Brandon Roy: The Kevin Duckworth moment of the current Blazers Generation

Preface: For Portland Trailblazer fans like me the 2009-10 season started with tremendous optimism. Every season we were told to lower our expectations, that the team was too young and inexperienced to make much progress. Yet season after season the team added double digit totals to the win column. They made it to the playoffs last year. They even won a couple games in the playoffs.

But then the season got off to a rugged start. Nicolas Batum went down to injury. No problem, Martell Webster is the better offensive player, and his defense has improved so we all thought it was a minor set-back. Greg Oden moved into the starting line-up and Andre Miller arrived.

Soon we had three new starters in the line-up with Oden, Webster and Miller replacing Joel Przybilla, Batum, and Steve Blake. Nobody doubted it was an overall talent upgrade, but all the new faces and roles had the team struggling.

Ugly home losses to teams like the Grizzlies, where the home team got wrecked by a massive 21-0 run, had us wondering how long it would take for this team to gel. Then, just as they started coming around, players started to go down.

Key 4th quarter performer Travis Outlaw went down. Oden went down. Przybilla went down. Rudy Fernandez went down. LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy both missed games.

Somehow, the Blazers kept chugging along, winning plenty and losing more than we expected in the preseason. Everyone stepped up from time to time. Eventually, a trade was made to bring Marcus Camby to the Blazers for Outlaw and Blake, both shoring up the center position and lightening what would have been a major playing time crunch.

The Blazers closed the season strong, achieving the 6th seed...lower than it would have been if they were healthy, but six slots higher than it should have been. We as fans were pumped, excited, ready to win a series against a team that many NBA fans still believe is soft and therefore exploitable in the Phoenix Suns.

As an aside...the Suns have changed. Beware, whoever faces them in the second round...these are not your Daddys' Suns.

We were ready for this series to start.

Sure enough, even with Roy out for at least the first round of the playoffs, the Blazers came out in game one and played a classic Blazers game. Tough, inspired defense, bit step-up games from second-line players like Batum and Webster, and a will-not-quit attitude. This was the team that over achieved by over a dozen games.

But then something happened. The new Suns attitude reared its ugly head. They came out in game two and kicked the Blazers' teeth in, dominating them in every phase of the game. No problem. I actually had predicted it at work (though to be fair, my exact statement was, "Am I the only one who thinks the Suns are going to blow us out by 20?" If I had said 30, it would have been impressive).

That was not a big deal. The Blazers won their one game in Phoenix. Everything was set up perfect. Portland would win a close-fought game three, lose game four, then take games five and six to score the upset.

Except the Suns did not realize that was the plan. What they did to Portland in game three bordered on felonious assault. They not only kicked in the Blazers teeth, they added a few groin shots as the Blazers lay on the ground wondering what hit them. The Suns came into the Rose Garden and showed everyone the late-season road blow-out wins in Utah and Denver were n flukes, that they are a team that can not only win any time, any place, against any team, they can win those games handily.

The atmosphere leading into game four was somber. The series score might be only two games to one, but Blazer fans were wondering not just if they would not win another game, but if they would avoid getting blown out two more times.

Rewind:
1990: Kevin Duckworth, the Blazers' center, broke his hand in the first round against the Mavericks and was unavailable to the Blazers for Game 7 against the Spurs and their amazing David Robinson. Then, with everyone on the floor warming up, the fans were treated to a surprise and one of the greatest moments for fans...the unexpected entry of Duck.

Just thinking of that moment brings chills. It is the Blazers' version of Walt Frazier for the Knicks.

The Pre-game.
My friend and I get to the game about 25 minutes early, settle into our seats. Their is a subdued atmosphere to the place. It is almost as Blazer fans have been completely demoralized by the back to back spankings the Suns laid on us.

13:00 to game time.
The familiar music hits. The Blazers are about to be shown getting ready to leave their locker room for the playing surface. We casually glance at the Jumbotron as it pans over the Blazers...and suddenly the mood, the atmosphere, everything changes. The panning stops on Brandon Roy. And he is not wearing a suit...he is wearing warm ups.

Really? Can it be? Is there any chance he could...play? No way...no way...not possible...what the...the scoreboard now shows Fernandez on the bench and Roy starting!

The Garden is maybe a third full when they hit the floor for warm-ups, but suddenly the crowd is on its feet, applauding the players...well, okay, applauding the unbelievable, unforeseen entrance of Roy in playing gear.

Now there is energy in the building. Now we know he might play. And if he plays, then we win. Not might win. Not will keep it close. We win.

It is that feeling that defines why Roy is great. If you look at his numbers for the game, they were anything but phenomenal. 10 points on 10 shots is pedestrian. But his presence, that changed everything. It changed the way the game was played.

In a post-game interview, Aldridge was asked what it changed and you could hear the smile in his voice as he said, "He came in the game and I got the first open shot I have had all series."


A lot of Blazer fans have been down on Aldridge because defense like that pictured above has made his numbers minuscule. Personally, I think a lot of the blame goes to guys like Fernandez who have not made themselves available for his passes and/or have not made their shots. If three guys are guarding one, two guys should be open.

Be that as it may, with Roy back in the line-up, Blazer fans had hope. And when he entered the game for the first time, suddenly you just knew it was going to be a real series.



The Suns are still the favorites. They have two games left at home, the Blazers just one. But this was a moment worthy of memory.

I was not there when Duck made his unexpected return, but the impact that moment had on those great Blazer teams of the late 80s and early 90s went far beyond his modest stat-line against the Admiral.

Roy coming back from surgery in eight days to life the spirits and morale of an entire organization and sports town will have the same effect.

Obviously I hope the Blazer pull off the improbable and replicate the '77 run, though I more reasonably expect them to be done long before the finals. But the heart shown by Roy, the mind-set to come out and play...that will be there when this team is healed and whole and holding up the trophy a few times.

Thank you, Mr. Roy, for giving me my own Duckworth moment.

Can half a team defeat the Suns? Check out the Blazers

The Phoenix Suns are prohibitive favorites to defeat the Portland Trailblazers in the first round of the playoffs.

Lets get that off our chest first thing. The players who will be on the floor throughout the series have produced more effectively and more cohesively for the Suns than the Blazers.

In Amar'e Stoudemire and Steve Nash they have the two best players who will appear on the court. In Grant Hill and Jason Richardson they have guys who are above average secondary players that can light up a score sheet.

In Channing Frye, Louis Amundsen, Leandro Barbossa and Jared Dudley they have guys who know their roles and take pride in them.

The bottom line is the Suns record is no accident. They got the three seed on the last day of the season, but they put themselves in a position to get that seed by winning tough, important games in tough situations like Utah on the road when both teams were fighting for high seeding.

Any Blazer fan who looks at this series as anything other than a very probably second consecutive first round exit is delusional.

At the same time, any Blazer fan who does not have at least some hope that the upset is likely enough to induce them to purchase tickets for the playoffs and have a fair amount of optimism they will get to see the Blazers in Game 6 has not been paying attention.

The NBA season is a learning experience. It takes time for players, no matter how talented, to learn to play together. This was evidenced early in the season when a Blazer team that was more talented than last seasons' 54 win edition was struggling, giving up bad losses on their home floor.

20 games in, I had this to say:

Yet 20 games into the season Portland has already lost four home games, including a blow-out loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, has trailed for 11 consecutive quarters, and worse yet, looks like they are a team that does not care. What happened?

Part of the answer was they were struggling to adapt to a different playing style, to a different mix of players on the floor.

Entering the playoffs, that is happening again. The addition of Marcus Camby turned Portland into a better team. The loss of Brandon Roy makes them worse...but presents an opportunity.

Lest anyone misunderstand what comes next, let's get this out there. The Trailblazers with Brandon Roy are vastly better than the Blazers without Brandon Roy.

With that said, arguably the best line-up the Blazers currently possess does not necessarily include Roy. Camby, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster and Andre Miller is a team that can give any team in the NBA fits.

Defensively, they are quick, agile, aggressive, and interchangeable. Camby calls sets, has the agility and willingness to cover everything from a post-up center down to brief periods of at least contesting the small, quick guards. Under his tutelage, Aldridge is showing flashes of being a superior defender who plays off the Camby style and has, with the exception of the shot-blocking, the same set of capabilities, though not at the same level.

Batum and Webster both get up on their man, switch with little to no drop-off, and this season have shown a consistent dedication to defense.

This unit is capable of putting out stretches of defensive coverage that can hold even explosive offensive teams to sub-20 quarters or multiple minute stretches of scorelessness. Nor are they hapless offensively.

Blazer fans regularly label Aldridge as soft because he does not post up as often as they would like. I reject that assessment. He knows his strengths, plays to them, and has been working at his post game, showing improvement from season to season, month to month, and at times game to game.

Last year, I would have said trying to run the offense through him against Stoudemire would be a disaster. This season, he has improved to the point where it is something Portland can do. Aldridge has improved to the point where he commands the double team which opens up Webster and Batum to stretch the defense with their very capable outside shooting.

The problem is, that line-up cannot play 48 minutes. So what are the Suns weaknesses the Blazers can exploit over the course of the game?

Frye, Amundson, Dragic and Dudley. Please note; I have respect for their games. I am a big Channing Frye guy to the point where I encourage you to check out his blog. I want him to tear it up against every team except Portland.

But they are the weak link for the Suns. They do not have a history of producing in the playoffs. (The cynic might point out Hill has as many second round appearances as this Blazer team, but I have too much respect for his game and do not think that is his fault.)

They are exploitable. Dudley and Amundson are not the type of players who dominate a game so much as fill a role. Those roles can be stifled which creates an opportunity for the Blazers to steal a game here and there. When they are going good, they make the Suns great if not unbeatable, but they are less likely to show greatness game after game after game like Stoudemire, Nash, Richardson, Hill and Barbosa.

Of course, the problem for the Blazers is that all the negatives I just pointed out about the Suns point to some pretty important guys for the Blazers; Batum, Webster, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless...

All of which means the Blazer need several things to break right in order to pull off the upset.

Aldridge needs to have the oft-cited "breakout series" where he dials up 25+ points a night, as does Miller. The second tier guys like Batum, Webster, Bayless and Fernandez need to be the players they are in flashes rather than the players they are that keep them fighting for time and recognition.

Webster, Fernandez and Batum in particular are vital. These are three guys who, when hitting their shots, make the Blazers nearly unbeatable when combined with the stifling defense the Blazer line-up referenced above is capable of playing. When they are engaged in the game, hitting their shots, and involved there is no team in the NBA that they are not capable of beating or even blowing out.

That defines the series. Not necessarily the play of Nash, Stoudemire, Richardson, Hill, Aldridge and Miller...but the play of guys like Frye and Fernandez.

If the second tier players of one team are more consistent than the production seen by the other, that decides the series.

As a Blazer fan, I dearly want the upset. I want to see the Blazer defense slow the Suns, guys like Webster to have those scoring explosions we sporadically see, and the Blazers squeeze into the second round.

They have the talent to do it. they have the will.

At the end of the day, whichever team wins this series is the one I want to see in the NBA Finals. I am fully aware it is a long-shot for the Blazers. I am just grateful that they have a team talented enough that, even if it is unlikely, it is at least a remote, remote, remote possibility.

I hope this series goes seven games in a call-back to the classic battles of the Kevin Johnson/Dan Majerle Suns verse the Clyde Drexler/Terry Porter Blazers. I want to see 7 games decided in the final minute with clutch shots from unlikely players. I want to see the upset.

The recipe for the Blazers is simple. Pound the ball inside to Aldridge and play off the double teams to generate open looks which their role players must convert. Dominate the boards, play stifling defense, and hope Nash, Stoudemire, Richardson and Hill forget that is who they are and play like mortals.

Good luck and good health to both teams.

Wake up Blazer fans:The Suns don't matter

The other night during the Blazers' matter of fact destruction of the hapless Memphis Grizzlies, a score flashed up on the scoreboard showing the final score in Jazz-Suns game. Utah won a close game in overtime. The fans went nuts. That was a very dumb reaction. 

The Suns are many things. Under Alvin Gentry they have returned to being one of the most entertaining teams in basketball. Their games generally include several exciting plays, numerous emotional peaks and valleys as both teams put on runs, high scoring, and a few spectacular defensive plays as their frenetic style leads to some very entertaining shot-blocking.

One thing they were not, are not, and will not be is a threat to the Blazers' play-off position. Oh, sure, the Blazers "magic number" deals with how many games Portland must win or Phoenix must lose to guarantee a Blazer playoff entry. So from that standpoint, watching Phoenix lose could be considered a good thing. But it is a mistake.

The Jazz are a different case entirely. Deron Williams is very entertaining to watch. They put up a lot of points, score inside and out, and have some solid defenders. They are also a team that is one-half game behind the Blazers in the race for playoff positioning.

With nine games left to play for the Blazers it might be tough to run down Denver or Houston, the two teams that are a game and a half ahead of the Blazers. Running down either of them would get Portland home court advantage in the first round, something they desperately need in order to advance to the second round. 

Of the two, Houston is the more likely. Denver has the easiest schedule of any of the teams fighting for the two through seven seeds and has shown all year that they are a worthy team. Houston has also shown they can play without Tracy McGrady and is the odds on favorite to retain the fourth playoff seed. That means if Portland stays in the fourth or fifth playoff slot their likely opponent will be either the Nuggets or Rockets.

Portland has struggled against both teams, but it is the Nuggets who seem to have the greater dominance. Thus  it would behoove Portland to stay in the fifth position in order to have the more favorable match up. In order to do that, they must stay ahead of two very talented teams:the Jazz and Hornets.

As a result, whenever Phoenix plays the Jazz or Hornets, the best interests of the Blazers are clear:a Phoenix win. Blazer fans need to wake up and realize their team is not only good enough to make the playoffs, it is good enough to put a good scare into any of the teams they are likely to face and even a first round win, while an upset, would not be on the level of the Mavericks-Warriors series a couple ago. Instead, it would be a minor upset at best.

But to enhance the likelihood of that, they need to worry about improving their playoff seeding, not about merely making the playoffs. Making the playoffs is not enough. They need to win a couple of games.

With that in mind, one thing is clear. As far as Blazers fans are concerned, the Suns don't matter. Finding ways for the Jazz and Hornets to lose games...and if possible, the Rockets and Nuggets as well.

Is it likely Portland will run down either team ahead of them, get home court, and win a playoff series? Nope. But it is certainly more likely than the Suns coming back and knocking the Blazers out. 

Instead of worrying about teams 6-1/2 games behind them in the playoff race, Portland fans need to wake up and realize the real goal. Finding a way to sneak into a home court advantage for the first round. 

Brandon Roy's 52 Leads Blazers to First Win Over Suns in 12 attempts

There is a simple process of determining what shots the Blazers should take. For example, this is a great shot attempt.



Any time he has an opportunity, Greg Oden should feel free to attempt that. It has a pretty good chance of going in. Note a few things; his erstwhile defender, Shaquille O'Neal, is outside the restricted circle having as much impact on the shot as the Ice Cream Vendor in the Alamo Dome. Which, for those keeping score at home, is in San Antonio, Texas, not Portland Oregon.

Second, the help defender A'mare Stoudemire is also spectating. Two other Phoenix defenders can easily see the power of Oden as they are just a few steps away.

In other words, this is a great shot attempt for Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, or any other Blazer to attempt; an uncontested dunk.

Here is their second best shot;



As you can tell, Brandon Roy is off balance, going up on the reverse side of the rim, throwing up an awkward, just been fouled shot that still finds a way to tickle the twine. In truth, though, it doesn't really matter if he made the shot or not. The important thing, as any Blazer fan can tell you, is that any shot taken by Roy is, by definition, a better shot than any shot that is not an uncontested dunk that is attempted by any other Blazer.

Roy has been on fire for the last few games. First he went back to back to back 30+ point games, including a career high 38 point outburst. In the fourth game he was merely great, scoring "only" 29 points...of course, had he not sat out the entire fourth quarter, he probably could have crested the 30 point mark fairly easily.


So on a night when the Phoenix Suns came to town, Roy got ready to kick it up a few degrees.

One of those big scoring games saw the normally reliable, 90% free throw shooter Steve Blake almost single-handed give the game away as he missed four out of five free throw attempts inside the last minute, allowing the Clippers to tie a game Portland had completely in hand and then surprise the Blazers in double overtime.

On this night, it was Roy's chance to ice the game. Leading by 3 with just under 10 seconds left, he stepped to the line for a pair of free throws. He had every excuse to miss; he had played the entire second half, was all over the court defensively, was bringing the ball up the floor, and so forth. He was doing everything.

After the two recent shocking home losses, Portland fans were nervous. If Roy missed the first, everyone would have gotten that "here we go again" feeling, knowing Phoenix would somehow find a way to tie the game and then win in overtime.

The final box score tells you all you need to know. In the picture above, Roy had 50 points. For those who don't follow Portland, his jersey number is 7.




Roy does it all. On a night he poured in the second highest total in Blazers history, scoring more than even Geoff Petrie or Clyde "the Glide" Drexler ever did, he still managed to pick up six assists and five rebounds. Even more impressive, he turned the ball over exactly zero times. None. Nada. Zip.

There were some other fine performances. Travis Outlaw exploded for eight points in 2:23 to close the third quarter, completely changing the momentum of the game. With his drives, jumpers, and variety of scores he kept Phoenix from being able to double and triple team Roy.

LaMarcus Aldridge, facing his nemesis Stoudemire, scored 16 points on just 12 shots. Steve Blake added 22 points, providing a fourth scorer.

But this night, and this season, was all about Roy. He is the unquestioned leader of this team. Coach McMillan is on record as saying he goes to Roy when he needs to find out how the team is feeling. Roy provides that connection. He also identifies what needs to be done.

A couple days ago he was interviewed on the Jim Rome show. He made a point of saying the Blazers are a young talented team, but they need to become a young, TOUGH and talented team. He discussed how that toughness is shown by playing hard-nosed defense night in and night out. He mentioned the length of guys like Oden, Aldridge, and Nicolas Batum and how they needed to keep their feet moving in order to keep their man in front of them.

On this night, when the Blazers gave up 56.9% shooting (and a ridiculous, must be a mis-print 66.7% from beyond the arc), when the game was on the line he made a point of getting in the face of his young charges. Lo and behold, a Blazer team that seemingly could not get back to back stops all night long suddenly went on a mission, outscoring the Suns 9-2 over the last 2:56.

If they can turn on the defense like that when the game is on the line even on a night where they give up 119 for the game, they will make a lot more noise than people currently think they will come playoff time.

And if Roy has to keep putting up 38 or 52 points to get a few votes for the All-Star game, that will be an embarrassment for NBA fans. What "knowledgeable" fan would vote Manu Ginobli and his less than double figures games played ahead of Roy as an All-Star? Pathetic. Shame on you, fans. Get a clue, do the right thing, and put this guy among the top vote-getters.

I think Roy suffers a bit in that regard because he is too fundamental and not flashy enough. I think he had one dunk tonight, and that on a break-away. On the Blazers post-game show on 95.5 The Game, Coach McMillan referred to his game as a "quiet 52". Sadly, I knew what he meant.

At one point, I nudged my wife and said, "He is one point away from his career high." The guy on the other side looked at the scoreboard, gasped, and said, "Feels like he only has about 20." He had 37.

He just is so smooth, he scores within the offense, he doesn't force the action, he keeps his team-mates involved...holy smoke, I think I have a man-crush.

Just kidding.

But I do love his game. Every night he is worth the price of admission. On Tuesday, Portland retired Terry Porter's jersey. Tonight, they retired Brandon Roy's. If he keeps going like this, #7 will be in the rafters in about 10 years. It also will have an excellent shot at the Hall of Fame.

Whether he makes the Hall or not, he will provide Portland fans with some incredible memories in the meantime. Brandon Roy, former Rookie of the Year, last year's NBA All-Star, and this year's Most Improved. Think about it.

Does the Road game against the Kings hold the Key to the Blazers Season?

Sitting at 7-5 is hardly an enviable position. Even worse, after an extended 5 game road trip that ended with a home game on the back end of a back to back, Portland is now back on the road for another back to back. This time both games are on the road, first against Sacramento and then against Phoenix.

In their last road game, Portland turned in a disappointing performance against Golden State and gave up a win they probably should have had, thus effectively canceling out their somewhat surprising win in Orlando a few nights prior.

It also pointed up to the difference between Portland and the teams they are looking up at. The Celtics and Lakers habitually close out the games they are supposed to close out and put them in the W column. Their win totals grow regularly and when they lose it is a bit surprising. You seldom see the top teams of the League lose to the Memphis or Clipper type franchises.

Portland has the talent to be that type of team. What they do not have is the killer instinct. They often go into games and, as Brandon Roy has admitted in interviews, let teams get off to good starts and into great rhythms.

Portland needs to learn how to impose their will on opposing teams. They need more nights like they had against Chicago where they spend the first 5 minutes establishing they are the better team and the next 43 minutes drilling that into the heads of their opponents. They need teams to know going in they will have to scrap and battle for every point and will need to go above and beyond to slow the Blazer offensive attack.

With that in mind, a quick look at the two games ahead is illuminating. Looking at them in reverse, the second game is currently the 2000 pound gorilla. Phoenix is a team the Brandon Roy era Blazers have never defeated. Not in Phoenix. Not in Portland.

Furthermore, in the last couple of games Shaquille O'Neal has wrecked Joel Przybilla, scoring and rebounding seemingly at will. Steve Nash also does a number on Steve Blake while Raja Bell often does an above average job on Roy.

Synergize those things with the back to back, the fact it will be their 7th road game in their last 8 outings, and suddenly you have a game that looks very, very imposing.

On the other hand, Phoenix and most of the Western Conference are looking vulnerable this year. San Antonio and Dallas are below .500. Phoenix has lost 3 home games in 6 tries. Houston is struggling with injuries and integrating Ron Artest into the offense. Utah is waiting for their star point guard to return. Denver made what some took as a panic trade.

As of the moment, at 7-5, Portland is in 6th place in the Western Conference. They are only 3 games away from first place. If they can get on a big run, they could actually be a legitimate, serious threat to make a move towards the 3rd seed or perhaps even the second seed.

But to do that, they will have to win some games such as the Suns game. Phoenix is struggling to adjust to their new mind set and playing style, they have had some mild chirping at Coach Terry Porter in the media, and are not yet the dominating team they will probably be by the end of the year.

More importantly, games against teams like the Kings are games Portland has to win. They need to go into Sacramento and establish their dominance early. The Kings are struggling with injuries and trying to get their young core used to playing together. They have been boosted by some surprisingly good games by John Salmons and other guys have stepped up, keeping them respectable at 5-8.

But they can't stay with Portland. Top to bottom, Portland is a better team. They need to make sure the Kings know that. They need to come out early, put together a nice offensive stretch and show the same defensive intensity they did against Chicago.

Portland is on the cusp of becoming a top-tier team. They are showing that by doing well with a difficult schedule. They are playing the games put in front of them and winning the games they should, Golden State excepted.

Beating the Kings is the next step. The Blazers need to win a conference game against a below average team. Furthermore, they need to do it in convincing fashion. Then they can take the momentum of their last two performances into Phoenix and maybe win that game.

At this point it is all about attitude. The Blazers need to develop the same attitude the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers, and Pistons have; every game belongs to them and is theirs to lose. They have to believe going in that they are the better team. They need to know that on nights they play their game they will like the scoreboard results.

It all starts with winning the games you should win. The Kings game is one they should win. Going 3 games over .500 would be huge. After Phoenix they have a nice break in the schedule with 3 home games against Sacramento, Miami, and New Orleans. Winning against the Kings would be a nice confidence boost going into the Suns game and give Portland their best chance to win what is surprisingly a winnable game.

Assuming the Suns win at home, that still leaves Portland 4 of their next 5 games that should be wins. If they can be sitting at 11-6 when they take off on the subsequent 5 game road trip, they will be well set up for the rest of the season. They will know they can win at home and on the road. They will have beaten the good teams and the bad teams. They will know they can establish their will and show teams it will be an uphill battle all night.

Conversely, if they lose to the Kings it will make the Phoenix game exponentially more difficult to win. Having a 2 game losing streak might sap some player confidence. Their next game with a quality team is against the Hornets on get-away day. Suddenly that becomes a trap game.

Should Portland stumble against the Hornets, that 5 game trip gets even tougher. Knowing you will face Detroit, Boston and Toronto on the road can turn games like the New York and Washington games into desperation moments. Suddenly instead of a nice record, Portland might be looking at being around .500.

That is what is at stake against the Kings. Does a win against them guarantee a sweep of the home stand and good road trip? Of course not, any more than a loss guarantees future troubles. It does, however, speak to the identity the team develops as far as showing they are a force to be reckoned with.

The NBA players know which teams are good and which ones aren't. The confidence level of teams going in to games with Boston is generally not high whether the games are home or away. Portland needs to start developing that same reputation; the team you know will probably beat you. It starts with a win in Sacramento.

Why the Outlaw hate? A Phoenix hangover

Portland played pretty well for half a game in Phoenix. Unfortunately, that half extended from late in the first quarter until early in the third quarter. Before and after those periods, they flat-out got toasted.

Making a mockery of my assertion that Joel "the Vanilla Gorilla" Przybilla plays him better than most, Shaquille O'Neal had a dominating game, missing something like 2 shots all night. As expected, Steve Nash ran wild, Amare Stoudemire scored seemingly at will, Matt Barnes and Raja Bell scored a great deal...well, if you are going to beat the Suns and let Stoudemire, Nash, and the Big Cactus score big numbers you certainly better shut everyone else down completely if you want to win. Letting Barnes hit for 21 is not going to get the job done.

There were some good signs from the game. For one, after getting kicked in the teeth early and getting down by double digits, the Blazers' second unit came back to get them a lead which they then carried into the third quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge had a better offensive game against Stoudemire than he typically does and is showing improved aggressiveness in looking for his shot.

And Nicolas "Boom Boom" Batum is looking more and more like a guy who can be used at crunch time to play defense on scoring point guards, talented wing defenders, and so forth.

On the downside, it was obvious to me even when Portland had a third quarter lead that they would eventually lose. It had to do with the Blazers' radio announcers.

"The Wild One" Mike Rice is a complete and unapologetic homer. Any given Blazer could put a choke-hold on an opponent, drop a couple elbows, kick the guy in the groin, and Rice would think it was clean. Conversely, if there was no opponent over the mid-court line when a Blazer missed a dunk, he would be screaming for the (non-existent) foul to be called.

Brian "Wheels" Wheeler on the other hand is much more even-handed. He leans slightly towards homer-ism without being as over the top as Rice.

Yet in this game, both guys were livid about the officiating, going on about horrific calls (an Aldridge block called a goal-tend, a few hack jobs by the Suns not called while touch fouls were being called on the Blazers, free throws awarded when the Sun was kicking the ball outside) for minutes at a time.

This was while Portland was LEADING. When a young team gets distracted by the officiating...and it was clear from Wheel's call of the game they were...they are eventually going to lose. The only question remaining is by how much.

I suspect the calls were not as egregious as Wheels and Rice made them out to be but when things start going south against a team that is in your head, as the Suns are after their recent dominance of the Blazers, you start looking for reasons to fail. Portland found one in the officials.

Not that the Suns need much help. They remain a top-shelf title contender. At home against a team that needs to click on all cylinders to beat them, the Suns are simply too good to let this game get away.

Ultimately, I figured Portland would come up short and they did.

After the game, I noticed another trend which somewhat stems from the unexpected success of Batum. Many Blazer fans are howling for Travis "Trout" Outlaw to be traded.

This is something I don't understand. Take Outlaw off last year's squad and the Blazers are maybe a 30 win team. Take him off this year's team and they are 6 - 8 games worse at least. He provides the team with so many valuable assets.

As of this moment, Portland has 2 guys who can create their own shot: Brandon Roy and Trout. Roy of course looks to pass first. Outlaw's jab-step fall-away is all but impossible to block and not much easier to even contest. There are times that is a much-needed commodity.

He also provides versatility. He has the length to guard power forwards while still having the quickness and agility to defend small forwards and shooting guards. To be fair, one of the complaints against Outlaw has been his defensive weaknesses. On a team that has given up 50% plus shooting even on a night they won, that is hardly unusual or a fair criticism. He has defensive holes, but who doesn't?

Finally, he provides a very key component. He is a great chemistry guy. He is regularly referred to as the most-liked guy on the team, is credited for building a friendship between Aldridge and Roy, and is able to bring the team together.

So let's look at his positives: good scorer, clutch player, versatility, unstoppable offensive moves, 50%+ from three-point range.

Now let's look at his negatives: He can stop the flow of the offense at times, sometimes has trouble getting to the right spot on defense, and is unsteady as a rebounder.

Why would anyone be in a hurry to get rid of this guy? He is working on a cheap contract, fills several valuable roles that nobody else on the current team can fill, provides a more than serviceable back-up at both forward positions and sometimes the shooting guard...and he can be a game-changer.

Every so often, there will be a game that completely changes direction based on one play or a short period of time involving 2 or 3 key plays. Outlaw has a knack for providing those. Sometimes it is a spectacular blocked shot, at others an adrenaline-boosting highlight reel dunk. He brings intensity to the Rose Garden and the Blazers. Players who can do that are few and far between.

There are some deals out there I would listen to that involve Outlaw. But they are not deals that the other teams would listen to: Outlaw and Sergio Rodriguez for Tayshaun Prince, for example. Good for the Blazers as they would acquire a talented, versatile veteran who can play some lock-down D and is a good team guy. Why would the Pistons do that?

Outlaw, Blake, and Channing Frye for Rudy Gay and Mike Conley. I heard rumors of Portland offering Outlaw straight up for Conley and pretty much laughed them off. Yeah, as if Portland would trade a clutch 4th quarter guy, a player who last year was one of Portland's big three, why would they trade him straight up for a guy who is sliding down the depth-chart of Memphis, a team that will consider it a success if they top 30 wins this year?

Conversely, why would Memphis give up Rudy Gay, perhaps their most talented player and best drawing card? I suspect they would not think of the trade as good for them. I don;t know (or care since it is irrelevant) whether the salary match. I am only demonstrating how much regard I have for Outlaw and what I would want back.

Outlaw did not get worse over the course of the summer. He is not a cancer on the team. He is still a guy who will score double figures, bring energy to the second unit, and help the team win. Saying you would trade him straight up for an inferior player is just non-sensical. Hopefully Blazer fans wake up soon and stop their bleating.

We have a seminal collection of talent on the floor. The only reason to get rid of any of it is to improve the team. Getting rid of Outlaw makes the team noticeably worse in so many ways...so let's not think about it unless we get like value in return. And frankly...that ain't going to happen.

1-1 Portland at 1-1 Phoenix

Coming off the emotional one point home win against the Spurs, the Blazers face another team that has been a tremendous nemesis. Suns games have been an exercise in futility for the Blazers recently. It isn't just that they have lost 9 straight...spanning more than the length of Brandon Roy's career...it is that they have not even completed.

At least games with the Spurs had been close. Phoenix, however, tends to blow Portland out. A lot of it started with Amare Stoudemire.

Early in the season last year he had gotten inside the head of LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge had some extremely ineffectual games as a result and other Blazers shot poorly. Late in the season LA showed some improvement and it seems a match-up he is now ready to face. Of course, it is not the same Phoenix team that Portland will visit.

Interestingly enough, Joel Przybilla seems to do an above average job on Shaquille O'Neal. Despite the fact O'Neals' numbers looked good overall against the Vanilla Gorilla, those numbers were largely skewed by one game where Joel played poorly and O'Neal went off. 

As a general rule, Przybilla makes O'Neal take a lot of shots to get his points and does a nice job on the boards. He does not turn the match-up into a draw by any stretch of the imagination, but he generally at least makes the points coming out of the center into tough ones.

Joel's ability to match up one on one with the Big Cactus allows the other Blazers to stay with their men instead of fading low to double team. Unfortunately, they historically have still been lit up. 

Steve Blake struggles with guards who penetrate. He showed last night against Tony Parker that little factoid has not changed. Steve Nash figures to have a field day against him. The penetration of Nash is what will lead to open shots for Amare Stoudemire, Raja Bell, Grant Hill, and the other Phoenix shooters. 

It does not help that Stoudemire is quicker and stronger than Aldridge. He already scores easily and when that ability is amplified by the break-downs of the Blazer perimeter defenders, Stouedmire figures to have some big, big nights.

The Suns also are switching up their defensive structure under former Blazer great Terry Porter. It remains to be seen how completely they will buy into his system, but so far this season the points they are giving up seem to be down a bit. In Bell they have a superior wing defender, and in Stoudemire and O'Neal they have some serious rebounding potential. 

That makes it imperative for Portland to shoot a good percentage, something they have yet to accomplish this season. Roy looked like he was starting to get his groove back against the Spurs, as was Aldridge. This is a good sign as the Phoenix defenders are similar to the Spurs who matched up with them.

Bell is not as good a defender as Bruce Bowen, so in theory Roy will be able to get some good looks at the basket as well as create some open shots for his teammates. Aldridge will have to figure out ways to keep Stoudemire from poking the ball away as he did so effectively last year, but if LA can do that, he should score the ball well.

Meanwhile, the need to guard Roy and Aldridge should put a lesser defender on Travis Outlaw. This can be good or bad. It is bad if Outlaw falls in love with his jump shot and starts bombing away from the perimeter.

To be sure, Outlaw can be deadly when he is on. His jab step/fall back jumper is incredibly tough even to contest, much less block. Unfortunately, he gets overconfident and goes to that move to often from a little to deep on the floor. 

Conversely, when he penetrates good things tend to happen for Portland. The defense has to scramble which creates some holes for offensive rebounding and often leads to foul problems for the big men. Outlaw has the speed, agility, and quickness to create havoc when he drives.

In a similar way, Rudy Fenandez has the potential off the bench to cause problems for Suns defenders. If he is hitting his shot he will be a nightmare and a difference maker. If not, it could be a long night for Portland.

The other wildcard is Nicolas Boom Boom Batum. He got about 21 minutes at home against the Spurs. However, Coach McMillan has shown a real reluctance to play him on the road. Will that continue or will he get some minutes? If he gets minutes, don't be surprised to see McMillan revert to the ploy from last night of putting Batum on Nash.

While Parker did get past Batum a couple times, the length, instincts, and surprisingly good footwork of Batum did cause Parker more problems than anyone else the Blazers put on him. If Batum can slow Nash, it will give Portland a chance.

Not much of one, though. Phoenix is still a top team in the League, is playing at home, and is facing a team that has yet to show they are anywhere near the road team that they are home team. An average Phoenix effort still beats a good Portland effort.

For Portland to win they need a good shooting percentage, to have at least 3 scorers over 15 and several more close to double figures, they need to limit the Suns breaks and keep Nash from going off with his penetration.

It could happen, I just don't think the Blazers are ready yet. Look for a Phoenix win.