T is for title: The Blazers Season Pre-view

Last season, the Blazers tied with the Nuggets for the best record in the Northwest Division, 54-28. they then gave back all the hard work in the first game of the playoffs, getting rolled up at home by Utah. Once that game was over, they quickly showed they had what it took to win in the playoffs at home and competed in almost every road game, but never broke through and ended their season early and in disappointing fashion.

Yes, a team that most observers last pre-season thought were still a season away from playoff contention found disappointment in exiting in the first round.

They then went out and got significantly better in several ways.

First, they upgraded at their weakest position, point guard. Gone is inconsistent, disgruntled Sergio Rodriguez, replaced by the durable and skilled Andre Miller. Second, gone is erratic good guy Channing Frye and in his place is the steady Juwan Howard.

But it was not just free agents that changed the face of this team. Another year of experience has turned this team from young, hungry and talented into battle-tested, hungry and talented. Aside from that, they are essentially getting two guys back from injury.

The first is Martell Webster. He is an under rated defender and lights out shooter. He could have provided the offensive spark the Blazers sorely needed against the Rockets. While he is not as good defensively as Niclolas Batum, he usually does a creditable job.

Second, they get back from injury a guy who played in 61 games last year. But none of those games were at full strength. It is well known that microfracture surgery slows guys down for nearly a full year after their return, as Kenyon martin, A'mare Stoudemire and others can attest. So welcome back, Greg Oden.

Gone is the hulking mass of muscle that was Oden last year and in its place is a quick, agile guy who moves his feet, has good lateral quickness, has shown explosive leaping ability and excellent timing.

This is a guy who will defend the paint, clean the glass, and has shown some rapid improvement offensively. He turns the center position from above average defensively but non-factor on offense into decent offensively with the potential to be spectacular defensively.

Adding Oden, Webster, Howard and Miller to a roster that earned 54 wins last season shouts potential. This is a team that has everything it needs to win and win now.

The starting line-up looked set until Nicolas Batum went down with a shoulder injury. Fortunately, this team is so deep that his absence until possibly February should not slow this team down at all...and might even help it. The 18 or so minutes he played last year will be taken up by Webster and possibly allow a few more minutes for Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez.

Now the starting line-up will probably see Oden at Center, LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward, Webster at the 3, Brandon Roy at shooting guard and Steve Blake at the point.

This is a team that has great interior defense and suspect perimeter guarding skills. At the other end of the court, with Blake and Webster manning the 3-point line, teams will have to pick their poison. Do they want to double team Aldridge on the block or let him wreck their interior? Oden is a threat to throw down some ferocious dunks off offensive boards.

Alternatively, they can double Aldridge and Oden, only to see Webster and Blake kill them from distance. All of this does not even take into account Roy, the best offensive player the Blazers have.

There is not much of a let-down off the bench, either.

Joel Przybilla is not going to score much, but he will block shots, rebound, and generally provide a physical presence.

Juwan Howard will play in short stretches and provide steady, veteran leadership...if he gets minutes at all. Those might go to Outlaw, who has played very well at the power forward spot. His length and speed make him a match-up nightmare. Not strong enough to bang with starter-quality big men, he is more than capable of taking on second unit players from almost every team in the NBA. Furthermore, he provides the second unit with a guy who can create his own shot at will.

Outlaw will also see minutes at small forward, but will share those with swing-man Rudy Fernandez. Coming off a year where he set the rookie record for 3-pointers, he provides dynamic offense. He kind of reminds me of Vinnie "the Microwave" Johnson from the Bad Boys days. he can light it up in a hurry. when his shot is not falling, he has shown the capability and willingness to drive the lane and put up points there. His defense is somewhat suspect, but he fills the passing lanes very well.

That brings us to Andre Miller. He will start the season coming off the bench. With this line-up, there is some potential for him to do what he does best, which is to run the floor and play an up-tempo game. Fernandez and Outlaw look to benefit from this style of play.

So Portland is stacked. There second team would compete for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and their starting line-up is as good as any in the league.

The only thing that can keep them from doing serious damage in the playoffs is not believing in themselves.

This is not to make light of teams like the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Nuggets. the Spurs have an incredibly potent starting line-up, the Nuggets have the potential to be one of the most explosive offensive juggernauts not named the Suns in the last few years, and the Lakers, coming off a title, only got better with Ron Artest replacing Trevor Ariza.

But the Blazers are actually that good. Yes, I might be looking at them through rose-colored glasses...but I do not think so.

Starting the moment they drafted Brandon Roy and got Aldridge in a draft-day trade, they have gotten better and better. They got to 41 wins quicker than (almost) anyone thought possible. They got to 54 wins when most people thought 47 or 48 wins would be a great year. And now we are hearing a form of the same thing.

"The jump from 21 wins to 32 was one thing, but getting to .500 is a lot harder." was the assessment after 2006-07.

"It is one thing to get to 41 wins, but the jump to 50 wins is a lot harder," was the belief after 07-08.

"Getting to 54 wins is great, but getting to 60 from 54 is a lot harder than getting to 54." is a pretty common pre-view this year.

Maybe. But this team has not only shown steady improvement, they have shown they know what the next step they need to take is.

Roy, time after time last year, in post-game interviews would discuss the next thing the Blazers needed to do rather than gushing about the things the team had accomplished up to that time. And one thing after another fell. They beat San Antonio. He almost single-handed ended the long losing streak to the Suns when he poured in a "quiet 52 points". He was not going to lose to the Suns on that night.

This season, the Blazers will have Roy's drive, the return of improved Oden, the natural progression of Aldridge and Fernandez, the steadying veteran influences of Howard and Miller, and the hunger to take them higher than people believe possible.

This is a team that should finish north of 60. "It is harder to get to 60 than 54". Only if you do not have the talent. This team has the talent to win well over 60 games.

It is a team that has the talent to win any series they encounter in the playoffs. They have seen it now, they know what it takes. They have won in Utah. They have won in San Antonio. They need to get Denver out of their heads and get a win there.

Their goal this year should be one thing. It is not, "getting to the playoffs". It is not "getting home court". It is not "getting out of the first round". Their goal, plain and simple, should be winning it all.

They need to start Tuesday night against Houston. They need to come out and set the tone for the season, taking it to a decent but over-matched Rocket team. Then, Thursday, when Denver arrives, they need to serve notice the Northwest Title is staying in Portland this year, but this time it will not be shared. Then, on Halloween, they need to go into Houston and accomplish that which eluded them in the playoffs; a win.

No excuses. No saying, "it is a tough place for us to win". Plain and simple, they need to come out and show they are the team to beat this year.

Unlike last year, when they started with a schedule so brutal it ranked as the toughest start since the 60s, Portland has a relatively soft schedule this year.

I am going to come out and flat out say it would be a choke job to lose to Houston on opening night. Denver is good enough to win in Portland, but that is what sets great teams apart from the very good; defending home court. So I will say Portland should win that one, too.

They then have road games at Houston and Oklahoma City. Both are eminently winnable.

They then have a 3 game home stand in which only San Antonio should be tough. then 5 road games, with only the Hornets and Hawks being games Portland should not be favored in. Home versus Detroit, a game at Golden State, then 4 more at home before closing November out at Utah.

It would not be a huge shock for Portland to be 15-4 by the end of November. They are that good.

So yeah, I am going to go out on a limb here. The low end expectation for the Blazers is Conference Finals and it is not out of the realm of possibility for them to win a title. Not next year. Not three years from now. Not after they start losing guys because they cannot afford to keep them around.

This year.

60+ wins, at least Conference Finals is my prediction.

Partying in the streets is my hope. I think they are probably about 5-1 against winning a title, but that is not beyond reasonable to see. Lets get this party started.

Ouch: Blazers get blown away in game one

I was bummed when Coach Nate McMillan switched his line-up, inserting ace sixth-man Travis Outlaw in the Small Forward slot instead of Rookie Nicolas Batum. I like what Outlaw does for Portland on the second unit, and with Lamar Odom coming off the bench for the Lakers, it did not seem it would hurt. Besides, McMillan is a phenomenal coach and his moves usually work out.

In retrospect, it did not really matter who started at Small Forward. On this night, the Lakers were stronger, faster, more aggressive, better shooters, better free throw shooters, better three point shooters, better rebounders...

I was not surprised to see the Lakers win. I was, however, surprised to see Portland forget to show up for the game.  They failed to run the offense, failed to identify who was having a reasonable night, failed to use their teammates...this game was a flat-out train wreck.

With that said, we did learn some things about the Blazers.

But there were some positive signs. First, the good:

-Brandon Roy never lost his poise, even after starting the game 0 for 9. 

- Rudy Fernandez had a spectacular game and showed he will be a force to reckon with.

- Joel Przybilla is still a good rebounder and defender

- Jerryd Bayless and Nicolas Batum have some things they can bring to the table.

Second, the bad: Everything else that Portland normally will do well.

- Missed opportunities:

   * Portland had them, but rained brick after brick after brick when wide open. Even though his final line looked good, Steve Blake missed several open threes at points Portland needed them desperately and might have made it a game.

    * Aldridge struggled against players he normally scorches.

    * Travis Outlaw scored well but was essentially no help on the boards, did not pass well, and stopped fewer people than a yield sign. 

    * Sergio Rodriguez got only 5 minutes. Has Nate lost confidence in him already?

    * The defense. At one point they switched to a zone. It has been years since I saw such a porous zone; at one point there was 1 Blazer defending 3 Lakers. When a well-coached, veteran team with an offense like the triple post sees holes in a zone, bad things happen for the zone.

Overall, this was a disappointing night, not because they lost but because of HOW they lost. There is no shame in losing to the Lakers in L.A., but to not show up was hard to watch.

Fortunately, another game is just around the corner. There is plenty of season left and Portland will right the ship. Roy and Aldridge will shoot better, the team will pass better, and they will be just fine.

And now for the controversial portion of the show. 

Yes, Greg Oden's injury is worrisome. The Blazers have been counting on him. BUT...I am not as sure it is as bad for the team as it will be portrayed. Hopefully it will just be the mid-foot sprain as preliminary x-rays show, we will know more soon. But even if it is more serious, Portland will be fine.

Joel Przybilla is still a good fit for this team in the starting line-up. He defends, he rebounds, he sets picks and he doesn't need the ball. LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy are comfortable with him in the starting line-up. 

Portland's second unit will still be fine with Channing Frye, the Spanish Fly back court, and Travis Outlaw. 

They will have to work harder to win games but they will still win games. Lots of them. And some against good teams.

Naturally, the best-case scenario is to have Oden back and healthy soon. You never want to see an important player go down with injury. But there is no need to panic either way.

So now that game 1 is in the books, let's look forward to game 2 and let the chips fall where they may.

Preview:Opening Night, Portland at Las Angeles

This season comes with high expectations for both teams. The Lakers want to return to the Finals, and this time to close the deal. To do that, they need to win enough games to gain the home court advantage.

Phil Jackson has been around long enough to know a win in October counts just as much in the win total as a win in April. He will not be messing around in this game. Furthermore, he is a great coach. Sure, he has been blessed with great players throughout his runs, but many coaches have. Not all the coaches blessed with great players have come through as well as Jackson has.

On the other hand, Nate McMillan is no slouch. He has done a phenomenal job of molding the Blazers into his vision of a winning team. He continues to work. The dinner he held at his house for his most important players is just one example of the types of things he has done in turning the franchise around and creating huge expectations for this team.

McMillan knows Portland might surprise everyone. To do that, he needs the team to stay together, to have that elusive "chemistry" that turns decent teams into good ones, good teams into great ones, and great teams into Champions.

In the match-up of two great coaches, this time it is McMillan who blinked first. He reversed himself and elected to start Travis Outlaw at the Small Forward after previously announcing it would be surprising Rookie Nicolas Batum.

That is a surprising move. The reasons he had given for starting Batum were manifold and sensible. Outlaw is more productive on the second unit, provides things for that unit that Batum can't, and Batum does the same for the starters.

At the same time, McMillan seldom makes mis-steps. He knows what his team needs and when they need it so let's wait and see how that works out. Meanwhile, coaching seems like a good place to start the game preview.

Jackson has proven for 2 decades that he knows how to coach. He will show that tonight. Greg Oden will have to do some damage before Jackson decides to double him. As a result, the Blazers will be able to start their offense inside with Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge is more likely to draw the double.

Since he saw plenty of double teams last season, he is already used to finding the open man out of the double team. With Steve Blake and Brandon Roy on the perimeter, there should be plenty of open looks. Travis Outlaw tends to hold the ball for a moment after receiving a pass, so when it is his defender who sags, Outlaw needs to make quicker decisions.

If Aldridge finds the open man and the Blazers keep the ball rotating their starting 5 will put up a lot of points. Doubles on Aldridge will also give Oden the chance to get a few rebounds on the offensive glass. Conversely, if the ball stops they will end up taking contested shots against the clock. That will lead to a long night.

At the other end, Jackson has the Lakers buying into Tex Winters' famed "Triangle". When the players move correctly and read the defense right it creates open looks. The Lakers are a veteran team that consistently scores well, particularly at home. The Blazers can cause problems for the Lakers with their exceptional length as long as they stay disciplined.

This is another place starting Outlaw is an interesting choice. The Blazers have been practicing their rotations with Batum in that role. Now they need to adjust for Outlaw. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it certainly is a consideration.

So the teams have similar game plans for their starters: for Portland, pound the ball inside, probably starting with Aldridge but getting Oden some looks. For the Lakers, they certainly want to get some inside looks for Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, but they want those looks to come from more the triple post set-up.

The coach who convinces his players to stick with the game plan longer has the advantage with the starting units.

If the second units were straight-up in minutes played, it could be a very entertaining game as well. Lamar Odom is as good as almost any player in the League. Trevor Ariza is expected to be a contributor, and Jordan Farmar was just brutal against the Blazers last year. That doesn't even address the contributions of a guy like Luke Walton who, while never achieving the things the Big Redhead did, still can hurt teams who forget about him.

At the same time, the Portland backcourt of Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez has the potential to be very explosive. Their second unit looks less intimidating without the high-scoring Outlaw but should be able to hold the line with Channing Frye providing a little scoring punch up front.

Overall, this game will come down to who gets the best production from their mystery people; you know Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum will score for the Lakers. You know LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, and Brandon Roy will score for the Blazers.

You suspect Radmanovich and Farmar will add a few points. And that Fernandez and Oden will get theirs too.

Of course, Oden will be an interesting sub-plot. Nobody really knows how he will play. He could come out aggressive, get Bynum in foul trouble, and have a great night, maybe something like 15 and 10 with a couple of blocked shots.

Alternatively, he could come out hacking, get called for a couple quick fouls, and spend most of the game on the bench with foul trouble. You can say the same thing about Rudy Fernandez.

He could come out and be the player we saw in the Olympics, throwing down dunks on the big men, hitting big treys, and generally scoring at will to be a game-changer. Alternatively, he might get the Rookie syndrome, come out passive, and force Brandon Roy to play big minutes. Against a player with the scoring capabilities of Kobe Bryant, that is a recipe for disaster.

This is a very important game for Portland, even if they lose...which they most likely will. If they can come out, stay close to L.A. and lose by maybe 6 - 10 points, they will build confidence. They will be able to say they just stayed with a Finals quality team on its home floor and, if they had gotten a couple of breaks, maybe walked away with a win.

That confidence will be meaningful for their Friday tilt with the Spurs.

Conversely, if they come out lifeless and get run off the floor, it will be a disaster. It might be just one game in the standings and an opening night at that, but this game matters for the Blazers season.

Look for a game in the low 100s with L.A. winning by 8 - 10 points or so.