Blazers vs Kings; Can Portland Win Another Nail-Biter?

A few hours before game time we got the news; Greg Oden would make his first home start. Personally, I was a little disappointed. I believe he will be a monster and a key cog in the Blazers' Title runs in the next few years. However, at this moment in time, Joel Przybilla just fits better with the starting line-up.

As an aside, a fan at the stadium had a new nickname for Jole that I like even better than "The Vanilla Gorilla" or "The Thrilla", and that would be Joelzilla. Simply awesome. I hereby demand all references to Joelzilla retroactively be changed to reflect this new name which just might have people going deaf from overexposure to awesomeness.

When Joel starts, the Blazers like to start the game by pounding it inside to LaMarcus Aldridge. LA has really developed a strong post game over the past couple of seasons and this establishes him. It also gets Portland rolling with an inside out game that leads to open perimeter looks for Steve Blake, Nicolas Batum, and Brandon Roy. 

Joelzilla does a tremendous job in this line-up of setting picks and, almost as important, not clogging up the lane for LA or for Roy's drives. Oden, by contrast, too often plants himself down low and simply tries to overpower people. The offense bogs down, he picks up offensive fouls, and low scoring becomes the norm.

On this night, the low scoring did not happen. In the first 6 minute stretch, with Oden and Batum on the floor, the Blazers shot out to 14 points and a small lead. However, Oden did not look comfortable at all.

That is okay because this is a move for the long term. Joelzilla is a very good team guy but may not be the right starting center for a team planning to do damage in the playoffs. It will take time to get the new starting line-up acclimated together and what better time to do it than against a lower echelon team with a marginal inside game?

Early on, it looked like Oden or not, the Blazers were going to blow the Kings off the court. Then something strange happened. The Blazers forgot that Stephen Hawes and Brad Miller are atypical big men who can shoot from distance. And shoot from distance they did.

Over and over we yelled at Blazer defenders stuff like, "This just in. Miller hasn't missed a three this half!" as he bombed in another wide open trey. It was so bad that at one point the Blazer free throw percentage was 64 and the King 3-point percentage was 71. That is not a typo. The Kings, well into the fourth quarter, were shooting over 70% from deep.

That is one way to stay in a game when you are being out-rebounded 48-32, commit 22 turnovers, and give up 24 free throws. Credit the Kings with hanging tough.

And even more, the Kings deserve major credit for the defensive job they did in the last minute. Everyone in the building knew Roy was going to get the ball. But the Kings decided he wasn't. John Salmons played tremendous denial defense, forcing the Blazers to go to Travis Outlaw who mustered only an awkward looking drive that never really had a chance of going in and left the Kings with the last shot in a one point game.

Twice already Portland has had to score on their last possession. Well, three times if you count the Houston game as two. The Spurs got a last shot, but that was in transition with no time to run a play.

This was the first time this year Portland had to play defense against a set play with the game on the line. We know they can score to win games. Can they defend to win games?

Somehow, someway they completely disrupted the Sacramento play and Salmons heaved up a wild, tough shot against some pretty intense defense. There is a reason Portland is 9-6 and the Kings are 5-11; the Blazers finished the game stronger at both ends.

Along the way we had a few awesome moments. Roy added yet another highlight reel, spectacular drive. This one started left of the key with a behind-the back dribble to leave on King in his wake, a spin, a shift around one Kings big man and a layin over the late rotation of a second. Simply gorgeous. 

For the night, we learned a lot of things. We learned that one reason Portland will continue to be successful is because guys accept their roles without complaint, continue to do their job, and pull for each other. We learned that even on an off night offensively, Aldridge can contribute on the boards. We learned that even on nights when the bench struggles (14-34 from the field), Portland is going to win.

I guess you could say we learned Brandon Roy is spectacular...but I suspect most of us already knew that.

I expected Portland to win by double digits. They won by one. In a way, that is disappointing. They should beat even an inspired Kings team running without Francisco Garcia and Kevin Martin by more than one. Then again, in a way it is inspiring. As numerous players said in the post-game interviews, a couple years ago Portland would have lost this game. This time they showed poise, they showed maturity, and did what it took to walk away with the W. Ultimately, that is what it is all about.

Blazers, Warriors, and Bulls; Runs are the difference

When Golden State ran out to an early lead and my wife got worried, I replied, "If there is one team in the lead you don't worry about when they get an early lead, it is New York. But if there are two, the second one is Golden State. They will give it all back. We might not win, but we won't get blown out."

There are also teams you definitely do not want to let get out to early double digit leads because they won't let you down. That would be teams like the Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs. In between those extremes are the rest of the league, teams that some nights will give up early leads and other nights will extend them.

To this point, Portland in the last season and a half has tended more towards the former; they gave up a huge lead against Philadelphia early last year that threatened to derail their season. Conversely, they also came back after seeing other teams run out early on.

Against Golden State, both teams had some nice runs but nothing the opposition could not recover from. Ultimately in a hard-fought contest, the Warriors made more plays down the stretch.

Against Chicago, Portland wanted and needed to show they were going to get an early lead and not going to give it up.

It was obvious early the Bulls were not going to get back in this game. When they pulled within about twenty, Coach Nate McMillan took a time-out and instantly the lead ballooned back past the thirty point mark. It is things like that which mattered in this game. Well, those and the Bulls basically quitting.

At one point some Bull made what vaguely appeared to make an entry pass. It would have been more effective if Joakim Noah either A) established position or B) did not have his back to the passer.

Since Noah never saw the pass, there was a defender between passer and intended recipient, and Noah was completely over matched, there was no surprise when the ball rocketed out of bounds untouched. The Blazers ran up court. The Bulls stood there glaring at each other, yipping about whose fault it was.

The Bulls are a team in disarray. At least, they were on this night. They don't play as a team, they don't maximize the talents of their players and don't mask their holes. As a result, when things went poorly early, they never looked like any threat at all.

In many ways, this was a forgettable game. Portland shot out to a 16-3 lead with the Bulls points coming on I believe a Defensive 3 second call and a bad turnover that led to a break-away. In fact, 4 of the first 7 Bulls points came that way.

But Portland did not panic. They continued to play stifling defense, pound the ball inside, rebound, and demonstrate this is a new era in Blazers history. For a couple of years now, the Blazers have been capable of building respectable leads but have not been able to maintain or extend those leads. That is no longer true.

The starters built the lead, the reserves extended it. At one point the Blazer line-up had Greg Oden, Channing Frye, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez on the floor. That is a line-up that could go .500 for the season and has potential All-Stars some day in Oden, Outlaw and Fernandez. And they are all second-unit.

Sure, at some point Oden will probably return to the starting line-up. Sure, Outlaw has not looked his best yet this season. But if you put this line-up on the floor night in and night out to start games, they will put up numbers and win games. They can score inside with Oden, Outlaw, and Fernandez. They can score from deep with any of them but Oden. Rodriguez and Fernandez are above average at getting into the lane and Outlaw is no slouch.

AND THIS WAS THE SECOND UNIT.

That is one reason that, although before the season started I actually predicted their record at this point in the season to be 7-5, I am actually a bit disappointed. Sure, the schedule has been brutal to a historical degree, and will continue to be so for a little while, but Portland has the talent to beat any team on any night and should win far more than they lose.

Their starting line-up is well-suited to contend with any team. They can score from inside or out, they have good wing and interior defenders, and they have strong leadership in Brandon Roy and Coach Nate McMillan.

That has led to the development we have seen. Last season they won a few games nobody believed they could but even at their best, every game was a battle. This year they have the potential to have a few blow-out wins. Certainly there is no night where they should not at least have a chance to win.

It is great as a Blazer fan to see that progression. It is exciting knowing that the Blazers have road games they should expect to win. This weekend is a good example. Friday the Blazers visit Sacramento and then Saturday they are in Phoenix.

Last season, that meant they could win against the Kings but would most likely get rolled by the Suns. This year, it means they SHOULD win against the Kings and have a pretty good chance against Phoenix, though ultimately they may not yet be ready to get that gorilla off their back.

Ultimately, if the NBA is a game of runs as is often asserted, the team that does the best job of withstanding the opponent's runs while maximizing their own will have the best long-term success. Based on the Warriors and Bulls games, the Blazers look to have lots of it in the near future.

Reviewing the Hornets game and previewing the Minnesota game

The Blazers bench looked to be the big advantage Portland had over the Hornets. Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw have both played exceptionally well in the first two games of the road trip. Against New Orleans, however, they combined to go 3-10 from the field for 13 points. Even on a night where Greg Oden showed flashes of what we have been told he can do, that simply is not good enough against a team the caliber of the Hornets.

Even with the essential no-show by their bench studs, Portland was down but one at 77-76 with 2:39 to go. Losing by 5 to New Orleans in New Orleans is hardly embarrassing. And for Fernandez, it is good for the fans to remember he is A) a Rookie and B) human. He will be back and have lots of good nights to go with a few nights like this one.

But the most encouraging thing to come out of the game was seeing "the real Oden". Again and again people who have seen him in practice talk about his speed, his agility, his leaping ability and his explosiveness.

Unfortunately, in games we have not seen that. We have seen a tentative young man, afraid to plant, afraid to jump, afraid to extend. Many fans have expressed disappointment, a position I believe is somewhat unfair. Oden is only 20, too young for that much pressure to be put on him. He should be the guy with the grin cracking his face, enjoying the ride, not wondering if he is letting a city down. He isn't. Give him time and he will be fine.

Well, finally we see a snippet. Watch this block. He comes out of nowhere, gets incredible extension, has unbelievable timing, leaping ability, and explosion. This was a jaw-dropping moment for me.

I remember watching Jerome Kersey chase guys down from behind to block break-away dunk attempts. I have seen Joel Przybilla block dunks, block Yao Ming...okay, less impressive when you remember seeing 5'9" Nate Robinson blocked Ming... but the point is, I have seen a lot of impressive shot-blocks. One of my favorite memories from last season was Outlaw blocking two shots in about a 4 second span. 

This Oden block ranks with any of those. It was so unexpected and showed so much athleticism that suddenly I saw what everyone was talking about. This is a game-changing player. This is a guy who can dominate the paint on both ends of the floor even if no plays are ever run for him. This is a guy who can single-handed lower opponent's shooting percentages 2 or 3 points and keep them out of the paint. This Oden is IMPRESSIVE.

Again, as I said about Fernandez, Oden is young. He is still a rookie and still has a lot of lessons to learn. He will have a lot of bad nights but he will have some nights like this, too where he owns the paint and makes a huge difference just by his presence. 

It was exciting to see. It was a great moment even in a loss.

Tonight against Minnesota, it will be interesting to see if Oden plays. The Blazers are taking it very easy on him, for obvious reasons. No reason to push things so I expect Portland will play without him tonight.

That should mean a few minutes more for Nicolas Batum who was the odd man out last night, though I doubt he will be in the game for much over 20 minutes. Then again, after Brandon Roy going for 42 minutes and LaMarcus Aldridge for almost 40, the bench can expect more minutes overall. Hopefully they are more effective.

Tonight they will be needed to score a bit more. 82 points is not going to win many games. Fernandex and Outlaw need to score 30-40 points between them tonight with Channing Frye adding 8-10. 

They will need to keep Al Jefferson out of the paint and slow volume-shooting Randy Foye without giving Mike Miller a lot of open looks from deep if they want to win. 

They need to win this game. Winning in Orlando was a big win, one that arguably was an upset win. Losing in Minnesota would off-set that and be a big step backwards. Teams like Minnesota are the ones Portland needs to dominate and win moost if not all the games against, whether at home or on the road. 

Portland has the talent to outscore the Timberwolves and be somewhat stifling on the defensive end. They should dominate the boards and if they control the ball, they should walk away with an easy victory.

Of course, they also should have beaten Minnesota handily in Portland and that game required some late-game Roy heroics before they pulled it out. That can be taken one of two ways; either A)  the T-Wolves will believe they can play with Portland, will use that confidence and play over their heads, or B) Portland will use it as motivation to show the T-Wolves who Portland really is.

It should be an entertaining game that Portland walks away from with a win.

Preview:Portland At New Orleans

Last season early on I looked at the rosters and predicted a Portland victory. I was wrong. The Hornets came out and controlled the game start to finish, cruising to an easy win. I was not alone in missing. The Hornets played much better than people expected and had a shot at the Finals.

This year, I look at the rosters and think, wow, Portland has a really good shot at this game. Let's go old school for a moment:

Center
Tyson Chandler v. Joel Przybilla.
Chandler will put up more points than the Vanilla Gorilla and might even have a couple more rebounds but Przybilla will make him work for it. The point differential and rebound differential will scarcely be noticeable.

Power Forward
David West v. LaMarcus Aldridge
On the season West scores almost a point per game more and rebounds three tenths of a board better. Yet last year, against my expectation, he completely dominated this match-up. It would be extremely arrogant of me to proclaim that a fluke, but I also don't believe West is 10 points per game better than Aldridge. At some point this year, Aldridge will break loose against the Hornets and give a monster performance. Meanwhile, expect him to show up better than he did last season.

Small Forward
Peja Stojakovich v. Nicolas Batum
Batum starts but plays only 15 - 20 minutes a night. What minutes those are, though. He is exactly the type of defender that gives Peja fits; he typically stays home on his man, has the long arms to bother shots, and against players like that, Peja typically struggles and shoots a low percentage. Batum pretty much only scores in transition or when his defender drifts away from him, so don't look for huge point totals from either player. Later this season when Martell Webster returns, it will be a different story but that is where it sits for now.

Shooting Guard
Brandon Roy v. Morris Peterson
Let's see, All-Star v. journeyman, budding Superstar v. guy filling minutes. Roy in a landslide. He should dominate in points, rebounds, and assists.

Point guard
Chris Paul v. Steve Blake
Another no contest. All year Portland has struggled with fast guards with good court vision. Sound familiar, Mr. Paul? Paul will have a huge game. Blake can't stay with him and will get absolutely torched.

Bench
James Posey can put in some solid minutes and Rasaul Butler is having a nice year. Rudy Fernandez or Travis Outlaw alone could eclipse their point total without even bringing into the equation Channing Frye, Sergio Rodriguez, or Greg Oden. Yeah, I know...Oden has not looked good so far. Lighten up, people, he has what, 20 minutes of game time? He will have some bad games this year, but he will have some jaw-dropping, did I just see that? type games as well. Teams like the Hornets that have to play their starters big minutes are good candidates for that.

So how does a game like this one go? New Orleans has to build a lead early because if their bench needs to play catch-up against the Portland bench it could get ugly quick. Of course, that is true of a lot of teams...and New Orleans has the starters who can build the lead.

Fortunately for the Blazers, they have the starters who can stay close or even build a lead of their own. It would not surprise me to see, relatively early in the game, Coach McMillan put Batum on Paul.

That could go several ways. A lot of them are good for the Hornets. Batum could pick up fouls in bunches, he could get scorched by Paul, etc. But it could also turn out well if his length and agility cuts off some of Paul's passing lanes, and keep Portland's bigs from having to collapse on Paul and thus the Hornets will have to work harder for their scores. Admittedly, the first possibility is more likely...but for Blazer fans, it is nice to contemplate the alternative.

Meanwhile, Outlaw would probably draw the Peja assignment. That would result in more points for Peja...but also for Outlaw as Peja cannot stop the Outlaw jab-step.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will struggle to contain the Blazers' second unit. Fernandez and Outlaw should have big nights again and their production will be tough for the Hornets to overcome.

Now, after all that, I still think the Hornets come away with the win. There is a reason they went deep in the playoffs last year and will do so again. Paul, West, Chandler, and Stojakovich can all score, and the Blazers have a history of getting guys like Mike James...especially Mike James...going so don't be surprised if he breaks out of his season-long slump with a big night.

Besides those things, Portland is on the 3rd game of a 5 game swing, are young, and don't yet realize they can beat the Hornets. I would not be surprised by a Portland win...but don't expect it.

Rudy Fernandez: The Blazers bench is the difference

Last year tight games meant Portland looked at two things; Brandon Roy showing his other-wordly ability to penetrate virtually any defense or Travis Outlaw going unconscious and hitting everything in sight. With just two options, Portland often struggled to score. 

They were as successful as they were because Roy is so good. He could be the entire pre-game highlight reel package himself with his clutch shots, incredible drives, and sometimes stifling on-the-ball defense. 

They would have won another 5 or 6 games easily if they had had better fourth quarter options. Against the truly great defensive teams they simply could not score down the stretch. A team such as San Antonio would throw Bruce Bowen on Roy while they doubled up on Outlaw and forced Portland to scramble for hurried, contested shots. Same with Phoenix where Raja Bell would take away one option, double teaming would take away Outlaw, and Portland simply was not ready to deal.

Enter Rudy Fernandez. Everyone already knows he is clutch based on his Olympic exploits as well as his entire body of work in the Spanish League. Now they know it in the NBA. 

This is a man with ice in his veins. But it is not just his calmness...he gives Portland a third guy who can create a shot in a must-score situation. He can score on drives, he can score on threes, he is money at the line, and he is most definitely not afraid to take a key shot.

Case in point; Miami trailed 96-88 after Roy hit a jumper over Dwayne Wade with 3:37 to go. But then Portland started acting as if the game was over. They took their time, getting bad shots when they got any shot at all. Wade hit a pair of free throws. He hit a jumper. Now it was a 4 point game and it looked like Portland might give this one back.

Fernandez took the ball, curled into the foul line, spun, and with a hand in his face hit a tough jumper. Boom, suddenly Portland had their confidence back. Had he missed that, the thunderous Wade dunk over the Matador defense of Outlaw on the ensuing possession might have broken Portland's spirit. Instead they ran their offense, Roy found Steve Blake in the corner for a wide-open three and the game was over, even with a few ticks left on the clock.

Scoring is one thing. 10 Blazers scored in the game, including 4 in double figures. But there are times when scoring is tough, when it takes a certain mind-set to be able to create and make that shot. Dwayne Wade has that and it showed when Miami won their Title in 2006. LeBron James has it and that is why the Cavaliers made the Finals. Kobe Bryant and Paul Pierce have it, and we all know the Celtics and Lakers are the favorites to be in the Finals again.

Now Portland has 3 guys who have that. Who do you defend in the fourth quarter of a close game? Want to stick your lock-down defender on Roy and your second best on outlaw? Okay, let me introduce you to Fernandez. And mix and match those names...pure poison. I would hate to be the coach trying to stop them.

All of which brings me to the main point. Portland is rightfully mentioned as one of the deepest teams in the League. They have 11 guys who either have proven in the past they are contributors or have shown it this year. But unlike some years, among that depth is a world of scoring.

Guys like Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster, Steve Blake, Channing Frye, Greg Oden, and Sergio Rodriguez are all nice to have. On any given night, any one of those can drop 20 points on opponents.

But it is the LaMarcus Aldridge, Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw group that really is the heart and soul of the team. They can drop 30 on you game after game for a week when they are going good. 

Lots of teams can roll out 7 or 8 guys who can roll for 20+ points  on a given night. But very few teams have more than one who can do it consistently over a several game stretch. That is one thing that makes Portland so scary and not just this year. They are a team that may no longer be "on the rise" but already risen.

When the early season schedule was released, they looked like a team that could easily start 1-5.  Instead they ran .500 and built a lot of confidence. They then went on the road and knocked off a very good Orlando team. 

Following that up, they went in and beat a Miami team riding a red-hot Dwayne Wade, a talented Rookie in Michael Beasley, and some solid players who can play off them. The game showed the difference between a team like Portland and one like Miami. 

There is a reason Miami is 4-4. At crunch time, Portland was able to throw out multiple scorers. More to the point, they were not afraid to put a Rookie on the court in crunch time because he is a Rookie who delivers. Miami, on the other hand, left Michael Beasley on the bench for the final 4:16  in favor of Chris Quinn. Beasley was the second leading scorer for the Heat with 14.

Meanwhile, Portland had Roy, Fernandez, Outlaw, Blake and Aldridge; only Blake failed to achieve double digits. More to the point, Outlaw and Fernandez are bench players who are good enough that Nate McMillan has confidence enough to put them in the game in a clutch situation and is not upset when Fernandez takes key shots. 

This is not a knock on Beasley who certainly looks like he will be an excellent pro and may even win Rookie of the Year. But the fact that Portland will start a Rookie (Nicolas Batum) and finish the game with another speaks volumes about how dangerous this team will be for years to come. They don't need big minutes from their starters, and that will matter at the end of the year.

How is that important?

Portland bench: 104.25 minutes, 47 points, 16 rebounds, and some clutch shots.

Miami Bench: 88.50,  26 points, 14 rebounds, no clutch shots. Portland was able to keep Roy slightly  fresher than Wade for the end of the game and that led to their win.

There are a lot of factors that go into winning. Portland is showing they have those, game after game. They are also showing improvement. Instead of losing leads late, they are closing strong; 31-21 in the 4th quarter against Miami, 34-26 against Orlando, against Minnesota was 28-23 (and 54-46 for the second half).

When teams have the talent to start fast, a bench that can bring them back when needed or extend leads at other times, and learns to close out games, they are going to sport a gaudy record in the long run. Look out world, Rudy Fernandez, Brandon Roy, and the Portland Trailblazers are here and are going to win more games than most teams this year. 

So start the chant now. Rudy! Ruudy! Ruuudy! Ruuuudy! Rrrrruuuuuuuuudddddddyyyyyyyy!

1.9 seconds: long enough for a tie, 2 lead changes, and redemption

After the Rockets one the tip they went inside to Yao Ming for a short lay-up attempt. Somehow, someway Joel "The Thrilla" Przybilla blocked it. A quick outlet pass, a streaking LaMarcus Aldrdige, and the Blazers were ahead 2-0 on that most rare of plays; a Blazer fast break. It was excellent and entertaining.

Even more entertaining was the next Houston possession; they went to Tracy McGrady against Rookie Nicolas "Boom Boom" Batum who forced McGrady into a tough shot. At the other end, the Blazers went inside to Aldridge who hit a beautiful post-up move to give Portland a 4-0 lead and set the tone for the night.

The first half was about Aldrdge and Batum. Aldridge could not be stopped on those occasions Portland remembered they had him on the floor. Meanwhile, Batum completely stifled McGrady.  That was key because at the other end, Ron Artest was putting to rest recent rumors he was "washed up" as a lock-down wing defender.

He put the clamps on Brandon Roy almost completely. It was a terrible, terrible half for the Natural as he turned the ball over, threw up awkward, low-percentage shots, and just generally looked completely out of sorts.  

Fortunately for the Blazers, they got huge contributions from Travis Outlaw, Rudy Fernandez, and even a few points from Batum. Defensively, they were doing a great job. Artest and McGrady were non-factors for the first half offensively and if not for Luis Scola, the game might have been out of hand.

Portland looked dominant almost everywhere; they had a 10+ rebound advantage, more blocked shots, more steals, better shooting percentage...they just struggled with turnovers and free throws as the line kept Houston not only in the game but in great shape, trailing just 52-51 at the break.

The second half was a different story. Early, Batum was doing a nice job on McGrady and when Outlaw was put on him, McGrady hit a couple easy buckets to get going. When Batum returned, McGrady was in a rhythm and the early-game shut-down was over. For the rest of the night McGrady would terrorize the Blazers. 

Still, Portland led most of the second half, usually in the 5 - 7 point range. Early in the 4th quarter they took their biggest lead of the game, 10, with just less than 10 minutes left. A quick 5-0 Houston surge had Portland reeling and it would be a dogfight.

That highlights one of the early-season struggles for Portland. They are not closing out games. They had excellent chances to win in both Phoenix and Utah but gave back second half leads both times. This team needs to find the killer instinct. They need to go to what works; feed Aldridge until he is stopped instead of perimeter passing and against the clock off-balance heaves. They do not yet have the great 4th quarter intellect or killer instinct. 

So when Houston tied it at 90, things looked bleak. It looked like Portland would give away a game they should have won handily. But Houston is too good to lay down and die. 

Artest finished a miserable regular session for Roy by stripping him as he went up for a shot and the ensuing Roy kick-ball gave the Rockets one last shot in regulation.

The first overtime had Portland fans nervous. Suddenly, they were struggling not just to score but to even get reasonable looks at the basket while giving up dunks to Carl Landry. When Aldridge missed 2 free throws in a tie game, many of the faithful started leaving the building. "Best fans in the League" indeed. Stay true, you weasels. Stick it out to the end.

McGrady capped what was ultimately a 30 point effort to give the Rockets a 2 point lead. But Aldridge came back to hit two pressure free throws to tie it. When McGrady was forced into a low-percentage shot, it seemed Portland would have a chance to win it. 

Roy dribbled into a double team, took a turn-around fall-away jumper from a weird angle in an area of the floor he seldom works from. At that point, he was 4-16 from the field. It was not the shot we wanted to see...until it tickled the twine with 1.9 seconds left. Game over!

Well, not really...Houston inbounded from mid-court. Inexcusably, Portland let them make as perfect an entry pass to the post as you will ever see. Ming went to shoot a turn-around and Roy gave him a love-tap across the arms. Clearly a foul, but a soft one...and Ming hit the shot and free throw. Groan!8/10ths of a second left and now Portland is down 1.

The inbound went to Roy way outside the 3 line, he turned, gathered, shot...nothing but net. Unbelievable! The place went nuts. We were slapping fives, hugging, maybe a kiss or two. What a finish!

And this was big not just for the finish but because it was a game Portland HAD to have. They were 1-3. Sure, all 5 teams they faced at first won54+ games last year and were in the playoffs. Sure, 3 of those games were on the road. 

But this Portland team, even without Oden, is that good. .500 with that schedule will be acceptable (after they beat Minnesota Saturday, which they will by double digits). It shows this team is ready to compete. They held serve, winning the home games. They played tough on the road. 

It would have been nice to get Utah without Deron Williams, but as the League is discovering, Utah is a pretty good team even without him. Would they win 50 without him? Probably not. But they still have plenty of talent, and thinking "no Williams = no chance to win" is just foolish. Portland was one of 6 teams that took their shot and missed it. No shame there.

I was nervous prior to the season. If Portland could finish .500 after 6 games, I believed and still do that they will win about 53 games this season based on the schedule, their talent, and their expectations. That last trey by Roy might mean a 5 or 6 game difference by the end of the season because had he missed, Portland probably wins no more than 46 or 47 games. Confidence means that much.

In closing, I have a new mission in life. In light of Przybilla's nickname "the Thrilla", I have begun doing the little Thrilla dance every time he blocks a shot or scores on a dunk. I encourage all Blazer fans to do likewise. That means you...

Blazer Preview:November

Portland should split their first two games and head to Phoenix at .500. Phoenix has a new look this year. Long gone are the Matrix and Mike D'Antoni. In their place are the Big Cactus and Coach Terry Porter.

Porter of course is much loved in Portland for his great run with the late 80s, early 90s Blazers of Clyde, Terry, Jerome, Duck, Buck and Uncle Cliffy...names that run so large in the Blazers pantheon that no other words are needed. I could probably just type #22, #30, #25, #00, #52, and #3 and most Blazer fans would have been able to identify them that way.

Now the most talented Blazer team since that one faces the heart and soul of those teams as the opposing coach. All early reports say it will be no easier to beat him now than it was when he was running those fast-breaking machines for the Blazers.

Shaquille O' Neal and Amare Stoudemire are a powerful front line. Oden will have to work to stay out of foul trouble but even if he has issues, Joel Przybilla has year after year done a better than average job of defending O'Neal. Always one of the dirtiest players in the League, O'Neal made himself even more unpopular with Blazer fans with his nationally televised cheap shot where he deliberately used the ball to drive Joel's head into the floor. Hopefully Karma catches up to O'Neal this year and he enjoys the health his actions deserve.

Oden, Aldridge, Przybilla and Frye will have plenty to do to keep up with O'Neal and Stoudemire. Last year Stoudemire got in Aldridge's head early and completely disrupted his game. Later in the season, Aldridge made some adjustments and showed he can play with Stoudemire...though I doubt anyone would question that Stoudemire is superior.

In addition, Steve Nash is the type of guard that gets the Blazers in trouble. Steve Blake cannot stay in front of Nash...not that too many guys out there can...and his penetration leads to a lot of open shots for Grant Hill, Raja Bell, and of course the big two. As a result, even the new look Suns should have good offensive nights against Portland early in the season.

At the other end of the floor, Brandon Roy has shown he can score on Bell, Aldridge is much improved, and as will be typical for this season, the Phoenix bench will not be able to keep up with the potent Blazers bench night in and night out, though on occasion they are certainly talented enough to cause problems.

This game is just too early. At some point this season Portland will win one in Phoenix, but not this one. The Suns are still too good and Portland needs to develop a defensive stopper at point. Jerryd Bayless may be that guy someday but is not there yet, nor are Sergio Rodriguez or Rudy Fernandez.

Sitting at 1-2, next up for Portland is another tough, tough match-up, the Utah Jazz. Utah is stacked and only looking to get better. Mehmet Okur is the type of Center who will cause Oden the most problems as he prefers to hang out around the perimeter. Conversely, if Okur can't figure out how to defend Oden he could find himself on the pine with large numbers of personal fouls which would minimize his offense. Even without Okur, the Jazz have a potent offense with Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams, sharp-shooting Kyle Korver, the rejuvenated AK47 Andrei Kirilineko, and so forth. In Utah the Jazz are always tough.

Last year a depleted Blazers squad snuck in a win in Utah. I would love to see it happen again and they certainly are talented enough to do so but will not be ready to do so yet. Utah will win to drop the Blazers to 1-3.

They then come home for a back to back against a very talented Houston squad. From a pure talent standpoint, Houston might have the best team in the league. They can beat you so many ways. Yao Ming and Ron Artest can beat you with interior scoring and defense, Tracy McGrady is one of the most talented offensive players, and Shane Battier, Rafer Alston, Luis Scola, Luther Head...they have a deep, good bench that can hurt you.

Fortunately for the Western Conference, they have seldom put it together all at once, their 20 something game winning streak from last season excepted. As a result, they lose a lot of games they should win and seldom go deep in the playoffs.

This will be a stern test for Portland. Despite the difficulty of their schedule, a 1-4 start would be disastrous. They will come out hot and pull out their second win.

2 nights later Minnesota comes to town. It is Minnesota, enough said. Portland goes to 3-3.

Next up is a 5 game that swings East through Orlando, Miami, New Orleans and Minnesota before coming back to face the Warriors. That is a tough road trip.

Orlando found the right chemistry last year to turn themselves into one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Oddly, they proved vulnerable at home and often looked better at home. That is an anomaly I do not expect to see repeated.

The beginning of a long road trip is traditionally hard on teams. Orlando will be hard on teams at any point this season. Include the Blazers in that as they fall to 3-4.

Miami is next up. They have the makings of a good team. Dwayne Wade is pretty much a good team on his own. The Matrix Shawn Marion is a great 2-way player who can disrupt offenses at one end and defenses at the other. Michael Beasley seems like he has the makings of a great scorer. However, those three are not enough to hold off a hungry Blazer team. Portland will break through on the road in their 5th attempt. They are certainly capable of winning before that, even against the Lakers, Suns, Jazz or Magic. It is entirely possible they will have done so but on this night they will definitely get a win.

The Hornets know to improve on last year they will have to hold serve against the up and coming teams. They are well set up to do it. Their front line of Tyson Chandler and David West is well set up to deal with Portland. Peja Stojakovich provides the zone-busting outside shooting and Chris Paul is one of the best in the game at creating offense for other guys. It doesn't hurt that he himself can score almost at will.

The Hornets bench overall is not particularly strong but they do have guys like Mike James who, when they get hot, can carry a team for short stretches. Against the Blazers James tends to get hot. Pencil in the Hornets to win this one.

Closing out the trip will be Minnesota. Though the Wolves are much improved and playing at home, they simply don't have enough firepower to match the Blazers and the young Portland team will go to .500 for the trip.

With the confidence of a couple wins they head to Golden State. The Warriors picked up the talented Corey Maggette but effectively lost Pietrus, Boom Dizzle, Matt Barnes, and Monta Ellis, at least for this section of the season. The Warriors will still be a very dangerous team. Stephen Jackson and Maggette are both capable of putting up monster numbers and, with the departure of so much scoring punch, will do so with great frequency this year. Unfortunately for their fans, the flexibility and endless waves of talent the Warriors used to be able to throw at opponents has been reduced to a much less dangerous squad. They are just good enough to tantalize...they can win on any given night and even are capable of blowing out top-flight teams. But they are also capable of losing to any team, including the Thunder that stole their mascot's name. Portland will take this one, finish the longest road trip of the season at 3-2 and stand at 6-5, over .500 for the first time all year.

They then are home for a back to back. Having a back to back after a 5 game road trip almost turns it into a 6 game road trip. Still, glad to be home, the Blazers should handle the Jekyll and Hyde Bulls. It remains to be seen if they will return to their winning ways from 2 years ago or if they have become the middle country version of Isaiah's Knicks. Either way, Portland is just plain better. The guard corp for Portland is at least as deep as Chicagos and better all the way around and the front court of Chicago is not in the conversation with Portland's. Even at the end of a road trip Portland should win.

After their lengthy one night return home Portland heads back out on the road after one day for back to backs at Sacramento and Phoenix. The Kings are just plain bad. They have Martin, Miller, and not much else. It is going to be a long, long year in Sacramento. That is unfortunate. I wish they had cashed one in when they had Bibby, Divac, Webber, Stojakovich, and those fun, fun Adelman teams. They are closer to making the NHL playoffs than the NBA playoffs with this roster. Portland picks up a road win.

Back to back in Phoenix, the 7th road game in 8 games, you can pencil this one in as unusual: a game the Blazers get blown out.

Back home, this time for 3: Sacramento, another easy win, then Miami and New Orleans. Miami should be another W. New Orleans...hmm. That will be a tough one. But Portland wants to make the playoffs this year. To make the playoffs in the Western Conference you will have to win most of your home games and about half your road games. This should be an epic, titanic struggle. At some point this year New Orleans has a good shot at breaking through in Portland and this is the time. Last year the Rose Garden was a huge factor in their success and 2008-09 will be no different, but they won't run the table.

Portland closes on the road in Detroit. Year after year Detroit rolls out their talented cast and does very well. But Portland matches up extremely well. I don't believe the hype about Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace getting older. They play a very smart, team oriented game that relies on being in the right place more than on sheer athleticism.

That is not to slight the athletic abilities of the Pistons. They have the speed, leaping ability and power to compete with anyone. They simply use it in ways that mean their game will not see a big drop off when their legs go. Just as Reggie Miller was a lethal player long past his anticipated shelf life, these guys have a style that will extend their careers and effectiveness.

Beyond that, they are a well-balanced team. They can score inside or out. Tayshaun Prince is one of the most under rated players in the NBA. They are just plain a good team. How they only brought in one title is a curiosity that astounds me.

And yet I think Portland will find a way, in Detroit, to win. The balanced attack, the development of the Spanish Fly second unit, the way Portland can run at teams in waves will combine to produce a road victory to close out the month.

For November the Blazers should end up 10-6 and be sitting 11-7 overall. For the brutality of their schedule, that is a pretty good record.

A few of these games might flip-flop; it would not surprise me to see Portland win in Orlando but lose in Miami, for example, or beat the Hornets and lose to the Pistons. But they should be sitting pretty close to 11-7 and be well set up going into December.