Can half a team defeat the Suns? Check out the Blazers

The Phoenix Suns are prohibitive favorites to defeat the Portland Trailblazers in the first round of the playoffs.

Lets get that off our chest first thing. The players who will be on the floor throughout the series have produced more effectively and more cohesively for the Suns than the Blazers.

In Amar'e Stoudemire and Steve Nash they have the two best players who will appear on the court. In Grant Hill and Jason Richardson they have guys who are above average secondary players that can light up a score sheet.

In Channing Frye, Louis Amundsen, Leandro Barbossa and Jared Dudley they have guys who know their roles and take pride in them.

The bottom line is the Suns record is no accident. They got the three seed on the last day of the season, but they put themselves in a position to get that seed by winning tough, important games in tough situations like Utah on the road when both teams were fighting for high seeding.

Any Blazer fan who looks at this series as anything other than a very probably second consecutive first round exit is delusional.

At the same time, any Blazer fan who does not have at least some hope that the upset is likely enough to induce them to purchase tickets for the playoffs and have a fair amount of optimism they will get to see the Blazers in Game 6 has not been paying attention.

The NBA season is a learning experience. It takes time for players, no matter how talented, to learn to play together. This was evidenced early in the season when a Blazer team that was more talented than last seasons' 54 win edition was struggling, giving up bad losses on their home floor.

20 games in, I had this to say:

Yet 20 games into the season Portland has already lost four home games, including a blow-out loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, has trailed for 11 consecutive quarters, and worse yet, looks like they are a team that does not care. What happened?

Part of the answer was they were struggling to adapt to a different playing style, to a different mix of players on the floor.

Entering the playoffs, that is happening again. The addition of Marcus Camby turned Portland into a better team. The loss of Brandon Roy makes them worse...but presents an opportunity.

Lest anyone misunderstand what comes next, let's get this out there. The Trailblazers with Brandon Roy are vastly better than the Blazers without Brandon Roy.

With that said, arguably the best line-up the Blazers currently possess does not necessarily include Roy. Camby, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster and Andre Miller is a team that can give any team in the NBA fits.

Defensively, they are quick, agile, aggressive, and interchangeable. Camby calls sets, has the agility and willingness to cover everything from a post-up center down to brief periods of at least contesting the small, quick guards. Under his tutelage, Aldridge is showing flashes of being a superior defender who plays off the Camby style and has, with the exception of the shot-blocking, the same set of capabilities, though not at the same level.

Batum and Webster both get up on their man, switch with little to no drop-off, and this season have shown a consistent dedication to defense.

This unit is capable of putting out stretches of defensive coverage that can hold even explosive offensive teams to sub-20 quarters or multiple minute stretches of scorelessness. Nor are they hapless offensively.

Blazer fans regularly label Aldridge as soft because he does not post up as often as they would like. I reject that assessment. He knows his strengths, plays to them, and has been working at his post game, showing improvement from season to season, month to month, and at times game to game.

Last year, I would have said trying to run the offense through him against Stoudemire would be a disaster. This season, he has improved to the point where it is something Portland can do. Aldridge has improved to the point where he commands the double team which opens up Webster and Batum to stretch the defense with their very capable outside shooting.

The problem is, that line-up cannot play 48 minutes. So what are the Suns weaknesses the Blazers can exploit over the course of the game?

Frye, Amundson, Dragic and Dudley. Please note; I have respect for their games. I am a big Channing Frye guy to the point where I encourage you to check out his blog. I want him to tear it up against every team except Portland.

But they are the weak link for the Suns. They do not have a history of producing in the playoffs. (The cynic might point out Hill has as many second round appearances as this Blazer team, but I have too much respect for his game and do not think that is his fault.)

They are exploitable. Dudley and Amundson are not the type of players who dominate a game so much as fill a role. Those roles can be stifled which creates an opportunity for the Blazers to steal a game here and there. When they are going good, they make the Suns great if not unbeatable, but they are less likely to show greatness game after game after game like Stoudemire, Nash, Richardson, Hill and Barbosa.

Of course, the problem for the Blazers is that all the negatives I just pointed out about the Suns point to some pretty important guys for the Blazers; Batum, Webster, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless...

All of which means the Blazer need several things to break right in order to pull off the upset.

Aldridge needs to have the oft-cited "breakout series" where he dials up 25+ points a night, as does Miller. The second tier guys like Batum, Webster, Bayless and Fernandez need to be the players they are in flashes rather than the players they are that keep them fighting for time and recognition.

Webster, Fernandez and Batum in particular are vital. These are three guys who, when hitting their shots, make the Blazers nearly unbeatable when combined with the stifling defense the Blazer line-up referenced above is capable of playing. When they are engaged in the game, hitting their shots, and involved there is no team in the NBA that they are not capable of beating or even blowing out.

That defines the series. Not necessarily the play of Nash, Stoudemire, Richardson, Hill, Aldridge and Miller...but the play of guys like Frye and Fernandez.

If the second tier players of one team are more consistent than the production seen by the other, that decides the series.

As a Blazer fan, I dearly want the upset. I want to see the Blazer defense slow the Suns, guys like Webster to have those scoring explosions we sporadically see, and the Blazers squeeze into the second round.

They have the talent to do it. they have the will.

At the end of the day, whichever team wins this series is the one I want to see in the NBA Finals. I am fully aware it is a long-shot for the Blazers. I am just grateful that they have a team talented enough that, even if it is unlikely, it is at least a remote, remote, remote possibility.

I hope this series goes seven games in a call-back to the classic battles of the Kevin Johnson/Dan Majerle Suns verse the Clyde Drexler/Terry Porter Blazers. I want to see 7 games decided in the final minute with clutch shots from unlikely players. I want to see the upset.

The recipe for the Blazers is simple. Pound the ball inside to Aldridge and play off the double teams to generate open looks which their role players must convert. Dominate the boards, play stifling defense, and hope Nash, Stoudemire, Richardson and Hill forget that is who they are and play like mortals.

Good luck and good health to both teams.

Chris Bosh or LaMarcus Aldridge; Not who is better, but who really fits?

In response to a recent post explaining why I elected not to renew my season tickets largely due to the trade of Travis Outlaw, I was asked what I thought of the LaMarcus Aldridge for Chris Bosh trade rumors.

In some respects, it is an intriguing question and one that is difficult for me to be objective about. I freely admit to being a huge LaMarcus Aldridge mark. I am tired of the oft-cited and remarkably inept criticisms that Aldridge is "soft", that his post-up game is not good enough, that he relies too much on his jump shot, that his defense is inadequate and his rebounding borderline incompetent.

I also recognize the skill Bosh brings to the table. There is a lot to compare in their games.

Both players have silky smooth mid-range jumpers. Inside his range, I actually think Bosh is the superior shooter, though that is merely anecdotal evidence. Due to his playing in Toronto, I have only ever seen a handful of his games and as a result I must base most of my opinion on statistics, which often lie.

Based on statistics the team of Tom Chambers, Xavier McDaniel and Dale Ellis was awesome when in truth, they scored a lot but gave up a lot of points too. Their scoring numbers say nothing about their individual or team defense, their cohesiveness, or those little things teammates do to improve each other.

So I must base my analysis of Bosh on the games I have seen live in Portland for the most part.

Bosh is a genuine pleasure to watch in warm-ups. His jumper is silky smooth and sometimes you wonder if he will ever even hit the rim. Shot after shot brings that delicious snap of the net as the ball comes through on the precise trajectory to demonstrate the purity of a perfect shot.

Step-back, side-shuffle, face-up. Shot after shot after shot goes swish, swish, swish. His movement is crisp, his motions sure and effortless. He is a skilled player indeed, and this does not change when the game starts.

If a defender gives him the slightest space he rises up and two points go up on the board for the Raptors. Crowd him and he puts the ball on the floor and gets inside. I have rarely seen him do back to the basket post-up moves, but that does not say he is not a post player. I actually cannot honestly answer that question due to the paucity of coverage the Raptors get in Portland. I can say I have repeatedly seen him face up his man, get to the rim and finish strong.

On defense, Bosh appears to me to be better than average. He is strong enough to avoid getting run down, quick enough to help out when his guards get beat, and is an excellent rebounder. He has a very well-rounded game and would be an instant upgrade to almost any team that acquired him. You can count on two fingers the number of power forwards who are anywhere near his production and skill level.

Aldridge, meanwhile, has slightly better range than Bosh and, while not as high a percentage shooter, is still very good. He does have a post -game which is oft-maligned, and there is some merit to that. Of course, part of the problem with the criticism is it represents a poor analysis of Aldridge's game.

He is still developing his post play and, while it has shown vast improvement in the last couple of years, it is not yet the strength of his game. There are certain defenders against whom Aldridge simply has not yet been able to develop an effective move against. He recognizes this and, instead of continuing to put himself in a bad match-up, he drifts out to the perimeter where he has the advantage.

Not continuing to force up tough, contested shots in bad situations is an intelligent basketball play. Unfortunately, too many fans give the knee-jerk "Aldridge is soft" answer. I have a suggestion to those fans. Stick a sock in it and watch his game.

Aldridge plays down low against the big guys and, while his rebounding numbers are not huge, take a look at the timing and manner of them. Game after game I watch him come away with key rebounds whenre seven, eight, maybe nine guys are clustered inside the key trying to get the board and somehow Aldridge rips down what I like to call "man-boards".

He is not afraid to match up with players like Amar'e Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and so forth night after night. He works hard, stays in the team concept, and does his job.

I genuinely believe part of the reason his rebound numbers are quote "low" is due to the guys next to him. Joel Przybilla, Greg Oden and Marcus Camby are all superior rebounders. An example would come from the Portland-Washington game of March 19th, 2010.

There were precisely 100 available non-free throw rebounds available. Camby came away with 19 of those, a staggering number that means nearly one of five times there was a ball caroming off the rim, Camby snagged it.

Assuming teams will garner approximately one half of the available rebounds and each player will contribute, that means the remaining nine players have roughly thirty rebounds to share among themselves. Guards are generally good for two to three apiece and the Blazers run four. Forwards should get roughly four to five apiece in the Portland system, and the Blazers essentially have three forwards other than Aldridge, so there are roughly forty-nine of the rebounds available accounted for. That is without Aldridge.

Naturally, part of the statistical analysis is average, and on any given night a guy who averages five boards might go without while a guy who averages two might get seven.

Aldridge checks in at a fairly steady seven to eight a night. He seldom has less, but often has more such as the dozen he tallied against the Wizards.

Even more notably, when the Blazers were starting Methuselah... err, Juwan Howard at center, or even rookie Jeff "Li'l Bit" Pendergraph, Aldridge was dialing up double digit boards seemingly every night.

His deflated rebound numbers are partially a product of the players he plays with is the short form of the statement I am making.

As Aldridge's biggest defender, I also think his defense is unfairly maligned. I am not nervous when he gets caught on the perimeter against smaller, quick players because he is quick enough, agile enough, and long enough to contest their shots. Of course, sometimes they score because that is what the Chris Pauls and Tony Parkers of the NBA world do...they score against bad defense, average defense, and good defense.

Aldridge is at his best coming off his man to contest a shot, but he is also a decent man to man defender. He is often accused of lacking intensity, and this is accurate. He also likes to slap at the ball low a bit much for my liking, but he also pokes away a lot of balls.

He is definitely not an All-NBA defender, but he is improving every year.

Off the court, there is little to complain about for either player. In many ways, Bosh has certain advantages in that regard. Chris Bosh has a great sense of humor, though it is flawed...he seems to find Will Ferrell funny despite stuff like Semi-Pro. 3

Bosh is also noted for his work in the community and has a lot going for him as a potential player.

Let me emphasize again that I am a huge Aldridge player and, since everyone else jumped on the Roy bandwagon, he is probably my absolute favorite player.

With that said, I believe Bosh is the superior overall player. Bosh is better defensively and offensively, he seems to get along with his teammates better than Aldridge, who is oft criticized by local media for being standoffish (which may have more to do with media perception than actual truth...I am not privy to the internal workings of the Blazers organization).

He very well could improve the Blazers to the point where a Championship goes from being a realistic but somewhat long shot possibility next season to a favorite if he were traded for some package such as Aldridge, Martell Webster, and whatever spare parts were needed to make the salaries match up.

Of course, there are several problems with the above scenario, and just to save the people who hate my article time, let me present a couple; Bosh may not want to leave Toronto, he may not want to come to Portland, the deal might not make sense from Torontos' standpoint as they may not feel the value in return is sufficient.

I, of course, feel Aldridge and Webster would be far too much to give up. And this has nothing to do with their respective ability.

I love Aldridge's game, I love that he has been a Bloazer since draft day, and I hope that he retires a Blazer. I do not want to see him in a Raptors uniform. In fact, you can replace the word "Raptors" with any team in the league not named "Blazers".

I hate any trade that sends Greg Oden, Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless, or Martell Webster away. Shrewd drafting has given the Blazers a roster that was "born" together, has grown up together, and it is time to watch them roll the League together.

I want to see the home-grown, home-developed players take their shot. Yes, I know about the problems...I know that Batum's development is limiting Webster's role. I know that Fernandez wants more playing time, a bigger role, and more money. I know the criticisms of Bayless as point guard and Oden as injury prone, of Roy as a weak defender and Aldridge as a soft player.

I also know that I love watching these guys play together, I love knowing they started their NBA PLAYING careers as Blazers and they are good enough to take a run at a couple of titles.

No, I am not a complete and total homer. I recognize how much acquiring Marcus Camby has improved the team this year, regardless of how much I hate the cost of losing another personal favorite, Travis Outlaw. I recognize that with all the injuries and the surprisingly poor play before the injuries started, Portland is not as good this season as the Cavaliers, Magic, Nuggets, Celtics, Lakers, and maybe even teams like the Suns, Hawks, Spurs, Jazz and maybe one or two others.

But they will be if and when they get healthy.

The fact that the Blazer teams of Clyde Drexler, Terry Porter, Kevin Duckworth and Jerome Kersey never won a title never made me love watching them any less. If Portland could have traded Kersey for Pippen in their primes and won multiple titles, I would have loved them less because Pippen would be an import.

Yes, I grew to love the game of Buck Williams, but he was never as cool to me as our home-grown guys.

Yes, I love watching Andre Miller play, and his expanding game...two dunks this season, which I believe is probably a career high, and possibly a career TOTAL, is entertaining. Watching Camby block shot after shot and pull down rebound after rebound is cool. But I still like watching "my" guys more.

And the same would hold true for an Aldridge-Bosh trade. On a basketball level, depending on who they gave up, I think it would be an improvement for Portland. But on a personal level, I hate it.

And that gets to the root of fandom. Am I a fan of the player or the franchise? The real answer is both. I admit I turned on Drexler a bit when he more or less quit on Portland when it became obvious their run at a title was over, only to rejuvenate his career in Houston. I did not want to see him win a title there.

Kersey in a Laker uniform is a crime against humanity I will never get free from. I was sad to see him in Warriors, Spur and Buck gear...but I might have shed a tear when he wore that hated uniform. Porter played with the Timberwolves, Heat and Spurs. that also makes me sad.

Not because I did not want Drexler, Porter, Kersey, Cliff Robinson and so forth to have long, meaningful careers or that I did not want the Blazers to move forward. It was more because my development as a basketball and sports fan coincided with the careers of the players.

One reason I do not particularly follow college basketball is because of the rampant player change. Great college players are typically there for one or two years, good ones for three, and pedestrian players for four. Yes, there are exceptions, but that is pretty common.

That means to follow college basketball and have any real in-depth knowledge of what is going on, I have to learn four, five, six new players and their styles every year.

By contrast, even before this season ends and off-season moves take place, I have a pretty good idea of how the Blazers will play. For that matter, I can tell you what the typical Spurs, Nugget, Clipper or Warrior game will look like next year.

I know their offensive concept and where players should be on any given play. I know who should get the most shots and where those shots should come from. Sure, there will be adjustments. Of Patty Mills, Dante Cunningham, Jeff Pendergraph, Marcus Camby, Martell Webster, Andre Miller, and Rudy Fernandez there are likely to be anywhere from three to six new names in those places.

But I also expect the opening night Blazer line-up, barring injury, to have Oden, Aldridge, Batum and Roy for sure (and most likely Miller, but who knows?). I expect Aldridge to be posted up on the first two to three possessions, with Oden getting a couple of those and Roy driving at some point in the first five minutes or else taking that gorgeous pull-up jumper foul-line extended.

I would hate to see that broken up too soon even for a player such as Bosh. That is personal preference...but it is a strong one.

2-3? Reeling Blazer Fans wonder what happened

Going into the season, my hopes for this year's Blazer team were sky-high. Coming off a very fun 54-28 year, having upgraded the three weakest positions, and entering the fourth year for the heart and soul of the team to be together, I optimistically suggested 60+ wins, a Western Conference Finals or better appearance, and an opening month with a record as sparkling as 15-4.

Just a couple weeks later the team seems to be in disarray. They almost gave up a home game to the out-manned Rockets then did lose at home to not only the Nuggets but also to the Hawks.

This is not a shot at the Rockets, Nuggets, or Hawks. The Nuggets look to have a good shot at giving the Lakers a run for their money for best record in the conference based on their play without J.R. Smith. The Rockets have been playing unbelievably well. And the Hawks are one of my dark horse teams in the Eastern Conference with a roster somewhat similar to the Blazers.

But the plain and simple truth is I truly believed that this edition of the Blazers was set for a run vaguely reminiscent of the 77 Title team. They are not expected to contend by most experts but have the talent to play a superior brand of basketball.

The pre-season injury to Nicolas Batum was disappointing as the defense he provides the team is certainly an important element but hardly something the Blazers could not overcome. The return of Martell Webster would provide a major offensive upgrade at the price of a slight decline in defense.

Meanwhile, more minutes would open up for Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez.

Yet five games into the season, Portland has looked...well, let us not mince words. They have looked bad.

Playing competitively but losing home games is what teams with losing records do. The Blazers have done it twice.

The Nugget game in particular hurt because most Blazer fans expect the Blazers to battle the Nuggets for Northwest Division laurels. Losing a home game to your chief rival, particularly a home game you thought you should win, is just the sort of thing that comes back to haunt you late in the season.

So what exactly is happening here? Unfortunately, I have been out of town since the Nugget game, so primarily what I have has been anecdotal evidence. But those anecdotes have been telling.

Following the games on my mobile phone with the auto-refresh set for every 15 seconds has been brutal. The Blazers would close to within a bucket, it would refresh, they would be down six points. I would look at the last couple plays, and all too often, the plays were opponents dunking. And dunking again. Then, for something different, getting an offensive rebound and dunking.

Yet opponents are only shooting .429% against the Blazers. So for the game, their defense is adequate, it is only when the game matters that they go into matador mode and let the opponents have a layup drill.

Compounding the problem, the Blazers themselves are shooting a very mediocre .422%. They are winning the rebound and 3-point shooting percentage battles and losing the turnover game by just .6 turnovers per game.

Thus the statistical story tells us that seven hundredths of a percent in shooting is not going to kill Portland in the long run as better three point shooting and four extra rebounds should cover that in the long run.

What they really need to do is find the killer instinct to put teams away. Portland has been outscored 137-121 in the fourth quarter, more than offsetting their 112-103 third quarter advantage. They are losing the second half by over a point a game.

This is troubling since the Blazer bench is supposed to be a major strength. With guys like Andre Miller, Fernandez, and Outlaw the bench looked like a potent weapon capable of having three guys in double figures nearly every night.

Yet if the bench was producing, the starters and closers would not be so worn down that they give back huge leads. Based on minutes, they should not be worn down anyway as only Aldridge and Roy are playing over 30 minutes a game and Aldridge is only playing about 31 minutes a game.

Worse, the players are showing signs of pressure in close games. Against Denver the Blazers bricked five free throws that would have either tied the game or given Portland the lead in the closing minutes. It was a team effort with Roy, Aldridge, Miller, and Oden all contributing to the key misses.

The team has been searching for answers. The local Portland paper referenced a Roy interview where he discussed the malleability of the rotation which indicates a certain lack of cohesion. This would point to a strength actually being a problem.

Let me say in advance that I think Nate McMillan is an excellent coach and will get that problem sorted out. Yet I would be remiss in not saying that one thing the Blazers certainly need is for him to settle on roles for each player and more or less stick to them which will go a long way towards clearing up rotation questions.

In High Above Courtside: The Lost Memoirs of Johnny Most, the late Most was quite clear on what he believed caused the collapse of the Celtics in the late seventies. For Most, it was not lack of talent but rather too much talent where players refused to accept roles and the coach therefore lost control of the rotations. As players began struggling to find roles, Jo-Jo White lost the team, the record went south, he ended up fired and the players ended up in other uniforms.

That is a very real danger for this Blazer team. Just take a look at some of the potential conflicts:

Brandon Roy. He just signed a max deal and may feel pressure to prove his worth. Yet his style of play demands to dominate the ball, which is more difficult because;

Andre Miller. A near All-Star starter his whole career, a pace-pushing, penetrating point guard, he now has to interact with Roy, who is playing the role Miller is used to, in a slow-down offense that is at or near the bottom of the NBA in pace, all while backing up;

Steve Blake. An underrated distributor who never dazzles anybody with his numbers, but relies on hitting the open trey off penetration by players like Roy. His suspect defense, nick-named Blake-fense, and lack of ability to penetrate the lane causes problems for the Blazer big men.

Meanwhile, Rudy Fernandez wants to expand his game. He wants more minutes. He wants to dominate the ball a bit more. Unfortunately, he is backing up Roy, who leads the team at over 38 minutes per game. Furthermore, whether Fernandez is paired with Roy or Miller, that player is going to have the ball in their hands far more often than Fernandez.

Travis Outlaw wants to get paid. He wants to start. However, on this team, his game does not mesh well with the starters which means Portland needs him to come off the bench, play energetic defense, create his own shot, and be a dominating sixth man...a role Outlaw is adept at but rumored to resent. This is a contract year for Trout, and he wants to use it for that big-money deal. Can he get minutes?

LaMarcus Aldridge, like Roy, is coming off signing a huge deal that will keep him in Rip City for several years. He wants to show he is worth it. He is on record as wanting to be an All-Star. He is also on record as being confused about when to go down on the blocks and when to defer to Greg Oden. Thus he sometimes gets lost on offense and, instead of improving his numbers from last year, has seen his scoring dip noticeably while his fouls have increased.

Greg Oden, meanwhile, wants to start. He wants to erase the memories of an injury plagued college career, a missed rookie season, and a much-maligned actual rookie season. He wants to score. He wants to prove he is worthy of a number one pick. But he is at best a third option, and probably more like a fourth option among Blazer starters behind Roy, Aldridge, and Martell Webster. Being a fourth option does not jibe well with wanting to show he is a worthy number one.

Which brings us to Webster. He wants to show he is back and better than ever after missing all but six minutes of last season. Yet he alone has shown he is willing to do what it takes to make the team work. Start, come off the bench, concentrate on defense, shoot the three, drive to the rack...it can be argued he has been one of the most effective all-around players the Blazers have so far this season. Yet he knows that McMillan is on record as saying Batum will be the starter when he returns. How will that sit with Webster? He needs to show enough now to get minutes later.

Thus we clearly see it is possible the Blazers are playing with a bunch of personal agendas at the cost of team chemistry, cohesion and effectiveness.

It is still very early in the season. It is way to early to hit the panic button. This is a team capable of getting hot, going on a run akin to the Rocket 20+ win streak of a couple seasons ago, seizing the Northwest Division in a death grip and not letting go.

It is also a team capable of degenerating into a mix of players trying to get theirs, chasing personal agendas and regressing to a .500 team.

It is instructive to note where they sit right now. Tonight I was idly watching some Hornets-Mavericks action and every so often a score would catch my eye. The Celtics were losing to the Timberwolves by six late in the third or early in the fourth. The Lakers were losing to the Rockets by a few points.

I pretty much laughed when the commentators talked about the Celtics being in danger of losing their perfect record in the game, or about how the Rockets were handling the challenge. The thing about Championship contenders is you just have a feeling they will pull out those close games, particularly about inferior teams.

This again is no knock on either the Rockets or T-Wolves. The Rockets play as hard as any team in the league and Rick Adelmen should get Coach of the Year consideration if they continue to play this well. And the Wolves are building something promising.

But neither team should be confused with a Championship quality team, and any time the Celtics or Lakers lose to either of those teams, regardless of what floor it is played on, it is an upset.

THAT is the level the Blazers are aspiring to get to. As it stands now, they are definitely not there. In fact, they are so far from there, I am ready to contradict myself.

One of my brothers asked me if the Blazers were favored against the Nuggets prior to the Blazer home game last Tuesday. I said they were ALWAYS favored at home, regardless of the opponent, that they would lose a couple games over the course of the season, but any home game should favor the Blazers.

I take it back. As it sits, I think it would be a mild upset if they beat the Spurs tomorrow. Far from being the level they need to be, the Blazers have regressed that far, that fast.

Fortunately, one great thing about being a fan instead of a player or coach is that hope springs eternal. I can sit here and believe that Roy will say the right words, McMillan will find the right rotation, the players will find cohesion, and the early season struggles will end tomorrow as they take on the Spurs.

That is the best part about the NBA. Knowing what I know, I can still believe that.

Oh, and for the record...yeah, the Lakers and Celtics both won. Sometimes I hate it when I am right.

Do the Blazers need to bring in outside players?

When last season started, I was considered unreasonably optimistic. Respected sites  with good reputations pointed out that the jump from 41 wins to 50 wins was much more difficult than the jump to 41 wins had been, yet I confidently predicted a 53 win season which was itself exceeded by their 54 wins.

Looking at next season, I feel confident that 60 wins is not only reachable, it is on the low end of what we can expect to see from this young, talented, exciting Blazers team. Even now, most of the same sites are saying holding steady at 54 wins will be difficult enough but a couple of wins more might be attainable if the Blazers make no new acquisitions.

That is flawed thinking. The Blazers did have flaws last year, and the Rockets exposed two of those in their upset of Portland in the first round.

First and foremost, the Blazers did not display the defensive reputation or intensity they needed to. The Rockets had the reputation and were very intense and as a result were allowed to hack, clutch, grab, push, and shove their way to a marked advantage. 

Secondly, the Blazers starting line-up had only two primary scorers and one secondary scorer. Neither Joel Przybilla or Nicolas Batum was any scoring threat at all. As a result, when Blake missed shots he normally made, it allowed the Rockets to focus even more attention on Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge which limited their effectiveness. 

This off-season is an opportunity for the Blazers to correct both of those short-comings, and they do not need any other players to do that. Before I go further into this analysis, I should point out a couple of things.

First, one reason I really, really love this edition of the Blazers has to do with the make-up of the team. Both Roy and Aldridge have been Blazers since draft day. So have Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Travis Outlaw, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless and Martell Webster. Though neither Joel Przybilla or Steve Blake started as Blazers, they both made a conscious choice to come here when the team had a poor record and have spent enough time here that they "feel" like they  have been career Blazers.

Second, one of the joys for me of watching a team is watching the development. I remember well watching Clyde Drexler, Jerome Kersey, Terry Porter, and Kevin Duckworth go from (other than Drexler) essentially unknowns into a team that twice in three years got to the NBA Finals. Now, in contradiction to this post, that was in no small part rue to the import of Buck Williams, but I will address that shortly.

The first and most dangerous short-coming was the defensive intensity. My bias is clear, so it is obvious that in that series with the Rockets it was very, very frustrating to watch Luis Scola body-slamming Aldridge at one end without getting called for a foul, then watch Oden get called for a touch-foul outside the free throw line at the other end. It was even more frustrating to watch Ron Artest hand-check, clutch, grab, and shove Roy all over the court and never get called while Blake was getting called for doing much less in trying to contain Aaron Brooks.

And topping that off was watching Yao Ming hack anybody in sight, yet the call go against the defender. Again and again Przybilla or Oden would get to the defensive spot first, Ming would come down, give them a full-out two-hand shove, and when they tried to get back in position the referees would whistle a foul on the Blazer big men.

It was not fair officiating, it had a huge impact on the outcome of the series, and it illustrates the first thing the Blazers need to do. Th Rockets got away with fouling as defense because they have the reputation of doing that. So the Blazers need to get that reputation.

In every game they need to come out over-aggressive. They need to learn to push and shove, to clutch and grab and foul until the referees decide "that is how they play defense" and stop calling it on Portland, just as they have done for the Rockets, for Bruce Bowen, for Dahntay Jones, and so forth.

By establishing a reputation as "rugged, physical defenders" they will begin to get calls that are more in line with what other teams get. 

That is a horrible thing to say because it is not good basketball. If I want to watch men clutch and grab and push and shove each other, I will go watch wrestling. One reason to love basketball is for the athletic  prowess they display. Their agility, leaping ability, and speed are far more entertaining that watching people foul each other and see who gets the calls. But if you aren't going to be allowed to play a skilled game, then go with what you have to do. So foul early, foul often and start getting the "respect" you deserve.

The Blazers already have a few players that would benefit mightily from this new attitude and at least two of them would cover one of the biggest deficiencies they faced last year.

First, Jerryd Bayless. He has a reputation as a "defensive bulldog" who plays tough, in-your-face defense. He got called for a lot of touch-fouls last year which limited his effectiveness but if he were allowed the same leeway that Artest, for example, received then he would be able to more than adequately defend the Aaron Brooks type point guard that was an Achilles Heel all year for the Blazers. He has the speed, agility, and mind-set to be a top perimeter defender.

Nicolas Batum would be another. He was already the best perimeter defender the Blazers had. He did an excellent job on even Chris Paul and Dwayne Wade while still matching up with small forward like Carmelo Anthony. He would only get better if instead of using his feet and skill to defend he just started hacking and grabbing anybody who beat him but not getting called for fouls. 

Inside, Greg Oden would be even more effective if he got time on the court instead of the bench. There is no doubt he commits fouls. Well, let me rephrase that. According to THE RULES there is no doubt he commits fouls. But if he were called the same way Ming or Shaquille O'Neal were officiated, he would be a defensive menace and far more effective offensively as icing on the cake.

If Portland had players such as Bayless and Batum to anchor the perimeter and Oden and Aldridge to anchor the interior, they would quickly become one of the very best defensive teams in all of basketball. That is by using the same players they now possess.

The second issue can also be addressed with the same players they now have. Lets start with perimeter scoring.

Going into last season, Martell Webster was the starting small forward. He was coming off a third straight season of improvement and had upped his scoring average to 10.7 per game. More importantly, he had watched James Jones for a year and was learning things he could do to make himself more integral to the Blazers offense. More often would he ball fake from his corner post and drive into the lane. It created a whole extra element to the Blazers offense. Had he played last season, it is not unreasonable that he could have added 2 - 5 points to his average and provided that third reliable scorer somewhere in the middle teens.

A Blazer squad with Roy scoring 22, Aldridge 18, Blake 11, and Webster 13 points looks a lot different than that same line-up where Batum and 6 points replace Webster and 13. Too often this season Batum passed up wide open shots and was such a non-factor in the offense that it allowed teams to sag off him and double-team Aldridge or Roy.

That is one reason Coach Nate McMillan tried starting Rudy Fernandez late in the Rockets series. However, it fouled up all the rotations and reduced the once-formidable scoring punch of his bench without providing a commensurate spike in their defensive ability. 

This season, with the return of Webster, he will have the ability to provide that scoring punch in the starting line-up. Either Webster will start or, should they choose to keep Batum in that role, the pressure of having Webster and Outlaw behind him will force Batum to look for his shot more aggressively. When the small forward position is scoring, the Blazers are a much more potent offensive team.

All of which leads to the most important point. The Blazers will be much improved this year due to natural development and they have an excellent roster to ensure that. Let me explain.

Larry Bird has often been quoted (included in his autobiography Drive:The Story of My Life) as saying players such as Greg Kite were instrumental to the Celtics Championships. Now, those of you who recall those Celtic teams may recall that Kite saw little to no playing time. Those years saw guys like Kevin McHale, Robert Parrish, Dennis Johnson, Austin Carr and so forth take the bulk of the playing time.

But right behind them were talented players who pushed the starters to continue to excel lest they lose their spot on the floor. Now look at the Blazers.

Joel Przybilla will never be an offensive force but he is certainly a stalwart defender and rebounder. Greg Oden wants that position. Those two will push each other hard and the result can only be that both players will improve.

Additionally, Oden should now be almost completely recovered from micro fracture surgery. With all his prodigious speed and agility, he will be much improved from last year and thus create yet one more issue for opposing coaches when game-planning for the Blazers.

Aldridge continues to improve. The last month or so of the season saw the light click on for him defensively. There were stretches where he controlled games defensively and other times he dominated offensively. Look for those stretches to become more frequent and for him to be an All-Star very soon. His improvement alone should be worth a couple extra games for the Blazers.

It is Small Forward where we might see the greatest improvement. Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum and Travis Outlaw will battle for the starting role. I believe Webster is the odds-on favorite to win it, but regardless of which player comes out on top, the battle will force all to improve.  

The triumvirate of players gives Portland tremendous flexibility. They can go Batum for defense, Webster for long-distance shooting, or Outlaw for someone who can create his own shot at will. And should Batum develop an offensive game or Webster a defensive mentality, this position could shift from weakness to strength in a heartbeat.

Shooting Guard is of course the strongest position the Blazers have. Roy continues to improve every year. He knows what needs done and works on that aspect of his game. He knows defense was a weakness last year so should be improved there. 

Behind him is Rudy Fernandez. Rudy will be hard-pressed to improve on his numbers from a year ago and indeed seems the most likely player to slightly regress. Yet even if he should slip a bit, the Blazers know they have options; Bayless and Webster both are comfortable in the role.

Which brings us to Bayless, perhaps the most potentially important improvement for the Blazers this upcoming season.

Last season he got caught up in his own press clippings from Summer League. By his own admission, scoring 30 a game there was the worst thing that could happen to him. This year he is focusing on applying the things he learned last year watching Steve Blake, one of the most under appreciated players the Blazers have.

Blake is not fast, is at best an adequate defender, cannot create his own shot and really doesn't create good looks for other players. He is not flashy and does not score a lot, nor rack up a lot of assists. As a result, many Blazer fans put a lot of the blame for last years playoff collapse on him.

That is not knowledgeable basketball criticism. Blake performs his role very well. He gets the Blazers into the correct offensive set, gets the ball into the hands of the people who should have it, stretches defenses with his normally reliable shooting, and most important, accepts and embraces his role.

This year will be key for Blake. Bayless will push hard for playing time. He is a superior defender who can penetrate the lane seemingly at will. With a year under his belt, he should finish more effectively and, if he sticks to his plan, will be a better distributor this season. That improvement alone will help the entire team and take strain off of several players.

The bench should be a strength again regardless of who ends up there. Lets assume the starting line-up is what many people thought it would be last year: Oden, Aldridge, Webster, Roy and Blake. That is a line-up that can score and rebound. Defense might be a problem.

That would leave a bench of Przybilla, Outlaw, Batum, Fernandez and Bayless.  Depending on how Batum and Bayless develop, they can catch up with massive firepower or hold/extend a lead with a defensive focus. They are very versatile; Outlaw is often best when playing power forward but has also been featured at small forward and spent time as shooting guard. Batum and Fernandez both slide between small forward and shooting guard. Bayless can play either guard position.

This is a team with three primary weaknesses; defensive toughness, experience, and injuries. Natural improvement should handle the scoring issue discussed earlier and teams tend to improve defensively as they grow together. This roster is deep enough to absorb some hits injury-wise, even to key players.

And all of this is without adding a Paul Millsap, Andre Miller or other player. Yes, McMillan wants a "veteran" player, but it could be argued with Przybilla and Blake, they already HAVE the type of players they would be bringing in. Why not stick with an essentially home-grown team that is good enough to start winning championships soon?

The Blazers as they are, with natural improvement, are a talented, versatile team that can score and rebound and, soon, defend. That is a pretty good recipe for success.

What the Blazers need to do in preparation for their first Playoffs

The 18-11 First Place Northwest Division record of the young Trailblazer team has surprised most expert observers, particularly when you consider they had the toughest opening schedule of any team since the early 1980s, including being the first team in history to play their first five games against teams that won 50 or more games the previous season...three of those games on the road.

Blazer fans are delighted. Blazermania has been deemed to have returned, the Rose Garden is selling out every night with rabid, noisy fans, and we have already been treated to several blowouts.

Nor were all the blowouts against soft, weak teams. Portland crushed the Hornets, holding them to just 86 points while dialing up 101 of their own. Beating a quality team like the Hornets by 15 is something not seen around here since the middle part of the Jailblazer era and this time it is being done by great character guys.

They are also being done by a very focused team. Every Blazer knows the goal is not to get into the playoffs but actually win at least one series once there. This is a team with enough talent to do that, but after 29 games there are a few areas that have shown flaws in the Blazer game plan that can be exploited.

It starts on defense. Against the Suns, Blazer fans were screaming, "This just in...Matt Barnes can shoot!" as he rained down open trey after open trey. Against the Kings, Blazer fans were screaming, "This just in... John Salmons can shoot!" as he rained down open three after open three. Against the Nuggets, Blazer fans were screaming, "This just in...Linas Kleiza can shoot!" as he rained down open trey after open trey. Hmm. I think I am noticing a pattern here.

Portland has a bad habit of drifting too far into the lane to help out on post players. The result is they give up numerous wide open looks from downtown. Only five teams are worse at defending the three: Memphis, Minnesota, New Jersey, Golden State and Sacramento. If you are a Blazer fan, don't look at the combined record of those teams...it isn't pretty:New Jersey is .500 and none of the others has won more than nine games.

Last season Portland did an excellent job of staying in front of their man and forcing contested jumpers or treys that at least had a hand in the face. Against Phoenix they did this so seldom that they gave up 66.9% shooting from beyond the arc. If that happens in the playoffs it will be one and done. 

Another key issue is free throw rebounding. Again and again the Blazers give up free extra possessions to the opposition  as they fail to pull down the defensive board after free throws are missed. Inexcusably, this is often after noted poor free throw shooters such as Shaquille O'Neal hoist bricks. Portland has to figure out a way to protect the lane and get those rebounds.

Conversely, on offense the Blazers must find better spacing. Against the Nuggets, Portland often allowed four defenders to converge on Brandon Roy without creating passing lanes for him. They mostly stood static. In the picture above, they show what can happen with movement:Roy rotated the ball to Rudy Fernandez, forcing Linas Kleiza to rotate out on him. When he did so, Steve Blake floated to the corner for an open trey as no Nugget could pin down to the corner to contest it.

If they remember to create spacing with movement when opponents double or triple team Roy, particularly 30 feet from the basket as is becoming commonplace, they will continue to create open looks from deep or create driving lanes for their wings.

It then becomes vital that players like Nicolas Batum, Travis Outlaw, and Martell Webster (when he returns)  move without the ball and then cut towards the basket for dunks until Roy is given space to operate. But it is not just Roy who can create offense.

Portland habitually starts the game by going to LaMarcus Aldridge on the low block two or three times. This is an excellent start to the game. 

Once he has shown success, opponents are forced to double him. With rapid ball movement they can create open jumpers and sometimes dunks when small, quick Blazers flash to the post.

Unfortunately, the Blazers often forget Aldridge. He will provide four, six, eight, maybe 10 points of offense, and then not get another entry pass for two or three quarters. Portland needs to do a better job of identifying and exploiting areas of offense like this one that can create easy buckets. Aldridge should be getting at least 15 shots a game in a mix between post-ups and the nice mid-range jumper he possesses. That will require the Blazers to do a better job of staying with him rather than establishing him and then forgetting he can score.

There is at least one other area of concern that will become more and more important as teams are able to prepare exclusively for the Blazers. For some inexplicable reason, they struggle mightily with inbounding the ball.

One sequence late in the Nugget game illustrates the problem. Earlier in the game Nene picked off a soft inbound pass and broke away for a solo dunk. Late in the game, with every possession key, Portland took a time out. Rudy Fernandez was then forced to call a 20 second time-out as no Blazer got open. Coming off back-to-back timeouts, he then made an entry pass to Brandon Roy, but the pass was tipped, Roy picked up a loose ball foul, and the Nuggets were presented with 2 free throws as the Blazers could not even get the ball inbounds.

This is not an isolated incident. Portland has struggled all season with getting the ball inbounds in key situations. As the season extends and teams get better looks at what the Blazers are doing, this situation will only be exacerbated. If it continues to be an issue in the playoffs, close games will be won and lost on "small" things like this.

Portland simply has to find ways to free up players to receive the inbounds pass. They need to alter the back screens and angles they move to receive the ball or they will find themselves losing close games without even being able to get a shot off.

These things are all fixable. On defense, Portland has the length and agility to cover those open spaces without leaving their big men without help. Rebounding is a matter of timing and effort. Spacing on offense is a matter of awareness and coaching. Inbounding is something that training and creative plays can fix.

It remains for Coach Nate Mcillan to address these issues. Make no mistake about it, McMillan is a superior coach who will find ways to get these issues addressed. It is a matter of time and coaching. The only question is if he has enough time to get the message across to his players this season before the playoffs.

What we learned about the Blazers in their loss to the Celtics

Blazer fans can remember back before the classic late 90s teams of Terry, Clyde, Jerome, Duck, Buck, and Uncle Cliffy when Portland was a "running team" that sometimes wouldn't run. 

They had some nice players and were built largely around Shooting Guard Jim Paxson. Game after game the Blazers tried to win via the fast break. But then something strange would happen. They would be matched up with the Showtime Lakers. 

Each time, the Blazers changed their philosophy. They correctly recognized they could not run with the Lakers. As a result, every time they matched up with Showtime, they changed their philosophy. 

Again and again they tried to turn the games into half-court slug-fests that would theoretically minimize the Laker advantage. Unsurprisingly, it never worked.

Since the Blazers were built around running, that is where their talents lay. They struggled to score in the half-court. Slowing the game down was intended to minimize the number of possessions which, in turn, would minimize the talent gap between the Blazers and Lakers.

The strategy had a serious flaw, however. The Lakers had a good half-court game where Magic could penetrate the lane at will, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was a great post player, and slowing the game down really only meant more shots inside by Jabbar and less shots for the fleet wings of the Lakers in transition. 

By contrast, the Blazers were giving up on the one thing they really did well. The talent gap between the Lakers and Blazers in the half court was larger than it was in the running game. The Blazers effectively defended themselves by taking their greatest strength out of their arsenal before the game even began.

I am sure it is just faulty memory, but it sure seemed like every match-up during those years was an easy Laker win, usually by blow-out.

Why bring up painful memories of losses to the team I despise most in the League?

The answer is simple. I was listening to the Blazer pre-game show. After interviewing Coach Nate McMillan, the radio personalities explained the Blazers game plan was to expend most of the shot clock, keep the score in the 80s, and win that type of game.

They scored 101 against the Hornets. They scored 96 against Detroit.  Those are a couple pretty good defensive teams and Portland won by 15 and 11 points respectively. Now, admittedly, Boston is a better defensive team than either of those, but the point stands. Against the Pistons and Hornets Portland played their best game and saw where they stood. Against Boston they deliberately planned to play Boston with less than their best game plan.

By deliberately taking longer in the shot clock, they made the Celtics defend for less of the shot clock. This just in, Boston is pretty good on defense even without that help.

The result was an ugly 78 point output for Portland. I suppose it is a bright spot that they "only" gave up 93 to Boston...as long as you ignore the "mere" 15 point spread on the scoreboard. 

Against the really good teams in the League, the best chance you have to beat them is to play your best game. When Portland set out to play less than their best game it made the game easier for Boston. Portland is going to get to the point where they don't have to play their best game to beat the top teams in the League, but they are not there yes and probably won't get there this year.

Meanwhile, Boston does not have to play their best game to beat most teams in the League. They are so good and work so well together that they can have half their team "off" on any given night and still pull out the win, particularly at home.

It seemed to me that the mistakes of the past were being repeated as Portland saw a team they were looking up at talent-wise and, instead of playing their best game, tried to play a strategy they were less skilled at in an attempt to beat a better team. It did not work. It will not work next time.

Portland's game has a lot to do with their depth. They go 10 deep in guys who can get them double figures on any given night. If LaMarcus Aldridge is struggling, they go to Channing Frye. If Nicolas Batum is not scoring, they can bring in Travis Outlaw. Rudy Fernandez is often a dynamic scorer who can fill it up from anywhere and in bunches. The beat goes on. 

By playing fewer possessions and effectively shortening the game, the Blazer game plan largely canceled out the depth advantage. Boston is so good that when an opponent helps them that way, a blow-out is a veritable certainty.

The real irony is that Portland is good enough to compete with Boston assuming a few things fall in place: 

1) They get over their psychological fear of Boston. Last year they said they felt "bullied" and intimidated. It showed this year, particularly in the 21-0 Boston run after Portland took a 36-35 lead.

2) They play their own game instead of trying to play styles they are not used to. That means maximizing the things they do well and minimizing they things they do poorly.

3) They play the tough, intense defense they are capable of instead of being intimidated and letting Boston do what it wants.

Overall, it is just one game in the loss column. However, it is one game that shows the difference between playoff-ready, potential Champions like Boston and teams that, at least at this point in the season, is not ready to face the top teams in the League in games of particular importance.

Was the Portland Trailblazers not trading for Shawn Marion a good thing?

In the off season and pre-season, Blazer fans were wildly proposing trades to fill the two biggest problem spots on the Blazer roster. Conventional wisdom held that Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy locked down the Center, Power Forward, and Shooting Guard locations but the Blazers were in big need of help at the Small Forward and Point Guard positions.



One of the most popular names circulating was Shawn Marion. Without bothering to see if it made sense from the Heat point of view, it was assumed Portland could pry him away for essentially the expiring Raef LaFrentz contract and spare change.

For the Blazers, it seemed to make sense. Marion is an excellent wing defender, a great transition scorer, and can drill the three. He would step into the starting line-up, provide them their key defender and some added scoring punch, act as the sinecure "veteran", and fill their second biggest hole.

This would allow Portland to move some combination of Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, Channing Frye, Sergio Rodriguez and/or Steve Blake to pry loose a premier point guard from some other team.

Just 10 or 12 games into the season it is illuminating to see how much the landscape has changed. Nicolas Batum has been a nice surprise, Webster's injury had the rather ironic impact of whetting fans' appetites for his return, and Marion no longer looks quite the prize he once did.

Suddenly Portland fans are starting to realize what they should have known all along. This team is pretty hard to improve on already. The players mesh very well together and fulfill the roles needed on the current roster.

Webster is an above average long-range shooter who is rumored to have improved his defense. He was showing flashes last year of developing into a better than average wing defender and training camp reports this year had that much improved.

Travis Outlaw has taken a small step back offensively but is improving his defense. He can still create his own shot and at times does a nice job on the boards, though he does disappear occasionally as well.

Batum has been a revelation. His on the ball defense is already good and his help defense at times spectacular. He consistently hits the open jumper and three-ball and is good on the boards. His production is excellent for the time he gets but Portland is just too deep even at Small Forward for him to get more time.

Marion is no longer looked at as a huge upgrade by many Blazer fans. That may not be fair. Marion is still more versatile than any of the Blazer 3s is individually. He is also a better defender. However, he is not so far advanced of what we already see our guys doing that there is still an outcry to get him.

It is amazing what a little patience will do and how it changes the outlook of fans. There are still a few voices trying to get rid of Blake at all costs under the mistaken assumption he is not a good enough point guard for this team when in truth he is a great fit. He doesn't need a lot of touches but he is effective when he gets them. He provides the steady veteran leadership that keeps the team from panicking. He strokes the three pretty well. Sure, his defense is shaky, but then again, name 5 teams that are perfectly set up to defend the Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Devin Harris type of point guard.

I saw one comparison of Blake and Laker guard Derek Fisher. They have similar games and often seem like statistical clones. Yet I don't hear a lot of Laker fans yelling for Fisher to be traded, any more than I heard Bulls fans wanting to unload Ron Harper. I would have to say that style of point, the one that doesn't need the ball in their hands but can score when called upon is pretty effective on teams with guys like Brandon Roy, Kobe Bryant or Michael Jordan. Properly built, that is a better choice than a ball-controlling point guard who has to have it in his hands.

So now that the season is starting to shake out, Blazer fans are starting to realize the move for Marion, while it may have been a good one, would ultimately have had too high a price. There is a reason this team is 9-6 and on its way up. That reason has a lot to do with the players Portland would have had to give up or not play if they acquired Marion.

This is certainly no slight on the Matrix. He is a very good player who helps any team he is on. Can you imagine him in Boston with their current crop? It would be a tough fit at first, but with hi versatility, they would be all but unstoppable. But as good as he is, looking back, the landscape has changed so much that at this point, Blazer fans should be ecstatic that trade was never a realistic possibility.

Sometimes the best moves you make are the ones you don't.

Does the Road game against the Kings hold the Key to the Blazers Season?

Sitting at 7-5 is hardly an enviable position. Even worse, after an extended 5 game road trip that ended with a home game on the back end of a back to back, Portland is now back on the road for another back to back. This time both games are on the road, first against Sacramento and then against Phoenix.

In their last road game, Portland turned in a disappointing performance against Golden State and gave up a win they probably should have had, thus effectively canceling out their somewhat surprising win in Orlando a few nights prior.

It also pointed up to the difference between Portland and the teams they are looking up at. The Celtics and Lakers habitually close out the games they are supposed to close out and put them in the W column. Their win totals grow regularly and when they lose it is a bit surprising. You seldom see the top teams of the League lose to the Memphis or Clipper type franchises.

Portland has the talent to be that type of team. What they do not have is the killer instinct. They often go into games and, as Brandon Roy has admitted in interviews, let teams get off to good starts and into great rhythms.

Portland needs to learn how to impose their will on opposing teams. They need more nights like they had against Chicago where they spend the first 5 minutes establishing they are the better team and the next 43 minutes drilling that into the heads of their opponents. They need teams to know going in they will have to scrap and battle for every point and will need to go above and beyond to slow the Blazer offensive attack.

With that in mind, a quick look at the two games ahead is illuminating. Looking at them in reverse, the second game is currently the 2000 pound gorilla. Phoenix is a team the Brandon Roy era Blazers have never defeated. Not in Phoenix. Not in Portland.

Furthermore, in the last couple of games Shaquille O'Neal has wrecked Joel Przybilla, scoring and rebounding seemingly at will. Steve Nash also does a number on Steve Blake while Raja Bell often does an above average job on Roy.

Synergize those things with the back to back, the fact it will be their 7th road game in their last 8 outings, and suddenly you have a game that looks very, very imposing.

On the other hand, Phoenix and most of the Western Conference are looking vulnerable this year. San Antonio and Dallas are below .500. Phoenix has lost 3 home games in 6 tries. Houston is struggling with injuries and integrating Ron Artest into the offense. Utah is waiting for their star point guard to return. Denver made what some took as a panic trade.

As of the moment, at 7-5, Portland is in 6th place in the Western Conference. They are only 3 games away from first place. If they can get on a big run, they could actually be a legitimate, serious threat to make a move towards the 3rd seed or perhaps even the second seed.

But to do that, they will have to win some games such as the Suns game. Phoenix is struggling to adjust to their new mind set and playing style, they have had some mild chirping at Coach Terry Porter in the media, and are not yet the dominating team they will probably be by the end of the year.

More importantly, games against teams like the Kings are games Portland has to win. They need to go into Sacramento and establish their dominance early. The Kings are struggling with injuries and trying to get their young core used to playing together. They have been boosted by some surprisingly good games by John Salmons and other guys have stepped up, keeping them respectable at 5-8.

But they can't stay with Portland. Top to bottom, Portland is a better team. They need to make sure the Kings know that. They need to come out early, put together a nice offensive stretch and show the same defensive intensity they did against Chicago.

Portland is on the cusp of becoming a top-tier team. They are showing that by doing well with a difficult schedule. They are playing the games put in front of them and winning the games they should, Golden State excepted.

Beating the Kings is the next step. The Blazers need to win a conference game against a below average team. Furthermore, they need to do it in convincing fashion. Then they can take the momentum of their last two performances into Phoenix and maybe win that game.

At this point it is all about attitude. The Blazers need to develop the same attitude the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, and Pistons have; every game belongs to them and is theirs to lose. They have to believe going in that they are the better team. They need to know that on nights they play their game they will like the scoreboard results.

It all starts with winning the games you should win. The Kings game is one they should win. Going 3 games over .500 would be huge. After Phoenix they have a nice break in the schedule with 3 home games against Sacramento, Miami, and New Orleans. Winning against the Kings would be a nice confidence boost going into the Suns game and give Portland their best chance to win what is surprisingly a winnable game.

Assuming the Suns win at home, that still leaves Portland 4 of their next 5 games that should be wins. If they can be sitting at 11-6 when they take off on the subsequent 5 game road trip, they will be well set up for the rest of the season. They will know they can win at home and on the road. They will have beaten the good teams and the bad teams. They will know they can establish their will and show teams it will be an uphill battle all night.

Conversely, if they lose to the Kings it will make the Phoenix game exponentially more difficult to win. Having a 2 game losing streak might sap some player confidence. Their next game with a quality team is against the Hornets on get-away day. Suddenly that becomes a trap game.

Should Portland stumble against the Hornets, that 5 game trip gets even tougher. Knowing you will face Detroit, Boston and Toronto on the road can turn games like the New York and Washington games into desperation moments. Suddenly instead of a nice record, Portland might be looking at being around .500.

That is what is at stake against the Kings. Does a win against them guarantee a sweep of the home stand and good road trip? Of course not, any more than a loss guarantees future troubles. It does, however, speak to the identity the team develops as far as showing they are a force to be reckoned with.

The NBA players know which teams are good and which ones aren't. The confidence level of teams going in to games with Boston is generally not high whether the games are home or away. Portland needs to start developing that same reputation; the team you know will probably beat you. It starts with a win in Sacramento.

Blazers, Warriors, and Bulls; Runs are the difference

When Golden State ran out to an early lead and my wife got worried, I replied, "If there is one team in the lead you don't worry about when they get an early lead, it is New York. But if there are two, the second one is Golden State. They will give it all back. We might not win, but we won't get blown out."

There are also teams you definitely do not want to let get out to early double digit leads because they won't let you down. That would be teams like the Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs. In between those extremes are the rest of the league, teams that some nights will give up early leads and other nights will extend them.

To this point, Portland in the last season and a half has tended more towards the former; they gave up a huge lead against Philadelphia early last year that threatened to derail their season. Conversely, they also came back after seeing other teams run out early on.

Against Golden State, both teams had some nice runs but nothing the opposition could not recover from. Ultimately in a hard-fought contest, the Warriors made more plays down the stretch.

Against Chicago, Portland wanted and needed to show they were going to get an early lead and not going to give it up.

It was obvious early the Bulls were not going to get back in this game. When they pulled within about twenty, Coach Nate McMillan took a time-out and instantly the lead ballooned back past the thirty point mark. It is things like that which mattered in this game. Well, those and the Bulls basically quitting.

At one point some Bull made what vaguely appeared to make an entry pass. It would have been more effective if Joakim Noah either A) established position or B) did not have his back to the passer.

Since Noah never saw the pass, there was a defender between passer and intended recipient, and Noah was completely over matched, there was no surprise when the ball rocketed out of bounds untouched. The Blazers ran up court. The Bulls stood there glaring at each other, yipping about whose fault it was.

The Bulls are a team in disarray. At least, they were on this night. They don't play as a team, they don't maximize the talents of their players and don't mask their holes. As a result, when things went poorly early, they never looked like any threat at all.

In many ways, this was a forgettable game. Portland shot out to a 16-3 lead with the Bulls points coming on I believe a Defensive 3 second call and a bad turnover that led to a break-away. In fact, 4 of the first 7 Bulls points came that way.

But Portland did not panic. They continued to play stifling defense, pound the ball inside, rebound, and demonstrate this is a new era in Blazers history. For a couple of years now, the Blazers have been capable of building respectable leads but have not been able to maintain or extend those leads. That is no longer true.

The starters built the lead, the reserves extended it. At one point the Blazer line-up had Greg Oden, Channing Frye, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez on the floor. That is a line-up that could go .500 for the season and has potential All-Stars some day in Oden, Outlaw and Fernandez. And they are all second-unit.

Sure, at some point Oden will probably return to the starting line-up. Sure, Outlaw has not looked his best yet this season. But if you put this line-up on the floor night in and night out to start games, they will put up numbers and win games. They can score inside with Oden, Outlaw, and Fernandez. They can score from deep with any of them but Oden. Rodriguez and Fernandez are above average at getting into the lane and Outlaw is no slouch.

AND THIS WAS THE SECOND UNIT.

That is one reason that, although before the season started I actually predicted their record at this point in the season to be 7-5, I am actually a bit disappointed. Sure, the schedule has been brutal to a historical degree, and will continue to be so for a little while, but Portland has the talent to beat any team on any night and should win far more than they lose.

Their starting line-up is well-suited to contend with any team. They can score from inside or out, they have good wing and interior defenders, and they have strong leadership in Brandon Roy and Coach Nate McMillan.

That has led to the development we have seen. Last season they won a few games nobody believed they could but even at their best, every game was a battle. This year they have the potential to have a few blow-out wins. Certainly there is no night where they should not at least have a chance to win.

It is great as a Blazer fan to see that progression. It is exciting knowing that the Blazers have road games they should expect to win. This weekend is a good example. Friday the Blazers visit Sacramento and then Saturday they are in Phoenix.

Last season, that meant they could win against the Kings but would most likely get rolled by the Suns. This year, it means they SHOULD win against the Kings and have a pretty good chance against Phoenix, though ultimately they may not yet be ready to get that gorilla off their back.

Ultimately, if the NBA is a game of runs as is often asserted, the team that does the best job of withstanding the opponent's runs while maximizing their own will have the best long-term success. Based on the Warriors and Bulls games, the Blazers look to have lots of it in the near future.

Rudy Fernandez: The Blazers bench is the difference

Last year tight games meant Portland looked at two things; Brandon Roy showing his other-wordly ability to penetrate virtually any defense or Travis Outlaw going unconscious and hitting everything in sight. With just two options, Portland often struggled to score. 

They were as successful as they were because Roy is so good. He could be the entire pre-game highlight reel package himself with his clutch shots, incredible drives, and sometimes stifling on-the-ball defense. 

They would have won another 5 or 6 games easily if they had had better fourth quarter options. Against the truly great defensive teams they simply could not score down the stretch. A team such as San Antonio would throw Bruce Bowen on Roy while they doubled up on Outlaw and forced Portland to scramble for hurried, contested shots. Same with Phoenix where Raja Bell would take away one option, double teaming would take away Outlaw, and Portland simply was not ready to deal.

Enter Rudy Fernandez. Everyone already knows he is clutch based on his Olympic exploits as well as his entire body of work in the Spanish League. Now they know it in the NBA. 

This is a man with ice in his veins. But it is not just his calmness...he gives Portland a third guy who can create a shot in a must-score situation. He can score on drives, he can score on threes, he is money at the line, and he is most definitely not afraid to take a key shot.

Case in point; Miami trailed 96-88 after Roy hit a jumper over Dwayne Wade with 3:37 to go. But then Portland started acting as if the game was over. They took their time, getting bad shots when they got any shot at all. Wade hit a pair of free throws. He hit a jumper. Now it was a 4 point game and it looked like Portland might give this one back.

Fernandez took the ball, curled into the foul line, spun, and with a hand in his face hit a tough jumper. Boom, suddenly Portland had their confidence back. Had he missed that, the thunderous Wade dunk over the Matador defense of Outlaw on the ensuing possession might have broken Portland's spirit. Instead they ran their offense, Roy found Steve Blake in the corner for a wide-open three and the game was over, even with a few ticks left on the clock.

Scoring is one thing. 10 Blazers scored in the game, including 4 in double figures. But there are times when scoring is tough, when it takes a certain mind-set to be able to create and make that shot. Dwayne Wade has that and it showed when Miami won their Title in 2006. LeBron James has it and that is why the Cavaliers made the Finals. Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce have it, and we all know the Celtics and Lakers are the favorites to be in the Finals again.

Now Portland has 3 guys who have that. Who do you defend in the fourth quarter of a close game? Want to stick your lock-down defender on Roy and your second best on outlaw? Okay, let me introduce you to Fernandez. And mix and match those names...pure poison. I would hate to be the coach trying to stop them.

All of which brings me to the main point. Portland is rightfully mentioned as one of the deepest teams in the League. They have 11 guys who either have proven in the past they are contributors or have shown it this year. But unlike some years, among that depth is a world of scoring.

Guys like Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, Channing Frye, Greg Oden, and Sergio Rodriguez are all nice to have. On any given night, any one of those can drop 20 points on opponents.

But it is the LaMarcus Aldridge, Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw group that really is the heart and soul of the team. They can drop 30 on you game after game for a week when they are going good. 

Lots of teams can roll out 7 or 8 guys who can roll for 20+ points  on a given night. But very few teams have more than one who can do it consistently over a several game stretch. That is one thing that makes Portland so scary and not just this year. They are a team that may no longer be "on the rise" but already risen.

When the early season schedule was released, they looked like a team that could easily start 1-5.  Instead they ran .500 and built a lot of confidence. They then went on the road and knocked off a very good Orlando team. 

Following that up, they went in and beat a Miami team riding a red-hot Dwayne Wade, a talented Rookie in Michael Beasley, and some solid players who can play off them. The game showed the difference between a team like Portland and one like Miami. 

There is a reason Miami is 4-4. At crunch time, Portland was able to throw out multiple scorers. More to the point, they were not afraid to put a Rookie on the court in crunch time because he is a Rookie who delivers. Miami, on the other hand, left Michael Beasley on the bench for the final 4:16  in favor of Chris Quinn. Beasley was the second leading scorer for the Heat with 14.

Meanwhile, Portland had Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw, Blake and Aldridge; only Blake failed to achieve double digits. More to the point, Outlaw and Fernandez are bench players who are good enough that Nate McMillan has confidence enough to put them in the game in a clutch situation and is not upset when Fernandez takes key shots. 

This is not a knock on Beasley who certainly looks like he will be an excellent pro and may even win Rookie of the Year. But the fact that Portland will start a Rookie (Nicolas Batum) and finish the game with another speaks volumes about how dangerous this team will be for years to come. They don't need big minutes from their starters, and that will matter at the end of the year.

How is that important?

Portland bench: 104.25 minutes, 47 points, 16 rebounds, and some clutch shots.

Miami Bench: 88.50,  26 points, 14 rebounds, no clutch shots. Portland was able to keep Roy slightly  fresher than Wade for the end of the game and that led to their win.

There are a lot of factors that go into winning. Portland is showing they have those, game after game. They are also showing improvement. Instead of losing leads late, they are closing strong; 31-21 in the 4th quarter against Miami, 34-26 against Orlando, against Minnesota was 28-23 (and 54-46 for the second half).

When teams have the talent to start fast, a bench that can bring them back when needed or extend leads at other times, and learns to close out games, they are going to sport a gaudy record in the long run. Look out world, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, and the Portland Trailblazers are here and are going to win more games than most teams this year. 

So start the chant now. Rudy! Ruudy! Ruuudy! Ruuuudy! Rrrrruuuuuuuuudddddddyyyyyyyy!

Forget the "Need for a veteran", Brandon Roy leads the Portland Trailblazers

It sounds like the set-up line for a bad joke: "What do you call a road game against East Division contenders the Orlando Magic?"

Answer: A relief.

After facing 5 teams that all won at least 54 games in the first 6 trips out, Portland was looking for a break. Instead what they got was a 5 game Eastern swing that started at the home of the 4-2 Magic. Without Greg Oden to help slow down Dwight "Superman" Howard, this would be a tough nut to crack for a veteran, Championship level team, much less for a team often labeled, even by their most ardent supporters, as a "soft, young team that needs veteran leadership and experience."

Enough already. Let's put a few myths to rest. Over and over we hear Portland needs "a veteran" to turn them into some sort of super team that will achieve greatness, string together championships, and be a dynasty the likes of which the League has seldom seen. I call shenanigans.

Brandon Roy is in his third year. He already IS that veteran. He is the guy who, after Rookie of the Year and All-Star campaigns in his first two outings, already has the experience to be a veteran and has repeatedly demonstrated he IS the leader of this team, the guide to what Portland needs to do to win.

It would be easy to point to his 2 last-second shots against Houston or his late-game heroics against Minnesota and think that is what I am talking about it. I would be lying if that wasn't part of it, but mistaken if that were the only part. After all, Travis Outlaw has made more than a few late-game big buckets for the team and I don't consider him a team leader. He is a very valuable part of the team, but he is not the leader.

It is Roy who tells this team where they need to go. He identifies what needs done, how it needs done, and then does what he can to make sure that happens. Coming into the season, for example, he identified which teams he had poor records against and looked at why.

When Portland beat San Antonio, it marked the first time in his career the Blazers had a win against the Spurs. When asked how it felt, Roy spent less than a sentence enjoying it before pointing out the next game, in Phoenix, was another team he had not beaten and how it was time to end that streak.

Unfortunately Portland fell short in that game but the lesson is clear. Roy has an understanding of what Portland needs to do to take the next step(s). And after beating the Rockets and Timberwolves, his focus never wavered.

Actually, back it up a little bit. At half-time of the Minnesota game, only a 5-0 flurry in the closing couple of possessions got Portland within 6. They looked awful for the entire first half. Roy was credited for yelling at his guys, telling them to focus, buckle down and play their game.

After the improbable come-back win he was interviewed. Still dripping with sweat from his labors, he had already moved past the game that had been completed less than 5 minutes previously.

He quickly identified the next Blazers' need; going on the road and getting their first road win. He did not make excuses for their 0-3 road start. He easily could have said something along the lines of, "Well, our road games so far have been against the Lakers, who were the Western Conference Champions, against the Suns who almost made the Western Conference Finals, and against the Jazz who lose maybe 2 home games per decade."

He didn't. He said something along the lines of, "We let a couple get away. We need to focus on getting the first win on the road."

That is the leadership that turns good teams into great ones. Obviously Portland is not there yet. The point is, they don't need "a veteran" to provide that. Roy already does.

When Aldridge was injured last year, he told them to each pick up a couple extra rebounds and score a couple more points. Portland then won in Utah. He doesn't let them make excuses.

It also doesn't hurt that he can flat-out ball. He has been off his game about all year. His shooting percentage is down, his rebounds are down, his assists not up to normal. And he is still one of the top Shooting Guards in the League. Even with his numbers down he is a stat-packer who impacts every single game.

He makes the team better. He is an extension of Coach Nate McMillan's will on the floor. He lets the team know what they need to do with his words and backs it up with his actions.

Sure, there will be times he misses key shots or lets winnable games get away. But that is part of the NBA. You win some, you lose some. With the right players, you win more.

Last year most prognosticators had Portland winning about 30 games and they won 41. This year I heard a lot of numbers in the mid-40s. Maybe.

Then again, this is a team that had the toughest 6 game opening schedule in history and went .500. This is a team that went on the road and took down a tough Orlando team. This is a team that has inside scoring from LaMarcus Aldridge, clutch outside shooting from Rudy Fernandez, outstanding role players in Joel Przybilla, Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, Steve Blake, Channing Frye, and so forth...and an indomitable leader who knows what they need to do, identifies it for himself and his team, then leads by example.

Whether he is again appointed to the All-Star team or not, whether he is in the conversation for League MVP or not, the fact remains; Portland has their All-Star MVP, their guiding light, their veteran presence, and their leader for the foreseeable future; Brandon Roy.