plays tough, in-your-face defense. He got called for a lot of touch-fouls last year which limited his effectiveness but if he were allowed the same leeway that Artest, for example, received then he would be able to more than adequately defend the Aaron Brooks type point guard that was an Achilles Heel all year for the Blazers. He has the speed, agility, and mind-set to be a top perimeter defender.

Nicolas Batum would be another. He was already the best perimeter defender the Blazers had. He did an excellent job on even Chris Paul and Dwayne Wade while still matching up with small forward like Carmelo Anthony. He would only get better if instead of using his feet and skill to defend he just started hacking and grabbing anybody who beat him but not getting called for fouls. 

Inside, Greg Oden would be even more effective if he got time on the court instead of the bench. There is no doubt he commits fouls. Well, let me rephrase that. According to THE RULES there is no doubt he commits fouls. But if he were called the same way Ming or Shaquille O'Neal were officiated, he would be a defensive menace and far more effective offensively as icing on the cake.

If Portland had players such as Bayless and Batum to anchor the perimeter and Oden and Aldridge to anchor the interior, they would quickly become one of the very best defensive teams in all of basketball. That is by using the same players they now possess.

The second issue can also be addressed with the same players they now have. Lets start with perimeter scoring.

Going into last season, Martell Webster was the starting small forward. He was coming off a third straight season of improvement and had upped his scoring average to 10.7 per game. More importantly, he had watched James Jones for a year and was learning things he could do to make himself more integral to the Blazers offense. More often would he ball fake from his corner post and drive into the lane. It created a whole extra element to the Blazers offense. Had he played last season, it is not unreasonable that he could have added 2 - 5 points to his average and provided that third reliable scorer somewhere in the middle teens.

A Blazer squad with Roy scoring 22, Aldridge 18, Blake 11, and Webster 13 points looks a lot different than that same line-up where Batum and 6 points replace Webster and 13. Too often this season Batum passed up wide open shots and was such a non-factor in the offense that it allowed teams to sag off him and double-team Aldridge or Roy.

That is one reason Coach Nate McMillan tried starting Rudy Fernandez late in the Rockets series. However, it fouled up all the rotations and reduced the once-formidable scoring punch of his bench without providing a commensurate spike in their defensive ability. 

This season, with the return of Webster, he will have the ability to provide that scoring punch in the starting line-up. Either Webster will start or, should they choose to keep Batum in that role, the pressure of having Webster and Outlaw behind him will force Batum to look for his shot more aggressively. When the small forward position is scoring, the Blazers are a much more potent offensive team.

All of which leads to the most important point. The Blazers will be much improved this year due to natural development and they have an excellent roster to ensure that. Let me explain.

Larry Bird has often been quoted (included in his autobiography Drive:The Story of My Life) as saying players such as Greg Kite were instrumental to the Celtics Championships. Now, those of you who recall those Celtic teams may recall that Kite saw little to no playing time. Those years saw guys like Kevin McHale, Robert Parrish, Dennis Johnson, Austin Carr and so forth take the bulk of the playing time.

But right behind them were talented players who pushed the starters to continue to excel lest they lose their spot on the floor. Now look at the Blazers.

Joel Przybilla will never be an offensive force but he is certainly a stalwart defender and rebounder. Greg Oden wants that position. Those two will push each other hard and the result can only be that both players will improve.

Additionally, Oden should now be almost completely recovered from micro fracture surgery. With all his prodigious speed and agility, he will be much improved from last year and thus create yet one more issue for opposing coaches when game-planning for the Blazers.

Aldridge continues to improve. The last month or so of the season saw the light click on for him defensively. There were stretches where he controlled games defensively and other times he dominated offensively. Look for those stretches to become more frequent and for him to be an All-Star very soon. His improvement alone should be worth a couple extra games for the Blazers.

It is Small Forward where we might see the greatest improvement. Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw will battle for the starting role. I believe Webster is the odds-on favorite to win it, but regardless of which player comes out on top, the battle will force all to improve.  

The triumvirate of players gives Portland tremendous flexibility. They can go Batum for defense, Webster for long-distance shooting, or Outlaw for someone who can create his own shot at will. And should Batum develop an offensive game or Webster a defensive mentality, this position could shift from weakness to strength in a heartbeat.

Shooting Guard is of course the strongest position the Blazers have. Roy continues to improve every year. He knows what needs done and works on that aspect of his game. He knows defense was a weakness last year so should be improved there. 

Behind him is Rudy Fernandez. Rudy will be hard-pressed to improve on his numbers from a year ago and indeed seems the most likely player to slightly regress. Yet even if he should slip a bit, the Blazers know they have options; Bayless and Webster both are comfortable in the role.

Which brings us to Bayless, perhaps the most potentially important improvement for the Blazers this upcoming season.

Last season he got caught up in his own press clippings from Summer League. By his own admission, scoring 30 a game there was the worst thing that could happen to him. This year he is focusing on applying the things he learned last year watching Steve Blake, one of the most under appreciated players the Blazers have.

Blake is not fast, is at best an adequate defender, cannot create his own shot and really doesn't create good looks for other players. He is not flashy and does not score a lot, nor rack up a lot of assists. As a result, many Blazer fans put a lot of the blame for last years playoff collapse on him.

That is not knowledgeable basketball criticism. Blake performs his role very well. He gets the Blazers into the correct offensive set, gets the ball into the hands of the people who should have it, stretches defenses with his normally reliable shooting, and most important, accepts and embraces his role.

This year will be key for Blake. Bayless will push hard for playing time. He is a superior defender who can penetrate the lane seemingly at will. With a year under his belt, he should finish more effectively and, if he sticks to his plan, will be a better distributor this season. That improvement alone will help the entire team and take strain off of several players.

The bench should be a strength again regardless of who ends up there. Lets assume the starting line-up is what many people thought it would be last year: Oden, Aldridge, Webster, Roy and Blake. That is a line-up that can score and rebound. Defense might be a problem.

That would leave a bench of Przybilla, Outlaw, Batum, Fernandez and Bayless.  Depending on how Batum and Bayless develop, they can catch up with massive firepower or hold/extend a lead with a defensive focus. They are very versatile; Outlaw is often best when playing power forward but has also been featured at small forward and spent time as shooting guard. Batum and Fernandez both slide between small forward and shooting guard. Bayless can play either guard position.

This is a team with three primary weaknesses; defensive toughness, experience, and injuries. Natural improvement should handle the scoring issue discussed earlier and teams tend to improve defensively as they grow together. This roster is deep enough to absorb some hits injury-wise, even to key players.

And all of this is without adding a Paul Millsap, Andre Miller or other player. Yes, McMillan wants a "veteran" player, but it could be argued with Przybilla and Blake, they already HAVE the type of players they would be bringing in. Why not stick with an essentially home-grown team that is good enough to start winning championships soon?

The Blazers as they are, with natural improvement, are a talented, versatile team that can score and rebound and, soon, defend. That is a pretty good recipe for success.

The Legend Grows: Roy leads the Blazers past the Rockets in game 2

Prior to the game I was shocked at how demoralized Blazer fans were. For example, at work there were 4 co-holders of season tickets. Two of them assumed the series was over to the point where one of them actually bet five bucks the Blazers would lose game two against the Rockets. 

All season I have had a very solid read on this team, from my pre-season prediction of 53 wins down to how they would fare in each month. As a result, they sometimes turn to me for my take on the game.

Blinded by my man-crush on LaMarcus Aldridge, I said, "L.A. will come out and have a huge game, Roy will have a better game, and the Blazers will win this one. It will probably be pretty close, but they will tie the series.

Got to the game and was talking with the guy who convinced me to get season tickets on my own, a good friend and poker buddy. He also thought the series was basically over.  I told him the same thing but he remained discouraged, even going so far as to say, "I don't even really want to go to a game 5 if they are down 3-1."

Nor was he alone in his sentiment. The buzz in the crowd was very similar. That game one crushing had the fans completely demoralized.

About five minutes into the game I turned to my wife and said, "They were right. Portland is going to lose." 

She looked at the scoreboard which showed the Blazers tied at 15. "Why would you say that?"

I pointed out that home teams which get humiliated in the first game typically come out super energized, build a nice lead, and then end up needing to hold on in the end. Visiting teams typically try to withstand the opening blitz without losing contact and then take over the game. Yet Houston not only withstood the blitz, they had led most of the way.

Furthermore, I had expected Aldridge to come out strong, looking for his shot, and take over the game. Instead, he was playing tentative, not taking the shots he normally took, and was a complete non-factor on offense.

Still, this team was so much fun to watch all year that we settled back to enjoy the ride.  And what a ride it was!

Some how, some way the Blazers overcame every obstacle. They overcame the demoralization from game one. They overcame being outnumbered eight to six on the floor. They overcame having scored 100 pints or more just once in a jaw-dropping 29 attempts against the Rockets. They overcame Ron Artest hitting some ridiculous, ridiculous shots.

Artest, by the way, deserves a lot of credit. He has rightly taken a lot of grief over the years for some of his actions, both on and off the court. But he has also done some things people ignore or do not know about. For example, during the down time between games one and two he searched out and performed some charity work. This was not well publicized.

He has also toughened up Houston and given them an edge that they did not have in prior years. More importantly, he saw this game was up for grabs and he did everything he could to grab it. Nicolas Batum is far and away the Blazers' best wing defender. He did a really great job on Artest. Several times he forced Artest into falling away to the left fade-away jumpers at or even beyond the three point line.

And Artest hit them. Sick, sick shots. He was destroying the Blazers. Roy was trying to match him but Portland needed someone to give Roy some help. As the early years of Michael Jordan  showed, no player, no matter how good, can single-handed win a playoff series. It takes a team.

Sometimes two players can. At the 8 minute mark of the second quarter we finally saw the Aldridge I expected early in the game. He hti a couple of post moves which opened the lane for Roy to score five quick points. Then he went back on the block and scored on four consecutive possessions. 

That forced the Rockets to double and triple team him, to focus their defense on him which then allowed Roy to go back to work.  Together they had 36 of Portland's' 53 first half points. Aldridge shot 8 for 10 in the first half. This was the guy I had expected to see.

Instead of passing the ball off and letting Luis Scola control him, he was imposing his will on Scola, on Yao Ming, on anyone who came near him. With the Rockets forced to divide their attention, Roy was carving them up inside.

The Rockets were also relying on two guys. In the first quarter it was Artest with 15 points. In the second quarter it was...well..unexpected. Yao Ming? I would believe that. Aaron Brooks? Yep, we have seen what he can do. But it was Von Wafer scoring 12 points of his own that kept Houston in the game. He simply could not be stopped.

At half time several things were obvious. First off, the Blazers were at a severe disadvantage. This was one of the worst officiated games I have seen in a long time. As in game one, the Blazers were getting into the paint with regularity. The Rockets were staying on the perimeter more except for Wafer. Yet the Rockets had a marked advantage at the line.

Unlike game one, this was not because they were playing solid defense. This was blown call after blown call. The real reason the calls were blown was because it was not being called the same way for both teams. Artest, Shane Battier, Scola, and Ming were allowed to knock people down without being called for fouls whereas  the Blazers were being called for a lot of pretty questionable calls. A couple of second half examples demonstrate it pretty well.

Scola ran off a screen on the left block. Aldrdige was getting by Ming, so Ming hip-checked him with a screen that moved about 3'. This hip check threw Aldridge into Scola, knocking Scola to the floor. We started celebrating that Ming would be picking up his fifth foul. Instead, it was called on Aldridge. Now, sure, he DID foul Scola...because he was fouled by Ming. This was Aldridge's fifth foul and would play a big role.

Greg Oden was under the basket on the defensive end. Brooks drove to the basket and Oden, seeing he could not stop him, stood there with his arms raised just as Ming had done at the other end. Moments later Brooks was at the line and Oden had fouled out. Had they made that call against Ming he would have fouled out in the first five minutes. 

If the games are officiated this way in Houston, look for two blow-outs because Portland cannot continue to compete five on eight. They were only able to in this game because of Roy and Aldridge. IN the second half, it was primarily Roy.

He scored 11 of the first 13 points in the second half, keeping them in the game until the rest of the team was finally ready to join him. The Rockets were scoring with regularity and only Roy kept this game from turning into a blow-out.

All game long it was Roy who kept the Blazers in contact when the rest of the team struggled except for the mid to late second quarter when Aldridge took over.  Roy scored from inside. He scored from mid-range. He scored from outside.

At one point late in the fourth quarter the Blazers were clinging to a tenuous 93-90 lead. Roy was given the ball at the top of the key with very little time left on the shot clock. Defending him one on one was Artest, a guy who is certainly one of the better wing defenders in the league. 

In fact, it was the ability of Artest and Battier to defend that had many Blazer fans convinced the Blazers would be unable to pull off a win in this game. And now, in a key moment, here was the match-up Blazer fans feared. There was a real feeling this possession could decide the game. And here was Artest via Roy with all the advantage to Artest:little time to work, no screens to free Roy, and officials who were unlikely to call a foul. Yeah, I know...he did shoot 12 free throws in the game. He should have had 20+.

Be that as it may, Roy did what All-Stars are supposed to do in these situations, even when matched up with top defenders. He found a way to score. He ball faked, got Artest moving and hit a contested three to give the Blazers a six point cushion. 

This game was about several things. First, it was Aldridge stepping up and having a big game. He did that. It was about Roy dominating, which he did with 42 points while adding seven rebounds and coming up with a key late block.

And it was about Joel Przybilla, Greg Oden, Aldridge, and everyone else focusing on not letting Ming dominate as he did in game one. 

They fronted, they double-teamed, they switched up on him, they came at him from a variety of angles, and just generally kept him from scoring. Certainly,. that opened things up for other Rockets to score as evidenced by six Rockets  scoring at least 10 points apiece. However, instead of shooting 60% plus when the game mattered, in this one they shot 50%. Still too high, but much more manageable.

By the time Roy hit a free throw with five seconds left to give Portland a 105-100 lead it was apparent that Portland had learned a lot of lessons from the first game. They grew up fast.

They never got down on themselves even when Houston took a five point lead early in the second. Roy hit all the right notes to keep the Blazers in the game. Przybilla provided some veteran leadership and Nate McMillan did a fantastic job of coaching to get their heads back in the game.

Even when normally reliable Steve Blake started to melt down, missing open shots and making uncharacteristic turnovers that led to dunks for the Rockets, the Blazers refused to cave in. They fought and battled their way.

Nor was it just Roy and Aldridge. Travis Outlaw showed us flashes of his Super-Trout persona, Greg Oden had a key follow-dunk, Rudy Fernandez had a crowd-inspiring steal and dunk, and the Blazers showed that yes, Roy is far and away their best player, but they are still first and foremost a team.

Roy could not win this game alone and the Blazers showed why they have been so good all year, turning in a team performance that resulted in overcoming an incredible final minute by Aaron Brooks in the final minute to hold on for a 107-103 victory.

Brooks is way more talented than advertised. His first desperation three was awesome. His ankle went about seventeen different directions as he tried to hold back from crossing the line, he went up for a desperation three that was well contested and somehow found the bottom of the net. Much as I hate any former Duck, that shot was simply spectacular.

In the end, it was everything we had expected from the first playoff game. The crowd was raucous and into it, even when the Blazers got down by a few points. They recognized the greatness they were seeing from both Roy and Aldridge, recognized the calls but did not get so caught up in hating on the referees that they forgot to enjoy the game, and in large part controlled the methods of cheering.

What I mean is instead of chants starting with the announcer or Blazer mascot, they started organically with the crowd. "Lets go Blazers" was probably the most popular one, though the ubiquitous "MVP" with Roy at the line and the "These refs suck" made a brief return when Oden fouled out. The point is, these chants did not start from electronic admonitions but from the fans getting juiced and rolling with it.

It remains to be seen if the Blazers have grown up enough to do what they need to do which is go into Houston and reclaim home court. Make no mistake, the Rockets did exactly what they needed to do in Portland which was get a split. Now the onus is on the Blazers to prove they deserved the higher seed by winning in Houston, which is no easy proposition.

They have only won once in the new Rocket arena and that was two years ago. It is tougher to win in the playoffs, but the Blazers have the talent to do it. Do they have the mental toughness? Perhaps I am blinded by my unapologetic love of the Blazers, but I think they do and will win one of the two. 

Then again, Houston is an excellent team that has the home court advantage. Games three and four should be a real war. Let's go along and enjoy the ride.

Series Preview:Why the Blazers Will Knock the Rockets out of the Playoffs

Over the course of the season, the records of the Houston Rockets and Portland Trailblazers were very similar. The Blazers checked in with a 54-28 record while Houston finished 53-29. Both records are spectacular in light of some of the trials the teams faced.

Portland spent the entire season without starting Small Forward Martell Webster. Webster had been showing improving defense on the perimeter but was more important in his role as defense-stretching 3-point specialist. His outside shooting forced teams to stay at home on him which would leave teams forced to help on the Blazers post men from other quarters. 

Without Webster the starting job fell to Nicolas Batum. This was not an anticipated move since as recently as summer league it was felt Batum was at least two years away from being ready for even a reserve role in the NBA.

The Rockets suffered an even more key injury, losing Tracy McGrady for 47 games.

Fortunately for both teams, they are deep enough and talented enough to mask the loss of key players. In Houstons case, McGrady is obviously far more important overall than Webster and their ability to vie for a Division Championship speaks well to their talent level. They are a very, very good team.

I would go so far as to argue the one game difference in overall records in meaningless. It is a mere statistical anomaly over the course of a long season. These teams are very closely matched.

Early in the season, a Rose Quarter game  illustrated that. Portland and Houston battled all game long with the Blazers holding 5 to 7 point leads until they took a 10 point lead with about 10 minutes to go. But Houston took it into overtime, setting up a Brandon Roy jumper, Yao Ming and-1, and Roy miracle trey in the last 1.9 seconds. The game was so tight it saw 3 lead changes in that space of time. They series might be that tight as well.

Except the Blazers are a much better team now than they were at that point in the year. One of my complaints about the team at that time was they had not yet developed a "killer instinct". They would often build comfortable leads only to see those leads melt away and the game decided in the closing seconds.

That is no longer true. They now know how to apply the pressure that turns comfortable leads into blow-outs. They know how to come back on teams, even very good teams as their recent double digit win in San Antonio after being down by 18 illustrates. 

More importantly, they finally know how good they are. Prior to the season they thought they were good enough to make the playoffs. As of a few weeks ago, they knew they were not only good enough to make the playoffs, but also to win some games and that they should at the least win a series.

In a series this close, the advantage lays with the home team. With that in mind, it is wise to look at the way teams closed the regular season. Both the Rockets and Blazers had chances to win games that would guarantee them home court. Houston was playing for a Division Title and Portland to maintain the tie-breaker over the Spurs.

Houston had a lead in Dallas but was unable to close it out, eventually falling to drop one game behind the Spurs on the last day of the season. Portland led the Nuggets all game and put the hammer down, blowing them out.

I am sure Rockets fans will correctly point out the Rockets were on the road against a team also fighting for seeding. Fair enough. In a game both teams desperately wanted...they did not get the job done. Call it the McGrady effect.

For whatever reason, recent Rockets teams have had a pattern. They are great regular season teams that find ways to lose series they should win in the playoffs. Of course, this will be their first time with Ron Artest, a talented wing defender and good scorer. He unquestionably makes them a better team.

He is also illustrative of one of the keys to the series. The Rockets are an excellent defensive team. Luis Scola is a very physical defender, Shane Battier is an above average defender, and the shot-blocking of Yao Ming can sometimes close off the paint.

They are no slouches on offense, either. They have seven guys who score over or near double figures. They can score inside or out. They rebound well. There is a reason this team won 53 games.

But the Blazers are pretty solid as well. It starts with their improved power forward.

LaMarcus Aldridge started the season as a good help defender who sometimes got torched by less skilled post players. As the season progressed, however, he developed his game more and more. If the All-Star game were held today and he were not on it, that would be a mistake because he has come that far this season.

He has developed a very strong post game. He is at his best on the left post where he can spin inside or come across the lane for a sweeping hook. If needed, he can step out to the perimeter for his silky smooth jump shot. 

At this point, people wonder why it did not start with Brandon Roy. Anybody who does not know what Roy can do yet is just not a dedicated NBA follower. He is the engine that makes the Blazers go. He can penetrate the lane seemingly at will, either to dish for open looks or to score on hapless defenders. 

His defense is all over the board. At times he is a lock-down defender but at other times he can be exploited. Fortunately for the Blazers, there is nobody on the Rockets who will be able to regularly explode on Roy from the guard position.

Joel Przybilla is a solid interior defender and above average rebounder. He is limited offensively, but the other starters for Portland cover up for that. Well, sometimes they do.

Nicolas Batum will in many ways be a key to the series. Defensively he brings it every night. He is the Blazers best on the ball defender and best help defender. He gets into the passing lanes, he tips balls, and harasses talented scorers into sub-par nights.

However, it is his offense where he needs to become more consistent. On some nights he is very aggressive. He takes the open shot, drives the lane with abandon, gets out and runs, and turns the Blazers into a deadly offensive unit that very few teams can stay with. When he is taking his shots, the Blazers are a cohesive, talented offensive unit.

The final starter is oft-maligned Steve Blake. Blake is a weak perimeter defender. Fortunately, the Rockets do not have Tony Parker or Chris Paul. Aaron Brooks is a fine player but he is not going to torch the Blazers night after night, thus covering one weakness for the Blazers. Offensively, Blake is a perfect fit.

He has gotten better about creating havoc for opposing defenses by getting into the lane more often and is able to play off Roy's penetrations by staying home and hitting the open three. He is generally good about not turning the ball over. He is a very steady player who can score when needed.

Off the bench the Blazers bring a lot of firepower. Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez have excellent chemistry. Rodriguez finds Fernandez for so many open looks that Fernandez set the Rookie record for most threes in a season. Defensively they can be exploited as they focus too much on playing the passing lanes and sometimes forget to defend their man. Still, they should outscore former Blazer Von Wafer and Kyle Lowry.

It is in Travis Outlaw that the Blazers really shine. Outlaw has been overlooked by the rest of the NBA but should have been considered both this year and last for the Sixth Man of the Year.

Defensively, he is an enigma. At times he is dominating. His agility and length can cause problems for even a Kobe Bryant or LeBron James. At other times he gets lit up by D-League scrubs. He is at his best coming from off the ball to block shots or getting spectacular blocks in transition.

It is on offense that he really shines. He has improved his shooting from deep but is at his best slashing to the hoop for highlight reel dunks or using his jab step and incredible leaping ability to create clean looks at the hoop, often against double teams. He gets so high so quick that defenders not named Dwayne Wade have no hope of reasonably contesting his shot.

Additionally, if he is not the Blazers best fourth quarter player then he is at least in the conversation. When you consider the fact the Blazers have Brandon Roy playing for them, that is quite a statement but one Blazer fans recognize.

Again and again Outlaw has provided a spark for the Blazers. He explodes in huge bursts, often racking up double digit points in two or three minute spans. The more the Blazers need  a big fourth quarter, the more likely they are to see Outlaw turn into "Super-Trout"*. 

All of this does not even address rookie enigma Greg Oden. He can be awe-inspiring and game changing or in and out of the game so quick you almost do not even notice he was there. 

Defensively he can be outstanding. When he is feeling it, he is a premier shot-blocker. He has developed into a well-above average rebounder. He has regained his quickness and agility to the point where it is not as big of a mis-match as you would suspect when he gets caught on the perimeter. He moves his feet quick enough to stay with all but the quickest of players. It is offensively where his game is unsteady.

Oden is somewhat limited. He has an increasing repertoire of post moves but for the most part he wants to be Shaquille O'Neal. He likes to back people down and run over them. Unfortunately for Oden, the offensive fouls O'Neal committed for years that were called on the defender actually get called on Oden.

The playoffs should help that. For whatever reason, playoffs see things that were fouls in the regular season become "no-calls". This helps guys like Bruce Bowen, Luis Scola, Ron Artest, Joel Przybilla, and Greg Oden. Yeah, I know Bowen isn't in this series, but he illustrates the points.

When players are allowed to be more physical, it benefits players who have the ability and desire to be more aggressive. That means Oden should see fewer calls against him which will lead to his being a greater presence in the series.

Overall, this series should be very close and entertaining. I would not even be surprised to see both teams get a game on the opponents home floor. But in the end, the improvement the Blazers have shown combined with their overall slightly higher talent level and having the home court will make all the difference. Portland should win in either five or seven games. 

*(Outlaw's nickname is "Trout" for T-Outlaw" and when he has one of his patented explosions some people refer to him as Super-Trout).