Preview:Kings at Blazers

The Kings and Blazers are two teams heading in similar directions. The Kings, once an almost-respectable 5-8 have dropped their last two games, leaving them ahead of only about 7 teams, record-wise. Meanwhile, Portland is 8-6 and just one game off the pace set by Denver.

However, Portland has a tough schedule coming up while Denver looks to having six of their next nine at home and among the road games are teams such as the Clippers, Timberwolves, and Kings. In other words, while Portland is likely to be looking up at Denver by four or five games within the next couple of weeks as the schedule is favorable for Denver to have a big winning streak whereas Portland will be fortunate to go 3-3 in their next six, five of which are on the road in places like Detroit, Toronto and Boston.

That makes the home game against the Kings into a key game. Portland is coming off a disappointing performance in Phoenix. Defensively, the Blazers performed very well and did everything they needed in order to have a chance to win. Unfortunately, the offense disappeared.

Part of that can certainly be credited to the improved Suns defense. How much of it is credited to their defense as opposed to how much of it is credited to Phoenix being in the Blazers' collective psyche is an open question.

In the first half, Portland was raining open threes at the basket from all angles. Typically reliable shooters like Steve Blake and Rudy Fernandez had multiple looks so wide open that not only were the shots uncontested, there was not even a defender within five feet of the shooters. They combined to miss every open look.

Portland let the Suns off the hook. Had they hit the shots they normally hit, Portland would have been up by 10 - 15 points. The offensive explosion of the third quarter would not have mattered so much.

The Suns are much too good to not take advantage of such a gift. They took advantage and won a game that Portland had a very real shot at. That makes it perhaps even more unlikely that Portland will break through in Phoenix this year and also had adverse affects on the outlook of Greg Oden.

His match-up with Shaquille O'Neal drew a lot of attention. Frankly, Oden was not ready for it. He was called for some pretty questionable calls, particularly in light of the nonsense O'Neal gets away with. As typical for him, he got off a couple of cheap shots that would have gotten someone like Ron Artest of Stephen Jackson a multi-game suspension, but in his case only one of them even drew a foul call and a technical.

If I ever get around to it, I would love to write a piece about the dirtiest players in the League: guys who regularly take cheap shots, commit vicious fouls akin to unnecessary roughness type things, or just hack and grab. A front line of O'Neal, Tyson Chandler and Bruce Bowen, teamed with Rip Hamilton would be a pretty good start.

The difference between the Bowen/Hamilton type players and the O'Neal/Chandler ones is the first group do their work with their hands, primarily to keep their opponent from getting position or scoring well. The second group I have watched time and again throw elbows or other shots clearly designed to injure. I was shocked the first time I saw Chandler play live and saw all his after-the-whistle work away from the ball. He does not get noticed because he does it away from the play but I instantly put him on my list and watching him since, he is second only to O'Neal.

O'Neal of course has well-publicized tendencies in that regard which are passed off by his fans and defenders as, "Well, he gets fouled all the time." Uh, right. There is no difference between say...someone getting run over by a tank reaching around and trying to strip the ball, getting called for a foul, and the actions of O'Neal against Joel Przybilla.

Last year after he knocked Przybilla to the floor, O'Neal "tripped" and deliberately moved the ball, trying to drive it into Joel's face with all O'Neal's weight behind it. It was deliberate, malicious, and should have earned a long, long suspension. In the most recent game he again took an after the whistle shot that could easily have been construed as a punch. This one at least earned him a technical, but it also allowed him to grow ever more violent as the game progressed without further fouls being called.

I look forward to the day when, after his basketball career, he gets in the ring with guys who think like he does...Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture, Brock Lesnar...and we see how he does without the referees allowing him almost complete carte blanche.

But back to Oden; after the game, it was clear he knew he had performed poorly. He struggled to score and, more importantly, did not rebound or defend well. Portland will be just fine if he does not score a great deal but they desperately need strong performances defensively and on the boards from Oden if they intend to compete against the better NBA teams.

How will Oden respond to it? The Kings game might provide one answer. The answer has to do much more with Oden than it does the Kings. Physically, the Kings are way over-matched. Oden can gain position almost at will against guys like Brad Miller, Spencer Hawes and Mikki Moore.

The Kings big men play a different game, more inclined to snipe from mid or long range than they are to mix it up under the basket. They are the type of players Oden should put up fairly nice numbers against...if his head is in the game. If not, he could skip his rotation, be drawn to the perimeter where the Kings can use their superior speed and agility, and he could end up in foul trouble.

So item #1 on the Blazers agenda is making sure Oden is able to put the Phoenix game behind him. Everyone has bad games. The good players have bad memories and go out to play the game in front of them instead of worrying about yesterday's news. We do not know how Oden will react to that yet.

Item #2 is winning the games they should win. Home games against the Kings are definitely a game they should win. Even if Sacramento comes in with a chip on their shoulder after the beat-down Portland laid on them last week, Portland should win this game and win it handily.

They have a better inside game than the Kings, they have a better outside game, and better defense. For the Kings to win, they have to play well over their normal game while limiting the Blazers to playing a very poor game.

In the NBA, that is always a possibility but not a probability. Portland should follow the same formula they used in the second half at Sacramento. Start the ball inside and either let LaMarcus Aldridge go to work in the post or, if he is double-teamed, rotate the ball to the open shooter on the perimeter for the easy look at the three-ball.

This game should be a good confidence booster for Portland after the rough Suns game and give them a nice boost before heading on the road for their second long East Coast trip of the year. Look for a double digit win and some free chalupas for the crowd.

And lots of chances to do the "Thrilla" dance every time Przybilla dunks or blocks a shot.

Reviewing the Hornets game and previewing the Minnesota game

The Blazers bench looked to be the big advantage Portland had over the Hornets. Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw have both played exceptionally well in the first two games of the road trip. Against New Orleans, however, they combined to go 3-10 from the field for 13 points. Even on a night where Greg Oden showed flashes of what we have been told he can do, that simply is not good enough against a team the caliber of the Hornets.

Even with the essential no-show by their bench studs, Portland was down but one at 77-76 with 2:39 to go. Losing by 5 to New Orleans in New Orleans is hardly embarrassing. And for Fernandez, it is good for the fans to remember he is A) a Rookie and B) human. He will be back and have lots of good nights to go with a few nights like this one.

But the most encouraging thing to come out of the game was seeing "the real Oden". Again and again people who have seen him in practice talk about his speed, his agility, his leaping ability and his explosiveness.

Unfortunately, in games we have not seen that. We have seen a tentative young man, afraid to plant, afraid to jump, afraid to extend. Many fans have expressed disappointment, a position I believe is somewhat unfair. Oden is only 20, too young for that much pressure to be put on him. He should be the guy with the grin cracking his face, enjoying the ride, not wondering if he is letting a city down. He isn't. Give him time and he will be fine.

Well, finally we see a snippet. Watch this block. He comes out of nowhere, gets incredible extension, has unbelievable timing, leaping ability, and explosion. This was a jaw-dropping moment for me.

I remember watching Jerome Kersey chase guys down from behind to block break-away dunk attempts. I have seen Joel Przybilla block dunks, block Yao Ming...okay, less impressive when you remember seeing 5'9" Nate Robinson blocked Ming... but the point is, I have seen a lot of impressive shot-blocks. One of my favorite memories from last season was Outlaw blocking two shots in about a 4 second span. 

This Oden block ranks with any of those. It was so unexpected and showed so much athleticism that suddenly I saw what everyone was talking about. This is a game-changing player. This is a guy who can dominate the paint on both ends of the floor even if no plays are ever run for him. This is a guy who can single-handed lower opponent's shooting percentages 2 or 3 points and keep them out of the paint. This Oden is IMPRESSIVE.

Again, as I said about Fernandez, Oden is young. He is still a rookie and still has a lot of lessons to learn. He will have a lot of bad nights but he will have some nights like this, too where he owns the paint and makes a huge difference just by his presence. 

It was exciting to see. It was a great moment even in a loss.

Tonight against Minnesota, it will be interesting to see if Oden plays. The Blazers are taking it very easy on him, for obvious reasons. No reason to push things so I expect Portland will play without him tonight.

That should mean a few minutes more for Nicolas Batum who was the odd man out last night, though I doubt he will be in the game for much over 20 minutes. Then again, after Brandon Roy going for 42 minutes and LaMarcus Aldridge for almost 40, the bench can expect more minutes overall. Hopefully they are more effective.

Tonight they will be needed to score a bit more. 82 points is not going to win many games. Fernandex and Outlaw need to score 30-40 points between them tonight with Channing Frye adding 8-10. 

They will need to keep Al Jefferson out of the paint and slow volume-shooting Randy Foye without giving Mike Miller a lot of open looks from deep if they want to win. 

They need to win this game. Winning in Orlando was a big win, one that arguably was an upset win. Losing in Minnesota would off-set that and be a big step backwards. Teams like Minnesota are the ones Portland needs to dominate and win moost if not all the games against, whether at home or on the road. 

Portland has the talent to outscore the Timberwolves and be somewhat stifling on the defensive end. They should dominate the boards and if they control the ball, they should walk away with an easy victory.

Of course, they also should have beaten Minnesota handily in Portland and that game required some late-game Roy heroics before they pulled it out. That can be taken one of two ways; either A)  the T-Wolves will believe they can play with Portland, will use that confidence and play over their heads, or B) Portland will use it as motivation to show the T-Wolves who Portland really is.

It should be an entertaining game that Portland walks away from with a win.

Preview:Portland At New Orleans

Last season early on I looked at the rosters and predicted a Portland victory. I was wrong. The Hornets came out and controlled the game start to finish, cruising to an easy win. I was not alone in missing. The Hornets played much better than people expected and had a shot at the Finals.

This year, I look at the rosters and think, wow, Portland has a really good shot at this game. Let's go old school for a moment:

Center
Tyson Chandler v. Joel Przybilla.
Chandler will put up more points than the Vanilla Gorilla and might even have a couple more rebounds but Przybilla will make him work for it. The point differential and rebound differential will scarcely be noticeable.

Power Forward
David West v. LaMarcus Aldridge
On the season West scores almost a point per game more and rebounds three tenths of a board better. Yet last year, against my expectation, he completely dominated this match-up. It would be extremely arrogant of me to proclaim that a fluke, but I also don't believe West is 10 points per game better than Aldridge. At some point this year, Aldridge will break loose against the Hornets and give a monster performance. Meanwhile, expect him to show up better than he did last season.

Small Forward
Peja Stojakovich v. Nicolas Batum
Batum starts but plays only 15 - 20 minutes a night. What minutes those are, though. He is exactly the type of defender that gives Peja fits; he typically stays home on his man, has the long arms to bother shots, and against players like that, Peja typically struggles and shoots a low percentage. Batum pretty much only scores in transition or when his defender drifts away from him, so don't look for huge point totals from either player. Later this season when Martell Webster returns, it will be a different story but that is where it sits for now.

Shooting Guard
Brandon Roy v. Morris Peterson
Let's see, All-Star v. journeyman, budding Superstar v. guy filling minutes. Roy in a landslide. He should dominate in points, rebounds, and assists.

Point guard
Chris Paul v. Steve Blake
Another no contest. All year Portland has struggled with fast guards with good court vision. Sound familiar, Mr. Paul? Paul will have a huge game. Blake can't stay with him and will get absolutely torched.

Bench
James Posey can put in some solid minutes and Rasaul Butler is having a nice year. Rudy Fernandez or Travis Outlaw alone could eclipse their point total without even bringing into the equation Channing Frye, Sergio Rodriguez, or Greg Oden. Yeah, I know...Oden has not looked good so far. Lighten up, people, he has what, 20 minutes of game time? He will have some bad games this year, but he will have some jaw-dropping, did I just see that? type games as well. Teams like the Hornets that have to play their starters big minutes are good candidates for that.

So how does a game like this one go? New Orleans has to build a lead early because if their bench needs to play catch-up against the Portland bench it could get ugly quick. Of course, that is true of a lot of teams...and New Orleans has the starters who can build the lead.

Fortunately for the Blazers, they have the starters who can stay close or even build a lead of their own. It would not surprise me to see, relatively early in the game, Coach McMillan put Batum on Paul.

That could go several ways. A lot of them are good for the Hornets. Batum could pick up fouls in bunches, he could get scorched by Paul, etc. But it could also turn out well if his length and agility cuts off some of Paul's passing lanes, and keep Portland's bigs from having to collapse on Paul and thus the Hornets will have to work harder for their scores. Admittedly, the first possibility is more likely...but for Blazer fans, it is nice to contemplate the alternative.

Meanwhile, Outlaw would probably draw the Peja assignment. That would result in more points for Peja...but also for Outlaw as Peja cannot stop the Outlaw jab-step.

Meanwhile, the Hornets will struggle to contain the Blazers' second unit. Fernandez and Outlaw should have big nights again and their production will be tough for the Hornets to overcome.

Now, after all that, I still think the Hornets come away with the win. There is a reason they went deep in the playoffs last year and will do so again. Paul, West, Chandler, and Stojakovich can all score, and the Blazers have a history of getting guys like Mike James...especially Mike James...going so don't be surprised if he breaks out of his season-long slump with a big night.

Besides those things, Portland is on the 3rd game of a 5 game swing, are young, and don't yet realize they can beat the Hornets. I would not be surprised by a Portland win...but don't expect it.

1-1 Portland at 1-1 Phoenix

Coming off the emotional one point home win against the Spurs, the Blazers face another team that has been a tremendous nemesis. Suns games have been an exercise in futility for the Blazers recently. It isn't just that they have lost 9 straight...spanning more than the length of Brandon Roy's career...it is that they have not even completed.

At least games with the Spurs had been close. Phoenix, however, tends to blow Portland out. A lot of it started with Amare Stoudemire.

Early in the season last year he had gotten inside the head of LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge had some extremely ineffectual games as a result and other Blazers shot poorly. Late in the season LA showed some improvement and it seems a match-up he is now ready to face. Of course, it is not the same Phoenix team that Portland will visit.

Interestingly enough, Joel Przybilla seems to do an above average job on Shaquille O'Neal. Despite the fact O'Neals' numbers looked good overall against the Vanilla Gorilla, those numbers were largely skewed by one game where Joel played poorly and O'Neal went off. 

As a general rule, Przybilla makes O'Neal take a lot of shots to get his points and does a nice job on the boards. He does not turn the match-up into a draw by any stretch of the imagination, but he generally at least makes the points coming out of the center into tough ones.

Joel's ability to match up one on one with the Big Cactus allows the other Blazers to stay with their men instead of fading low to double team. Unfortunately, they historically have still been lit up. 

Steve Blake struggles with guards who penetrate. He showed last night against Tony Parker that little factoid has not changed. Steve Nash figures to have a field day against him. The penetration of Nash is what will lead to open shots for Amare Stoudemire, Raja Bell, Grant Hill, and the other Phoenix shooters. 

It does not help that Stoudemire is quicker and stronger than Aldridge. He already scores easily and when that ability is amplified by the break-downs of the Blazer perimeter defenders, Stouedmire figures to have some big, big nights.

The Suns also are switching up their defensive structure under former Blazer great Terry Porter. It remains to be seen how completely they will buy into his system, but so far this season the points they are giving up seem to be down a bit. In Bell they have a superior wing defender, and in Stoudemire and O'Neal they have some serious rebounding potential. 

That makes it imperative for Portland to shoot a good percentage, something they have yet to accomplish this season. Roy looked like he was starting to get his groove back against the Spurs, as was Aldridge. This is a good sign as the Phoenix defenders are similar to the Spurs who matched up with them.

Bell is not as good a defender as Bruce Bowen, so in theory Roy will be able to get some good looks at the basket as well as create some open shots for his teammates. Aldridge will have to figure out ways to keep Stoudemire from poking the ball away as he did so effectively last year, but if LA can do that, he should score the ball well.

Meanwhile, the need to guard Roy and Aldridge should put a lesser defender on Travis Outlaw. This can be good or bad. It is bad if Outlaw falls in love with his jump shot and starts bombing away from the perimeter.

To be sure, Outlaw can be deadly when he is on. His jab step/fall back jumper is incredibly tough even to contest, much less block. Unfortunately, he gets overconfident and goes to that move to often from a little to deep on the floor. 

Conversely, when he penetrates good things tend to happen for Portland. The defense has to scramble which creates some holes for offensive rebounding and often leads to foul problems for the big men. Outlaw has the speed, agility, and quickness to create havoc when he drives.

In a similar way, Rudy Fenandez has the potential off the bench to cause problems for Suns defenders. If he is hitting his shot he will be a nightmare and a difference maker. If not, it could be a long night for Portland.

The other wildcard is Nicolas Boom Boom Batum. He got about 21 minutes at home against the Spurs. However, Coach McMillan has shown a real reluctance to play him on the road. Will that continue or will he get some minutes? If he gets minutes, don't be surprised to see McMillan revert to the ploy from last night of putting Batum on Nash.

While Parker did get past Batum a couple times, the length, instincts, and surprisingly good footwork of Batum did cause Parker more problems than anyone else the Blazers put on him. If Batum can slow Nash, it will give Portland a chance.

Not much of one, though. Phoenix is still a top team in the League, is playing at home, and is facing a team that has yet to show they are anywhere near the road team that they are home team. An average Phoenix effort still beats a good Portland effort.

For Portland to win they need a good shooting percentage, to have at least 3 scorers over 15 and several more close to double figures, they need to limit the Suns breaks and keep Nash from going off with his penetration.

It could happen, I just don't think the Blazers are ready yet. Look for a Phoenix win.

Preview:0-1 San Antonio at 0-1 Portland

The situation could be considered bleak. 0-12. O for Brandon Roy's career. o for LaMarcus Aldridge's career. Projected starting Center and Rookie of the Year hopeful center Greg Oden out. Sharpshooting projected Small Forward Martell Webster out. Perennial Championship contender San Antonino comes to town for the Blazers' home opener.

Yet there are some positives, as well. Just as Portland has lost Oden and Webster to injury, the Spurs have lost all-world Manu Ginobli and starting Center Fabricio Oberto. The Spurs looked vulnerable in their home opener loss to Phoenix. Their defense showed holes that were not there in the past.

On the other hand, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker look willing and able to step into the gap and provide the points that would normally come from Ginobli. Oberto is a great energy guy but not going to greatly affect the statistics one or the other. The Spurs have other advantages as well.

San Antonio has a better bench than people give them credit for. Kurt Thomas is a guy who does not put up huge numbers. He just puts up numbers that exceed what his playing time should show and does them in key situations. A lot of what he does never shows up in the box score. He will keep alive a ball on the offensive boards and the rebound will get credited to Ime Udoka who ends up with it. Or he will nudge a guy's hip on the way by, knocking the ball loose or the defender out of position. Thomas is the epitome of a role player because he finds his role, fills it, and doesn't need the spotlight. Nor is he the only role player help.

Udoka can stroke the three and play above average defense. Jacque Vaughn doesn't play huge minutes or put up big numbers (note the trend there) but doesn't need to...he just needs to spell Parker at key moments and that is what he does.

On the other hand, the Blazer bench has the potential to see some big numbers. Sergio Rodriguez has stretches where every time he passes the ball it creates an assist. Rudy Fernandez can score in bunches. Channing Frye can provide a surprise boost in points and rebounds when he gets time and his head is in the game. Of course, they are hurt by the move of Travis Outlaw to the starting line-up, which usually would be the headline for the game if not for other major events.

Naturally, the main storyline for tonight for the national media...and, to be fair, Portland media...is the Greg Oden injury. I call bollocks.

I am not going to argue the Blazers are better off long-term without Oden than with him. That would just be stupid. He is going to provide some great moments, some big numbers at times, and make a difference for this team. But I am going to argue they are still good enough to win without him. And that includes games like this one against San Antonio.

To be sure, Oden would have an advantage on the box in this game. Duncan will no doubt be watching LaMarcus Aldridge. That match-up alone is enough of a treat for Blazer fans. Here we have the past and present of the League, perennial All-Star and MVP candidate Duncan...matched up with young gun probable future All-Star Aldridge. Both forwards can post up, shoot well from mid-range, and play the pick and roll. Aldridge runs the floor a little better...not hugely relevant on a Blazer team that runs as seldom as this one...and Duncan is a better defender, though his expertise tends more towards off the ball help than matching up one on one.

Both players are a pleasure to watch because they are so skilled. Neither one simply runs over the defender. Instead, they use their quickness, agility, and intelligence to make good basketball moves. I have never been a fan of the "bull him over and score while he lays on the ground and picks up a foul" game guys like Shaquille O'Neal play. I would much rather watch skilled guys like Duncan, Aldridge, Chris Paul, etc. play. Still, there are people who prefer the power game that Oden would provide.

Oden has that ability to just overpower people that I am not a huge fan of watching. With Oberto out, he would theoretically have an even bigger advantage in this game...though I would argue that a crafty veteran such as Thomas could cause him a lot of problems.

Be that as it may, with no Oden Portland will switch up their offensive theory a little bit. Instead of pounding it in to Oden and seeing what happens, they will involve more people. Aldridge should get a few more looks on the box, Brandon Roy will have a bit more room to operate, and if Bruce Bowen is on Roy, Travis Outlaw will have some lanes.

This figures to be a low scoring affair where chalupas are not part of the conversation. The Spurs are very good at keeping things to their pace. With that in mind, Portland can withstand some cold-shooting stretches. Conversely, so can the Spurs. Look for a game in the 80s or 90s where both teams are within striking distance with a couple minutes to go.

I anticipate Aldridge and Roy bouncing back from brutal nights in L.A. If Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw provide anything close to what they did in that game, the Blazers should have enough firepower to end their 0-12 skid against the Spurs, particularly in light of Ginobli missing the game.

For the Spurs to win they need everything to click; they need their defense to be on, Duncan and Parker to light up the score board, and a couple other guys step up into maybe the low teens.

This game might be more important for Portland than it is for San Antonio. The Spurs are a quality veteran team that has started slow before. They know it is a lengthy season and they will win their share of games by the end. One game won or lost will not alter their confidence.

Portland, on the other hand, faces what is almost a "must-win" game. Next up are games at Phoenix and Utah, the Jazz game being the front end of a back to back with the second game home against Houston. If Portland loses this game they face the probability of starting the season 0-4 or even 0-5. That hole would be pretty close to too much to climb out of. Conversely, if they can beat the Spurs, even if they lose to the Suns and Jazz, they stand a decent chance of parleying the home court advantage into a win against Houston.

This assumes, of course, that they follow the "young team" trend of needing confidence. Success breeds success, failure breeds failure, and so forth. So in theory, Portland should come out with a sense of urgency a little beyond that shown by the Spurs.

If it comes out in practice as panic, the situation, both the game and season, could get ugly. Portland could have another 34% shooting night, get blown out on their home floor and head on the road a broken team.

I just don't believe guys like Nate McMillan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Steve Blake, and Brandon Roy will allow that. Portland will play well tonight and pull out the win.

As an aside, one thing that will have no bearing on the game but is a fun marketing ploy would be tonight's "red out". Fans are being encouraged to wear red to the game. Because, you know, the "blackout" worked so well for...was it Georgia that got rolled? So if you are a Blazer fan, wear red, show up to the game, support the team, and cheer Oden when he is shown.

Remember, he is a 20 year old kid, he has given this city a lot of hope and excitement. Don't ride the guy, just enjoy what he brings to the floor when he is there.

Preview:Opening Night, Portland at Las Angeles

This season comes with high expectations for both teams. The Lakers want to return to the Finals, and this time to close the deal. To do that, they need to win enough games to gain the home court advantage.

Phil Jackson has been around long enough to know a win in October counts just as much in the win total as a win in April. He will not be messing around in this game. Furthermore, he is a great coach. Sure, he has been blessed with great players throughout his runs, but many coaches have. Not all the coaches blessed with great players have come through as well as Jackson has.

On the other hand, Nate McMillan is no slouch. He has done a phenomenal job of molding the Blazers into his vision of a winning team. He continues to work. The dinner he held at his house for his most important players is just one example of the types of things he has done in turning the franchise around and creating huge expectations for this team.

McMillan knows Portland might surprise everyone. To do that, he needs the team to stay together, to have that elusive "chemistry" that turns decent teams into good ones, good teams into great ones, and great teams into Champions.

In the match-up of two great coaches, this time it is McMillan who blinked first. He reversed himself and elected to start Travis Outlaw at the Small Forward after previously announcing it would be surprising Rookie Nicolas Batum.

That is a surprising move. The reasons he had given for starting Batum were manifold and sensible. Outlaw is more productive on the second unit, provides things for that unit that Batum can't, and Batum does the same for the starters.

At the same time, McMillan seldom makes mis-steps. He knows what his team needs and when they need it so let's wait and see how that works out. Meanwhile, coaching seems like a good place to start the game preview.

Jackson has proven for 2 decades that he knows how to coach. He will show that tonight. Greg Oden will have to do some damage before Jackson decides to double him. As a result, the Blazers will be able to start their offense inside with Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge is more likely to draw the double.

Since he saw plenty of double teams last season, he is already used to finding the open man out of the double team. With Steve Blake and Brandon Roy on the perimeter, there should be plenty of open looks. Travis Outlaw tends to hold the ball for a moment after receiving a pass, so when it is his defender who sags, Outlaw needs to make quicker decisions.

If Aldridge finds the open man and the Blazers keep the ball rotating their starting 5 will put up a lot of points. Doubles on Aldridge will also give Oden the chance to get a few rebounds on the offensive glass. Conversely, if the ball stops they will end up taking contested shots against the clock. That will lead to a long night.

At the other end, Jackson has the Lakers buying into Tex Winters' famed "Triangle". When the players move correctly and read the defense right it creates open looks. The Lakers are a veteran team that consistently scores well, particularly at home. The Blazers can cause problems for the Lakers with their exceptional length as long as they stay disciplined.

This is another place starting Outlaw is an interesting choice. The Blazers have been practicing their rotations with Batum in that role. Now they need to adjust for Outlaw. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it certainly is a consideration.

So the teams have similar game plans for their starters: for Portland, pound the ball inside, probably starting with Aldridge but getting Oden some looks. For the Lakers, they certainly want to get some inside looks for Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, but they want those looks to come from more the triple post set-up.

The coach who convinces his players to stick with the game plan longer has the advantage with the starting units.

If the second units were straight-up in minutes played, it could be a very entertaining game as well. Lamar Odom is as good as almost any player in the League. Trevor Ariza is expected to be a contributor, and Jordan Farmar was just brutal against the Blazers last year. That doesn't even address the contributions of a guy like Luke Walton who, while never achieving the things the Big Redhead did, still can hurt teams who forget about him.

At the same time, the Portland backcourt of Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez has the potential to be very explosive. Their second unit looks less intimidating without the high-scoring Outlaw but should be able to hold the line with Channing Frye providing a little scoring punch up front.

Overall, this game will come down to who gets the best production from their mystery people; you know Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum will score for the Lakers. You know LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw, and Brandon Roy will score for the Blazers.

You suspect Radmanovich and Farmar will add a few points. And that Fernandez and Oden will get theirs too.

Of course, Oden will be an interesting sub-plot. Nobody really knows how he will play. He could come out aggressive, get Bynum in foul trouble, and have a great night, maybe something like 15 and 10 with a couple of blocked shots.

Alternatively, he could come out hacking, get called for a couple quick fouls, and spend most of the game on the bench with foul trouble. You can say the same thing about Rudy Fernandez.

He could come out and be the player we saw in the Olympics, throwing down dunks on the big men, hitting big treys, and generally scoring at will to be a game-changer. Alternatively, he might get the Rookie syndrome, come out passive, and force Brandon Roy to play big minutes. Against a player with the scoring capabilities of Kobe Bryant, that is a recipe for disaster.

This is a very important game for Portland, even if they lose...which they most likely will. If they can come out, stay close to L.A. and lose by maybe 6 - 10 points, they will build confidence. They will be able to say they just stayed with a Finals quality team on its home floor and, if they had gotten a couple of breaks, maybe walked away with a win.

That confidence will be meaningful for their Friday tilt with the Spurs.

Conversely, if they come out lifeless and get run off the floor, it will be a disaster. It might be just one game in the standings and an opening night at that, but this game matters for the Blazers season.

Look for a game in the low 100s with L.A. winning by 8 - 10 points or so.